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Transcript of APEC EGCFE Workshop March 21-23, 2005 The Grand Hotel, Chinese Taipei Cooperation & Competition in...
APEC EGCFE Workshop APEC EGCFE Workshop March 21-23, 2005March 21-23, 2005
The Grand Hotel, Chinese TaipeiThe Grand Hotel, Chinese Taipei
Cooperation & Competition Cooperation & Competition in Asia-Pacific LNG Marketin Asia-Pacific LNG Market
Dr. Boyoung KIMKOGAS
2
Yesterday Nowadays Tomorrow
in Asia-Pacific LNG Market
CONTENTS
3
76.65
10.9338.31
10.05
22.74
5.36
48.3
12.36
20.0730.59
8.2
3.7
Source : bp Source : bp
World NG consumption: 2.08b ton International Trade 510m ton
(25 % of total consumption) Trade by Pipeline NG : 370m ton Trade by LNG : 140m ton - Japan : 60.0m ton (43%) - Korea : 19.0m ton (14%)
in 2003
World Natural Gas Trade
4
World LNG Trades
5
1st rush hour
2nd rush hour
Source : Clarkson Research Studies
When the 3rd Rush hour of LNG consumption will be ?
Coming-up the New Era in LNG Market
when?
1,00
0㎥
ship
s
6
The Restriction of Expanding LNG Market
40.0
46.0 MJ/nm3
43.0
Om
an (45.4)
Abu
Dh
abi (44.6)
Qatar (44.3)
Malaysia (44.7)
Au
stralia (44.4)
Indon
esia (43.9)
Algeria (41.8)
Trin
idad & T
(40.8)
Alaska (40.2)
Middle-East AsiaMiddle-East Asia South-East Asia South-East Asia
LNG Quality High Calorie
Low Calorie
Africa & AmericaAfrica & America
Nigeria (43.9)
7
2000 2005 E 2010 E 2015 E
Japan 53.4 58.3 67.8 75.6
Korea 15.0 25.2 38.1 48.4
Taiwan 4.3 5.9 9.0 13.5
India - 2.0 10.5 16.0
China - - 7.1 13.0
Asia (total)Asia (total) 72.7(71.4%)72.7(71.4%) 95.6(63.7%)95.6(63.7%) 132.5(48.9%)132.5(48.9%) 166.5(44.7%)166.5(44.7%)
France 9.0 8.8 11.8 14.0
Spain 6.9 15.5 18.8 35.2
U.K - 2.6 19.9 27.2
Europe (total)Europe (total) 23.9(23.5%)23.9(23.5%) 37.9(25.3%)37.9(25.3%) 72.7(26.9%)72.7(26.9%) 103.0(27.7%)103.0(27.7%)
US East Coast 4.9 15.0 45.0 70.0
US West Coast - - 5.0 10.0
Mexico - - 11.3 15.8
America (total)America (total) 5.1(5.0%)5.1(5.0%) 16.5(11.0%)16.5(11.0%) 65.5(24.2%)65.5(24.2%) 103.0(27.7%)103.0(27.7%)
TOTALTOTAL 101.8(100%)101.8(100%) 150.0(100%)150.0(100%) 270.6(100%)270.6(100%) 372.5(100%)372.5(100%)
World LNG Demand : Forecasting
Unit : mtpa
Source : LNG Global 2004, Deutsch Bank
8
2000yr 2000yr2000yr2010yr 2010yr2010yr
23.9
72.772.7
132.5
5.1
65.5
Unit : mtpa
Europe Asia America
World LNG Demand : Forecasting (cont.)
9
- Consumers : Japan, Korea, Chinese Taipei U.S.A, EU (Spain, France, Italy, U.K)- Producers : Indonesia, Malaysia Qatar, Algeria, Australia, Russia (The Far East)
Perspectives of the great Shifting in LNG market
10
Tsunami in Asia-Pacific LNG market
11
LNG Demand 1990 1995 2000 2004E 2005E 2006E 2007E 2010E 2015E04-07
CAGR
USA 1.7 0.4 4.9 12.7 15.0 18.7 27.7 50.0 80.0 30%
JAPAN 32.4 43.5 53.4 57.7 58.3 60.2 62.1 67.8 75.6 2%
Chinese Taipei 0.7 2.5 4.3 5.9 6.4 6.9 7.4 9.0 13.5 8%
KOREA 2.1 7.1 15.0 20.2 25.2 27.8 30.4 38.1 48.4 15%
Source : LNG Global 2004, Deutsch Bank North America ; R/P=9.7
LNG Demand : US, Japan, Chinese Taipei and Korea
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1990 1995 2000 2004E 2005E 2006E 2007E 2010E 2015E
USA JAPAN Chinese Taipei KOREA
12
US ; The Master plan of LNG Terminals
The seismic center of Tsunami in Asia-Pacific LNG Market
13
Source : The future relationship between LNG pricing in the Asia-Pacific and the Atlantic-Mediterranean, PFC Energy
Average
$5.28/mmBTu
Average
$6.00/mmBTu
The price gap ; US East Coast vs. US West Coast
14
Source : Poten & partners, LNG in World Markets
Volumes of spot LNG and NYMEX gas price
15
The price gap ; Henry Hub vs. LNG into Japan
Source : The future relationship between LNG pricing
In the Asia-Pacific and the Atlantic-Mediterranean,
PFC Energy
$9.13 $7.42
16
Source : Han Wonhee, Quarterly Review of Gas Economics & Management (KOGAS)
“Market share of LNG Spot Trade”
Trend : The Market share of LNG spot trade
17
4.6mtpa
0 mtpa
17.8mtpa
53.9 mtpa 50mtpa
7.1 mtpa
38.1mtpa
67.8 mtpaChina’s Total consumption of China’s Total consumption of
NG will be 85mtpa in 2010NG will be 85mtpa in 2010 USA’s Total Consumption ofUSA’s Total Consumption ofNG will be 550mtpa in 2010NG will be 550mtpa in 2010
LNG consumption in 2002
LNG consumption in 2010
0 mtpa
11.3mtpa
The Future of Asia-Pacific LNG market
Tsunami
5.3 mtpa
9.0 mtpa
Winter SeasonWinter Season
18
Relationship among Asia-Pacific Economies
Cooperation & Competition