APAC Market for Neighbourhood Electric Vehicles
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Transcript of APAC Market for Neighbourhood Electric Vehicles
Analysis of APAC Market for Neighbourhood Electric Vehicles
Vijay Rao, Research ManagerAutomotive & Transportation
4th April 2011
2
Agenda
Definitions – Battery Electric Vehicles
Market Overview
Market Life Cycle Analysis
Market Structure of NEVs
Key Components of NEVs
Global Electric Vehicle Demand Analysis
NEV Market Breakdown By Region
Market Share of OEMs
Threat Analysis for Market Entrants
Conclusions and Recommendations
3
Definitions – Battery Electric Vehicles
Neighbourhood Electric Vehicles (NEVs)
NEV is a US DOT
classification for
vehicles weighing less
than 3,000 lbs (GVW)
and having a top speed
of 25 mph. NEVs are
generally restricted to
operate on streets with
a speed limit of 35 mph
or less.
A city car is a
European classification
for small and light
vehicles intended for
use in urban areas
although capable of
operating in mixed city-
highway environment.
In Japan, city cars are
called kei cars.
These vehicles have
an internal combustion
engine (ICE) or other
secondary source
connected in a series
configuration to a
generator to supply the
batteries. The drive
range and speeds are
comparable to IC
engine vehicles.
High-Performance Electric Vehicles (HPEVs)
These are sporty
PHEVs or battery
electric vehicles with
top speeds exceeding
100 mph and driving
range exceeding 100
miles. The price of
these vehicles is
expected to approach
or exceed $100,000.
GEM e2, e4, e6; REVA
G-Wiz i; ZENN; ZAP
and others
Smart EV, Th!nk City,
BMW Mini and others
Chevy Volt, Opel
Ampera and othersTesla, Venturi Fetish,
Lightning GT, etc
City Electric Vehicles
(CEVs)
Toyota Prius PHEV,
Ford Fusion PHEV, etc
Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEVs)
A plug-in hybrid
electric vehicle (PHEV)
has an internal
combustion engine
(ICE) with a motor
along with a battery
connected in parallel to
the ICE. They are
generally regarded as
full hybrids with bigger
motor/battery and a
plug to recharge.
Battery Electric Vehicles: Electric vehicles (EVs) use electric motors instead of an internal combustion engine (ICE) to propel a vehicle. The electric power is derived from a battery of one of several chemistries including lead acid, nickel metal hydride (NiMH) and lithium-ion (Li-ion).
Extended-range
EVs (E-REVs)
4
• Most countries in APAC Region are in the process of building recharge infrastructure for EVs. In most regions, this is a joint effort of OEMs, electric utility companies and the government
• The market is dominated by small and mid size OEMs manufacturing NEVs primarily for exports to high growth US and European markets. Chinese OEMs dominate the global NEV market by supplying all categories of NEVs
Market Overview - Low emissions, lesser vibrations, suitability for short distance driving, low maintenance and recharge cost are the key drivers for market growth
Neighbourhood Electric Vehicle Market: Market Overview (APAC), 2010
• The market for NEVs in APAC is still at introductory stage. Several OEMs in the region such as Reva, CT&T, Kandi Technologies have launched NEV models for various applications. Several new models from the above OEMs are also in the pipeline
• Low vehicle speed, limited range on one charge and competition from other alternate fuel vehicles are the key market restraints affecting growth
• Limited consumer acceptability, Lesser range and top speed, competition from higher speed electric vehicles, limited recharging infrastructure, absence of legislations and limited subsidies and incentives are key industry challenges
• Prices of NEVs in APAC range from USD 2,223 for Tara Tiny to USD 16,000 for CT&T e-zone. Running cost ranges from 0.50 cents/km to 6 cents/km
• NEVs in APAC have both commercial and passenger applications. China, South Korea and Philippines, NEVs are emerging as a suitable transport medium for government utility vehicles, patrol vehicles and commuter shuttle transport vehicles respectively. In India and Japan, NEVs are used as personal transport.
Source : Frost & Sullivan
• Presently more than 75% of NEVs in APAC work on rechargeable lead acid batteries and DC electric motors.
5
Market Life Cycle Analysis - The NEV market is at the introductory stage in APAC and is expected to reach high growth phase by 2015
2001 2009 2020 20502040Introduction Growth Maturity Decline
• Early NEV Adopters:
REVA (now Mahindra REVA) ,
India
• Growing Electric Vehicle Adopters:
Qingdao Greentec, China, Kandi Technologies, China, CT& T South Korea, Eu Auto Technology, Hong Kong
Tara International, India, Zerosports Motor Co., Japan.
• High Growth Market in APAC : China, India and South Korea
• Threat due to City Electric Vehicles with Safety Features
City electric vehicles are capable of running up to 150 km/hr with safety features.
• Saturation and Decline of NEVs:
Fight for market share retention and difficult to expand market share significantly and growth of hybrid and fuel cell vehicles.
Neighbourhood Electric Vehicle Market: Life Cycle Analysis (APAC), 2001-2050
Source: Frost & Sullivan
6
Market Structure of NEVs
Neighbourhood Electric Vehicle Market: Market Structure (APAC), 2010
Utilities
China State Grid, KEPCO TEPCO, BSES, Delhi
Charging Station Manufacturer
ECOtality Inc, Hero Electric, Electrotherm
OEMs
CT&T, Kandi Technologies, Mahindra Reva, Qingdao Green Tec, Shifeng Auto
Assemblers/ Integrators
PhUV, Philippines, Club Car, Australia
Government
China, South Korea, India, Philippines, Japan , Australia
Component Suppliers (Battery)
Trojan Battery,Exide, SK Energy
Source : Frost & SullivanThe company logos mentioned are only for descriptive purpose
7
Lead Acid A storage battery in which the electrodes are grids of lead containing lead oxides and electrolyte is dilute Sulphuric Acid
Lead Acid AGMThis is a low maintenance Lead Acid Battery (also known as VRLA) which features a thin fibre glass felt that holds the electrolyte in place like a sponge preventing the battery from leaking if inverted or pierced
Lithium-ionBattery in which a lithium-ion moves between the anode and cathode. During discharge the lithium-ion moves from the anode to the cathode and from the cathode to the anode while charging
DC motor A motor which runs on direct current
(DC) electricity
AC motor A motor that is driven by an
alternating current.
Key Components of NEVs - Batteries and Electric Motors used in NEVs
• Presently more than 75% of NEVs in APAC use rechargeable lead acid batteries and DC electric motors.
• Some companies such as Reva, CT&T and EuAuto Technology have plans to offer the option of lithium-ion Batteries in their NEVs.
Neighbourhood Electric Vehicle Market: Battery Systems Used (APAC), 2010
Neighbourhood Electric Vehicle Market: Electric Motors Systems Used (APAC), 2010
Source : Frost & Sullivan
8
Global Electric Vehicle Demand Analysis – Potential Sales of 2.2 M in F&S Scenario by 2017
Electric Vehicle Market: Sales Forecasts Scenario Analysis (World), 2009-2017
Scenario's 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172020
(% of Total Car Sales)
Optimistic Scenario
4,500 23,100 123,800 289,500 665,000 1060,400 1,714,500 2,220,300 3,202,000 10-12%
F&S Scenario 4,500 16,500 72,000 193,000 453,000 792,000 1,287,500 1,736,000 2,203,000 5-7%
Conservative Scenario
4,500 13,500 35,600 82,500 150,300 195,100 300,500 450,000 670,000 3-4%
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan
9
NEV Market Breakdown By Region - China is likely to be the biggest market for NEVs both in terms of production and sales
Others include Australia, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines
China India Korea Japan Others0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Production Sales
Unit
Ship
ments
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan
Neighbourhood Electric Vehicle Market: Market Breakdown by Region (APAC), 2009 - 2016
2009
12,455
Production of NEVs in APAC Countries, 2016 151,990
2016
India and China to account for more than 50% of the NEV production in 2016
10
Market Share of OEMs
Neighbourhood Electric Vehicle Market: Market Share of OEMs (APAC), 2009 and 2016
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan
Country China India South Korea Japan Rest of APAC
Volume Sales 2009 2016
400-450 300-350 30-50 100-150 80-100
9,500-10,000 10,000-12,000 7,500-8,000 1,000-1,500 800-1,000
Volume Production 2009 2016
2,000-2,500 5,550-6,000 4,000-4,500 100-150 130-150
45,000-50,000 35,000-40,000 25,000-30,000 2,000-2,500 1,500-2,000
Number of Players (2016) 8-10 3-5 2-3 1-2 10-15
Number of Models (2016) 10-15 5-7 4-5 3-4 15-20
Number of Model Variants (2016) 15-20 10-15 8-12 5-8 25-35
Leading OEMs
Kandi Technologies, CMEC Suzhou,
Green Tec
Mahindra Reva, Tara
International
CT&T, AD Motors Takeoka Eu Auto, PhUV
etc
11
Threat Analysis for Market Entrants
Neighbourhood Electric Vehicle Market: Threat Analysis (APAC), 2010
Threats Analysis
Technical and speed limitations of NEVs restricts their growth to niche markets
• NEVs have a maximum speed of 50 mph (80kmph) and can only run 50 to 70 kms on one charge and hence are suitable only for short distance city driving. They are hence targeted at niche markets such as for senior citizens, new drivers and as second car for running errands
EV charging infrastructure is still under development in APAC
• EV charging infrastructure in APAC is still under the development stage. OEMs such as BYD and Chery in China, Toyota, Nissan, Mitsubishi, and Fuji Heavy Industries in Japan and Hero Electric in India are working together with the government and utility companies to develop charging stations
No specific legislations promoting the uptake of NEVs
• Unlike countries like US, Canada, UK and Germany which have legislations encouraging the use of NEVs, APAC does not have any specific legislations in this regard
Source : Frost & Sullivan
12
Threat Analysis for Market Entrants
Source : Frost & Sullivan
Threats Analysis
Vehicle cost continues to be high due to limited uptake
• Due to the limited uptake of NEVs in APAC, the prices of NEVs continue to be at par with small size but higher speed petrol cars, further limiting their consumer appeal
Offer of incentives or subsidies on purchase of NEVs yet to be implemented
• Though APAC governments have announced plans to offer incentives and subsidies to purchasers/users of eco-friendly EVs including NEVs , they are still under implementation stage and they are likely to be available to buyers only in the short to medium term
Competition from higher Speed EVs from reputed OEMs and competition from plug-in hybrids and fuel cell cars.
• Reputed OEMs such as Toyota, Nissan, BYD are in the process of introducing EVs which offer all the advantages of NEVs together with a higher speed at par with petrol cars. There is also competition from plug-in hybrids (Toyota Prius) and fuel cell cars
Neighbourhood Electric Vehicle Market: Threat Analysis (APAC), 2010
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Conclusions and Recommendations
China, India and South Korea to be production hubs for NEVs in APAC exporting to markets such as Europe and North America
Market players to push governments to develop legislations for NEV use in APAC
OEMs to form international partnerships to exchange information and experience to promote the development and growth NEV markets in APAC
OEMs to continue to work in tandem with governments, suppliers and electricity Companies to develop EV infrastructure
Focus on developing commercial applications of NEVs as urban commuter transport, fire trucks, garbage, patrol vehicles
Neighbourhood Electric Vehicle Market: Recommendations (APAC), 2010
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For Additional Information
Alice ChiaCorporate CommunicationsAsia Pacific+603 6204 [email protected]
Vijayendra RaoResearch ManagerAutomotive & [email protected]