AP Statistics Section 10.1 C Determining Necessary Sample Size
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AP Statistics Section 10.1 C
Determining Necessary Sample Size
Consider the confidence interval for the mean of a population where is known. The
user chooses the confidence level and the margin of error automatically follows from this
choice.
nzx
Ideally, we would like both high confidence and a small margin of error. High
confidence says that our method almost always gives correct answers. A small
margin of error says that we have pinned down the parameter quite nicely.
An equivalent expression for the margin of error is . Since
the expression has z* and in the numerator and in the denominator, the margin of
error gets smaller when:
n
z
n
z* gets smaller. This happens when _______________________
So there is a trade-off between the confidence level and the margin
of error. To obtain a smaller margin of error from the same data, you must be willing to
accept lower confidence.
smaller gets C
gets smaller. Remember, is a fixed value in the population and
can’t be changed.
n gets larger. Now this is something that we can control. For example, in order to cut the
margin of error in half, we need to take ___ times as many
observations.4
A wise user of statistics never plans data collection without planning the inference
at the same time. To determine the sample size n that will yield a confidence interval for a population mean with a specified margin of error, m, set the
expression for the margin of error to be less than or equal to m and solve for n.
Example: Researchers would like to estimate the mean cholesterol level of a particular variety of monkey that is often used in laboratory experiments. They would like their estimate to be within 1 mg/dcl of blood of the true value of at a 95% confidence level. A previous study involving
this variety of monkey suggests that the standard deviation of cholesterol level is about mg/dcl. What is the
minimum number of monkeys needed to generate a satisfactory estimate?
5
z 96.1
1
n
z 1E
1)5)(96.1(
n
n8.9
n8.9
n04.96
97n
Always round up to the next whole number when finding n.
It is the size of the sample that determines the margin of error.
The size of the population does not influence the sample size we need
- as long as the population is at least 10 times as large as the
sample.
CAUTION! CAUTION!
The data must be an SRS from the population.
Nonresponse and other practical problems can frustrate choosing an
SRS.
The margin of error in a confidence interval covers only random
sampling errors. The margin of error indicates how much error can
be expected because of chance variation in randomized data
production.
There is no correct method for inference from data haphazardly
collected or biased.
Different methods are needed for different designs. The CI formula
isn’t correct for probability samples more complex than an SRS. There are correct methods
for other designs.
Outliers can distort results. Outliers can strongly influence ___,
which can have a large effect on the confidence interval.
x
The shape of the population distribution matters. Examine your
data carefully for skewness and other signs of non-Normality.
You must know the standard deviation, , of the population.
Finally, you must understand what statistical confidence does not say. Recall our confidence interval of (107.8, 116.2) for the mean IQ score
for all BCU freshmen. We are 95% confident that the mean IQ score for all BCU freshmen lies
between 107.8 and 116.2. That is, these numbers were calculated by a method that gives
correct results in 95% of all possible samples.
We cannot say that the probability is 95% that the true mean falls between 107.8
and 116.2. No randomness remains after we draw one particular sample and get from it one particular interval. The true
mean either _______________ between 107.8 and 116.2.
not isor is
The probability calculations of standard statistical inference
describe how often the __________ gives correct answers.process