“Northern New England Climate: Past, Present, and...
Transcript of “Northern New England Climate: Past, Present, and...
Weather instantaneous or synoptic measurements
Climate time / space average
Basic Concepts
“Northern New England Climate: Past, Present, and Future”
Weather - the state of the air and atmosphere at a particular time and place : the temperature and other outside conditions (such as rain, cloudiness, etc.) at a particular time and place
temperature (average energy, ˚C) humidity (water vapor, g/kg) pressure (force/area, mb = 100 N/m2) winds (circulation, m/s) cloud cover (liquid/solid water) precipitation rate (mm/day)
Measurements of the following variables are used to quantify weather
Climate is often defined as ‘average weather’, usually described in terms of the mean and variability of temperature, precipitation and wind over a period of time (typically 30 years).
Climate is also characterized by the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events
A Definition of Climate
hourly (synoptic)
daily mean daily range (diurnal cycle) monthly mean annual mean annual range (seasonal cycle)
air temperature data
The average, or mean, of a meteorological variable is:Climate defined
And, the variance (a measure of how far a set of numbers is spread out:
average daily temperature
30-year annual average = 51.7˚F
average daily temperature
30-year annual average = 51.7˚F
average daily temperature
average monthly temperature
internal dynamics example -
persistent ridging over western North
America
internal dynamics example - persistent ridging over western North America
average monthly temperature
external forcing example - Mt. Pinatubo
What Factors Are Involved In Changing Earth’s Climate?
Examples of external forcing include: solar variations volcanic eruptions changes in atmospheric composition
The climate system evolves over time under the influence of its own internal dynamics and due to changes in external forcing.
IPCC, FAQ 1.3, Figure 1
✦ by changing the amount of incoming solar radiation
✦ by changing the fraction of solar radiation that is reflected back to space
✦ by altering the longwave radiation from Earth back towards space
Radiative forcing of global climate
IPCC, FAQ 2.1, Figures 1 & 2
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Greenhouse gases increase dramatically since industrial revolution
IPCC, FAQ 2.1, Figure 1
Long-term record of globally averaged annual temperature
+1.2˚F/century
Long-term record of annual average temperature for Massachusetts
Long-term record of annual average precipitation for Massachusetts
Long-term record of annual average temperature for Vermont
Long-term record of annual average precipitation for Vermont
Long-term record of annual average temperature for Maine
Long-term record of annual average precipitation for Maine
Lake ice-out
dates
Average ice-out dates for lakes in Maine come about two weeks earlier than they did in the late 19th century
The length of the growing season in Maine has increased over the last 150 years
-40 to -30ºF -30 to -20ºF -20 to -10ºF -10 to 0ºF 0 to 10ºF
Plant hardiness zones have shifted northward over the past few decades
River flow
Over the past 50 years flow has tended to increase in early spring and decrease in late spring/early summer
Model projections of globally averaged surface temperature for
three emissions scenarios
NCAR climate model
Future climate (21st century)
✦ it has changed ✦ we see the impacts ✦ some of the change thus far is attributable
to human activity ✦ northern New England, like the rest of the
planet will experience significantly more change in the future
✦ the change impacts things that we care about
✦ we would like to predict future climate change
Observational Record of Global and Regional Climate: Key Facts
Summary ✦ Greenhouse gas warming is evident
across northern New England
✦ It will continue, at an accelerated rate
✦ Precipitation across the state is likely to increase, less snow, more rain
✦ Climate will be more variable
Questions?