“4 Keys to Trend Trading Tech Analysis” · “4 Keys to Trend Trading Tech Analysis ... Keltner...

“4 Keys to Trend Trading Tech Analysis”

There is no Holy Grail of Trading—Only Tools & Rules

DisclaimerU.S. GOVERNMENT REQUIRED DISCLAIMER – COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING HAS LARGE POTENTIAL REWARDS, BUT ALSO LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. YOU MUST BE AWARE OF THE RISKS AND BE WILLING TO ACCEPT THEM IN ORDER TO INVEST IN THE FUTURES AND OPTIONS MARKETS.

DON’T TRADE WITH MONEY YOU CAN’T AFFORD TO LOSE. THIS IS NEITHER A SOLICITATION NOR AN OFFER TO BUY/SELL FUTURES OR OPTIONS. NO REPRESENTATION I S BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE DISCUSSED IN THIS TRAINING. THE PAST PERFORMANCE OF ANY TRADING SYSTEM OR METHODOLOGY IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAINLIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOTREPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN E XECUTED, THERESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAINMARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS INGENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OFHINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELYTO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

ALL MATERIALS PRESENTED ARE FOR TRAINING PURPOSES ONLY . TRADERS SHOULD PAPER TRADE ANY NEW METHOD PRIOR TO RISK OF PERSONAL CAPITAL.

Keys to Trend Trading Technical Analysis

Copyright 2007-2017 ATTS

Institutions don’t care about small traders—They just want to take our money!

4 Key Tools for TATools Of The Trade

• The goal of every short-term trader is to determine the direction of a given asset's momentum and to attempt to profit from it.

• There have been hundreds of technical indicators and oscillators developed for this specific purpose. There are Pros & Cons for each indicator & oscillator.

• 4 Key Tools:– Trend Line Analysis– Chart Patterns– Support – Resistance

Recognize and Take Action

Read more: Top 7 Technical Analysis Tools http://www.investopedia.com/slide-show/tools-of-the-trade/#ixzz4keHU1XCa


http://www.investopedia.com/slide-show/tools-of-the-trade/#ixzz4keHU1XCa

http://www.investopedia.com/slide-show/tools-of-the-trade/#ixzz4keHU1XCa

Trend Line Analysis

• Long Term

• Intermediate

• Short Term

Longer Trends are strongest!

Where is price action with respect to the Long Term Trend?

Where do I want to take action to get in!


There is no Holy Grail of Trading—Only Tools & Rules


NVDA – 1 Hour Intraday


NVDA – Daily

June 2017

July 2016


NVDA – WeeklyAcceleration

Chart Patterns

• Many Patterns for charts and price action

• Choose proven winners that match your eye, or

• Combine with Oscillators/Indicators

• Pattern Recognition is great, BUT…

1. Trend Line, Moving Average Trend, Oscillator Divergence, Support & Resistance can be more predictive -- Ok to recognize the pattern but understand what it’s telling us

2. Traders can get overly focused on what a pattern is called and what’s it’s suppose to do they are distracted and unsure when the real move starts!


Support :

- Take the time to identify Support zones!

- It takes negative energy to break Support.

- Trader’s see support as a zone where institutions step in to support their position!



Buyers come in to support the current up move

Sellers come in at resistance to stop the

up move

Program yourself to wait!!

Resistance:

- Defines a price zone where late buyers got in to the previous move up.

- It requires positive energy to break out above resistance.

- Institutional trades may start to take profit at this level, i.e. selling pressure.

- 2 Biggest challenges with Support & Resistance?

1. Waiting for Zones to be reached

2. Whipsaw!


Price Envelopes Bonus Slides


Price Envelopes Bonus Slides• Shows Extreme Price Levels

• Shows Strength of Trends

• Provide Clues on when to enter & when to exit trades

• Often Set up Reversion Trade Opportunities

• Combining Keltner’s and MA Envelopes provide confirming clues

• Encourages Patience



Secondary Active Trend Trading Indicators

The Active Trend Trading System has Two levels of indicators to aid in timing both entries and exits❖ Primary Indicators include

❖ Price Action—This is King!

❖ Moving Averages—8 ema, 20 ema, 50 ema, 100 sma & 200 sma

(On weekly chart the only the 8 ema (approx the 50 day), 20 and 40 sma

❖ Candlestick Reversal Patterns

❖ Trend Lines & Price Level Support and Resistance Zones

❖ Pattern Breakouts & Breakdowns

❖ Secondary Indicators include:❖ True Strength Index (8,8,3 setting on TOS Charts)

❖ Momentum (12 setting on TOS Charts)

❖ Keltner Channels (20 EMA, 2 ATR settings on TOS Charts)

❖ 20 Period Moving Average Envelope set for different time periods

• Originally developed by Chester Keltner in the late 1950’s and early 1960’s

• Refined by Linda Raschke in the 1980’s

• A Volatility-based envelope set above and below an exponential moving average (some use SMA) which captures approximately 80-90% of price movement. (Including the 20 period EMA envelope increases to about 95%)

• A Trend Following indicator used to identify reversals with channel breakouts and channel direction

• Works on all timeframes (intraday, daily, weekly, monthly)

Keltner Channels


Keltner Channels vs. Bollinger Bands

• Keltner Channels are smoother than Bollinger Bands because the width of the B Bands are based on standard deviations while K Channels are based on Average True Range (ATR).

• Many believe the K Channels are more sensitive because they use the exponential moving average, however some traders do use a simple moving average with the K Channels

• The smooth appearance makes K Channels well suited for trend following and trend identification


Keltner Channels vs. Bollinger Bands


Keltner Channels: How to use them

There is an excellent tutorial at:

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:keltner_channels

This tutorial provides the basics on how to use K Channels for trade

timing. However remember K Channels are still a secondary indicator.

As always, Price is King!


http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:keltner_channels

Keltner Channels: How to use themUptrend


Keltner Channels: How to use themDowntrend


Keltner Channels: How to use them

Sideways Trend


• Daily: 20 EMA (OHLC) +/- 10%

• Weekly: 20 EMA (OHLC) +/- 25%

• 1 Hour Intraday: 20 EMA (OHLC) +/- 5%

• Basically the same interpretation as the Keltners

• Typically shows greater extremes and trigger reversion to mean price action

20 Period Moving Average Envelope


Combined Clues

Down TrendBegins

Up Trend Begins

What about now?

Early Clues


Combined Clues

Down TrendBegins

Up Trend Begins

What about now?

Early Clues

What about now?

Early Clues


Combined Clues – Weekly

Down TrendBegins

Early Clues

What about now?

Early Clues

What about here?


Combined Clues – 1-Hour Intraday

Up TrendBegins

Early Clues

What about now?

Early Clues – 6/27/16

What about here?

On Intraday ChartsExtremes on either TSI or MomentumProvide Solid Clues when combined with price location


Summary

• When Used together the value of price action clues are increased

• Great for planning trades

▪ Strategy

▪ Entries & Exits


Clarify, Simplify & Multiply

This has been the Motto of Active Trend Trading from the beginning!

We continuously work to Clarify & Simplify through refinements to the system to make it objective and easy to both learn and use.

The purpose of all presentations is to provide our fellow Active Trend Trader Members a jump start to accelerate progress up the Learning Curve.

We welcome suggestions on how to improve the learning process!

Trade Wisely & Profitably,

Dennis W. Wilborn

Founder & Lead Technical Analyst

“4 Keys to Trend Trading Tech Analysis” · “4 Keys to Trend Trading Tech Analysis ... Keltner...

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