ANTM

PT Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk ANTMLast Close 04 Apr 2016 Quantitative Fair Value Est 04 Apr 2016 Market Cap 04 Apr 2016 Sector Industry Country of Domicile

500.00 382.22 4,769.2 Bil r Basic Materials Industrial Metals & Minerals IDN Indonesia

PT Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk is a mining and metalscompany. It undertakes all activities from exploration,excavation, processing through to marketing of nickel ore,ferronickel, gold, silver, and bauxite.

Quantitative Scores Scores

All Rel Sector Rel Country

Quantitative Moat None 1 1 1Valuation Overvalued 3 6 2Quantitative Uncertainty Very High 73 89 68Financial Health Moderate 24 18 14

Source: Morningstar Equity Research

rIDN

ANTM

Undervalued Fairly Valued Overvalued

ValuationCurrent 5-Yr Avg

SectorMedian

CountryMedian

Price/Quant Fair Value 1.31 0.88 1.03 0.96Price/Earnings — 7.6 15.8 14.9Forward P/E — — 12.1 14.0Price/Cash Flow 157.9 17.4 6.8 8.4Price/Free Cash Flow — 16.7 13.1 11.8Trailing Dividend Yield % — — 2.47 2.22Price/Book 0.3 0.9 1.0 1.2Price/Sales 0.3 1.0 0.9 1.3

ProfitabilityCurrent 5-Yr Avg

SectorMedian

CountryMedian

Return on Equity % -9.5 12.7 8.9 12.3Return on Assets % -5.2 9.4 4.5 4.4Revenue/Employee (Bil) 3.5 3.4 0.0 0.9

Quantitative Moat Score100

0

20

40

60

80

100

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Financial HealthCurrent 5-Yr Avg

SectorMedian

CountryMedian

Distance to Default 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6Solvency Score — — 543.3 562.8Assets/Equity 1.8 1.6 1.4 2.1Long-Term Debt/Equity 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3

Price Versus Quantitative Fair Value

352

704

1,056

1,408

1,760

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Quantitative Fair Value Estimate

Total Return

Sales/ShareForecast RangeForcasted PriceDividendSplit

Momentum: —Standard Deviation: 41.87Liquidity: High

285.00 52-Wk 776.98

285.00 5-Yr 2,036.94

-15.4 -11.2 -1.4 -64.9 59.2 Total Return %-34.5 -31.5 1.9 -64.3 59.3 +/– Market (Morningstar World

Index)7.11 4.32 0.91 — — Trailing Dividend Yield %

— — — — — Forward Dividend Yield %10.3 3.2 -17.0 -2.4 -3.9 Price/Earnings

1.1 0.7 1.0 0.2 0.3 Price/RevenueMorningstar RatingQ

QQQQQQQQQQQQQQQ

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 TTM Financials (Fiscal Year in Bil)8,744 10,346 10,450 11,298 9,421 12,652 Revenue

0.4 18.3 1.0 8.1 -16.6 34.3 % Change

1,947 2,013 1,271 421 -179 -225 Operating Income231.3 3.4 -36.8 -66.9 -142.6 — % Change1,683 1,928 2,993 410 -775 -1,223 Net Income

— — — — — — Operating Cash Flow-560 -675 -2,249 -2,443 -2,068 -1,518 Capital Spending

1,444 893 -1,359 -2,286 -1,676 -1,490 Free Cash Flow16.5 8.6 -13.0 -20.2 -17.8 -11.8 % Sales

176.77 202.44 314.06 43.00 -81.00 -128.26 EPS178.6 14.5 55.1 -86.3 -288.4 — % Change97.68 68.04 -55.68 -184.33 -128.57 -156.32 Free Cash Flow/Share

18.12 59.39 76.43 39.55 8.12 0.00 Dividends/Share926.28 1,091.11 1,097.82 1,335.29 1,272.47 1,414.27 Book Value/Share9,538 9,535 9,538 9,538 — 9,538 Shares Outstanding (Mil)

Profitability19.0 19.0 25.4 3.2 -6.3 -9.5 Return on Equity %15.1 14.0 17.2 2.0 -3.5 -5.2 Return on Assets %19.3 18.6 28.6 3.6 -8.2 -9.7 Net Margin %0.79 0.75 0.60 0.54 0.43 0.53 Asset Turnover

1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.8 Financial Leverage

33.6 29.3 19.4 14.3 8.2 5.5 Gross Margin %22.3 19.5 12.2 3.7 -1.9 -1.8 Operating Margin %

0 0 — 1,224 5,263 6,402 Long-Term Debt

9,580 10,772 12,832 12,793 11,930 13,490 Total Equity3.0 3.5 2.7 2.0 1.2 1.2 Fixed Asset Turns

Growth Per Share1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year

Revenue % -16.6 -3.1 1.6 —Operating Income % — — — —Earnings % — — — —Dividends % -79.5 -48.5 — —Book Value % -6.8 3.5 7.9 —Stock Total Return % -34.6 -22.9 -18.8 —

Quarterly Revenue & EPSRevenue (Bil) Mar Jun Sep Dec Total2015 2,866.6 4,982.4 1,194.8 — —2014 2,303.3 1,683.5 1,825.8 3,608.1 9,420.62013 3,339.3 2,786.2 2,681.6 2,491.2 11,298.32012 2,464.4 2,027.6 2,642.0 3,315.9 10,449.9Earnings Per Share ()2015 -25.19 -16.34 -67.33 — —2014 -28.59 -38.39 7.84 -22.17 -81.002013 48.50 -9.31 -2.68 6.50 43.002012 39.82 10.01 16.07 248.08 314.06

Revenue Growth Year On Year %

1.5

-24.9 -31.0 -39.6 -31.9

44.824.5

196.0

-34.6

2013 2014 2015

Quantitative Equity Report | Release: 04 Apr 2016, 23:01, GMT-05:00 | Reporting Currency: IDR | Trading Currency: IDR

© Morningstar 2016. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses andopinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore is not an offer to buy or sell a security; are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate; andare subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data,analyses or opinions or their use. The information herein may not be reproduced, in any manner without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report.

ß®

of 3

Quantitative Equity Report Disclosure

The Quantitative Equity Report (“Report”) is derived from data, statistics andinformation within Morningstar, Inc.’s database as of the date of the Report andis subject to change without notice. The Report is for informational purposesonly, intended for financial professionals and/or sophisticated investors(“Users”) and should not be the sole piece of information used by such Users ortheir clients in making an investment decision. While Morningstar has obtaineddata, statistics and information from sources it believes to be reliable,Morningstar does not perform an audit or seeks independent verification of anyof the data, statistics, and information it receives.

This Report has not been made available to the issuer of the security prior topublication.

Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, Users and User’s clientsaccessing this Report may only use it in the country in which the Morningstardistributor is based. Unless stated otherwise, the original producer anddistributor of the Report is Morningstar Inc., a U.S.A. domiciled financialinstitution. Redistribution, in any capacity, is prohibited without permission.The data, statistics and information presented herein do not constituteinvestment advice; are not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell the securitynoted; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Unlessotherwise provided in a separate agreement, Morningstar makes norepresentation that the Report contents meets all of the presentation and/ordisclosure standards applicable in the User’s jurisdiction or the jurisdiction(s)the User’s clients are located.

Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar and its officers, directors andemployees shall not be responsible or liable for any trading decisions, damagesor other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses oropinions within the Report. Morningstar encourages Users and Users’ Clients toread all relevant issue documents (e.g., prospectus) pertaining to the securityconcerned, including without limitation, its investment objectives, risks, chargesand expenses before making an investment decision and when deemednecessary, to seek the advice of a legal, tax, and/or accounting professional.

Please note that investments in securities are subject to market and other risks.Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price orincome of any security or related investment mentioned in these reports. Inaddition, investors in securities such as ADRs, whose value are influenced bythe currency of the underlying security, effectively assume currency risk. Asecurity investment return and an investor’s principal value will fluctuate sothat, when redeemed, an investor’s shares may be worth more or less than theiroriginal cost. A security’s current investment performance may be lower orhigher than the investment performance noted within the Report. Pastperformance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

Indexes noted within the report are unmanaged, their returns do not includepayment of any sales charges or fees an investor would pay to purchasesecurities, and cannot be invested in directly.

Conflicts of Interest:• No material interests are held by Morningstar or an equity analyst in thesecurity that is the subject of the Report.

• Equity analysts’ compensation is derived from Morningstar, Inc.’s overallearnings and consists of salary, bonus and in some cases restricted stock.

• Equity analysts’ compensation is not tied to the investment performance of

a security or securities they cover.

• Morningstar was not paid by the issuer of the security to produce a Report.

• Morningstar is not a liquidity provider or marker maker for any security nordoes it offer investment banking services.

• Equity analysts do not have authority over Morningstar's investmentmanagement group's business arrangements nor are to allow employees fromthe investment management group to participate or influence the analysis oropinion prepared by them.

• Morningstar and equity analysts use publicly available information.

• Morningstar may provide issuers of a security or its related entities withservices or products for a fee on an arms-length basis including softwareproducts and licenses, research and consulting services, data services, licensesto republish our ratings and research in their promotional material, eventsponsorship and website advertising.

• Equity analysts are to comply with the CFA Institute's Code of Ethics andStandards of Professional Conduct as well as internal Morningstar, Inc. policiesthat are intended to mitigate conflicts of interests and to maintain the integrityof the research produced by Morningstar’s equity analysts. Users wishing toobtain further information about these policies should contact their localMorningstar office.

Quantitative Equity RatingsMorningstar’s quantitative equity ratings consist of: (i) Morningstar Rating (Q),Quantitative (ii) Quantitative Fair Value Estimate, (iii) Quantitative Valuation, (iv)Quantitative Uncertainty, (v) Quantitative Economic Moat, and (vi) QuantitativeFinancial Health (collectively the “Quantitative Ratings).

The Quantitative Ratings are forward-looking and are generated by a statisticalmodel that is based on analyst-driven ratings, including Morningstar’s FairValue Estimate, Morningstar® Economic Moat™ Rating, and Uncertainty Ratingas well as financial data points such as earnings yield, average daily volume,and total return volatility, among others.

The Quantitative Ratings are calculated daily and derived from the analyst-driven ratings of a company’s peers as determined by statistical algorithms.Morningstar calculates Quantitative Ratings for companies whether or not italready provides analyst ratings and qualitative coverage. In some cases, theQuantitative Ratings may differ from the analyst ratings because a company’sanalyst-driven ratings can significantly differ from other companies in its peergroup.

i. Morningstar Rating (Q): Intended to represent the ratio of a stock’sQuantitative Fair Value Estimate to its most recent close price.The rating iscalculated daily based on the discount or premium in the last closeprice of the stock compared to the Quantitative Fair Value Estimate. It isexpressed as one through five stars, denoted with a superscript ‘Q’, with 5 starsrepresenting a stock trading at the most significant discount to the QuantitativeFair Value Estimate and 1 star representing a stock trading at the biggestpremium to the Quantitative Fair Value Estimate.

ii. Quantitative Fair Value Estimate: Intended to represent Morningstar’sestimate of the per share dollar amount that a company’s equity is worth today.Morningstar calculates the Quantitative Fair Value Estimate using a statisticalmodel derived from the Fair Value Estimate Morningstar’s equity analystsassign to companies.

iii. Quantitative Economic Moat: Intended to describe the strength of a



ß®

of 3

firm’s competitive position. It is calculated using an algorithm designed topredict the Economic Moat rating a Morningstar analyst would assign to thestock. The rating is expressed as None, Narrow, and Wide.

iv. Quantitative Valuation: Intended to represent the ratio of a stock’sQuantitative Fair Value Estimate to its most recent close price and is similar tothe analyst-driven Fair Value Estimate to last market close price ratio. The ratingis expressed as Overvalued, Fairly Valued, and Undervalued.

v. Quantitative Uncertainty: Intended to represent Morningstar’s level ofuncertainty about the accuracy of the Quantitative Fair Value Estimate.Generally, the lower the Quantitative Uncertainty, the narrower the potentialrange of outcomes for that particular company. The rating is expressed as Low,Medium, High, Very High, and Extreme.

vi. Quantitative Financial Health: Intended to reflect the probability that afirm will face financial distress in the near future. The calculation uses apredictive model designed to anticipate when a company may default on itsfinancial obligations. The rating is expressed as Weak, Moderate, and Strong.

The Quantitative Ratings are not statements of fact. Morningstar does notguarantee the completeness or accuracy of the assumptions or models used indetermining the Quantitative Ratings. In addition, there is the risk that the pricetarget will not be met due to such things as unforeseen changes in demand forthe company’s products, changes in management, technology, economicdevelopment, interest rate development, operating and/or material costs,competitive pressure, supervisory law, exchange rate, and tax rate. Forinvestments in foreign markets there are further risks, generally based onexchange rate changes or changes in political and social conditions. A change inthe fundamental factors underlying the Quantitative Ratings can mean that thevaluation is subsequently no longer accurate.

Prices noted with the Report are the closing prices on the last stock-markettrading day before the publication date stated, unless another point in time isexplicitly stated.

The Quantitative Ratings noted the Report are provided in good faith, are as ofthe date of the Report and are subject to change. While Morningstar hasobtained data, statistics and information from sources it believes to be reliable,Morningstar does not perform an audit or seeks independent verification of anyof the data, statistics, and information it receives.

The Quantitative Ratings are not a market call, and do not replace the User orUser’s clients from conducting their own due-diligence on the security. TheQuantitative Ratings (either individually or collectively) are not a suitabilityassessment; such assessments take into account may factors including aperson’s investment objective, personal and financial situation, and risktolerance all of which are factors the Quantitative Ratings do not consider.

For more information about Morningstar’s quantitative methodology, pleasevisit corporate.morningstar.com.

Morningstar’s Quantitative methodology was developed and it is maintained byLee Davidson, Head of the Quantitative Research.

For Recipients in Australia: This report has been authorized by the Head ofEquity and Credit Research, Asia Pacific, Morningstar Australasia Pty Limitedand is circulated pursuant to RG 79.26(f) as a full restatement of an originalreport (by the named Morningstar analyst) which has already been broadlydistributed. The information in the Report has not been prepared for use byretail investors. To the extent the Report contains general advice it has beenprepared without reference to an investor’s objectives, financial situation orneeds. Investors should consider the advice in light of these matters and, if

applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making anydecision to invest. Refer to our Financial Services Guide (FSG) for moreinformation at www.morningstar.com.au/fsg.pdf. The Report is forinformational purposes and should not be the sole piece of information used bysuch financial professionals or sophisticated investors in making an investmentdecision.

For Recipients in Hong Kong: The Report is distributed by MorningstarInvestment Management Asia Limited, which is regulated by the Hong KongSecurities and Futures Commission to provide services to professional investorsonly. Neither Morningstar Investment Management Asia Limited, nor itsrepresentatives, are acting or will be deemed to be acting as an investmentadvisor to any recipients of this information unless expressly agreed to byMorningstar Investment Management Asia Limited. For enquiries regarding thisresearch, please contact a Morningstar Investment Management Asia LimitedLicensed Representative at http://global.morningstar.com/equitydisclosures.

For Recipients in India: Research on securities [as defined in clause (h) ofSection 2 of the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956], and being referredto for the purpose of this document as “Investment Research”, is issued byMorningstar Investment Adviser India Private Limited.

Morningstar Investment Adviser India Private Limited is registered with theSecurities and Exchange Board of India under the SEBI (Investment Advisers)Regulations, 2013, vide Registration number INA000001357, dated March 27,2014, and in compliance of the aforesaid regulations and Chapter III of the SEBI(Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, it carries on the business activities ofinvestment advice and research. Morningstar Investment Adviser India PrivateLimited has not been the subject of any disciplinary action by SEBI or any otherlegal/regulatory body. Morningstar Investment Adviser India Private Limited is awholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar Associates LLC, which is a part of theMorningstar Investment Management group of Morningstar, Inc. In India,Morningstar Investment Adviser India Private Limited has only one associate,viz., Morningstar India Private Limited, and this company predominantly carrieson the business activities of providing data input, data transmission and otherdata related services, financial data analysis, software development etc.

The author/creator of this Investment Research (“Research Analyst”) or his/herassociates or immediate family may have (i) a financial interest in the subjectsecurity or (ii) an actual/beneficial ownership of one per cent or more securitiesof the subject security, at the end of the month immediately preceding the dateof publication of this Investment Research. The Research Analyst, his/herassociates and immediate family do not have any other material conflict ofinterest at the time of publication of this Investment Research.

The Research Analyst or his/her associates or his/her immediate familyhas/have not received any (i) compensation from the relevant issuer of thesecurity in the past twelve months; (ii) compensation for products or servicesfrom the relevant issuer of the security in the past twelve months; and (iii)compensation or other material benefits from the relevant issuer of the securityor third party in connection with this Investment Research. Also, the ResearchAnalyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the relevant issuerof the security, nor has it or its associates been engaged in market makingactivity for the subject security.

The terms and conditions on which Morningstar Investment Adviser IndiaPrivate Limited offers Investment Research to clients, varies from client toclient, and is spelt out in detail in the respective client agreement.



ß®

of 3

ANTM

Documents

Transcript of ANTM