Anticipatory Management: Tools and Techniques for ...horizon.unc.edu/projects/slides/Anticipatory...
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Anticipatory Management: Tools and Techniques for Effective Decision Making
in a Turbulent World
James L. MorrisonProfessor Emeritus of Educational LeadershipThe University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
http://[email protected]
International Conference on Management and
HumanitiesEmirate of Dubai, United Arab Emirates
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What is anticipatory management?
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Anticipatory Management ToolsStrategic Intelligence System
Vulnerability-opportunity audit
Impact networks
Issue briefs
Prioritize issues
Challenge assumptions
Framing high priority issues
Performance evaluation
Framing issues for maintenance and policy
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Strategic Intelligence System
Scanning
Monitoring
Forecasting
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Vulnerability Audits
What needs and wants does the organization serve?
What special abilities are required?
What resources and assets does it rely on?
Who constitutes the customer base?
What technologies does it rely on?
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Impact Networks
Ask, what do you see on the horizon that if it occurs, the future will be different?
Focus attention on first, second, and third order effects
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Issue Briefs Summarize
the focus of the issue
the issue’s background
the forces driving the issue
a forecast of the issue is going
the implications for the organization
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Prioritize Issues
What is the probability that an issue will become critical to the organization?
Does an issue require an immediate action or should it be monitored and revisited?
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Framing High Priority Issues
Designate an owner; form a team
Conduct situational assessment and an impact analysis
Define and implement an action plan
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Performance Evaluation
Review
how the action plan was implemented
how well objectives are attained
how stakeholders responded to the plan
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The Anticipatory Management ProcessLinks the organization to the external environment
Penetrates the mind of the participants
Alters perceptions, challenges assumptions, opens our minds to new insights
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horizon.unc.edu
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