Anticipating Sea Level Rise Response in Puget Sound Alexander (Sascha) Petersen Research Update and...

Anticipating Sea Level Rise Anticipating Sea Level Rise Response in Puget SoundResponse in Puget Sound

Alexander (Sascha) Petersen Alexander (Sascha) Petersen

Research Update and Discussion Research Update and Discussion CIG Seminar CIG Seminar

May 31, 2007 May 31, 2007

Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline Focus of the StudyFocus of the Study Climate Change and Sea Level Climate Change and Sea Level

RiseRise Resilience FrameworkResilience Framework Mapping Inundation Scenarios Mapping Inundation Scenarios Floodplain MappingFloodplain Mapping Legal and Institutional StructureLegal and Institutional Structure Potential Response OptionsPotential Response Options


RiseRise Resilience FrameworkResilience Framework Mapping Inundation ScenariosMapping Inundation Scenarios Floodplain MappingFloodplain Mapping Legal and Institutional StructureLegal and Institutional Structure Potential Response OptionsPotential Response Options

Research QuestionsResearch Questions

1) 1) What are the key regulatory and What are the key regulatory and institutional barriers to incorporating sea institutional barriers to incorporating sea level rise science and its uncertainty into level rise science and its uncertainty into decision making?decision making?

2) 2) How can these impediments be overcome in How can these impediments be overcome in order to develop a policy framework that can order to develop a policy framework that can effectively incorporate consideration of the effectively incorporate consideration of the uncertainty associated with sea level rise?uncertainty associated with sea level rise?

Current Climate Change Current Climate Change FocusFocus

Mitigation vs. Adaptation Mitigation vs. Adaptation Mitigation Mitigation

Decrease long-term changesDecrease long-term changes National/International National/International

AdaptationAdaptation Decrease SensitivityDecrease Sensitivity Increase Adaptive CapacityIncrease Adaptive Capacity Proactive or ReactiveProactive or Reactive Local/RegionalLocal/Regional

Geographic FocusGeographic Focus

Add map of Washington or U.S.

http://www.worldmapsonline.com/hskwa2217washingtonncrmaprr.htm

Local GovernmentsLocal Governments

Long-term planning Long-term planning horizonshorizons

Tradition coastal Tradition coastal zone land use zone land use management management

King County & City King County & City of Seattleof Seattle

Shoreline Master Shoreline Master Program UpdatesProgram Updates

http://www.seattle.gov/mayor/RainierCourtFactSheet.htm

Climate Change & Sea Level Climate Change & Sea Level RiseRise

IPCC WGI SPM 2001

Climate Change & Sea Level Climate Change & Sea Level Rise Rise

IPCC WGI SPM 2007

Climate SystemClimate System

Positive FeedbacksPositive Feedbacks Non-linear DynamicsNon-linear Dynamics Threshold ResponsesThreshold Responses Multiple EquilibriaMultiple Equilibria

Rial et al. 2004

Sea Level Rise ScienceSea Level Rise Science

Alley et al. 2005

Rates of Sea Level RiseRates of Sea Level Rise

Rising since Glacial Maximum Rising since Glacial Maximum Historic Peak Rate 50mm/yr Historic Peak Rate 50mm/yr (Alley et al. 2005)(Alley et al. 2005)

19,000 and 14,500 years ago19,000 and 14,500 years ago Last 50 years = 1.8 Last 50 years = 1.8 ++ 0.3 mm/yr 0.3 mm/yr (Nerem et al. (Nerem et al.

2006)2006)

1993-2003 = 3.1 1993-2003 = 3.1 ++ 0.4 mm/yr 0.4 mm/yr (IPCC 2007, Nerem et (IPCC 2007, Nerem et

al. 2006) al. 2006)

Thermal Expansion 1.2—1.8 mm/yrThermal Expansion 1.2—1.8 mm/yr Glacial and Ice-sheet Melt 1.0—1.2 mm/yrGlacial and Ice-sheet Melt 1.0—1.2 mm/yr

Temperature and Sea Level Temperature and Sea Level Rise PredictionsRise Predictions

IPCC WG I Tech Summary 2001

Sea Level Rise Science Sea Level Rise Science IPCC 2007IPCC 2007

IPCC Working Group I SPM 2007

Sea Level Rise Science Sea Level Rise Science IPCC 2007IPCC 2007

However, this does not “…include the full effects However, this does not “…include the full effects of changes in ice sheet flow, because a basis in of changes in ice sheet flow, because a basis in published literature is lacking…. published literature is lacking…. Larger values Larger values cannot be excludedcannot be excluded, but understanding of these , but understanding of these effects is too limited to assess their likelihood or effects is too limited to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate or an upper bound for sea provide a best estimate or an upper bound for sea level rise.”level rise.” (IPCC WGI SPM 2007, pg 11)(IPCC WGI SPM 2007, pg 11)

Empirical Approach to Sea Empirical Approach to Sea Level Rise PredictionLevel Rise Prediction

Rahmstorf (2007): 0.5m – 1.4m by Rahmstorf (2007): 0.5m – 1.4m by 21002100

Sea Level Rise UncertaintySea Level Rise Uncertainty

Physics of ice-sheet dynamicsPhysics of ice-sheet dynamics Difficulty modeling (projections)Difficulty modeling (projections) Human emissions choicesHuman emissions choices

Decision-makers forced to make

choices in an uncertain

environment.

???

???

Resilience FrameworkResilience Framework Focus on Social-Ecological SystemFocus on Social-Ecological System

Non-Human Systems

Human Systems

Adapted from SMA Curriculum Update 2007

Resilience FrameworkResilience Framework

“..the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change so as to still retain essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks.” (Walker et al. 2004 pg 6)

Resilience LandscapeResilience Landscape

Adapted from Walker et al.

(2004)

Resilience & Sea Level RiseResilience & Sea Level Rise

Increasing ResilienceIncreasing Resilience

Decrease Exposure (Decrease Exposure (MitigationMitigation)) Decrease Sensitivity (Decrease Sensitivity (AdaptationAdaptation)) Increase Adaptive Capacity Increase Adaptive Capacity

((AdaptationAdaptation))

Social-Ecological ResilienceSocial-Ecological Resilience

Madonna 1983

Ray of Light 1998

The Confessions Tour 2007 Accept uncertaintyAccept uncertainty

Embrace change Embrace change

Allow for Allow for transformationtransformation

Madonna = Resilience?Madonna = Resilience?

Berkes et al. 2003

Value of Resilience Framework Value of Resilience Framework For Sea Level Rise ResponseFor Sea Level Rise Response

Focusing on resilience does not attempt to eliminate uncertainty but to develop better ways to co-exist with inherent and irreducible uncertainties.

(Klinke & Renn 2002)

Areas MappedAreas Mapped

Harbor Island, Seattle

Quartermaster Harbor,

Vashon-Maury Island

Downtown Olympia

Relative Rates of Sea Level Relative Rates of Sea Level RiseRise

Local Vertical Land Local Vertical Land MovementsMovements Holdahl et al. 1989Holdahl et al. 1989 Mitchell et al. 1995Mitchell et al. 1995 Verdonck 2006 Verdonck 2006

Vertical Land MovementsVertical Land Movements

General Trends General Trends ConsistentConsistent

Neah Bay UpliftNeah Bay Uplift Little Movement in Little Movement in

Puget Sound Puget Sound Seattle VariationSeattle Variation

-2 mm/yr 1989 -2 mm/yr 1989 0 mm/yr 20060 mm/yr 2006

Not Linear or Consistent?Not Linear or Consistent?

Digital Elevation MapDigital Elevation Map

Based on Puget Sound Integrated Based on Puget Sound Integrated Bathymetry/Topography Bathymetry/Topography (Finlayson 2005)(Finlayson 2005)

DatumDatum Horizontal: Lambert Conformal Conic, Horizontal: Lambert Conformal Conic,

North American Datum of 1983. North American Datum of 1983. Vertical: North American Vertical Datum of Vertical: North American Vertical Datum of

19881988

Digital Elevation MapDigital Elevation Map

LIDAR Vertical LIDAR Vertical Resolution:Resolution: Original Original

6 ft cells 6 ft cells ++ 30 cm 30 cm

Processed (Blended, Processed (Blended, Mosaic) Mosaic)

30 ft cells30 ft cells Error likely < 2 ft Error likely < 2 ft (Finlayson (Finlayson

2005)2005)

http://www.wy.nrcs.usda.gov/wygis/lidar.html

2 feet

6 feet

4 feet

Sea Level Sea Level Rise Rise

ScenariosScenarios Based on Global Based on Global PredictionsPredictions

Map ResolutionMap Resolution

Inundation MappingInundation Mapping

Determination of Determination of OHWOHW

Simple inundation Simple inundation scenariosscenarios

Doesn’t reflect Doesn’t reflect dynamic processes dynamic processes Storms, Flooding…Storms, Flooding… Human ResponseHuman Response

Overlay of Aerial Overlay of Aerial PhotographyPhotography

Inundation MappingInundation Mapping


RiseRise Resilience FrameworkResilience Framework Inundation ScenariosInundation Scenarios Floodplain MappingFloodplain Mapping Legal and Institutional StructureLegal and Institutional Structure Potential Response OptionsPotential Response Options

Seattle Flood Plain Seattle Flood Plain ScenariosScenarios

Focus on Flood Focus on Flood ZoneZone

100 yr Flood 100 yr Flood (1% chance/year) (1% chance/year)

Coastal flood zone Coastal flood zone not on FIRM Maps not on FIRM Maps

Highest TideHighest Tide 12.14 ft. NAVD88, 12.14 ft. NAVD88,

1.89 feet. above 1.89 feet. above OHW 1/27/1983 OHW 1/27/1983

Seattle Flood Plain Seattle Flood Plain ScenariosScenarios

Legal & Regulatory Legal & Regulatory FrameworkFramework

Federal, State, and LocalFederal, State, and Local Key Laws:Key Laws:

SMASMA Floodplains (FEMA)Floodplains (FEMA) Coastal Zone Management Coastal Zone Management

Growth Management Act Critical Area Ordinances

Frequently Flooded Areas Geological Hazard

Federal

FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM)

NOAA Coastal Zone Management Act

MHHWOHW

200’

State

Dept of Ecology Coastal Zone Management

Shoreline Management Act Flood Plain

Management Act WDFW Hydraulic

Permit

FlRM

Local

FlRM

Flood Maps/Building Code

Shoreline Master Program

FlRM

Federal Consistency

100-yr Flood Plain

Private PropertyPublic Trust

MLW

MHW



Federal



MHHWOHW

MLW200’

State




Permit

FlRM

Local

FlRM



FlRM

Federal Consistency

100-yr Flood Plain


MHW

Coastal Manageme

nt



Federal



MHHWOHW

MLW200’

State




Permit

FlRM

Local

FlRM



FlRM

Federal Consistency

100-yr Flood Plain


MHW

Flood Zones



Federal



MHHWOHW

MLW200’

State




Permit

FlRM

Local

FlRM



FlRM

Federal Consistency

100-yr Flood Plain


MHW

Sea Level Rise Response Sea Level Rise Response #1#1 Designated Floodplain & Building Designated Floodplain & Building

CodesCodes

BarriersBarriers Coastal flooding not always mappedCoastal flooding not always mapped Past may not represent futurePast may not represent future FEMA flood map update frequencyFEMA flood map update frequency

FEMA updates 20+ yearsFEMA updates 20+ years

Sea Level Rise Response Sea Level Rise Response #1#1 Designated Floodplain & Building Designated Floodplain & Building

CodesCodes

Response OptionsResponse Options Include coastal flooding Include coastal flooding Increase frequency of flood map Increase frequency of flood map

updatesupdates Current FEMA flood map evaluation 5 yearsCurrent FEMA flood map evaluation 5 years SMA & GMA update requirement: 7 yearsSMA & GMA update requirement: 7 years

Flexible laws based on environmental Flexible laws based on environmental changeschanges

Sea Level Rise Response Sea Level Rise Response #2 Management of Shoreline #2 Management of Shoreline

ArmoringArmoring

BarriersBarriers Private property rightsPrivate property rights Multiple appropriate planning scenariosMultiple appropriate planning scenarios Determination of cumulative impact Determination of cumulative impact

horizonhorizon

Titus, J., 1998, Rising Seas….. Maryland Law Review 57 (4), 1283

Sea Level Rise Response Sea Level Rise Response #2 Management of Shoreline #2 Management of Shoreline

ArmoringArmoring

Response OptionsResponse Options Consider dynamic shoreline for Consider dynamic shoreline for

cumulative impact assessmentcumulative impact assessment Rolling easement Rolling easement

Resilience Framework:

Accept and prepare for

change

Sea Level Rise Response Sea Level Rise Response #3 Shoreline Designations#3 Shoreline Designations

Response OptionsResponse Options Create “threatened Create “threatened

by sea level rise” by sea level rise” categorycategory

Tailor sea level rise Tailor sea level rise response to response to shoreline shoreline designationsdesignations

Sea Level Rise Response Sea Level Rise Response #4 Connection to CZMA #4 Connection to CZMA

““Because global warming may result in a Because global warming may result in a substantial sea level rise with serious substantial sea level rise with serious adverse effects in the coastal zone, adverse effects in the coastal zone, coastal states must anticipate and plan coastal states must anticipate and plan for such an occurrence.”for such an occurrence.” (16 USC § 1451 (16 USC § 1451 L)L)Coastal zone enhancement objective Coastal zone enhancement objective includes: “…anticipating and managing the includes: “…anticipating and managing the effects of potential sea level rise…”effects of potential sea level rise…” (16 USC § 1456b A2)(16 USC § 1456b A2)

Sea Level Rise Response Sea Level Rise Response #4 Connection to CZMA#4 Connection to CZMA

Response OptionsResponse Options Update SMA to include consideration of Update SMA to include consideration of

sea level rise sea level rise Leverage Federal Consistency Leverage Federal Consistency Request additional funding through Request additional funding through

“enhancement grants” “enhancement grants”

Summary Summary

Sea Level Rise Response is DifficultSea Level Rise Response is Difficult Value of Resilience FrameworkValue of Resilience Framework

Social-Ecological System ContextSocial-Ecological System Context Accepts UncertaintyAccepts Uncertainty Expects ChangeExpects Change

Mapping VulnerabilitiesMapping Vulnerabilities Exploring Response Options Exploring Response Options

AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements CIG, JISAO, and NOAA for funding this researchCIG, JISAO, and NOAA for funding this research Dr. Edward L. Miles, Dr. Thomas M. Leschine Dr. Edward L. Miles, Dr. Thomas M. Leschine

and Douglas J. Canning for their knowledge, and Douglas J. Canning for their knowledge, insight, guidance and supportinsight, guidance and support

King County (Jill Moe & Sally Abella)King County (Jill Moe & Sally Abella) City of Seattle (Miles Mayhew and Brennon City of Seattle (Miles Mayhew and Brennon

Staley)Staley) Rob Norheim & Hugh ShipmanRob Norheim & Hugh Shipman Family, Friends and ColleaguesFamily, Friends and Colleagues

Thanks!Thanks!

Alexander (Sascha) Petersen

3707 Brooklyn Ave N, Seattle, WA 98103

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Titus, J., 1998, Rising Seas….. Maryland Law Review 57 (4), 1283

Anticipating Sea Level Rise Response in Puget Sound Alexander (Sascha) Petersen Research Update and...

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