Annual Results Presentation 2018-19 | Nationwide€¦ · 5 Profits in line with expectations as we...

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Transcript of Annual Results Presentation 2018-19 | Nationwide€¦ · 5 Profits in line with expectations as we...

Page 1: Annual Results Presentation 2018-19 | Nationwide€¦ · 5 Profits in line with expectations as we invest for the future Underlying profit before tax1 (£m) £977m £788m £227m 2018
Page 2: Annual Results Presentation 2018-19 | Nationwide€¦ · 5 Profits in line with expectations as we invest for the future Underlying profit before tax1 (£m) £977m £788m £227m 2018

Highlights

Page 3: Annual Results Presentation 2018-19 | Nationwide€¦ · 5 Profits in line with expectations as we invest for the future Underlying profit before tax1 (£m) £977m £788m £227m 2018

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Our purpose is building society, nationwide

Built to Lastkeeping our Society and our

members’ money safe

Building Thriving Membership helping more members make more

of their money

Building a National Treasure

supporting communities and making a

difference

Building PRIDE creating the right culture to do

the best for our members

Building Legendary Service

striving to serve our members

better every day

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Highlights

1 © Ipsos MORI 2019, Financial Research Survey (FRS) measure, as defined in the glossary (slide 32). 2 Nationwide Brand and Advertising tracker (see slide 32). 3 Sources: Pay.UK monthly CASS data,

12 months to March 2019. 4 2018 comparative has been restated to reflect a change in the components of underlying profit.

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Profits in line with expectations as we invest for the future

Underlying profit before tax1 (£m)

£977m£788m

£227m

2018 2019

Member financial benefit2 (£m)

1 Comparatives have been restated to reflect changes to the definition of underlying profit. Underlying profit now contains the Bank Levy and FSCS management expenses, which were previously excluded. 2 Member financial benefit is quantified as our interest rate differential plus member incentives and reduced fees.

▪ Profit includes a charge of £227m for asset write-offs and additional investment in technology

£560m£705m

2018 2019

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We are delivering against our commitments to members

1 © Ipsos MORI 2019, Financial Research Survey (FRS) measure, as defined in the glossary (slide 32) 2 Institute of Customer Service’s UK Customer Satisfaction Index (UK CSI), January 2019 3 Engaged

members have at least one of their main current account, a mortgage with >£5,000 balance, or savings with >£,1000 balance with us. Committed members have two or more of our products, of which at

least one of which is an engaged membership product.

Measure Target2019

performance

Outstanding service Customer satisfaction

FRS: 1st + 4%

in our peer group

UK CSI: UK top 5

1st + 4.8%1

Joint 5th2

Value for members

Member financial benefit

Engaged members3

Committed members3

At least £400m pa

10m by 2022

4m by 2022

£705m

9.2m

3.4m

Financial strength UK leverage ratio > 4.5% 4.9%

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Leading our peer group for service and trust

More members than ever before receiving leading service

More members are doing more with us

Customer satisfaction vs

peer group average2

1 Committed members have two or more of our products, at least one of which is their main current account, a mortgage with >£5,000 balance, or savings with >£1,000 balance. 2 © Ipsos MORI 2019,

Financial Research Survey (FRS) measure, as defined in the glossary (slide 32). 3 Source: Nationwide Brand and Advertising tracker, as defined in the glossary (slide 32).

Total members (m) Committed members1 (m)

14.815.1

15.515.9

2016 2017 2018 2019

3.0 3.1 3.23.4

2016 2017 2018 2019

Trust vs

competitor average3

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Mar

2016

Mar

2017

Mar

2018

Mar

2019

NationwideCompetitor group

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

Mar

2016

Mar

2017

Mar

2018

Mar

2019

NationwidePeer group

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Growth in member deposits,

growing market share

Strong performance in a competitive market

Change in deposit balances (£bn)Gross mortgage lending (£bn)

Robust current account openings,

and 1 in 5 switchers

First time buyers (‘000) Market share of growth in deposits (%)2

33.7 33.0 36.4

2017 2018 2019

5.83.5

6.0

2017 2018 2019

Current accounts opened (‘000)

Market share of current account switchers (%)1

795 816 794

2017 2018 2019

Record gross mortgage lending

and first time buyers

8.2 6.812.2

2017 2018 2019

75 76 77

2017 2018 2019

1 Source: Pay.UK monthly CASS data, 12 months to March 2019. 2 The basis for measuring market share has been adjusted to better reflect the position at the reporting date, with comparatives restated

accordingly.

18.0 18.921.5

2017 2018 2019

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225440

653

2017 2018 2019

313512

732

2017 2018 2019

1.42.0

2.7

2017 2018 2019

Digital technologies are changing our

members’ behaviour

Our investment is already helping us to meet members’

changing needs and expectations

Mobile app users (m)

Our technology investment will support future growth and member service

Contactless payments (m)

+134%+90%

Mobile app logins (m)

Black Friday peak payments (m)

3.24.5 5.4

2016 2017 2018

▪ Service and proposition enhancements: new mobile functionality,

redesigned digital mortgage switching, and new Later Life

proposition

▪ Infrastructure: started the simplification of Unisys system and

complex integration and data landscapes, and improved the

resilience of mobile and payments services

▪ Innovation: partnering with 10x to build a new cloud-based banking

platform for Nationwide for Business, Open Banking for Good

initiative and venturing investments

▪ Recruitment: demand for new technology talent and started

recruitment

+190% +69%

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Financials

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£ millions 20181 2019

Underlying income 3,132 3,170

Underlying costs (2,024) (2,254)

Of which asset write-offs and

additional technology spend0 (227)

Impairments (105) (113)

Other provisions (26) (15)

Underlying profit 977 788

Other items 0 45

Statutory profit 977 833

Cost income ratio 64.6% 71.1%

Profits in line with expectations as we invest in our long-term future

▪ £227m charge from asset write-offs and additional technology spend in line with our September announcement. Excluding this charge, our costs are broadly flat year on year

▪ £705m of member financial benefit (2017/18: £560m)

▪ Our financial performance framework sets an objective of an underlying profit of approx. £0.9bn - £1.3bn per annum over the cycle

Other items (£ millions) 2018 2019

FSCS release 1 9

Gains from derivatives and hedge accounting

(1) 36

Total 0 45

1 Comparatives have been restated to reflect changes to the definition of underlying profit. Underlying profit now contains the Bank Levy and FSCS management expenses, which were previously

excluded.

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Maintaining a low risk balance sheet

▪ Balance sheet growth driven by £8.6bn net mortgage lending and increase in liquidity due to strong retail deposit performance

▪ CET1 ratio increased to 32.4%

▪ UK leverage ratio stable at 4.9%. AT1 will be called on 20 June. Excluding AT1, the UK leverage ratio stands at 4.5%

Key ratios (%) 05 Apr 185 04 Apr 19

Liquidity coverage ratio 130.3 150.2

Wholesale funding ratio 28.2 28.6

CET1 ratio 30.4 32.4

UK leverage ratio 4.9 4.9

1 Balances are shown net of provisions. 2 Treasury assets (including liquidity portfolio). 3 Shares (member deposits) 4 Total members’ interests, subordinated liabilities and subscribed capital. 5 Comparison shown vs 5 April 2018 to reflect the impact of IFRS9.

£ billions 04 Apr 18IAS39

05 Apr 185

IFRS904 Apr 19 %

Residential mortgages1 177.2 177.1 185.8 78

Other lending 14.4 14.3 13.3 6

Liquidity2 30.9 30.9 32.7 13

Other assets 6.6 6.6 6.5 3

Assets 229.1 228.9 238.3 100

Retail deposits3 148.4 148.4 154.0 65

Wholesale funding 58.8 58.8 61.2 26

Other liabilities 3.7 3.7 3.0 1

Capital & reserves4 18.2 18.0 20.1 8

Liabilities 229.1 228.9 238.3 100

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Lower funding costs offset by mortgage competition

Margin has moderated in line with guidance

Net interest margin (bps)Net interest income1 (£m) & net interest margin (%)

Continued focus on long-term value for members

2,918 3,062 2,946 3,004 2,915

1.49 1.501.32 1.31 1.22

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

1,516 1,499 1,505 1,440 1,475

1.33 1.33 1.28 1.23 1.22

H2 16/17 H1 17/18 H2 17/18 H1 18/19 H2 18/19

Net interest income NIM

1 The opportunity has been taken to reclassify certain items previously included within net interest income to reflect better the nature of the transactions. As a result, gains and losses recognised on the disposal of investment securities classified as FVOCI (2018: available for sale) are now presented within net other income.

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1,979 1,982

2,209

45

49

15 61

13

45

112

11545

(32)

(103)

2018 Pay,

pension

& inflation

Business

volumes

Previous

strategic

investment

Other Full year

benefit

of prior year

sustainable

saves

New

sustainable

saves

Subtotal Investment

in

technology

Asset

write offs

2019

2,024 2,027

2,254

Delivering efficiency: flat operating costs support investment in infrastructure

▪ Reported costs have increased due to

technology investment and asset write-offs

▪ We have delivered a further £103m of in-year

sustainable saves this year. Including the full

year benefit of sustainable saves delivered

over the last two years, we have now

delivered around half our £500m target

▪ Our continued focus on efficiency has

allowed us to absorb inflationary increases,

volume growth and the impact of previous

strategic investment

▪ Our 5-year technology investment targets

the simplification of our technology estate

alongside investment in digital service and

data capabilities. Spend during the year has

concentrated on resilience, data

management and platform build to further

our digital offering

(32)

(103)

0.1%

Underlying costs (£m)

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Low impairments reflect lending quality

Impairment charge (£m)

1 Comparison shown vs 5 April to reflect the impact of IFRS9. 2 Residential: percentage of loans, by number. Unsecured: percentage of balances, exc. charge offs. 3 UK Finance arrears: 3m+ arrears balance divided by latest contractual payment.

73

140

105

113

2016 2017 2018 2019

Residential lending Consumer bankingCommercial & other lending Treasury & other

Retail lending1

Residential Unsecured

05 Apr 18 04 Apr 19 05 Apr 18 04 Apr 19

Total balances (£m) 177,303 186,012 4,107 4,586

Provision balances (£m) 235 206 365 418

3 month+ arrears2 (%) 0.43 0.43 1.56 1.35

UKF industry average3 (%) 0.81 0.78

Total negative equity

balances (£m)261 203

Negative equity (£m) 38 30

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161 This table excludes Fair Value through Profit or Loss (FVTPL) balances which totalled £72 million as at 4 April 2019 (5 April 2018: £189 million).

IFRS9 staging and provision analysis of loans

Residential mortgages1 Unsecured

05 Apr 18 04 Apr 19 05 Apr 18 04 Apr 19

Balance

(£m)

Share of

book

(%)

Provision

coverage

(%)

Balance

(£m)

Share of

book

(%)

Provision

coverage

(%)

Balance

(£m)

Share of

book

(%)

Provision

coverage

(%)

Balance

(£m)

Share of

book

(%)

Provision

coverage

(%)

Stage 1 156,647 88 0.01 176,203 95 0.02 3,264 79 0.8 3,538 77 0.8

Stage 2 19,072 11 0.9 8,479 5 1.5 575 14 17.9 761 17 17.3

Of which: >30 dpd 463 480 16 18

Stage 3 and POCI 1,395 1 3.4 1,438 <1 2.9 268 7 88.5 287 6 90.1

Of which: >90 dpd or in

possession740 760 61 59

Of which: charged off

accountsn.a n.a. 185 209

Total 177,114 0.13 185,940 0.11 4,107 8.9 4,586 9.1

Memo: Stage 3 coverage exc.

charged off accounts (%)n.a. n.a. 75 74

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IFRS9 economic scenarios

▪ The weighting applied to the downside scenarios has increased to 30% (5 April 2018: 20%) reflecting increased economic uncertainty

▪ Within this, the weight applied to the adjustment for the severe downside scenario has increased from 5% to 10%

▪ The impact on provisions of the multiple economic scenarios is £133m, of which £97m relates to the severe downside scenario (5 April 2018: £110m / £85m)

Economic variables (%) Central scenario Upside scenario Downside scenarioSevere downside

scenario

UK GDP growth 1.8 2.3 1.0 (0.1)

Unemployment rate 4.3 3.8 5.5 8.3

House price growth 2.4 5.0 (2.4) (5.2)

Base rate 1.1 2.2 0.1 3.5

Weight 50 20 20 10

Key economic variables used in the economic scenarios: average annual values over the period May 2019 to April 2024

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6.0 5.3 4.9 4.5

RBS Lloyds Barclays Nationwide San UK

4.9

4.53

32.4

16.2 13.9 13.3 12.6

Nationwide RBS Lloyds San UK Barclays

Maintaining strong capital ratios

Movement in CET1 ratio (%)

Profits enhanced capital ratios

Movement in UK leverage ratio (%)

Peer group CET1 ratios (%)2

Continue to benchmark well against peers

Peer group UK leverage ratios (%)2

0.3%

1 The ‘other’ category includes any regulatory adjustments and deductions made to capital resources. 2Peer group as at 31 March 2019 on an end point basis where published. 3 Post redemption of Additional Tier 1 capital instrument announced 24 April 2019.

▪ Revised residential mortgage IRB models and the finalised Basel III framework will increase RWAs significantly, but we expect our CET1 ratio to remain ahead of peers

2

1

1

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Managing MREL resources ahead of 2020 deadline

Meeting all existing and future capital regulatory requirements

MREL (£bn)Going concern capital, end point (£bn)

Capital in excess of regulatory requirements

1 Leverage buffers comprise: 0.35% additional leverage ratio buffer and 0.4% countercyclical leverage ratio buffer. 2 CET1 buffers comprise: 1% countercyclical capital buffer; 1% systemic risk buffer; and 2.5%

capital conservation buffer. 3 Based on 4 April 2019 balance sheet. 4 Senior non-preferred notes. 5 Redemption of Additional Tier 1 capital announced 24 April 2019.

4

5

5

5

CET1

AT1

Minimum

leverage requirement

Buffers

Pilllar 1

Pillar 2A

Buffers

11.5

9.4

4.3

End point Tier 1resources

UK leveragerequirement

CET1 requirement

CET1

AT1

Tier 2

SNP

6.5% UK

leverage exposure

Buffers

18.5

17.0

Current resources 2020 expected

requirements1

2

1,3

5

5

4

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Strong performance in the 2018 Bank of England stress test1

1 Bank of England, Financial Stability Report, November 2018, p22. 2 Office for National Statistics. 3Nationwide House Price Index.

▪ Nationwide remained profitable throughout the stressed

period; full distributions continued to be made on all Tier 1

capital instruments

▪ Low-point CET1 ratio of 14.1%, 620bps above the hurdle rate;

low-point UK leverage ratio of 5.1%

14.1

11.4 11.0 10.99.7

Nationwide Lloyds Barclays Santander

UK

RBS

Low-point CET1 Hurdle rate

▪ The FPC stated the 2018 stress test was sufficiently severe

to encompass the outcomes based on ‘worst case’

assumptions about the challenges the UK economy could

face in the event of a cliff-edge Brexit

Projected low-point CET1 capital ratios in the stress scenario (%)

Economic variables (%)2018

scenario1

Global

financial crisis1

2018

Actual

UK GDP growth (4.75) (6.25) 1.42

Peak unemployment rate 9.5 8.0 4.12

House price growth (33.0) (17.0) 1.33

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14.4 12.5

8.9 12.0

3.5 2.4

26.8 26.9

04 Apr 2018 04 Apr 2019

Cash Government bonds Other securities Total

Strong liquidity position and continued presence in wholesale funding market

Liquid assets (£ billion)1

▪ Wholesale funding increased by £2.4bn to £61.2bn during the period, primarily in maturities of less than one year. This additional funding is reflected in the increase in Nationwide’s wholesale funding ratio

▪ Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) increased to 150.2% (4 Apr 2018: 130.3%). Nationwide continues to manage its liquidity against its internal risk appetite, which is more prudent than regulatory requirements

1 All figures sterling equivalent. 2 Balances include all RMBS held by the Society which can be monetised through sale or repo.

High quality liquid asset buffer

Key ratios (%) 2018 2019

Liquidity coverage ratio 130.3 150.2

Net stable funding ratio 131.0 130.5

Wholesale funding ratio 28.2 28.6

2

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Strong credit ratings position

Senior preferred Outlook

Standard & Poor’s (S&P) A Positive

Moody’s Aa3 Negative

Fitch A+ RWN1

▪ S&P affirmed positive outlook in November 20182

▪ Moody’s affirmed Nationwide’s long and short term ratings in

February 20193. Moody’s changed the Society’s outlook to negative

from stable in October 20184

▪ In March 2019, Fitch changed Nationwide’s long term Issuer

Default Rating outlook to rating watch negative from stable in a

sector-wide action for all UK banks relating to Brexit uncertainty5

Credit ratings reflect robust business model

Rating Latest update

MSCI BB Apr 19

Sustainalytics7 18.6 Apr 19

Oekom C – PRIME Aug 18

Continue to develop our ESG6 ratings strategy

▪ We have engaged with a number of ESG rating agencies over the

year. We will look to improve our ESG ratings through better

disclosure and increased commitment from the Society, including:

▪ Publishing our first Responsible Business Report

▪ Creating an executive Responsible Business Committee to

oversee our future sustainability strategy

▪ Signing up to the UN Global Compact, and exploring how we

can align our activities to the UN Sustainable Development

Goals

1 RWN: Rating Watch Negative. 2 S&P Global Ratings Credit Opinion, 6 Nov 2018. 3 Moody’s Investors Service Credit Opinion, 18 Feb 2019. 4 Moody’s Investors Service Rating Action, 26 Oct 2018.5 Fitch Ratings Press Release, ‘Fitch places Long-Term IDR’s of 19 UK Banking Groups on Ratings Watch Negative’, 1 Mar 2019. 6 ESG: Environmental, Social and Governance. 7 Rating corresponds to material ESG

risk that has not been or cannot be managed. Nationwide’s score of 18.6/100 indicates that Nationwide is considered to be at low risk of experiencing material financial impacts from ESG factors.

Page 23: Annual Results Presentation 2018-19 | Nationwide€¦ · 5 Profits in line with expectations as we invest for the future Underlying profit before tax1 (£m) £977m £788m £227m 2018

Economic outlook

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The UK economy has slowed, but households have proved relatively resilient

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Housing market has remained broadly stable, despite weak survey data

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London and South East the main driver behind recent house price slowdown

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Recent developments in mortgage lending and household deposit markets

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Summary

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No. 1 for customer satisfaction in peer group1

Joint 5th in UK Customer Service Index2

Which? Banking Brand of the Year 2018

UK leverage ratio of 4.9%

Broadly flat costs (excluding tech investment)

Over £100m of sustainable saves

UK’s most trusted financial brand3

Joint top for brand consideration3

11 community boards supported over 100

local housing projects

1 in 5 current account switchers4

Helped a record 77,000 first-time buyers

Member financial benefit of £705m

90% growth in mobile app users over the

past two years

79% employee engagement, above the high

performing benchmark

Commenced recruitment of up to 1000 data

and digital roles

1 © Ipsos MORI 2019, Financial Research Survey (FRS) measure, as defined in the glossary (slide 32). 2 Institute of Customer Service’s UK Customer Satisfaction Index. 3 Nationwide Brand and Advertising

tracker (slide 32). Joint top for brand consideration with Halifax. 4 Source: Pay.UK monthly CASS data, 12m to March 2019.

Building society, nationwide

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Q&A

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Contacts

Alex Wall

Head of Investor Relations, Rating Agencies & Capital

[email protected]

0845 602 9053

Nationwide Treasury Mailbox

[email protected]

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Glossary

Measure Definition

Net satisfaction in core products

(slides 4, 6, 25)

© Ipsos MORI 2019, Financial Research Survey (FRS), 12 months ending March 2019, c.60,000 adults surveyed per

annum, proportion of extremely/very satisfied customers minus proportion of extremely/very/fairly dissatisfied

customers summed across main current account, mortgage and savings. Peer group defined as providers with main

current account market share >4% (Barclays, Halifax, HSBC, Lloyds Bank, NatWest, Santander and TSB).

Net satisfaction in core products

(slide 7)

© Ipsos MORI 2019, Financial Research Survey (FRS), 12 month rolling data from March 2016 to March 2019,

c.60,000 adults surveyed per annum, proportion of extremely/very satisfied customers minus proportion of

extremely/very/fairly dissatisfied customers summed across main current account, mortgage and savings. Peer

group defined as providers with main current account market share >4% (Barclays, Halifax, HSBC, Lloyds Bank,

NatWest, Santander and TSB). Prior to April 2017, peer group defined as providers with main current account

market share >6% (Barclays, Halifax, HSBC, Lloyds Bank, NatWest and Santander).

Trust (slides 4, 6, 25) and

brand consideration (slide 25)

Nationwide Brand and Advertising tracker compiled by Independent Research Agency, based on all consumer

responses, 12 months ending March 2016 to 12 months ending March 2019. Financial brands included Nationwide,

Barclays, Co-operative Bank, First Direct, Halifax, HSBC, Lloyds Bank, NatWest, TSB and Santander.

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DisclaimerThis presentation has been prepared by and is the property of

Nationwide Building Society (“Nationwide”). By attending this

presentation or accepting this document you represent, warrant

and agree that (i) you will not reproduce or transmit the

contents (in whole or in part) of this presentation by any means;

(ii) you have understood and agreed to the terms set out herein;

(iii) you consent to delivery of this presentation by electronic

transmission, if applicable; (iv) you are not a US Person, as

defined below; (v) if you are in the United Kingdom, then you are

a person who is (a) an investment professional within the

meaning of Article 19 (5)of the Financial Services and Markets

Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (“FPO”) or (b) a

high net worth entity falling with Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the

FPO; and (vi) if you are within the European Economic Area

(“EEA”), then you are a person who is a “qualified investor”

within the meaning of Article 2(1)(e) of EU Directive 2003/71/EC,

as amended (the “Prospectus Directive”).

This presentation shall not constitute or form part of any offer to

sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or subscribe for any

securities. Any securities subsequently issued by Nationwide will

not be registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933,

as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the securities laws of any

state or any other jurisdiction of the United States. Any securities

subsequently issued by Nationwide may not be offered or sold

within the United States except pursuant to an exemption from,

or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements

of the Securities Act.

NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO ANY US PERSON (AS SUCH TERM IS

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arithmetic totals of such data.