Annual Results Presentation 2018-19 | Nationwide€¦ · 5 Profits in line with expectations as we...
Transcript of Annual Results Presentation 2018-19 | Nationwide€¦ · 5 Profits in line with expectations as we...
Highlights
3
Our purpose is building society, nationwide
Built to Lastkeeping our Society and our
members’ money safe
Building Thriving Membership helping more members make more
of their money
Building a National Treasure
supporting communities and making a
difference
Building PRIDE creating the right culture to do
the best for our members
Building Legendary Service
striving to serve our members
better every day
4
Highlights
1 © Ipsos MORI 2019, Financial Research Survey (FRS) measure, as defined in the glossary (slide 32). 2 Nationwide Brand and Advertising tracker (see slide 32). 3 Sources: Pay.UK monthly CASS data,
12 months to March 2019. 4 2018 comparative has been restated to reflect a change in the components of underlying profit.
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Profits in line with expectations as we invest for the future
Underlying profit before tax1 (£m)
£977m£788m
£227m
2018 2019
Member financial benefit2 (£m)
1 Comparatives have been restated to reflect changes to the definition of underlying profit. Underlying profit now contains the Bank Levy and FSCS management expenses, which were previously excluded. 2 Member financial benefit is quantified as our interest rate differential plus member incentives and reduced fees.
▪ Profit includes a charge of £227m for asset write-offs and additional investment in technology
£560m£705m
2018 2019
6
We are delivering against our commitments to members
1 © Ipsos MORI 2019, Financial Research Survey (FRS) measure, as defined in the glossary (slide 32) 2 Institute of Customer Service’s UK Customer Satisfaction Index (UK CSI), January 2019 3 Engaged
members have at least one of their main current account, a mortgage with >£5,000 balance, or savings with >£,1000 balance with us. Committed members have two or more of our products, of which at
least one of which is an engaged membership product.
Measure Target2019
performance
Outstanding service Customer satisfaction
FRS: 1st + 4%
in our peer group
UK CSI: UK top 5
1st + 4.8%1
Joint 5th2
Value for members
Member financial benefit
Engaged members3
Committed members3
At least £400m pa
10m by 2022
4m by 2022
£705m
9.2m
3.4m
Financial strength UK leverage ratio > 4.5% 4.9%
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Leading our peer group for service and trust
More members than ever before receiving leading service
More members are doing more with us
Customer satisfaction vs
peer group average2
1 Committed members have two or more of our products, at least one of which is their main current account, a mortgage with >£5,000 balance, or savings with >£1,000 balance. 2 © Ipsos MORI 2019,
Financial Research Survey (FRS) measure, as defined in the glossary (slide 32). 3 Source: Nationwide Brand and Advertising tracker, as defined in the glossary (slide 32).
Total members (m) Committed members1 (m)
14.815.1
15.515.9
2016 2017 2018 2019
3.0 3.1 3.23.4
2016 2017 2018 2019
Trust vs
competitor average3
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Mar
2016
Mar
2017
Mar
2018
Mar
2019
NationwideCompetitor group
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
Mar
2016
Mar
2017
Mar
2018
Mar
2019
NationwidePeer group
8
Growth in member deposits,
growing market share
Strong performance in a competitive market
Change in deposit balances (£bn)Gross mortgage lending (£bn)
Robust current account openings,
and 1 in 5 switchers
First time buyers (‘000) Market share of growth in deposits (%)2
33.7 33.0 36.4
2017 2018 2019
5.83.5
6.0
2017 2018 2019
Current accounts opened (‘000)
Market share of current account switchers (%)1
795 816 794
2017 2018 2019
Record gross mortgage lending
and first time buyers
8.2 6.812.2
2017 2018 2019
75 76 77
2017 2018 2019
1 Source: Pay.UK monthly CASS data, 12 months to March 2019. 2 The basis for measuring market share has been adjusted to better reflect the position at the reporting date, with comparatives restated
accordingly.
18.0 18.921.5
2017 2018 2019
9
225440
653
2017 2018 2019
313512
732
2017 2018 2019
1.42.0
2.7
2017 2018 2019
Digital technologies are changing our
members’ behaviour
Our investment is already helping us to meet members’
changing needs and expectations
Mobile app users (m)
Our technology investment will support future growth and member service
Contactless payments (m)
+134%+90%
Mobile app logins (m)
Black Friday peak payments (m)
3.24.5 5.4
2016 2017 2018
▪ Service and proposition enhancements: new mobile functionality,
redesigned digital mortgage switching, and new Later Life
proposition
▪ Infrastructure: started the simplification of Unisys system and
complex integration and data landscapes, and improved the
resilience of mobile and payments services
▪ Innovation: partnering with 10x to build a new cloud-based banking
platform for Nationwide for Business, Open Banking for Good
initiative and venturing investments
▪ Recruitment: demand for new technology talent and started
recruitment
+190% +69%
Financials
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£ millions 20181 2019
Underlying income 3,132 3,170
Underlying costs (2,024) (2,254)
Of which asset write-offs and
additional technology spend0 (227)
Impairments (105) (113)
Other provisions (26) (15)
Underlying profit 977 788
Other items 0 45
Statutory profit 977 833
Cost income ratio 64.6% 71.1%
Profits in line with expectations as we invest in our long-term future
▪ £227m charge from asset write-offs and additional technology spend in line with our September announcement. Excluding this charge, our costs are broadly flat year on year
▪ £705m of member financial benefit (2017/18: £560m)
▪ Our financial performance framework sets an objective of an underlying profit of approx. £0.9bn - £1.3bn per annum over the cycle
Other items (£ millions) 2018 2019
FSCS release 1 9
Gains from derivatives and hedge accounting
(1) 36
Total 0 45
1 Comparatives have been restated to reflect changes to the definition of underlying profit. Underlying profit now contains the Bank Levy and FSCS management expenses, which were previously
excluded.
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Maintaining a low risk balance sheet
▪ Balance sheet growth driven by £8.6bn net mortgage lending and increase in liquidity due to strong retail deposit performance
▪ CET1 ratio increased to 32.4%
▪ UK leverage ratio stable at 4.9%. AT1 will be called on 20 June. Excluding AT1, the UK leverage ratio stands at 4.5%
Key ratios (%) 05 Apr 185 04 Apr 19
Liquidity coverage ratio 130.3 150.2
Wholesale funding ratio 28.2 28.6
CET1 ratio 30.4 32.4
UK leverage ratio 4.9 4.9
1 Balances are shown net of provisions. 2 Treasury assets (including liquidity portfolio). 3 Shares (member deposits) 4 Total members’ interests, subordinated liabilities and subscribed capital. 5 Comparison shown vs 5 April 2018 to reflect the impact of IFRS9.
£ billions 04 Apr 18IAS39
05 Apr 185
IFRS904 Apr 19 %
Residential mortgages1 177.2 177.1 185.8 78
Other lending 14.4 14.3 13.3 6
Liquidity2 30.9 30.9 32.7 13
Other assets 6.6 6.6 6.5 3
Assets 229.1 228.9 238.3 100
Retail deposits3 148.4 148.4 154.0 65
Wholesale funding 58.8 58.8 61.2 26
Other liabilities 3.7 3.7 3.0 1
Capital & reserves4 18.2 18.0 20.1 8
Liabilities 229.1 228.9 238.3 100
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Lower funding costs offset by mortgage competition
Margin has moderated in line with guidance
Net interest margin (bps)Net interest income1 (£m) & net interest margin (%)
Continued focus on long-term value for members
2,918 3,062 2,946 3,004 2,915
1.49 1.501.32 1.31 1.22
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
1,516 1,499 1,505 1,440 1,475
1.33 1.33 1.28 1.23 1.22
H2 16/17 H1 17/18 H2 17/18 H1 18/19 H2 18/19
Net interest income NIM
1 The opportunity has been taken to reclassify certain items previously included within net interest income to reflect better the nature of the transactions. As a result, gains and losses recognised on the disposal of investment securities classified as FVOCI (2018: available for sale) are now presented within net other income.
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1,979 1,982
2,209
45
49
15 61
13
45
112
11545
(32)
(103)
2018 Pay,
pension
& inflation
Business
volumes
Previous
strategic
investment
Other Full year
benefit
of prior year
sustainable
saves
New
sustainable
saves
Subtotal Investment
in
technology
Asset
write offs
2019
2,024 2,027
2,254
Delivering efficiency: flat operating costs support investment in infrastructure
▪ Reported costs have increased due to
technology investment and asset write-offs
▪ We have delivered a further £103m of in-year
sustainable saves this year. Including the full
year benefit of sustainable saves delivered
over the last two years, we have now
delivered around half our £500m target
▪ Our continued focus on efficiency has
allowed us to absorb inflationary increases,
volume growth and the impact of previous
strategic investment
▪ Our 5-year technology investment targets
the simplification of our technology estate
alongside investment in digital service and
data capabilities. Spend during the year has
concentrated on resilience, data
management and platform build to further
our digital offering
(32)
(103)
0.1%
Underlying costs (£m)
15
Low impairments reflect lending quality
Impairment charge (£m)
1 Comparison shown vs 5 April to reflect the impact of IFRS9. 2 Residential: percentage of loans, by number. Unsecured: percentage of balances, exc. charge offs. 3 UK Finance arrears: 3m+ arrears balance divided by latest contractual payment.
73
140
105
113
2016 2017 2018 2019
Residential lending Consumer bankingCommercial & other lending Treasury & other
Retail lending1
Residential Unsecured
05 Apr 18 04 Apr 19 05 Apr 18 04 Apr 19
Total balances (£m) 177,303 186,012 4,107 4,586
Provision balances (£m) 235 206 365 418
3 month+ arrears2 (%) 0.43 0.43 1.56 1.35
UKF industry average3 (%) 0.81 0.78
Total negative equity
balances (£m)261 203
Negative equity (£m) 38 30
161 This table excludes Fair Value through Profit or Loss (FVTPL) balances which totalled £72 million as at 4 April 2019 (5 April 2018: £189 million).
IFRS9 staging and provision analysis of loans
Residential mortgages1 Unsecured
05 Apr 18 04 Apr 19 05 Apr 18 04 Apr 19
Balance
(£m)
Share of
book
(%)
Provision
coverage
(%)
Balance
(£m)
Share of
book
(%)
Provision
coverage
(%)
Balance
(£m)
Share of
book
(%)
Provision
coverage
(%)
Balance
(£m)
Share of
book
(%)
Provision
coverage
(%)
Stage 1 156,647 88 0.01 176,203 95 0.02 3,264 79 0.8 3,538 77 0.8
Stage 2 19,072 11 0.9 8,479 5 1.5 575 14 17.9 761 17 17.3
Of which: >30 dpd 463 480 16 18
Stage 3 and POCI 1,395 1 3.4 1,438 <1 2.9 268 7 88.5 287 6 90.1
Of which: >90 dpd or in
possession740 760 61 59
Of which: charged off
accountsn.a n.a. 185 209
Total 177,114 0.13 185,940 0.11 4,107 8.9 4,586 9.1
Memo: Stage 3 coverage exc.
charged off accounts (%)n.a. n.a. 75 74
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IFRS9 economic scenarios
▪ The weighting applied to the downside scenarios has increased to 30% (5 April 2018: 20%) reflecting increased economic uncertainty
▪ Within this, the weight applied to the adjustment for the severe downside scenario has increased from 5% to 10%
▪ The impact on provisions of the multiple economic scenarios is £133m, of which £97m relates to the severe downside scenario (5 April 2018: £110m / £85m)
Economic variables (%) Central scenario Upside scenario Downside scenarioSevere downside
scenario
UK GDP growth 1.8 2.3 1.0 (0.1)
Unemployment rate 4.3 3.8 5.5 8.3
House price growth 2.4 5.0 (2.4) (5.2)
Base rate 1.1 2.2 0.1 3.5
Weight 50 20 20 10
Key economic variables used in the economic scenarios: average annual values over the period May 2019 to April 2024
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6.0 5.3 4.9 4.5
RBS Lloyds Barclays Nationwide San UK
4.9
4.53
32.4
16.2 13.9 13.3 12.6
Nationwide RBS Lloyds San UK Barclays
Maintaining strong capital ratios
Movement in CET1 ratio (%)
Profits enhanced capital ratios
Movement in UK leverage ratio (%)
Peer group CET1 ratios (%)2
Continue to benchmark well against peers
Peer group UK leverage ratios (%)2
0.3%
1 The ‘other’ category includes any regulatory adjustments and deductions made to capital resources. 2Peer group as at 31 March 2019 on an end point basis where published. 3 Post redemption of Additional Tier 1 capital instrument announced 24 April 2019.
▪ Revised residential mortgage IRB models and the finalised Basel III framework will increase RWAs significantly, but we expect our CET1 ratio to remain ahead of peers
2
1
1
19
Managing MREL resources ahead of 2020 deadline
Meeting all existing and future capital regulatory requirements
MREL (£bn)Going concern capital, end point (£bn)
Capital in excess of regulatory requirements
1 Leverage buffers comprise: 0.35% additional leverage ratio buffer and 0.4% countercyclical leverage ratio buffer. 2 CET1 buffers comprise: 1% countercyclical capital buffer; 1% systemic risk buffer; and 2.5%
capital conservation buffer. 3 Based on 4 April 2019 balance sheet. 4 Senior non-preferred notes. 5 Redemption of Additional Tier 1 capital announced 24 April 2019.
4
5
5
5
CET1
AT1
Minimum
leverage requirement
Buffers
Pilllar 1
Pillar 2A
Buffers
11.5
9.4
4.3
End point Tier 1resources
UK leveragerequirement
CET1 requirement
CET1
AT1
Tier 2
SNP
6.5% UK
leverage exposure
Buffers
18.5
17.0
Current resources 2020 expected
requirements1
2
1,3
5
5
4
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Strong performance in the 2018 Bank of England stress test1
1 Bank of England, Financial Stability Report, November 2018, p22. 2 Office for National Statistics. 3Nationwide House Price Index.
▪ Nationwide remained profitable throughout the stressed
period; full distributions continued to be made on all Tier 1
capital instruments
▪ Low-point CET1 ratio of 14.1%, 620bps above the hurdle rate;
low-point UK leverage ratio of 5.1%
14.1
11.4 11.0 10.99.7
Nationwide Lloyds Barclays Santander
UK
RBS
Low-point CET1 Hurdle rate
▪ The FPC stated the 2018 stress test was sufficiently severe
to encompass the outcomes based on ‘worst case’
assumptions about the challenges the UK economy could
face in the event of a cliff-edge Brexit
Projected low-point CET1 capital ratios in the stress scenario (%)
Economic variables (%)2018
scenario1
Global
financial crisis1
2018
Actual
UK GDP growth (4.75) (6.25) 1.42
Peak unemployment rate 9.5 8.0 4.12
House price growth (33.0) (17.0) 1.33
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14.4 12.5
8.9 12.0
3.5 2.4
26.8 26.9
04 Apr 2018 04 Apr 2019
Cash Government bonds Other securities Total
Strong liquidity position and continued presence in wholesale funding market
Liquid assets (£ billion)1
▪ Wholesale funding increased by £2.4bn to £61.2bn during the period, primarily in maturities of less than one year. This additional funding is reflected in the increase in Nationwide’s wholesale funding ratio
▪ Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) increased to 150.2% (4 Apr 2018: 130.3%). Nationwide continues to manage its liquidity against its internal risk appetite, which is more prudent than regulatory requirements
1 All figures sterling equivalent. 2 Balances include all RMBS held by the Society which can be monetised through sale or repo.
High quality liquid asset buffer
Key ratios (%) 2018 2019
Liquidity coverage ratio 130.3 150.2
Net stable funding ratio 131.0 130.5
Wholesale funding ratio 28.2 28.6
2
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Strong credit ratings position
Senior preferred Outlook
Standard & Poor’s (S&P) A Positive
Moody’s Aa3 Negative
Fitch A+ RWN1
▪ S&P affirmed positive outlook in November 20182
▪ Moody’s affirmed Nationwide’s long and short term ratings in
February 20193. Moody’s changed the Society’s outlook to negative
from stable in October 20184
▪ In March 2019, Fitch changed Nationwide’s long term Issuer
Default Rating outlook to rating watch negative from stable in a
sector-wide action for all UK banks relating to Brexit uncertainty5
Credit ratings reflect robust business model
Rating Latest update
MSCI BB Apr 19
Sustainalytics7 18.6 Apr 19
Oekom C – PRIME Aug 18
Continue to develop our ESG6 ratings strategy
▪ We have engaged with a number of ESG rating agencies over the
year. We will look to improve our ESG ratings through better
disclosure and increased commitment from the Society, including:
▪ Publishing our first Responsible Business Report
▪ Creating an executive Responsible Business Committee to
oversee our future sustainability strategy
▪ Signing up to the UN Global Compact, and exploring how we
can align our activities to the UN Sustainable Development
Goals
1 RWN: Rating Watch Negative. 2 S&P Global Ratings Credit Opinion, 6 Nov 2018. 3 Moody’s Investors Service Credit Opinion, 18 Feb 2019. 4 Moody’s Investors Service Rating Action, 26 Oct 2018.5 Fitch Ratings Press Release, ‘Fitch places Long-Term IDR’s of 19 UK Banking Groups on Ratings Watch Negative’, 1 Mar 2019. 6 ESG: Environmental, Social and Governance. 7 Rating corresponds to material ESG
risk that has not been or cannot be managed. Nationwide’s score of 18.6/100 indicates that Nationwide is considered to be at low risk of experiencing material financial impacts from ESG factors.
Economic outlook
24
The UK economy has slowed, but households have proved relatively resilient
25
Housing market has remained broadly stable, despite weak survey data
26
London and South East the main driver behind recent house price slowdown
27
Recent developments in mortgage lending and household deposit markets
Summary
29
No. 1 for customer satisfaction in peer group1
Joint 5th in UK Customer Service Index2
Which? Banking Brand of the Year 2018
UK leverage ratio of 4.9%
Broadly flat costs (excluding tech investment)
Over £100m of sustainable saves
UK’s most trusted financial brand3
Joint top for brand consideration3
11 community boards supported over 100
local housing projects
1 in 5 current account switchers4
Helped a record 77,000 first-time buyers
Member financial benefit of £705m
90% growth in mobile app users over the
past two years
79% employee engagement, above the high
performing benchmark
Commenced recruitment of up to 1000 data
and digital roles
1 © Ipsos MORI 2019, Financial Research Survey (FRS) measure, as defined in the glossary (slide 32). 2 Institute of Customer Service’s UK Customer Satisfaction Index. 3 Nationwide Brand and Advertising
tracker (slide 32). Joint top for brand consideration with Halifax. 4 Source: Pay.UK monthly CASS data, 12m to March 2019.
Building society, nationwide
Q&A
31
Contacts
Alex Wall
Head of Investor Relations, Rating Agencies & Capital
0845 602 9053
Nationwide Treasury Mailbox
32
Glossary
Measure Definition
Net satisfaction in core products
(slides 4, 6, 25)
© Ipsos MORI 2019, Financial Research Survey (FRS), 12 months ending March 2019, c.60,000 adults surveyed per
annum, proportion of extremely/very satisfied customers minus proportion of extremely/very/fairly dissatisfied
customers summed across main current account, mortgage and savings. Peer group defined as providers with main
current account market share >4% (Barclays, Halifax, HSBC, Lloyds Bank, NatWest, Santander and TSB).
Net satisfaction in core products
(slide 7)
© Ipsos MORI 2019, Financial Research Survey (FRS), 12 month rolling data from March 2016 to March 2019,
c.60,000 adults surveyed per annum, proportion of extremely/very satisfied customers minus proportion of
extremely/very/fairly dissatisfied customers summed across main current account, mortgage and savings. Peer
group defined as providers with main current account market share >4% (Barclays, Halifax, HSBC, Lloyds Bank,
NatWest, Santander and TSB). Prior to April 2017, peer group defined as providers with main current account
market share >6% (Barclays, Halifax, HSBC, Lloyds Bank, NatWest and Santander).
Trust (slides 4, 6, 25) and
brand consideration (slide 25)
Nationwide Brand and Advertising tracker compiled by Independent Research Agency, based on all consumer
responses, 12 months ending March 2016 to 12 months ending March 2019. Financial brands included Nationwide,
Barclays, Co-operative Bank, First Direct, Halifax, HSBC, Lloyds Bank, NatWest, TSB and Santander.
33
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