Annual Report ME G4 15 Mar 2012
Transcript of Annual Report ME G4 15 Mar 2012
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CPWF Project Annual Report
Project Leader: Zahirul Haque Khan
Project Number: G4
Project Title: G4. Assessment of the impact of anticipated externaldrivers of change on water resources of the coastal zone
Reporting Period: May 25, 2011 to March 15, 2011
Report Serial Number:G4_CPWF_PPR-1_12_03_15
Starting Date: May 25, 2011
Completion Date: April 30, 2014
Date: 15/03/2012
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Contents
Contents ............................................................................................................................................... 2
Section 1: Research .............................................................................................................................. 3
1.1. What were your teams main activities over the last twelve months? .................................... 3
1.2. Adjustments to your research questions .................................................................................. 61.3. Describe how (research) best bets are evolving based on interaction with potential users
and on accumulated learning by your project. .................................................................................... 9
1.4. Surprise and success ............................................................................................................... 11
Section 2: Outputs and programmatic contributions ......................................................................... 12
2.1. Present your projects milestone plan .................................................................................... 12
2.2. Contributions to and from the BDC and its projects, joint work ............................................ 14
2.3. Partnerships ............................................................................................................................ 14
2.4. Gender and diversity integration ............................................................................................ 15
2.5. Contribution to and from Topic Working Groups (TWG) ....................................................... 15
2.6. Research publications and communication outputs .............................................................. 16
2.7. Capacity building of people engaged in the project .................................................................... 17
2.8. Outreach to actors or actor groups identified in the OLMs or others ........................................ 18
Section 3: Outcomes ........................................................................................................................... 20
3.1. Working towards developmental goals ....................................................................................... 20
3.2. Your projects theory of change .................................................................................................. 20
3.3. Challenges when working towards developmental goals ........................................................... 20
Section 4: Financial Management ...................................................................................................... 21
4.1. Summary financial report ....................................................................................................... 21
4.2. Project leaders commentary on the summary financial report ............................................ 21
Section 5: ................................................................................................ Implications for future action
22
5.1. Response to previous change requests .................................................................................. 22
5.2. Emerging opportunities and risks ........................................................................................... 23
5.3. Assistance needed .................................................................................................................. 23
5.4. Feedback for improving this reporting format ....................................................................... 23
5.5. Additional comments .............................................................................................................. 23
Annexes .............................................................................................................................................. 24
Annex 1: Updated Project Workbook ................................................................................................. 24
Annex 2: Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) ........................................................................................ 24
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Section 1: Research
1.1. What were your teams main activities over the last twelve months?
Selection of the study area: The study area was selected at the Launching Workshop of GBDC ina participatory approach considering salinity level, present agriculture and aquaculture practice
in the polder system and domain of the Ganges basin. The study area of G4 includes the coastal
zone of Ganges river in Bangladesh part for analysis of flooding, storm surge and salinity in
general but polder 3, 30 and 43/2f in particular. The detailed analysis on salinity, water
availability, storage capacity of drainage khals in the polders for irrigation, storm surge and
drainage congestion will be carried out for these specific polders (3, 30 & 43/2F).
Figure: Map showing the study location
Literature Review: Coastal zone of Bangladesh is the zone of numerous natural resources,
including freshwater, soil, forest, salt, wind, solar energy, wildlife as well as oil/gas, sand and
minerals. At the same time the area is densely populated with 52% of the population belowabsolute poverty line. The coastal zone is prone to multiple threats such as cyclones, storm
surges, floods and above all, climate change. Scarcity of drinking water, land erosion, the high
groundwater arsenic content, water logging, water and soil salinity and various forms of
pollution have also slowed down social and economic developments. The government has
identified the zone as an agro-ecologically disadvantaged region (GoB, 2005).
A number of completed and ongoing studies in the southwest and south-central coastal zones
of Bangladesh have been discussed in this review process. These include: Integrated
Environmental Management: A Case Study on Shrimp-paddy Land Use Strategies in the
Southwest of Bangladesh by EGIS in 2001, Khulna Jessore Drainage Rehabilitation Project
(KJDRP) by BWDB, Southwest Area Integrated Water Resources Planning and Management(SWIWRPMP) by BWDB and Integrated Planning for Sustainable Water Management (IPSWAM)
by BWDB and so on.
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In KJDRP, the drainage system in the south-west region of Bangladesh was assessed and
improvement of the system was suggested. It also suggested a detailed and integrated water
management study for the whole southwest region. SWIWRPMP recommended plan for
improving the productivity and sustainability of the existing Flood Control and Drainage and
Irrigation schemes while strengthening the institutions that are responsible for service delivery.The IPSWAM programme developed an integrated planning for sustainable water resources
management methodology.
Past and present land use practices in the study area have been discussed in this review
illustrating how land use have been changed from early twentieth century to 1950s, 60s, 70s,
80s and 90s. The drainage and salinity of the water resources in existing and climate change
conditions have been analyzed in details. With increase in sea surface level, salinity intrusion is
expected to aggravate in low lying coastal areas throughout the world (Bates et al., 2008). For
Bangladesh the salinity intrusion is likely to be more severe with decreasing fresh water flow
from Himalayan rivers predicted for dry season (dry season getting drier) and the gradual rise insea level (Cruz et al., 2007). A 2007 report by UNESCO, "Case Studies on Climate Change and
World Heritage" has stated that sea level rise combined with other forms of anthropogenic
stress on the Sundarbans, could lead to the destruction of 75% of the Sundarbans mangroves.
Water management in the southwest region will be a delicate issue for the future years in
context of the impacts of climate change. The studies covered impact of climate change on
drainage and salinity intrusion in the coastal Ganges. However, those studies used global
climate change projections from IPCC and other literature and did not downscale climate data
from GCM and RCMs for coastal area of the Ganges region. Moreover, the impacts of other
external drivers of change on water resources were not assessed and also future scenarios in
combination of drivers also were not developed. The most important issues to know theavailable surface water resources at present and in future in different scenarios for proper
planning of water use in enhancing agriculture production for food security.
Survey and data collection: We have made plans for detailed survey in the three selectedpolders. According to the plan, IWM survey team is measuring data at twelve water level
stations, six water flow stations and twenty three stations salinity stations in khals inside polder
3, 30 and 43/2F and peripheral rivers. Moreover, cross-sections of khals and embankments,
topography, land-use, water regulators and structures are also being surveyed. Water level and
salinity data are also being collected from various secondary sources such as BIWTA, BWDB,
SRDI and other institutes. Field data and information is needed to understand the prevailing
problems and characterize the study area.
Figure: Salnity survey and data collection
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Figure: Water level survey and data collection
Field visits to identify the existing issues and potential solutions: Several field visits were
carried out by G4 team for community consultation and stakeholder discussions to assess theimportant issues in water sector and identify the anticipated external drivers of change. These
issues will help assessing the existing problems in the study area and impacts of key external
drivers on water resources.
Figure: Focus group discussions in the selected polders
List of the key external drivers: Innovative strategies should be designed for sustainable food
and livelihood security and economic growth with an eye to future conditions, not just current
conditions. This involves meta-analysis of existing data and documents and scenario modeling
to understand the impacts of the external drivers on the existing/ future systems. Identificationof the external drivers of change and its prioritization are very important issues for G4. G4 has
carried out questionnaire survey, FGDs and a triangulation workshop to identify the list of the
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key external drivers.
Climate modelling: Climate change would have severe impacts on infrastructure, food and
livelihood security of the country. Low-lying coastal areas and costal polders in the Ganges
delta are at risks of tidal floods, water-logging and severe cyclone induced storm surges. Crops
and the livelihoods of the rural poor in low-lying coastal areas are also devastated by salinewater intrusion. All these climate related risks will be exacerbated if the future climate becomes
warmer and wetter and goes beyond historical variations. Selection of climate change models,
validation and downscaling of regional climate models, establishment of baseline conditions as
well as future projections are being carried out by G4. These results will help assessing the
impact of climate change in the study area.
Selection and calibration of the flow and salinity model: The flow and salinity models have
been selected. The south-west regional model (SWRM) developed by MIKE 11 modelling system
is being used for water flow modelling while combination of SWRM and the Bay of Bengal (BoB)
Model are being used for salinity modelling. G4 is now working on calibration and validation of
the flow and salinity models. These models will enable G4 to establish baseline condition of
water flow and salinity in the coastal region of the Ganges delta in Bangladesh and assess thelikely impacts of the external drivers on water flow and salinity.
1.2. Adjustments to your research questions
1. What are the key external drivers of change in the hydrology and performance of the system? How
various scenarios can be devised with combination of the key external drivers?
The hydrologic system in the coastal regions of Bangladesh is very vulnerable to impact of external
drivers. The performance of the system varies seasonally, annually and especially during the occurrenceof extreme events.
The project developed a comprehensive list of external drivers based on past researches and literature
review. The TWG on global drivers identified (1) Population, (2) Climate change, (3) Economics and
trade and (4) Politics and institutions as the major global drivers that will affect water resources and
food security. These broad categories of drivers have also been considered in the study. The list was
then put under a well designed priority and ranking criteria for identification of the key drivers and
circulated among experts, stakeholders and peers. The preliminary results of the questionnaire survey
show that population growth is the major external driver that will affect water resources in the region.
Climate change induced sea level rise, change in water management practices, water sharing practices
between riparian countries and water infrastructure development have been identified as other key
drivers. Identification of these key external drivers of change is very important for achieving the projectgoals since the main objective of G4 is to assess the effect of these drivers on water resources in the
coastal Ganges basin.
Stakeholder consultation and Focus group discussions were carried out in the selected polders to assess
the important issues in water resources management and to identify the anticipated external drivers of
change. Group discussions and interviews indicate that drainage congestion, khal leasing and
encroachment, loss of connectivity between river and floodplain, destruction of fish habitat,
sedimentation of river beds, salinity intrusion and population growth are the major issues in Polder-30.
The key issues in Polder-3 are salinity intrusion, reduction in freshwater flow due to upstream
interventions, conflict between gher owners and farmers, polder overtopping during spring tide,
drinking water availability, outbreak of shrimp virus and so on. In Polder 43/2F the main issues are
inadequate embankment height, scarcity of water during dry seasons, insufficient water controlstructures, permanent leasing of khals, loss of linkage of khals and water management problems. These
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findings along with those from the questionnaire survey will enable G4 to identify and prioritize external
drivers of change.
The summary of findings of the questionnaire survey and stakeholder consultations will be triangulated
and integrated through a workshop attended by the major professionals and stakeholders (including
the project leaders of G1, G2, G3 and G5). It is expected that the workshop will facilitate discussion
among representatives from different fields, and help arrive at a consensus on the external drivers andtheir priorities. The future scenarios simulated in this study will be devised considering combination of
various drivers.
2. What are the effects of external drivers and scenarios on flooding, submergence, sedimentation,
salinity intrusion and water availability in the different polders of the coastal zone?
The project will review and evaluate models available in-house, with the partner organizations and
globally. Based on the performance and suitability appropriate models will be selected for studying the
effects of the drivers of changes. For flood, submergence, sedimentation and salinity intrusion the study
will use the GBM basin model, regional models, the Bay of Bengal and RCM models based on MIKE
basin, MIKE 11, and MIKE 21FM. (Details are available in Annex-I). Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)
and Water Evaluation And Planning Process (WEAP) models will be used for assessing the impacts ofland-use changes on flow. The effect of storm surges of varying intensities and frequencies on polder
overtopping and inundation will be assessed using the Bay of Bengal model based on MIKE 21. These
models will be utilized to simulate the baseline and projected conditions in 2020, 2030 and 2050. The
study will be conducted at the regional level for the coastal regions of Bangladesh as well as in three
selected polders (Polder No.3, 31 & 43/2F see Figure 1: Study area map of G4). The projection years and
the polders have been selected during the proposal development workshop through communication
among the projects. Water flow, salinity, sediment and storm surge model results will be calibrated
with respect to measured data and verified in consultation with the local communities. The preliminary
findings will be discussed with G1, G2 and G3 (through G5) to obtain their feedbacks which will be
incorporated in G4 research for further refinement of the model results.
3. What are the adaptation measures and strategies for different anticipated changes? What are the
implications of adaptation strategies for different anticipated changes?
It is now well recognised that the existing adaptation strategies are inadequate to cope up with the
enhanced magnitude and increased frequency of the impacts of the anticipated changes. The project
shall employ a resilience framework to study the future impacts and devise appropriate short, medium
and long-term adaptation strategies. In the beginning, the resilience of different agro-hydrological
system for the southwest region and indentified polders will be analyzed. Based on the resilience and
the anticipated impacts different adaptation strategies will be devised such as improvement of drainage
canals, operation of sluices, strengthening of embankments, dredging, and restoration of dry season
freshwater flow for flushing salinity as well as restoration of the ecosystem. Specific adaptation
strategies for choice and selection of the crops/aquaculture during different seasons and their salinityand submergence tolerance will be developed in consultation with G2. Collaboration shall be developed
with G3 and G5 projects for information on community/ institutional management of the resources and
the operation of the water infrastructure and its governance at the polder level. Implications of these
adaptation strategies will be determined using the models and stakeholder consultation. Polder-specific
impacts and economic implications will be also analyzed. These upscaling and downscaling will be
conducted through G5. Moreover, linkage with TWG on resilience will be established through G5 in
order to devise resilience strategies.
4. What are the implications of policy changes and its applications to cope with anticipated changes?
What strategies can be put in place to influence policy makers and stakeholders to adapt to
anticipated changes?The implications of major national policies including the national water policies, agricultural policy,
environment policy, disaster management policy, climate change adaptation strategy and action plan
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(BCCSAP), and water sharing agreements will be reviewed to identified their specific relevance to the
present context and to determine what changes may be effective in coping with the anticipated
changes. Specific development programs like IPSWAM, WAMIP, and CEIP, and those being conducted
by LGED, Department of Fisheries and other organizations will be also analyzed to identify possible
policy changes.
The project shall then endeavour to develop potential strategies for consideration of the policymakers
and major stakeholders involving G5. These strategies, both short and long term, shall be specific to the
identified polders, for the south west region as a whole and Bangladesh. The project shall conduct a
number of well-designed and targeted policy dialogues, round tables, one-to-one meetings with the key
change agents and polder level meetings with the key stakeholders for familiarising them with the
external drivers of change and their potential future impacts on water resources. These upscaling and
downscaling will be conducted through G5. The project shall also develop high quality policy and media
briefs, and electronic and published communication material for facilitating the informed decisions on
policy changes. Extensive field visits and interaction meetings of the water control agencies and
policymakers will be conducted to influence policymakers and stakeholders to adapt to anticipated
changes. National stakeholder workshops and local training sessions will be conducted to disseminatethe effects of anticipated changes on water resources and importance of changing the policies to cope
with anticipated changes.
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1.3. Describe how (research) best bets are evolving based on interactionwith potential users and on accumulated learning by your project.
The study area of the project includes the coastal zone of Ganges delta in Bangladesh. However, three
specific polders were selected in the area for detailed analysis. These polders are situated in the highsalinity zone (polder 3), medium salinity zone (polder 30) and low salinity zone (polder 43/2F). From
field visits, FGDs and data analysis it has been found that the problems in these polders are diversified.
In Polder 3, salinity is a major problem for agriculture as well as for drinking purpose. This polder is
surrounded by Ichhamoti River, Kansiali River and Habra Khal. There are agricultural land as well as
shrimp ghers in this polder. Salinity in these rivers rises above 20ppt in dry period. The salinity in the
Ichhamoti and Kansiali rivers starts dropping in mid-June and drops below 5 ppt in mid-July. However,
water in Habra khal remains saline because there is lack of freshwater flow from the upstream. In this
polder three agricultural crops are not possible due to salinity. But combination of shrimp and
Transplanted -aman rice is possible because of freshwater availability during Kharif-II season. Local
people have constructed a large number of informal cuts and pipes to flush saline water for shrimp
culture. Fishers flush the shrimps fields by river water in every spring tide i.e. during new and fullmoon. However, these cuts and pipes hamper safety of the polder and generate huge social problems
and conflicts between BWDB and fishers. The ground reality is that the present scenario is very much
different from the 1970s when BWDB constructed the polders and drainage system. Proper
management and improvement of drainage and flushing system can be ensured by revisiting the
problems and water infrastructure of the area. Building some planned flushing sluices, excavation of the
canals and planned agriculture-aquaculture system will ensure enhanced production of agriculture and
aquaculture.
Rotational cropping system: agriculture and
aquaculture at Debhata, Polder-3
Internal canals to carry saline water to the ghers
at Shannashir Chak Polder-3 on 9th June 2011
Shrimp ghers at Shannashir Chak, Polder-3
Internal canals to carry saline water to the ghers
at Shannashir Chak, Polder-3 on 16th Aug 2011
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In polder 30, water-logging is the major problem. This problem has arisen due to sedimentation of the
riverbeds and drainage khals. Khals have been leased to people who have blocked them by net-pata,
cross-dams etc. for fish-culture or filled them up for agriculture. The riverbeds have silted up because of
reduced upstream flow and polderization of the floodplains. Sediment carried by sea water during
flood tide cannot be flushed by upstream flow and deposit on the riverbed. Tidal river management
(TRM) can be a good solution for water logging problem in this polder. TRM solved the water-logging
problem in polder-24. Local people are also interested in TRM if proper crop compensation is ensured.
Drainage congestion at Gangarampur, Polder-30
Blockage of khal by cross-dam in Polder-30
Polder raised by local people beside Pussur river
Sedimentation at outfall of regulator in Polder-30
Inadequate water flow in irrigation khals inPolder 43/2F
Inactive structure at Angulkata, Polder 43/2F
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In polder 43/2F, freshwater is available in the surrounding rivers. However, due to sedimentation and
blockage of the khal system irrigation water is not available during Rabi period. Most of the khals have
been silted up due to lack of maintenance and leasing. The connectivity of the khal system is also
hampered by unplanned roads. Moreover, existing water control structures are insufficient for the
polder. Providing more flushing sluices, excavation of existing water control structures, increasing
functionality of WMAs are potential solutions of the water problem in the area. Local people also
suggested raising of the polder heights and building more cyclone shelters because there were huge
losses in SIDR in this polder.
1.4. Surprise and success
Freshwater is available in the peripheral rivers of Polder-43/2F during Rabi, Kharif-I and Kharif-II
seasons. However, farmers cannot utilize the water to increase crop yield and crop intensity due to
inadequate water control structures and connectivity of the khal system. Freshwater can be made
available by improving irrigation and drainage system.
During community consultation, we were surprised to observe that local people have knowledge on
salinity level variation with time and they flush the water into the Khal system of the polder for
irrigation of T-aman in time without measuring the salinity level and they also know that at the
particular station water becomes saline at present in the early months of late monsoon compared to
past years. This phenomenon of salinity variation has been found in the analysis of collected data under
this project.
We are proud that we could adopt an innovative way of selecting external drivers through participation
of local community, stakeholders and experts of different disciplines. The G4 team developed a
comprehensive list of external drivers based on past researches, global literature review, interaction
with the major stakeholders and peers. This list was then put under a well designed priority and ranking
criteria for identification of the key external drivers and prioritization. Focus group discussions werecarried out in the selected polders to find the major issues prevailing there and find the external drivers
acting behind the issues. Finally the key external drivers are selected by a triangulation workshop.
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Section 2: Outputs and programmatic contributions
2.1. Present your projects milestone plan
Milestones = yourprogress markers Deadline ResponsibleInstitution ResponsibleProject StaffOutputsrequired by
other
projects?
Means ofverification,
(including links to
reports)
Status reporton delivery
of
milestones
Sites selected and
partners for
research and
planning
engagement
identified and
engaged
2011/08/30 IWM ZHK G1, G2, G3,
G5: Study
location
map
Map of selected
sites
MoU with
partners
Delivered
Project reports 2011/11/032012/03/18 IWM ZHK Workplan,data &
information
needed by
G1, G2, G3,
G5
Six/monthlyreports
Delivered
Identified external
drivers
2011/12/31 IWM ZHK G1, G2, G3,
G5: Review
and priority
ranking
List of selected
external drivers &
report
Will be
uploaded to
wiki soon1
Tour reports 2011/12/31
2012/03/29
IWM ZHK No Uploaded to
wikiMeeting minutes 2011/09/31
2011/12/31IWM ZHK No Delivered
Selected climate
change models
2011/11/30 IWFM-BUET AKMSI No List of selected
climate change
models
Model
selected, will
be included
in the report
on climate
change
model
Calibrated and
validated RCMs
2012/02/29 IWFM-BUET AKMSI No Report on model
development,calibration and
validation
Will be
included inthe report on
climate
change
model2
Baseline climate
condition
established
2012/03/31 IWFM-BUET AKMSI No Baseline data
(generated by
model)
Will be
included in
the report on
climate
change
model
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Establishment of
climate change
projections:
temperature,
precipitation, sea
level rise
2012/07/31 IWFM-BUET AKMSI No Temperature,
precipitation, sea
level rise data
(generated by
model) for
climate change
scenario in 2020,
2030 & 2050
Work in
progress, will
be included
in the report
on climate
change
model
Selected model for
flooding, drainage
congestion, water
flow, salinity and
storm surge
2011/12/31 IWM ZHK Report on
selected models
Was
presented in
the Inception
workshop of
GBDC
Final selection of
climate and
cross/boundary
flow data for
generating
boundary for flow
and salinity models
2012/03/31 IWM ZHK Data analysis
report
Selected
Developed
calibrated and
validated GBM
basin model,
SWRM and BoB
model
2012/02/29 IWM ZHK Report on model
development,
calibration and
validation
Work in
progress
1Carrying out FGDs for was not planned earlier. It was later included to select the list of the external
drivers in a more participatory way. This took more time and the whole process delayed than expected.
However, it is expected that the milestone will be achieved by March 2012.2 It took more time than anticipated to get approval from BUET authority and signing of the MoU. As a
result the climate change modelling works started later than expected. It will not affect overall progress
of the project.
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2.2. Contributions to and from the BDC and its projects, joint work
Contribution to other BDC projects Significance of your contribution to other BDC projects objectives
(i.e., outputs, outcomes)
1. The FGD results: problems and
potential solutions
Local peoples view on their problems and probable solutions will
help other Gs to have a better idea of the problems.2. Surface water salinity monitoring
inside the polders and in the
peripheral rivers
The salinity in the river and khal water varies over the year. G2
can plan their agriculture/aquaculture system in the polders on
the basis of these data. G3 can plan a good water governance
system using this information. Identification of the surface water
salinity condition will enable us to achieve the GBDC goal of
increasing the resilience of agricultural and aquaculture systems
in coastal Ganges.
Contribution from other BDC projects Significance of their contribution to your projects objectives (i.e.,
outputs, outcomes)
1.Bi/monthly meetings The bi/monthly meetings arranged by G5 have been immensely
helpful to review the progress and sharing information.Work carried out jointly Significance of the work carried out jointly to projects and BDC
objectives (i.e., outputs, outcomes)
1. Some surface water salinity
stations of G4 and soil salinity
stations of G2 have been established
ointly
The measurements of these stations will enable the researchers
to establish relationship between surface water and soil salinity.
This relationship will be beneficial to GBDC and other researches.
2. G4 and G3 members visited polder
3 and 30 jointly to carry out FGDs
with local farmers and fishers.
The FGDs were carried out to identify their problems and
potential solutions. The views of the local people have helped the
G3 and G4 team about the local conditions.
3. Selection of the study area The study polders have been selected with consultation with the
others Gs. This will help GBDC to have all the aspects(agriculture/aquaculture, water management, freshwater
availability) in the same polders.
Contribution to the BDC as a whole Significance of your contribution to the BDC as a whole
1. The FGD results: problems and
potential solutions
Local peoples view on their problems and probable solutions will
help the GBDC to have a better idea of the problems.
2. Climate change projections The climate change projections will help GBDC to have some idea
of the future climate scenario and plan accordingly.
2.3. Partnerships
It was an immense opportunity to work with the partners (IWMI, BWDB, IWFM/BUET). All the partnersshared their knowledge and experience in identifying the key external drivers. The questionnaire was
formatted in a meeting of IWM, BWDB and IWFM/BUET. IWMI researchers made necessary
modifications to the draft of the questionnaire. The G4 partners (along with some researchers of G3)
participated in the FGDs. BWDB field officials had extended enormous support for arranging the FGDs.
All the partners has important role in successful completion of the workshop for finalizing the external
drivers.
IWFM/BUET researchers are the pioneer in climate modelling in Bangladesh. IWM and IWFM/BUET
team jointly worked for downscaling of climate data and future climate projections. It helped in capacity
building of IWM junior staff in climate modelling.
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2.4. Gender and diversity integration
We carried out several FGDs in polders 3, 30 and 43/2F for identification of water issues in those
polders. Local farmers and fishers participated in the FGDs. We tried to ensure active participation of
female farmers and fishers. Sometimes, we had challenges to bring women participants in a large scale.
2.5. Contribution to and from Topic Working Groups (TWG)
Contribution to TWGs (specify) Significance of contribution to project and BDC objectives (i.e.,
outputs, outcomes)
1. Spatial Analysis and
Modelling/TWG
One of the objectives of the SAM/TWG is to develop and share
global data sets including climate reanalysis. Our freshwater
availability and salinity zoning maps in present and climate
change conditions may be useful in that context.
2.
3.
Contribution from any TWG (specify) Significance of contribution to project and BDC objectives (i.e.,
outputs, outcomes)1. Global Drivers /TWG The GD/TWG is expected to develop a new foresight
methodology to explore a range of possible future scenarios. G4
can use the methodology to generate future scenarios with
combinations of several external drivers for their modelling and
projection purpose.
2. Global Drivers /TWG We can use their projection of climate change and sea level rise.
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2.6. Research publications and communication outputs
Output Type
(see above)
Reference (Author, year, title/ output name, etc.) Target audience (as in OLM) How disseminated / promoted /
used
Any feedback on its
use, or how
monitored/ evaluated
Conference
and Seminar
Paper
Global Drivers that influences water productivity, food
security and livelihood of the local people in the coastal areas
of Ganges Basin, Khan et. al 2011
Other researchers IFWF3 paper presentation
Report Report on field visit and FGD in Polder 3 and 30 Researchers of G1, G2, G3
and other ongoing projects
GBDC Wiki
Report Report on field visit and FGD in Polder 43/2F Researchers of G1, G2, G3
and other ongoing projects
GBDC Wiki
Report Inception report of the project Researchers of G1, G2, G3
and other ongoing projects,
other basins of CPWF
Added to GBDC Inception Report
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2.7. Capacity building of people engaged in the project
FAMILY NAME, Given
Name
Gender Nationality Level (e.g., MSc, PhD), affiliated
University/ type of training
Research / thesis subject Output and/or OP*
Begum, Morsheda Female Bangladeshi M.Sc., BUET Impact of climate change on salinity intrusion in the
south/west region of Bangladesh (planned)
Training on salinity
modelling
Khan, Md. Nasim Al
Azad
Male Bangladeshi M.Sc., BUET Vulnerability assessment of the coastal polders for storm surge
flooding (planned)
Training on
storm/surge
modelling
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2.8. Outreach to actors or actor groups identified in the OLMs or others
Type of outreach activities (e.g. informal/
formal meeting, stakeholder consultation,
seminar, training, forum)
Actors/ Actor groups (taken from OLM or
any other newly identified target group).
How many participants (gender/ diversity
distribution)?
Dates, venue (location,
country)
Any feedback or how monitored/evaluated? Any
evidence that your outreach activities led to
some positive change?
Focus Group Discussion (Polder/30) Local farmers (3 women, 20 men) 18th September 2011,
Phultola, Batiaghata,Khulna, Bangladesh
To identify local problems of water resources and
probable solutions in a participatory way. Theparticipants became aware of our objective.
Focus Group Discussion (Polder/30) Local fishers (6 women, 9 men) 18th September 2011,
Kismat Phultala,
Batiaghata, Khulna,
Bangladesh
To identify local problems of water resources and
probable solutions in a participatory way. The
participants became aware of our objective.
Focus Group Discussion (Polder/3) Local farmers (2 women, 8 men) 19th September 2011,
Nalta, Satkhira,
Bangladesh
To identify local problems of water resources and
probable solutions in a participatory way. The
participants became aware of our objective.
Focus Group Discussion (Polder/3) Local fishers (15 men) 19th September 2011,
Bhara/Simla, Kaliganj,
Satkhira, Bangladesh
To identify local problems of water resources and
probable solutions in a participatory way. The
participants became aware of our objective.
Focus Group Discussion (Polder/43/2F) Local farmers (7 women, 15 men) 27th February, 2011,
Amtali, Barguna,
Bangladesh
To identify local problems of water resources and
probable solutions in a participatory way. The
participants became aware of our objective.
Opinion surveyfor selecting key external drivers
Experts and researchers To prioritize the key external drivers. Theparticipants became aware of our objective.
Interaction Meeting Chief Engineer, Khulna, BWDB 18th September, 2012,
BWDB, Khulna,
Bangladesh
He has realized the need of adaptation measured
to meet the consequence of external drivers for
water management in the polder and requested
the potential measures from the research for
preparing developing project proforma for
implementation.
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Interaction Meeting Dr. Nilufa Islam, Director (Technical),
Water Resources Planning Organization
(WARPO) and
Md. Saiful Hossain, Principal Scientific
Officer, Engineering Section, WARPO
23rd February, 2012,
IWM office, Dhaka,
Bangladesh
Understanding has been developed to assess the
likely changes of water resources in future. They
requested the research results to use in
preparing the regional plan at macro level.
Interaction Meeting Catherine, Deputy team leader, Delta
Plan 2100
7th March, 2012, IWM
office, Dhaka,
Bangladesh
Surface water resource assessment at present
condition and external rivers. She emphasized
the need of available water resources at present
and requested the results of this investigation for
their use in delta plan.
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Section 3: Outcomes
3.1. Working towards developmental goals
Awareness and understanding on the external drivers of change have already been developed among
farmers, BWDB, LGED, WARPO, Water Management Associations, local government institutions since
the project activities have been carried out through interaction meetings, field visits, focus group
discussions and workshops.
3.2.Your projects theory of change
Broader problems and their determinants have been ascertained in accordance with the problem tree.In the next step we established a set of outputs in relation to determinants.
Networking has been established with local farmers, ongoing projects, organizations, WMAs of polder
30 & 24, and local government institutions of polder 3 & 43/2F to exchange data, information,
knowledge and outputs.
The existing outcome Logic model (OLM) has been revisited and redesigned in accordance with the
Theory of Change.
3.3. Challenges when working towards developmental goals
CPWF can help in developing scenarios with the external drivers and building consensus with Gs and
stakeholders. Close interaction and cooperation with TWG-GD and Resilience is needed. CPWF can play
an effective and vital role to assist G4 in this perspective.
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Section 4: Financial Management
4.1. Summary financial reportTime
1 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 CompletionReport and Final
Audit for project
closureProgress
ReportProgress
Report 1Progress
Report 2Progress
Report1
Progress
Report 2Progress
Report 1Progress
Report 2(thousands of $US) US$ US$ US$ US$ US$ US$ US$ US$
1Value of tranche
payment received this
report period138,511
2Value of tranche
payments received to
date
138,511
3Value of expenditures
or report period123,088
4Cumulative value of
expenditures to date123,088
5Balance held against
cumulative tranche
payments15,423
6Value of committed
unds15,423*
* The first payment to IWFM/BUET (US$ 12,040) was made on Jan 17, 2012 and the first payment to IWMI (US$ 32,627) was
made on Jan 22, 2012.
I certify that the summary financial report is correct
Chief financial officer:
Date:
4.2. Project leaders commentary on the summary financial report
Please explain any significant commitments currently being held:
Commitment is held against payment to which partners or
providers?
Amount,
USDExpected date of
expenditure
The remuneration, travel and accommodation cost for the support staffs have exceeded the budget
because the surveying and data collection cost was high in the first year of the project.
The budgets for remuneration of consultant, stakeholder and reflection workshop were under/spent.
These items were spent for the remuneration, travel and accommodation of support staffs. These
expenditures were higher because we had to carry out extensive field survey and primary data collection
in the first year of the project.
1Adjust the dates to fit with our contract period
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Section 5: Implications for future action
5.1. Response to previous change requests
What were the requests made in the MT
evaluation of your Project Inception Report?
Describe and provide evidence of what you did to
address the issues
1. BL: Long-term water flow data in upper
Ganges basin (Indian part) is needed for
modelling of water resources in the Ganges
basin. IWMI is to take action to collect long
term water flow data preferably from
research stations, and other development
organizations by May 2012 if not possiblefrom Government sources.
The transboundary flow data in baseline condition
and for external drivers is needed for modelling of
water resources in the study area. IWMI is supposed
to provide the baseline data and data generated
from SWAT and WEAP model results.
2. MT: Regarding the OLM, suggest the farmers
or the respondents in the focus group
discussions and consultations should also be
included as actors. Focus group discussion is a
two way learning process- we get information
from them, and they learn from our analysis
of their responses. The change is they will
become more aware of the effects of externaldrivers to their sources of livelihoods.
OLM has been revised with farmers as actors. The
participation of farmers in the Focus group
discussions will enhance their perspective of
external drivers on their livelihood sources.
3. Update project workbook: write the status of
progress in the milestone plan
Updated
4. Prepare financial report and invoice for the 2nd
payment if not done so already
Done and sent with the invoice of the 2nd
payment.
5. Submit other documents that were not
included in the inception report: CVs of other
team members, signed LOA, 3rd party IP audit
The CVs were sent with the project proposal. Signed
MoUs with the partners have been submitted with
the Inception Report.
6. Tighten up the OTIP plan with implementation
in mind
We re-visited the OTIP and made it specific for
selected users .
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5.2. Emerging opportunities and risks
Emerging opportunities Implications for future
action
Output/OP
1.Results of climate projection by TWG-GD Use of data on climate
projections, enrichment of
literature review
Data, information, reports
2. GD-TWG will develop a new foresight
methodology to explore a range of possible
future scenarios
Improved methodology for
developing future scenarios
to be simulated by models
Development of scenarios. It
will help assessing the impact
of external drivers on water
resources
Emerging risks Implications for future
action
Output/OP
1. Triangulation of the results of our FGDs
with local community with the findings of
G2 and G3 is important. However, there is a
risk of timely and fruitful triangulation.
The risk may be minimized
by interaction and help of
G5 communication
Use of the results by other Gs.
5.3. Assistance needed
Assistance needed with By whom (e.g. TWGs and/or the
CPWF Research Team, Coordination
Project and/ or CPWF KM team)
Why is it important?
Methodology for
developing scenarios
TWG-GD TWG-GD is preparing a new
foresight methodology to explore a
range of possible future scenarios.It will enrich the scenario
generation methodology of G4
Assistance with M&E G5 and/or CPWF KM team It is important for assessing the
baseline and measure progress
Communication with other
Gs and upscaling and
outscaling of research
results
G5 G5 is providing good support for
communicating with the other Gs.
The communication with different
actors will help for achieving the
outcomes.
5.4. Feedback for improving this reporting format
5.5. Additional comments
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