Space Weather Services for Aviation:

Product Validation and Verification

 Annual Interagency Weather Research Review and Coordination MeetingAviation related Space Weather product verification

December , 2010

Rodney ViereckResearch Director, Space Weather Prediction Test-bed DirectorNOAA/NWS/NCEP/Space Weather Prediction Center

Outline

• Space W eather Prediction C enter (SW PC )

• B rief overview of space w eather

• D -R egion A bsorption Product (D -R A P)

• Product Description

• Recent Improvements

• Product Validation

• Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC)

• Brief overview of space weather

• D-Region Absorption Product (D-RAP)• Product Description

• Recent Improvements

• Product Validation

Space Weather Prediction Center

• It was formed in 1946 as the Radio Propagation Lab

• Currently the Space Weather Prediction Center is…– …one of the nine Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)– …within the National Weather Service (NWS)

• Today it has about 70 people– Forecast Center: Forecasters on duty 24/7 providing alerts,

watches, and warnings of space weather storms– Applied Research: Solar, heliosphere, magnetosphere,

ionosphere, thermosphere– Development: Transitioning new models and products to

operations,

• It was formed in 1946 as the Radio Propagation Lab

• Currently the Space Weather Prediction Center is…– …one of the nine Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)

– …within the National Weather Service (NWS)

• Today it has about 70 people

– Forecast Center: Forecasters on duty 24/7 providing alerts, watches, and warnings of space weather storms

– Applied Research: Solar, heliosphere, magnetosphere, ionosphere, thermosphere

– Development: Transitioning new models and products to operations,

Space Weather Services:

• Aviation• Polar route use – ~9,000 flights in 2009 • Next Generation Air Transportation System – GPS based• HF com, radio navigation, human radiation.

• GPS• Single biggest source of error is ionosphere• Strong growth in applications – surveying, drilling, precision agriculture, navigation, aviation

• Electric Utilities• Potential for significant disruption of service due to geomagnetic

storm with $Trillion consequences• FEMA addressing potential impacts related to space weather

events through simulated exercise

• Space Systems• World satellite industry revenues in 2008: >$144 billion • Space weather support is critical for manned space flight and

robotic missions

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Customer Growth SWPC Product Subscription Service

Customers Cycle 23

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Service begins

SES Satellite Inmarsat Federal Emergency Management Admin.

Schlumberger Drilling

US Federal Aviation Administration

North America Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC)

L-3 Communications

Florida Division of Emergency Mgnt.

British Petroleum America

Bonneville Power Administration

Washington St. Dept of Transportation

Caterpillar, Inc. Alaskan Airlines United Launch Alliance

Salem and Hope Creek Nuclear Stations

Example of Registrants in 2009

Aer Lingus Boeing / Flight Test Northwest AirlinesAFA British Airways Oslo Lufthavn ASAir Canada Bushmail PrivateSkyAir China Cathay Pacific Airway Qantas AirwaysAir Europa CBAir, LLC Ravenware AviationAir Line Crew Delta Colegio de Pilotos de Aviacion Raytheon Aircraft Co.Air Line Pilots Association Continental Airlines SCTAAir New Zealand Emirates SkyWest AirlinesAir Routing Intl FedEx Sun Country airlinesAirMed Inc. German ALPA Sundt air (Norway)Airservices Australia Icelandic ALPA Swales AerospaceAlaska airlines Irish Aviation Authority United AirlinesAllied Pilots Association Jet Aviation Business Jets APLA, ArgentinaALPA Japan korean air ARINCAmerican Airlines Lufthansa ATA AirlinesAmerican Eagle airlines Lufthansa / German ALPA NetJetsAmerican Trans Air Lufthansa Cargo North American Airlines

SWPC Customers - Aviation Groups

Three Primary Types of Space Weather Storms

1. S o la r F la re

– S o la r F la re s s e n d o u t x -

r a y s

–A rr iv e a t E a r t h in 8

m in u t e s

–M o d ify t h e io n o s p h e re

–D is r u p t H F r a d io

c o m m u n ic a t io n

– Im p a c t s :

• A ir l in e c o m m u n ic a t io n

• H F r a d io o p e r a t o r s

• D o D C o m m u n ic a t io n s

• S a t e l l i t e

C o m m u n ic a t io n s

1. Solar Flare – Solar Flares send out x-

rays– Arrive at Earth in 8

minutes– Modify the ionosphere– Disrupt HF radio

communication– Impacts:

• Airline communication• HF radio operators• DoD Communications• Satellite

Communications

2.Radiation Storms–Solar Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) send out Energetic Particles

–Arrive at Earth in 15 minutes to 24 hours

–Modify the high latitude ionosphere

–Disrupt HF radio communication

–Impacts:• Airline communication• HF radio operators• DoD Communications

–Ionizing radiation penetrates into the atmosphere

–Impacts:• Astronauts (radiation)• Satellite failures

3.Geomagnetic Storms–Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) send out Magnetic Clouds

–Arrive at Earth in 1-4 days–Accelerate particles within the magnetosphere and into the ionosphere

–Impacts:• HF radio communication• Radio Navigation (GPS)• Electric Power Grids• Increased Satellite Drag• Aurora

Solar X-Rays and Protons

• Large space weather storms start with an x-ray flare– X - r a y s p h o to n s t r a v e l a t th e s p e e d o f l ig h t a n d a r r iv e in 8 m in u te s

• Followed by energetic protons– G u id e d b y th e s o la r a n d te r r e s t r ia l m a g n e t ic f ie ld s a n d t r a v e l in g s lo w e r th a n th e

s p e e d o f l ig h t , th e y a r r iv e in 3 0 m in u te s to 2 4 h o u r s

• Both x-rays and protons penetrate to about 100 km altitude and ionize the atoms and molecules of the upper atmosphere

• Large space weather storms start with an x-ray flare– X-rays photons travel at the speed of light and arrive in 8 minutes

• Followed by energetic protons– Guided by the solar and terrestrial magnetic fields and traveling slower than the

speed of light, they arrive in 30 minutes to 24 hours

• Both x-rays and protons penetrate to about 100 km altitude and ionize the atoms and molecules of the upper atmosphere

Solar Protons

Solar X-Rays Arrive in 8 min.

Solar Protons Arrive in 30 min to 24 hours

SolarFlare

Ionospheric Radio Properties

• Flare or proton enhanced ionospheric D-region absorbs HF radio waves– X-rays and protons penetrate to

about 100 km where they collide with neutral atoms and molecules and ionize them producing free electrons. These electrons produce an enhanced layer

• Normal Ionosphere reflects HF radio waves– Layers in the ionosphere reflect

and absorb radio waves depending on the frequency of the radio transmission and the density of the electrons

• Flare or proton enhanced ionospheric D-region absorbs HF radio waves– X-rays and protons penetrate to

about 100 km where they collide with neutral atoms and molecules and ionize them producing free electrons. These electrons produce an enhanced layer

• Normal Ionosphere reflects HF radio waves– Layers in the ionosphere reflect

and absorb radio waves depending on the frequency of the radio transmission and the density of the electrons

Low FrequencySignal is Absorbed

Medium FrequencySignal normally

reflected

High FrequencySignal is Transmitted

D-RAP (D-Region Absorption Product)

• Provides airlines and dispatchers with a map indicating where HF communication are compromised by space weather.– Real-time current conditions– Driven by GOES x-ray data and energetic particle data and ground

magnetometer data

• Provides airlines and dispatchers with a map indicating where HF communication are compromised by space weather.– Real-time current conditions

– Driven by GOES x-ray data and energetic particle data and ground magnetometer data

Cartesian Map of the World Polar Projection

Image from NASA SOHO Satellite

X-Ray Impacts on Communication

Loss of High Frequency (HF) communications during a solar flare, sunlit side of Earth only

GOES SXI

GOES XRS

San Francisco Air Traffic Communications Center

NOAA Radio Absorption Plot

Flare Product

Solar Flare Radio Blackoutswill impact lower latitudes but affects lessen towards higher latitudes. There can be many large flares lasting several hours over the course of many days

Solar flare events in progress

12 Days of solar flares

Proton Impacts

Proton event in progress with little solar flaring

Solar Proton Events (Radiation Storms) cause extended periods (hours to days) of HF comm blackouts at higher latitudes.

HF Communication only

Airlines and the Polar Routes

• Flights rely on HF (3 – 30 MHz) communication all the time but inside the 82 degree circle, there is no alternative.

• Federal Aviation Regulation Sec. 121.99 – aircraft must have two-way radio communication over the entire route with dispatch office and air traffic control.

• Airlines will re-route flights away from polar routes during radiation and geomagnetic storms at a cost that can exceed $100,000 per flight.

Solar Flare Radio Blackouts and Solar Proton Radiation Storms can occur at the same time and cause widespread disruptions to communications.

Protons and Flares Together

D-Rap Realtime Validation with Riometers

• Riometers– Passively record

background galactic

radio noise at 30M H z.

– Provide a m easure of

ionopsheric absorption

• Issues– M easurem ent at one

frequency

– Spatial coverage is

lim ited to land

• Riometers– Passively record

background galactic radio noise at 30MHz.

– Provide a measure of ionopsheric absorption

• Issues– Measurement at one

frequency– Spatial coverage is

limited to landExisting

Planned

D-RAP Pre Deployment Validation of Proton Event

Period 1 at Thule.

Period 2 at Thule.

Thule generally exhibits good performance but during some periods the model overestimates absorption substantially.

Courtesy of Rashid Akmaev, NOAA SWPC

D-RAP Pre Deployment Verification of Proton Event

Period 10 at Taloyoak.

Period 10 at Rovaniemi.

In the European sector absorption is often substantially underestimated by the model.

Courtesy of Rashid Akmaev, NOAA SWPC

Validation of D-RAPCooperation with Canada

• Canada’s Space Weather Forecast Centre is constructing a network of HF transmitters/receivers to mimic airline communication.

• They expect a real-time service, funded by the Canadian Space Agency.– Transmitter at Alert.– Receivers to be put in:

Leicester, Ottawa, Churchill, Iqaluit, Cambridge Ban, Resolute, Longyearbyen, Nurmijarvi.

• Canada’s Space Weather Forecast Centre is constructing a network of HF transmitters/receivers to mimic airline communication.

• They expect a real-time service, funded by the Canadian Space Agency.– Transmitter at Alert.

– Receivers to be put in: Leicester, Ottawa, Churchill, Iqaluit, Cambridge Ban, Resolute, Longyearbyen, Nurmijarvi.

Courtesy of David Botler, Canadian Space Weather Forecast Center

Validation of D-Rap

• Best validation would be pilot reports– Logging of radio frequency and contacts

– Logging of broken contacts

• Best validation would be pilot reports– Logging of radio frequency and contacts– Logging of broken contacts

Summary

• D-RAP product has been upgraded and improved by adding protons– Provides better support for h igh latitudes

– C ritical for polar flights

• Realtime Validation of D-RAP is still in planning phase– R equires dedicated real-tim e data sources

– R equires international negotiations

• Pilot communication verification would be the best.

• D-RAP product has been upgraded and improved by adding protons– Provides better support for high latitudes– Critical for polar flights

• Realtime Validation of D-RAP is still in planning phase– Requires dedicated real-time data sources– Requires international negotiations

• Pilot communication verification would be the best.

D-RAP Realtime Validation with Ionosondes

• Ionosonds:– Probe the ionosphere at

various frequencies

– Provide a profile of the low er

layers of the ionosphere

• Issues:– N ot a true m easure of

absorption

– D ifficult to analyze the data

– M ore d ifficu lt to autom ate a

validation process.

• Ionosonds:– Probe the ionosphere at

various frequencies– Provide a profile of the lower

layers of the ionosphere

• Issues:– Not a true measure of

absorption– Difficult to analyze the data– More difficult to automate a

validation process.

Global Network of Ionosondes