Anna: Custom Trade Area

Anna: Custom Trade Area

Single Family Household Formation Analysis

Prepared for: City of Anna

December 2020

16980 N Dallas Parkway, Suite 101 Dallas, Texas 75248 www.residentialstrategies.com

Single Family Household Growth Forecast To arrive at the estimates and projections provided, RSI has utilized the following methodology:

• RSI begins with household and population counts from the 2010 census. It is assumed that these 2010 counts were accurate. Because the 2010 census was completed in/around June 2010, RSI’s assessment of new household formation in DFW begins with 3Q10.

• RSI summarizes, by community, new home activity from 3Q10 to date. Information

analyzed includes housing starts (new slabs poured), new home closings (physically occupied homes), vacant lots, final platted lots (both under developed and vacant land) and preliminary platted lots.

• Based on the development stage of new lots and RSI’s knowledge from its builder and

developer clients, a forecast is made as to the delivery date of the new communities.

• Based on RSI’s knowledge of production builders (a majority of DFW activity is performed by RSI builder clients) and the capacity of new communities, RSI projects start activity for each community and by product type.

• Persons per household ratios are established from prior census information and imposed

on new household formation.

• RSI’s forecasts are extremely accurate as they are based on ‘real world’ occurrences. With the platted lot approach to determining demand and with RSI’s extensive database on new home activity, RSI can paint a very clear picture of household count for the next 24 months.

• The normal time required for new lot development ranges from 6-24 months. In many

cases, new projects that will materialize in 3-5 years have not yet been conceptualized.

• RSI’s forecasts tend to be conservative and anticipated household growth as summarized in this report is projected at slow to moderate growth rates, depending on the area and current market conditions.

Please note that RSI’s data spans from approximately 1998 to current. Any subdivision that was developed and completed prior to that timeframe would not be included in our mapped developments. In addition, RSI does not include housing activity occurring outside of subdivisions with 5+ lots, manufactured housing or multi-family developments.

Anna Custom Trade AreaPopulation and Household Growth

Current Quarter Estimates, Future Projections

Custom Trade Area

3Q25 Projection* 78,4203Q23 Projection* 69,9683Q21 Projection* 60,8083Q20 Estimate* 54,1122010 Census 27,906Growth 2010 - 3Q20 93.91%

3Q25 Projection* 26,5833Q23 Projection* 23,7183Q21 Projection* 20,6133Q20 Estimate* 18,3432010 Census 9,580Growth 2010 - 3Q20 91.47%

SF Household Growth Projection (1-Year) 2,270SF Household Growth Projection (3-Year) 5,375SF Household Growth Projection (5-Year) 8,240Annual New Home Starts 1,934Annual New Home Closings 1,748Median New Home Price $313,876Vacant Lots 2,507Future & Preliminary Lots 21,407Total Potential Future Homesites 23,914Total Single Family Lots 36,362

Custom Trade Area

Population

Households

New Home Activity

Residential Strategies, Inc. conducts a quarterly census of new home activity throughout the DFW metroplex and provides

household estimates and projections based on this quarterly review of activity.* All estimates and future projections are for single-

family development and households only. Multi-family growth has not been included.

DisclaimerAlthough Residential Strategies, Inc. (RSI) has used commercially reasonable efforts to obtain information from sources in a manner that RSI believes to be

reliable, we do not guarantee it’s accuracy and such information may be incomplete, condensed or interpolated. Information presented in this report represents our estimates as of the date of the publication and is subject to change without notice. This report is not intended as a recommendation or

endorsement for any action taken by others. In no event will Residential Strategies, Inc. be liable for direct, indirect, incidental or consequential lost profits, lost savings, damages or other liabilities resulting from any information provided herein.

Residential Strategies, Inc. |16980 Dallas Parkway, Suite 101 | Dallas, Texas 75248 residentialstrategies.com | 972.381.1400 office

Anna: Custom Trade AreaSubdivision Detail

3Q20

Subdivision Submarket Annual Starts Annual Closings Vacant Lots Future Lots Preliminary Lots Total Potential Lots Remaining Total Lots Estimated at Build OutAnacapri Anna 0 0 0 0 1,239 1,239 1,239Anna Ranch Anna 0 0 0 257 550 807 807Anna Town Square Anna 201 182 163 1,072 20 1,255 1,893Avery Pointe Anna 156 138 153 56 0 209 568Camden Parc In Anna Anna 5 45 0 239 0 239 409Creekside Anna 0 0 0 0 0 0 230Falls, The Anna 0 0 0 0 0 0 316Green Meadows Anna 0 0 120 0 0 120 120Lakeview Estates Anna 40 41 4 57 0 61 225Meadow Ridge Estates Anna 0 0 0 0 0 0 151Meadow Vista Anna 0 0 0 132 618 750 750Northpointe Crossing Anna 83 85 90 0 0 90 735Oak Hollow Estates Anna 0 0 0 0 0 0 967Oak Ridge Anna 0 0 0 0 1,979 1,979 1,979Park Place at Anna Anna 0 14 58 77 0 135 150Pecan Grove Anna 158 39 317 0 0 317 648Primrose Estates Anna 0 0 0 0 403 403 403Quail Creek Run Place Anna 0 0 2 0 0 2 2Shadowbend Anna 0 0 0 220 247 467 467Sheffield Farms Anna 0 0 0 0 0 0 62Sherley Tract (Hurricane Creek North) Anna 0 0 0 0 829 829 829Stetson Ranch Anna 0 0 0 0 0 0 104Sweetwater Crossing Anna 32 8 57 0 0 57 197Tara Farms Anna 0 0 0 0 0 0 363Urban Crossing Anna 0 2 9 0 0 9 31Villages at Water Creek Anna 0 0 0 0 90 90 90Villages of Hurricane Creek Anna 0 0 0 294 586 880 880West Crossing Anna 87 70 188 222 0 410 1,115Westfield Addition Anna 0 0 0 0 0 0 140Willow Creek Anna 0 0 0 0 0 0 243Woods at Lindsey Place Anna 0 0 0 0 942 942 942Cambridge Estates Collin County NW 0 0 0 24 0 24 24Country Roads Celina Collin County NW 0 0 5 0 0 5 5Hills of Lone Star Collin County NW 15 12 38 0 0 38 106Honey Creek Farms Collin County NW 1 0 2 0 0 2 7Lone Star Ranch Collin County NW 2 1 3 0 0 3 15Hilltop Ranch Howe 0 0 0 0 1,371 1,371 1,371Katy Meadows Howe 0 0 0 0 15 15 15Prairie Crossing Estates Howe 0 0 0 0 0 0 17Trinity Falls McKinney-North 350 342 610 728 1,237 2,575 4,115Brookside Melissa 73 49 50 8 0 58 188Country Ridge Melissa 0 0 16 0 0 16 208Creek Crossing Melissa 66 52 13 147 0 160 309Hunters Creek Melissa 0 0 0 0 0 0 185Hunters Ridge Melissa 0 0 0 0 0 0 382Legacy Ranch Melissa 0 0 0 138 192 330 330Liberty Melissa 180 188 33 482 150 665 1,786Liberty Square Melissa 2 0 0 0 0 0 79Magnolia Ridge Melissa 24 17 74 0 0 74 174North Creek Melissa 0 0 4 0 0 4 409North Creek Estates Melissa 222 200 53 0 0 53 645North Creek Meadows Melissa 0 0 0 0 0 0 42Sky Ridge Melissa 0 0 0 0 27 27 27Stoneridge Melissa 0 0 0 0 374 374 374Villages of Melissa Melissa 30 100 0 0 695 695 1,461Wolf Creek Farms Melissa 0 0 0 159 213 372 372Woods of Country Ridge Melissa 0 0 0 0 0 0 27121 Farmington Van Alstyne 0 0 0 0 0 0 7121 Majors Van Alstyne 8 4 32 0 0 32 45Benton Estates Van Alstyne 0 0 0 153 0 153 153

©Residential Strategies, Inc. 2020: This summary may not be reproduced, adjusted or repackaged without prior consent from Residential Strategies, Inc.

Anna: Custom Trade AreaSubdivision Detail

3Q20

Subdivision Submarket Annual Starts Annual Closings Vacant Lots Future Lots Preliminary Lots Total Potential Lots Remaining Total Lots Estimated at Build OutBlackthorn Meadow Van Alstyne 4 5 13 0 0 13 26Cedar Place Van Alstyne 0 0 0 9 0 9 9Chapel Creek Farms at Van Alstyne Van Alstyne 18 16 32 0 0 32 59Driscoll Hill Van Alstyne 0 0 0 0 142 142 142Enclave at Chapel Creek Farms Van Alstyne 0 0 20 0 0 20 20Georgetown Heights Van Alstyne 0 0 0 0 0 0 293Georgetown Village Van Alstyne 46 35 8 0 0 8 293Greywood Heights Van Alstyne 58 48 31 108 0 139 224Harvest Meadows Van Alstyne 24 0 4 0 0 4 28Hudson Estates Van Alstyne 0 0 9 0 0 9 9Hunters Crossing Van Alstyne 1 11 0 0 0 0 30Mantua Van Alstyne 0 0 0 0 2,435 2,435 2,435Mantua Point Van Alstyne 0 0 246 144 180 570 570Remington Ridge Van Alstyne 0 0 0 0 411 411 411Rolling Ridge Van Alstyne 0 0 0 0 309 309 309Saddlewood Estates Van Alstyne 5 3 2 23 0 25 30Sanford Park Van Alstyne 42 39 37 0 0 37 111Summer Lake Country Estates Van Alstyne 0 2 1 0 0 1 11Sweet Water Creek Van Alstyne 0 0 0 0 851 851 851Thompson Farms Van Alstyne 0 0 0 160 255 415 415Washington Estates Van Alstyne 1 0 10 0 0 10 15Honey Creek Weston 0 0 0 0 138 138 138Total 1,934 1,748 2,507 4,909 16,498 23,914 36,362

©Residential Strategies, Inc. 2020: This summary may not be reproduced, adjusted or repackaged without prior consent from Residential Strategies, Inc.

Demographic and Income Profile480850301001 Prepared by EsriArea: 223.77 square miles Latitude: 434.1040

Summary Census 2010 2018 2023Population 27,906 40,602 50,325Households 9,580 13,740 16,905Families 7,657 10,957 13,463Average Household Size 2.91 2.95 2.97Owner Occupied Housing Units 7,800 11,576 14,672Renter Occupied Housing Units 1,780 2,164 2,233Median Age 34.9 35.8 34.5

Trends: 2018 - 2023 Annual Rate Area State NationalPopulation 4.39% 1.65% 0.83%Households 4.23% 1.62% 0.79%Families 4.21% 1.58% 0.71%Owner HHs 4.85% 2.09% 1.16%Median Household Income 2.19% 2.23% 2.50%

2018 2023 Households by Income Number Percent Number Percent

<$15,000 805 5.9% 797 4.7%$15,000 - $24,999 818 6.0% 802 4.7%$25,000 - $34,999 1,000 7.3% 1,057 6.3%$35,000 - $49,999 1,522 11.1% 1,660 9.8%$50,000 - $74,999 2,980 21.7% 3,425 20.3%$75,000 - $99,999 2,041 14.9% 2,689 15.9%$100,000 - $149,999 2,817 20.5% 3,857 22.8%$150,000 - $199,999 856 6.2% 1,153 6.8%$200,000+ 901 6.6% 1,465 8.7%

Median Household Income $71,970 $80,192Average Household Income $91,721 $104,993Per Capita Income $31,101 $35,319

Census 2010 2018 2023 Population by Age Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

0 - 4 2,239 8.0% 3,105 7.6% 4,029 8.0%5 - 9 2,418 8.7% 3,277 8.1% 4,159 8.3%10 - 14 2,344 8.4% 3,374 8.3% 4,236 8.4%15 - 19 1,954 7.0% 2,742 6.8% 3,553 7.1%20 - 24 1,274 4.6% 2,087 5.1% 2,444 4.9%25 - 34 3,761 13.5% 5,212 12.8% 7,109 14.1%35 - 44 4,296 15.4% 6,058 14.9% 7,551 15.0%45 - 54 3,939 14.1% 5,396 13.3% 6,100 12.1%55 - 64 2,922 10.5% 4,495 11.1% 5,019 10.0%65 - 74 1,784 6.4% 3,164 7.8% 3,827 7.6%75 - 84 728 2.6% 1,297 3.2% 1,811 3.6%

85+ 247 0.9% 395 1.0% 487 1.0%Census 2010 2018 2023

Race and Ethnicity Number Percent Number Percent Number PercentWhite Alone 24,147 86.5% 33,778 83.2% 40,453 80.4%Black Alone 1,139 4.1% 2,153 5.3% 3,227 6.4%American Indian Alone 270 1.0% 397 1.0% 503 1.0%Asian Alone 151 0.5% 377 0.9% 663 1.3%Pacific Islander Alone 12 0.0% 25 0.1% 35 0.1%Some Other Race Alone 1,483 5.3% 2,580 6.4% 3,654 7.3%Two or More Races 704 2.5% 1,292 3.2% 1,790 3.6%

Hispanic Origin (Any Race) 3,719 13.3% 6,380 15.7% 9,128 18.1%Data Note: Income is expressed in current dollars.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2010 Summary File 1. Esri forecasts for 2018 and 2023.

May 02, 2019

©2019 Esri Page 1 of 2

16980 N Dallas Parkway, Suite 101 Dallas, Texas 75248 www.residentialstrategies.com

Assumptions, Limiting Conditions and Copyright

Although Residential Strategies, Inc. (RSI) has used commercially reasonable efforts to obtain information from sources it believes to be reliable and accurate, RSI does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information. Information presented in this report represents RSI’s estimates as of the date of the report and is subject to change without notice. This report is not intended as a recommendation or endorsement of any action taken by you or any third party in regard to the subject matter of this report or any other real estate activity. RSI WILL HAVE NO LIABILITY FOR INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, CONSEQUENTIAL, OR SPECIAL DAMAGES, INCLUDING (BUT NOT LIMITED TO) LOST PROFITS, OR DIMINUTION IN VALUE OF YOUR BUSINESS OR PROPERTY, ARISING FROM OR RELATING TO RSI’S SERVICES HEREUNDER, REGARDLESS OF ANY NOTICE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES AND WHETHER OR NOT SUCH DAMAGES ARE REASONABLE OR FORESEEABLE UNDER THE APPLICABLE CIRCUMSTANCES. RSI’S LIABILITY ON ANY CLAIM OF ANY KIND, INCLUDING NEGLIGENCE, FOR ANY LOSS OR DAMAGE ARISING OUT OF, CONNECTED WITH, OR RESULTING FROM THIS REPORT OR THE SERVICES PROVIDED BY RSI SHALL IN NO SINGLE CASE, OR IN THE AGGREGATE, EXCEED THE AMOUNTS ACTUALLY PAID TO RSI IN CONNECTION WITH THE REPORT.

The following contingencies and limiting conditions are noted as fundamental assumptions that may affect the accuracy or validity of the analysis and conclusions set forth in this report. Specifically, the parties assume:

• that the DFW metropolitan area, the State of Texas, and the nation as a whole will not suffer any major economic shock during the time period of the forecast contained in this report;

• that general population levels will continue to increase at or above the rate forecast; • that the public and third party sources of statistical data and estimates used in this analysis are

accurate and complete in all material respects, and that such information is a reasonable resource for project planning purposes;

Any change in facts affecting the proposed project or any of the assumptions noted above or in the attached report could materially affect the conclusions set forth in this report or necessitate the re-evaluation of all or any portion of this report.

Anna: Custom Trade Area

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