ANIMA MASTER 031414 - Borsa Italiana · Anima is the largest independent asset manager in Italy,...

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Anima Holding Animating Italy’s Savings

Anima Holding - Key data EUR M 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016ENet management fees 125.0 148.0 159.4 173.2 179.1Total net revenues 165.1 220.2 207.6 224.0 232.0EBITDA 105.8 158.8 147.7 163.5 170.0EBIT 85.4 187.3 124.1 145.1 153.5Pre-tax profit 61.7 165.0 108.9 138.2 147.6Adj. net profit 56.9 94.4 91.8 107.9 112.7Net debt /-net cash 219.7 44.3 -9.4 -92.6 -174.5

A: actual; E: estimates; Source: Company data and Intesa Sanpaolo Research

An independent asset manager leveraging on banking distribution. Anima is the largest independent asset manager in Italy, with EUR 46.6Bn assets under management (AuM) at end-2013 and approx. 1M customers. Anima is a pure asset manager, not vertically integrated with distribution, and has agreements with strategic partners and shareholders (Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Banca Popolare di Milano and Credito Valtellinese), expiring between 2027 and 2030, integrated by more than 130 agreements with other banks and financial advisors networks.

Positives. Anima has a well-recognised brand and can count on a long-standing and experienced management team. We believe the group could benefit from the favourable growth prospects of the Italian asset management industry, mainly related to: (i) high Italian household wealth; (ii) under penetration of financial assets (only 42% of total) and of AuM on household financial assets (only 26% vs. >40% for France, Germany and the UK); and (iii) low weighting of pension funds and life products (only 18% of total Italian household financial assets vs. a median of 35% for other European countries), which could support growth in the institutional segment. In our opinion, Anima is in a good position to exploit these significant growth prospects, leveraging on commercial efforts by banks to push commission-driven margins and on its manufacturing capabilities for institutional clients. In our opinion, the group, whose current structure is the result of a successful M&A story, could also benefit from potential external growth opportunities in a sector consolidation scenario.

Valuation. We used an FCFE model to value Anima and ran a peers’ comparison as a cross check. With a cost of equity range of 8.75-10.25% and a perpetual growth rate of 0.75-1.25%, our model suggests an equity value range of EUR 1,057-1,306M. As for the multiples analysis, we believe that a valuation based on selected European peers’ P/AuM (product factories, like Anima, with similar profitability on AuM) could also be an appropriate methodology: an average 2014 P/AuM would lead to an implied value of EUR 1,219M, which falls within our FCFE valuation range. The average of a 2014 P/E valuation (based on selected Italian and European peers) and the abovementioned 2014 P/AuM would indicate an implied valuation of EUR 1,306M, in line with the top of our FCFE valuation range.

Risks. The main risks to Anima’s equity story and our earnings model, in our view, are represented by: 1) a slower than expected Italian economic recovery, which could negatively impact the household savings rate and mutual fund investments’ attractiveness for customers; 2) a potentially negative financial market performance weighing on the group's AuM; 3) a potential downsizing of strategic partners' banking networks, which could negatively impact the distribution of Anima's products. However, we believe that the group could offset it through a potential increased penetration of the strategic partners’ client base; 4) financial advisors' networks potentially gaining market share in AuM distribution vs. banking channels; and 5) a potential increased level of competition in the asset management business.

14 March 2014

IPO Report

Asset Gatherers

Intesa SanpaoloResearch Department

Elena Perini, CFA Research Analyst +39 02 8794 9814

Equity Company Note

Financial Team Manuela Meroni Elena Perini, CFA

Anima Holding 14 March 2014

2 Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department

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Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department 3


Contents

Investment Summary 4

Key risks 5

Valuation 6

FCFE model 6

Peers comparison 6

SWOT Analysis 8

Group Profile 9

History 9

Shareholder structure 9

Organisational structure 10

Management 11

Business Model and Commercial Performance 12

Mutual Funds: Product offer 12

Distribution channels 14

Market Analysis 19

Competitive positioning 19

Italian Asset Management Industry back to growth 19

Strategy 24

Recent Financial Results 26

Profitability margins 26

Fee structure 27

Earnings Outlook 30

AuM 30

P&L estimates 31

Balance sheet 34

Financials 35




Investment Summary

Anima is the largest independent asset manager in Italy, with EUR 46.6Bn assets under management (AuM) at end-2013 (from EUR 40.7Bn at December 2012), up to EUR 47.34Bn at end-January 2014 (source: Assogestioni monthly report) and approx. 1M customers. Anima is a pure asset manager, not vertically integrated with distribution, with a business model based on long-lasting agreements with strategic banking partners and shareholders (BMPS, BPM and CreVal).

According to Prometeia projections, the Italian retail AuM should grow at a 2013-16 CAGR of +7.5%. We believe that the main growth drivers for the asset management business in the Italian retail market can be summarised as follows:

High Italian household wealth;

High level of net wealth on disposable income, combined with a low level of private debt to disposable income;

High weighting of real estate wealth compared to financial assets, which only represent 42% of total household wealth;

Under penetration of AuM, which only weigh for 26% on total household financial assets vs. >40% for France, Germany and the UK, while 70% is represented by administered assets, liquidity and deposits (in our view, the current low-yield environment could favour a switch from government and banking bonds to asset management products).

We believe that Anima is in a good position to exploit the abovementioned growth potential as:

The company has a well-recognised brand in the Italian asset management industry;

Despite not having a proprietary distribution network, it can leverage on strong relationships and distribution agreements (termination dates between 2027 and 2030) with strategic banking partners (BMPS, BPM and CreVal), integrated by more than 130 agreements with other retail banks and financial advisors (FA) networks;

The banking channel, which represented more than 90% of Anima’s Retail AuM at end-2013, reported positive net inflows in mutual funds in 2013, after several years of outflows. We believe that this positive trend should continue as banking commercial policies, aimed at boosting commission-driven margins, currently favour the asset management business.

As regards the institutional segment, we believe that Anima could mainly leverage on the under penetration of pension funds and life products, only representing 18% of total Italian household financial assets. This level is definitely below that shown by other European countries and could significantly increase due to the “pension gap” for young people. According to Prometeia projections, the Italian institutional AuM should grow at a 2013-16 CAGR of +5.5%

In our opinion, the group, whose current structure is the result of a successful M&A story, could also benefit from potential external growth opportunities in a sector consolidation scenario. We highlight that the Italian asset management industry is still highly fragmented as, according to Assogestioni data, although the top 20 players account for more than 85% (with the first ten players managing approx. 75% of total industry AuM), 43 players have less than EUR 10Bn AuM each.

Our 2014E-16E AuM estimates factor in a 2013A-16E CAGR of +6.4%, mainly driven by net inflows, therefore continuing a trend already started in 2013. We estimate a significant growth for collective products’ contribution to total AuM (79% at end-2016E from 74% at end-2013A), while we do not expect a significant change in the retail and institutional weighting over the next three years (60/40% at end-2013A). Our 2014E-16E P&L estimates factor in a 6.5% 2013A-16E CAGR for net management fees, while, due to more cautious assumptions on performance fees and ancillary commissions, we point to a 2013A-16E CAGR of 1.7% for total

Largest independent asset manager in Italy

Key drivers: organic growth in…

Retail business

Institutional business

Potential M&A opportunities

Earnings outlook




net revenues. Thanks to expected good cost control, we forecast an EBITDA margin (calculated on gross revenues) up to 30.4% in 2016E from 28.5% in 2013A, and a 2013A-16E CAGR of 5.2% for adj. EBIT and 6.1% for adj. net profit. We estimate a dividend pay-out of 39.9% in 2014E, up to 44.8% in 2016E. According to our projections, Anima should be slightly cash-positive at end-2014E.

We used an FCFE model to value Anima and ran a peers’ comparison as a cross check. With a cost of equity range of 8.75-10.25% and a perpetual growth rate of 0.75-1.25%, our model suggests an equity value range of EUR 1,057-1,306M.

In our multiples analysis, we applied a valuation based on selected European peers’ P/AuM, which we consider to be an appropriate methodology, due to the similar business model (we selected product factories, close to that of Anima), with a similar profitability on AuM. An average 2014 P/AuM would lead to an implied value of EUR 1,219M, which falls within our FCFE valuation range. The average of a 2014 P/E valuation (based on selected Italian and European peers) and the abovementioned 2014 P/AuM would highlight an implied valuation of EUR 1,306M, in line with the high-end of our FCFE valuation range.

Key risks

We believe the main risks to Anima’s equity story and our earnings model are the following:

Top-down risks

Anima’s business and economic performance could be negatively impacted by: (i) a potentially slower than expected Italian economic recovery, which would affect the household savings trend and mutual fund investments’ attractiveness for customers; and (ii) a potentially negative financial market performance weighing on the group's AuM and also affecting mutual fund investments' attractiveness for the group’s final customers.

Sector risks

At a sector level, we see two risks: (i) financial advisors' networks potentially gaining market share in AuM distribution vs. banking channels, which are mainly used by Anima; and (ii) a potentially increased level of competition in the asset management business, negatively affecting margins, which we currently consider a minor risk.

Company-specific risk: High dependence on strategic banking partners

Anima’s distribution is highly dependent on strategic partners (BMPS, BPM and CreVal), which contributed 81% of total Retail AuM and 78% of total Retail net management fees in 2013. Anima’s business performance and profitability could be negatively affected by a potential downsizing of the strategic partners’ branch networks. However, an increased penetration of the strategic partners' client base would offset the potentially negative impact of a branch network downsizing. According to company indications, their customers have on average EUR 25k invested in Anima funds, which translates into a wide potential of penetration among the 7.9M customers of the three strategic partners and also with clients of other distributors. As regards the institutional segment, only two counterparties, AXA BMPS and Covea/Bipiemme Vita represented approx. 53% of institutional AuM at end-2013.

Valuation




Valuation

We believe that an FCFE model and a peer comparison are appropriate methods to value Anima Holding. We highlight that these two methods give an indication based on a long-term analysis and do not imply a near-term assessment of the likely performance of the shares.

On the basis of our FCFE valuation and with a multiples analysis as a cross-check, we obtain an overall valuation range of EUR 1,057-1,306M.

FCFE model

Our three-stage FCFE model factors in:

Our explicit estimates for the short-term period 2014E-16E (we calculated the annual net margin on average AuM as adj. net profit – gross of PPA amortisation – on average yearly AuM);

A seven-year transition period 2017E-23E with: (i) an average AuM yoy growth gradually converging from the average 8.1% in 2013E-16E (+5.6% in 2016E) to our long-term assumption range; (ii) an average FCFE net margin on AuM approximating to our assumed sustainable long-term margin of 0.15% (from an average 0.20% in 2014E-16E).

The main assumptions of our three-stage FCFE model are summarised in the following tables:

Anima Holding – Cost of equity calculation (base case, %) Anima Holding – Key assumptions (%) Risk-free rate 3.50Equity risk premium 5.50Beta (x)* 1.09Cost of equity 9.50

Average AuM 2013-16E CAGR 8.11Average annual 2014E-16E net margin on AuM 0.20Long-term average AuM growth 0.75-1.25Long-term net margin 0.15

Source: * Factset and Intesa Sanpaolo Research estimates Source: Intesa Sanpaolo Research estimates

Our beta calculation is based on the weighted average (related to market cap) 5-year adjusted beta of the selected peers (Azimut, Banca Generali and Mediolanum in Italy; Schroders, Aberdeen, Henderson and GAM Holding in Europe).

Assuming a cost of equity range of 8.75-10.25% and a long-term average AuM growth rate ranging from 0.75 to 1.25%, we obtain a valuation range of EUR 1,057-1,306M.

Anima Holding – FCFE model: sensitivity analysis EUR M Long-term growth (%) Cost of equity (%) 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.508.00 1,318.9 1,359.3 1,399.8 1,441.4 1,484.98.75 1,206.8 1,240.0 1,272.8 1,306.2 1,340.79.50 1,113.0 1,140.7 1,167.8 1,195.9 1,223.110.25 1,033.3 1,056.8 1,079.5 1,102.2 1,125.311.00 964.8 984.8 1,004.1 1,023.3 1,042.6

Source: Intesa Sanpaolo Research estimates

Peers comparison

As a cross-check to our FCFE model, we also used a multiples valuation.

We applied a valuation based on selected European peers’ P/AuM, which we consider an appropriate methodology as, although the asset management business is highly differentiated from country to country, the selected product factories (Schroders, Aberdeen, Henderson and GAM Holding), have a business model close to that of Anima with similar profitability on AuM. Should we apply the average 2014 P/AuM of the selected European peers, we would obtain an implied fair value of EUR 1,219M, which would fall within our FCFE valuation range.

Key assumptions

Peers selection and multiples valuation




We also considered a P/E valuation approach and extended our peers’ comparison to the Italian market, represented by the three listed asset gatherers (Azimut, Banca Generali and Mediolanum), which however have a different business model from Anima, as:

They have their own FA distribution networks;

They serve higher-end client segments (though taking into account that Mediolanum’s client base is closer to that of Anima);

Azimut mainly distributes in-house products, while both Banca Generali and Mediolanum adopt open-architecture approaches.

A P/E valuation approach based on selected Italian (Azimut, Banca Generali and Mediolanum) and European peers (Schroders, Aberdeen, Henderson and GAM Holding) would lead to an implied valuation of EUR 1,393M, above our FCFE valuation range, while the average implied valuation of our multiples-based valuation approaches (P/E and P/AuM) would be in line with the high-end of our FCFE valuation range.

Anima Holding – Valuation based on 2014 average multiples EUR M 2014E2014E adj. net profit 91.82014E AuM 50,287(A) Implied valuation on average 2014E P/E of Italian and European peers (15.2x) 1,392.7(B) Implied valuation on European average 2014E P/AuM (2.42%) 1,219.4Average of (A) and (B) 1,306.0

Notes: multiples priced on 10 March 2014; valuations based on weighted (on market cap) average 2014E P/E and 2014E P/AuM of selected peers; Source: Intesa Sanpaolo Research estimates and Factset

In the table below, we show the multiples and key financial indicators of Anima’s selected peers.

Selected data on peers Currency Mkt Cap (M) AuM (Bn) Adj. Net profit (M) Net margin (%) 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013Anima EUR 40.7 46.6 56.9 94.4 0.16 0.22Azimut EUR 3,584 19.6 24.0 160.6 155.8 0.89 0.72Banca Generali EUR 2,632 26.2 29.1 129.2 141.3 0.52 0.51Mediolanum* EUR 4,788 44.7 49.9 351.0 329.2 0.83 0.70Schroders GBP 7,486 212.0 262.9 283.0 371.0 0.13 0.16Aberdeen GBP 4,511 187.2 200.4 275.0 386.0 0.15 0.20Henderson GBP 2,815 65.7 74.5 126.8 125.1 0.19 0.18GAM Holding CHF 2,614 116.1 122.8 162.0 201.0 0.14 0.17

Notes: market cap updated as at 10 March 2014; Italians’ AuM including administered assets. Source: *Intesa Sanpaolo Research estimates on 2013 (AuM incl. administered assets), Thomson Reuters, Company data, Factset and Intesa Sanpaolo Research elaboration on Factset data

We attach below 2014 and 2015 multiples and net margins of selected Italian and European peers.

Peers comparison P/E (x) P/AuM (%) Net margin (%)

2014E 2015E 2014E 2015E 2014E 2015EAzimut* 19.8 17.1 12.77 11.58 0.72 0.73Banca Generali* 16.4 14.6 8.26 7.56 0.53 0.54Mediolanum* 13.3 12.8 9.13 8.64 0.70 0.69Italian average 16.2 14.6 10.10 9.34 0.65 0.66 Schroders 16.4 14.8 2.61 2.39 0.16 0.16Aberdeen 11.1 9.7 1.42 1.35 0.17 0.15Henderson 16.6 15.1 3.74 3.32 0.22 0.23GAM Holding 13.0 11.5 2.13 1.98 0.16 0.16European average 14.6 13.1 2.42 2.22 0.18 0.18Overall average 15.2 13.7 5.16 4.76 0.38 0.38

Notes: priced on 10 March 2014; Italian, European and overall average for P/E and P/AuM weighted for market caps; Italians’ AuM including administered assets. Source: *Intesa Sanpaolo Research, Factset and Intesa Sanpaolo Research elaboration on Factset data




SWOT Analysis Strengths Weakness

Largest independent player in the Italian asset management industry;

Anima is mostly active in Italy, which has a household wealth aligned with the richest European countries;

Long-lasting distribution agreements with strategic partners in the retail segment, integrated by more than 130 distribution agreements with retail banks and FA networks;

Well-recognised brand;

Strong manufacturing capabilities for the institutional segment;

Long-standing management team;

Successful M&A story.

Distribution not integrated with production (Anima does not have its own distribution network);

Anima’s retail client base is limited to Italy;

Distribution highly dependent on banking strategic partners;

Banking groups downsizing their branch networks.

Opportunities Threats

Room to grow for the Italian asset management industry, relying on high financial wealth of Italian households and under penetration of asset management products;

Italian banks’ commercial policies (aimed at boosting commission revenues) supportive for asset management;

Improving market share on higher-end client segments;

Potential M&A deals within likely sector consolidation.

Slower than expected Italian economic recovery;

Potentially negative financial market performance;

FA networks gaining market share on total AuM vs. banks;

Potential increase in competition.

Source: Intesa Sanpaolo Research elaboration

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ture

NOT BE DISTR

company on tthe IPO is ext

up and also p

with Anima Hool of:

in Luxembour

reland.

units), of the bourg.

eam can counand services, wustomers and d

regards the pated, with 10 and internatio 2 FTEs in cenced and 2 Mu

hile 8 people nvestment teang to both a

RIBUTED IN TH

the Borsa Italiatending the owproviding some

olding controlli

rg;

2013 FTE (21

t on 26 FTEs, while the salesdistributors (BMproduct offerinpeople based

onal players. Antral functionsultimanager, twork on Ret

am of 3 peopan Active and

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ana in a 100%wnership struce liquidity to t

ing 100% of A

8) was based

which grants team (25 FTE

MPS, BPM, Creng, in 2011 ain Milan and 3

As regards the ), of which 24he latter supptail mandates ple (excluding

Passive style,

tesa Sanpao

TES, CANADA

% secondary ture to the the current

Anima SGR

in Italy. 24

integration Es) provides eVal, banks, an in-house 3 in Dublin, investment

4 in mutual ported by a

and 4 on Structured with Low

A1

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A OR JAPAN.


Departmen

ng 14

nt




Management

The company can count on a long-standing management team, with a strong track record in terms of both organic growth and M&A.

Anima Holding – Management team Marco Carreri CEO Anima Holding and Anima

Mr Carreri joined in 2009. He was formerly UBI Pramerica’s CEO (1999-2008).

Alessandro Melzi d’Eril CFO

Mr Melzi d’Eril joined in 2011. He was formerly an investment director with Clessidra (2004-11).

Pierluigi Giverso Head of Business Development (Holding) and Marketing

Mr Giverso joined in 2009. He was formerly a manager with McKinsey (2003-09).

Claudio Tosato Head of products

Mr Tosato joined in 2001. He was formerly a risk manager with Deutsche Bank Asset Management SGR (1998-2001).

Armando Carcaterra Head of Investments

Mr Carcaterra joined in 1996. He was formerly a portfolio manager with Azimut (1990-96).

Emanuele Patti Head of Operations

Mr Patti joined in 2001. He was formerly a manager with Mediolanum (1990-2001).

Davide Sosio General Manager Ireland

Mr Sosio joined in 2003. He was formerly an auditor with PWC.

Davide Gatti Head of Sales

Mr Gatti joined in 2003. He was formerly head of the equity desk with Cofiri Sim (2001-03).

Source: Company data

1

B

Afu

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A

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Anima is active unds to individ

Anima had EUncluding an o

nvestment profmanages 163 fu

Anima Holding

otes: mutual funds eontribution (acquisitiutual funds and EUR

As regards indiv7.5% of total

Mutual Fund

Anima has a wdvisory and inn

he group has unds of hedge

Markets (tradend-2013;

Profiles (tradiend-2013;

Strategies (ab

Solutions (Tur2013.

trategies and Anima funds’ A

THIS DOC

Model a

in the asset mual mandates.

R 46.6Bn AuMopen-ended pfiles) now reprunds, of which

– AuM trend b

excluding pension fuion of Aperta SGR aR +2.2Bn in individu

vidual mandatindividual man

ds: Product o

wide offer of fnovation.

four mutual ffunds):

ditional market

tional balance

bsolute return f

rnkey solution

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nd Comm

management b

M at end-201pension fund resent 74% o

h 87 in Italy, 56

breakdown 201

unds; 2012 benefiteand Lussemburgo Geual mandates). Sourc

tes, at end-20ndates.

offer

funds in terms

fund families,

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funds), with 18

s target date f

ilies represent15% at end-20

NOT BE DISTR

mercial P

business, with

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11-13 (EUR Bn)

ed from CreVal estioni: EUR +600Mce: Company data

13 institutiona

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benchmark), w

benchmark), w

8 funds and EU

funds), with 6

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d 20 funds in L

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ial type, with

4 funds, and

with 61 funds a

with 12 funds

UR 4.3Bn AuM

63 funds and E

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ance

ffer ranging fr

end-2011. Muby Anima wit2% at end-20Luxembourg.

ma Holding – N

e: Company data

.3Bn mandate

a different w

9 other funds

and EUR 13.9

s and EUR 3.7

M at end-2013;

EUR 11.8Bn Au

ow weigh 46

tesa Sanpao

TES, CANADA

om mutual

utual funds h different

011. Anima

Net inflow by p

es, equal to

eighting of

s (including

Bn AuM at

Bn AuM at

uM at end-

% on total

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A OR JAPAN.

product (EUR Bn

Collective prtotal Anima A

Mutual Fundby commerci

Product inno


Departmen

n)

oducts: 74% oAuM

ds’ breakdownial type

ovation

ng 14

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n

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A

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A

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ntesa Sanpa

Anima Holding

ource: Company da

n 2013 Animadapt to new mroduct in 201arget date boorporate bondbsolute return ate” funds, w

AuM are autootential alternotential decline

According to cof performanceave 4 or 5 star

Anima Holding

ource: Company pre

aolo Researc

THIS DOCU

– Mutual Fund

ta

a launched 32market opportu12 and 2013 ond funds, wds) and “Tragu

component bhich were launmatically reinvative investmee in AuM).

ompany indicae and awards. rs (see chart be

- Awards

esentation

ch Departme

UMENT MAY N

ds: product offe

new mutual unities and trawas represen

with a diversifiuardo Alto Potased on flagshnched in 2012vested at maent in a corpo

ations, Anima p47% of AuM

elow).

ent NOT BE DISTRIB

ering

funds, confirmanslate them innted by “Traged basket of

tenziale” (targhip ANIMA Alto2 and 2013, thturity in anotrate bond or

products also of Anima rate

BUTED IN THE

Anim

Source

ming the grounto new produuardo” funds selected per

get date bond o Potenziale fuhey have a fivether Anima mgovernment (a

have a distincted funds (corre

UNITED STAT

ma Holding – M

e: Company data

up’s capabilityucts. The mosts, including “Tipheral governfunds, with a

unds). As regae-year maturit

mutual fund, and therefore

tive track recoesponding to

ES, CANADA O

Mutual funds by

to quickly t successful Traguardo” nment and “satellite” rds “Target y, but their avoiding a avoiding a

rd in terms EUR 8.7Bn)

A1

OR JAPAN.

by commercial t


1

type (%)

ng 14

13

1

InimC2ye

A

N

D

Aof

A

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4

n terms of assemportance in tAGR of -16%5%, with a 20ear CAGR.

Anima Holding

ote: 2012 data inclu

Distribution c

Anima serves bf total AuM, e

Anima Holding

ource: Company da

THIS DOC

et class, in thethe asset mix

%), while Flexib011-13 CAGR i

– Mutual fund

uding CreVal contrib

channels

oth retail and qual to EUR 27

– Net inflow b

ta

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e past two yea(from 10% t

ble funds signin assets: +79.

ds by asset clas

bution. Source: Com

institutional c7.7Bn AuM.

by channel

NOT BE DISTR

ars Money Mato 5% of totanificantly incre3%). Bond fun

s (%)

mpany data

lients. At end-

RIBUTED IN TH

arket funds pral mutual fundeased their connds’ assets also

-2013, Retail r

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rogressively redds, recording ntribution (froo recorded a 1

represented ap

tesa Sanpao

TES, CANADA

duced their a 2011-13 m 11% to 5.6% two-

pprox. 60%

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Mutual Fundasset class


Departmen

ds’ AuM by

ng 14

nt

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Aavba

A

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No

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A

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Thcucureclpo

ntesa Sanpa

etail

Anima has appverage assets oank distributio

Anima Holding Ag

FrMPS 20PM 20reVal 20ote: New agreement

he agreementreferential acce

Joint “distribu

Co-branding

Organisation

Ongoing tailo

Participation i

Anima Holding

ource: Company pre

he agreementustomers and ustomers updaegions of the cients in total. otentially nega

aolo Researc

THIS DOCU

prox. 1M clienof EUR 100/20

on, relying on t

– Retail agreegreement rom Until 009 2030 011 2030 013 2027 ts with BMPS were

ts (which do ess to the thre

ution and mark

and co-market

of dedicated t

ored sales and

in partner ban

– Strategic pa

esentation

ts with the stmore than 3

ated at YE12), country (as shoA theoretical

ative impact co

ch Departme

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nts, mainly rep00k. In order tothree long-term

ments with baP

MutMutual FundMutual Fund

signed in 2010. Sou

not entail aee banking gro

keting steering

ting initiatives;

training for par

marketing sup

k asset manag

rtners: exampl

trategic partne3,600 branchewith a significown in the fowider access

oming from a b

ent NOT BE DISTRIB

presented by o serve the retam strategic dist

nking strategicProducts

tual Funds s & retail mandas & retail manda

urce: Company data

ny “change-ooup networks a

g committees”

;

rtner banks’ em

pport;

gement events.

e of initiatives

ers could theoes (as of Septcant coverage llowing chart).to the strateg

branch networ

BUTED IN THE

family and afail segment, Atribution partn

c partners 2013 A(EUR

10.ates 8.7ates 2.9a

of-control” claand foresee:

;

mployees;

.

s

oretically givetember 2013, of the wealthi. At the momegic partners’ crks’ downsizing

UNITED STAT

ffluent clients,Anima predomi

erships.

AuM on ABn) retail 9

7 9

ause) grant an

Anima acceswith BPM’s

iest Northern aent, Anima ha

client base coug put in place

ES, CANADA O

with total nantly uses

Anima's AuM (%) 39 31 11

n exclusive

ss to 7.9M number of and Central as 1M retail uld offset a by banks.

A1

OR JAPAN.

Strategic par


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rtners

ng 14

15

1

A

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Inm

A

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InagA2

Ac

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6

Anima Holding

ource: Company pre

n 2013 Anima’management fe

Anima Holding

ource: Company da

n addition to thgreements wit

AuM at end-20.3Bn AuM at e

Anima Holding channel (EUR B

ource: Company da

THIS DOC

– Strategic pa

esentation

’s strategic paees.

– Retail AuM b

ta

he strategic bath retail banks013) and finanend-2013).

– Retail net inn)

ta

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rtners: distribu

rtners contribu

by channel (20

anking partners (approx. 2/3 ncial advisors’

flow trend by

NOT BE DISTR

ution networks

uted 81% of t

13, %)

r agreements, of the 50 largnetworks (9

distribution

RIBUTED IN TH

s

total Retail Au

Anim

Source

Anima has mogest Italian banamong the la

Anim(EUR

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uM and 78% o

ma Holding - Re

e: Company data

ore than 130 nking groups, argest FA netw

ma Holding – SR Bn)

e: Company data

tesa Sanpao

TES, CANADA

of total net

etail net manage

distribution EUR 2.8Bn

works, EUR

trategic Partne

A1

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A OR JAPAN.

ement fees by c

ers: 2013 net in

Other retail bnetworks


Departmen

channel (2013, %

nflow by produ

banks and FA

ng 14

nt

%)

uct

In

A

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In

A18gwinpan

A

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Thaglin20To20

ntesa Sanpa

Anima Holding

ource: Company da

nstitutional

At end-2013, t8.8Bn, up fromroup provides

was up to 54nstitutional clieroducts and End generates E

Anima Holding

ource: Company da

he key countgreement withnked – target 020 on EUR 3.otal assets for011 and EUR 8

aolo Researc

THIS DOCU

– Retail distrib

ta

he institutionam EUR 12Bn aa diversified i

% at end-20ents. Other inUR 1.5Bn PropEUR 10.5M net

– Institutional

ta

terparties for h BMPS until 2date 2018-20 .8Bn mandatesr insurance-rela8.1Bn in 2012.

ch Departme

UMENT MAY N

bution: other n

al segment rept end-2011), winstitutional of

013 from 43%nstitutional clprietary Financt revenues per

AuM by type

insurance re2018 and mut- and other p

s on reserves aated products .

ent NOT BE DISTRIB

etworks

presented appwith assets heffering for insu% at end-201ients includedce mandate fo

year.

of solutions (%

lated producttual funds wra

products) and Cand mutual fun

were EUR 10

BUTED IN THE

prox. 40% of ld in mutual fuurance compa11), pension fd EUR 3Bn wor BMPS, which

%)

ts are AXA Mapped into “VCovea/BPM (agnds wrapped i

0.1Bn at end-2

UNITED STAT

Anima’s total unds of EUR 1

anies (whose cfunds, banks

wrapping in Ah will expire in

MPS (EUR 0.Value Performagreement withnto unit linked

2013, from EU

ES, CANADA O

AuM (EUR 0.6Bn. The ontribution and other

Anima own n mid-2016

9Bn under ance” unit-h BPM until d products). UR 5.2Bn in

A1

OR JAPAN.

Significant ininsurance we

Insurance-redriven by BM


1

ncrease in eighting

lated productsMPS and BPM

ng 14

17

s

1

A

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In20be

A

So

Invs

A

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8

Anima Holding

ource: Company da

n 2012 and 20013 other melonging to Ba

Anima Holding

ource: Company da

n 2013, insuras. a 54% weig

Anima Holding –

ource: Company da

THIS DOC

– Institutional

ta

013 AXA MPSandates suffe

anca Etruria gro

– Institutional

ta

nce-related prht on total ins

– Institutional A

ta

CUMENT MAY

insurance pro

S and Covea/Bered from a oup.

net inflow tre

oducts generatitutional AuM

AuM by client an

NOT BE DISTR

ducts AuM by

BPM drove nebig outflow f

end by client an

ated 37% of toM.

nd product (201

RIBUTED IN TH

client (%)

et inflows for from a single

nd product (EU

otal institution

13, %) Animand

Source

Int

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institutional se institutional

R Bn)

nal net manag

ma Holding – Inproduct (2013

e: Company data

tesa Sanpao

TES, CANADA

egment. In customer,

ement fees

nstitutional net, %)

A1

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t management


Departmen

t fees by client

ng 14

nt

In

M

C

Aa dafrpea

Aa dM

A A

ABa

M

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It

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Market A

Competitive

Anima is the lea3.6% market

ata, up to 6.ragmented, aslayers managinach.

Anima’s businesproduct fact

istribution netMediolanum, w

Anima Holding Pr

nima In

zimut Manca Generali O

Mediolanum "ar

otes: HNWI High Ne

he main compmanagement co

talian Asset

According to Awhile at end-20nd of 2007. T

management inehman bankruurrently seems5.4% for total

talian Asset Ma

ource: Assogestioni

aolo Researc

THIS DOCU

Analysis

positioning

ading independshare on tota

3% in open-e, although theng approx. 75%

ss model is comtory only, whtworks. In term

which also targe

– Business moroducts

n-House

Mainly "In-HouseOpen-architecture

Best Brands" as rchitecture approet-Worth Individuals

petitors for Aniompanies belo

Manageme

Assogestioni’s 013 the total asThis was mainndustry was a

uptcy), and 201 to be back to AuM and mu

anagement Ind

ch Departme

UMENT MAY N

dent asset manal AuM at endend funds. The top 20 play% of total indu

mpletely differhile Azimut, Bms of clients ets traditional

odel vs. Italian l

e" e

alternative to opoach . Source: Companie

ma, which maonging to bank

nt Industry

quarterly datassets held in mnly due to twaffected by th11, with the ne significant grotual funds, res

dustry - AuM y

ent NOT BE DISTRIB

nager in Italy b-December 20he Italian asseyers account foustry AuM), 43

rent from listedBanca Generaserved, the clbanks’ custom

listed asset gatDistributNo propr(among wOwn FA Own FA

pen Own FA

s’ data and Intesa S

ainly operates tking groups.

back to gro

a, in 2007-13mutual funds w

o very difficulhe internationaegative impactowth, as showspectively, acco

early trend (EU

BUTED IN THE

by AuM (EUR 4013, accordinget managemenor more than 3 players have

d Italian asset ali and Mediolosest listed p

mers.

therers ion rietary network, which 3 strateginetwork network

network

Sanpaolo Research e

through the ba

owth

, total AuM rwere still belowlt years: 2008al financial crt of the sovere

wn by the 2011ording to Asso

UR Bn)

UNITED STAT

46.6Bn at end- to Assogestiont industry is 85% (with thless than EUR

gatherers as itolanum have eer could be

agreements witc partners)

elaboration

anking channe

recorded a 2.8w the level reco8, when the Itrisis (subprimeign debt crisis.-13 CAGR of gestioni data.

ES, CANADA O

-2013) with oni monthly

still highly he first ten 10Bn AuM

t represents their own considered

Ch banks M

MAsiM

el, are asset

8% CAGR, rded at the talian asset e crisis and The sector 19.2% and

A1

OR JAPAN.

Clients served Mainly family and

Mainly affluent aAffluent, upper aignificant portio

Mainly lower affl

Leading indemanager

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nd HNWI affluent, n of HNWI uent and affluen

ependent asse

manager with ndistribution

ng 14

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3Q

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20

n 2012, the reerformance (2ositive), while 013.

talian Asset Ma

ource: Assogestioni

Q12A represen

talian Asset Ma

ource: Assogestioni

According to PrAuM market shnstitutionals reche positive buactors.

THIS DOC

ecovery of asse2012 total Au

the recovery

anagement Ind

nted the turnin

anagement Ind

rometeia projehould record acording a com

usiness momen

CUMENT MAY

ets under manuM net inflow

of net inflow

dustry – Net inf

ng point for m

dustry – Net inf

ctions (“Osserva 2013-16 CAG

mpounded annntum for the

NOT BE DISTR

nagement wasw negative, wws was the ma

flows’ yearly tr

utual funds’ n

flows’ quarterl

vatorio sul rispGR of +6.5%,ual growth of sector to con

RIBUTED IN TH

s mainly drivewhile mutual fain driver of m

rend (EUR Bn)

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parmio delle fa, driven by Re+5.5% in the

ntinue, thanks

Int

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n by the positfunds were omutual funds’

Bn)

amiglie 2013”)tail (+7.5% C

e same period. s to a mix of

tesa Sanpao

TES, CANADA

tive market nly slightly growth in

, the Italian AGR), with We expect favourable

A1

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Net inflows: turning poin

Growth drive


Departmen

3Q12 the t

ers:

ng 14

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In

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It

NoBa

Inp

It

NoOE

ReofEufrfr

Torepe(mco

ntesa Sanpa

alian househol

talian househo

otes: Real Assets datanks, FEF, Assogestio

n addition, Italyrivate debt on

talian net wea

ote: UK data 2010; ECD data (2011)

eal estate inveffer room for urisko survey, rom 25% in Mrom 19%.

otal assets unepresent only 2enetration levemainly includinountries. The c

aolo Researc

THIS DOCU

ld wealth is ali

old wealth (EUR

ta updated at 2011;oni, Gfk Eurisko

y also has a higdisposable inc

lth on disposab

Source: Bank of Italy

estments remaa potential re

the preferenceMay 2012, whi

nder managem26% of Italian els for France,

ng governmentcurrent low-yie

ch Departme

UMENT MAY N

gned with the

R Tn)

; financial assets upd

gh level of netcome.

ble income (x)

y (Suppl. Bollettino

ain predominaebalancing in e for real estatle, in the sam

ment (mutual households’ t Germany and

t bonds) is moreld environmen

ent NOT BE DISTRIB

richest Europe

dated as of 1Q13. S

t wealth to dis

Statistico Dec. 2013

nt vs. financiathe coming ye or house inve period, finan

funds, insuratotal financial ad UK. In Italy, re than doublent could favour

BUTED IN THE

ean countries.

Source: OECD, Natio

posable incom

Italia

3) on Source

al products (58years, as, accovestment declinncial product

ance investmeassets, comparthe percentag

e that of the avr a switch tow

UNITED STAT

onal Statistics Institu

me and the low

an net debt on

e: Bank of Italy (Sup

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ents and pensred to significage of administverage of otheards AuM.

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west level of

n disposable inc

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This could Anima GfK

n May 2013 ew to 23%

sion funds) antly higher ered assets

er European

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come (x)

tico Dec. 2013) on O

(i) high Italiawealth

(ii) low penemanagemen


2

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an household

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22

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ource: OECD, Natio

According to Aalian AuM (al.6% at end-20o positive inflow

talian Asset Ma

ource: Prometeia we

rometeia highxpense of bank

talian banks – T

ource: Bank of Italy

THIS DOC

h breakdown (

nal Statistics Institut

Assoreti data Aso including l

004. In 2013 Itws in mutual f

anagement Ind

ebsite

lights a scenak branches, wh

Trend in total

(“Bollettino Statistic

CUMENT MAY

(%)

te, Central Banks, FE

At the end of 2ife products) talian bank brafunds (approx.

dustry – Yearly

rio of FA netwhose total num

number of bra

co”)

NOT BE DISTR

EF, Assogestioni, Gf

2012, financiawas 16.7% c

anches, after seEUR +25Bn, a

mutual funds’

works further mber is also suf

nches 2008-13

RIBUTED IN TH

fK Eurisko (updated

l advisors’ (FAcompared to 1everal years of

according to Pr

’ net inflows (B

gaining markffering from a

Italiachan

Source

Int

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as of 1Q13)

) networks sha14.6% at endf net outflows,rometeia).

Banks vs. FAs)

ket share on Ageneral down

an asset managnnel (%)

e: Prometeia

tesa Sanpao

TES, CANADA

are of total d-2007 and were back

AuM at the sizing.

gement indust

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try – AuM trend

(iii) recovery branches’ ne

Distribution important drAuM growth


Departmen

d in Italy by

in banking et inflows

Banking as anriver for Retailh

ng 14

nt

n l




However, we believe that there is still room for growth in the banking channel too. According to Prometeia projections, retail AuM distributed by banks should record a 2013-16 CAGR of +6.5%, with Italian banks remaining the dominant distribution channel in the retail segment. In addition, banks are also currently trying to push commission-based margins as their total revenue base is suffering from a decline in interest margin.

Italian banks – Main balance sheet indicators yoy % 2012 2013Assets & Liabilities Loans -1.2 1.3Deposits 3 2.4Profitability Revenues 3.3 -4.3of which interest margin -4.7 -1.9net commissions -1.3 7.3Costs -3.3 0.2

Source: Assogestioni on Bank of Italy (Results and forecasts for Italian listed banking groups)

2

S

Ao

Ind

W

Wagdethnan

In(scobethlede

It

N

24

Strategy

According to con the following

Consolidating

Further develo

Maintaining c

n addition to tisciplined appr

We would expe

A recovery inrecovery in th

The possibilitfinancial asset

The AuM welevels for othe

Banks, whichcommercial p

We consider Angreements witeveloping the he partnershipumber of premnd selected ma

n Italy, pensionsee source of ountries and coe an importanhe group has everage on thevelop new re

talian Asset Ma

ote: 1Q13 data; Sou

THIS DOC

ompany indicag three pillars:

g Anima’s role

oping institutio

cost efficiency.

the abovemenroach in active

ect the retail se

n the Italian ehe household s

ty that an incts, which now

eighting on toer main Europe

are the main policies, as they

nima to be in th strategic palternative ch

p with Russelmium partners)andates for pri

n funds and lifchart below). ould significan

nt growth drivematured a sige consolidatiolationships wit

anagement Ind

urce: Assogestioni,

CUMENT MAY

ations, the gro

in the retail se

onal clients’ ch

ntioned driversly pursuing M&

egment to grow

economy, boossavings rate;

reasing portio represent only

tal household ean countries;

distribution cy are implemen

a good positpartners (BMPShannels alreadyl Investments ), FAs and privivate clients).

fe products repThis level is d

ntly increase duer at a sector gnificant expeon of the relath other insura

dustry – Life an

Eurostat, OECD, BC

NOT BE DISTR

oup strategy fo

egment;

hannel with a s

s of organic g&A opportunit

w in the comin

sting growth

on of total hoy 42% of the t

financial asse

hannel for Annting strategies

ion to exploit S, BPM and Cy used, repres

on top-end ate banking (le

present only 1definitely belowue to the “penlevel, which, i

ertise in the inationship with nce groups.

nd pension fun

E, Deutsche Bundes

RIBUTED IN TH

or the next thr

strong focus o

rowth, the gries.

ng years, driven

in Italian hou

ousehold wealttotal;

ets is only 26%

nima, are curres aimed at inc

this potentialCreVal) and tented by otheclients and s

everaging on A

8% of total hw the ones sh

nsion gap” for in our opinionnstitutional seg AXA MPS a

ds on total fina

sbank

Int

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ree years is m

n insurance pla

roup will also

n by:

sehold wealth

th could be a

% vs. significa

ently adopting reasing comm

, thanks to itsthe possibility er retail banks selectively incrAnima’s brand

household finahown by otheyoung people

n, Anima couldgment. The gnd Covea/BPM

ancial assets (%

tesa Sanpao

TES, CANADA

ainly based

ayers;

maintain a

h, due to a

allocated to

ntly higher

favourable issions.

s long-term of further (exploiting

reasing the reputation

ncial assets r European . This could d exploit as roup could

M and also

%)

A1

olo Research

A OR JAPAN.

2014-16: focugrowth, withpotential M&opportunitie

Retail segmewith strategalso in altern

Institutional leveraging openetration and pension


Departmen

us on organic hout ruling ou&A es

ent: growth ic partners, bu

native channel

segment: n under of life productfunds

ng 14

nt

ut

ut ls

ts




We expect the Anima group to keep costs under control and cost/income (calculated as recurrent staff and other administrative costs on total net revenues) below 30% thanks to the business operating leverage (in 2011-13, the group total revenues recorded a CAGR of +23% with costs at the same time decreasing at a -4% CAGR).

As previously discussed, the group offers a successful M&A story, which led to significant efficiencies, expressed by a reduction of FTEs from 294.5 at end-2011 to 218 at end-2013, with, at the same time, an increase in AuM/FTE from EUR 119M to EUR 214M. The group’s management is willing to actively pursue potential further M&A opportunities maintaining a disciplined approach, as shown by the deal signed with CreVal: EUR 33M paid for EUR 2.8Bn AuM. The Italian asset management industry is highly fragmented with a very large number of “sub-scale” players (43 groups hold less than EUR 10Bn AuM each). We would expect Anima to focus on opportunities arising with the target of enhancing its distribution capabilities (e.g. captive players with access to regional banking distribution networks).

Cost control

Disciplined approach in M&A

2

R

P

Ainmpe

InEB+toanthanBw

A

Noot

Th(inof(sode

A

So

26

Recent Fi

rofitability m

According to Anflows, gathermutual funds. ension fund fo

n the past twBITDA recordi62.8%. In 201o a price adjusnd BPM in 201he agreementsn indemnity sPM and BMPS

was pre-paid in

Anima Holding

otes: EBITDA calculaher income & costs

he growth rencluding net mf +8.8%, andstaff costs andperating costs eclined from 4

Anima Holding

ource: Company da

THIS DOC

nancial R

margins

Assogestioni moing a total amAnima recent

or EUR 70-80M

wo years, Animng a 2011-113 EBIT and sttment (exclude14. The paymes concerning thhould the cum

S on Anima pro2012 to partia

– Profitability

ated as total net reveand D&A. Source: C

ecorded in prmanagement f performance

d other admin (excl. non-rec

45.3% in 2011

– Key revenue

ta

CUMENT MAY

Results

onthly data, Amount of EURtly won two

M already reflec

ma recorded a3 CAGR of +tated net profied from the caent had been he integration mulative commoducts fall beloally finance the

trend indicato

enues deducted stafCompany data

ofitability indiees and other fees, and by

istrative expencurring costs, o to 36% in 20

e and cost indic

NOT BE DISTR

Anima had a veR 799M in Janinstitutional mcted in January

a significant g+41.2%, EBIT t were boostealculation of adnegotiated betof Anima and

missions (excluow a pre-define CreVal deal.

ors (2011-13) (E

ff and other adminis

icators was dnet commissioa compounde

nses) of 3.7%other income/

012 and 27.9%

cators (2011-13

RIBUTED IN TH

ery good startnuary, of whimandates, of y net inflow da

growth in proT +116.3% aned by an amoudjusted net prtween the sha

d Prima: Animauding performned threshold.

UR M)

strative costs; EBIT a

driven by incrons), which reed annual dec. The cost inc

/costs and D&A% in 2013.

3) (EUR M)

Int

E UNITED STAT

t to 2014 in tech almost EUwhich one re

ata.

ofitability indicnd adjusted nunt of EUR 55.ofit), to be pa

areholders in 2a had the righance fees) geAn amount o

also includes non-rec

reasing net coecorded a 2011crease in opercome ratio, caA) on total ne

tesa Sanpao

TES, CANADA

erms of net R 732M in elated to a

ators, with net income 5M related id by BMPS 010 within t to receive nerated by

of EUR 17M

curring costs,

ommissions 1-13 CAGR rating costs alculated as t revenues,

A1

olo Research

A OR JAPAN.

Net inflows: to 2014

Strong growprofitability

Profitability increasing mperformancecontrol


Departmen

positive start

wth in margins

driven by management ane fees and cost

ng 14

nt

nd t

In

ThpoG(ean

A

So

A(

So

Fe

Th

Apshanp

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he growth in ositive market

Gestioni S.A. fespecially in mnd also helped

Anima Holding

ource: Company da

Anima Holding EUR Bn)

ource: Company da

ee structure

he Anima fee s

Entry fees (alm

Placement fedistributors);

Management

Performance

According to a lacement fee, hould be paid nd placement lacement fees

et commissiomanagement femanagement fe

aolo Researc

THIS DOCU

net fees was t performance from CreVal, utual funds an

d by a positive

– Total AuM (E

ta

– Growth driv

ta

e

structure inclu

most entirely re

ees (mainly r

t fees (rebated

fees (fully reta

new regulatiowhich replaceacross the life fees are recare deducted

ns are mostlyees net of reees and rebate

ch Departme

UMENT MAY N

driven by theeffect and frowhile in 2013nd institutionamarket perform

EUR Bn)

vers in Mutual F

des:

ebated to distr

regarding Tar

to distributors

ined by the as

on introduced es the subscripe of the produorded on topfrom managem

y representedbates (70% orates in 2013

ent NOT BE DISTRIB

e growth in Aom the acquis3 AuM growtl clients, whicmance.

Funds’ AuM

ributors);

get Date Fun

s according to

set manager).

by the Bank option fee and uct. From an ap of managemment fees acro

d by net manon average). Twas mainly re

BUTED IN THE

AuM, which insition of Apertth was mainlh recorded a

Anim

Source

Anim(EUR

Source

nds and alm

signed agreem

of Italy, a mutanticipates th

accounting stament fees whoss the lifetime

nagement feeThe significant

elated to placem

UNITED STAT

n 2012 benefitta SGR and Luy driven by nnet inflow of

ma Holding – G

e: Company data

ma Holding – GR Bn)

e: Company data

ost entirely r

ments);

tual fund coulhe managemeandpoint, bothen cashed in

e of the related

es, resulting ftly higher levement fees.

ES, CANADA O

ted from a ussemburgo net inflows EUR 2.5Bn)

Growth drivers

Growth drivers

rebated to

d charge a nt fee that

h entry fees . However,

d product.

from gross el of gross

A1

OR JAPAN.

of total AuM (

in Individual M

Growth in neby AuM grow

Analysis of nmanagemen


2

(EUR Bn)

Mandates’ AuM

et fees driven wth

net t fees

ng 14

27

M

2

A

So

ThD20m10seu

A

So

Inachbeanancupe

28

Anima Holding

ource: Company da

he retail segmespite contribu013. The instit

mid-2016. Shou0.5M total neegment wouldp to 34bps in 2

Anima Holding

ource: Company da

n 2013 performccording to thigh watermarkenchmark metn annual basis nd flexible funumulatively reerformance fee

THIS DOC

– Trend in gro

ta

ent is more pruting approx. tutional segmeuld we excludeet revenues pe be lower. The2013 (34.2bps

– Retail and in

ta

mance fees wehe high watermk), and on 23thodology (boo and beats the

nds, whose assepresented aroes are gained o

CUMENT MAY

oss and net man

rofitable than 60% of total ent includes the the contributer year), the ne total averages in 2012).

nst. net mgmt f

ere calculated mark (booked funds, for a oked once a ye benchmark). sets significantound 75% oon Italian fund

NOT BE DISTR

nagement fees

the institutionAuM, it gave he mandate otion from the anet managemee net managem

fees trend (EUR

on 31 funds, fon a monthlytotal amount

year in 4Q, if t49% of 2013

tly increased inf total 2013

ds and therefor

RIBUTED IN TH

s

nal in both abs68% of total

on MPS proprieabovementioneent fees on A

ment fee on Au

R M) Anim

Source

for a total amoy basis if AuMof EUR 6.4Bn

he fund has aperformance

n the past twoperformance

re subject to th

Int

E UNITED STAT

solute and relanet managemetary finance, ed mandate (aAuM for the iuM was 33.5b

ma Holding – R

e: Company data

ount of EUR 4M level is highen AuM, accord

positive perfofees came from

o years. The tofees. Approx

he Italian taxat

tesa Sanpao

TES, CANADA

ative terms. ment fees in

expiring in pprox. EUR nstitutional ps in 2011,

Retail and inst.

4.3Bn AuM, er than the ding to the ormance on m balanced p 10 funds x. 80% of tion.

A1

olo Research

A OR JAPAN.

net mgmt fees

Net managemchannel

Performance


Departmen

s trend (bps)

ment fees by

e fees

ng 14

nt

In

A

So A

So

Dfro(2

In-2nesh+en

AEUToCPePrTo

So

ThShad32

ntesa Sanpa

Anima Holding

ource: Company da

Anima Holding

ource: Company da

epreciation & rom 2011 andld acquisitions2010-11).

n 2013 the gro23.7M in 2012et debt signifhould take pla325bps and find-2013. Ther

Anima Holding UR M otal financial debash and securitieerformance fee rrice adjustment otal net financiaource: Company dat

he group’s taxhould both tdjustment of E2%.

aolo Researc

THIS DOCU

– Performance

ta

– High Waterm

ta

Amortisation (d 2012), are als (2006-07), C

oup recorded n2), mainly relatficantly down.ace in March 2ve-year matur

refore, net fina

– Net financia

bt and liabilities es receivables

l debt ta

x rate declinehe negative iEUR 55M (tax

ch Departme

UMENT MAY N

e fees by type (

mark by perfor

(D&A), equal tlmost entirely

CreVal deal (20

net financial exted to senior l. According to2014, for a serity) vs. an amoancial expenses

l debt trend

d to 27.5% iimpact from

x exempt) be e

ent NOT BE DISTRIB

(%)

rmance fees (%

to EUR 22.8M related to inta

012) and acqu

xpenses of EURloans. The stroo the companenior loan amoount of EUR 3s should signifi

2011A409.5

-140.7-0.9

-267.8

n 2013 from the 8.5% ad

excluded, the

BUTED IN THE

Anim

Source

%) Anim

Source

in 2013 (and angible assets uisitions of Prim

R 22.3M (EUR ong cash geneny presentatioount of EUR 1

345M of finanicantly reduce

20137

-13-2

21

51.9% in 20dditional IRES 2013 recurrin

UNITED STAT

ma Holding – P

e: Company data

ma Holding – B

e: Company data

not significantand PPA, resu

ma SGR and A

-22.6M in 201eration drove ton, a debt ren175M (six-moncial debt and in the future.

12A75.832.323.9

-9.7

11 and 30.9%taxation and

g tax rate wo

ES, CANADA O

Performance fee

Benchmark perf

tly different ulting from Anima SGR

11 and EUR the group’s negotiation nth Euribor liabilities at

2013A345.2

-209.2-36.2-55.544.3

% in 2012. the price

ould be 31-

A1

OR JAPAN.

es by asset clas

formance fees

Other P&L ite

Net financial

Tax rate


2

ss (%)

(%)

ems: D&A,

l items

ng 14

29

3

E

A

OinstWdo

A

A

WreinPrre

A

E

AmA20resh

30

Earnings

AuM

Our 2014E-16E nflows, therefotrong start to 2

We factor in asown to 1.5%

Anima Holding

A: actual; E: estimate

We expect net etail and institunstitutional segroprietary Finaevenues until 1

Anima Holding

: estimates; Source:

As a result, andmutual funds, AuM: we estim016E from 74etail and instithould represen

THIS DOC

Outlook

estimates on ore continuing 2014, gatherinsumptions of in 2016E.

– AuM trend 2

es; Source: Company

inflows to be utional clients gments should ance (one singH16).

– Estimates on

Intesa Sanpaolo Re

d also taking inwe estimate a

mate mutual fu% at end-201utional weight

nt almost 61%

CUMENT MAY

k

AuM factor ina trend alread

ng EUR 799M a positive mar

2013A-16E (EUR

y data and Intesa Sa

driven by mutin 2014E and be negativelygle mandate w

n net inflows b

search

nto account a pa significant gunds and pens3A. On the coting over the of total AuM

NOT BE DISTR

a 2013A-16Edy started in 20

in January, acrket performan

R Bn)

anpaolo Research

tual funds and2015E, while i affected by thwith EUR 1.5

by product (EUR

progressive cogrowth for colsion funds to ontrary, we donext three yeaat end-2016E

RIBUTED IN TH

E CAGR of +6.4013. We highliccording to Asnce around 2.5

Anim

E: esti

d to be substain 2016E bothhe terminationBn AuM and

R Bn) Anim

E: esti

nversion of Crllective producrepresent 79%

o not expect a ars: according vs. 60% at en

Int

E UNITED STAT

4%, mainly dright that the gssogestioni mo5% in 2014E a

ma Holding – T

mates; Source: Intes

ntially balance individual ma

n of the mandEUR 10.5M

ma Holding – E

mates; Source: Intes

reVal retail macts’ contributio% of total Ausignificant chato our projec

nd-2013A.

tesa Sanpao

TES, CANADA

riven by net roup had a

onthly data. and 2015E,

Total AuM grow

sa Sanpaolo Researc

ed between ndates and ate of MPS annual net

stimates on ne

sa Sanpaolo Researc

ndates into on to total uM at end-ange in the tions, retail

A1

olo Research

A OR JAPAN.

wth drivers (EU

ch

et inflows by ch

ch

AuM: assumpinflows and performance

Mutual Fundto 79% at en


Departmen

UR Bn)

hannel (EUR Bn

ptions on net market

e

ds’ weighting und-2016E

ng 14

nt

n)

up

In

A

A

Waneq

A

A

Are

P

O

To

ntesa Sanpa

Anima Holding

A: actual. Source: Co

We do not expn increase in bquity and mon

Anima Holding

A: actual; Source: Co

At the same timemain basically

&L estimate

Our 2014E-16E

1.7% in total

2.3% in EBITD

6.1% in adjuexpenses.

otal net revenu

A 6.5% estimforecast for e

A lower expancillary fees,

aolo Researc

THIS DOCU

– AuM by prod

ompany data

ect significant balanced and ney market pro

– Mutual Fund

ompany data

me, we expect y unchanged (i

es

P&L estimates

net revenues;

DA;

sted net incom

ues’ estimates

mated 2013A-nd-of-period A

pected level o like order rou

ch Departme

UMENT MAY N

duct type 2013

changes to mflexible funds’

oducts.

ds by asset clas

the weightingt was 46% at

s factor in a 20

me, which ben

result from:

-16E CAGR inAuM (we expe

f performanceuting and secur

ent NOT BE DISTRIB

3A (%)

mutual funds’ a contribution

ss 2013A (%)

g of innovativeend-2013).

013A-16E CAG

efits from an

net managemct +8.1% 3-ye

e fees and orities services) c

BUTED IN THE

Anim

E: esti

asset allocatio(up to almost

Anim

E: esti

e products (Str

GR of:

estimated dec

ment fees, whear CAGR in av

other net comcompared to 2

UNITED STAT

ma Holding – A

mate. Source: Intesa

n. However, w33%) at the

ma Holding – M

mate; Source: Intesa

rategies and So

cline in D&A an

hich basically verage AuM);

mmissions (wh2013A.

ES, CANADA O

AuM by produc

a Sanpaolo Research

we estimate expense of

Mutual Funds b

a Sanpaolo Research

olutions) to

nd financial

reflects the

ich include

A1

OR JAPAN.

ct type 2016E (%

h

by asset class 20

h

No significanasset allocat

Net revenues


3

%)

016E (%)

nt changes in ion

s

ng 14

31

3

A

A

Ogthdenesh

A

A

Wex26exEUla20ex

32

Anima Holding


Our 2014E-16Eroup. As previhe high level oecline in the net fee/AuM. Whows an avera

Anima Holding


We expect the xpenses) to re6.7% in 2016xcluding thoseUR 14.6M in 2

ay-off incentive013); and (ii) Mxpenses (EUR 7

THIS DOC

– Net revenue

es; Source: Company

E net managemously mentionof placement ext three years

We assume a ge net fee on

– Net manage

es; Source: Company

total amount emain basicall6E from 27.9%e related to th2011, EUR 7.3Mes, as regards sM&A transactio7.8M in 2011,

CUMENT MAY

es’ trend 2013A


ment fees’ ested, the high 6fees (almost es. The table bedecline in instaverage AuM

ement fees by c


of recurring oy stable in 2

% in 2013. Whe IPO. We hiM in 2012 andstaff costs (EUons, asset dispEUR 5.4M in 2

NOT BE DISTR

A-16E (EUR M)

anpaolo Research

imates factor 69% rebate leventirely rebateelow summaristitutional profiof approx. 20b

channel (EUR M

anpaolo Research

operating cost014E-16E, wit

We would not ghlight that A

d EUR 5.8M in R 6.8M in 201

posals and IPO,2012 and EUR

RIBUTED IN TH

in a 65% avevel recorded ind to distributo

ses our assumpitability, as thebps.

M) Anim bps

RetailInstituTotal

A: actu

ts (staff costs th a cost/incoexpect additio

Anima recorde2013, which w1, EUR 1.9M i, with referenc 4.7M in 2013

Int

E UNITED STAT

erage rebate len 2013 was infors), which weptions in termse new busines

ma Holding – A

l utional

ual; E: estimates; So

and other admome slightly donal non-recued non-recurrinwere mainly rein 2012 and Ece to other adm3).

tesa Sanpao

TES, CANADA

evel for the fluenced by e expect to of average

ss currently

Average Net Fe2013A 2

38.027.834.0

urce: Company data

ministrative eclining to rring costs, ng costs of elated to: (i) UR 1.1M in ministrative

A1

olo Research

A OR JAPAN.

ee on AuM 2014E 20

38.3 325.1 232.9 3

a and Intesa Sanpao

Net managem

Operating co


Departmen

015E 20139.0 3824.6 2233.1 32

olo Research

ment fees

osts

ng 14

nt

6E8.92.82.5

In

A

N

A20

A29

Win

Thelinabec

Fotobaco

Atrfico

ntesa Sanpa

Anima Holding

ote: recurring opera

As a result, we016E.

As regards staf94.5 at end-20

We highlight thncludes:

A base salary

A benefit plan

he variable colements (Anim

nvestment teambsolute return conomic and f

or 2014-16 tho 16 senior maased on a thronditions have

Adj. cumulate

Cumulated 20

Total return comparables

According to orend in D&A nancial chargeost to be recor

aolo Researc

THIS DOCU

– Operating co

ating costs; A: actua

e estimate an

ff costs, at the011.

hat personnel

reviewed on a

n for all emplo

ompensation ima group’s perm’s variable co funds. The bo

financial perfor

e group will imanagers (for aree-year perfoe been achieved

ed EPS in 2014

014-16 net inf

to shareholde(25%).

ur forecasts, Erelated to the

es due to the rded in 2014).

ch Departme

UMENT MAY N

osts

al; E: estimates; Sou

increase in EB

e end of 2013

costs have a f

an annual basis

oyees including

s represented rformance, buompensation ionus scheme frmance.

mplement a st maximum amrmance periodd:

4-16 vs. indust

flows vs. peers

ers on the 3

EBIT and net pe PPA amortisrefinancing to

ent NOT BE DISTRIB

rce: Company data

BITDA from E

3 the group h

fixed and varia

s;

g health insuran

by a discretiusiness area, tencludes a percfor senior man

ock-granting lmount equal tod and will be

rial plan (50%

within the Ita

years vs. a

profit should bsation schedulo be completed

BUTED IN THE

and Intesa Sanpaolo

UR 158.8M in

had 218 emplo

able compone

nce and pensio

onary cash boeam and indivcentage of yeanagement is a

ong-term inceo 3% of the sapplied if the

);

lian asset man

group of liste

benefit from tle (in 15 yeard in March 20

UNITED STAT

o Research

n 2013 to EU

oyees (FTEs), d

nt. The fixed c

on fund contri

onus based ovidual performarly performan

also linked to t

entive plan (LTshare capital). e following pe

nagement indu

ed Italian and

the estimated rs) and the re014 (EUR 5M

ES, CANADA O

R 170M in

down from

component

bution.

n different mance). The nce fees on the group’s

IP) reserved The LTIP is

erformance

stry (25%);

d European

decreasing educed net refinancing

A1

OR JAPAN.

Details on st

LTIP 2014-16

Operating prbottom line


3

aff costs

rofit and

ng 14

33

3

A

NSoRe

B

Apo

AEUCDCCNCOCCCInFi

*

A

EUToCPePrTo

A:

Wshd

A

A

34

Anima Holding

otes: 2013 EBIT recource: Intesa Sanpaoesearch

Balance shee

According to ouositive net fina

Anima Holding UR M onsolidated net &A apitalised financhange in workinet tangible & inthange in other aperating cash flohange in financihange in equity hange in cash &itial cash & cashnal cash & cash Including Receivable

Anima Holding UR M otal financial debash and securitieerformance fee rrice adjustment otal net financia actual; E: estimates

We would exphareholders’ rividend pay-ou

Anima Holding


THIS DOC

– EBIT and net

alculated excluding olo Research elabora

et

ur estimates, tancial position

– Cash flow st

income

cing costs ng capital tangible capex assets & liabilitieow ial debt

& cash equivalenth equivalents* equivalents*

es related to perform

– Net financia

bt and liabilities es receivables

l debt (debt+/-cas; Source: Company

ect the cash remuneration. ut ratio of arou

– Shareholder

es; Source: Company

CUMENT MAY

t income (EUR

price adjustment. Aation on Company d

he strong cashby the end of

tatement 2

s

ts*

mance fees. A: actua

l debt trend

ash) y data and Intesa Sa

generated by Our 2014E-1

und 40-45%.

rs’ equity and d


NOT BE DISTR

M)

A: actual; E: estimatedata and Intesa Sanp

h-generating cthe current ye

2013A 119.7

22.8 4.0

23.9 -1.4

-55.3 113.7 -29.5

5.1 89.4

156.1 245.4 al; E: estimates; Sou

2013A 345.2

-209.2 -36.2 -55.5 44.3

npaolo Research

the business 6E estimates

dividends

anpaolo Research

RIBUTED IN TH

Anim

es; paolo

A: act

capability of thear.

2014E75.221.1

4-23.5

-3.237.2

110.8-166.8

0.0-56.0245.4189.4

urce: Company data

2014E180.0

-167.2-22.2

0.0-9.4

to be used fon sharehold

Int

E UNITED STAT

ma Holding – D

tual; E: estimates; So

he group shoul

2015E94.619.7

2.51.6

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Financials Anima Holding – Income statement

EUR M 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2013A-16E CAGR (%)Gross management fees 356.0 342.0 485.0 463.6 500.3 506.5 1.5Rebates -227.0 -217.0 -336.0 -304.1 -327.2 -327.4 -0.9Net management fees 129.0 125.0 148.0 159.4 173.2 179.1 6.5Other net commissions 9.0 11.0 15.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 -2.3Performance fees 7.9 29.2 57.0 34.1 36.8 38.9 -12.0Total gross revenues 373.0 382.0 556.6 511.7 551.1 559.3 0.2Total net revenues 145.7 165.1 220.2 207.6 224.0 232.0 1.7Recurring personnel cost -36.6 -33.6 -35.5 -33.5 -33.4 -34.2 -1.2Recurring other administrative costs -29.6 -25.7 -25.9 -26.4 -27.0 -27.7 2.3Total recurring costs -66.2 -59.3 -61.4 -59.9 -60.5 -62.0 0.3EBITDA 79.6 105.8 158.8 147.7 163.5 170.0 2.3Non-recurring costs -14.6 -7.3 -5.8 -3.0 0.0 0.0 -100.0Other income/cost -4.4 7.0 57.1 0.5 1.3 1.5 -70.3D&A -20.6 -20.0 -22.8 -21.1 -19.7 -18.0 -7.6EBIT 40.0 85.4 187.3 124.1 145.1 153.5 -6.4Net financial charges -22.6 -23.7 -22.3 -15.2 -6.9 -5.9 -35.7EBT 17.4 61.7 165.0 108.9 138.2 147.6 -3.6Taxes -9.0 -19.1 -45.3 -33.7 -43.6 -47.2 1.3Net income 8.4 42.6 119.7 75.2 94.6 100.4 -5.7Net income adjusted 35.6 56.9 94.4 91.8 107.9 112.7 6.1Rebate rate (%) 63.8 63.5 69.4 65.6 65.4 64.6 Cost/income* (%) 45.3 36.0 27.9 28.8 27.0 26.7 EBITDA margin** (%) 21.4 27.6 28.5 28.9 29.7 30.4 Tax rate (%) 51.9 30.9 27.5 30.9 31.6 31.9

* Cost/income calculated as Total Recurring Costs on Total Net Revenues; ** calculated on total gross revenues. A: actual; E: estimates; Source: Company data and Intesa Sanpaolo Research

Anima Holding – Assets under management

EUR Bn 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2013A-16E CAGR (%)Total AuM 35.0 40.7 46.6 50.3 54.2 56.1 6.4Mutual funds 25.0 27.9 33.9 37.5 41.2 44.0 9.1Pension Funds 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 5.9Individual accounts 9.6 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.6 11.7 -1.7Retail 22.9 25.5 27.7 29.8 32.1 34.1 7.2of which strategic partners 17.6 20.4 22.5 24.3 26.3 28.1 7.7Institutional 12.1 15.2 18.8 20.5 22.1 22.0 5.4

A: actual; E: estimates; Source: Company data and Intesa Sanpaolo Research

Anima Holding – Balance sheet

EUR M 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016ECash & cash equivalents 140.7 132.2 209.2 167.2 231.9 293.3Receivables related to products 30.4 65.5 76.7 62.2 63.9 65.3o/w related to performance fees 0.9 23.9 36.2 22.2 23.9 25.3Tangible fixed assets 3.8 3.8 3.1 2.5 2.3 2.3Intangible fixed assets 772.1 784.6 763.8 746.6 730.1 714.7Other assets 46.2 53.4 160.5 55.6 52.5 50.0Total assets 993.3 1,039.5 1,213.4 1,034.1 1,080.7 1,125.6Non-financial liabilities 57.8 68.9 91.6 67.6 69.3 74.7Financial debt 397.4 365.1 337.9 175.0 160.7 143.1Other liabilities 99.2 110.5 162.3 96.4 91.1 86.7Funds & provisions 7.3 2.9 4.7 3.0 3.0 3.0Share capital 5.6 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8Reserves 417.7 443.7 491.4 611.1 656.3 712.0Consolidated net income 8.4 42.6 119.7 75.2 94.6 100.4Total net equity 431.7 492.1 616.9 692.1 756.7 818.2Total liabilities & equity 993.3 1,039.5 1,213.4 1,034.1 1,080.7 1,125.6Total net financial debt (debt+/-cash) 267.8 219.7 44.3 -9.4 -92.6 -174.5Operating cash flow 30.9 31.4 113.7 110.8 113.2 120.9Change in cash and cash equivalents* -16.5 14.4 89.4 -56.0 66.4 62.8

* Including Receivables related to performance fees. A: actual; E: estimates; Source: Company data and Intesa Sanpaolo Research




Notes




Disclaimer Analyst certification

The financial analyst who prepared this report, and whose name and role appear on the first page, certifies that:

(1) The views expressed on companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been or will be received in exchange for any views expressed.

Specific disclosures

1. Neither the analyst nor any member of the analyst’s household has a financial interest in the securities of the Company.

2. Neither the analyst nor any member of the analyst’s household serves as an officer, director or advisory board member of the Company.

3. The analyst named in the document is a member of AIAF.

4. The analyst named in this document is not registered with or qualified by FINRA, the U.S. regulatory body with oversight over Banca IMI Securities Corp. Accordingly, the analyst may not be subject to NASD Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 with respect to communicates with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities in a personal account. For additional information, please contact the Compliance Department of Banca IMI Securities Corp at 212-326-1133.

5. The analyst of this report does not receive bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon specific investment banking transactions.

6. The research department supervisors do not have a financial interest in the securities of the Company.

7. A redacted version of this document has been disclosed to the issuer to permit it to review and comment on factual information relating to the issuer and this document has been amended following this disclosure prior to its dissemination.

This research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo SpA and distributed by Banca IMI SpA Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo SpA accepts full responsibility for the contents of this report and also reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients. Banca IMI SpA and Intesa Sanpaolo SpA, which are both part of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, are both authorised by the Banca d'Italia and are both regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.

Opinions and estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment advisor.

This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient’s own judgment. No Intesa Sanpaolo SpA or Banca IMI SpA entities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report. This document may only be reproduced or published together with the name of Intesa Sanpaolo SpA and Banca IMI SpA.

Intesa Sanpaolo SpA and Banca IMI SpA have in place a Joint Conflicts Management Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter. A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo SpA, 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA. Intesa Sanpaolo SpA has formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with conflicts of interest (“Research Policy”). The Research Policy is clearly explained in the relevant section of Intesa Sanpaolo’s web site (www.intesasanpaolo.com).

Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or their directors and/or representatives and/or employees and/or members of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and/or sale, or offer to make a purchase and/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise.

Residents in Italy: This document is intended for distribution only to professional clients and qualified counterparties as defined in Consob Regulation no. 16190 of 29.10.2007 as subsequently amended and supplemented either as a printed document and/or in electronic form.

Person and residents in the UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the FSA.

Coverage policy and frequency of research reports

The list of companies covered by the Research Department is available upon request. Intesa Sanpaolo SpA aims to provide continuous coverage of the companies on the list in conjunction with the timing of periodical accounting reports and any exceptional event that affects the issuer’s operations. The companies for which Banca IMI acts as sponsor or specialist or other regulated roles are covered in compliance with regulations issued by regulatory bodies with jurisdiction. In the case of a short note, we advise investors to refer to the most recent company report published by Intesa Sanpaolo SpA’s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation methodology, earnings assumptions, risks and the historical of recommendation and target price. Research is available on Banca IMI’s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales representative.

Valuation methodology (long-term horizon: 12M)

The Intesa Sanpaolo SpA Equity Research Department values the companies for which it assigns recommendations as follows:

We obtain a fair value using a number of valuation methodologies including: discounted cash flow method (DCF), dividend discount model (DDM), embedded value methodology, return on allocated capital, break-up value, asset-based valuation method, sum-of-the-parts, and multiples-based models (for example PE, P/BV, PCF, EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, etc.). The financial analysts use the above valuation methods alternatively and/or jointly at their discretion. The assigned target price may differ from the fair value, as it also takes into account overall market/sector conditions, corporate/market events, and corporate specifics (ie, holding discounts) reasonably considered to be possible drivers of the company’s share price performance. These factors may also be assessed using the methodologies indicated above.




Equity rating key: (long-term horizon: 12M)

In its recommendations, Intesa Sanpaolo SpA uses an “absolute” rating system, which is not related to market performance and whose key is reported below:

Equity rating key (long-term horizon: 12M) Long-term rating Definition BUY If the target price is 20% higher than the market price ADD If the target price is 10%-20% higher than the market price HOLD If the target price is 10% below or 10% above the market price REDUCE If the target price is 10%-20% lower than the market price SELL If the target price is 20% lower than the market price RATING SUSPENDED The investment rating and target price for this stock have been suspended as there is not a sufficient

fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and target price, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock.

NO RATING The company is or may be covered by the Research Department but no rating or target price is assigned either voluntarily or to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies in certain circumstances, including when Intesa Sanpaolo is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the company.

TARGET PRICE The market price that the analyst believes the share may reach within a one-year time horizon MARKET PRICE Closing price on the day before the issue date of the report, as indicated on the first page, except

where otherwise indicated

Equity rating allocations (long-term horizon: 12M)

Intesa Sanpaolo Research Rating Distribution (at February 2014) Number of companies considered: 83 BUY ADD HOLD REDUCE SELL Total Equity Research Coverage % 29 35 31 2 2 of which Intesa Sanpaolo’s Clients % (*) 54 52 42 50 50

(*) Companies on behalf of whom Intesa Sanpaolo and the other companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group have provided corporate and Investment banking services in the last 12 months; percentage of clients in each rating category

Valuation methodology (short-term horizon: 3M)

Our short-term investment ideas are based on ongoing special market situations, including among others: spreads between share categories; holding companies vs. subsidiaries; stub; control chain reshuffling; stressed capital situations; potential extraordinary deals (including capital increase/delisting/extraordinary dividends); and preys and predators. Investment ideas are presented either in relative terms (e.g. spread ordinary vs. savings; holding vs. subsidiaries) or in absolute terms (e.g. preys).

The companies to which we assign short-term ratings are under regular coverage by our research analysts and, as such, are subject to fundamental analysis and long-term recommendations. The main differences attain to the time horizon considered (monthly vs. yearly) and definitions (short-term ‘long/short’ vs. long-term ‘buy/sell’). Note that the short-term relative recommendations of these investment ideas may differ from our long-term recommendations. We monitor the monthly performance of our short-term investment ideas and follow them until their closure.

Equity rating key (short-term horizon: 3M)

Equity rating key (short-term horizon: 3M) Short-term rating Definition LONG Stock price expected to rise or outperform within three months from the time the rating

was assigned due to a specific catalyst or event SHORT Stock price expected to fall or underperform within three months from the time the rating

was assigned due to a specific catalyst or event

Company specific disclosures

Banca IMI discloses interests and conflicts of interest, as defined by: Articles 69-quater and 69-quinquies, of Consob Resolution No.11971 of 14.05.1999, as subsequently amended and supplemented; the NYSE’s Rule 472 and the NASD’s Rule 2711; the FSA Policy Statement 04/06 “Conflicts of Interest in Investment Research – March 2004 and the Policy Statement 05/03 “Implementation of Market Abuse Directive”, March 2005. The Intesa Sanpaolo Group maintains procedures and organisational mechanisms (Information barriers) to professionally manage conflicts of interest in relation to investment research. We provide the following information on Intesa Sanpaolo Group’s conflicts of interest:

1 The Intesa Sanpaolo Group has a conflict of interest inasmuch as it plans to solicit investment banking business or intends to seek compensation from the Company in the next three months.

2 Banca IMI, belonging to the Intesa Sanpaolo banking group, acting as one of the Joint Global Coordinators in the Global Offering, Joint Bookrunner in the Institutional Offering and Lead Underwriter in the Italian Public Offering, is in a situation of conflict of interest as:

- It has provided corporate finance services to some of the Selling Shareholders in the last twelve months;

- It has issued financial instruments linked to the financial instruments issued by some of the Selling Shareholders;

- It will receive commissions for the services rendered in the context of the Global Offering;

3 The Intesa Sanpaolo Group has engaged in or may in the future engage in lending, advisory and/or investment banking services to Anima Group and/or to the Selling Shareholders, in the ordinary course of business.




Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department – Head of Research: Gregorio De Felice Head of Equity & Credit Research Giampaolo Trasi +39 02 8794 9803 [email protected] Equity Research Monica Bosio +39 02 8794 9809 [email protected] Bacoccoli +39 02 8794 9810 [email protected] Meroni +39 02 8794 9817 [email protected] Luca Pacini +39 02 8794 9818 [email protected] Perini +39 02 8794 9814 [email protected] Permutti +39 02 8794 9819 [email protected] Ranieri +39 02 8794 9822 [email protected] Tonin +39 02 8794 1119 [email protected] Corporate Broking Research Alberto Francese +39 02 8794 9815 [email protected] Berti +39 02 8794 9821 [email protected] Caprini +39 02 8794 9812 [email protected] Research Production Anna Whatley +39 02 8794 9824 [email protected] Marshall +39 02 8794 9816 [email protected] Ricci +39 02 8794 9823 [email protected] Ruggeri +39 02 8794 9811 [email protected]

Banca IMI SpA - Head of Equity Derivative Sales, Trading, Cash Sales: Andrea Sozzi Sabatini

Institutional Sales Catherine d'Aragon +39 02 7261 5929 [email protected] Cavalieri +39 02 7261 2722 [email protected] Guadagni +39 02 7261 5817 [email protected] Gess +39 02 7261 5927 [email protected] Repetto +39 02 7261 5517 [email protected] Stucchi +39 02 7261 5708 [email protected] Tinessa + 39 02 7261 2158 [email protected] Wilson +39 02 7261 2758 [email protected] Corporate Broking Carlo Castellari +39 02 7261 2122 [email protected] Spinella +39 02 7261 5782 [email protected] Sales Trading Emanuele Mastroddi +39 02 7261 5880 [email protected]

Lorenzo Pennati +39 02 7261 5647 [email protected] Equity Derivatives Institutional Sales Andrea Martini +39 02 7261 5977 [email protected] De Paoli +39 02 7261 5821 [email protected] Ferrari +39 02 7261 2806 [email protected] Manini +39 02 7261 5936 [email protected] Murgino +39 02 7261 2247 [email protected]

Banca IMI SpA – Head of Market Hub: Gherardo Lenti Capoduri

E-commerce Distribution Alessandra Minghetti +39 02 7261 2973 [email protected] Riccardi (Retail e-commerce) +39 02 7261 2089 [email protected] Menconi (Institutional e-commerce) +39 02 7261 5492 [email protected] Giovanni Spotti (E-sales) +39 02 7261 2339 [email protected] Brokerage & Execution Sergio Francolini +39 02 7261 5859 [email protected]

Banca IMI SpA

Largo Mattioli, 3 20121 Milan, Italy Tel: +39 02 7261 1

Banca IMI London Branch

90 Queen Street London EC4N 1SA, UK Tel +44 207 894 2600

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