Angst in Resource Security Considerations · • Pakistan, Nepal, [Afghanistan, too?] ... •...
Transcript of Angst in Resource Security Considerations · • Pakistan, Nepal, [Afghanistan, too?] ... •...
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Angst in Resource Security Considerations:
Cross-border water between China and India
Zha DaojiongPeking University
Email: [email protected]
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Beijing Forum 2010 2
The angst• Food and water
– Important for China and India• Self sufficiency an attractive goal
– Now and into the indefinite future• Rising income, changing food preference, growing demand
• China has a history of mega food/energy infrastructures– Grand Canal– Three Gorges Dam, West-East Gas Pipeline– South-to-North Water Diversion
• China is an “upstream superpower”– Vetoed U.N. Watercourses Convention, 1997
• Also, Turkey, Burundi– India has not signed it
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Beijing Forum 2010 3
The Angst• Uncertainties in overall China-India relations
– Unsettled border line; Zangnan 藏南 vs Arunachal Pradesh– Tibetans in India and stability in Tibet– Neighbors matter a great deal in bilateral ties
• Pakistan, Nepal, [Afghanistan, too?] • The United States (a significant ‘third neighbor’)
– “Power transition” in progress, as seen in International Relations theorization
• Demographic, aggregate economic indicators
• War over water in the making?– Indian persistence in airing concern
• Damming + diversion– Chinese shock at Indian alarm– Climate change and interest from wider world
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Beijing Forum 2010 4
China’s Regional Composition of theoretical hydropower potential, %
• Based on 2005 nation-wide survey– Earlier surveys done in 1950,
1955, 1980• Southwest region = Sichuan +
Yunnan + Tibet + Guizhou– Sichuan and Tibet: 1st and
2nd in potential
– Transmission breakthrough• Ultra high voltage direct
current line, ±800 kV; Yunnan – Shanghai, 2,071km
5918
114 4 2
Southwest Mid-south Northwest
East Northeast North
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Beijing Forum 2010 5
Energy in Tibet• No indigenous oil or coal• Organic sources
– Firewood, straw, yak dung– Over 50% of rural homes
• Power grid in place (藏中电网)– Chronic blackouts, brownouts– 80% of electricity from hydro
• Winter heating a problem• Renewable sources
– Solar, wind, biomass– Supplementary
• Solutions– Connection to Qinghai grid
• Hydro, coal-, gas-fired– More indigenous hydro
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Beijing Forum 2010 6
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Beijing Forum 2010 7
Yaluzangbu -Brahmaputra
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Beijing Forum 2010 8
Tributary scene
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Beijing Forum 2010 9
China’s Water Diversion
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"Going Against the Flow", Science, 25 August 2006, p. 1035
10
A quick sketch in U.S.-based Science magazine
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Beijing Forum 2010 11
Water for wheat
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Beijing Forum 2010 12
Great western route 大西线
• Shuomatan to Tianjin (天津) – 朔马滩,near 山南地区,
羊村水文站
• Way west from the “Great Bend” point in Indian texts
– Notion identified with GuoKai (郭开)
• Retired solider in his 70s, • Caught attention in mid-
1980s • Not based on field survey
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Beijing Forum 2010 13
Water flows from Tibet to TarimBasin (??)
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Beijing Forum 2010 14
Great western route• Criticized as ‘utter nonsense’, ‘sheer fantasy’
– See “Controversial Plan to Tap Tibetan Waters”http://www.china.org.cn/english/MATERIAL/177295.htm
• Enthusiasts keep notion alive– After all, Yellow River runoff, worsened in late 1990s
• Government agency: no word about west route– http://www.nsbd.gov.cn/
• Regardless, worries in India sustain– Persistent reference to Scientific American piece in June 1996
• By John Horgan, "'Peaceful' Nuclear Explosions" • Journalistic account of using nuclear explosion for tunnel
construction in Tibetan plateau
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Beijing Forum 2010 15
China India cooperation in sharing hydrological data
• MoU signed in 2002– China provides information on Yaluzangbu river in
flood season• Water level, discharge, rainfall• At Nugesha, Yangcun and Nuxia stations • June 1 thru October 15, annually
– Expired in 2007 – New MoU signed in June 2008; valid for five years
• Langqin Zangbu (朗钦藏布)/ Sutlej MoUsigned in 2005– Sharing data collected at Tsada station (札达水文站)– From monsoon season of 2007
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Beijing Forum 2010 16
Governmental level cooperation• Joint Expert Level Mechanism set up in Nov., 2006
– Discussion about cooperation • Provision of flood season hydrological data, emergency
management, etc. • Responsible ministries: water resources
– 1st Mechanism meeting took place in September 2007, Beijing– 2nd meeting held in April 2008
• Agreed on annual meeting arrangement
• Source of information: government of India portal– india.gov.in/sectors/water_resources/international_corp.php
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Beijing Forum 2010 17
At issue
• For managing bilateral relations– Better, broader awareness about hydrological
connections • Beginning with how much water flows from Yaluzangbu to
Brahmaputra
– Data sharing and analysis • Hydrological projects upstream
– Size & scale, or other issues?• Location
– Site in the tributary system, a bilateral issue? • Electric power for local consumption vs for export
– Does it even matter?
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Beijing Forum 2010 18
At issue
• For more general international studies– In what ways is water comparable to oil?– Worldwide lessons in such policy areas as
• Irrigation farming• Water-saving industrial process• Economic incentives for water conservation• Ecological immigration, away from deserts• “Virtual water” concept in food production & trade
– How do we inform ourselves?• Academic disciplinary boundaries
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Beijing Forum 2010 19
Thank you for listening
• Questions and comments welcome