ANFIL Gas - Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide · ANFIL Gas™ Very Large Gas Carriers Market Update...

ANFIL Gas™

Very Large Gas Carriers Market Update – Q2 2015

SECTION A – Spot & Time Charter Market ()

SECTION B – Product Pricing (Page 4)

SECTION C – Cargoes Flow in Spot Market, Charterers & Shipowners share in Spot Market (Page 6)

SECTION D – Assets Information (Page 12)

July 2015

ANFIL Gas™ Very Large Gas Carriers Market Update – Q2 2015

SECTION A – Spot & Time Charter Market

Spot Market in USD pmt – Main Freight Routes Diagram

Spot Market in USD pmt - Comparison Table 2014 vs. 2015¹

Month USG-JPN USG-NWE MEG-FE

2015 2014 Difference 2015 2014 Difference 2015 2014 Difference

April 196,0 228,8 -14,3% 78,4 93,3 -16,0% 82,3 116,2 -29,2%

May 225,0 281,7 -20,1% 85,6 101,8 -15,9% 101,9 89,7 +13,6%

June 247,3 258,0 -4,1% 93,8 100,0 -6,2% 113,6 111,9 +1,5%

¹Based on average monthly rates

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USG-JPN route USG-NWE route MEG-JPN route MEG-S.China route MEG-N.China route


Spot Market in USD per day Diagram¹ ²

¹Up to Week 29 (July 17th)

²Based on Ras Tanura – Chiba round voyage, for a modern VLGC

Spot Market in USD per day – Q2 Historical Average Rates Diagram

54.208

26.417

32.417

4.583

21.29217.417

36.417 37.375

91.75097.000

41.888

55.992

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 10 Years

Average

5 Years

Average

0

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.000

120.000

140.000

160.000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

US

D P

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WEEKS

2015 2014 5 Y Average


1 Year TCE Rate in USD per day¹

¹Monthly Average

· Assessment for hire rate of a modern VLGC for a 3 Years period set at levels of USD mid forties’ thousand per day.

· Assessment for hire rate of a modern VLGC for a 5 Years period set at levels of USD mid thirties’ thousand per day.

Number of Spot & Period fixtures within Q2 – 2014 vs. 2015

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SECTION B – Product Pricing

Propane & Butane Pricing – Saudi Aramco CP vs. Sonatrach CP vs. US MT Belvieu Average FOB

Saudi Aramco CP Price Q2 Table – 2015 vs. 2014 (USD pmt)

Month Propane Butane

2015 2014 Difference 2015 2014 Difference

April 460,0 770,0 -40,3% 470,0 845,0 -44,4%

May 465,0 819,0 -43,2% 475,0 825,0 -42,4%

June 405,0 835,0 -51,5% 440,0 835,0 -47,3%

Sonatrach CP Price Q2 Table – 2015 vs. 2014 (USD pmt)



April 375,0 755,0 -50,3% 435,0 805,0 -46,0%

May 365,0 720,0 -49,3% 420,0 730,0 -42,5%

June 310,0 755,0 -58,9% 360,0 730,0 -50,7%

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D /

MT

Saudi C3 CP Price Saudi C4 CP Price Sonatrach C3 CP Price

Sonatrach C4 CP Price US C3 Monthly Average Price US C4 Monthly Average Price

US/Saudi Difference C3 US/Saudi Difference C4


US MT Belvieu Monthly Average FOB Price Q1 Table – 2015 vs. 2014 (USD pmt)



April 284,6 574,7 -50,5% 297,8 575,8 -48,3%

May 239,0 542,9 -56,0% 271,7 556,7 -51,2%

June 190,7 545,5 -65,0% 237,8 572,7 -58,5%

CIF Japan Price Assesment – Supply ex Saudi vs. US based on 3 different scenarios of C3/C4 ratio¹

¹Based on FOB Prices and monthly Spot average rates of the related routes

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MEG C3/C4: 50/50 USG C3/C4: 50/50 MEG C3/C4: 60/40 USG C3/C4: 60/40 MEG C3/C4: 40/60 USG C3/C4: 40/60


SECTION C – Cargoes Flow in Spot Market, Charterers & Shipowners share in Spot Market

Loading Areas

Discharging Areas

60%23%

7%

7%

2% 1%

MEG & Red Sea USG WAF North Africa Australia North Europe

57%

29%

7%

4% 3%

FE India Caribs. & South America North Europe MED


Cargoes Destination Loaded in MEG & Red Sea¹ (in parentheses Q1 figures)

¹Loading Terminals: Ras Laffan, Mina Al Ahmadi, Ruwais, Ras Tanura, Das Island, Yanbu

Cargoes Destination Loaded in USA¹ (in parentheses Q1 figures)

¹Loading Terminals: Houston (USG), Ferndale (USWC), Balboa STS Area (WC Panama)


Cargoes Destination Loaded in North Africa & North Europe¹ (in parentheses Q1 figures)

¹Loading Terminals NAF: Bethioua – Loading Terminals NWE: Kaarstoe

Cargoes Destination Loaded in WAF & Australia¹ (in parentheses Q1 figures)

¹Loading Terminals WAF: Bonny, Sanha FPSO – Loading Terminals Australia: Dampier


Charterers’ Share in Spot market based on loading areas – MEG & Red Sea

The 48% of Spot fixtures made on account of the Indian Importers of IOC, BPCL & HPCL.

Charterers’ Share in Spot market based on loading areas – USA

34%

12%

12%

9%

7%

5%

5%

2%

2%

2%

2%2% 2%

2% 2%

IOC BPCL SHELL KPC SK GAS ASTOMOS TOTAL STATOIL

HPCL VITOL BAYEGAN GEOGAS GLENCORE ITOCHU NAFTOMAR

29%

23%18%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

SHELL PETROBRAS BP PETREDEC STATOIL TOTAL VILMA VITOL


Charterers’ Share in Spot market based on loading areas – WAF, NAF, NWE & Australia

WAF: Fixtures were equally shared between Chevron, E1, Petredec, Shell and Vitol

respectively. NWE: Fixture made on account of Statoil.

North Africa: Fixtures’ 40% made on account of Gunvor, while another 40% made for Total respectively. The rest 20% accounts for Shell.

Australia: Fixture made on account of Astomos.

Shipowners/Operators’ Share in Spot market based on loading areas – MEG & Red Sea

The number of the different Owners/Operators involved in Spot market ex. MEG decreased to 12 compared

with 20 during 1st Q of 2015 respectively. Avance Gas maintened her leading position followed -same like

last quarter- by Phoenix Tankers, Aurora LPG and Dorian LPG.

A large amount of relets should be also noted that have been traded in Spot market, while vessels faced long

period delays at Indian terminals due to port congestion, which in some case leaded to cancellation of

scheduled fixtures. On the other hand owners have been paid very high demurrages by charterers as well.

0,0%

2,0%

4,0%

6,0%

8,0%

10,0%

12,0%

14,0%

16,0%

18,0%

20,0%


Shipowners/Operators’ Share in Spot market based on loading areas – USA

¹ Liftings made by Neu Gas refer to the Panamax capable VLGCs that German Owner controlls. Cargoes

are loaded in Houston and via Panama Canal are discharged through STS operation to other VLGCs in the

OPL Bilbao STS Area.

Shipowners/Operators’ Share in Spot market based on loading areas – WAF, NAF, NWE & Australia

WAF: Cargoes were loaded in equal proportion onboard vessels owned by Dorian LPG, BW LPG, Petredec, KSS Line & Doun Kisen respectively. NWE: NS United KK (Astomos’ relet) shipped the

cargo ex. Norway.

North Africa: S. Korean’s ShippingBank secured the

shippment of the 40% of the cargoes, while the 60% was equally shared between Dorian LPG, Avance Gas & Transpetrol respectively.

Australia: BP Shipping shipped the cargo ex.

Dampier.

0,0%

5,0%

10,0%

15,0%

20,0%

25,0%

Dorian LPG Avance Gas Phoenix Neu Gas¹ NS United

KK

BW LPG BP shipping SK Shipping Tomza Zodiac


SECTION D – Assets’ Information

Assets’ Historical Values Diagram

As of the end of Q2 2015, market values set at USD 78 MIO for newbuildings, USD 95 MIO for NB resales, USD 83 MIO for 5 Years Old units,

USD 67 MIO for 10 Years Old Units and USD 43 MIO for 15 Years Old Units respectively.

Newbuilding Orders within Q2 2015

Buyer Capacity (m³) Delivery Yard Price (USD MIO) Unit(s) Employment

Tomza 84.000 2017 Hyundai HI 79.0 1 Pemex

Newbuilding Deliveries within Q2 2015

Vessel Capacity (m³) Yard Owner Commercial Manager Employment

Breeze 83.000 Jiangnan Avance Gas Avance Gas Spot

BW Leo 84.000 HHI BW LPG BW LPG

Cougar 84.000 Hyundai Samho Dorian LPG Helios LPG Pool Spot

Cobra 84.000 Hyundai Samho Dorian LPG Helios LPG Pool Shell

Concorde 84.000 Hyundai HI Dorian LPG Helios LPG Pool Spot

Passat 83.000 Jiangnan Avance Gas Avance Gas Spot

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Newbuildings Re-Sale 5 Years Old 10 ears Old 15 Years Old


2nd Hand Sale & Purchase Transactions within Q1 2015

Vessel Capacity (m³) Built Yard Seller Buyer Price (USD MIO) Re-named

Hull 2351 84.000 2016E DSME China Peace BW LPG 72.5 TBA




Gas Scorpio 78.462 1995 Mitsubishi Astomos Truong Phat Loc 39.0 TBA

ADDITIONAL - Highlights of the Q2

Japanese LPG mega-traders Astomos and Eneos Globe have signed a Heads of Agreement targeting the jointly optimization of procurement, imports, distribution and trading overseas of LPG. Based on current volumes that both are procured and trade they will be able to handle together up to about 15 mmtpa of LPG. The combined shipping fleet will count nearly 30 VLGCs able to move up to 10 mmtpa, covering the import needs for domestic market of 6 mmtpa and simulteniously about 4 mmtpa LPG volumes for serving South East Asian and Indian clients as well. It is notable that this strategic decision took place after the establishment of Pyxis Corporation last April, when for same reasons decided to join their forces Cosmo Oil, Showa Shell, Sumitomo Corp. and TonenGeneral. Pyxis

targets the import and trade of totally 3.8 mmtpa, while currently they controll a fleet of 5 VLGC and plan to add additional tonnage within forthcoming months respectively. BW Euroholdings, a 100% sudsidiary of BW Group,announced the purchase of 6 million shares of the NYSE listed Dorian LPG,

representing about the 10.2% of the total shares oustanding in Dorian. Price set at USD 15.34 per share or nearly USD 92 MIO in total. BW LPG has the option to purchase subject shares at same price no later than 27th August 2015. BW Group holds the 47% of the shares on issue of Oslo Børs listed BW LPG.

China’s Yantai Wanhua Chemical plans the start-up of the new PDH plant in Shandong by late July/early August after a few delays since end March 2015. The new PDH plant will have a propylene production capacity of 750,000 mtpa and can use up to 900,000 mtpa of propane and 600,000 mtpa of butane as feedstock. The plant after the initial start-up will need up to 3 months to reach its full production capacity, while since end of July has taken delivery of 4 VLGC parcels of LPG mixture. S. Korea’s Hyosung Corporation plans the initial start-up of the new PDH plant in Ulsan by end August 2015. The plant will have a propylene production capacity of 300,000 mtpa. This is the second PDH plant of Hyosung, who controlls another plant in Ulsan with a nominal capacity of 200,000 mtpa.

ANFIL Maritime Inc. – ANFIL GAS Megaron Traki

1, Ch. Trikoupi Street ZIP 185 36, Piraeus

Greece

Tel: +30 210 42 80 401 Fax: +20 210 42 80 402

Email: [email protected]

Web: www.anfilmaritime.com

ANFIL Gas - Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide · ANFIL Gas™ Very Large Gas Carriers Market Update...

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