Andy Stirling SPRU – science and technology policy research presentation to workshop on …...
-
Upload
luciano-pittman -
Category
Documents
-
view
213 -
download
1
Transcript of Andy Stirling SPRU – science and technology policy research presentation to workshop on …...
Andy Stirling SPRU – science and technology policy research
presentation to workshop on ‘… Management of Variation and Diversity’,
Forum Chriesbach, Zurich, 15-8 April 2007
1: Diversity – much discussed but surprisingly little analysed
2: The nature of diversity and some different approaches
Pathways, Politics and Diversity
in the Governance of Technological Transitions
3: A new general conceptual framework and heuristic
explanatory / normative heuristic – destabilising / keystone concept(epistemic ‘niche’ not ‘landscape’)
4: Some implications: towards ‘Transition Portfolios’?
Disciplinary Interests in Techno-Institutional Diversity
History and philosophy of science (Merton, Kuhn, Nowottny) interactions in
diverse scientific disciplines enhance rigour and creativity
Research and innovation strategies (Rosenberg, Rothwell, Landau) diverse
portfolios offer flexibility and learning across programmes
Governance of science and technology (Gibbons, Walker, Jasanoff) diversity of engagement
promotes trust, democracy and social robustness
Regulation of technological risk and sustainability (Norgaard, NRC, EEA) diverse knowledges
/ perspectives foster adaptive, precautionary policy
Strategic technology policy (eg: energy security) (Brooks, Folke, EC, IEA) diversity of
technological options provides resilience to shock and surprise
Mainstream market economics (Ricardo, Markowitz, Hayek) diversity of firms resists
oligopolistic concentration, enhances competition
Evolutionary economics (Grabher, Dosi, Metcalfe, Arthur) diversity of actors,
functions and contexts generates ‘fitness’ in innovation
PROVENANCETEMPORALITY
transientdisruption(transient disruption)
enduringpressure
(enduring pressure)
internal(to system / frames)
external (to system / frames)
STABILITY
DURABILITY
RESILIENCE
ROBUSTNESS
Diversity and Sustainable Technologies
Dynamic Properties of Sustainable Infrastructures (Adrian)
PROVENANCETEMPORALITY
transientdisruption
enduringpressure
internal external
STABILITY
DURABILITY
RESILIENCE
ROBUSTNESS
Diversity and Sustainable Technologies
diversity is ubiquitous in general strategies
towards sustainable technological systems
Dynamic Properties of Sustainable Infrastructures
eg: major element in energy security policy
Diversity in Energy Technology Transitions
Like all technological systems, diversity is key emergent property of energy
systems, even if not deliberately planned
reflect context diversity allows sensitivity to heterogeneous context
Austrian hydro, Norwegian gas, Swedish biomass
point arose strongly – especially in
Raimund’s and Eva’s presentations
Diversity in Energy Technology Transitions
Socio-technical diversity also relevant to deliberate transition-building
foster innovation diverse configurations and contexts stimulate creativity
interactions between microgeneration technologies
Like all technological systems, diversity is key emergent property of energy
reflect context diversity allows sensitivity to heterogeneous context
Diversity in Energy Technology Transitions
foster innovation diverse configurations and contexts stimulate creativity
mitigate ‘lock-in’ diverse portfolios resist pressures to concentrate
support for different PV concepts and trajectories
Like all technological systems, diversity is key emergent property of energy
reflect context diversity allows sensitivity to heterogeneous context
Socio-technical diversity also relevant to deliberate transition-building
Diversity in Energy Technology Transitions
foster innovation diverse configurations and contexts stimulate creativity
mitigate ‘lock-in’ diverse portfolios resist pressures to concentrate
hedge ignorance ‘eggs in different baskets’ anticipate surprise
energy security or unforeseen environment issues
Like all technological systems, diversity is key emergent property of energy
reflect context diversity allows sensitivity to heterogeneous context
Socio-technical diversity also relevant to deliberate transition-building
Diversity in Energy Technology Transitions
foster innovation diverse configurations and contexts stimulate creativity
mitigate ‘lock-in’ diverse portfolios resist undue pressures to concentrate
hedge ignorance ‘eggs in different baskets’ anticipate surprise
accommodate dissent diversity helps reconcile plural values and interests
polarisation behind nuclear, renewable, clean coal…
both about orientation and mode of transition path
Like all technological systems, diversity is key emergent property of energy
reflect context diversity allows sensitivity to heterogeneous context
Socio-technical diversity also relevant to deliberate transition-building
– What is diversity? Variety? Difference? Concentration?
– Which things to diversify?
Towards a Systematic Approach
Staffan: technologies
Raimund: communities
Fred: actors, attributes
Kornelia: 3 types of variety in TIS
Eva: expectations, levels, local ‘solutions’
Daniel: regime plasticity – supporting sustainability
Uli: transformative capacity / institutional adaptability
– How to make diversity symmetrically operational for all salient aspects?
address Jochen’s point on levels of aggregation and system delineation
Some Key Questions
– What is diversity?
– Which things to diversify?
– How should we articulate diversity with other portfolio properties?
Towards a Systematic Approach
Philip: trade-offs
Marko: 7 functions
Staffan: 5 (6) functions
Kornelia, Frans: portfolio interactions
Adrian: normative frameworks and pathway stability
Raimund: scale economies, sustainability performance, business criteria
Some Key Questions
– What is diversity?
Ambiguities inhibit practical policy attention
– ‘apple pie’ rhetoric is vulnerable to special pleading
– Which things to diversify?
– How should we articulate diversity with other portfolio properties?
– high profile, but circumscribed and surprisingly neglected
Towards a Systematic Approach
Key point: diversity is not a ‘free lunch’
– foregone benefits, standardisation, scale, transaction costs,
diminished accountability, reduced stability of transition paths
Highlights need for systematic framework for analysing ‘diversity’ …
Some Key Questions
increasing diversity
What is Diversity?
capital investments / research programmes / development strategiessocio-technical trajectories / strategic niches / transition portfolios
comprising mix of elementseg: coal, oil, gas, nuclear, wind
increasing diversity
balanceevenness in contributionseg: nuclear – Japan vs France
varietynumber of options in mixeg: Norway vs USA
disparitydegree of differences
eg: renewables vs fossil
What is Diversity?
VARIETY = the number of options in a portfolio
conventional framing in economics and policy
convenient proxy in absence of complex analysis, BUT
- partitioning of ‘techno-institutional options’?
eg: ‘biofuels’ – or biodiesel, bioethanol, biogas?
eg: Saviotti,, Metcalfe, Llerena, Kaufmann – much discussion at this workshop
Conventional Approaches to Technological Diversity
- when to start counting?
eg: one PV array? ten thousand? 0.1% of system?
- what about varying degrees of niche representation in transition portfolio?
eg: “90% / 5% / 5%” or “33% / 33% / 33%”
- what about the degree to which options are different from each other?
eg: biodiesel, bioethanol, biogas, CaTe PV, CIS PV, a-Si PV?
BALANCE = ‘evenness’ of option contributions
indices from ecology / information theory
readily applicable and comprehensive in scope
- does address problem of when to start counting (partitioning)
eg: one PV array? ten thousand? 0.1% of system?
eg: Stirling, 1994; DTI, 1995; 2006; Grubb, 2004; use Shannon (– i pi.ln pi )
Conventional Approaches to Technological Diversity
- does address varying degrees of representation in system
eg: “90% / 5% / 5%” or “33% / 33% / 33%” BUT:
- still raise questions over ‘when is it one option and when two’?
eg: ‘biofuels’ – or biodiesel, bioethanol, biogas?
- treat options as if they are all equally different from each other
eg: biodiesel, bioethanol, biogas, CaTe PV, CIS PV, a-Si PV?
DISPARITY = degree to which options are different
portfolio theory, taxonomy, cladistics
Portfolio methods are powerful for financial planning in firms, BUT:
- address differences entirely in terms of past experience
eg: MVPA (Markowitz, Lucas, Awerbuch); Lancaster, Weitzman
Conventional Approaches to Technological Diversity
- highly circumscribed in scope (eg: fuel prices)
- highly restrrictive assumptions (eg: normal probability distributions)
- assumes single objective characterisation of difference
- neglects variety
- neglects balance
need to address and explore variety, balance and disparity
ie: - number of options in the portfolio
- proportional representation of options in the portfolio
- degree to which options are different from each other
Towards a Complete, Integrated Diversity Concept
need to avoid sensitivities to arbitrary assumptions
eg: - when to start counting? when one option and when two?
- assumption that difference reduces to single parameter
- assumption uncertainty can be treated probabilistically
- assumption that past predicts future
- assumption that all data is normally distributed need symmetry on divergent contexts, views and dimensions
eg: - include wider economic, environmental and social criteria
- be flexible towards different values and priorities
For any given perspective on the appraisal of a given transition context
option differences can be seen as dimensions in ‘disparity space’
Constructing a General Diversity Heuristic
number of dimensions represent different aspects of option disparity
Constructing a General Diversity Heuristic
For any given perspective on the appraisal of a given transition context
option differences can be seen as dimensions in a ‘disparity space’
number of dimensions represent different aspects of option disparity
positions of options in space determined by any salient disparity attributes
eg: functions (Staffan / Marko)
features (Eva / Daniel)
capacities (Uli)
attributes (Fred)
In principle, this framework can address any perspective
on salient features of institutions, technologies, functions, networks or effects
Constructing a General Diversity Heuristic
For any given perspective on the appraisal of a given transition context
option differences can be seen as dimensions in a ‘disparity space’
Distances between pairs of options represent their mutual disparity (da,b )
a
b
c
From Disparity to Diversity
For any given perspective on the appraisal of a given transition context
option differences can be seen as dimensions in a ‘disparity space’
Distances between pairs of options represent their mutual disparity (da,b )
Disparity of a portfolio of options is given as a function of these pairwise distances
a
b
c
da,b db,c
and…
Variety and balance can be captured by weighting this by the product of the proportional importance in the system of each option in the pair (pi.pj) = .pi.pj ij (ij) dij
From Disparity to Diversity
For any given perspective on the appraisal of a given transition context
option differences can be seen as dimensions in ‘disparity space’
1 Scaling of variety: where variety = 1, = 0
Formal Conditions for a General ‘Diversity Heuristic’
2 Monotonicity of variety: for equal B / D; rises monotonically with V
3 Monotonicity of balance: for given V / D; rises monotonically with B
4 Monotonicity of disparity: for given V / B; rises monotonically with D
5 Scaling of disparity: where aggregate difference = 0; = 0
6 Open Accommodation: is symmetric to any perspective on disparity
8 Parsimony of Form: has few components and simple structure
9 Explicit Aggregation: allows explicit weightings on V, B and D
7 Robust to Partitioning: is insensitive to aggregation on taxonomy
10 Ready Articulation: can be incorporated in portfolio performance
Can be shown robustly to fulfill first eight quality criteria:
= ij dij.pi .pj
Some Properties of the New Diversity Heuristic
Can be shown robustly to fulfill first eight quality criteria:
Some Properties of the New Diversity Heuristic
´ = ij (dij) .(pi .pj)
9 Allows explicit aggregations of variety, balance, disparity
Can be shown robustly to fulfill first eight quality criteria:
Some Properties of the New Diversity Heuristic
´ = ij (dij) .(pi .pj)
9 Allows explicit aggregations of variety, balance, disparity
0 0
0 1
1 0
1 1
´
ij dij0
ij pi.pj
ij dij
ij dij.pi.pj
diversity property
variety
balance
disparity
diversity
Can be shown robustly to fulfill first eight quality criteria:
Some Properties of the New Diversity Heuristic
10 Additional single term allows heuristic attention to interactions
(eg: Kornelia, Frans)
= ij dij.iij.pi .pj
9 Allows explicit aggregations of variety, balance, disparity
Some Properties of the New Diversity Heuristic
75% CCGT 25% wind
PORTFOLIO A
Can be shown robustly to fulfill first eight quality criteria:
10 Additional single term allows heuristic attention to
interactions
= ij dij.iij.pi .pj
9 Allows explicit aggregations of variety, balance, disparity
Some Properties of the New Diversity Heuristic
75% CCGT 25% wind
PORTFOLIO A
+
+
Can be shown robustly to fulfill first eight quality criteria:
10 Additional single term allows heuristic attention to
interactions
= ij dij.iij.pi .pj
9 Allows explicit aggregations of variety, balance, disparity
Some Properties of the New Diversity Heuristic
75% CCGT 25% wind
PORTFOLIO A
+
+
75% nuclear 25% wind
PORTFOLIO B
value [ { A } ] > value [ { B } ]
Can be shown robustly to fulfill first eight quality criteria:
10 Additional single term allows heuristic attention to
interactions
= ij dij.iij.pi .pj
9 Allows explicit aggregations of variety, balance, disparity
APPRAISE PERFORMANCEtechnology options / policy criteria
CHARACTERISE DISPARITYinstitutions / functions / technologies
DEFINE INTERACTIONSportfolio relationships, system effects
ANALYSE PRIORITIESdiversity / performance
Mapping Diversity – Performance Relationships
– economicsfunctions ,
capacitiessustainability metrics
– Fred’s “facilitation of reflexive action”
– attributes dimensionstypesfunctions,
capacities– research programmes
innovation systems transition paths
APPRAISE PERFORMANCEtechnology options / policy criteria
CHARACTERISE DISPARITYinstitutions / functions / technologies
DEFINE INTERACTIONSportfolio relationships, system effects
ANALYSE PRIORITIESdiversity / performance
Mapping Diversity – Performance Relationships
Fred:
“embrace cognitive diversity”
APPRAISE PERFORMANCEtechnology options / policy criteria
CHARACTERISE DISPARITYinstitutions / functions / technologies
DEFINE INTERACTIONSportfolio relationships, system effects
ANALYSE PRIORITIESdiversity / performance
Mapping Diversity – Performance Relationships
DELIBERATE OVER
FINDINGS
divergent assumptions
and perspectives
Look for Pareto dominance in all possible portfolios
under each particular perspective (eg: for three options)
diversity
aggregate portfolio performance
(economic, functions, sustainability)
dominant portfolios lie on this boundary
Mapping Links between Diversity and Performance
Results of a Schematic Energy Example
Identifies ‘efficient frontier’ for each perspective
portfolio
contribution
not optimisation – each perspective treated separately
max max
performance diversity
but a ‘heuristic’ – allows exploration of divergent perspectives
Reflexivity on Diversity in Analysis and Policy
Per
spec
tive
X
Per
spec
tive
Y
Per
spec
tive
Z
HEURISTIC FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS / CATALYST FOR REFLEXIVE DELIBERATION
Implications: towards ‘Transition Portfolios’?
• diversity is crucial in building & understanding technological transitions
- fosters innovation of a kind essential to radical infrastructure change- mitigates ‘autonomy’, ‘momentum’, ‘lock-in’ and ‘entrapment’- hedges ignorance, so helps promote resilience and precaution- accommodates divergent social interests and values
• diversity is not a ‘free lunch’, but analysis remains strangely neglected
therefore vulnerable to incoherent, rhetorical and expedient arguments
• ‘variety’, ‘balance’, ‘disparity’ are necessary properties of diversity
crucial issue is how to articulate these properties and strike a balance
between diversity and other aspects of science and technology portfolios
• heuristic framework for explanatory analysis and normative engagement
allows open, reflexive deliberation – engaging different perspectives• aids move from managerial view: unitary niches, single transition paths
towards reflexive, robust, accountable politics of transition portfolios
ANNEXES
functional application
Social, cultural, economic, historic and geographic studies converge
Diversity and Innovation
easily shown to fulfill first eight quality criteria:
= ij dij.pi .pj
Some Properties of the New Diversity Heuristic
1: if variety = 1; = 0
2: rises monotonically with variety
3: rises monotonically with balance
4: rises monotonically with disparity
5: if disparity = 0; = 0
6: accommodates any perspective on disparity
8: is simple and parsimonious
= ij dij.pi .pj
in particular: takes full account of disparity (criterion 9)
Easily shown to fulfill first eight quality criteria
Some Properties of the New Diversity Heuristic
coal gas wind coal gas wind
PORTFOLIO A PORTFOLIO B
70% 5% 25% 70% 25% 5%
{ A } > { B }
in particular: takes full account of disparity (criterion 9)
= ij dij.pi .pj
fulfils basic quality criteria outlined earlier
Some Properties of the New Diversity Heuristic
in particular: takes full account of disparity (criterion 9)
= ij dij.pi .pj
fulfils basic quality criteria outlined earlier
Some Properties of the New Diversity Heuristic
allows exploration of different weights on variety, balance, disparity
´ = ij (dij) .(pi .pj)
APPRAISE PERFORMANCEtechnology options / policy criteria
CHARACTERISE DISPARITYinstitutions / functions / technologies
DEFINE INTERACTIONSportfolio effects
ANALYSE TRADE-OFFSdiversity / performance
Mapping Diversity-Performance Relationships
APPRAISE PERFORMANCEtechnology options / policy criteria
CHARACTERISE DISPARITYinstitutions / functions / technologies
DEFINE INTERACTIONSportfolio effects
ANALYSE TRADE-OFFSdiversity / performance
Mapping Diversity-Performance Relationships
Vaggregate = i ri.pi
where:
Vaggregate = value of aggregate
performance of individualoptions
ri = value of
performance of ith option
pi =proportional representation of ith option
APPRAISE PERFORMANCEtechnology options / policy criteria
CHARACTERISE DISPARITYinstitutions / functions / technologies
DEFINE INTERACTIONSportfolio effects
ANALYSE TRADE-OFFSdiversity / performance
Mapping Diversity-Performance Relationships
{i x i matrix}yields set of (i - 1)2 / 2
disparity distances (dij)
where:
i = number of options in portfolio
dij = disparity distance
between options i and j
APPRAISE PERFORMANCEtechnology options / policy criteria
CHARACTERISE DISPARITYinstitutions / functions / technologies
DEFINE INTERACTIONSportfolio effects
ANALYSE TRADE-OFFSdiversity / performance
Mapping Diversity-Performance Relationships
{i x i matrix}yields set of (i - 1)2 / 2
Interaction multipliers (iij)
where:
i = number of options in portfolio
iij =interaction multiplier for options i and j
APPRAISE PERFORMANCEtechnology options / policy criteria
CHARACTERISE DISPARITYinstitutions / functions / technologies
DEFINE INTERACTIONSportfolio effects
ANALYSE TRADE-OFFSdiversity / performance
Mapping Diversity-Performance Relationships
ANALYSE TRADE-OFFS
diversity / performance
Mapping Diversity-Performance Relationships
total value of value of aggregate value due to system
portfolio = performance of + interactions and
performance individual options portfolio diversity
Vportfolio = i ri.pi + . ij dij.iij.pi .pj
where: Vportfolio = total value of portfolio performance
ri = value of performance of ith option
pi = proportional reliance on ith option
= marginal value of portfolio diversity
dij = disparity distance between options i and j
iij = interaction multiplier for options i and j
APPRAISE PERFORMANCEtechnology options / policy criteria
CHARACTERISE DISPARITYinstitutions / functions / technologies
DEFINE INTERACTIONSportfolio effects
ANALYSE TRADE-OFFSdiversity / performance
Mapping Diversity-Performance Relationships
APPRAISE PERFORMANCEtechnology options / policy criteria
CHARACTERISE DISPARITYinstitutions / functions / technologies
DEFINE INTERACTIONSportfolio effects
ANALYSE TRADE-OFFSdiversity / performance
Mapping Diversity-Performance Relationships
APPRAISE PERFORMANCEtechnology options / policy criteria
CHARACTERISE DISPARITYinstitutions / functions / technologies
DEFINE INTERACTIONSportfolio effects
ANALYSE TRADE-OFFSdiversity / performance
Mapping Diversity-Performance Relationships
DELIBERATE OVER
FINDINGS
divergent assumptions
and perspectives
functional application technological system
Social, cultural, economic, historic and geographic studies converge
Diversity and Innovation
functional application technological system
Social, cultural, economic, historic and geographic studies converge
Diversity and Innovation
functional application technological system institutional context
Social, cultural, economic, historic and geographic studies converge
Diversity and Innovation
functional application technological system institutional context
Social, cultural, economic, historic and geographic studies converge
Diversity and Innovation
functional application technological system institutional context
Social, cultural, economic, historic and geographic studies converge
Diversity and Innovation
densely connected network
homogeneous connectivity
impedes innovation
functional application technological system institutional context
after Grabher and Stark (1997)
Diversity and Innovation
densely connected network compartmentalised networks
homogeneous connectivity
impedes innovation
unconnected subsystems
impedes innovation
functional application technological system institutional context
after Grabher and Stark (1997)
Diversity and Innovation
densely connected network loosely coupled networks
homogeneous connectivity
impedes innovation
functional application technological system institutional context
heterogeneous connectivity
fosters innovation
after Grabher and Stark (1997)
compartmentalised networks
unconnected subsystems
impedes innovation
Diversity and Innovation
loosely coupled networks
heterogeneous connectivity
fosters innovation
technological and institutional diversity
helps foster ‘loosely coupled’ social networks
which promote more robust innovation
Diversity and Innovation
space of technologicalpossibilities
time
Social studies, philosophy, history and economics paint common picture
Diversity and Lock-in
space of technologicalpossibilities
time
Social studies, philosophy, history and economics paint common picture
Diversity and Lock-in
Technologies can present different equally-viable paths
space of technologicalpossibilities
time
Social studies, philosophy, history and economics paint common picture
Diversity and Lock-in
space of technologicalpossibilities
time
Technologies can present different equally-viable paths
but, in practice, reduced by momentum, autonomy, entrapment and lock-in
Social studies, philosophy, history and economics paint common picture
Diversity and Lock-in
space of technologicalpossibilities
time
Technologies can present different equally-viable paths
diversity mitigates lock-in and so enhances deliberate reflection and learning
Social studies, philosophy, history and economics paint common picture
for society: raises key questions over power, agency and choice
Diversity and Lock-in
knowledge aboutoutcomes
knowledge about
not problematic
problematic
outcomesnot problematic problematic
RISK
UNCERTAINTY
AMBIGUITY
IGNORANCE
Diversity, Ambiguity and Ignorance
engineering failureknown epidemicstransport safety
‘human element’global climate changeunassessed chemicals
“apples and oranges”landscape / emissions / safety
definition of GM ‘harm’
surprises like: BSE,CFCs
endocrine disruption
probabilities
Risk assessment limits are practical, methodological and theoretical Arrow’s
Nobel Prize shows ‘sound scientific’ policy is an oxymoron !
not problematic
problematic
not problematic problematic
RISK
UNCERTAINTY
AMBIGUITY
IGNORANCE
INCERTITUDE
knowledge aboutprobabilities
knowledge aboutoutcomes
Diversity, Ambiguity and Ignorance
knowledge aboutprobabilities
not problematic
problematic
knowledge aboutoutcomes
not problematic problematic
RISK
UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE
risk assessmentdecision analysiscost-benefit analysis
‘rules of thumb’sensitivity analysisscenario analysis
deliberation, negotiationcitizen participation
‘mapping’ approachesplural/conditional outcomes
horizon scanningresearch and monitoring
‘social learning’flexibility, resilience, robustness
AMBIGUITY
Diversity addresses fundamental limits to analysis and deliberation accommodates ambiguities and hedges against ignorance
Diversity, Ambiguity and Ignorance
SECURITY OF SUPPLY IS MORE THAN DIVERSITY
SECURITY DIVERSITY
- control
- interdependence
- self reliance
- planning
- efficiency
- capacity, stocks
- resilience, flexibility
- fuels
- technologies
- producer regions
- industrial interests
- supply and trade
- infrastructures
- hedge ignorance
- foster innovation
- promote competition
- accommodate values
- mitigate ‘lock-in’
DIVERSITY IS MORE THAN SECURITY OF SUPPLY
Diversity in Energy Policy
Sustainability
maintain system functions over
long termsociety, economy,
environment
stability
againstendogenous disruptions
resilience
againstexogenous
shocks
robustness
under externalshifts
The Properties of Sustainability
durability
under internal change
Diversity in this Workshop
Title key theme: ”managing variation”
Jochen ”important to maintain and enhance variety”
Staffan ”imperative to pursue in parallel varied technology clusters”
Fred ”need to focus on variety creation and selection”
Kornelia ”need to address three types of variety”
Harald ”diversity relates to institutional incoherence and adaptability”
Raimund ”diversity as a means to selection of superior products”
But many questions over meanings and contexts?
DISPARITY = degree to which options are different
complex taxonomic indices
focus directly on concepts of difference BUT:
- assumes single objective characterisation of difference
eg: Weitzmann Function maxiS { DW(S \ i) + dW(i, S \ i) } (also Lancaster)
Conventional Approaches to Technological Diversity
- assumes universally ‘rooted directed tree’ (utltrametric distances)
- neglects variety
- neglects balance