Andy Kondola - Western Power - Evolution of the electricity grid

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Andy Kondola A network perspective

Transcript of Andy Kondola - Western Power - Evolution of the electricity grid

Page 1: Andy Kondola - Western Power - Evolution of the electricity grid

Andy Kondola

A network perspective

Page 2: Andy Kondola - Western Power - Evolution of the electricity grid

State Government-owned corporation that builds, maintains and operates electricity network throughout majority of south Western Australia

Governed by an independent Board and reports to Minister for Energy, as owner’s representative

Serving more than one million customers across a network area of 254,920 km2

Customer-orientated organisation that provides a safe, reliable and affordable electricity supply to Western Australians

Provides an essential service through transmission and distribution of electricity across our vast infrastructure of poles, wires, substations and depots

Who we are – Western Power

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Western Power - What we do

Power Generation Retailer

Western power An energy trading platform

Our Customers

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While PV installation rate increasing

Power consumption plateauing

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Western Power Network Trend Change in Peak Load Demand

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CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate; FYE = Financial Year Ending

Alternative regression measures of trend growth suggest trend growth rate between 1% to 2% per year

Underlying connection growth rate is 3.8% per year

FYE1999 -2003

2003 -2007

2007 -2011

2011 -2015

CAGR 5.4% 6.5% 2.8% 0.2%

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Grid volumes are declining

Western Power’s per connection residential grid consumption has declined 17% over the last 5 years.

Total grid consumption is expected to continue to decline, despite population growth increasing connections.

Source: Western Power forecasts 2016

SWIS per connection consumption is declining

6,223

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

2009 2011 2013 2015

kWh

SWIS residential consumption trendAnnual, per capita 2009-2015

Commercial consumption per connection is also forecast to decline by ~1% a year.

17%

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Peak demand is placing upwards pressure on investment2

Peak demand

MW

Peak demand is increasing in certain areas

Peak network demand is primarily a function of climate extremes year on year but exhibits small underlying growth rate in line with WA population trends, despite decreasing consumption. Peak demand is increasing in 6 of 15 load areas.

Network peak demand

Source: Western Power forecasts 2016

Peak demand can be extremely volatile

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Actual electricity consumption

Forecast electricity consumption

Peak demand (MW)

PoE10 Forecast

Total grid consumption

GWh

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PV installation rates for WA increasing

Source: Australian Energy Council Solar PV Report – June 2016

WA

QLD

VIC

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Economics of emerging technologies in WA

Non network solutions make economic sense in edge of grid areas

Large areas of the network cost more to replace/maintain than the revenue collected by Synergy through the retail tariff

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Current SWIS model• Central mesh

network • Long transmission

links and branch network radiating from core area

• Fully integrated, sharing generation capacity

Future model with small number of islanded systems

• Bulk of network unchanged

• SPS and islanded micro-grids created at periphery

• Outlying branches disconnected to avoid capital expenditure

Extreme model without centralised network

• Multiple micro-grids / smaller connected systems

Stand alone power systems

(SPS)

Micro-

gridMesh

network

Branch network

Future model with variable network types

• Some SPS and micro-grids in periphery of network

• Thin pipe connections to areas with local generation and storage

Integrated Network Fringe Disconnection Modular Network Fully Decentralised

Possible evolution of WA’s network

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The Western Power of the future…

Modular Network Future model with variable network types:

Strongly meshed urban distribution networks;

Some SPS and micro-grids in periphery of network;

Thin pipe connections to areas with local generation and storage;

Micro-grids developing with infill projects; and

Continued relevance of transmission networks in some areas.

Stand alone power systems (SPS)

Micro-grid

Mesh network

Branch network

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Our emerging tech projects

MicrogridWhite Gum Valley

BESS battery storage Perenjori

Large scale MicrogridKalbarri

Demand Management trialMandurah

Microgrid with scale renewablesCarnegie Wave Farm

Stand Alone Power SystemRavensthorpe

Mandurah

White Gum Valley

Fremantle

Perenjori

•••

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Power flow

Critical circuit

LEGEND

Kalbarri’s Microgrid

GERALDTON

New

New

Existing

Existing

Business

Homes

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Key assumptions

1. Generation will be over-sized for town’s peak to provide a commercial incentive to private generation.

2. The 33kV line will remain in service as the predominant operating mode (Kalbarri as a day-time generation centre).

3. Battery and energy management system will address (under commercial arrangements with generators) voltage and frequency support for the system.

4. The microgrid is intended to provide reliability of supply comparable to that of Geraldton – ie not a perfect solution.

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Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) Pilot - Perenjori

Will help us gain experience using battery storage on the network, how does it interact and perform?

We expect this to improve power reliability for our customers in Perenjori

We expect this will successfully defer capital investment

Perenjori•

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Stand alone power system pilot

The trial will test

Reliability improvements for customers

Costs and benefits compared to maintaining overhead powerlines

If it is the right solution for specific customers in rural and regional areas

Budget: $4.0 M

Timeline: June 2017 – pilot complete

Great Southern and Southern Wheatbelt

ONGERUP

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Emerging tech gives us opportunities to defer capital expenditure

Stand alone power systems may present a lower-cost alternative to rebuilding long rural supply lines

Mandurah non-network options project seeking consumer-side peak management alternatives to traditional network expansion

Working with developers to explore options to reduce the peak demand impacts of new developments

Exploring the potential for microgrids and network-scaled energy storage to deliver reliability improvements that have hitherto been unattainable because of the cost of traditional options

Potentially reducing the need to build traditional poles and wires solutions

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Electricity Networks Corporation trading as Western Power

ABN 18 540 492 861

24/7 Emergency Line 13 13 51

General Enquires 13 10 87

TTY 1800 13 13 51

TIS 13 14 50

Email [email protected]

Website westernpower.com.au