André Faaij Copernicus Institute - Utrecht University Task Leader IEA Bioenergy Task 40

Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management

Development of the energy potential of the forestry sector and wood energy

in a sustainable way.

UNECE/FAO Policy Forum: The Forest Sector in the Green Economy, Geneva – Switzerland, October 15th,

2009 .

André FaaijCopernicus Institute - Utrecht University

Task Leader IEA Bioenergy Task 40


Developed perceptions…

• GHG balances not OK• Endless subsidies needed.• Land and water constrain bioenergy to

marginal levels.• Increases food prices and not good for

farmers.• Other alternatives (solar, efficiency,

hydrogen) are better and really sustainable.


After the burst of the bubble in 2008…

• Strong policy action:– Push for sustainability frameworks– Push for 2nd generation biofuels and

other advanced options– Targeting lignocellulosic resources

(residues from agriculture, forestry, marginal/degraded lands)

– Market players follow this development


Bioenergy today• 45 EJ + 10 EJ total use (global about 480 EJ)• 9 EJ + 6 EJ commercial; non-modern• ~ 8 EJ Modern; commercial:

– < 1 EJ electricity– ~ 2.5 EJ heat– ~ 1.5 EJ biofuels (bulk = ethanol; half of that

ethanol sugar cane based)• Main controversy on biofuels from annual

crops and palm oil. • Currently some 25 Mha in use for biofuels

worldwide (compared to 5,000 Mha for food)


Certification bioenergy: ongoing

initiatives • Governments: UK, NL, D, B, and more

EU nations…; EC, US, DC’s…• NGO’s & International bodies.• Market initiatives/multistakeholder:

roundtables on palm, soy, sugar and biofuels, utilities,…

IEA Task 40:Van Dam et al., 2008; Biomass & Bioenergy.

www.bioenergytrade.org


Energy & climate crisis can only be

tackled by a portfolio of all

options we have available.

Scenario C1

Scenario C2

1850 1900 1950

0

20

40

60

80

100

2000 2050 2100

1850 1900 1950

0

20

40

60

80

100

2000 2050 2100

Oil

Gas

Oil

Gas

Coal

Other

Solar

Traditional renewables

Other

Nuclear

Solar

Biomass

BiomassNuc.

Traditional renewables

Hydro

Hydro

Coal

Percent

Percent

GHG mitigationPotentials [IPCC AR4, 2007]

[IIASA]


Limitations in degraded land, protected areas and water


OverallPicture

Yes, biomass can play a significant

role in future energy supply

Dornburg et al., 2008


Perennial crops (vs. annual crops)

• Lower costs (< 2 €/GJ)• Planted for 15-25 years• Low(er) intensity

– Can restore soil carbon and structure– Suited for marginal/degraded lands– Requires less inputs (well below key threshold values)

• Wide portfolio of species & production systems– Possibilities for enhancing (bio-) diversity– Adaptable to local circumstances (water, indigenous

species)

• Earlier development stage– Large scale and diverse experience needed– Learning curve to be exploited– Improvement potential

Miscanthus x giganteus


Yields: perennials ~3x annual

Crop Biomass yield (odt/ha* yr)

Energy yield in fuel (GJ/ha*yr)

Wheat 4 - 5 ~ 50

Corn 5 – 6 ~ 60

Sugar Beet 9 – 10 ~ 110

Soy Bean 1 – 2 ~ 20

Sugar Cane 10 – 20 ~ 180

Palm Oil 10-15 ~ 160

Jathropha 5-6 ~ 60

SRC temperate climate 10 – 15 100 - 180

SRC tropical climate 15 - 30 170 - 350

Energy grasses good conditions 10 - 20 170 – 230

Perennials marginal/degraded lands 3 - 10 30 – 120


Experience curve for primary forest fuels in Sweden and Finland (1975

and 2003).

Sou

rce:

Jun

ging

er F

aaij

et a

l., 2

005


Experience curve for the average and marginal production cost of electricity

from Swedish biofuelled CHP plants from

1990-2002

Cumulative electricity production (MWh)

1 10 100 1000 10000

Ele

ctric

ity p

rodu

ctio

n co

sts

(Eur

o(20

02)/

kWh)

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.1

0.11

0.12

Average electricity production costs Marginal electricity production costs

PR = 92% R2 = 0.88

PR = 91% R2 = 0.85

1990

1991

1992 1993

1994

1995

2002

1997

1999

Sou

rce:

Jun

ging

er,

Faa

ij et

al.,

200

5


Developing Developing international international

bioenergy marketsbioenergy markets

Japan

ethanol

pellets

palm oil &

agricultural

residues

USA

Japan

W. Europe

Brazil

E. Europe

& CIS

South East

AsiaEthanol

Pellets

Palm oil & agricultural residues

Canada

Wood PelletsEthanolPalm Oil & Ag Residues

[IEA Task 40; www.bioenergytrade.org]


A future vision on global bioenergy…(2040?)

[GIRACT FFF Scenario project; Faaij, 2008]

250 Mha = 100 EJ= 5% ag land + pasture = 1/3 Brazilie


Synthetic fuels from biomass

Biomass & coal gasification to FT liquids - with gas turbine

Power

Pre-treatment:

- grinding - drying

feedstock is poplar wood

Gasification:

- air or oxygen- pressurised or atmospheric- direct/indirect

Gas cleaning:

- ‘wet’ cold or ‘dry’ hot

FT liquids

Offgas

Recycle loop

FT synthesis:

- slurry reactor or fixed bed

Gas turbine

Gas processing:

- reforming- shift

- CO2 removal

Major investments in IG-FT capacityongoing in China right now:- Reducing dependency on oil imports!- Without capture strong increase in CO2 emissions…

About 50%of carbon!


Economic performance 2nd generation biofuels s.t. & l.t.; 3

Euro/GJ feedstock

[Hamelinck & Faaij, 2006]


The IEA on biofuels…

IEA-ETP, 2008


Final Remarks

• We cannot miss out on the biobased economy for fundamental and interlinked reasons (energy, climate, soil & carbon management, rural development).

• Lignocellulosic biomass (perennials, residues) offer the excellent perspectives.

• Forest sector and (international) pellet markets offers an essential opportunity on shorter term + the market experience to build on for longer term.

• Follow the learning curve, develop (sustainable) markets and stimulate investment.

• Breakthrough of 2nd gen biofuels may take affect on the forestry sector sooner than we think and will not be driven by policy but by economics

André Faaij Copernicus Institute - Utrecht University Task Leader IEA Bioenergy Task 40

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