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![Page 1: Andean Livelihood Strategies and the Impact of Market and Climate Shocks: Risks Perceptions and Coping Mechanisms Corinne Valdivia, Elizabeth Jimenez Jere.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8e7f8b9ab0599c0484/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Andean Livelihood Strategies and Andean Livelihood Strategies and the Impact of Market and Climate the Impact of Market and Climate Shocks: Risks Perceptions and Shocks: Risks Perceptions and
Coping MechanismsCoping Mechanisms
Corinne Valdivia, Elizabeth JimenezJere Gilles, Alejandro Romero and Leonie Marks
University of Missouri MUUniversidad de la Cordillera UC
![Page 2: Andean Livelihood Strategies and the Impact of Market and Climate Shocks: Risks Perceptions and Coping Mechanisms Corinne Valdivia, Elizabeth Jimenez Jere.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8e7f8b9ab0599c0484/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Outline• Introduction - diversity and adaptation• Theoretical framework: overview &
hypothesis• The sites and data• Methods results and analysis• Conclusions
![Page 3: Andean Livelihood Strategies and the Impact of Market and Climate Shocks: Risks Perceptions and Coping Mechanisms Corinne Valdivia, Elizabeth Jimenez Jere.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8e7f8b9ab0599c0484/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Introduction
• Climate change and food security (Loeb et at, 2008; Brown and Funk, 2008, Science)
• Climate change and Andean livelihoods – trends and projections
• Livelihoods, capitals, and decisions – perceptions of risks
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Purpose
• To determine the perceptions about climate and market risks given the livelihood strategies defined by income, human capital and life cycle characteristics.
• Under objective 2, understand how risk perceptions shape livelihood strategies and decisions to include new knowledge in practices and strategies; how to communicate climate information in this context.
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Theoretical Framework • Sustainable livelihoods (Chambers and Conway;
Ellis). • Shocks impact on livelihoods in the Andes:
climate, prices, political uprising, and idiosyncratic events.
• Diversification of the economic portfolio to smooth income (Valdivia et al; Reardon et al).
• Liquidating assets, temporary migration, remittances to smooth consumption (Zimmerman and Carter).
• Risk perception rather than actual risk can influence decision making (Rockstrom et al.).
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Rural Livelihood Strategies
Conditions:• Production and
consumption interlinked• Markets are unreliable• Limited credit markets • Smoothing of
consumption affects productive assets
• Social dimensions to accessing resources relevant
Activities
Outputs Outcomes
Assets
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Coping and AdaptingEx-ante: Income Smoothing
– Diversifying: • within agriculture• selling labor • value added
– Seasonal migration– > less covariant
activities in the household portfolio
Ex-post: Consumption Smoothing– Loans– Sale of assets– Migration
Adapting:• Recovering, reducing,
avoiding shocks and stresses – Incorporating climate resilient strategies
Valdivia, 2004
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Working Hypotheses
• Income, education and life cycle determine distinct clusters of livelihood strategies
• Perceived climate risks are the most significant risks facing communities, where perceptions of risks rank higher when there are less assets to cope with shocks
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The sites and data
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Andean Climate Variability and Change
• Climate variability - inter annual variability & spatial variability
• ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) - spatial variability
• Climate trends – the past 30 years - spatial variability
• Climate Change 2030-50 and 2099, global models – Altiplano grid (Seth and Thiebault 2008)
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Ancoraimes Ancoraimes
Four Four Rural Rural CommunitiesCommunities3850 - 43003850 - 4300
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UmalaUmala
4 rural 4 rural communitiescommunities3,770 - 4,070m3,770 - 4,070m
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Regional Differences
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Income Level & Diversification: differences
Household income levels in Umala are twice the income of Ancoraimes
0500
100015002000250030003500400045005000
Ancoraimes Umala
Ann
ual I
ncom
e in
$us
Other sources ofincome
Income for independentactivities
Income from wages
Income for agriculturalactivities
Jimenez Valdivia and Romero
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Human Capital: gender differences
In both contexts, women have lower schooling than men
012345678
Ancoraimes Umala
Year
s of
sch
oolin
g
Male Female
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Natural Capital: Land Use and Size Ancoraimes and Umala
Hectareas de terreno (2005-006)
0
1
2
3
4
5
Sembradas Descanso Pastizales Alfares
Uso de la tierra
Has
Ancoraimes Umala
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Natural Capital: crop diversification
Greater crop diversification in Ancoraimes
0
10
20
30
40
50
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Number of CropsPo
rcen
tage
Ancoraimes Umala
Greater diversity of potato varieties in Umala
0
10
20
30
40
1 2 3 4 5 6 8 9 11
Number of varieties
Porcen
tage
Ancoraimes Umala
Dread of pests in disease high Dread of frosts, floods, drought differentiated by region
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Livestock Assets
Tenencia de ganado
05
10152025303540
Ove
jacr
iolla
Ove
jam
ejor
ada
Vacu
nocr
iollo
Vacu
nom
ejor
ado
Porc
ino
Auqu
énid
o
Prom
edio
Ancoraimes Umala
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Social Capital: individual’s participation within producer and community organizations
Participation in community organizations is basically the same in both sites
0
20
40
60
80
100
Producer Organizations Community Organizations
Porc
enta
ge
Ancoraimes Umala
Differences in the nature of social capital and articulation to markets
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Access to credit is limitedAcceso a crédito en los últimos 5 años
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Ancoraimes Umala
No
Si
Fuente de crédito
0%
20%40%
60%80%
100%
Ancoraimes Umala
Banco, Ongs Financieras Amigos, Familiares
Availability of contingency markets to buffer shocks varies by regioncommunities and households
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Cluster Analysis
• Variables – total income, years of schooling of head of household, age of head of household
• Three groups identified – I Active – productive stage life cycle– II Active – early stage life cycle– III Pasive (pasivos) - elderly
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UMALA
GRUPOIACTIVOS
Hogares en etapa productiva del ciclo de vida
y con altos ingresos
GRUPOIIJOVENES
Hogares jóvenes de medianos ingresos, con mayor capital
humano
GRUPOIIIPASIVOS
Hogares en etapa
descendente del ciclo de vida, con
menores ingresos y menor capital humano
ANCORAIMES
GRUPOIACTIVOS
Hogares en etapa productiva del ciclo de vida
y con altos ingresos
GRUPOIIJOVENES
Hogares jóvenes de medianos ingresos, con mayor capital
humano
GRUPOIIIPASIVOS
Hogares en etapa
descendente del ciclo de vida, con
menores ingresos y menor capital humano
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Capitals Differences Among Groups
I II III Sig I II III Sig
Total household income 32110 17531.2 12226 * 15056 7141 5676 *Sheep 41.3 24.9 22.9 * 24.5 15.6 19Cattle 8.2 7 5.1 * 3.8 2.5 2.8Improved Cattle 50.5 23.9 29.2 *Cash income 6667.6 2334 2673 * 6760 2977 2263.8Remittances 745.6 251.11 580.6 * 847.5 1162.86 642.38
Education HH 6.5 8.5 3.6 * 7.6 6.8 3.8 *Age HH 53 32.9 62.4 * 52.5 35 59 *
Alfalfa Ha 2.3 1.3 1.4 * 0.1 0.1 0.1Planted Ha 5.2 3 2.2 * 0.8 0.5 0.5Crops planted # 3 2.8 2.5 * 6 4.8 4.6 *Varieties of potatoes 4.1 3.8 3.4 * 2.4 2.2 1.9
Human Capital :
Natural Capital :
Umala Ancoraimes
Financial Capital :
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Dealing with climate events
I II III Sig I II III Sig
Sell sheep and cattle 0,02 0,13 0,04 0,88 0,74 0,76Use savings 0,69 0,52 0,51 0,75 0,62 0,60Migration 0,45 0,19 0,42 * 0,13 0,26 0,25
Obtained a loan duringthe last 5 years 0,27 0,28 0,19 0,38 0,33 0,19Loan obtained from relatives and/or friends 0,13 0,38 0,58 * 0,33 0,82 0,79
Coping strategies when crops are lost
Access to finantial services
Umala Ancoraimes
1 1 0,99Climate shocks affectedagricultural production 0,92 0,71 0,90
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Perception of risks by cluster Umala
Climate Risks (0= No risk; 5 = high risk)
Cluster Groups CC Hail Frost Drought Floods
I 3.63 4.07 4.32 4.67 4.23
II 3.79 3.83 4.41 4.76 4.28
III 3.89 4.03 4.44 4.76 4.37
Market Risks Pests
Cluster Groups Low crop prices
Low livestock prices
I 3.53 3.63 3.08
II 3.53 3.63 3.22
III 3.81 3.98 3.56
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Perception of risks Ancoraimes
Climate Risks (0= No risk; 5 = high risk)
Cluster Groups CC Hail Frost Drought Floods
I 3.75 3.8 3.75 3.63 3.88
II 4.08 3.71 3.92 3.86 3.92
III 3.9 3.71 3.9 3.70 4.08
Market Risks Crop Prices Livestock Prices
Pests
I 3.63 4.13 3. 5
II 3.85 3.95 3.95
III 3.89 3.93 3.86
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Analysis • Cluster analysis identified three groups in each region –
differences in income are significant between groups and regions
• All groups experience shocks in at least 70 percent in Umala; and 99 percent in Ancoraimes
• Greater access to alfalfa, cropping area and diversity of potato varieties in Umala, while greater diversity of crops in Ancoriames groups
• Larger amounts and significant differences in ownership of cattle sheep and camelids among groups in Umala – greater accumulation of assets
• In Ancoraimes: Remittances play a larger role in total income; sale of livestock a strategy to cope with shocks
• In Umala: Savings and migration are the major strategies in coping
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Conclusions • The perceptions of risks varied by region –
consistent with the observed climate trends of the last 30 years in North and Central Altiplano
• Land fragmentation (low access to land) and shocks lead to migration
• Coping with shocks –> lack of contingency markets
• Depletion of assets when high degree of covariant shocks
• (See also poster by Rees)
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Thank you
Questions