Anchor capital

42

Transcript of Anchor capital

Page 1: Anchor capital
Page 2: Anchor capital

“The Anchor Group continued to grow its assets under advice and

management in the first quarter of 2016 in tough market conditions. The

total assets at 31 March 2016 were R44.4 billion. Assets under

management were up R10.1 billion (+45%) for the quarter, with just over

R8 billion coming from the acquisition of 47.5% of Capricorn Fund

Managers…The long term strategy of Anchor is to become a major player

in South African asset management, with an increasing focus on offshore

investment. This will be achieved by both organic and acquisitive growth.”

“The first quarter of 2016 saw a significant reversal in the key drivers of

equity market performance globally, with the theme flowing over to South

African equities. In 2015, the stocks which led the market were growth-

oriented, generally more highly rated companies of “quality.”... The first

quarter of 2016 saw a dramatic rotation away from “growth” stocks toward

beaten-down “value” stocks. Importantly, it is worth highlighting that much

of this “value” is not necessarily reflected in very low earnings multiples, but

rather the fact that many of these sectors and companies’ share prices

have underperformed due to poor fundamentals.”

Peter Armitage

CEO

Sean Ashton

CIO

Page 3: Anchor capital

Top investment

team and

process

Businesses built

to deal with

financial advisors

Access to fund

managers and

top

management

Entrepreneurial

result-driven

approach

Top performing

asset manager

Value-based,

transparent fee

model

Access to special

opportunities

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Page 4: Anchor capital

Anchor is structurally equivalent to a large asset

manager:

• Size, skill and quality of team

• Governance and oversight

• Flagship fund has a 3 year track record

(Anchor BCI Equity Fund)

BUT

can deliver performance normally associated with a

boutique manager 100.00

110.00

120.00

130.00

140.00

150.00

160.00

170.00

180.00

190.00

200.00

210.00

BENCHMARK

FUND

THE ANCHOR BCI EQUITY FUNDPERFORMANCE SINCE INCEPTION

SOURCE: Morningstar; Anchor Capital

Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance.

Page 5: Anchor capital

>R40 BN

TOP EQUITY

PERFORMANCE

OVER 3 YEARS

20 ANALYSTS 14 CA’S

12 CFA’S

120 STAFF

Page 6: Anchor capital

Q1

Growth

(%)

Q1

Growth

(R’bn)

End Mar

2016

(R’bn)

End Dec

2015

(R’bn)

End Dec

2014

(R’bn)

Assets Under Management 45% 10.1 32.5 22.5 7.3

Assets Under Advice 2% 0.2 11.9 11.6 1.3

Total 30% 10.3 44.4 34.1 8.6

Assets Under Advice & Management – 1Q16

• Listed September 2014

• Offices in

Johannesburg Durban

Pretoria London

Cape Town Mauritius

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Global strategy

(London)

Local asset

allocation

Analysts give

bottom-up view

Model portfolio

created

Personalised to

your fund

Fund manager

operates fund

• Global macro strategy, supplemented by bottom up research

• Collective input but single decision making responsibility - no management by committee

• Nimble and able to reposition quickly

Page 9: Anchor capital

CIO & Fund Manager

Sean Ashton leads a team of over 20

investment professionals

A dynamic investment process led by high quality,

experienced investment professionals

• Fully fledged team across all asset classes

• Fund managers take ultimate responsibility, with

input from the team

• Weekly formal investment process meetings

• Informal daily investment meetings

• Close proximity working environment facilitating

communication and decision making

Page 10: Anchor capital

Nolan WapenaarHead: Fixed Interest

Peter ArmitageBalanced

Glen BakerHead: Alternatives

David GibbOffshore

Nick DennisOffshore

Peter LittleOffshore

Sean AshtonCIO and manger of the

Anchor BCI Equity Fund

A full range of investment funds across asset classes

and geographies

Local Offshore

Unitised

• Equity funds

• Income funds

• Regulation 28 fund

• Flexible funds

• Property funds

• Feeder funds

Unitised

• Equity funds

• Income funds

• Flexible funds

Segregated mandates

• Equity

• Balanced

• Yield

• Property

Segregated mandates

• Equity

• Balanced

• Yield

Page 11: Anchor capital

We’re valuation-centric but are happy to

pay premium ratings for premium

businesses - where growth outlook,

return metrics and cash flows warrant

this

…and these concepts cannot

be separated

…and a lack thereof deserves a

discount

Entrepreneurial teams are serial

value creators and this often cannot

be captured easily in a

spreadsheet, e.g. Discovery

Concentrated index leads to investments

in mostly poor quality companies rather

than good businesses experiencing

temporary trouble

We don’t put ourselves in one

philosophical box…we’re

neither value or growth

specific investors

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133-Jun-16 Anchor Capital

Systematic

Risk

Specific

Risk

Analytics Path

- First step for Scenario

and Sensitivity

analysis

- Important piece for a

macro-based asset

allocation framework

- Crucial starting point

for a risk analysis/

monitoring tool Analysis will focus on the

behavior SA Bonds and

Currency under defined

Global scenarios

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• The US is growing at a diminishing

rate

• However, since Q4 2015, inflation has

been slowly rising

• Major risk is having the Fed rapidly

rising interest rates to curb inflation in

a no growth environment

Anchor Capital 153-Jun-16

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16

USA Quarterly GDP

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

USA InflationData Source: Thomson Reuters

Inflation Build-up

Data Source: Thomson Reuters

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GDP = C + I + G + Net Exports

- C: Private Consumption

- I : Private Investments

- G: Government Expenditure

Private investment has been relatively flat the beginning of 2015 while Government expenditure has been flat for the period

Biggest drag to USA GDP has been the fall in private consumption and net exports

163-Jun-16 Anchor Capital

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16

USA YoY Private Consumption Data Source: Thomson Reuters

2.3E+12

2.4E+12

2.5E+12

2.6E+12

2.7E+12

2.8E+12

2.9E+12

3E+12

USA Private Investment and Government ConsumptionFor the past 3-years

Government Expanditure Private Investments

Data Source: Thomson Reuters

-560

-540

-520

-500

-480

-460

-440

-420

USA Net EXPORTSData Source: Thomson Reuters

Still low

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The US Economy: Labor Market

US labor markets has tightened significantly

Falling unemployment, low energy prices and rising hourly wages will increase consumer purchasing power

Increasing wage costs are not showing up yet in overall inflation because of the countervailing impact of oil prices and import prices

Thus, lower oil prices make it difficult to judge when wage pressures will become inflationary

This adds to the upside inflation risk on the US economy

Anchor Capital 173-Jun-16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

9.8

10

10.2

10.4

10.6

10.8

Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15

US Unemployment Rate vs Real Hourly Wages

Real Hourly Wages US Unemployment Rate

Data Source: Thomson Reuters

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1US Employment Cost Index

Data Source: Thomson Reuters

Page 18: Anchor capital

Decline in oil prices has exacerbated deflationary pressures in the US

Core CPI has been flat with a small up tick towards the end of 2015

The dollar appreciation relative to its trading partners has lowered import costs

Competitive pressure on US domestic firms to reduce prices

This further dampens the headline inflation

Anchor Capital 183-Jun-16

0

50

100

150

-4

-2

0

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6

Ma

r-0

6

Se

p-0

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Ma

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p-0

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Se

p-1

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Effect of oil prices on US Inflation

Crude Oil Spot US Headline Inflation US Core Inflation

Data Source: Thomson Reuters

90

110

130

150

170

0

50

100

150

Fe

b-0

6

Au

g-0

6

Fe

b-0

7

Au

g-0

7

Fe

b-0

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Au

g-0

8

Fe

b-0

9

Au

g-0

9

Fe

b-1

0

Au

g-1

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Fe

b-1

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Au

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1

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Fe

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Au

g-1

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Fe

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b-1

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Au

g-1

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Fe

b-1

6

Impact of Oil Prices on US imports and TWI

Crude Spot US Trade Weighted Currency Index US Import Prices

Data Source: Thomson Reuters

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Fe

b-0

6

Au

g-0

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Fe

b-0

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Au

g-0

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g-0

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b-0

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Au

g-0

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Au

g-1

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b-1

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Au

g-1

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Fe

b-1

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Au

g-1

5

US Import Price Index excluding FuelData Source: Thomson Reuters

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The Euro Zone Economy: GDP Components

Euro Zone GDP components have all been on a gradual rise

This implies that the observed GDP growth as been a result of a combined positive contribution of the broad economic components

This provides a strength signal for the general economy

Anchor Capital 203-Jun-16

4.95E+11

5E+11

5.05E+11

5.1E+11

5.15E+11

5.2E+11

5.25E+11

Euro Zone Government Expanditure

Data Source: Thomson Reuters

6E+11

6.1E+11

6.2E+11

6.3E+11

6.4E+11

6.5E+11

6.6E+11

6.7E+11

Euro Zone InvestmentsData Source: Thomson Reuters

1260

1280

1300

1320

1340

1360

1380

Euro Zone Private ConsumptionData Source: Thomson Reuters

Page 21: Anchor capital

Analysis from the Philips Curve

- Relates an economies inflation to its output gap

- At full employment, the model assumes stable inflation

- Disequilibrium generates inflationary or disinflationary pressures

Euro area is still recovering from the 2008/2009 recessionary shock

Still in the process of reducing the output gap created in the 2008/2009

Degree of underutilization might still be higher relative to pre-recession period

This provides some insight on the current “dialectical” theme that underpins the Euro area

Anchor Capital 213-Jun-16

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

YoY Euro Zone Labor CostsData Source: Thomson Reuters

7

8

9

10

11

12

Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16

Euro Zone UnemploymentData Source: Thomson Reuters

Page 22: Anchor capital

Euro area has been experiencing strong disinflationary pressures up to 2014

Lack of demand has not been the ultimate cause of disinflation

Both low demand and low inflation are joint manifestation of an underlying disequilibrium in asset markets leading to the observed disinflation

Anchor Capital 223-Jun-16

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Euro Zone InflationData Source: Thomson Reuters

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16

Euro Zone Services InflationData Source: Thomson Reuters

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2

Energy

Processed food, alcoho & tobacco

Non-energy industrial goods

Unprocessed food

Services

Contribution to the Euro Zone annual inflation (%)

Feb MarchData Source: Thomson Reuters

Disinflation Post

disinflationary

cycle

Page 23: Anchor capital
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The Chinese Economy: GDP

China growth rate has been on a downwards spiral since late 2012

The export led capital investment growth model that underpins Chinese economy came under immense pressure due to decline in exports as a percentage of GDP

The strengthening of the Yuan that was fueled by the dollar strength since 2012 left its export industry under pressure

Anchor Capital 243-Jun-16

6

6.5

7

7.5

8

8.5

Ma

r-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Ju

l-12

Se

p-1

2

No

v-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Ma

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-13

Se

p-1

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No

v-1

3

Ja

n-1

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Ma

r-1

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Ma

y-1

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Ju

l-14

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p-1

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No

v-1

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Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-1

5

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-15

Se

p-1

5

No

v-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

China GDP Y/YData Source: Thomson Reuters

20

22

24

26

28

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2012

Q1

2013

Q2

2013

Q3

2013

Q4

2013

Q1

2014

Q2

2014

Q3

2014

Q4

2014

Q1

2015

Q2

2015

Q3

2015

Q4

2015

Q1

2016

Q2

2016

China exports (%GDP)Data Source: Thomson Reuters

Cyclicality?

456789

60

80

100

120

Yuan/Dollar vs US Trade Weighted Dollar

USA Trade Weighted Index Yuen/USDData Source: Thomson Reuters

Yuan

Disparity

Page 25: Anchor capital

The Chinese Economy: A Glance at GDP Components

We currently have no conviction that China’s growth model has been gravitating towards consumption nor services driven

China growth will still depend on its exports particularly in response to global infrastructure development which is showing positive momentum

Anchor Capital 253-Jun-16

6.5

7

7.5

8

8.5

9

Q1

2013

Q2

2013

Q3

2013

Q4

2013

Q1

2014

Q2

2014

Q3

2014

Q4

2014

Q1

2015

Q2

2015

Q3

2015

Q4

2015

Q1

2016

Q2

2016

China Private Consumption (%GDP)Data Source: Thomson Reuters

46

48

50

52

54

56

China Services SectorData Source: Thomson Reuters

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

Fe

b-1

3

Ap

r-1

3

Ju

n-1

3

Au

g-1

3

Oc

t-1

3

De

c-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Ap

r-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Oc

t-1

4

De

c-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

De

c-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

iShare Global Infrastructure ETF

Data Source: Thomson Reuters

False Signals!Potential

Anchor

Page 26: Anchor capital

The Chinese Economy: Risk Factors

Dialectical phenomenon driven by a theme of “Appearance vs Reality”

- China’s foreign reserves have fell drastically, but to what level will this start to raise true alarm bells

- What are Chinese actual reserves together with their dollar assets

Banks - A ticking bomb that might not explode

- Loan creation by banks has been rising at the back on an increasing number on non-performing loans

- The banking sector credit risk has been increasing significantly since 2013

Major risk is that under current conditions of concentrated risk, it would take one default to drive the economy into a downwards spiral

Anchor Capital 263-Jun-16

2.8E+12

3E+12

3.2E+12

3.4E+12

3.6E+12

3.8E+12

4E+12

4.2E+12

China Foreign ReservesData Source: Thomson Reuters

00.20.40.60.8

11.2

China Commercial Bank Credit Risk Indicator

Data Source: Thomson Reuters

0

5E+12

1E+13

1.5E+13

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

China Non-Performing Loans and New Loan Issues

China's Non-performing Loans China's New Loan Growth

Data Source: Thomson Reuters

Page 27: Anchor capital
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Growth vs Real Exchange Rate

• Growth in SA has deterioratedsignificantly

• The decline rate has increased between2014 to 2016

• Growth for 2016 was revised down from1.3 to 0.7

• Gross National income has been on adecreasing trend since 2012

3-Jun-16 Anchor Capital 28

0

1

2

3

4

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

SA GDP Growth Rate Data Source: Thomson Reuters

200

2200

4200

6200

8200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Gross National IncomeData Source: Thomson Reuters

55

70

85

100

SA Real Effective Exchange Rate

Data Source: Thomson Reuters

Page 29: Anchor capital

Growing Sectors as a % of GDP

• Finance, Real Estate and Bus services has been the moststable growth sector over the past

• Wholesale, retail and motor trade has shown an upwardcyclical growth trend

• General government has recently started ticking upwardsafter a gradual decline from 1993 to 2009

• Overall, these sectors have been an anchor for SA growthin recent years

Anchor Capital 293-Jun-16

0

5

10

15

20

25

Ma

y-9

3

Ma

y-9

4

Ma

y-9

5

Ma

y-9

6

Ma

y-9

7

Ma

y-9

8

Ma

y-9

9

Ma

y-0

0

Ma

y-0

1

Ma

y-0

2

Ma

y-0

3

Ma

y-0

4

Ma

y-0

5

Ma

y-0

6

Ma

y-0

7

Ma

y-0

8

Ma

y-0

9

Ma

y-1

0

Ma

y-1

1

Ma

y-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

Ma

y-1

4

Ma

y-1

5

GENERAL GOVERNMENT SERVICES

Data Source: Thomson Reuters

0

5

10

15

20

25

Ma

y-9

3

Ma

y-9

4

Ma

y-9

5

Ma

y-9

6

Ma

y-9

7

Ma

y-9

8

Ma

y-9

9

Ma

y-0

0

Ma

y-0

1

Ma

y-0

2

Ma

y-0

3

Ma

y-0

4

Ma

y-0

5

Ma

y-0

6

Ma

y-0

7

Ma

y-0

8

Ma

y-0

9

Ma

y-1

0

Ma

y-1

1

Ma

y-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

Ma

y-1

4

Ma

y-1

5

FINANCE,REAL ESTATE & BUS.SERVICES

Data Source: Thomson Reuters

1212.5

1313.5

1414.5

1515.5

Ma

y-9

3

Ma

y-9

4

Ma

y-9

5

Ma

y-9

6

Ma

y-9

7

Ma

y-9

8

Ma

y-9

9

Ma

y-0

0

Ma

y-0

1

Ma

y-0

2

Ma

y-0

3

Ma

y-0

4

Ma

y-0

5

Ma

y-0

6

Ma

y-0

7

Ma

y-0

8

Ma

y-0

9

Ma

y-1

0

Ma

y-1

1

Ma

y-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

Ma

y-1

4

Ma

y-1

5

WHOLESALE, RETAIL & MOTOR TRADE

Data Source: Thomson Reuters

Page 30: Anchor capital

Foreign Flows

• Foreigners were net buyers of SA

bonds during 2016

• Levels of net purchases for Jan

2016 look similar to those

observed in Jan 2015

• Foreign net purchases appears

to have been cyclical over the

past 4 years

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

Net Purchases of SA Bonds by Foreigners

Purchases Sales

Data Source: Thomson Reuters

-40000

40008000

120001600020000

Fe

b-0

9

Au

g-0

9

Fe

b-1

0

Au

g-1

0

Fe

b-1

1

Au

g-1

1

Fe

b-1

2

Au

g-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Au

g-1

3

Fe

b-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Fe

b-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Fe

b-1

6

Cumulative Net Purchases of SA Bonds by Foreigners

Data Source: Thomson Reuters

Anchor Capital 303-Jun-16

Page 31: Anchor capital

Fundamental Analysis: Relative to other EM Currencies

• The Rand remains one of the top

worst performing currency relative

to the dollar on our selected EM

currencies

• The rand has improved from

being the worst performing

currency last month to being the

second worst performer

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

INDONESIAN_RUPIAH

NORWEGIAN KRONER

Indian_Rpees

TURKISH_LIRA

THAI BAHT

PERUVIAN_NUEVO

CHILEAN_PESO

BRAZILIAN_REAL

MEXICAN_PESO

RUSSIAN_ROUBLE

SA_ZAR

ARGENTINE_PESOS

Annual Depreciation of selected EM Currencies

Data Source: Thomson Reuters

3-Jun-16 Anchor Capital 31

Page 32: Anchor capital

Asset Allocation

Implications

Page 33: Anchor capital

What have we seen?

• Heightened market uncertainty

• Unconventional monetary policies assumed by major centralbanks which have altered the investment landscape

• Since Q2 2014 5 central banks have embarked on negativerates (Denmark, Euro Area, Japan, Sweden andSwitzerland)

• In Q1 2016, 14 central banks cut their interest rate

• Negative interest rates reduces the opportunity cost of holdinggold

• Given negative interest rates and increasing marketuncertainty, demand for gold increases

• More importantly, falling and negative rates are generallylinked to high gold prices, yet, rising rates are not necessarylinked to low gold prices

Anchor Capital 333-Jun-16

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3m 1y 2y 3y 5y 10y 30y

Nominal Yield Curves of various Advanced Economies

USA UK France

Germany Japan Switzerland

Data Source: Thomson Reuters

Page 34: Anchor capital

Yield Curve Movements

• Yield Curves and Interest Ratespushing further into negative territory

• Gold Price Implications

• Emerging Market implications

• Stabilization of oil price implications

Anchor Capital 343-Jun-16

-1

0

1

2

3m 1y 2y 3y 5y 10y 30y

Germany Yield Curve movement since 2012

2012 2014 2016

Data Source: Thomson Reuters

-1

0

1

2

3m 1y 2y 3y 5y 10y 30y

Japan Yield Curve movement since 2013

2013 2014 2015 2016

Data Source: Thomson Reuters

Page 35: Anchor capital

Fundamental Bond vs Actual SA Bond

• Our Fundamental model suggest that current

bond yields are over valued

• Spot valuation from the fundamental model

values SA 10-year yields at 10.06% while

actual yields are at 9.50%

• The fundamental valuation model has largely

been driven by rising credit spreads since

Sep 2015

0

3

6

9

12

15

Oc

t-0

8

Fe

b-0

9

Ju

n-0

9

Oc

t-0

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Fe

b-1

0

Ju

n-1

0

Oc

t-1

0

Fe

b-1

1

Ju

n-1

1

Oc

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1

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Ju

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6

SA 10yr Fundamental Bond

US 10yr Bond SA Sovereign Spread Inflation Differential SA 10yr Fair Value

Data

Data Source: Thomson Reuters

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16

SA_10yr vs Fundamental 10yr

SA 10yr Fair Value Actual SA_10yr Implied RP

Model Spot : 10.06

Data Source: Thomson Reuters

Anchor Capital 353-Jun-16

Page 36: Anchor capital

Z-Score Bond Valuation

• SA Bonds have change

direction and are becoming

more attractive

• The 10yr bond appears to be

have moved more than the 5-

year bond

Anchor Capital 363-Jun-16

-3.5

-2.0

-0.5

1.0

2.5

4.0

5.5SA_5yr Z-Score

Cheap

Rich

Data Source: Thomson Reuters

-3.5

-2.0

-0.5

1.0

2.5

4.0

5.5SA_10yr Z-Score

Rich

Cheap

Data Source: Thomson Reuters

Page 37: Anchor capital

Rate Hiking Probabilities

• SA FRA’s are pricing in a strong

probability of a hike in July, possibly

more than 25bp

• The US FRA’s on the other hand are

currently pricing in a 70% probability of a

hike in the June meeting

Anchor Capital 373-Jun-16

0

20

40

60

80

100

Pro

ba

bility

of R

ate

Hik

es

Probabilities of Rate Hikes at MPC MeetingsImplied by 3 month FRA's

1st Hike 2nd Hike 3rd Hike 4th HikeData Source: Thomson Reuters

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jun-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Dec-16

Probabilities of Rate Hikes at FOMC MeetingsImplied by US 3M FRA's

1st Hike 2nd Hike Data Source: Thomson Reuters

Page 38: Anchor capital

Fixed Income Attractiveness Increasing

Anchor Capital 383-Jun-16

History never repeats . . . but it rhymes

Page 39: Anchor capital

Anchor Income

Funds

Page 40: Anchor capital

Anchor Capital 403-Jun-16

Page 41: Anchor capital
Page 42: Anchor capital

© 2009-2015 Anchor Capital (Pty) Ltd. | An authorised Financial Services Provider Reg No # 2009/002925/07 | FSP No # 39834

© 2009-2015 Anchor Capital (Pty) Ltd. | An authorised Financial Services Provider Reg No

# 2009/002925/07 | FSP No # 39834

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