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Presented by:Jyoti SharmaKshipra Joshi
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Meaning
Methods
Quantitative tech. meaning
Approaches of quant. Tech. Trend analysis
Example
Work study tech.
Example
Advantages
Disadvantages
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Human resource forecasting is the process
of estimating the future quantity and
quality required.
It depends on the scale of operations of
the organization over that period of time.
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HR Forecasting Methods
Quantitative Methods
Qualitative Methods
Forecasting Methods
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These are statistical and operation research or
programming techniques which helps in
decision making process specially concerning
business and industry. Quantitative approaches utilize mathematical
procedures to predict requirements.
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[a]. Forecasts based on historical data
Naive methods
Moving average
Work study techniques
Trend analysis
[b]. Associative (causal) forecasts
Regression Analysis
Venture technique
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Forecasts employment requirements on the basis of some organizational index and is one
of the most commonly used approaches for
projecting HR demand.
It involves the following steps:
1. Select an appropriate business factor. This
should be the best available predictor of
human resources needs.
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2. Plot a historical trend of the business factor
in relation to number of employees
3. Compare the productivity ratio for at least
the past five years
4. Calculate human resources demand bydividing the business factor by the
productivity ratio.
5. Finally, project human resources demand outto the target year.
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Example of Trend Analysis of HR
Demand
2001 $2,351 14.33 164
2002 $2,613 11.12 235
2003 $2,935 8.34 352
2004 $3,306 10.02 330
2005 $3,613 11.12 325
2006 $3,748 11.12 337
2007 $3,880 12.52 310
2008* $4,095 12.52 327
2009* $4,283 12.52 342
2010* $4,446 12.52 355
BUSINESS LABOR = HUMAN RESOURCES
FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY DEMANDYEAR (SALES IN THOUSANDS) (SALES/EMPLOYEE) (NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES)
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Work-Study Technique
Work-study techniques can be used when it is possible to apply work measurement to calculatethe length of operations and the amount of labor required.
The budgets of productive hours per unit of output are then multiplied by the planned volumeof units to be produced to give the total number of planned hours for the period.
This is then divided by the number of actualworking hours for an individual operator to showthe number of operators required.
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No. of operators =
(planned std. hrs
for next year × per unit)
productive hrs per man
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Planned output for next year= 20000 units
Std. hrs. per unit = 5
Productive hrs per man = 2000
Then
no. of operators requires = 50
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•Simplicity.
•Data easily available.
•Easily explained to managers.
•Easily prepared by HR planners.
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•Mathematical complexity.
•Requires large sample sizes.
•Relies on past data.
•May not be accurate in individual cases.
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