Analyzing Trends in Science & Technology Innovation

Ben Shneiderman, Ping Wang, Yan Qu & Cody Dunne ben@cs.umd.edu, {pwang, yanqu, cdunne}@umd.edu

University of MarylandCollege Park, MD 20742

The STICK Project

• NSF SciSIP Program - Science of Science & Innovation Policy

• Goal: Scientific approach to science policy

• The STICK Project - Science & Technology Innovation Concept Knowledge-base

• Goal: Monitoring, Understanding, and Advancing the (R)Evolution of Science & Technology Innovations

http://terpconnect.umd.edu/~pwang/STICK/

The STICK Project

• Long-term objectives• Database of IT, biotech & nanotech innovations• Visual analytic tools for monitoring & sensemaking• Theories of innovation trajectories

• Near-term objectives• Ontology for innovations & people• Search & cleaning tools• Case studies

• Cloud computing• Tree visualizations: treemaps, cone trees & hyperbolic trees

Early Work: Fashions in IT Innovations

BPR

ERP

KM

Data Warehouse

Groupware

CRM

ASP

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

Num

ber

of a

rtic

les

abou

t IT

inno

vatio

ns

Business Process Reengineering (BPR) Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP)Knowledge Management (KM) Data WarehouseGroupware Customer Relationship Management (CRM)Application Service Provider (ASP)

Number of Articles about IT or IT-enabled Innovations Indexed in ProQuest ABI/Inform® Database

Innovation Trajectories: Web Services

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Nu

mb

er o

f P

ub

licat

ion

s

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Inve

stm

ent/

Sal

es (

in m

illio

ns

of

$)

Web Services Publications Web Services R&D Investment Web Serivces Application Sales

Publications

R&D Investment

Sales

Sources: LexisNexis for publications; Gartner for R&D investment; IDC for Application Sales

STICK: Ontology Design

STICK: Ontology Design: Time

Time

Case Study: Cloud computing

Case Study: Tree Visualizations

Problem: Traditional 2D node-link diagrams become too large

Solutions: Treemaps: Nested Rectangles Cone Trees: 3D Interactive Animations Hyperbolic Trees: Focus + Context

Measures: Papers, articles, patents, citations,… Press releases, blog posts, tweets,… Users, downloads, sales,…

Treemap: Nested Rectangles

www.cs.umd.edu/hcil/treemap/

(Shneiderman, ACM Trans. on Graphics, 1992; Johnson & Shneiderman, IEEE 1991)

Smartmoney.com MarketMap: Steep fall Feb 27, 2007, with one exception

smartmoney.com/marketmap

newsmap.jp

Treemap: Newsmap (Marcos Weskamp)

www.hivegroup.com

Treemap: Supply Chain

www.spotfire.com

Treemap: Spotfire Bond Portfolio Analysis

Treemap: NY Times – Car&Truck Sales

www.cs.umd.edu/hcil/treemap/

Cone tree: 3D Interactive Animations

Interactive 3D animated user interfaces

(Robertson, Card & Mackinlay, ACM CHI 1991 & CACM 1993)

Hyperbolic Trees: Focus & Context

(Lamping & Rao, ACM UIST1994 & CHI 1995)

Case Study: Tree Visualization Impact

TM=TreemapsCT=Cone TreesHT=Hyperbolic Trees

Tra

de P

ress

A

rtic

les

Aca

dem

ic

Pap

ers

Pate

nts

Case Study: Tree Visualization Citations

TM=TreemapsCT=Cone TreesHT=Hyperbolic Trees

Aca

dem

ic

Pap

ers

Pate

nts

Take Away Messages

Thanks to: National Science Foundation grant SBE-0915645 and Grad student Puneet Sharma

terpconnect.umd.edu/~pwang/STICK/

• Studying innovation trends will be accelerated by • Appropriate ontologies

• Better search & data cleaning tools

• Causal theories

• Multiple measures & determinants of success Guidance to innovators, policy analysts, venture capitalists & research managers

STICK Framework

http://terpconnect.umd.edu/~pwang/STICK/

Innovation Knowledgebase Innovation concepts and material; persons and organizations in

the innovation community; Relationships; Descriptions

Analytic and Visualization Tools Network of innovation, network of innovation

communities, trends, relationships over spatial and temporal dimensions

Multiple Data Sources

Academic Publications PopIT; Google Scholar

Trade Publications PopIT; Ebsco

Corporate Communications PopIT; Factiva

Grassroots PopIT; Wikipedia; Google Groups; Slashdot

Government Support STAR

Patents STAR

STICK

SciSIP community

Innovation Communities (Scientists; Engineers; Policy Makers Vendors; Journalists; Prospective Adopters, etc.)

1

2

3