Analyst forecasts, firm asymmetric information and audit ... · Analyst forecasts, firm asymmetric...
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Analyst forecasts, firm asymmetric information and audit quality
Chee Cheong* and Ralf Zurbruegg
University of Adelaide Business School
Abstract
This paper examines the role that audit quality has on the type of information analysts impound
onto stock prices across a sample of developed and emerging markets. Specifically, we
investigate the amount of firm-specific versus market-wide information analysts reveal by
analyzing stock return synchronicity. We find that even under a similar disclosure regime, if the
enforcement of the accounting standards is weak then less firm-level information reaches the
market. Supporting this, we also find information asymmetries between the firm and the market
is heightened when the audit regime is weak.
Keywords: financial analysts, information asymmetry, audit quality, emerging markets
JEL Classification: G14
The authors are grateful for the feedback and guidance provided by Ferdinand A. Gul,
Vernon J. Richardson, Keshab Shrestha, participants at both the 2015 JCAE conference and
seminar at Monash University, Malaysia. All errors, however, remain solely that of the authors.
* Corresponding Author. Email: [email protected], Tel: +61 8 8313 0356,
University of Adelaide Business School, University of Adelaide, SA 5005, AUSTRALIA
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1. Introduction
In this paper we examine how important a country’s propensity to comply with financial
auditing and reporting standards affects the type of information analysts impound into stock
prices. We achieve this by first endogenously controlling for differences in disclosure rules
across markets and then look at the impact analysts have on stock return synchronicity. In
particular, we examine how the above relationship is moderated for firms that have a high level
of asymmetric information. A good audit environment should limit asymmetric information
problems. However, if the enforcement standards are weak then the costs to analysts of extracting
firm-specific information will be high, limiting the type of information that is revealed to the
market.
From both a theoretical and empirical perspective, there is evidence to suggest that the
information content that is incorporated into stock prices is a function of a country’s institutional
features. Morck, Yeung and Yu (2000) argue that weaker property rights discourage informed
trading and therefore limit the amount of firm-specific information being produced. Supporting
this argument, Chan and Hameed (2006) provide similar findings for a sample of emerging
markets, but also demonstrate that the impact of analysts following a stock leads to increased
stock return synchronicity, implying they are impounding market-wide information into stock
prices. Congruent with Morck et al. (2000), they argue that in countries with low disclosure
requirements and weak enforcement of them, analysts are more likely to focus on producing
market-wide information as the costs of collecting firm-specific information are too high.
One drawback from the earlier work of Morck et al. (2000) and Chan and Hameed (2006)
is that they are not able to separate the impact of disclosure requirements from the actual
compliance regime within the market. For example, Morck et al. (2000) find no evidence that the
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development of a country’s accounting standards has an impact on stock return synchronicity.
This may, in part, be a result of their inability to separate good accounting standards from the
actual compliance with them. It therefore remains an open, empirical question of how important
the enforcement regime is, separate to the stated reporting standards, in influencing the type of
information that analysts impound into stock prices. In this paper we explicitly examine this
issue.
On a firm level, information asymmetries arising from the characteristics of a company are
also likely to impact the information analysts try to collect. We consider two firm characteristics
that may lead to increased information asymmetries that are also particularly related to the quality
of the accounting compliance regime within a country. The first is the proportion of intangible
assets a firm has. Barth, Kasnik and McNichols (2001) highlight the fact that firms with
substantial, intangible assets are more likely to have a greater information asymmetry between
managers and investors, leading to more uncertainty on the fundamental value of the firm. This
may lead to the costs of analysts acquiring firm-specific information for these companies to
change. Additionally, how intangibles are reported is directly related to the accounting and audit
quality environment. Accounting for intangibles is a complex matter and more often involves a
substantial amount of managers’ professional judgement in recognizing and estimating intangible
assets. For example, under IFRS goodwill undergoes an annual impairment test, which requires
managers to make a number of assumptions to determine impairment. In the absence of a strong
audit environment, it is therefore possible for managers to exercise such discretion
opportunistically by withholding significant private information, thereby leading to higher
information asymmetries between managers and investors.
The second measure we examine is the ownership structure of the company. Research
dating back to Morck, Shleifer, Vishny (1988) and Jiambalvo, Rajgopal and Venkatachalam
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(2002) note that firms with differing levels of strategic investors has an impact on the amount of
firm-specific information that is released to the market. With good accounting standards, private
information advantages such as this should be reduced. However, if the enforcement and
compliance regime is weak then regardless of the accounting standards, the information
asymmetry between the strategic investors and the rest of the market will remain.
In both of the above cases where firms may have a large amount of intangible assets or that
their ownership structure may lend itself to greater information asymmetries, we postulate that
the impact this will have on analysts impounding firm-specific information will be largely
dependent on how well accounting standards are enforced, separate to whether or not the state
claims to have adopted high disclosure standards.
While controlling for differences in disclosure practices, we use a sample of firms within
16 developed and emerging markets to show that the amount and type of information analysts
reveal for firms that they follow varies with the financial reporting and audit regime within the
country. In particular, we show that the financial reporting and audit regime has a strong impact
on the type of information analysts collect for firms that have greater information asymmetries. In
other words, the importance of having institutional environments that encourage compliance with
accounting standards is particularly prominent for firms where there is less information
transparency at the firm level.
Our paper contributes to the literature in several ways. First, we contribute to the theoretical
work dating back to Grossman and Stiglitz (1980) who examine the incentives analysts have to
collect private information on firms. Although studies have examined the impact intangible assets
(Barth et al., 2001 and Matolcsy and Wyatt, 2006) and strategic investors (Moyer, Chatfield and
Sisneros, 1989; Ball, Kothari and Robin, 2000) have on analyst coverage, the influence it has on
the type of information analysts collect, based on different compliance regimes, has not been
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investigated. In this paper we examine the impact these inter-related factors have on analysts’
ability to impound useful information into stock prices.
Also, by using a set of markets that have adopted the same disclosure rules by focusing on
countries that have mandatory adoption of IFRS, we are able to highlight the importance of the
compliance and enforcement regime is in influencing the type of information analysts impound
into stocks. Previous work examining return synchronicity across international markets have not
been able to explicitly separate the effects of differing disclosure rules from the type of
enforcement regime (Morck, et al., 2000 and Chan and Hameed, 2006). Additionally, and despite
our paper not explicitly dealing with IFRS issues, we do contribute to the growing literature that
shows how the mandatory adoption of a particular disclosure regime alone, such as IFRS, does
not imply that the benefits of adoption will be uniform (see Horton, Serafeim and Serfafeim,
2013 and Byard, Li and Yu, 2011). In particular, we find that accounting compliance is, itself, a
significant indicator of how effective improved mandatory disclosures in countries will be,
insofar as it encourages analysts to seek and collect firm-specific information. Our results can
therefore partially explain why analyst forecasts are not as accurate in environments with weaker
reporting quality as we relate the empirical evidence from papers showing poorer forecast
performance for these environments to be a function of a reduced incentive for analysts to collect
firm-specific information.
The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 reviews previous work on the
impact that the information environment has on stock return synchronicity and analyst
performance, along with our hypothesis development. Section 3 discusses the data and model
development while Section 4 provides the empirical results. Finally, Section 5 summarizes our
paper with some concluding remarks.
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2. A review of the related literature and hypothesis development
Early work by Roll (1988) uses the R2 from a market model regression as an indicator of
stock return synchronicity. The higher the R2, the greater the stock is synchronous with general
market movements. In examining stocks in the U.S., Roll finds that they have low stock return
synchronicity, leading him to conclude firm-specific information must be incorporated into these
stocks. More recently, Morck et al. (2000) show that a negative relationship exists between stock
return synchronicity and the extent to which the government protects private property rights.
Using a good government index, they show that stocks in countries where the index has a low
value is associated with stocks not impounding as much firm-specific information. Their
explanation for this is that weaker property rights discourage informed arbitrage and weaken the
benefit of analysts collecting firm-level information. Supporting this finding Wurgler (2000)
shows that the efficiency of capital allocations in a country is also negatively associated with
stock return synchronicity. Furthermore, Durnev, Morck, Yeung and Zarowin (2003) show that a
positive relationship exists between a number of accounting measures of stock price
informativeness and firm-specific price variation. In other words, stock return synchronicity is
directly related to the degree firm-specific information is incorporated into stock prices.
Additionally, from a behavioral perspective, there is evidence to suggest there is a cultural
dimension to explaining stock return synchronicity differences across countries. Both Hope
(2003) and Nguyen and Troung (2013) use similar measures to capture behavioral biases and
differences in risk preferences to show its impact on analyst forecasts and return synchronicity,
respectively.
Studies have also shown analyst coverage to be a significant item that can influence the
degree of stock return synchronicity. Analysts, as information intermediaries, provide earnings
forecasts on firms and therefore should have the ability to produce firm-specific information. At
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the same time, as Piotroski and Roulstone (2004) note, they are outsiders to the company and
may, in fact, be contributing to the amount of industry-wide information that is relevant for
pricing the stock. With analysts following more than one company at a time, they have a relative
advantage in terms of exploiting intra-industry information. Supporting the latter argument, Chan
and Hameed (2006) find that stock return synchronicity rises for firms with greater analyst
coverage in emerging markets.
The above research does not, however, differentiate between a market’s information
disclosure standards relative to the enforcement of them. Chan and Hameed (2006), for example,
do not directly measure the level of information disclosure and corporate transparency across
countries, but rather just imply these factors can explain why analysts generate forecasts based on
market-wide information, as the costs of collecting firm-specific information become too high in
regimes with low quality information environments. Likewise, the earlier work by Morck, et al,
(2000) found a country’s accounting standards had little impact on the level of firm-specific
information that is impounded into the stock markets. However, this may be due to the inability
to segregate a country’s accounting standards relative to the enforcement of them.
This leads us to our first hypothesis where we focus on determining the difference that a
disclosure regime has on analysts impounding information, as opposed to the compliance regime.
Simply put:
H1: While controlling for differences in disclosure rules, regimes that encourage quality
auditing and financial reporting will motivate analysts to impound more firm-specific
information.
We postulate that analysts will only invest time in collecting firm-specific information if
some degree of reliability can be placed on a firm’s financial reports. Otherwise, an analyst may
be better off focusing on collating and relying on market-wide information to base earnings
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forecasts. Whether the stated disclosure standards are of good quality or not is immaterial if the
actual enforcement of them is weak. Supporting this line of reasoning, work by Ball (2006), Hope
(2003) and Barniv, Myring and Thomas (2005) all show that incentives for corporate disclosure
are just as important as the purported accounting standards a regime claims to follow.
In order for us to control for the level of disclosure rules across countries, we exploit the
fact that since 2008, 16 markets have adopted mandatory IFRS reporting. Work, to date, has
shown that mandatory adoption of IFRS has led to the improvement in analyst forecasts. Tan,
Wang and Welker (2011) show mandated IFRS adoption leads to a general increase in analyst
coverage and a significant increase in foreign analysts’ forecast accuracy. They suggest this is
due to the comparability benefits across countries that accounting harmonization brings, further
increasing the usefulness of accounting information. Likewise, Horton et al. (2013) provide
evidence there is an overall improvement in the information environment. They find this is
particularly true in countries whose previous GAAP regime differs from IFRS, as analyst
forecasting performance improves significantly in these markets. Additionally, both Ball (2006)
and Wysocki (2011) note that although reporting standards may now be uniform under IFRS in
countries that adopt it, the reporting quality is likely to vary dependent on national institutional
features. This is further highlighted by Barth, Landsman and Lang (2005) who argue accounting
quality is of vital importance in determining the benefits of adopting a better disclosure regime.
The implication of this is that the variation in the performance of analyst forecasts in IFRS
countries may, at least, be partially a function of the audit and compliance regime within the
country.
At a firm level, Hutton, Marcus and Tehranian (2009) show that U.S. firms with a higher
degree of opacity, as measured by earnings management, also have a higher R2, implying less
firm-specific information is being impounded in stocks with less transparent financial statements.
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Likewise, Jin and Myers (2006) examine the degree of opacity in firms across a number of
countries and find a similar result: namely, for countries where firms are able to be more opaque,
the level of return synchronicity increases. They also find the likelihood of market crashes
increases in more opaque markets.
The level of firm opacity will also have an impact on the type of information analysts
collect on the company and reveal to the market. Importantly, this will also be influenced by the
accounting compliance regime of the country. Even though a country may impose a set of good
quality accounting standards, such as IFRS, it does not mean that individual firms will adhere to
them unless there is a good compliance regime to back up the standards. This leads us to our
second hypothesis. We expect that the incentives to produce quality accounting reports and
financial statements will be positively related to the strength of the audit regime that is prevalent
within a market. As such, the costs for analysts of extracting firm-specific information will be
more pronounced for firms that might take advantage of firm-level information asymmetries in
weak enforcement environments. If this is the case, then we should observe that analysts working
in weaker compliance regimes are more likely to impound market-wide information, as opposed
to firm-level information, for firms with potentially high levels of information asymmetries:
H2: Dependent on the compliance regime, the level of a firm’s information asymmetries
will significantly affect the type of information analysts impound onto the market.
In this paper we consider two sources of information asymmetries that the stakeholders of
the firm have some control over. They are the proportion of intangible assets a firm has and the
degree of strategic investors that are in a firm. In the case of intangibles, Barth, Kasnik and
McNichols (2001) highlight the fact that firms with substantial, intangible assets are more likely
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to have a greater information asymmetry between managers and investors, leading to more
uncertainty on the fundamental value of the firm. Additionally, how intangibles are reported is
directly related to the accounting and audit quality environment which will also have an impact
on how easy analysts can extract firm-specific information for these firms.
The second measure, the proportion of strategic investors within a firm, focuses on the
ownership structure of the company. Jiambalvo, Rajgopal and Venkatachalam (2002) note that
firms with a greater proportion of strategic investors discourages the release of private
information. Supporting this point, Fan and Wong (2002) show that greater corporate ownership
can discourage disclosure as it is not to the advantage of the incumbent investors. This will
increase the cost to the analyst in extracting firm-specific information. In the context of our
paper, we would expect that there is a likely reduction in the private information advantage these
strategic investors have if the auditing environment is strong. If it is weak, then their ability to
withhold price-sensitive information will grow.
It is also possible that a nonlinear relationship exists. Morck, Shleifer, Vishny (1988)
provide evidence that an inverted U-shape relationship can materialize between the proportion of
strategic investors and firm information asymmetries. Not only can a large proportion of strategic
investors lead to a limitation of firm-relevant information being released to the market, but also if
there are too few strategic investors. The incentive to monitor the firm diminishes if ownership is
spread very thinly between minority shareholders. In either case, we expect to find that in weaker
compliance regimes the ownership structure of the firm plays an important role in the likelihood
of analysts collating and revealing firm-specific information to the market. The weaker the
compliance regime, the more likely an unfavorable ownership structure will lead to a firm
holding price-relevant information to the market.
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We also examine a third measure based on the work of Dasgupta, Gan and Gao (2010).
They show that the more time the market has to learn about a firm’s time-invariant
characteristics, the larger the stock return synchronicity will be. However, we expect this to be
the case only for firms located in high quality audit environments, as the benefit of learning over
time about a firm’s intrinsic quality, for example, can only happen if investors can trust the
quality of the financial reports. Following Dasgputa, et al. (2010), we use firm age as our
measure and expect that its role in explaining a firm’s level of return synchronicity is only
significant in a strong audit environment.
3. Data and research method
Our sample consists of all 15 countries and one special economic zone that are part of
either the G-20 list of nations or the International Monetary Fund (IMF) list of emerging markets1
that have proceeded with mandatory adoption of IFRS by 2008. The reason for picking only
countries that have fully adopted IFRS is to ensure that the accounting standards regime is, as
much as possible, the same across our sample of countries so that any differences in reporting
quality will be a result of institutional features prevalent within the market, separate to the
disclosure standards.
Our sample consists of five developed markets (Australia, France, Germany, Italy and the
United Kingdom) plus five emerging markets (Brazil, China, South Africa and Turkey) from the
G-20 list and an additional seven emerging economies from the IMF list (Chile, Hong Kong
(which we treat separately to mainland China), Israel, Philippines, Poland, Qatar and the United
Arab Emirates (U.A.E.). The cut-off date of 2008 was chosen for a specific reason. Choosing a
1 We obtain the adoption year of each country from the IFRS Foundation and IASPlus websites.
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date earlier than this limits the breadth of the countries we can use and choosing a date after this
limits the time series properties of our dataset. With the exception of Turkey, all countries will
have had at least one year of mandatory IFRS.2
We use Worldscope and Thomson Reuters to identify firms within these markets. We are
able to identify a total of 13,766 stocks from 2008 until 2013. We delete (i) 2,800 firms which do
not have Institutional Brokers Estimate System (IBES) codes (as we cannot match analyst
coverage with them); (ii) another 5,265 firms that do not fully adopt IFRS during our study
period; and (iii) 435 firms that we cannot adequately track appropriate accounting standards for.
As we intend to measure analyst coverage by the number of analysts in the IBES database that
provide one-year ahead earnings per share (EPS) forecasts on a firm, we further reduce the
sample of stocks by another 1,287 firms3 with no earnings forecasts matched to them. We also
delete another 238 firms which do not have a minimum of 40 consecutive trading weeks of stock
data to enable our calculation of stock return synchronicity. Additionally, we lose 54 firms due to
missing observations for at least one of our firm-specific variables. The final sample of firms
equates to 3,684. This amounts to 16,374 firm-year observations with 69,620 EPS forecasts from
37,096 analyst-year observations. Panel A of Table 1 provides details of the year each country in
our sample adopted IFRS, the total number of firms in our sample from each country and a break-
down of analyst coverage over time. Chile has the fewest number with 13 analyst-year
observations, while the United Kingdom has the largest (9,262). Although dominated by the
2 Dasgupta, et al. (2010) suggests that return synchronicity may increase if the information environment improves as
there should be a reduction in price-sensitive surprises for the firm in the future. From our perspective, we want to
ensure that our analysis is not influenced by any possible change in synchronicity levels from the transition phase of
adopting IFRS, per se, if this leads to an improved information environment. As such, with the exception of Turkey,
all of the markets we examine have at least one year of mandatory adoption preceding our chosen sample time
period. Also, whether we include Turkey within our sample or not makes no qualitative difference to our results. 3 Our empirical analysis uses three-way interaction terms that produces high multicollinearity if a large proportion of
firms have no analysts following.
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developed markets, our sample consists of a sizable minority of analysts following the emerging
markets (approximately a quarter) which ensures cross-sectional variation in the explanatory
variables we intend to use. Panel B provides a breakdown of firms and analyst coverage by
industry classification.
Our dependent variable in our regressions is the stock return synchronicity measure,
SYNCH. We calculate it following Piotroski and Roulstone (2004) by estimating the linear
regression:
Ri,t = β0 + β1Rm,t + β2Rm,t-1 + β3Rindustry,t + β4Rindustry,t-1 + εi,t (1)
where Ri,t is the return of stock i at week t, Rm,t is the market return at week t and Rindustry,t is the
industry return at week t. The industry return Rindustry,t for week t is created using all firms with
the same two-digit GICS sector code within a country. As with other papers, we also include one
period lags into the model. We estimate this regression for each firm-year using weekly
observations over a minimum of 40 weeks. We define synchronicity as:
(2)
where R2 is the coefficient of determination from the estimation of Eq. (1) for firm i in year t. A
high SYNCH indicates that the firm is highly correlated with the market. Table 2 shows the
descriptive statistics, sorted by country, of the stock return synchronicity measure. All the
developed markets in our sample, with the exception of Italy, have return synchronicity measures
that are smaller than the average SYNCH across our sample of countries (-0.7). This indicates
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that, on average, stock prices in these developed markets are less likely to follow market-wide
trends. The table also shows the dispersion of our analyst coverage variable across countries. We
use one plus the natural logarithm of the number of analysts (ANALYST) covering company i in
year t. For our sample the average number of analysts following stocks in our sample is 1.18. The
number varies across countries, based not only on the size of the overall market but also the
number of stocks we use in a country. For some of the smaller markets this explains why analyst
coverage may be high.
Associated with each country in the table are also the two measures we use to assess the
likelihood that a country complies with the auditing and accounting standards of the country. Our
direct measurement is AUDITING STRENGTH that comes from a survey question contained in
the World Economic Forum Database (WEFD) that asks businesses ‘In your country, how would
you assess financial auditing and reporting standards regarding company financial performance?’.
The answer is based on a Likert scale, with one implying a negative answer to the question, and
seven very positive (in terms of auditing strength and quality of financial reporting). This
provides us with a measure from businesses of their perception towards the auditing strength
within their country.
To complement this, and to capture corporate governance factors, we use a measure called
INVESTOR PROTECTION taken from the Doing Business Database.4 The indicator reflects the
average score obtained from three dimensions of investor protections, which deal with (i) the
transparency of related party transactions (measuring the extent of disclosure); (ii) director’s
liability, and (iii) shareholders’ ability to sue directors for misconduct. The data is, again, taken
4 Information about the database can be found at http://www.doingbusiness.org/. The Doing Business Project
provides objective measures of business regulations and enforcement of them in 189 countries around the world.
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from a questionnaire provided to corporate and securities lawyers and is based on securities
regulations, company laws, civil procedure codes and court rules of evidence.
Table 2 further shows the descriptive statistics for our firm-specific variables of interest and
our control variables. The first three are our information asymmetry variables. INTANGIBLES is
the total value of intangibles to total assets in a firm, STRATEGIC HOLDINGS is the percentage
of total shares in issue of 5% or more, held strategically and not available to common investors,
and AGE is the number of years a firm has been listed on an exchange.
The remaining six variables form the control set. DIVERSITY is a count of the number of
Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes a firm’s operations are associated with. The larger
the number, the greater its diversity of business operations. We expect a positive relationship to
exist between this and stock return synchronicity as a business with operations across a number
of industries will share more features with the general trend of the market than a firm which is
highly concentrated in a particular industry. Secondly, we control for the SIZE of the firm as the
natural logarithm of the total assets within a company. The larger the size of the company the
more proportionally weighted it will be to the market index. We therefore expect a positive
relationship between stock return synchronicity and SIZE. Third, we calculate the natural
logarithm of company i’s year-t trading volume. We expect the coefficient associated with this
measure, VOLUME, to have a positive sign as more actively traded companies are able to react
to information more rapidly and in a synchronous manner (see Alford and Berger, 1999). We also
calculate the annualized weekly stock return volatility (COMPANY RISK). Private information
is more valuable for firms with higher return volatility and therefore this may affect the level of
return synchronicity for these firms, as well as the number of analysts following the firm
(Bhushan, 1989). We expect a positive relationship between COMPANY RISK and stock return
synchronicity. Furthermore, we control for industry concentration by creating a Herfindahl
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revenue-based index, H-INDEX. Piotroski and Roulstone (2004) show that the more
concentrated the industry is, the more likely individual firms in the industry will be synchronous
with each other in respect to their returns. Finally, GNI is the logarithm of the gross national
income of a country on a per capita basis. We use this as a general proxy for the macro-economic
wealth of a country.
To see if there is a difference in the variables across institutional environments, Table 3
shows the means, medians and results from conducting difference tests in splitting the data by
institutional features, rather than by country. Firms are sorted into low and high INVESTOR
PROTECTION and AUDIT STRENGTH categories based on whether a firm is located in an
environment that is below or above the respective medians of these two variables. Both t-tests on
the means and Wilcoxon tests on the medians reveal that there are significant differences across
the categories. In particular, and in alignment with our expectations, even when the accounting
standards are similar across countries, SYNCH is significantly lower when there is higher
investor protection and stronger auditing strength.
Table 4 provides a correlation matrix. None of the pairwise correlations are particularly
high, with ANALYST and SIZE being the largest at 0.59. Also, it is worth highlighting that none
of the variables we are using to capture the institutional features of a country are highly collinear,
implying they are measuring different attributes of the overall information environment within a
country. The correlation between INVESTOR PROTECTION and AUDITING STRENGTH is
only 0.36. Even if we split the sample by high and low median values for these two variables, as
in Table 3, pairwise correlations between these two variables are no larger than 0.7.
When analyzing the correlations between our dependent variable, SYNCH, and the
explanatory variables, we notice they hold the correct signs for those measures where we predict
a sign. In particular, both institutional variables have a negative relationship with SYNCH,
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indicating the better the institutional features of a country the more firm-specific information is
likely to be produced. With analyst coverage, SYNCH has a positive relationship (a correlation of
0.36), similar to the results obtained in other studies (see Chan and Hameed, 2006).
Based on the above list of variables, our empirical framework that we use to test our
hypotheses has our dependent variable, SYNCH, to be a function of several factors:
SYNCHi,t = f (ANALYSTi,t, institutional variables, information asymmetry variables, (3)
interaction variables, control variables, fixed effects).
where the institutional variables are our measures that capture the auditing strength and investor
protection within a country, the information asymmetry variables are our measures for intangible
assets within a firm, share ownership structure and firm age, and the interaction terms are cross-
product variables from multiplying analyst coverage with one of our information asymmetry
variables to examine the impact information asymmetry has on the type of information analysts
collect and impound into the market.
Additionally, in all our analyses we incorporate both country and period fixed effects to
account for the possibility of any omitted variable bias that we have not explicitly controlled for
using our set of independent variables. Also, when generating the results from our panel
regressions we report heteroskedasticity and contemporaneous correlation corrected standard
errors.
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4. Empirical analysis
4.1. The impact of the audit regime and investor protection on return synchronicity
In order to facilitate the ease of interpretation of the cross-product terms that we use we
transform both our firm asymmetry variables and our institutional variables into dichotomous
values, taking the value of one if a particular observation is above the median value of our
sample, and zero otherwise. This ensures that all our interaction terms comprise of one dummy
variable and one continuous variable.
Table 5 focuses on the importance of AUDIT STRENGTH in influencing the type of
information analysts impound into the market. Regression 5.1 provides a base-line result using
the full sample of data to address our first hypothesis. As with Chan and Hameed (2006) we find
that ANALYST coverage increases stock return synchronicity. However, in alignment with the
descriptive statistics and correlations presented in Tables 3 and 4, we also find that both AUDIT
STRENGTH and INVESTOR PROTECTION reduce this value. Specifically, the coefficient for
the dummy variable of INVESTOR PROTECTION (-1.228) is significantly negative at the 10%
level, while the interaction term for AUDIT STRENGTH with ANALYST is also negative and
significant at the 1% level. In the latter case, the result supports our first hypothesis that in
environments with high auditing strength and quality, analysts are more likely to impound firm-
specific information into the market and thereby lower stock return synchronicity.
The remaining set of regressions in Table 5 are based on splitting the data into high and low
audit strength environments in order to examine how this affects the type of information analysts
reveal when dealing with firms with differing levels of information asymmetries. Regressions 5.2
and 5.5 show the results from including variables to account for INTANGIBLES and firm AGE.
In the case of INTANGIBLES it is negative and significant in the strong audit strength
environment (a coefficient of -0.1325), but positive and significant in the weak audit strength
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environment (0.0807). This result is interesting. Given that we expect the valuation of firms that
have more intangible assets to be more complex and dependent on the reliability of their financial
statements for guidance; these results suggest that the audit environment does have a substantial
impact on the type of information that is revealed to the market for these types of firms. Where
audit quality is good the ability to extract firm-specific information will be easier, and this is
reflected in a reduction in stock return synchronicity. Conversely, in a weak audit environment
the costs of extracting firm-level information will be much higher if the reliability of a firm’s
financial reports are questionable, leading to stock returns following more general industry and
market trends.
Supporting the previous findings, regressions 5.3 and 5.6 include an interaction term for
INTANGIBLES with ANALYST which shows that only in the strong audit strength environment
does return synchronicity reduce as a result of analysts following a stock. If the financial
statements of a firm are unreliable, such as is more likely to be the case in the weak audit strength
environment, then the ability for analysts to reveal firm-specific information from these reports
will be less likely.
In regards to firm age, we find that the coefficient values for the parameter AGE are always
insignificant, regardless of the audit strength environment. However, in Regressions 5.4 and 5.7
where we include interaction terms for AGE with ANALYST, we do find the coefficients to be
positive and significant, at the 5% levels, regardless of the quality of the audit regime. This
would be in agreement with Dasgupta (2010) that older firms will have higher levels of return
synchronicity associated with it as the market is more familiar with the intrinsic, time-invariant,
properties of the firm. In our case, it would seem this is impounded through analyst coverage
with the audit environment making little difference to the result.
20
Table 6 presents the same set of regressions as in Table 5, but this time with a focus on
INVESTOR PROTECTION. Most of the results are similar to Table 5, but there are some
interesting differences. Focusing on the impact that AGE has on synchronicity we find that it
only has a significant, positive impact when the investor protection environment is high. Either
the coefficient values for AGE are positive (Regressions 6.2 and 6.3) or the combined effect of
AGE and its interaction with ANALYST leads to a significant, positive outcome (Regression
6.4). We find no significant relationship when examining the regression results for the low
investor protection environment. This result is interesting as it indicates that firm age may only
be useful in explaining stock return synchronicity under a beneficial institutional environment.
This would, to some extent, be expected given that the ability for firm age to provide investors
with a better gauge of a firm’s intrinsic value and reduce uncertainty about future surprises can
only occur if the compliance regime is strong enough to ensure price-relevant information on the
stock is revealed to the market. This would not be the case in a low investor protection
environment.
Tables 7 and 8 replicate the regressions listed in Table 5 and 6, but now focus on the impact
that share ownership structure has on stock return synchronicity. To account for possible
differences in the relationship between STRATEGIC HOLDINGS and SYNCH depending on
whether there are a lot or just a few strategic investors, we create two dummy variables to
represent low strategic holdings (DD_SH_BOTTOM25 is equal to one if the proportion of
strategic holdings for the firm is within the bottom quartile of our sample of firms, and zero
otherwise) and high strategic holdings (DD_SH_TOP25 is equal to one if the proportion of
strategic holdings for the firm is within the top quartile of our sample, and zero otherwise) in our
analysis.
21
Focusing on Table 7 that looks at weak and strong auditing strength environments, we find
that the proportion of strategic investors has no impact on the type of information analysts
impound into the market when audit quality is strong. The interaction terms in Regressions 7.1
and 7.2 are always insignificant. The individual effects, however, do reveal differences in stock
return synchronicity relating to the concentration of strategic holdings of a firm. Firms with a
high proportion of strategic investors have a significantly reduced return synchronicity, whilst
firms with relatively low levels of strategic investors have a higher return synchronicity. Our
view is that in a good quality audit environment, the ability for the market to extract firm-specific
information from companies that have concentrated shareholdings will be easier, leading to a
reduction in synchronicity. The ability for larger strategic investors to withhold price-relevant
information (Jiambalvo, et al., 2002) will be substantially reduced where the audit quality
environment is strong. However, the audit regime cannot reveal additional information if none is
collected to begin with. Where there are very few strategic investors, the incentive for
stakeholderes to collect firm information is limited if their holdings are small. This will lead, as
Morck, et al. (1988) argue, to a general rise in information asymmetries between the firm and the
market, and hence the rise in return synchronicity that we observe.
When comparing the above results to the weak audit environment there is one main
difference that emerges. First, as we would expect, high levels of firm concentration do not lead
to a reduction in return synchronicity, as is the case in the strong audit environment. As for the
case with low levels of ownership concentration, the result does not change, with return
synchronicity rising for the same reasons we expect it does within the strong audit environment.
For Table 8, where we split our sample between high and low investor protection, we
broadly find the results similar to Table 7. The only significant difference that we observe is that
when there are a lot of strategic investors (SH_TOP25) the overall effect is to reduce
22
synchronicity in both the low and high investor protection environments. However, the role that
analysts play is different. In the high investor protection regime the coefficient for the interaction
term of SH_TOP25 with ANALYST is negative and significant (-0.0576), whilst it is positive
and significant (0.1226) within the low investor protection environment. We interpret this to
imply that analysts can only reveal industry and market-wide information on the stocks when the
investor protection environment is weak, but when it is strong they have the ability to extract
firm-level information.
4.2 Robustness tests
We test a number of alternate model and sample specifications to see if our results are
robust to changes in the regression framework. In Table 9 we present the results from a Placebo
test where we randomly assign a firm to a country other than where it truly resides. If the
institutional environment of a firm is important in determining the return synchronicity of a
company, then we should find that randomly placing a firm in another country leads to the
importance of that country’s institutional features to be irrelevant. Table 9 records the number of
positive and negative coefficient values that are also significant (at the 10% level) from
conducting the randomization 100 times on Regressions 5.1 and 6.1 on the full sample of data.
What we find is that 100% of the time ANALYST is significant and positive. We expect this to
be the case as it should not matter where the firm resides that analyst coverage increases a firm’s
return synchronicity. It is a factor relating to the firm, not the country. When we turn our
attention to the institutional variables we find that there is no particular outcome that dominates
the coefficient results. At best, we find that 76% of the time there is a significant and positive
AUDITING STRENGTH coefficient. However, the sign is, in fact, opposite to what we should
expect. Furthermore, the interaction terms do not deliver any strong results either, implying that
23
the outcomes are randomly drawn. From this we conclude that a country’s institutional features
are unique in affecting a firm’s return synchronicity domiciled in the country, and is not a result
of our sample of firms being stochastically related to the compliance regime.
Table 10 is split into three panels and provides the results from either changing the control
variables that we use for our regressions or the sample of countries that we include. For brevity,
we provide the results only for analyzing the impact that INTANGIBLES has on firm
synchronicity. Starting with Panel A, we select an alternative set on controls. For firm size we
use the log of the market capitalization of the firm instead of total assets. Instead of firm
volatility, we measure general stock market volatility and use a dummy variable that equals one if
the firm has business operations spanning three or more SICs and zero otherwise, to represent the
diversity of business operations within a company. We also employ a variable called that
measures trading volume by total outstanding shares as a measure of liquidity. Finally, we
include a macroeconomic variable which is the logarithm of a country’s GDP per capita.
Our results are not substantially different from Table 5. Regression 10.1 reveals that in a
strong audit quality environment, analyst coverage of a firm reveals further firm-specific
information to the market. The same is true within a weak audit environment as the interaction
term between ANALYST and INTANGIBLES is negative and significant (a coefficient of -
0.038), although only at the 10% level, relative to the 1% significance the coefficient obtained in
the strong audit regime. However, the coefficient for INTANGIBLES by itself is positive with a
value of 0.1334. This implies that within a weak audit regime the impact of intangibles does still
lead to an increase in return synchronicity, as would be expected, although analysts are still able
to extract firm-level information from the firms. In the case of Regressions 10.3 and 10.4, the
results are more clear-cut. Only in the high investor protection environment is there any evidence
that return synchronicity is reduced in the presence of analysts following a firm.
24
Panel B repeats the above exercise, but this time we remove the largest five firms in each
country. It can be argued that in emerging markets a few large firms dominate the stock market
and therefore our results may show a bias due to favoring higher return synchronicity from these
companies in our sample, despite us already accounting for firm size as one of our controls. The
results from this set of regressions provide complement the outcomes that we observe in Panel A,
with little deviation. In Panel C of Table 10 we show the results for when we remove countries
with less than one hundred firms in our sample (Brazil, Chile, Hong Kong, Israel, Philippines,
Qatar, Turkey and U.A.E.) in case a bias originates from there. The overall results are not
significantly different from our previous regressions, indicating that our findings are not
influenced by a small country sample bias. Only in strong audit and high investor protection
environments do we find evidence that analysts are able to impound firm-specific information
into stock prices.
We also perform a number of other tests to see what happens if we do not include industry
returns for our cohort of emerging markets in equation (1) when calculating SYNCH because in
smaller markets a few large companies may be driving a whole industry and therefore there will
be a high covariance between industry returns and large firms dominating the industry. Although
not tabulated, our results, again, do not substantially change. The same is true if we focus on
replicating the results from analyzing strategic investors with our alternate set of controls and
changes to the sample of firms and countries we select. The core results remain qualitatively the
same.
25
5. Conclusion
As information intermediaries, financial analysts play an important role in disseminating
timely information into the financial markets on the current and future value of a stock. In this
paper we show that the type of information they collect and then impound into stock prices is
dependent on the quality of the audit and financial reporting environment. We also show that
audit quality is particularly important where there is more likely to be information asymmetries
between the firm and market. Specifically, we find that the compliance regime moderates the
type of information analysts impound dependent on the ownership structure of the firm and the
level of intangible assets a firm has.
Our results demonstrate that a good compliance regime, through the maintenance of a
strong audit and financial reporting environment, is extremely important in influencing the type
of information analysts impound into the market. From a policy perspective our results provide
impetus for regulators to pursue the enforcement of accounting standards to encourage market
efficiency and assist the role analysts can play as financial intermediaries within these markets in
revealing firm-level information.
26
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29
Table 1: Analyst Coverage This table reports the IFRS adoption year, number of firms and analyst coverage by country (Panel A) and industry (Panel B). The IFRS adoption year is obtained from the IFRS Foundation and IASPlus websites. The number of firms which adopt IFRS during the study period are obtained from the Thomson Reuters database. Analyst coverage data is provided by the Institutional Brokers' Estimate System database. Panel A: Country statistics
Year of IFRS
adoption No. of Firms
No. of analysts in each country
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total
Australia 2005 702 537 505 551 548 491 420 3,052
Brazil 2007 12 35 36 38 58 58 40 265
Chile 2005 5
4 4 5 13
China 2007 141 429 499 549 537 460 329 2,803
France 2005 383 1,278 1,205 1,262 1,172 986 880 6,783
Germany 2005 465 1,190 1,182 1,223 1,142 963 836 6,536
Hong Kong 2005 48 232 241 275 299 262 221 1,530
Israel 2006 53 34 35 37 43 37 36 222
Italy 2005 217 590 588 599 576 471 398 3,222
Philippines 2005 16 25 27 26 27 23 19 147
Poland 2005 157 118 160 161 160 137 117 853
Qatar 1995 22 23 37 56 65 44 37 262
South Africa 2005 174 174 200 205 187 162 130 1,058
Turkey 2008 23 85 93 98 113 98 87 574
United Arab Emirates 2003 50 59 95 101 115 78 66 514
United Kingdom 2005 1,216 1,602 1,683 1,695 1,666 1,435 1,181 9,262
Total 3684 6411 6586 6876 6712 5709 4802 37096
30
Table 1: Analyst Coverage (continued) Panel B: Industry statistics
Industry No. of Firms No. of analyst in each industry
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total
Energy 269 470 511 564 561 505 403 3014
Materials 507 791 825 860 891 783 634 4784
Industrials 660 1313 1375 1396 1373 1122 904 7483
Consumer Discretionary 580 1245 1224 1265 1199 1014 858 6805
Consumer Staples 192 602 605 623 582 494 384 3290
Health Care 250 456 455 458 410 352 306 2437
Financials 628 1034 1082 1056 990 837 677 5676
Information Technology 453 776 743 766 761 616 515 4177
Telecommunication Services 58 342 345 345 314 277 245 1868
Utilities 87 274 283 279 269 224 184 1513
Total 3684 7303 7448 7612 7350 6224 5110 41047
Note: The total number of analyst-year observations in panel B (41,047) is greater than panel A (37,096) because some analysts track multiple firms across multiple industries.
31
Table 2: Descriptive Statistics This table presents the descriptive statistics of the dependent variable and independent variables. SYNCH is the measure of annual stock return synchronicity calculated from equation (2) using the R2 obtained from the industry and market model regression of equation (1) from weekly observations. ANALYST is the natural logarithm of one plus the number of analysts. INVESTOR PROTECTION reflects the average score of transparency of related party transactions, director’s liability and ability to sue directors for misconduct. AUDITING STRENGTH reflects the auditing strength and quality of financial reporting of each country. INTANGIBLE is the total intangible assets relative to total assets of a firm. STRATEGIC HOLDINGS is the percentage of total strategic holdings relative to total number of shares. AGE is the number of years the firm has been listed on an exchange. DIVERSITY is a count of the number of SIC codes a firm’s operations are associated with. SIZE is the natural logarithm of company total assets. VOLUME is the natural logarithm of company yearly trading volume. COMPANY RISK is the annualised weekly stock return volatility. H INDEX is a revenue-based industry Herfindahl index. GNI is the logarithm of the gross national income of a country on a per capita basis. Panel A
Variables SYNCH ANALYST INVESTOR
PROTECTION AUDITING
STRENGTH INTANGIBLES AGE
Source of Data I/B/E/S database Doing Business
Database World Economic Forum Database
Thomson Reuters database
Thomson Reuters database
Country Average Std Dev Average Std Dev Average Std Dev Average Std Dev Average Std Dev Average Std Dev
Australia -1.42 0.92 1.20 1.06 5.70 0.00 6.03 0.16 0.06 0.14 14.96 18.08
Brazil -0.85 1.03 1.26 0.98 5.30 0.00 4.89 0.14 0.05 0.10 3.12 7.52
Chile -0.79 1.61 0.32 0.52 6.15 0.15 5.48 0.21 0.07 0.09 6.44 12.56
China -1.38 1.16 1.26 1.17 5.00 0.00 4.50 0.33 0.03 0.06 3.57 4.64
France -0.98 1.07 1.60 1.14 5.30 0.00 5.67 0.28 0.06 0.09 13.43 7.00
Germany -1.38 1.17 1.47 1.17 5.00 0.00 5.78 0.34 0.07 0.11 11.17 10.74
Hong Kong -1.22 1.06 1.42 1.28 8.95 0.11 6.05 0.13 0.04 0.12 6.75 8.71
Israel -0.91 1.11 0.55 0.63 8.30 0.00 5.63 0.25 0.04 0.09 7.24 8.98
Italy -0.58 0.97 1.50 1.12 6.00 0.00 4.20 0.19 0.09 0.14 9.71 6.40
Philippines -0.62 0.93 1.06 0.82 4.30 0.00 4.92 0.19 0.03 0.11 33.20 28.60
Poland -0.93 0.96 0.94 0.97 6.00 0.00 4.89 0.31 0.05 0.10 6.89 10.11
Qatar 1.95 5.39 1.08 1.01 4.30 0.00 5.70 0.30 0.01 0.06 8.99 11.04
South Africa -1.39 1.03 1.31 0.95 8.00 0.00 6.34 0.15 0.04 0.10 16.20 19.83
Turkey -0.21 0.87 1.41 1.25 5.63 0.15 4.48 0.21 0.04 0.09 6.56 10.00
United Arab Emirates 1.13 6.12 1.19 1.00 4.00 0.00 5.32 0.08 0.03 0.08 8.30 10.79
United Kingdom -1.55 1.08 1.29 1.07 8.00 0.00 5.89 0.23 0.10 0.17 19.94 24.31
Simple Average# -0.70 1.66 1.18 1.01 6.00 0.03 5.36 0.22 0.05 0.10 11.03 12.46
Simple Median# -0.92 1.07 1.26 1.04 5.67 0.00 5.56 0.21 0.05 0.10 8.64 10.43 # Simple averages/medians are country equally-weighted statistics.
32
Table 2: Descriptive Statistics (continued) Panel B
Variables STRATEGIC HOLDINGS
DIVERSITY SIZE VOLUME COMPANY RISK H INDEX GNI
Source of Data Datastream database
Datastream database
Thomson Reuters database
Datastream database
Datastream database
Thomson Reuters database
World Bank database
Country Average Std Dev Average Std Dev Average Std Dev Average Std Dev Average Std Dev Average Std Dev Average Std Dev
Australia 0.27 0.20 2.98 1.90 19.01 2.28 11.30 2.05 0.63 0.38 0.17 0.06 10.83 0.16
Brazil 0.33 0.30 3.92 2.23 21.60 1.89 10.91 1.98 0.40 0.20 0.18 0.14 9.18 0.17
Chile 0.04 0.12 5.80 2.07 24.03 3.31 12.85 1.87 0.25 0.12 0.25 0.15 9.39 0.17
China 0.47 0.29 3.53 1.87 22.59 2.69 13.48 2.41 0.51 0.24 0.10 0.09 8.42 0.26
France 0.49 0.26 3.65 2.10 20.51 2.39 8.34 2.92 0.38 0.18 0.16 0.12 10.68 0.01
Germany 0.38 0.30 3.62 1.96 19.66 2.41 6.05 1.88 0.45 0.28 0.19 0.08 10.72 0.03
Hong Kong 0.47 0.27 4.15 2.04 22.00 2.08 12.32 3.01 0.51 0.27 0.10 0.07 10.46 0.06
Israel 0.59 0.22 3.53 2.63 21.35 2.48 9.86 2.68 0.42 0.23 0.18 0.19 10.30 0.09
Italy 0.51 0.23 4.82 2.29 20.72 2.31 10.50 2.60 0.42 0.23 0.25 0.14 10.52 0.02
Philippines 0.24 0.28 3.25 1.65 23.90 2.39 12.78 1.77 0.39 0.21 0.13 0.03 7.90 0.12
Poland 0.54 0.26 5.01 2.31 20.63 1.99 8.92 2.17 0.44 0.20 0.24 0.20 9.44 0.03
Qatar 0.20 0.23 3.82 1.47 23.46 1.49 10.35 1.57 0.38 0.19 0.42 0.27 11.19 0.10
South Africa 0.32 0.24 4.26 2.15 22.44 2.06 11.17 1.86 0.34 0.24 0.15 0.06 8.81 0.10
Turkey 0.18 0.25 3.13 2.26 21.12 1.86 12.83 1.53 0.41 0.16 0.19 0.13 9.22 0.07
United Arab Emirates
0.37 0.28 4.68 2.12 23.02 1.66 12.44 3.12 0.47 0.23 0.24 0.10 10.53 0.09
United Kingdom 0.32 0.22 2.97 1.79 18.46 2.56 10.19 2.58 0.53 0.38 0.44 1.91 10.65 0.05
Simple Average# 0.36 0.25 3.95 2.05 21.53 2.24 10.89 2.25 0.43 0.23 0.21 0.23 9.89 0.10
Simple Median# 0.35 0.26 3.74 2.09 21.48 2.30 11.04 2.11 0.42 0.23 0.19 0.12 10.38 0.09 # Simple averages/medians are country equally-weighted statistics.
33
Table 3: Descriptive Statistics This table presents the descriptive statistics of the dependent variable and independent variables under different institutional environment. SYNCH is the measure of annual stock return synchronicity calculated from equation (2) using the R2 obtained from the industry and market model regression of equation (1) from weekly observations. ANALYST is the natural logarithm of one plus the number of analysts. INVESTOR PROTECTION reflects the average score of transparency of related party transactions, director’s liability and ability to sue directors for misconduct. AUDITING STRENGTH reflects the auditing strength and quality of financial reporting of each country. INTANGIBLE is the total intangible assets relative to total assets of a firm. STRATEGIC HOLDINGS is the percentage of total strategic holdings relative to total number of shares. AGE is the number of years the firm has been listed on an exchange. DIVERSITY is a count of the number of SIC codes a firm’s operations are associated with. SIZE is the natural logarithm of company total assets. VOLUME is the natural logarithm of company yearly trading volume. COMPANY RISK is the annualised weekly stock return volatility. H INDEX is a revenue-based industry Herfindahl index. GNI is the logarithm of the gross national income of a country on a per capita basis.
INVESTOR PROTECTION AUDITING STRENGTH
High Low Different Strong Weak Different
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
SYNCH -1.3079 -1.2623 -1.1210 -1.1266 -0.1869*** -0.1357*** -1.3681 -1.3130 -1.0778 -1.0572 -0.2903*** -0.2558***
ANALYST 1.3858 1.0986 1.5056 1.3863 -0.1198*** -0.2877*** 1.3906 1.0986 1.4904 1.3863 -0.0998*** -0.2877***
INVESTOR PROTECTION
6.8825 8.0000 6.0636 5.7000 0.8190*** 2.3000***
AUDITING STRENGTH
5.6195 5.8669 5.7278 5.7911 -0.1083*** 0.0757
INTANGIBLES 0.0889 0.0220 0.0634 0.0168 0.0255*** 0.0053*** 0.0776 0.0155 0.0768 0.0236 0.0008 -0.0082***
STRATEGIC HOLDINGS
0.3895 0.3827 0.3805 0.3756 0.0091** 0.0071*** 0.3379 0.3117 0.4323 0.4700 -0.0944*** -0.1583***
AGE 17.5425 10.3069 12.8430 10.5507 4.6996*** -0.2438*** 16.7871 9.8534 14.0017 10.9425 2.7855*** -1.0890***
DIVERSITY 3.6838 3.0000 3.5162 3.0000 0.1676*** 0.0000*** 3.3487 3.0000 3.8625 3.0000 -0.5138*** 0.0000***
SIZE 19.5473 19.4670 20.1205 19.7474 -0.5732*** -0.2804*** 19.4055 19.1386 20.2107 19.9929 -0.8052*** -0.8543***
VOLUME 10.2544 10.3244 8.9895 8.7909 1.2649*** 1.5334*** 9.9603 10.2614 9.3910 9.3529 0.5694*** 0.9085***
COMPANY RISK 0.4879 0.4079 0.4967 0.4235 -0.0088* -0.0156*** 0.5681 0.4955 0.4165 0.3608 0.1516*** 0.1347***
H INDEX 0.3907 0.1499 0.1729 0.1560 0.2178*** -0.0061*** 0.4140 0.1456 0.1794 0.1560 0.2346*** -0.0104***
GNI 10.3103 10.5989 10.4839 10.6899 -0.1736*** -0.0910*** 10.4616 10.6808 10.3190 10.5989 0.1427*** 0.0819***
*, ** and *** denote significance at the 10%, 5% and 1% level, respectively.
34
Table 4: Correlation Matrix This table presents the correlation matrix for the dependent and independent variables. SYNCH is the measure of annual stock return synchronicity. ANALYST is the natural logarithm of one plus the number of analysts. INVESTOR PROTECTION reflects the average score of transparency of related party transactions, director’s liability and ability to sue directors for misconduct. AUDITING STRENGTH reflects the auditing strength and quality of financial reporting of each country. INTANGIBLE is the total intangible assets relative to total assets of a firm. STRATEGIC HOLDINGS is the percentage of total strategic holdings relative to total number of shares. AGE is the number of years the firm has been listed on an exchange. DIVERSITY is a count of the number of SIC codes a firm’s operations are associated with. SIZE is the natural logarithm of company total assets. VOLUME is the natural logarithm of company yearly trading volume. COMPANY RISK is the annualised weekly stock return volatility. H INDEX is a revenue-based industry Herfindahl index. GNI is the logarithm of the gross national income of a country on a per capita basis.
SYNCH ANALYST INVESTOR
PROTECTION AUDITING
STRENGTH INTANGIBLES
STRATEGIC HOLDINGS
AGE DIVERSITY SIZE VOLUME COMPANY
RISK H
INDEX GNI
SYNCH 1.0000
ANALYST 0.3578 1.0000
INVESTOR PROTECTION
-0.1721 -0.0430 1.0000
AUDITING STRENGTH
-0.1388 -0.0150 0.3629 1.0000
INTANGIBLES -0.0287 0.0349 0.0929 0.0283 1.0000
STRATEGIC HOLDINGS
-0.0837 -0.0594 -0.0734 -0.1800 -0.0145 1.0000
AGE 0.0334 0.2258 0.1737 0.1396 -0.0487 -0.0518 1.0000
DIVERSITY 0.1560 0.2359 -0.1030 -0.1790 -0.0508 0.0909 0.1637 1.0000
SIZE 0.3846 0.5909 -0.1991 -0.2331 -0.1508 0.0160 0.1141 0.3597 1.0000
VOLUME 0.2709 0.3880 0.1528 -0.0743 0.0356 -0.2811 0.0596 0.0553 0.3981 1.0000
COMPANY RISK -0.0219 -0.2407 0.0379 0.1467 0.0674 -0.1202 -0.1279 -0.1625 -0.3255 0.1125 1.0000
H INDEX 0.0198 -0.0045 0.0838 0.0828 -0.0264 -0.0143 -0.0045 -0.0310 -0.0048 -0.0048 0.0271 1.0000
GNI -0.0298 0.0277 0.0306 0.3848 0.0854 -0.0505 0.1137 -0.1361 -0.3647 -0.2230 0.0902 0.0513 1.0000
35
Table 5: Dependent variable: SYNCH
Reg 5.1 Reg 5.2 Reg 5.3 Reg 5.4 Reg 5.5 Reg 5.6 Reg 5.7
FULL
SAMPLE Strong Auditing Strength & Quality of
Financial Reporting Weak Auditing Strength & Quality of
Financial Reporting
ANALYST 0.2617 0.2203 0.2379 0.1981 0.2777 0.279 0.2462
[10.8084]*** [13.4887]*** [12.2969]*** [9.4594]*** [7.5028]*** [7.1161]*** [5.5040]***
DD_ AUDITING STRENGTH 0.0535
[1.5954]
DD_INVESTOR PROTECTION
-1.2282 -2.6099 -2.6084 -2.6157 -2.1068 -2.1071 -2.1494
[-2.3565]** [-1.8039]* [-1.8005]* [-1.8093]* [-3.5241]*** [-3.5235]*** [-3.6211]***
ANALYST x DD_ AUDITING STRENGTH
-0.0497
[-3.1344]***
DD_INTANGIBLES -0.1325 -0.0778 -0.1324 0.0807 0.0844 0.0783
[-6.3749]*** [-2.1720]** [-6.3655]*** [2.1009]** [1.8093] [2.0248]**
DD_AGE -0.0027 -0.0021 -0.0586 0.0537 0.0537 -0.0254
[-0.1221] [-0.0941] [-1.5573] [1.6348] [1.6359] [-0.4791]
ANALYST x DD_INTANGIBLES
-0.0384
-0.0025
[-1.9579]*
[-0.1062]
ANALYST x DD_AGE 0.0416
0.0558
[1.9769]**
[2.0708]**
DIVERSITY 0.0062 0.0086 0.0092 0.008 0.0038 0.0039 0.0035
[1.3441] [1.5315] [1.6392] [1.4341] [0.5273] [0.5320] [0.4803]
SIZE 0.0839 0.0729 0.0726 0.0727 0.073 0.073 0.0719
[13.1874]*** [10.5922]*** [10.5431]*** [10.5790]*** [5.9534]*** [5.9500]*** [5.9124]***
VOLUME 0.0751 0.0813 0.0813 0.0799 0.0686 0.0686 0.0672
[7.8273]*** [13.6845]*** [13.7050]*** [13.4190]*** [3.6182]*** [3.6213]*** [3.5588]***
COMPANY RISK 0.4518 0.3839 0.3846 0.3812 0.5249 0.5248 0.5207
[12.8416]*** [9.6373]*** [9.6766]*** [9.5832]*** [7.4192]*** [7.4181]*** [7.3167]***
H INDEX 0.0248 0.0279 0.0277 0.0276 0.604 0.6033 0.6082
[4.0035]*** [4.6835]*** [4.6584]*** [4.6486]*** [3.7602]*** [3.7378]*** [3.7969]***
GNI 0.726 0.2417 0.2404 0.2495 -0.4796 -0.4795 -0.4951
[4.0353]*** [1.2862] [1.2795] [1.3293] [-1.7586]* [-1.7592]* [-1.8118]*
Constant and fixed effects YES YES YES YES YES YES YES
Observations: 16367 8141 8141 8141 8226 8226 8226
R-squared: 0.2815 0.2838 0.2841 0.2842 0.2712 0.2712 0.2716
F-statistic: 291.05*** 201.22*** 189.67*** 189.69*** 145.41*** 138.78*** 139.04***
All regression results are from Panel Least Squares regressions with heteroskedasticity and contemporaneous correlation corrected standard errors. T-statistics are in brackets. SYNCH is the measure of annual stock price synchronicity. ANALYST is the natural logarithm of one plus the number of analysts. DD_INVESTOR PROTECTION is a dummy variable that equals one if INVESTOR PROTECTION is greater than the median value across the sample of countries and zero otherwise. INVESTOR PROTECTION reflects the average score of transparency of related party transactions, director’s liability and ability to sue directors for misconduct. DD_AUDITING STRENGTH is a dummy variable that equals one if AUDITING STRENGTH is greater than the median value across our sample of countries and zero otherwise. AUDITING STRENGTH reflects the auditing strength and quality of financial reporting of each country. DD_INTANGIBLES is a dummy variable that equals one if INTANGIBLES is greater than the median value across our sample of countries and zero otherwise. INTANGIBLES is the total intangible assets relative to total assets of a firm. DD_AGE is a dummy variable that equals one if AGE is greater than the median value across our sample of countries and zero otherwise. AGE is the number of years the firm has been listed on an exchange. DIVERSITY is a count of the number of SIC codes a firm’s operations are associated with. SIZE is the natural logarithm of company total assets. VOLUME is the natural logarithm of company yearly trading volume. COMPANY RISK is the annualised weekly stock return volatility. H INDEX is a revenue-based industry Herfindahl index. GNI is the logarithm of the gross national income of a country on a per capita basis. *, ** and *** denote significance at the 10%, 5% and 1% level, respectively.
36
Table 6: Dependent variable: SYNCH
Reg 6.1 Reg 6.2 Reg 6.3 Reg 6.4 Reg 6.5 Reg 6.6 Reg 6.7
FULL
SAMPLE High Investor Protection Low Investor Protection
ANALYST 0.151 0.1806 0.2068 0.1189 0.3282 0.3278 0.3249
[7.4011]*** [12.1400]*** [11.7521]*** [6.5307]*** [6.0788]*** [6.8424]*** [6.7986]***
DD_ AUDITING STRENGTH -0.3025 -0.1227 -0.1224 -0.1237 0.1847 0.1847 0.1846
[-15.4051]*** [-4.5099]*** [-4.5008]*** [-4.5541]*** [0.5407] [0.5405] [0.5404]
DD_INVESTOR PROTECTION
-0.0415
[-1.4268]
ANALYST x DD_INVESTOR PROTECTION
-0.0278
[-1.7864]*
DD_INTANGIBLES -0.0678 0.0013 -0.0712 0.059 0.0576 0.059
[-3.4437]*** [0.0383] [-3.6239]*** [1.0854] [0.9765] [1.0860]
DD_AGE 0.0509 0.0526 -0.0987 -0.0145 -0.0145 -0.0229
[2.4182]** [2.4983]** [-2.8910]*** [-0.2985] [-0.2979] [-0.2688]
ANALYST x DD_INTANGIBLES
-0.05
0.0009
[-2.7964]***
[0.0291]
ANALYST x DD_AGE 0.1124
0.0058
[5.8515]***
[0.1329]
DIVERSITY 0.0236 0.0166 0.0172 0.0164 -0.0037 -0.0038 -0.0039
[5.0189]*** [3.2336]*** [3.3428]*** [3.2048]*** [-0.3397] [-0.3445] [-0.3665]
SIZE 0.1574 0.106 0.1052 0.1045 0.0306 0.0306 0.0306
[19.5520]*** [15.5577]*** [15.3865]*** [15.2988]*** [1.8033]* [1.7984]* [1.7937]
VOLUME 0.0502 0.0814 0.0809 0.0786 0.0664 0.0664 0.0662
[8.4428]*** [14.6184]*** [14.5768]*** [14.0686]*** [3.2847]*** [3.2836]*** [3.2491]***
COMPANY RISK 0.4649 0.3952 0.3929 0.3904 0.509 0.509 0.5081
[12.4987]*** [10.0887]*** [10.0744]*** [10.0753]*** [3.1749]*** [3.1836]*** [3.1971]***
H INDEX 0.0238 0.0268 0.0265 0.0261 1.1723 1.172 1.1717
[3.7349]*** [4.3439]*** [4.2971]*** [4.2419]*** [3.6217]*** [3.6444]*** [3.6285]***
GNI 0.2807 0.1513 0.1511 0.184 -0.5732 -0.5733 -0.5753
[13.0686]*** [0.8421] [0.8409] [1.0256] [-1.3772] [-1.3773] [-1.3737]
Constant and fixed effects YES YES YES YES YES YES YES
Observations: 16367 8859 8859 8859 7508 7508 7508
R-squared: 0.2227 0.3616 0.3622 0.364 0.2341 0.2341 0.2341
F-statistic: 360.47*** 313.04*** 295.29*** 297.69*** 127.17*** 120.46*** 120.46***
All regression results are from Panel Least Squares regressions with heteroskedasticity and contemporaneous correlation corrected standard errors. T-statistics are in brackets. SYNCH is the measure of annual stock price synchronicity. ANALYST is the natural logarithm of one plus the number of analysts. DD_INVESTOR PROTECTION is a dummy variable that equals one if INVESTOR PROTECTION is greater than the median value across the sample of countries and zero otherwise. INVESTOR PROTECTION reflects the average score of transparency of related party transactions, director’s liability and ability to sue directors for misconduct. DD_AUDITING STRENGTH is a dummy variable that equals one if AUDITING STRENGTH is greater than the median value across our sample of countries and zero otherwise. AUDITING STRENGTH reflects the auditing strength and quality of financial reporting of each country. DD_INTANGIBLES is a dummy variable that equals one if INTANGIBLES is greater than the median value across our sample of countries and zero otherwise. INTANGIBLES is the total intangible assets relative to total assets of a firm. DD_AGE is a dummy variable that equals one if AGE is greater than the median value across our sample of countries and zero otherwise. AGE is the number of years the firm has been listed on an exchange. DIVERSITY is a count of the number of SIC codes a firm’s operations are associated with. SIZE is the natural logarithm of company total assets. VOLUME is the natural logarithm of company yearly trading volume. COMPANY RISK is the annualised weekly stock return volatility. H INDEX is a revenue-based industry Herfindahl index. GNI is the logarithm of the gross national income of a country on a per capita basis. *, ** and *** denote significance at the 10%, 5% and 1% level, respectively.
37
Table 7: Dependent variable: SYNCH
Reg 7.1 Reg 7.2 Reg 7.3 Reg 7.4
Strong Auditing Strength & Quality of
Financial Reporting Weak Auditing Strength & Quality of Financial
Reporting
ANALYST 0.2144 0.1803 0.2743 0.2775
[12.3309]*** [10.9507]*** [7.2711]*** [6.7466]***
DD_AGE 0.002 0.0512 0.0542 0.0521
[0.0896] [2.4362]** [1.6334] [1.5761]
DD_INVESTOR PROTECTION -2.6266 -3.3021 -2.0717 -2.0735
[-1.8034]* [-2.2830]** [-3.4374]*** [-3.4527]***
DD_SH BOTTOM25 0.0943
0.0562
[2.2868]**
[0.7909]
DD_SH TOP25 -0.1532
-0.0789
[-3.2702]***
[-1.6021]
ANALYST*DD_SH BOTTOM25 -0.0227
0.0522
[-1.1296]
[1.6814]*
ANALYST*DD_SH TOP25 0.0352
0.0244
[1.3224]
[0.8302]
Constant and fixed effects YES YES YES YES
Control variables YES YES YES YES
Observations: 8141 8141 8226 8226
R-squared: 0.2812 0.3417 0.2723 0.2708
F-statistic: 186.96*** 191.55*** 139.49*** 138.50***
All regression results are from Panel Least Squares regressions with heteroskedasticity and contemporaneous correlation corrected standard errors. T-statistics are in brackets. SYNCH is the measure of annual stock price synchronicity. ANALYST is the natural logarithm of one plus the number of analysts. DD_AGE is a dummy variable that equals one if AGE is greater than the median value across our sample of countries and zero otherwise. AGE is the number of years the firm has been listed on an exchange. DD_INVESTOR PROTECTION is a dummy variable that equals one if INVESTOR PROTECTION is greater than the median value across the sample of countries and zero otherwise. INVESTOR PROTECTION reflects the average score of transparency of related party transactions, director’s liability and ability to sue directors for misconduct. DD_SH BOTTOM25 is a dummy variable that equals one if STRATEGIC HOLDINGS is in the lowest quartile across our sample of countries and zero otherwise. DD_SH TOP25 is a dummy variable that equals one if STRATEGIC HOLDINGS is in the highest quartile across our sample of countries and zero otherwise. STRATEGIC HOLDINGS is the percentage of total strategic holdings relative to total number of shares. *, ** and *** denote significance at the 10%, 5% and 1% level, respectively.
38
Table 8: Dependent variable: SYNCH
Reg 8.1 Reg 8.2 Reg 8.3 Reg 8.4
High Investor Protection Low Investor Protection
ANALYST 0.1571 0.186 0.3456 0.2988
[5.5754]*** [7.3159]*** [6.0696]*** [5.4234]***
DD_AGE 0.0519 0.0510 -0.0103 -0.0035
[1.2428] [1.2040] [-0.2052] [-0.0681]
DD_STRENGTH_AUDITING -0.1229 -0.1229 0.1825 0.1844
[-0.6244] [-0.6235] [0.5352] [0.5401]
DD_SH_BOTTOM25 0.0118 0.1188
[0.2027] [1.7225]*
DD_SH_TOP25 0.0357
-0.3098
[0.8141]
[-3.7942]***
ANALYST*DD_SH_BOTTOM25 0.0589 -0.0329
[2.1297]** [-1.2951]
ANALYST*DD_SH_TOP25 -0.0576
0.1226
[-3.2513]***
[3.9761]***
Constant and fixed effects YES YES YES YES
Control variables YES YES YES YES
Observations: 8859 8859 7508 7508
R-squared: 0.3628 0.3613 0.2343 0.2361
F-statistic: 296.10*** 294.19*** 120.58*** 121.82***
All regression results are from Panel Least Squares regressions with heteroskedasticity and contemporaneous correlation corrected standard errors. T-statistics are in brackets. SYNCH is the measure of annual stock price synchronicity. ANALYST is the natural logarithm of one plus the number of analysts. DD_AGE is a dummy variable that equals one if AGE is greater than the median value across our sample of countries and zero otherwise. AGE is the number of years the firm has been listed on an exchange. DD_INVESTOR PROTECTION is a dummy variable that equals one if INVESTOR PROTECTION is greater than the median value across the sample of countries and zero otherwise. INVESTOR PROTECTION reflects the average score of transparency of related party transactions, director’s liability and ability to sue directors for misconduct. DD_SH BOTTOM25 is a dummy variable that equals one if STRATEGIC HOLDINGS is in the lowest quartile across our sample of countries and zero otherwise. DD_SH TOP25 is a dummy variable that equals one if STRATEGIC HOLDINGS is in the highest quartile across our sample of countries and zero otherwise. STRATEGIC HOLDINGS is the percentage of total strategic holdings relative to total number of shares. *, ** and *** denote significance at the 10%, 5% and 1% level, respectively.
39
Table 9: Placebo Test: Dependent variable: SYNCH
coef Reg 5.1 Reg 6.1
ANALYST negative 0 0
positive 100 100
DD_INVESTOR PROTECTION negative 3 12
positive 8 29
DD_AUDITING STRENGTH negative 0 0
positive 76 24
ANALYST x DD_AUDITING STRENGTH negative 49
positive 0
ANALYST x DD_INVESTOR PROTECTION negative 13
positive 4
Constant and fixed effects
YES YES
Control variables
YES YES
All regression results are from Panel Least Squares regressions with heteroskedasticity and contemporaneous correlation corrected standard errors. SYNCH is the measure of annual stock price synchronicity. ANALYST is the natural logarithm of one plus the number of analysts. DD_INVESTOR PROTECTION is a dummy variable that equals one if INVESTOR PROTECTION is greater than the median value across the sample of countries and zero otherwise. INVESTOR PROTECTION reflects the average score of transparency of related party transactions, director’s liability and ability to sue directors for misconduct. DD_AUDITING STRENGTH is a dummy variable that equals one if AUDITING STRENGTH is greater than the median value across our sample of countries and zero otherwise. AUDITING STRENGTH reflects the auditing strength and quality of financial reporting of each country.
40
Table 10: Robustness Tests Panel A: New Control Variables
Dependent variable: SYNCH Reg 10.1 Reg 10.2 Reg 10.3 Reg 10.4
Auditing Strength & Quality of Financial
Reporting Investor Protection
Strong Weak High Low
ANALYST 0.2688*** 0.3346*** 0.2478*** 0.3732*** DD_INTANGIBLES -0.0646* 0.1334*** 0.0512 0.0588 DD_AGE -0.0136 0.0591* 0.0625*** -0.0100 ANALYST x DD_INTANGIBLES -0.0516*** -0.0380* -0.0982*** 0.0012 DD_INVESTOR PROTECTION -2.284 -0.7431
DD_ AUDITING STRENGTH
-0.1521*** -0.167
Constant and fixed effects YES YES YES YES Control variables YES YES YES YES Observations: 8072 8273 8811 7534 R-squared: 0.3069 0.3002 0.372 0.2704 F-statistic: 209.74*** 160.84*** 306.38*** 146.55***
Panel B: Excluding Large Firms
Dependent variable: SYNCH Reg 10.5 Reg 10.6 Reg 10.7 Reg 10.8
Auditing Strength & Quality of Financial Reporting
Investor Protection
Strong Weak High Low
ANALYST 0.2699*** 0.2054*** 0.2356*** 0.2283*** DD_INTANGIBLES -0.0624* 0.0356 0.0269 -0.0688 DD_AGE 0.006 0.0711*** 0.067*** -0.0148 ANALYST x DD_INTANGIBLES -0.0507*** -0.0328* -0.0626*** -0.0154 DD_INVESTOR PROTECTION -0.029 -0.6681***
DD_AUDITING STRENGTH -0.1743*** 0.1963
Constant and fixed effects YES YES YES YES Control variables YES YES YES YES Observations: 7872 7560 8398 7034 R-squared: 0.2961 0.3643 0.3689 0.2967 F-statistic: 236.04*** 288.22*** 350.01*** 211.53***
Panel C: Excluding Small Countries
Dependent variable: SYNCH Reg 10.9 Reg 10.10 Reg 10.11 Reg 10.12
Auditing Strength & Quality of Financial Reporting
Investor Protection
Dep. Var: Strong Weak High Low
ANALYST 0.2049*** 0.1761*** 0.1871*** 0.3531*** DD_INTANGIBLES -0.0714* 0.0105 0.009 0.0436 DD_AGE -0.0256 -0.0524 0.0519** 0.0197 ANALYST x DD_INTANGIBLES -0.0498** -0.02 -0.0577*** -0.0267 DD_INVESTOR PROTECTION -0.0056 -0.0785
DD_ AUDITING STRENGTH -0.1147*** 0.2521
Constant and fixed effects YES YES YES YES Control variables YES YES YES YES Observations: 8029 7947 8692 7284 R-squared: 0.26 0.2318 0.3442 0.2237 F-statistic: 201.16*** 159.58*** 325.26*** 149.58***
All regression results are from Panel Least Squares regressions with heteroskedasticity and contemporaneous correlation corrected standard errors. SYNCH is the measure of annual stock price synchronicity ANALYST is the natural logarithm of one plus the number of analysts. DD_INVESTOR PROTECTION is a dummy variable that equals one if INVESTOR PROTECTION is greater than the median value across the sample of countries and zero otherwise. INVESTOR PROTECTION reflects the average score of transparency of related party transactions, director’s liability and ability to sue directors for misconduct. DD_AUDITING STRENGTH is a dummy variable that equals one if AUDITING STRENGTH is greater than the median value across our sample of countries and zero otherwise. AUDITING STRENGTH reflects the auditing strength and quality of financial reporting of each country. DD_INTANGIBLES is a dummy variable that equals one if INTANGIBLES is greater than the median value across our sample of countries
41
and zero otherwise. INTANGIBLES is the total intangible assets relative to total assets of a firm. DD_AGE is a dummy variable that equals one if AGE is greater than the median value across our sample of countries and zero otherwise. AGE is the number of years a firm has been listed in an exchange. The new set of controls used in Panel A are the log of the market capitalization of the firm, stock market volatility, a dummy variable equal to one if the firm has business operations in more than one SIC, and zero otherwise, trading volume by total outstanding shares, and the logarithm of a country’s GDP per capita. In Panel B we remove from the sample the five largest firms in each country. In Panel C we delete countries with less than 100 firms. *, ** and *** denote significance at the 10%, 5% and 1% level, respectively.