Analysis of the ERCOT IDR Threshold Requirement Presented by Bill Boswell PWG Meeting May 27, 2009.
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Analysis of the ERCOT IDR Threshold Requirement Presented by Bill Boswell PWG Meeting May 27, 2009
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Transcript of Analysis of the ERCOT IDR Threshold Requirement Presented by Bill Boswell PWG Meeting May 27, 2009.
Analysis of the ERCOT IDR Threshold Requirement
Presented by Bill BoswellPWG MeetingMay 27, 2009
2
Round 1 load research kWh data was used in the analysis. The dollars were calculated by multiplying the kWh times the
corresponding load weighted average MCPE for the corresponding LRS and profiled interval.
Domains Analysis was used to calculate the mean LRS kWh and dollars and mean profiled kWh and dollars for each domain.
A sample point was assigned to a domain when its 15 minute kWh peak fell in the domain range two times during the study period. The following three (3) domains were defined. 0 – 300 kW => Domain 1 301 – 500 kW => Domain 2 501 – 700 kW => Domain 3
Analysis Methodology
3
The profiled interval data for each sample point is calculated using the following procedure.
Sum the LRS intervals to get the daily kWh usage.
Select the profile such as BUSHILF COAST.
Calculate a scaling factor as :
Scaling Factor = daily kWh usage / (total kWh profiled for day)
Scale the BUSHILF COAST profile to the usage for the ESIID by multiplying each interval of the standard BUSHILF COAST profile by the scaling factor.
Analysis Methodology
4
Analysis Methodology
DOMAIN Coast East FWest NCent North SCent South West Total
D1 236 299 170 176 154 219 232 228 1714D2 27 16 55 11 35 20 12 14 190D3 8 6 4 5 10 3 2 1 39
TOTAL 271 321 229 192 199 242 246 243 1943
DOMAIN Coast East FWest NCent North SCent South West TotalD1 100,526 13,658 14,536 111,076 12,105 5,262 52,923 13,643 323,729D2 1,509 130 151 2,112 97 68 289 56 4,412D3 8 29 4 644 11 8 17 1 722TOTAL 102,043 13,817 14,691 113,832 12,213 5,338 53,229 13,700 328,863
Weather Zone
Number of Sample Points in LRS Round 1
DOMAIN POPULATIONWeather Zone
5
1.9
2.9
Mon 08 Tue 09 Wed 10 Thu 11 Fri 12 Sat 13 Sun 14 Mon 15
kWh
Time
2
3
4
5
6
Mon 08 Tue 09 Wed 10 Thu 11 Fri 12 Sat 13 Sun 14 Mon 15
kWh
Time
2
3
4
5
6
Mon 08 Tue 09 Wed 10 Thu 11 Fri 12 Sat 13 Sun 14 Mon 15
kWh
Time
2
3
4
5
6
Mon 08 Tue 09 Wed 10 Thu 11 Fri 12 Sat 13 Sun 14 Mon 15
kWh
Time
LRS kWh Intervals vs Profiled kWh Intervals
Domain 1 - August 8-14, 2005
15 Min LRS kWh Means 15 Min Profiled kWh Means
COAST SOUTH
SCENT NCENT
6
1.9
2.9
Mon 07 Tue 08 Wed 09 Thu 10 Fri 11 Sat 12 Sun 13 Mon 14
kWh
Time
2
3
4
5
6
Mon 07 Tue 08 Wed 09 Thu 10 Fri 11 Sat 12 Sun 13 Mon 14
kWh
Time
2
3
4
5
6
Mon 07 Tue 08 Wed 09 Thu 10 Fri 11 Sat 12 Sun 13 Mon 14
kWh
Time
2
3
4
5
6
Mon 07 Tue 08 Wed 09 Thu 10 Fri 11 Sat 12 Sun 13 Mon 14
kWh
Time
LRS kWh Intervals vs Profiled kWh Intervals
Domain 1 - November 7-13, 2005
15 Min LRS kWh Means 15 Min Profiled kWh Means
COAST SOUTH
SCENT NCENT
7
2.0
Mon 23 Tue 24 Wed 25 Thu 26 Fri 27 Sat 28 Sun 29 Mon 30
kWh
Time
2
3
4
5
Mon 23 Tue 24 Wed 25 Thu 26 Fri 27 Sat 28 Sun 29 Mon 30
kWh
Time
2
3
4
5
Mon 23 Tue 24 Wed 25 Thu 26 Fri 27 Sat 28 Sun 29 Mon 30
kWh
Time
2
3
4
5
Mon 23 Tue 24 Wed 25 Thu 26 Fri 27 Sat 28 Sun 29 Mon 30
kWh
Time
LRS kWh Intervals vs Profiled kWh Intervals
Domain 1 - January 23-29, 2005
15 Min LRS kWh Means 15 Min Profiled kWh Means
COAST SOUTH
SCENT NCENT
8
2
3
4
5
6
Mon 22 Tue 23 Wed 24 Thu 25 Fri 26 Sat 27 Sun 28 Mon 29
kWh
Time
2
3
4
5
6
Mon 22 Tue 23 Wed 24 Thu 25 Fri 26 Sat 27 Sun 28 Mon 29
kWh
Time
2
3
4
5
6
Mon 22 Tue 23 Wed 24 Thu 25 Fri 26 Sat 27 Sun 28 Mon 29
kWh
Time
1.9
2.9
Mon 22 Tue 23 Wed 24 Thu 25 Fri 26 Sat 27 Sun 28 Mon 29
kWh
Time
LRS kWh Intervals vs Profiled kWh Intervals
Domain 1 - May 22-28, 2005
15 Min LRS kWh Means 15 Min Profiled kWh Means
COAST SOUTH
SCENT NCENT
9
20
30
40
50
60
Mon 08 Tue 09 Wed 10 Thu 11 Fri 12 Sat 13 Sun 14 Mon 15
kWh
Time
20
30
40
50
60
Mon 08 Tue 09 Wed 10 Thu 11 Fri 12 Sat 13 Sun 14 Mon 15
kWh
Time
30
40
50
60
70
Mon 08 Tue 09 Wed 10 Thu 11 Fri 12 Sat 13 Sun 14 Mon 15
kWh
Time
20
30
40
50
60
70
Mon 08 Tue 09 Wed 10 Thu 11 Fri 12 Sat 13 Sun 14 Mon 15
kWh
Time
LRS kWh Intervals vs Profiled kWh Intervals
Domain 2 - August 8-14, 2005SOUTH
SCENT NCENT
COAST
15 Min LRS kWh Means 15 Min Profiled kWh Means
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Mon 07 Tue 08 Wed 09 Thu 10 Fri 11 Sat 12 Sun 13 Mon 14
kWh
Time
20
30
40
50
60
70
Mon 07 Tue 08 Wed 09 Thu 10 Fri 11 Sat 12 Sun 13 Mon 14
kWh
Time
20
30
40
50
60
Mon 07 Tue 08 Wed 09 Thu 10 Fri 11 Sat 12 Sun 13 Mon 14
kWh
Time
20
30
40
50
60
Mon 07 Tue 08 Wed 09 Thu 10 Fri 11 Sat 12 Sun 13 Mon 14
kWh
Time
LRS kWh Intervals vs Profiled kWh Intervals
Domain 2 - November 7-13, 2005COAST SOUTH
SCENT NCENT
15 Min LRS kWh Means 15 Min Profiled kWh Means
11
20
30
40
50
Mon 23 Tue 24 Wed 25 Thu 26 Fri 27 Sat 28 Sun 29 Mon 30
kWh
Time
20
30
40
50
Mon 23 Tue 24 Wed 25 Thu 26 Fri 27 Sat 28 Sun 29 Mon 30
kWh
Time
20
30
40
50
Mon 23 Tue 24 Wed 25 Thu 26 Fri 27 Sat 28 Sun 29 Mon 30
kWh
Time
20
30
40
50
60
Mon 23 Tue 24 Wed 25 Thu 26 Fri 27 Sat 28 Sun 29 Mon 30
kWh
Time
LRS kWh Intervals vs Profiled kWh Intervals
Domain 2 - January 23-29, 2005COAST SOUTH
SCENT NCENT
15 Min LRS kWh Means 15 Min Profiled kWh Means
12
30
40
50
60
70
Mon 22 Tue 23 Wed 24 Thu 25 Fri 26 Sat 27 Sun 28 Mon 29
kWh
Time
20
30
40
50
60
70
Mon 22 Tue 23 Wed 24 Thu 25 Fri 26 Sat 27 Sun 28 Mon 29
kWh
Time
30
40
50
60
70
Mon 22 Tue 23 Wed 24 Thu 25 Fri 26 Sat 27 Sun 28 Mon 29
kWh
Time
20
30
40
50
60
70
Mon 22 Tue 23 Wed 24 Thu 25 Fri 26 Sat 27 Sun 28 Mon 29
kWh
Time
LRS kWh Intervals vs Profiled kWh Intervals
Domain 2 - May 22-28, 2005COAST SOUTH
SCENT NCENT
15 Min LRS kWh Means 15 Min Profiled kWh Means
13
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Mon 08 Tue 09 Wed 10 Thu 11 Fri 12 Sat 13 Sun 14 Mon 15
kWh
Time
LRS kWh Intervals vs Profiled kWh Intervals
Domain 3 - August 8-14, 2005
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Mon 08 Tue 09 Wed 10 Thu 11 Fri 12 Sat 13 Sun 14 Mon 15
kWh
Time
COAST SOUTH
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Mon 08 Tue 09 Wed 10 Thu 11 Fri 12 Sat 13 Sun 14 Mon 15
kWh
Time
SCENT
15 Min LRS kWh Means 15 Min Profiled kWh Means
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Mon 08 Tue 09 Wed 10 Thu 11 Fri 12 Sat 13 Sun 14 Mon 15
kWh
Time
NCENT
14
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Mon 07 Tue 08 Wed 09 Thu 10 Fri 11 Sat 12 Sun 13 Mon 14
kWh
Time
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Mon 07 Tue 08 Wed 09 Thu 10 Fri 11 Sat 12 Sun 13 Mon 14
kWh
Time
LRS kWh Intervals vs Profiled kWh Intervals
Domain 3 - November 7-13, 2005
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Mon 07 Tue 08 Wed 09 Thu 10 Fri 11 Sat 12 Sun 13 Mon 14
kWh
Time
COAST SOUTH
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Mon 07 Tue 08 Wed 09 Thu 10 Fri 11 Sat 12 Sun 13 Mon 14
kWh
Time
15 Min LRS kWh Means 15 Min Profiled kWh Means
NCENTSCENT
15
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Mon 23 Tue 24 Wed 25 Thu 26 Fri 27 Sat 28 Sun 29 Mon 30
kWh
Time
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Mon 23 Tue 24 Wed 25 Thu 26 Fri 27 Sat 28 Sun 29 Mon 30
kWh
Time
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Mon 23 Tue 24 Wed 25 Thu 26 Fri 27 Sat 28 Sun 29 Mon 30
kWh
Time
LRS kWh Intervals vs Profiled kWh Intervals
Domain 3 - January 23-29, 2006
40
50
60
70
80
Mon 23 Tue 24 Wed 25 Thu 26 Fri 27 Sat 28 Sun 29 Mon 30
kWh
Time
COAST SOUTH
SCENT
15 Min LRS kWh Means 15 Min Profiled kWh Means
NCENT
16
50
70
90
110
130
Mon 22 Tue 23 Wed 24 Thu 25 Fri 26 Sat 27 Sun 28 Mon 29
kWh
Time
LRS kWh Intervals vs Profiled kWh Intervals
Domain 3 - May 22-28, 2006
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Sun 21 Mon 22 Tue 23 Wed 24 Thu 25 Fri 26 Sat 27 Sun 28
kWh
Time
COAST SOUTH
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Mon 22 Tue 23 Wed 24 Thu 25 Fri 26 Sat 27 Sun 28 Mon 29
kWh
Time
NCENT
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Mon 22 Tue 23 Wed 24 Thu 25 Fri 26 Sat 27 Sun 28 Mon 29
kWh
Time
SCENT
15 Min LRS kWh Means 15 Min Profiled kWh Means
17
Domain 1 Domain 2 Domain 3
COAST 0.000211 0.00714 0.00232
EAST 0.000664 0.00199 -0.01174
FWEST 0.000148 0.00190 0.02884
NCENT 0.000444 0.00035 0.00315
NORTH 0.000288 0.01117 -16.32502
SCENT 0.000317 0.00689 0.01426
SOUTH 0.000266 -0.00469 -0.01751
WEST 0.000314 0.00909 -3.59420
Study Period: J uly 2005 Thru J une 2006Difference = CHANGE - BASEWhere:
BASELINE is the LRS Mean kWh intervals.CHANGE is the Profiled kWh intervals.
WEATHER ZONE
MEAN KWH DIFFERENCES
18
Domain 1 Domain 2 Domain 3
COAST 0.677 2.238 0.581
EAST 0.256 2.118 12.543
FWEST -0.023 3.577 3.696
NCENT -1.127 1.966 2.935
NORTH 0.349 1.290 7.299
SCENT 0.115 1.256 4.923
SOUTH -0.111 3.514 2.615
WEST 0.263 0.632 69.250
Study Period: J uly 2005 Thru J une 2006Percent Difference = (CHANGE - BASE)/BASE * 100Where:
BASELINE is the LRS Mean kWh intervals.CHANGE is the Profiled kWh intervals.
WEATHER ZONE
MEAN KWH PERCENT DIFFERENCES
19
Domain 1 Domain 2 Domain 3
COAST 0.161 3.708 3.645
EAST 0.106 4.703 14.743
FWEST 0.121 5.181 8.955
NCENT 0.274 2.656 7.948
NORTH 0.099 2.755 26.533
SCENT 0.132 4.402 14.347
SOUTH 0.081 5.262 9.717
WEST 0.086 2.514 8.848
Study Period: J uly 2005 Thru J une 2006Difference = ABS(CHANGE - BASE)Where:
BASELINE is the LRS Mean kWh intervals.CHANGE is the Profiled kWh intervals.
WEATHER ZONE
MEAN ABSOLUTE KWH DIFFERENCES
20
Domain 1 Domain 2 Domain 3
COAST 5.396 10.314 5.331
EAST 3.915 14.108 30.535
FWEST 5.047 13.543 17.521
NCENT 8.599 7.117 11.593
NORTH 4.464 7.677 55.037
SCENT 4.670 13.044 19.073
SOUTH 4.279 13.931 12.124
WEST 4.247 5.724 103.218
Study Period: J uly 2005 Thru J une 2006Percent Difference = ABS((CHANGE - BASE)/BASE * 100)Where:
BASELINE is the LRS Mean kWh intervals.CHANGE is the Profiled kWh intervals.
WEATHER ZONE
MEAN ABSOLUTE KWH PERCENT DIFFERENCES
21
Average Day Across the Study Period Domain 1 - COAST
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12AM 03AM 06AM 09AM 12PM 03PM 06PM 09PM 12AM
kW
Interv al Ending
15 Min LRS kWh Means 15 Min Profiled kWh Means
22
Average Day Across the Study Period Domain 1 - NCENT
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
12AM 03AM 06AM 09AM 12PM 03PM 06PM 09PM 12AM
kW
Interv al Ending
15 Min LRS kWh Means 15 Min Profiled kWh Means
23
Average Day Across the Study Period Domain 2 - COAST
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
12AM 03AM 06AM 09AM 12PM 03PM 06PM 09PM 12AM
kW
Interv al Ending
15 Min LRS kWh Means 15 Min Profiled kWh Means
24
Average Day Across the Study Period Domain 2 - NCENT
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
12AM 03AM 06AM 09AM 12PM 03PM 06PM 09PM 12AM
kW
Interv al Ending
15 Min LRS kWh Means 15 Min Profiled kWh Means
25
Average Day Across the Study Period Domain 3 - COAST
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
310
320
330
340
350
12AM 03AM 06AM 09AM 12PM 03PM 06PM 09PM 12AM
kW
Interv al Ending
15 Min LRS kWh Means 15 Min Profiled kWh Means
26
Average Day Across the Study Period Domain 3 - NCENT
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
12AM 03AM 06AM 09AM 12PM 03PM 06PM 09PM 12AM
kW
Interv al Ending
15 Min LRS kWh Means 15 Min Profiled kWh Means
