ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC SITUATION

CONTENT:

1. GROS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GPD)2. UNEMPLOYMENT3. INFLATION4. INCOME PER CAPITA5. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: EXPORTS AND IMPORTS6. SAVINGS AND HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION7. PRODUCTIVE SECTORS IN MURCIA AND CEUTÍ8. ANALYSIS OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

OBJECTIVE: Analysis of the diferent economic indicators from:

A global perspective.

A European and local perspectives.

The economic situation in Spain and the rest of the world per se.

EUROPEAN PROJECT COMENIUS “A NEW REALITY”Partner: Spain (DATE: JANUARY 2009)

1. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)GDP (Gross Domestic Product). The total values of all market goods and services produced in country given in a year

From the years 2000 to 2008 the CPI in the region of Murcia grown above the national CPI.

NOTES:

Convergence 2008 GDP (U.S., euro zone and Japan)

GDP INCREASED Spain until 2007, after drecrease.

Recession since at the end of 2008 (decrease of GDP)

Sharp fall in the construction industry

Gross Domestic Product

Gross Domestic Product

GDP, ACTIVITIES

2. UNEMPLOYMENT

Emphasizes the low birth rate.

External migration has represented Spain at between 84.4% and 92.8% of annual population growth from 2002 to 2007

Most of the population is between 25 and 29 years of age.

Immigration in Spain will fall till 53.8% between 2009 and 2011.

Unemployment increased up to 57.5% and 63’7% in the Region of Murcia and Ceuti respectively from 2006 to 2008.

Sharp fall within the construction industry.

Unemployment in Spain is forecast to reach 19% at the medium term.

UNEMPLOYMENT IN DECEMBER 2008

OCCUPIED RATES

SPANISH POPULATION PYRAMID 2009

3. INFLATION (Increase on the general price level)

Declining inflation and aids to maintain consumption.

Spain inflation matches with other euro zone countries.

It produces a sharp decline in the index of oil contributing to overall inflation at acceptable range.

We have located the lowest inflation rate of the last 15 months.

CONSUMER PRICES CONSUMER PRICESRAW MATERIALS

4. INCOME PERCAPITA GDP per capita is calculated by

contrasting the GDP (gross domestic

product) of a country with its populations

The richest countries in the EU Luxembourg, Ireland and Holland.

Spain is the twelfth country in the EU in GDP per capita and stands for 107% of the EU average.

power Bulgaria (38%), Romania (41%), Poland (54%), Latvia (58%) & Lithuania (60%) are EU countries with fewer purchasing

EU candidate countries data:

Croatia (55%), Turkey (42%), Macedonia (29%), Serbia (35%) and Albania (22%).

Murcia 84.4% GDP

There are great differences regarding the GDP within the EU,. It ranges from the upper level of 303% of Inner (London) in the UK to 24% in the Northwest region of Romania

An economic and monetary union allows to

level the income percapita of each

country

5. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: EXPORTS AND IMPORTS

Spanish exports have grown at a rate of 7.9% during the third quarter of 2008.

Remarkable decrease in the transport & construction industry

Increase exports in Oceania, South America & the emerging European countries.

Decrease in Italy and Germany.

QUARTERLY INDEX OF EXPORT BY GEOGRAPHICAL DESTINATION

QUARTERLY INDEX OF EXPORT BY TYPE OF SERVICE

5. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: EXPORTS AND IMPORTS

SPANISH EXPORTS

Grown at a rate of 7.9%

Fall in the transport & construction industry.

* Spanish exports and import to the third quarter of 2008 by type of service *

SPANISH IMPORTS

Grown at a rate of 5.2%

Fall in the construction industry.

Remarkable Increase in the communication industry.

MURCIA: EXPORTS AND IMPORTS

Europe is clearly the continent where most goods are exported

Exports have surpassed imports

Decrease the arrivals and nights spent by tourists

EXPORTS IMPORTS

TOURISMEvolution of foreign trade in the European Union

6. SAVINGS AND HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION NOTES:

Falling household consumption and fixed capital formation since 2006.

Decreases the rate of consumer confidence since the beginning of 2007.

Both in Spain and the euro zone rate of change of climate in construction has

decreased significantly.

- IN EUROPEAN REGION -

- IN SPAIN -

NOTES:

The growth rate of retail sales have dropped since mid-2007, which reflects the consumers confidence.

Sharp drop in vehicle sales since 2006

Sharp drop in bank loans since 2007

COMPONENTS OF DEMAND: SPAIN AND EURO ZONE CONSUMER

INDEX

INDICATORS CONSUMPTION

•SALES (GREEN)

HOUSEHOLDS FINANCINGCAR SALES

CLIMATE IN THE CONSTRUCTION

7. PRODUCTIVE SECTORS IN MURCIA AND CEUTÍ

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

SECTOR PRIMARIO 0,3

SECTOR SECUNDARIO 11,46

SECTOR TERCIARIO 88,16

EMPRESAS EN CEUTI

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1

TRABAJADORES EN MURCIA SEGÚN SECTOR PRODUCTIVO 2007

SECTOR PRIMARIO

SECUNDARIO

TERCIARIO

- SECTORS IN REGION MURCIA -

- SECTORS IN CEUTÍ - REGION MURCIA:

The tertiary sector includes most companies (90.4%).

Most business have from 1 to 4 employees.

CEUTÍ:

Most jobs belong to the tertiary sector, 66% of the workers speciafically.

SECTOR WORKERS TO MURCIA EVOLUTION SET NUMBER

BUSINESS SECTORS

8. ANALYSIS OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

THE EURO ZONE (with Spain):

NEGATIVE INDICATORS:

GDP Decline; Increased unemployment;

Financial Problems; Possibility of

deflation; Decreased consumption

POSITIVE INDICATORS:

Low interest rates; Increased

Expendidure Public; Moderate inflation.

RECESSION!!

THE REST OF EUROPE: NEGATIVE INDICATORS: Slight drop in the

production

POSITIVE INDICATORS: Lower interest rates

SMALL DECREASE IN GROWTH

1. THE UNITED STATES: GDP Decline (-), Increased unemployment (-), Lower interest rates (+) and Moderate inflation (+) ; Financial Problems (-); Decreased consumption (-)

2. JAPAN: GDP Decline (-); Depressed private consumption (-); Decrease in exports (-); Very Low inflation (+); Lower interest rates (+).

3. CHINA: Slight decrease in consumption and production (?); Lower interest rates (+); Moderate inflation (+)

4. THE REST OF ASIA: Slight drop in production; Lower interest rates (+) and Moderate inflation (+); Increased Expendidure Public (+).

5. SOUTH AMERICA: Good GDP; Moderate inflation (+); Mild signs of slowing.

ANALYSIS OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY- ECONOMY IN OTHER ZONES -

RECESSION!!

RECESSION!!

SMALL DECREASE IN GROWTH

SMALL DECREASE IN GROWTH

SINGS OF DECREASE IN

GROWTH