Analysis of Insurance Premiums and Payouts for 1983-1984 ...

U.S. Departmentof Transportation

National HighwayTraffic SafetyAdministration

DOT HS 807 323 August 1988

Final Report

Analysis of Insurance Premiumsand Payouts for 1983-1984 DesignatedHigh Theft Rate Passenger Cars

This document is available to the public from the National Technical Information Service, Springfield, Virginia 22161.

The United States Government does not endorse productsor manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers' names appearonly because they are considered essential to the objectof this report.

1. R-port No.

DOT MS 807 323

2. Governm^df Accesiiun No*

4. Titte and Subtitle

Analysis of Insurance Premiums and Payoutsfor 1983-1984 Designated High Theft Rate

_ Pass_erig_e_r__C_a_r_s__ ^ __7. Author's)

M. Yedlin, T. Levi

?. Performing Organisation Mtjmts end Address

KLD Associates, Inc.300 BroadwayHuntington Station, NY 11746

12. Sponsoring Agency Homo cant! Address

Nat ional Highway Traffic Saf ety Admini s trat :i.onDepartment of TransportationWashington, DC. 20590

l i iCHNICAl RfcPOKI ilANOARD TITLt: PAGE

3. Recipient's Ctitoloc) No.

5. ttvpor} Dote

August :i9886. Performing Orguni ztiSion C

£*. IVrfotming Ofgoriization Report No,

TR-212

11. Contract nr Gron> No.

DTNII2 2,:-0 6•-C- 0603j313. i ype nf Report ond Period Cowersd

Final ReportSept. 1986-Aug: 1988

14. Sponsoring Agency Code

3S. Supplementary Note*

Contract Technical Monitor: Mr,, Warren LaHeist NPP-10

16. Abstract

Insurance records were obtained for claims involving thefts of auto-mobiles which occurred during calendar years 1983 and 1984. Theseclaim records were analyzed to identify recovery rates for stolenvehicles and insurance losses due to automotive theft.

This information will ultimately be compared with similar data fromlater years as part of an effort to assess the impact of the theftdeterrent provisions of the Motor Vehicle Theft, Law Enforcement Actof 1984,,

17. Key Words

Motor Vehi cle Theft Law EnforcementAct of 1984, insurance c 1 ainis ,vehicle recoveries/ payouts, auto-mobile theft

19. Security Clossif. (of this report)

Unclassified

Form DOT F 1700.7 Co-69j

18. Distribution StatementThis document is available to theU.S. public through the NationalTechnical Information Service,Springfield, VA 2 2161

20, Security Classif. (of this 21- No. of Pages 22. Prica

PREFACE

The data base used to conduct this study was provided throughthe cooperation of the insurance industry. In respect for theparticipants desire for confidentiality, we refrain from individualacknowledgements and express our appreciation to the officers andstaff of all participating organizations.

iii

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Over the last two decades, the problem of automobile theft, hascontinued to increase and evolve from a problem of teenagejoyriding to a highly professional adult crime. A growing marketfor stolen parts has led to an increase in the number of vehicleswhich are stolen and dismantled for their parts. By the early1980's, it was estimated that this problem cost Americansapproximately four billion dollars annually.

To address the growing problem of automobile theft, Congressenacted the Motor Vehicle Theft Law Enforcement Act of 1984 (PublicLaw 98-547). This legislation added a new Title VI to the MotorVehicle Information and Cost Savings Act which required theDepartment of Transportation to promulgate a Theft PreventionStandard for selected passenger cars exhibiting high theft rates.

This standard became effective for selected 1987 and latermodels and requires automobile manufacturers and manufacturers ofreplacement parts to affix a unique identification number on majorvehicle components. This labelliny is intended to facilitate lawenforcement efforts to prosecute criminals who are involved in thetheft and dismantling of automobiles and serve as a deterrent toauto thieves.

The Theft Act also requires the Department of Transportationto evaluate the effectiveness of the Theft Prevention Standard andassess whether the standard should be extended to other classes ofmotor vehicles. The results of this evaluation must be reportedto Congress by October 1990,

To comply with this reporting requirement, the NationalHighway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is developing a database of insurance claim information for motor vehicles stolenduring the six year period from 1983 through 1988. This databasewill include, information from seven major insurance companies anddescribes motor vehicle thefts, recoveries, insurance losses dueto vehicle theft and premiums charged to consumers for theftcoverage.

As part of the evaluation effort, insurance claim data forpre-standard 1983-1986 vehicles will be compared with similar datafor post-standard 1987-1988 vehicles.

This report describes the initial development of the insuranceclaim data base. During this stage, claim data was obtained fromone company and analyzed. This data described vehicle thefts whichoccurred during calendar years 1983 and 1984 and includes theftsof current model year, one and two year old vehicles.

An analysis of the 1983 and 1984 claim data provides the basisto examine theft claim patterns independent of any influence of theTheft Prevention Standard. The study thus lays the groundwork for

a future comparative analysis of pre and post standard theft claimdata.

An examination of the theft claim samples for 1983 and 1984reveals a recovery rate of 76% for insured vehicles stolen in 1983and a recovery rate of 77% for vehicles stolen in 1984.

Recovery rates observed in the insurance claim samples aresubstantially higher than those recorded by the U.S. Department ofJustice. Justice Department figures suggest a recovery rate of52.8% during 1983, whereas the insurance sample for the same periodindicates a recovery rate of 76%. The difference between thesefigures reflect the following factors:

1. Justice Department figures include both insured and non-insured vehicles whereas the insurance claim figuresinclude only vehicles with theft coverage.

2. Justice Department figures include thefts and recoveriesregardless of the age of the vehicle. The insuranceclaim sample expressly includes only thefts andrecoveries of current model year, one and two-year oldvehicles. Only vehicles in these age categories will beequipped with labelled parts at the time that NHTSA mustevaluate the effectiveness of the labelling program.

These factors suggest that older vehicles and those withouttheft coverage exhibit a substantially poorer rate of recovery thannewer vehicles and those with theft coverage. This result seemsto suggest that older vehicles are more likely to be stolen anddismantled for their parts than newer vehicles. Therefore, anyfuture increase in recovery rates which is observed in theinsurance claim samples may be indicative of even greater increasesin the population as a whole.

The average payment for a theft claim expressed in 1988dollars was found to be $5,597 in the 1983 sample and $5,750 in the1984 sample. Approximately 60% of the claims in each sampleexhibited claim costs below the average while 52% of the claimsexhibited payouts under $4,000.

Twenty-two percent of all recoveries in the 198 3 sample and21% of all recoveries in the 1984 sample were total losses.

If the Theft Prevention Standard is effective in reducing thetheft and dismantling of vehicles, it could be expected that theproportion of recovery claims classified as total losses mightdecrease below the 22%-23% range observed in the 1983-1984 samples.

Vehicles which were recovered intact comprised 10% of therecoveries in both che 1983 and 1984 samples.

For purposes of this analysis, a recovery was classified asintact if the vehicle was recovered without damage or the claim

VI

payment (after deductible) was less than $100 based on 1988costs. The average claim payment (repair cost) for non-intactrecoveries was in the range of $4,500-$4,600 (adjusted forinflation) based on the 1983 and 1984 samples.

If the mandatory labelling of parts encourages a reduction inthe number of automobiles stolen to provide parts, it might beexpected that insurance claim samples for calendar years after theimplementation of the parts labelling requirements (i.e. after1986) would exhibit:

o A higher proportion of intact recoveries than the 1983 and1984 samples.

o Lower repair costs for non-intact recoveries than thoseexhibited in 1983 and 1984.

o Higher recovery rates than the 76% - 77% range exhibitedin 1983-1984.

o Average theft claim payments (adjusted for inflation) whichare less than the $5,600-$5,800 figures exhibited in 1983-1984 claim samples.

Recovery claims were stratified as to whether payment occurredprior or subsequent to recovery. Recoveries which occurred priorto settlement accounted for 92% of all recoveries in the 1983sample and 93% of all recoveries in the 1984 sample.

The high proportion of recoveries prior to settlement reflectsthe operating procedures of the insurance company which suppliedthese samples and their time frame for settling claims.Approximately 50% of the claims with recovery prior to settlementwere settled within 3 0 days of the report of vehicle theft.Approximately 85%-90% of these claims were settled within 90 days.

The Theft Act required that 1983 and 1984 theft rates be usedto select the high theft rate car lines subject to the partlabelling requirements for 1987 models.

This study investigated whether any other differences existedbetween the 1983-1984 high theft rate lines and other lines whichwere excluded from the standard in 1987. Therefore, the claimsamples were stratified into ancestors of lines subject to thestandard and ancestors of lines excluded from the standard.

The average recovery rates for these two groups were found tobe tfc.2 same in both the 1983 and 1984 samples with 95% confidence.Thus, it is possible that any changes detected in recovery ratesbetween these two groups in 1987 (and later) claim samples mayreflect an effect of the Theft Prevention Standard.

The ancestors of car lines excluded from the standardexhibited theft claim costs which were 3 0% cheaper in 1983 and 19%

Vll

cheaper in 1984 than average theft claim costs for ancestors ofvehicles included in the standard.

Therefore, designated high theft car lines not only werestolen more frequently but also cost insurers more per theft claim.These higher insurer payments reflected the fact that the hightheft lines selected for the standard were also significantly moreexpensive to purchase in 1983 and 1984 than models excluded fromthe standard. These results suggest that any decrease in theftrates for the models subject to the standard may cause even greaterproportion decreases in insurance payouts.

viii

TABLE_OF_JCONTENTS

Section

1.1.11 . 1 . 11 . 1 . 21 . 1 . 2 . 1

1.2

1 . 2 . 1

1 . 2 . 21 . 2 . 3

1.31.4

2 .2 - 12 . 2

2 . 2 . 1

2 . 2 . 2

2 . 2 . 3

2 . 2 . 4

2 . 2 . 5

2 . 2 . 6

2 . 2 . 7

3 .

REFERENCES

INTRODUCTIONBackground

Legislative ActionActions Required by the Theft. Act

Insurance Industry RequirementsDepartment of TransportationRequirements

NHTSA Actions in Response toLegislation

Selection of Covered Parts andLabel1ing RequirementsSelection of High Theft LinesSelection of Insurer ReportingRequirements and Subject Insurers

Role "of This StudyData Base Characteristics

DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATIONDevelopment of Claim Data BaseAnalysis of 1983-1984 Theft ClaimBase

Examination of Theft and RecoveryDataExamination of Intact,In-Whole/Iri~Part RecoveriesExamination of Total LossRecoveriesExamination of Recoveries Priorto SettlementExamination of Intact RecoveriesPrior to SettlementExamination of Distribution ofTheft LossesStatistical Analyses of Recoveryand Payout Data

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

112•33

4

6

66

81214

1616

17

19

29

38

47

56

66

84

97

103

IX

LIST OF TABLES

No. Title Page

1 Parts Subject to Identification LabellingRequirements 7

2 Lines Subject to Theft Prevention Standard 9

3 Insurer Reporting Requirements of Motor VehicleTheft Law Enforcement Act of 1984 13

4 Thefts and Recoveries During 1983 20

5 Thefts and Recoveries During 1984 24

6 Stratification of Recoveries: Intact,In-Whole/In-Part, During 1983 30

7 Stratification of Recoveries: Intact,In-Whole/In-Part, During 1984 34

8 Stratification of In-Whole/In-Part Recoveries:Total Loss Recoveries During 1983 39

9 Stratification of In-Whole/In-Part Recoveries:Total Loss Recoveries During 1984 43

10 Stratification of Recoveries: RecoveriesPrior to Settlement During 1983 48

11 Stratification of Recoveries: RecoveriesPrior to Settlement During 1984 52

12 Stratification of Recoveries Prior toSettlement: Intact Recoveries During 1983 57

13 Stratification of Recoveries Prior toSettlement: Intact Recoveries During 1984 61

14 Make/Model Identification Codes for PayoutDistribution Tables 67

15 Distribution of Theft Losses by Dollar ValuesDuring 1983 72

16 Distribution of Theft Losses by Dollar ValuesDuring 1984 77

17 New Car Prices, Thefts and Recoveries During1983 - Models Subject to the Standard in 1987 85

LIST OF TABLES

No. Title Page

18 New Car Prices, Thefts and Recoveries During1983 - Models Not Subject to the Standardin 1987 87

19 New Car Prices, Thefts and Recoveries During1984 - Models Subject to the Standard in 1987 90

2 0 New Car Prices, Thefts and Recoveries During1984 - Models Not Subject to the Standardin 1987 92

LIST OF FIGURES

No. Title Page

1 Distribution of theft claims by dollar values 82

2 Cumulative distributions of theft claims by-dollar values 83

3 Percentage Breakdown of Recoveries 98

4 Percentage Breakdown of Recoveries by SettlementDate 99

XI

1• INTRODUCTION

This document constitutes the final report for researchperformed by KLD Associates, Inc. for the National Highway TrafficSafety Administration (NHTSA) under Contract DTNH22-86-C-6030.

This project represents the first stage in an effort todevelop a database of insurance claim information that will beutilized by the NHTSA in its efforts to evaluate the effectivenessof the Motor Vehicle Theft Law Enforcement Act of 1984 in reducingautomotive theft.

In recognition of the growing problem of automotive theft,Congress enacted legislation requiring the Department ofTransportation to promulgate a Theft Prevention Standard forselected passenger cars with high theft rates. This standardrequires automobile manufacturers and manufacturers of replacementparts to affix a unique Vehicle Identification Number (VIN) onmajor vehicle components. This labelling is intended to facilitatelaw enforcement efforts to prosecute criminals who are involved inthe theft and dismantling of automobiles and serve as a deterrentto the theft of motor vehicles.

As a. part of the legislation, Congress has required the NHTSAto report on the effectiveness of the Theft Prevention Standardincluding specific recommendations for the future continuation ofthis standard.

To comply with this reporting requirement, the NHTSA isdeveloping a database of insurance claim information whichidentifies the thefts and recoveries of motor vehicles as well asthe losses incurred by insurers due to theft and the premiumscharged to consumers for theft coverage.

This report describes the initial development of thisinsurance claim database. In this stage, insurance claims forvehicles stolen during calendar years 1983 and 1984 have beenobtained and analyzed. This analysis depicts the problem ofautomotive theft as reflected in insurance data prior to theimplementation of the Theft Prevention Standard.

1.1 Background

Over the last 2 0 years, the profile of automotive thefthas changed dramatically. In 19 60, theft was considered to beprimarily a juvenile problem with approximately 94% (1_) of theftsattributed to "joyriders". In the 1980rs, motor vehicle theft hasbecome an adult crime which is increasingly professional in nature.Examples of this problem include (1):

• By 1982, the percent of juveniles (18 and under) arrestedfor auto theft had dropped to 3 4.6%.

1

® The recovery rate of stolen motor vehicles dropped to 52.8%in 1983 compared to 86% in 1967.

m The solution rate for motor vehicle theft declined to 12.8%in 1982 and further decreased in 1983.

® Approximately 50% of all larcenies reported to lawenforcement officials involved the theft of a motorvehicle, its contents or its parts.

These statistics translate into one theft of a motor vehicle,its contents or parts every 31 seconds. The cost of these theftsto Americans has been estimated at $4 billion per year.

Motor vehicle theft is perceived by criminals as a low risk,high profit crime. Police and other agencies have been unable totrack missing vehicles since many are "chopped." into componentparts which become untraceable. Such dismantling of vehiclesfrustrates police efforts for arrests and minimizes the risks tocriminals of prosecution and punishment.

There is a growing market for stolen parts which hascontributed to the stealing and "chopping" of vehicles. "Chop"shops can often deliver parts overnight, stealing to order thenecessary parts, whereas legitimate replacement parts could takeweeks to receive from manufacturers. Besides these time savings,chop shops can also deliver parts already assembled, therebydecreasing labor costs to repair facilities. Garage owners canprofit from these savings since they can charge the same price fora part whether it is legitimate or stolen.

1.1.1 Legislative Action

As a result of these problems, Congress enactedthe Motor Vehicle Theft Law Enforcement Act of 1984. In an effortto address the chop shop problem, the law requires manufacturersto label certain parts on high theft vehicles. This facilitateslaw enforcement efforts to trace and recover stolen vehicles andparts as well as arrest and prosecute the criminals responsible.

The legislation also enacted criminal penalties for alteringVehicle Identification Numbers (VIN's) and for possessing,trafficking, importing or exporting stolen vehicles.

The purposes stated by Congress for this legislation were:

1) To provide for the identification of certain motorvehicles and their major replacement parts to impede motorvehicle thefts.

2) To augment Federal criminal penalties imposed upon personstrafficking in stolen motor vehicles.

3) To encourage decreases in premiums charged consumers formotor vehicle theft insurance.

4) To reduce opportunities for exporting or importing motorvehicle and off-highway mobile equipment.

Section 101(a) added a new Title VI to the Motor VehicleInformation and Cost Savings Act (15 US 1901), requiring theDepartment of Transportation to promulgate a Theft PreventionStandard for passenger cars with high theft rates. This is amiiiimum performance standard relating to the identification of newmotor vehicle parts and major replacement parts.

1.1.2 Actions Required by the Theft Act

The Theft Act calls for specific actions by.veral groups including:

• Automobile manufacturers (Original Equipment manufacturersand Manufacturers of Replacement Parts).

• The Automobile Insurance Industry

@ The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)and Secretary of Transportation.

Under the Theft Act, manufacturers are held responsible forinscribing or affixing the appropriate identification numbers forthe affected parts and car lines.

1.1.2.1 Insurance Industry Requirements

The insurance industry is required toprovide information to the Secretary of Transportation underSection 612 of the Theft Act. The following information islequired to be reported annually:

1) The theft and recovery (in whole or in part) of motorvehicles.

2) The number of vehicles which have been recovered intact.

3) The rating rules and plans, such as loss data and ratingcharacteristics, used by insurers to establish premiumsfor comprehensive insurance coverage for motor vehicles.Also to be included is the basis for such premiums andpremium penalties for those motor vehicles considered asmore likely to be stolen.

4) The actions taken by insurers to reduce premiums includingchanges in rate levels for automobile comprehensivecoverages due to a reduction in thefts of motor vehicles.

5) The actions taken by insurers to assist in deterring orreducing thefts of motor vehicles.

6) Other information as required by the Secretary ofTransportation to administer this title and produce thereport and findings required by this title.

The first insurer reports were submitted in 1987 coveringcalendar year 1985.

1.1.2.2 Department of Transportation Requirements

Under the Title VI Theft PreventionStandard, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration hasbeen given the responsibility to:

m Select the parts which are to be marked with theappropriate identification numbers.

• Select the high theft lines which are to be covered by therequirement.

« Establish the performance criteria for inscribing oraffixing the appropriate identification numbers.

• Specify the manner and form for compliance certificationand who will be authorized to certify compliance.

• Grant exemptions to insurers and small rental and leasingcompanies which qualify under Section 612, so that theyare not subject to the insurer reporting requirements.

« Grant an exemption from the standard if a line of vehiclesis manufactured with an anti-theft device which isdetermined to most likely be as effective as the standardin deterring theft.

Under Section 614 of the legislation, the Secretary ofTransportation is required to submit two reports to Congress onMotor Vehicle Theft. The first report was completed by NHTSA inOctober 1987 (2_) and describes the impact of automotive theft onthe insurance industry during calendar year 1985.- This timeframe preceded the implementation of the Theft Prevention Standard.

A second report is required to be submitted to Congress inOctober 1990. This report will provide an extensive evaluation ofthe effectiveness of the Motor Vehicle Theft Prevention Standardincluding recommendations to Congress to either:

• Continue the standard without change.

® Modify the standard to include fewer passenger car lines.

« Modify the standard to include other classes of motorvehicles, such as trucks, vans and motorcycles.

• Terminate the standard.

As required by subsection 614 b, the report shall alsoinclude:

A) The methods and procedures used by public and privateentities for collecting, compiling and disseminatinginformation concerning the theft and recovery of motorvehicles including:

1) The accuracy, reliability and timeliness of the data.2) How such information can be improved.

B) Data on the number of motor vehicles stolen and recoveredannually compiled by vehicle class, make and line.

C) The extent to which motor vehicles stolen annually aredismantled or exported.

D) A description of the market for such stolen parts.

E) Information concerning costs to manufacturers and carpurchasers in complying with the standard, as well as thedollar benefits of the standard and the extent to whichthese benefits exceed costs.

F) The experience of Federal, State and local officials inmaking arrests and successfully prosecuting violators.

G) Information concerning comprehensive premiums charged byinsurers including any increase in these premiums chargedbecause a vehicle is a likely candidate for theft. Alsothe extent to which the standard may have led to reducedcomprehensive premiums or alleviated premium increases.

H) The adequacy and effectiveness of Federal and State lawsaimed at preventing the distribution and sale of used'parts removed from stolen vehicles.

I) An assessment of whether the identification of parts forclasses other than passenger cars would be beneficial.

J) Any other information available to the Secretaryconcerning the impact of the Act.

1•2 NHTSA Actions in Response to Legislation

As empowered under the Motor Vehicle Theft LawEnforcement Act of 1984, the NHTSA promulgated a series of rulesto implement the Theft Prevention Standard. These rulesidentified:

# The parts which must be marked and the labellingrequirements.

• The high theft lines which are covered by the requirement.

9 The annual insurer reporting requirements and the insurerswho are subject to these requirements.

Each of these rulemaking activities and their results aredescribed in the sections which follow.

In addition to these activities, the NHTSA Office of StandardsEvaluation began to gather information to provide an extensiveevaluation of the effectiveness of the legislation as required forthe October 1990 report to Congress.

1.2.1 Selection of Covered Parts and LabellingRequirements

In October 1985, the NHTSA added a new Part 541to Title 49 of the Code of Federal Regulations establishing theVehicle Theft Prevention Standard (3_) . The Standard identified theperformance requirements for inscribing or affixing identificationnumbers onto original and replacement parts of vehicle lines withhigh theft rates. This rule also specified fourteen parts whichare subject to these labelling requirements. These parts areidentified in Table 1.

In its selection process, the NHTSA sought to increase therisks for chop shop operators for their most potentially profitableparts. The NHTSA also indicated that it would be inconsistent withthe purposes of the Theft Act to include front doors and excluderear doors from the standard and thus allow these doors to bestolen and fenced with minimal risk.

Thus, the VIN marking requirements apply to twelve majorcomponents of two door vehicles and fourteen major components offour door vehicles.

1.2.2 Selection of High Theft Lines

The Theft Act defined three categories of carlines as high theft lines for purposes of the Theft PreventionStandard. These categories includes

Table 1. Parts Subject to Identification Labelling Requirements

1) Engine2) Transmission3) Right front fender4) Left front fender5) Hood6) Right front door7) Left front doorC) Right rear door9) Left rear door

10) Front bumper11) Rear bumper12) Right rear quarter panel13) Left rear quarter panel14) Decklid, tailgate or hatchback

1) Existing lines that had a theft rate exceeding the mediantheft rate in 1983 and 1984.

2) New lines likely to have a theft rate exceeding the mediantheft rate.

3) Existing or new lines that had a theft rate below themedian rate, but had a majority of major parts which areinterchangeable with lines whose theft rate exceeded oris likely to exceed the 1983 and 1984 median theft rate.

Existing lines were defined as lines first produced beforeJanuary 1, 1983.

The Theft Act also directed the Department of Transportationto compile and publish theft rate listings for model year 1983 andlater car lines offered for sale in the United States. The initiallisting was published in November of 1985 for model years 1983 and1984 and covered 130 car lines. It also set the median theft ratefor car lines subject to the Standard at 3.2712 thefts per 1,000vehicles produced.

The requirements for labelling automotive parts becameeffective for 1987 model year vehicles. In April of 1986, NHTSAselected the 1987 car lines subject to these labellingrequirements. Existing lines were selected on the basis of actualtheft data. New lines were selected according to definedprocedures (4_) . Several of the car lines initially selected werefound to be equipped with anti-theft devices and were subsequentlyexempted from the standard in November 1986.

The final list of car lines which were required to includelabelled parts during the 1987 model year are presented in Table2.

1.2.3 Selection of Insurer Reporting Requirements andSubject Insurers

In January 19 87, the NHTSA promulagted a finalrule (5.) which defined the insurer reporting requirements underSection 612 of the Theft Act and identified 31 insurers who weresubject to these reporting requirements. The information submittedby insurers under this rule is intended to aid NHTSA in itsresponsibility to publish insurance information in a form thatWould be helpful to the public, the law enforcementcommunity and the Congress.

The insurer reports also provide the NHTSA with informationneeded to prepare the 1987 and 199 0 evaluation reports for Congressas required in Section 614 of the legislation.

Table 2. Lines Subject to Theft Prevention Standard

Manufacturer

BMW

Chrysler

Ferrari

Ford

General Motors

3-Carline5-Carline6-Carline7-Carline

Chrysler Executive. Sedan/LimousineChrysler Fifth Avenue/NewportChrysler LaserChrysler LeBaron/Town & CountryChrysler LeBaron GTSDodge AriesDodge ConquestDodge DaytonaDodge DiplomatDodge LancerDodge 600Plymouth CaravellePlymouth Gran FuryPlymouth Reliant"Q" Car-Mondial 8308328

Ford MustangFord ThunderbirdMercury CapriMercury CougarLincoln ContinentalLincoln MarkLincoln Town CarMerkur ScorpioMerkur XR4TI

Buick ElectraBuick LeSabreBuick RivieraCadillac DeVilleCadillac EldoradoCadillac SevilleChevrolet CamaroChevrolet Nova

Table 2. Lines Subject to Theft Prevention Standard(continued)

Manufacturer

General Motors

Honda

Jaguar

Maserati

Mazda

Mercedes-Benz

Mitsubishi

Porsche

Reliant

Saab

Subaru

Subject Lines

Oldsmobile Delta 88Oldsmobile 98Oldsmobile ToronadoPontiac BonnevillePontiac FieroPontiac Firebird

Acura Legend

XJXJ-6XJ-40

BiturboQuattroporte

GLC626

19 0 D/E300 D/E300 SDL380 SEC/500 SEC380 SEC/500 SEL380 SL420 SEL560 SEL560 SEC560 SL

CordiaTredia

911928

SSI

9009000

XT

10

Table 2. Lines Subject to Theft Prevention Standard(Concluded)

Manufacturer

Toyota

Volkswagen

Subject Lines

CamryCelicaCorolla/Corolla SportMR2Starlet

Audi QuattroVolkswagen CabrioletVolkswagen RabbitVolkswagen Scirocco

11

An initial list of the insurance reporting requirements wasspecified by Congress in the legislation as indicated in Section1.1.2.1 of this report. Under the authority given to NHTSA indeveloping its final rule, one additional reporting requirementwas added to assist the agency in satisfying its requirement todetermine whether anti-theft devices are as effective as partsmarking in deterring and reducing vehicle thefts.

Considering the Congressional intent of the insurer reportingrequirements, the agency formulated its reporting rule so that:

1) Insurers are required to report only information essentialto the purposes of the Theft Act.

2) The costs of time and money imposed upon the insurers tosupply information should be kept to the minimum necessaryto satisfy the need for information.

3) To the maximum extent possible, insurers should reportdata already gathered for their own purposes. Thegeneration of new data could be justified only if thisdata was explicitly required by Section 612 of thelegislation.

Given these considerations, the final rule requires thatonly theft and recovery data be stratified according to model, makeand line. Loss and rating information are to be provided to theNHTSA in the same categories used by the insurers for their ownpurposes. This approach imposes the minimum burden on the insurersbecause they do not have to arrange data in a new format.

The actual reporting requirements under the NHTSA's final ruleare presented in Table 3.

By the end of January 1987, the first insurer reports werefiled with the NHTSA Office of Rulemaking covering calendar year1985. Many of the individual insurance companies designated theNational Automobile Theft Bureau (NATB) as their reportinginstrument to comply with these requirements. The information inthese reports was reviewed and analyzed by the Office of Rulemakingand was incorporated in NHTSA1s October 1987 report. Insurerreports for each calendar year after 1985 are due approximately 10months after the year has concluded.

1.3 Role of This Study

In addition to the NHTSA's responsibilities and actionsdescribed in the previous sections, the Agency must also submit toCongress its evaluation of the Theft Prevention Standard along withrecommendations covering the future of the Standard. The purposeof the Theft Act was not only to deter automotive theft but also

12

Table 3. Insurer Reporting Requirements of Motor VehicleTheft Law Enforcement Act of 198 4

1. Total thefts and recoveries of insured vehicles duringthe reporting period, broken down into make, model, and line foreach vehicle type, and the use made by the insurer of thisinformation;

2. The rating rules and plans used by the insurer toestablish comprehensive insurance premiums and premium penaltiesfor motor vehicles considered by the insurer as more likely to bestolen, broken down into the risk groupings the insurer uses forits purposes;

3. The actions taken by the insurer to reduce comprehensiveinsurance premiums because of a reduction in vehicle thefts;

4. Information about any discounts the insurer offers forvehicles equipped with antitheft devices, including the number ofsuch discounts and thefts and recoveries of vehicles that receivedsuch discounts; and

5. The insurer's actions to assist in deterring and reducingvehicle thefts.

13

to encourage decreases in the comprehensive premiums charged formotor vehicle theft insurance. Therefore the NHTSA's evaluationmust examine both issues of theft rates and recoveries as well asinsurance premiums and claim losses.

As part of the evaluation, it is necessary to gather andexamine insurance data covering several years both before and afterthe part labelling requirements took effect. This would includedata for the pre-standard period 1983 through 1986 as well as post1986 data.

Under this project, the development of such a data base ofinsurance claim information was begun. Under this initial phaseof development, the project focused on obtaining and summarizingclaim data on vehicle thefts which occured during calendar years1983-1984.

For purposes of evaluating the Theft Prevention Standard, itis important to consider theft data as far back as 1983 since thefirst lines subjected to the parts labelling requirements in modelyear 1987, were selected on the basis of their 1983 theft rates.

The 1983-1984 theft data obtained for this project willeventually be integrated with similar data which will be obtainedfor other model years so that it will be possible to examinedifferences in insurance theft claim patterns before and after theTheft Prevention Standard took effect.

Even before data is available for the post-standard period,an examination of the 1983-1984 data is useful to identify thevariation which exists in the claim data independent of anyinfluence of the Theft Prevention Standard.

Thus, the initial development of the insurance claim data baseperformed in this study comprises an important component of NHTSA'soverall effort to evaluate the effectiveness of the TheftPrevention Standard.

1.4 Data Base Characteristics

The data base being developed for the evaluation of theTheft Prevention Standard includes insurance claim information onvehicle thefts, recoveries and payouts for theft losses. It willalso include comprehensive premiums charged to insure selectedlines at various geographic locations.

Thus, this insurance claim data base contains detailedinformation that supplements the information that insurers arerequired to provide in their annual reports to NHTSA under Section612 of the Theft Act.

14

Besides the additional detail, this supplementary data basealso considers claims as far back as 1983 whereas Section 612 didnot require any insurer reporting information for thefts prior to1985.

It is expected that the NHTSA will consider information bothfrom the annual insurer reports and the supplementary claim database to prepare its evaluation of the Theft Prevention Standard.

The information for the supplementary detailed claim data baseis being furnished by a limited number of major insurers who arevoluntarily cooperating with the NHTSA in providing important datafor- the evaluation of the Theft Prevention Standard.

At the time this report was written, theft, recovery andpayout data had been obtained from one of these insurers and wasprocessed by KLD Associates. Detailed claim data is also beingsupplied by six other major insurers for calendar years 1983-1986.T" is data will also include information on premiums chargedjnsumers for comprehensive coverage. Thus, the data base

described in this report is in the process of being expanded toinclude new information. A separate report will be forthcoming todescribe this next state of development of the insurance claim database.

15

2. DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

This section of the report provides a description of theelements included in the first stage of the insurance claim database. It also presents the results of an investigation of the datato quantify the thefts, recoveries and insurance payouts forvehicles stolen in calendar years 1983-1984.

2.1 Development of Claim Data Base

The data base constructed for this project consists ofindividual insurance claim records resulting from the theft of amotor vehicle during calendar years 1983 and 1984. These claimswere all filed with a single major insurer and represent anationwide sample. This insurer's sample was especially wellsuited to the needs of this project since its theft claim recordscontained considerable detail. This detail includes the connectionof a recovery transaction to a specific theft claim paymenttransaction. Also included is the identification of repair costsfor stolen vehicles which were recovered with damage.

This level of recovery information is important to help assessthe extent to which stolen vehicles are dismantled for parts.

The theft claim data was maintained by the insurer in writtenform only. In support of NHTSA's evaluation effort, the insureragreed to permit KLD Associates to review its hand-written claimrecords and construct a computerized sample of these records.

The sample captured all theft claims of Current Model Year(CMY), one-year old and two-year old vehicles. That is, all claimsfiled with the insurer during 1983 for thefts of 1983, 1982 and1981 model year vehicles were included in the sample. Similarly,all claims for thefts of 1984, 1983 and 1982 model year vehiclesfiled during 1984 were included.

The decision to construct the sample of claims for CMY, oneand two-year old vehicles was made recognizing that only data forpost-standard vehicles in these age categories will be availablewhen the final analysis must be performed for NHTSA's evaluationreport to Congress.

For each selected motor vehicle theft claim, the followinginformation was entered into the computerized data, base:

e Claim number• Date case was openede Date case was closede Date of loss• Vehicle make<a> Model year• Vehicle Identification Number (VIN)

16

@ Date of recovery# Date of settlement& Net amount paid9 Repair cost® Disposition

2 .2 Analy-S.iS-Of_1.983-198 4. Theft Claim Data Base

The 1983 and 1984 claim samples were each examined toidentify pertinent information which would describe the number ofthefts and recoveries of motor vehicles as well as the averagepayments associated with theft claims. To ultimately apply thesesamples to a study of the effects of the part labelling program,it is important to examine the extent to which vehicles in thesesamples were stolen and dismantled for parts.

Therefore, particular emphasis was placed on examining claimsfor cases in which stolen vehicles were recovered and identifyingthe condition of recovered vehicles. In its ruling on insurerreporting requirements (5), the NHTSA defined three categories ofrecoveries depending upon whether or not major vehicle parts weremissing from the vehicle at the time of recovery. These categoriesares

1) Recovery_ Intact - A vehicle reported as stolen isrecovered with no major parts missing at the time of therecovery and with no apparent damage to the vehicle otherthan damage necessary to enter and operate the vehicle andordinary wear and tear.

2) Recovery In-Whole - A vehicle reported as stolen isrecovered with no major parts missing at the time of therecovery but with damage in addition to that sustainedduring unauthorized entry and operation. This wouldinclude vehicles stripped of other parts, wreckedvehicles, burned vehicles (with no major parts missing),etc.

3) Recovery In-Part - A vehicle reported as stolen isrecovered with one or more major parts missing at the timeof recovery. This would include vehicles stripped ofother parts, wrecked vehicles, burned vehicles, etc.

A recovery in-part would indicate a possibility that thevehicle was stolen for use by a chop shop. These classificationsof recoveries were not maintained in insurance industry data priorto 1986. However, for purposes of investigating the availablesamples of 1983 and 1984 theft claims, recoveries were classifiedas intact if the claim value was less than $100 1988 dollars or theclaim record indicated that no damage was sustained by the vehicle.A combined category of in-whole/in-part recoveries was created forall other recoveries.

17

To examine samples, the Vehicle Identification Numbercontained in each claim record was decoded to identify the make,line and model of each stolen vehicle. Each calendar year sampleof claims was then stratified by vehicle model for analysis. Thefollowing categories of information were identified for each modelfor each calendar year:

» Number of thefts and average payment per theft claim

® Percent of stolen vehicles recovered, average claim paymentper recovery

® Percent of recoveries with vehicle intact, average claimpayment per intact recovery

@ Percent of recoveries in-whole/in-part, average claimpayment per recovery in-whole/in-part

® Percent of recoveries which were total losses, averageclaim payment per total loss recovery

® Percent of recoveries which occurred prior to settlement,average claim payment for a recovery prior to settlement

® Percent of recoveries prior to settlement in which thevehicle was recovered intact, average claim payment for anintact recovery prior to settlement

<m Distribution of claim payments by dollar amount.

Tabulations were prepared for each of these items by modeland calendar year (1983, 1984) and for each sample in aggregate.These tabulations are presented and the results discussed in thesections which follow. All payment amounts shown in thesetabulations are expressed in 1988 dollars.

18

2.2.1 Examination of Theft and Recovery Data

Table 4 presents the number of theft claims andrecoveries by model for each of the 177 models found in the 1983claim sample. The percent of stolen vehicles which were recoveredis also identified by model along with the average claim paymentper theft claim and the average claim payment per recovery.Statistics for the sample in aggregate are shown at the end of thetable.

In total, the 1983 sample represents 1,449 vehicle thefts and1,105 vehicle recoveries, indicating a recovery rate of 76%. Thenumber of theft claims for a given model ranged from a low of 1 toa nigh of 71. Only 4 models exhibited more than 50 claims each.Most models exhibited fewer than 2 0 claims in this sample. Therite of recoveries for models with more than 50 claims ranged froma low of 56% to a high of 83%.

The average claim payment for the theft of a current modelaar, one-year-old or two-year-old vehicles in the 1983 sample was

H>5,597 expressed in 1988 dollars. If a stolen vehicle wasrecovered either prior or subsequent to payment of the claim, theaverage claim payment was $4,025. Based on these two averages andthe sample sizes, the average payment for a theft without recoverywas $10,647 or $6,622 more than the average payment for a theftwith recovery.

Table 5 presents similar information for claims filed in 1984.A total of 197 distinct models were identified in the 1984 sample.The 1984 sample represents 1,893 motor vehicle thefts with 1,457recoveries, indicating a recovery rate of 77%. The largest numberof thefts of vehicles of a single model was 105. Only 9 modelsexhibited more than 50 thefts in this claim sample, while mostmodels in the sample exhibited under 2 5 thefts. The rate ofrecoveries for models with more than 50 claims ranged from a lowof 69% to a high of 84%.

Based on 1988 dollars, the average claim payment for the theftof a current model year, one-year-old or two-year-old vehicle inthe 1984 sample was $5,750 compared with $5,597 in the 1983 sample.The average payment in the 1984 sample for a theft claim involvinga recovery was $4,124. Expressed in 1988 dollars, the averagepayment for a theft claim without recovery was $11,184 in the 1984sample, as compared with $10,647 in the 1983 sample. Thus theaverage payment in 1984 for a theft claim without recovery was$7,060 more than payment for a claim with recovery prior orsubsequent to settlement.

If the Theft Prevention Standard is successful in reducing thenumber of automobiles which are stolen to provide parts, then itmight be expected that similar claim samples for calendar yearsafter 1986 would exhibit:

19

Table 4: Thefts and Recoveries During 1983(Payments Expressed in 1988 Dollars)

MAKE MODEL

AMERICAN MOTORSAMERICAN MOTORSAMERICAN MOTORSAUDI(AUDIAUDI*BMW(BMW*BMW-BMWBUICKBUICK(BUICK*BUICK*BUICK*BUICK(BUICK+BUICK+BUICK+BUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKCADILLAC•CADILLAC*CADILLACCADILLAC(CADILLAC*CHEVROLET(CHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHRYSLER

(CHRYSLER(CHRYSLER(CHRYSLER(CHRYSLERDATSUNBATSUNDATSUN

CONCORDEAGLE 30SPIRIT400040W CPE OR QUATTRO 4 WD5000 & SW3201528E52817331CENTURY ESTATECENTURY LTOELECTRA LTDELECTRA PARK AVELESABRELESABRE ESTATELESABRE LTD & CUSTOREGALREGAL LTDREGAL SPRTRIVIERA LUXURYSKYHAWKSKYLARKSKYLARK LTDCIMARRONDEVILLEELDORADOFLEETWOOB BROUGWlSEVILLECAPIARO BERLINETTACAMARO SPRT CPECAPRICE CLASSICAVALIERCAVALIER 10CAVALIER C3CHEV. TRUCKCHEVETTECHEVETTE SCOOTERCITATION IICORVETTEIMPALAMALIBUKONTE CARLOCORDOBALEBARONNEW YORKER 5TH AVENEW YORKER/GRAN LEBARONNEWPORTE00SXEI0S802X

NUMBER

131116226116751131944331

31141559471716719166135122IS1011712234711

842238

Thefts

AVERAGEPAYMENT

30236536594731821444283731317394321886949513316399222617350425630515072482231272735666466035091652523983689744886513992516446305539668865604261420037427121555106083692651655243821568691948021650£027774707

NUMBER

020I1511401rrJ

55831734

. 311

25121449411111416113083921149401124611

201832

-- Recoveries

AVERAGEPAYMENT

5810

318214442772011437874

495120552024226153334256305131663414163027355089660161165236756557370539541282020S5376232793911

4261711

32117121107331428494287270110695685810480216392422813142

PERCENT

670

1001008350670

100S371100731001007877821008110050100

876569578469500

1006075100924082565067100

838284

20


HAKE

DATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUN

*DODGE•DODGEDODGE

8DQD6E*DODGE*DODGEBODGEDODGEFIATFIATFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORD»FORD*FORJ)»FQRD8M OF CANADAGHCTOYOTAHONDAHONDAHONDAHONDAHONDAISU2U

*JA6UAK 'JAGUARJEEPJEEPLANCIALANCIALINCOLNLINCOLN

#HAZDAMAZDAMAZDA*MAZDA

MODEL

310510KING CABMAXIMAPULSARSENTRASTANZAARIESARIES/CHALLENGERCHARGER/OMNI/SHELBY TURBOCOLT/608COLT/COLT VISTA/DIPLOMDIPLOMATMIRADARAM VANSPIDER 8000X 1/9ESCORTEXP 3 DR HTCHBK TURBOFAIRMONT (FUTURA) S DR SDNFAIRMONT (FUTURA) 4 DR SDNERANADA 2 DR SDNGRANADA 4 DR SDNGRANADA 4 DF; SWLTD 4 DR SDNLTD 4 DR WAGON SQUIRELTD 4 SEAT SWLTD S 4 DR HTMUST 3 DR SDN HTBK/NTCHBK/6RANADA SMUSTANG & MUSTANG II 3 DR SDN HTBKTHUNDERBIRD S DR HTPONTIAC PARISIENNE BROUGHAMINCOMPLETETRUCKACCORDCIVIC 1500 HTCHBKCIVIC 4 DR SDNCIVIC SWPRELUDE CPEPICKUP 4X2

• XJ6LXJSCHEROKEE MPV S DR WAGON/WTHA60NEER MPV 4 DR WAGONBETAZAGATOCONTINENTAL 4 DR SDN MARKLINCOLN 4 DR SDN626B2G00 TRUCKB2000/B220& TRUCKGLC

NUMBER

315184106183511133e308111111112111124

80162311111124118

e24

Thefts

AVERAGEPAYMENT

403771%6903498854446392293111380919221809128

694014042798061747730357951305003158913519ES63109105157204902880

01444

12809142196211760567113346577192637047082830821937121001719692106344622316463274679353365895

NUMBER

312164761434111121

84611111111111012412152301100014117123

Recoveries -

AVERABEPAYMENT

403771964S4838885442889229311136217922780128

6940140423@49443879742695434550031589135192863109105157204909480

1444

14219621176054531334669219263704

230821937

49622316462943587853365167

PERCENT

10010040891007010010050100801001001003367508075100100100100100100100100501001000

10010010060100331001000

10010000050100100945010075

Table 4: Thefts and Recoveries During 1983(Payments Expressed in 198B Dollars)

MAKE

MAZDAMERCEDES BENZ•MERCEDES BENZMERCEDES BENZ•MERCEDES BENZ*MERCEDES BENZ•MERCURY•MERCURY•MERCURYMERCURYMERCURYMERCURYMERCURY•MITSUBISHI•OLDSMOBILE•OLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMQBILEOLDSMOBILE+OLDSMQBILE•OLDSMOBILE•OLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEQLDSMOBILEGLDSHOBILE•QLDSMOBILEPEUGEAT•PLYMOUTHPLYMOUTHPLYMOUTH•PLYMOUTHPONTIACPONTIAC•PQNTIAC•PONTIAC•PONTIAC•PONTIAC•PONTIAC•tPONTIAC+PONTIAC+PONTIAC'PONTIACPONTIACPONTIAC•PORSCHE•PORSCHEPORSCHERENAULTRENAULT

MODEL

RX7240D a DR SDN300 DT 4 OR SDN300SD 4 U SDN380 SEC E DR CPE380SL 2 DR CPECAPRI 3 DR HTCHBKCOUBAR S DR HT XR-7COUGAR 2 DR SDNLYNXMARQUIS BROUGHAM 4 DR SDNTOPAZ 4 DR SDN GSZEPHYR 4 DR SDNCORDIA/TREDIA98 REGENCY98 REGENCY BROUGHAMCUSTOM CRUISERCUTLASS CALAISCUTLASS CIERACUTLASS CIERA BROUGHAMCUTLASS CIERA LSCUTLASS SDNCUTLASS SUPREMEDELTA 88DELTA 88 ROYALEDELTA ROYALE BROUGHAMOMEGAOMEGA BROUGHAMTORONADQ BROUGHAMSDNCARAVELLECHAMPHORIZON k TC3 CUSTOM/TURISMQRELIANT SP ED CUSTO1M0/CATALINA/PARISIENNE2000BQNNEVILLEBONNEVILLE BROUGHAMFIREBIRD T/AFIREBIRD/FIREBIRD SEFIREBIRD/FIREBIRD SE/BONNEVILLE LEGRAN PRIXGRAN PRIX BROUGHAMGRAN PRIX U h LEGRAND LEHAKSLEMANSPHOENIX9119S4 h 9S8944FUEGO E DR CPELECAR 4 DR HTCHBK

NUMBER

36)E4£i191116I11

e177412

e44336941710411142E3911555314191030

eE4S11s1

Thefts

AVERAGEPAYMENT

7S631248924508

4876677314081529S

03143366S107581106S43805822574S8088476841115194252317029784875478355573040551728706251133663968383717771999

06772428S751160671208749954956202633058237334318762215

01393647506431

NUMBER

24132014111210021373122373349312921101112910444091792711420111

— Recoveries -

AVERAGEPAYMENT

6052357724109487

140811965. «

3143265510758

58223307S08830634111519314831702978318832513336209768282870557049467787152391999

0

189074175454

239239631286281?8584

018762215

139360

6481

PERCENT

8050751000

100441001007510000

10076100751001008410010071757190501009125505067100100080808006489909050501001000

10050100


HAKE MODEL

SAABSAABSUBARUSUBARUSUBARU*TOYOTA»TOYQTA*TOYOTATOYOTATOYOlf*TQYOTA•TOYOTATJYUTATOYOTATRIUMPH* W 3WA6ON*\. XSWAGONt'^KSWAGONVDLKSWftGONVOLVOVOLVOVOLVO

BASE SERIESTURBO SERIESGLGLFSTANDARDCAMRYCELICA h SUPRACOROLLACORONACRESSIDAMR2STARLETTERCELTRUCKTR7/TR8RABBIT CONV/CABRIOLETRABBIT GOLFSCIROCCOVANAGONEDR4 DR5 DR

ER

2311113

37593522188121421371

Thefts

AVERAGEPAYMENT

3035555228344584

06371631340833386924234

537835933290620

1024539186150153

749151483079

NUMBER

2S911328453211136121021351

-- Recoveries -

AVERAGEPAYMENT

3035194716494584

06371506328163386175669

515928411750620

1024527976150153

749112853079

PERCENT

10067BE100100100767610040505072751001007110010010071100

TOTALS 1449 5597

- Mociel subject to the Theft Prevention Standard in 1987 only.+ Model subject to the Theft Prevention Standard in 1988 only.* Model subject to the Theft Prevention Standard both in 1987 and 1988.

1105 4025 76

23

Table 5: The-fts and Recoveries During 1984(Payments Expressed in 1988 Dollars)

MAKE

AUDIAUDI*BHW•BHW•BMW-BMWBUICKBUICK

*BUICK•BUICK•BUICK*BUICK•BUICK«BUICK•BUICK.*BUICK•BUICK*BUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKCADILLAC•CADILLAC•CADILLACCADILLAC

*CADILLAC•CHEVROLET•CHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHRYSLER•CHRYSLER•CHRYSLER•CHRYSLER•CHRYSLERDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUN

MODEL

40005000 & sw3201528E633CSI/533I7331CENTURY ESTATECENTURY LTDELECTRA 225 k ESTATEELECTRA LTDELECTRA PARK AVELESABRELESABRE ESTATELESABRE LTD i CUSTORE6ALREBAL LTDREGAL SPRTRIVIERA LUXURYSKYHAWKSKYHAWK LTSKYLARKSKYLARK LTDCIMARRONDEVILLEELDORADOFLEETWOOD BROUGHAMSEVILLECAMARO BERLINETTACAMARO SPRT CPECAPRICE CLASSICAVALIERCAVALIER CSCHEV. TRUCKCHEVETTECHEVETTE SCOOTERCITATION IICITATION II CPECORVETTEIMPALAMALIBUMONTE CARLOCORDOBALASER/LASER XE/DAYTONALEBARONNEW YORKER 5TH AVENEW YORKER/GRAN LEBARON200SX

230ZX3#ZX310

NUMBER

24125523101e781155341232315o

7714418815831111784526141

10514111210417162131

Thefts

AVERAGEPAYMENT

5371004386479887171971766736184056124531987855957772263405448635863222951464338823722772004659086128253769520146353938022483763951996917241028865117469

11456813262785840

04261661633786085354625069528130921913

NUMBER

238331310026501541312

2630435583616413209460342413072811894u131821

— Recoveries -

AVERAGEPAYMENT

5377069481136316009335536184056

198772412752

4054357S4690222937324338

1097S00457837160600664021899633013095I9603077343436323013228640664698£21

45973891

04261309620456085269823273236100001913

PERCENT

10075676060501001000

10086630

1007776100811000

801007182828950878782367775801006?1007506957100100679010088818667100

24

Table 5: Thefts and Recoveries During 19 4(Payments Expressed in 1988 Dollars)

MAKE

DATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUN

*D0D6E*D0B6E*D£)DGEDODGE

*DQDGE•DODGEDODGEDODGEDODGEDODGEFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORD*FORD«FORD*FORD»FORD•FORDFORDFORDFORD*FORD6H OF CANADAGMCGMCGMCHONDAHONDAHONDAHONDAHONDAHONDAISUZUISU2U

* JAGUARJEEPJEEPJEEPJEEP

MODEL

KING CABMAXIMAPULSARSENTRASTANZATRUCK REG..BED400/600ARIESARIES/CHALLENGERCHARGER/OMNI/SHELBY TURBOCOLT/600COLT/DAYTONA/DAYTONA TURBMIRADARAM 50 & ARROWRAM CHARGER 4X4RAM VANCOUNTRY SQUIRE SWESCORTEXP 3 DR HTCHBK TURBOFAIRMONT (FUTURA) 4 DR SDNFAIRMONT (FUTURA) SWGRANADA 4 DR SWLTD 4 DR SDNLTD 4 SEAT SHLTD CROWN VICTORIA 2 DR SDNLTD S 4 DR HTMUST 3 DR SDN HTBK/NTCHBK/GRANADA SMUSTANG It MUSTANG 11 2 DR SDNMUSTANG & MUSTANG II 2 DR SDN LXMUSTANG k MUSTANG II 3 DR SDN HTBKMUSTANG/GRANADA 2 DR SDNRANGER 4X2 P/IJTEMPO 2 DR SDN GLTEMPO/LASERTHUNDERBIRD 2 DR SDNPONTIAC PARISIENNE BROUGHAMINCOMPLETEMPVTRUCKACCORD

• CIVIC 1300 HTCHBKCIVIC 1500 HTCHBKCIVIC 4 DR SDNCRX, HF, SIPRELUDE CPEIMPULSE/PICKUP 4X4PICKUP 4X2XJ6LCHEROKEE MPV 2 DR WA60N/WTCHEROKEE MPV 4 DR WAGONCJ-5 MPV 2 DRWAGONER MPV 4 DR WAGON

NUMBER

44082314252843113182551043211212112263n

71131434136181144115

Thefts

AVERAGEPAYMENT

78865834435529275671616356047293318327291848

089763247168099926587141353011857724576

53592037677

05368318

1338939541197113910174337254123521101148554755045

%6969616010777556106695993292731532514842

09382

NUMBER

335619111

e26421120424664221011110126335111

1027112140131113

— Recoveries -

AVERAGEPAYMENT

877047032670203553345248

0729321888729

00

8976329

4502587126911926857

545076

535

000

31S

799119711391017433

54431235211083432293574

09580231810772099

5993302471745014842

«4351

PERCENT

7588758379504010075

67

m100670501008460100671001000

5010050100050100100100100711001003371791003333100500

100752510010060

25


MAKE

•LINCOLN•LINCOLNLINCOLN•MAZDAMAZDAMAZDA•MAZDAMAZDA•MERCEDES BENZMERCEDES BENZ

•MERCEDES BENZ•MERCEDES BENZ•MERCEDES BENZ•MERCEDES BENZ•MERCURY•MERCURY•MERCURY•MERCURYMERCURYMERCURYMERCURYMERCURYMERCURY•MITSUBISHI•QLDSMOBILE•OLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEQLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILE

+OLDSMOBILE•OLDSMOBILE•OLDSMOBILE•OLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSHOBILE

•OLDSMOBILEPEUGEAT•PLYMOUTHPLYMOUTHPLYMOUTH•PLYMOUTHiPLYMOUTHPLYMOUTH•PLYMOUTHPLYMOUTHPLYMOUTHPONTIACPONTIACPONTIAC•PONTIAC

MODEL

CONTINENTAL 4 DR SDNCONTINENTAL 4 DR SDN MARKLINCOLN 4 DR SDN626B2000 TRUCKB2000/B2200 TRUCK6LCRX7190D 4 DR SDN240D 2 DR SDN300 DT 4 DR SDN300SD 4 DR SDN330 SEL 4 DR SDN380SL E DR CPECAPRI 3 DR HTCHBKCOUGAR 2 DR HT XR-7COUGAR 2 DR SDNCOUGAR 4 DR SDNGRAND MARQUIS 2 DR SDN LSLYNXMARQUIS 4 DR SDNMARQUIS BROUGHAM 4 DR SDNZEPHYR SPORTY CPE-7CORDIA/TRED1A98 REGENCY98 REGENCY BROUGHAMCUTLASS CALAISCUTLASS CIERA BROUGHAMCUTLASS CIERA BROUGHAM/SUPR BROUGHMCUTLASS CIERA LSCUTLASS SUPREMEDELTA 88DELTA 88 RQYALEDELTA ROYALE BROUGHAMFIRENZAFIRENZA BROUGHAMOMEGA BROUGHAMTORONTO BROUGHAMSDNCARAVELLECHAMPCOLT EDL PREMIERCONQUESTGRAN FURY/CARAVELLEHORIZON & TC3 CUSTOM/TURISMORELIANT SP ED CU5TGSAPPOROVOYAGER WAGON/VAN1000/CATALINA/PARISIENNES0006000 STEBONNEV1LLE

NUMBER

341372118551

a471151411532141477432682327812311712211510414516

Thefts

AVERAGEPAYMENT

71661382S153265103313479723543634927724114921478E122202338

50591573611419037970

15471231955658062232333424725602152896137436455158086343063938025106061848049865739754923146215054702313823093160103336632771171532398

NUMBER

3202810144b013610513113121412663615571

24S023951121128213514

— Recoveries •

AVERAGEPAYMENT

716616721

4066283

31515254

142962177442338

573611418241970

33510335556580622323262235484959409039034793678252123126393

106061846301512039754737146215054702313820591061103328732771171532318

PERCENT

10050076500788405075861000

1001007510010060331001001008686868450837033891000

10010082711005010010010010080501007510010067

26

Table 5: Thefts and Recoveries During 1984(Payments Expressed in 1988 Dollars!

MAKE

"PONTIAC•POJTIAC*P0NTIAC*PONTIAC*PQNTIAC+P0NTIAC+PQNTIAC+P0NTIACPONTIACPdNTIf.:PQNTIAC«pnRSCKt*PdRSCHEPORSCHERENAULTRP JLTL...AULT.'.crtAULTRENAULT

*SAABSAABSAABSAABSUBARUSUBARU*TOYOTATOYOTA*TOYOIA•TOYOTATOYOTA

*TOYOTA*TOYOTATOYOTATOYOTAW KSWA60NVOLKSNAGON

*V0LKSWA60N*VOLKS«ASONKVOLKSWAGONVOLVOVOLVOVOLVO

HODEL

BONNEVILLE BROUGHAMF1ERO 2M4 i SE CPEFIREBIRD T/AFIREBIRD/FIREBIRD SEFIREBIRD/FIREBIRD SE/BONNEVILLE LEGRAN PRIX •GRAN PRIX BROUGHAMGRAN PRIX LJ & LEPHOENIX SE/PARISIENNE BROUGHAMPONTIAC 6000PONTIAC 6000 LE911924 & 928944181 4 DR SDNALLIANCE E DR SDNALLIANCE 4 DR SDNFUEGO 2 DR CPELECAR 2 DR HTCHBK900900SBASE SERIESTURBO SERIES?l.TURBO RXCAHRYCARGO VANCELICA & SUPRACOROLLACRESSIDAMR2STARLETTERCELTRUCKJETTAQUANTUM 2 DR/4 DRRABBIT CONV/CABRIOLETRABBIT 60LFSCIROCCO2 DR

' 4 DR5 DR

NUMBER

3216827385131341213117211111211736467181325186121531111

Thefts

AVERAGEPAYMENT

7914547257836066622734043925388010034159783643654712161638810828147

0617045031806

012060481894783724E14599370913748597173S43682915495352289611145985932711112219843013396

NUMBER

12137

2131411132011301501101110143495313121913600112060

— Recoveries -

AVERAGEPAYMENT

46575472429953945337 .2589249126691003415977921

786663881082

04512

18060

48181K3

222059935524265331867383031208630415228

45585557

2505

PERCENT

33

m818878828085100100500501001000

100710

1001000

1009208210077797210067767E100007367%550

TOTALS: 1893 5750 1457 4124 77

- Model subject to the Theft Prevention Standard in 1987 only.+ Model subject to the Theft Prevention Standard in 1988 only.* Model subject to the Theft Prevention Standard in both 1987 and

27

o Recovery rates which are higher than the 7 6-77% figureexhibited in 1983-1984

o Average payments which are below the inflation adjustedfigures of $5,600-5,800, exhibited in 1983-1984

Recovery rates observed in the insurance claim sample aresubstantxally higher than those recorded by the U.S. Department ofJustice. As observed in Section 1.1 of this report, JusticeDepartment figures suggest a recovery rate of 52.8% during 1983,whereas the insurance sample for the same period indicates arecovery rate of 76%. The difference between these figures reflectthe following factors:


2. Justice Department figures include data on vehicle theftsand recoveries regardless of the age of vehicle. Theinsurance claim sample expressly includes only thefts andrecoveries of current model year, one and two-year oldvehicles. Only vehicles in these age categories will beequipped with labelled parts at the time that NHTSA mustevaluate the effectiveness of the labelling program.

These factors suggest that older vehicles and those withouttheft coverage exhibit a substantially poorer rate of recovery thannewer vehicles with theft coverage. This result seems to suggestthat older vehicles are more likely stolen and dismantled for theirparts than newer vehicles since fewer older vehicles are recovered.Therefore any future increase in recovery rates which is observedin the insurance claim samples may be indicative of even greaterincreases in the population as a whole.

28

2.2.2 Examination of Intact, In-Whole/In-Part Recoveries

For this investigation, claims for stolen vehiclesrecovered either prior or after settlement were stratified intotwo classifications:

® Intact vehicle recoveries

» In-whole or in-part recoveries

For purposes of this examination, an intact recovery wasdefined as a claim, in which either the recovered vehicle exhibitedno damage, or the cost to repair the recovered vehicle to its pre-theft state was under $100 (based on 1988 costs) . All otherrecovery claims were classified as in-whole/in-part recoveries.

Tables 6 and 7 present the results of these stratificationsby model for the 1983 and 1984 samples respectively. These tablesindicate the number of intact recoveries and number of in-whole/in-part recoveries by model as well as the average claim payment foreach of these classifications. The tables also indicate theproportion of all vehicle recoveries which were classified asintact and the proportion of all vehicle recoveries classified asin-whole/in-part.

Of the 1,105 vehicle recoveries in the 1983 sample, (Table6), 10% or 112 recoveries were classified as intact by the abovedefinition with the remaining 90% or 993 recoveries classified asin-whole/in-part. There were no claims with intact recoveries for106 of the 177 models in the sample. The average claim payment forintact recoveries was zero for 62 models. These models accountedfor 80% of all claims with intact recoveries.

Of the 1,457 recoveries in the 1984 sample (Table 7), 10%or 146 recoveries were classified as intact with the remaining 90%or 1,311 recoveries classified as in-whole/in-part. Of the 197models in the sample, payment for an intact recovery averaged zerofor 63 models representing 68% of all claims in the sample withintact recoveries.

If the mandatory labelling of parts encourages a reduction inthe number of automobiles stolen to provide parts, it might beexpected that insurance claim samples for calendar years after 198 6would exhibit:

o A higher proportion of intact recoveries than the 10%exhibited in the 198 3 and 19 8 4 samples

o Lower repair costs (adjusted for inflation) than the$4,500-4,600 observed in the 1983 and 1984 samples forclaims involving recoveries in-whole/in-part.

29

Table fa: Stratification of Recoveries: Intact, In-Whole / In-Part, During 1983(Payments Expressed in 1988 Dollars)

HAKE

AMERICAN MOTORSAMERICAN MOTORSAMERICAN MOTORSAUDI»AUDIAUDI»BMW*BMW»BMW-BMWBUICKBUICK*BUICK*BUICK*BUICI<*BUICK»BUICK+BUICK+BUICK+FJUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKCADILLACCADILLACCADILLACCADILLACCADILLACCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLET.CHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHRYSLERCHRYSLERCHRYSLERCHRYSLERCHRYSLERDATSUNDATSUNDATSUN

MODEL

CONCORDEAGLE 30SPIRIT40004000 CPE OR QUATTRO 4 WD5000 Si SW3201528E52817331CENTURY ESTATECENTURY LTDELECTRA LTDELECTRA PARK AVELESABRELESABRE ESTATELESABRE LTD & CUSTOREGALREGAL LTDREGAL SPRTRIVIERA LUXURYSKYHAWKSKYLARKSKYLARK LTDCIMARRONDEVILLEELDORADOFLEETWOOD BROUGHAMSEVILLECAMARO BERLINETTACAMARO SPRT CPECAPRICE CLASSICAVALIERCAVALIER 10CAVALIER CSCHEV. TRUCKCHEVETTECHEVETTE SCOOTERCITATION IICORVETTEIMPALAMALIBUMONTE CARLOCORDOBALEBARONNEW YORKER 5TH AVENEW YORKER/GRAN LEBARONNEWPORT200SX210280ZX

NUMBER

0000001200200000003000100311i1310030312113102100121

Recoveries— Intact -

AVERAGEPAYMENT

00

0

0

0

070005500

0

0000000

380

000

PERCENT OFRECOVERIES

950

40

10

50

629925199

38

335018251189

5017

5113

NUMBER

02011510201355831734E81

2511144b40101031310305361938371022511191b31

RecoveriesIn-Whole / In-Part

AVERAGEPAYMENT

5810

318214442•7720125811748

49513425282422615333425630513166341418052735508966032216523675698539214349141022762463036073911

68187114816142413524419320546352971106910986972480216

413125663243


100

1001001009150

100b0100100100

m100100100%1001001005010010094989191758191100

63100675082758993911005083100100958997

Table 6; Stratification o+ Recoveries: Intact, In-Whole / In-Part, During 1983(Paynents Expressed in 1988 Dollars)

MAKE

DATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUN*D0BGE»D0DGEDODGE

»DODGE*DOtJE»DODGEDODGEDQBGFn;F!AT

FOrtDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORD*FORD*FORD*FQRDGH OF CANADA6HCTOYOTAHONUHHONDAHONDAHONDAHONDAISUZU

*JAGUARJAGUARJEEPJEEPLANCIALANCIALINCOLNLINCOLN*MAZDAMAZDAMAZDAMAZDA

MODEL

310510KING CABMAXIMAPULSARSENTRASTANZAAruiiaARIES/CHALLENGERCHARGER/OMNI/SHELBY TURBOCOLT/690COLT/COLT VISTA/DIPLOMDIPLOMATMIRADARAM VANSPIDER 8000X 1/9ESCORTEXP 3 DR HTCHBK TURBOFAIRMONT (FUTURA) S DR SDNFAIRMONT (FUTURA) 4 DR SDNGRANADA 2 DR SDNGRANADA 4 DR SDNGRANADA 4 DR SWLTD 4 DR SDNLTD 4 DR WAGON SQUIRELTD 4 SEAT SWLTD S 4 DR HTMUST 3 DR SDN HTBK/NTCHBK/GRANADA SMUSTANG & MUSTANG II 3 DR SDN HTBKTHUNDERBIRD E DR HTPONTIAC PARISIENNE BROUGHAMINCOMPLETETRUCKACCORDCIVIC 15W HTCHBKCIVIC 4 DR SDNCIVIC SWPRELUDE CPEPICKUP 4X2XJ6LXJSCHEROKEE MPV S DR WAGON/WTWAGONEER MPV 4 DR WAGONBETA2AGAT0CONTINENTAL 4 DR SDN MARKLINCOLN 4 DR SDN62b

mm TRUCKBS000/B2200 TRUCKGLC

NUMBER

0003101001100000040000000000I0000010111000000010

a000

Recoveries

— intact

AVERAGEPAYMENT

00

0

00

3?

0

0

000

0

0


1925

17

33S5

17

100

8

205033

£5

12

NUMBER

3121337514231111aI206111111111

1012411141201100013115123

RecoveriesIn-Whole / In

AVERAGEPAYMENT

403771964548478672628S92751111362171383104012S

694014042304944387974322743455003158913519286310910515720490948

1444

14219621176054943334636638525556

230821937

49829716463336587853365167

-Part


1001001008175100831001006?7510010010010010010083100100100100100100100100100100

100

10010010092100805067

100100

1007510088100100100

31

Table 6: Stratification of Recoveries: Intact, In-Whole / In-Part, During 1983(Payments Expressed in 1988 Dollars)

MAKE

MAZDAMERCEDES BEN2•MERCEDES BENZ*MERCEDES BENZ•MERCEDES BENZ*MERCEDES BENZ•MERCURY*MERCURY•MERCURYMERCURYMERCURYMERCURYMERCURY(MITSUBISHI•OLDSMOBILE•OLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEQLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEQLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILE+OLDSMOBILE•OLDSMOBILE•QLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILE*OLDSMOBILEPEUGEAT

•PLYMOUTHPLYMOUTHPLYMOUTH•PLYMOUTHPONTIACPONTIAC•PQNTIAC•PONTIAC•PONTIAC•PONTIAC•PONTIAC+PONTIAC •+PONTIAC+PONTIACPONTIACPONTIACPONTIAC•PORSCHE•PORSCHEPORSCHERENAULTRENAULT

MODEL

RX7240D 2 DR SDN300 DT 4 DR SDN300SD 4 DR SDN380 SEC 2 DR CPE380SL E DR CPECAPRI 3 DR HTCHBKCOUSAR B DR HT XR-7COUGAR E DR SDNLYNXMARQUIS BROUGHAM 4 DR SDNTOPAZ 4 DR SDN GSZEPHYR 4 DR SDNCORDIA/TREDIA98 REGENCY98 REGENCY BROUGHAMCUSTOM CRUISERCUTLASS CALAISCUTLf.SS CIERACUTLASS CIERA BROUGHAMCUTLASS CIERA LSCUTLASS SDNCUTLASS SUPREMEDELTA 83DELTA 88 ROYALEDELTA ROYALE BROUGHAMOMEGAOMEGA BROUGHAMTORONADO BROUGHAMSDNCARAVELLECHAMPHORIZON k TC3 CUSTQK/TURISMQRELIANT SP ED CUSTO1000/CATALINA/PARISIENNE2000BONNEVILLEBONNEVILLE BROUGHAMFIREBIRD T/AFIREBIRD/FIREBIRD SEFIREBIRD/FIREBIRD SE/BONNEVILLE LEGRAN PRIXGRAN PRIX BROUGHAMGRAN PRIX LJ & LEGRAND LEMANSLEMANSPHOENIX911984 fc 928944FUEG3 8 DR CPELECAR 4 DR HTCHBK

NUMBER

100000210200000110131130010000001E10200.0101201010010

Recoveries

— intact

AVERAGEPAYMENT

0

00

0

00

015000

0

000

15

0

00

0

0

0


4

50100

17

1433

50833336

11

5022100

50

11

117

100

50,

100

NUMBER

23132012

110100

e1362121

3422

463128211011117

02440

. 8178251

4101

1

RecoveriesIn-Whole / In-

AVERA6EPAYMENT

63153577

24109487

14081'3930

3143318610758

58223307943645944111103834E44755446733963H513336235968282870557049467787154792570

376574175454

26913963144730438584

18764429

13936

64S1

Part


96100100100

10050

10083100

10010086671005092676794100100891001001001001001005078

50100100

891008993100

10050

100

100

Table 6: Stratification at Recoveries: Intact, In-Whole / In-Part, During I9fcs3(Payments Expressed in 1988 Dollars)

MAKE MODEL

SAABSAABSUBARUBUBARUSUBARU*TOYOTA*TOYOTA*TOYOTATOYOTATOYOTA»TOYOTA• TOYOTATOYOTATOYOTATRIUMPH•VOLKSMAGONfvXlLKSWABON*V0LKSWA60NVOLKSWAGONVOLVOVOLVOVOLVO

BASE SERIESTURBO SERIES6LSLFSTANDARD .CAMRYCELICA h SUPRACOROLLACORONACRESSIDAMR2STARLETTERCELTRUCKTR7/TR8RABBIT CONV/CABRIOLETRABBIT GOLFSCIROCCOVANA60N2 DR4 DR5 DR

NUMBER

0020103501101100300i10

Recoveriesintact

AVERAGEPAYMENT

0

0

@11

069

00

21

00


2E

100

1111

50100

817

30

3380

NUMBER

2E71

3G54031

1IS51e7eIs41


AVERAGEPAYMENT

30351947S1E14584

6371567031663386351S

5159307821006S0

1024539876150153

1123716063679


1001007S100

100893910050

1009283100100701001006730100

TOTALS: 112 10 993 4479 90

- Model subject to the Theft Prevention Standard in 1987 only.+ Model subject to the Theft Prevention Standard in 1988 only.» Model subject to Ihe Theft Prevention Standard both in 1987 and 1988.

33

Table 7: Stratification of Recoveries! Intact, In-Whole / In-Part, During 1984(Payments Expressed in 1988 Dollars)

MAKE MODEL NUMBER

AUDIAUDI

*BMW*BMW

mm-BMWBUICKBUICK»BUICK»BUICK•BUICK*BUICK*BUICKif BUICK*BUICK»BUICK*BUICK*BUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKCADILLACCADILLACCADILLACCADILLACCADILLAC•CHEVROLET•CHEVROLETCrEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHRYSLERCHRYSLERCHRYSLERCHRYSLERCHRYSLERDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUN

40005000 & SW32015S8E633CST/533I7331CENTUkY ESTATECENTURY LTDELECTRA 325 k ESTATEELECTRA LTDELECTRA PARK AVELESABRELESABRE ESTATELESABRE LTD & CUSTOREGALRE6AL LTDREGAL SPRTRIVIERA LUXURYSKYHAWK5KYHAWK LTSKYLARKSKYLARK LTDCIMARRONDEVILLEELDORADOFLEETWOOD BROUGHAMSEVILLECAMARO BERLINETTACAMARO SPRT CPECAPRICE CLASSICAVALIERCAVALIER CSCHEV. TRUCKCHEVETTECHEVETTE SCOOTERCITATION IICITATION II CPECORVETTEIMPALAMALIBUMONTE CARLOCORDOBALASER/LASER XE/DAYTONALEBARONNEW YORKER 5TH AVENEW YORKER/6RAN LEBARONH00SX210380ZX300ZX310

R

111000110011AV

eIs00002115100010051

el000AV

811013003100

Recoveries— Intact

AVERA6EPAYMENT

000

00

00

4700

00000

0

170

0

000

00

00


5033130003310001750ftV

13S600005033£093000500833050000AV

11131000133300S3600

NUMBER

i

e7331

a90854AV

1340£9S2630S24533516413199455S41413Q,V

64701764151017S1


AVERAGEPAYMENT

107510603549836316009•335554E84506

198786893440

467136615013SES937384338

219430077SE978356177640S189%33013S58I9603077374454493013457340664698ES1

517S4447

4E61353830676085S69830S587S0100001913

ran ——~


50678310010010067900

1008380AV

87989410010010005067809197100100100951001009E6710050100100100

V

89880

10088671001007794100100

Table 7: Stratification of Recoveries: Intact, In-Whole / In-Part, During 1984(Payments Expressed in 198S Dollars)

HAKE

DATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUN

*D0DGE•DODGE*D0DGED0D6E

*DODGE«DC;JGLDODEDODGED0DFr

DC ;FO*DFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORD»FORD*FQRD»FORD•FORD*FQRDFORDFORDFORD

KFORJJ

GM OF CANADAGMC6HCGMCHONDAHONDAHONDAHONDAHONDAHONDAISUZUISUZU

* JAGUARJEEPJEEPJEEPJEEP

MODEL

KING CABMAXIMAPULSARSENTRASTANZATRUCK REG. BED400/600ATvItaARIES/CHALLENGERCHARGER/OMNI/SHELBY TURBOCOLT/600COLT/DAYTONA/DAYTONA TURBHIRADARAM 50 & ARROWRAM CHARGER 4X4RAM VANCOUNTRY SQUIRE SWESCORTEXP 3 DR HTCHBK TURBOFAIRMONT (FUTURA) 4 DR SDNFAIRMONT (FUTURA) SWGRANADA 4 DR SWLTD 4 DR SDNLTD 4 SEAT SWLTD CROWN VICTORIA 2 DR SDNLTD S 4 DR HTMUST 3 DR SDN HTBK/NTCHBK/6RANADA SMUSTANG 1 MUSTANG 11 2 DR SDNMUSTANG it MUSTANG II S DR SDN LXMUSTANG it MUSTANG II 3 DR SDN HTBKMUSTANG/GRANADA S DR SDNRANGER 4X2 P/UTEMPO 2 DR SDN GLTEMPO/LASERTHUNDERBIRD 2 DR SDNPONTIAC PARISIENIC BROUGHAMINCOMPLETEMPVTRUCKACCORDCIVIC 1300 HTCHBKCIVIC 1500 HTCHBKCIVIC 4 DR SDNCRX, HF, SIPRELUDE CPEIMPULSE/PICKUP 4X4PICKUP 4X2XJ6LCHEROKEE MPV 2 DR WAGON/WTCHEROKEE MPV 4 DR WAGONCJ-5 MPV 2 DRWAGONEER MPV 4 DR WAGON

NUMBER

0202002101210000070301001010000001000017100010000000

Recoveries- Intact

AVERAGEPAYMENT

0

64

00

000

0

0

0

0

0

34

070

0


0601100

10050025100100000001507505000

1000

1000000003300001026100000250000000

NUMBER

333617111016300120423961211001010126325111920012130131113

RecoveriesIn-Whole / In-P

AVERAGEPAYMENT

877049882670226753345248

1458721883639

3976329

450258713174192634285450151535

0

318

799119711391017633544312352110834

35884822

9580231810772798

5993302471745014842

04351

,ri

an


10094100891001000501007500

1001000

1001008510025100501000%

1000

m0

1001001001006710010010010090740

IM100100750

100100100100100

m

35

Table 7: Stratification of Recoveries: Intact, In-Whole / In-Part, During 1984(Payments Expressed in 1988 Dollars)

MAKE

•LINCOLN•LINCOLNLINCOLN*MAZDAMAZDAMAZDA

"MAZDAMAZDA

"MERCEDES BENZMERCEDES BENZ"MERCEDES BENZ*MERCEDES BENZ"MERCEDES BENZ"MERCEDES BENZ"MERCURY"MERCURY"MERCURY"MERCURYMERCURYMERCURYMERCURYMERCURYMERCURY

"MITSUBISHI"QLDSMOBILE"OLDSMOBILEOLDSHOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILE

+OLDSMOBILE"OLOSMOBILE"OLDSMOBILE"OLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEQLDSMOBILEQLDSMOBILE

"OLDSMOBILEPEUGEAT

"PLYMOUTHPLYMOUTHPLYMOUTH

"PLYMOUTH"PLYMOUTHPLYMOUTH

"PLYMOUTHPLYMOUTHPLYMOUTHPONTIACPONTIACPONTIAC"PONTIAC

MODEL

CONTINENTAL 4 DR SDNCONTINENTAL 4 DR SDN MARKLINCOLN 4 DR SDN636B20&G TRUCKBe000/B2B00 TRUCK6LCRX7190D 4 DR SDNS40D 8 DR SDN300 DT 4 DR SDN300SD 4 DR SDN380 SEL 4 DR SDN380SL £ DR CPECAPRI 3 DR HTCHBKCOUGAR 8 DR HT XR-7COUGAR E DR SDNCOUGAR 4 DR SDNGRAND MARQUIS a DR SDN LSLYNXMARQUIS 4 DR SDNMARQUIS BROUGHAM 4 DR SDNZEPHYR SPORTY CPE-7CORDIA/TREDIA99 REGENCY98 REGENCY BROUGHAMCUTLASS CALAISCUTLASS CIERA BROUGHAMCUTLASS CIERA BROUGHAM/SUPR BROUGHMCUTLASS CIERA LSCUTLASS SUPREMEDELTA 88DELTA 88 ROYALEDELTA ROYALE BROUGHAMFIRENZAFIRENZA BROUGHAMOMEGA BROUGHAMTORONADO BROUGHAMSDNCARAVELLECHAMPCOLT EDL PREMIERCONQUEST6RAN FURY/CARAVELLEHORIZON k KB CUSTOH/TURISMQRELIANT SP ED CUSTOSAPPOROVOYAGER WAGON/VANWWCATAL'lWA/PARISTENNE20006000 STEBONNEVILLE

NUMBER

100i00iI00i

a000001010<b01100

a0a301000000000000a0«0101

Recoveries- Intact

AVERAGEPAYMENT

0

54

00

00

97

0

670

30

0IS

0

0

0

0

PERCENT OFRECOVERIES It

33004007a00

333300000

1000330008580060405e4000000000000

as00020025

1MBER

aa0a?t0134501

a4I051301

ai

al3116634I3541

as80

a39511£11

a6

aI3413


AVERAGEPAYMENT

1074916781

4314283

•33935319

14314431116172338

573611418841

0503

193355565806B3075E86035484959438989057983831858184186393

106061846301518039754737146815054703313837451061103333733464

171533091


67100096100093960

10067671000

1001001000

100671001001007598100100941006095

m%1000

100100100100100100100100100100751001001008010075

36

T.ibie V: Stratification ot Recoveries: Intact, In-Whole / In-F'art, Dunn:] l%<\(Payments Expressed in 198a Dollars.i

MAKE

*P0NTIAC«P0NTIAC•PDNTIAC•PONTIAC»PONTIAC+P0NTIAC+P0NTIAC+P0NTIACPONTIACPONTIACPONTIAC•PORSCHE»PGRSCHEPORSCHERENAULTRENAULTRENAULTRENAULTRENAULT»SAABSAABSAABSAABSUBARUSUBARU*TOYOTATOYOTA*TOYOTA"TOYOTA

TOYOTA•TOYOTA•TOYOTATOYOTAGM>,VQLKSWAGQNVOLKBWA60N*VOLKSWAGONW01.KSWA60NWOLiSWAGONVOLVO 'VOLVO

VOLVO

MODEL

BONNEVILLE BROUBHAMFIERO SM4 h SE CPEFIREBIRD T/AFIREBIRD/FIREBIRD SE

FIREBIRD/FIREBIRD SE/BONNEVILLE LEGRAN PRIXGRAN PRIX BROUGHAMGRAN PRIX LJ & LEPHOENIX SE/PARISIENNE BROUBHAMPONTIAC b # 0PONTIAC 6000 LE911924 & 9SS9441SI 4 DR SONALLIANCE 2 DR SDNALLIANCE 4 DR SDNFUESO 2 DR CPELECAR E BR HTCHBK

900sBASE SERIESTURBO SERIESGLTURBO RXCAMRYCARGO VANCELICA k SUPRACOROLLA

CRESSIDAMRSSTARLETTERCELTRUCKJETTAQUANTUM 2 DR/4 DRRABBIT CQNV/CABRIOLETRABBIT 60LFSCIRQCCO'2 DR4 DR

5 DR

NUMBER

%0%0111001000010110#1%020414910(i>6e000100

s

Recoveries- Intact

AVERAGEPAYMENT

0069

0

0

00

0

0

00S37%

20

0

49


000%532500330000330

100£00%

10000180E93381?8V03215000900330

NUMBER

12137

50303111220112004010019010

s454412121311i.00102040


AVERAGEPAYMENT

46575472429953945604£6763S9626691003423957921

786663831624

5640

18*

4S181263

3108899060133194345173830813048359452S3

50145557

3734

-rart — —


1001001001009597751001(10671000

1001006700300

00

10082ft716?92839210010068851000091i000670

TOTALS: 146 10 1311

- Model subject to Theft Prevention Standard in 1987 onlv.+ Model subject to Theft Prevention Standard in 1988 only.* Model subject to Theft Prevention Standard both in 1987 and 1988.

4581

37

2.2.3 Examination of Total Loss Recoveries

This analysis examined theft claims which wereconsidered total losses by the insurer where the stolen vehicle wasrecovered either prior or subsequent to payment. These claimsconstitute a subset of the claims for in-whole/in-part recoveriesexamined in Tables 6 and 7.

Tables 8 and 9 present the number of total loss recoveryclaims by model for the 1983 and 1984 samples, respectively. Thesetables also indicate the average claim payment by model for tptalloss recoveries and the proportion of all recoveries which weretotal losses by model. Aggregate statistics for each sample areshown at the end of each table.

To facilitate comparisons between claims for total lossrecoveries and all other in-whole/in-part recoveries, the numberof claims and average payment for in-whole/in-part recoveries,shown in Tables 6 and 7 are reproduced in Tables 8 and 9.

As shown in Table 8, 22% of all recoveries were classified astotal losses in the 198 3 sample. Total loss recoveries accountedfor approximately 25% of all in-whole/in-part recoveries. Theaverage claim cost for a total loss recovery was $11,062 in 1988dollars. This figure compares with payments of $4,02 5 (Table 4)for an average claim with recovery (including intact recoveries)and payments of $4,479 (Table 8) for an average claim with arecovery in-whole or in-part. Thus, the average payment for aclaim involving a total loss recovery was over $7,000 more than theaverage payment for a recovered vehicle and almost $6,600 more thanthe average cost of a claim involving an in-whole/in-part recovery.

The average claim payment by model for total loss recoveryclaims reflects the age and value of the model and ranged from alow of $3,512 for a Toyota Cressida to $35,037 for a Mercedes Benz300 DT in the 1983 sample. These payments are expressed in 1988dollars.

In the 1984 sample, 21% of all recoveries were classified astotal losses (Table 9). These total loss recoveries representedapproximately 23% of all 1984 in-whole/in-part recoveries. Theaverage payment for a total loss recovery claim was $11,275 in thissample. Thus, costs for 1984 total loss recovery claims wereapproximately $7,151 more than the average cost of a claim withrecovery (Table 5).

• If the Theft Prevention Standard has a positive influence onthe problem of theft and dismantling of vehicles then it could beexpected that proportion of recovery claims classified as totallosses might decrease below the 21-22% range observed in 1983-1984.

38

Table 8: Stratification of In-Whole / In-Part Recoveries: Total Loss Recoveries During(Payments Expressed in 1968 Dollars)

MAKE

AMERICAN MOTORSAMERICAN MOTORSAMERICAN MOTORSAUDI*AUDIAUDI*BMW«BMW#BMW-BMWBUICKBUICK

»BUICK*BUICK•sBUICKvBUICK*BUICK+BU1CK+BUICK+BUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKCADILLACCADILLACCADILLACCADILLAC

CADILLACCHEVROLET•CHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHRYSLERCHRYSLERCHRYSLERCHRYSLERCHRYSLERDATSUNDATSUNDAT3UN

MODEL

CONCORDEA6LE 30SPIRIT40004000 CPE OR QUATTRO 4 WD5000 h SW32015E8E52817331CENTURY ESTATECENTURY LTDELECTRA LTDELECTRA PARK AVELESABRELESABRE ESTATELESABRE LTD & CUSTORE6ALREGAL LTDREGAL SPRTRIVIERA LUXURYSKYHAWKSKYLARKSKYLARK LTDCIMARRONDEVILLEELDORADOFLEETWOOD BR0U6HAMSEVILLECAMARO BERLINETTACAMARO SPRT CPECAPRICE CLASSICAVALIERCAVALIER 10CAVALIER CSCHEV, TRUCKCHEVETTECHEVETTE SCOOTERCITATION IICORVETTEIMPALAMALIBIJMONTE CARLOCORDOBALEBARONNEW YORKER 5TH AVENEW YORKER/GRAN LEBARONNEWPORT200SX210280ZX

Recoveries- In-Whole

NUMBER

020I151020135

831734281

2511144640101031310305361

38

371022511

19163!

/ In-Part -

AVERAGEPAYMENT

5810

3182144427720125811748

495134252024226153334H5630513166341418058735508966032216523675693589214349141022762463036073911

6818711

481614E413524419320546352971106910986972480216

413125663243

NUMBER

010012700000021015007000010130504810403011110300100642

RecoverieslOtai LO?

AVERAGEPAYMENT

10788

144421578816763

154699188

1199010750

13402

1469618237

23478

1128990449274

8405

8038

5199110387440107576951

15105

9005615015851

PERCENT OF ALLRECOVERIES

05000

100406400000025330141500

28000020320

450

2518330

500

330925It2527001700

3022b

39

Table 8: Stratification of In-Whole / In-Part Recoveries: Total LDSS Recoveries During 1983(Payments Expressed in 1988 Dollars)

MAKE

DATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUN

*DQDGE*D0DGEDODGE

«DODGEsDODGE*DQB6EDODGEDODGEFIATFIATFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORD*FORDKFORD*FORDGM OF CANADAGMCTOYOTAHONDAHONDAHONDAHONDAHONDAISUZU

•JAGUARJAGUARJEEPJEEPLANCIALANCIALINCOLNLINCOLN*MAZDAMAZDAMAZDA*MAZDA

-

MODEL

310510KING CABMAXIMAPULSARSENTRASTANZAARIESARIES/CHALLENGERCHARGER/OMNI /SHELBY TURBOCOLT/600COLT/COLT VISTA/DIPLOHDIPLOMATMIRADARAM VANSPIDER S000X 1/9ESCORTEXP 3 DR HTCHBK TURBOFAIRMONT (FUTURA) 2 DR SDNFAIRMONT (FUTURA) 4 DR SDNGRANADA 2 DR SDNGRANADA 4 DR SDNGRANADA 4 DR SWLTD 4 DR SDNLTD 4 DR WAGON SQUIRELTD 4 SEAT SWLTD S 4 DR HTMUST 3 DR SDN HTBK/NTCHBK/GRANADA SMUSTANG Si MUSTANG II 3 DR SDN HTBKTHUNDERBIRD 2 DR HTPONTIAC PARISIENNE BROUGHAMINCOMPLETETRUCKACCORDCIVIC ISM HTCHBKCIVIC 4 DR SDNCIVIC SWPR&UDE CPEPICKUP 4X2XJ6LXJSCHEROKEE MPV 2 DR WAGON/WTWAGONEER MPV 4 DR WAGONBETAZAGATOCONTINENTAL 4 DR SDN MARKLINCOLN 4 DR SDN626B2000 TRUCKB2000/B2200 TRUCKGLC

RecoveriesIn-Whole ,

NUMBER

31S1337514231111S1

206111111111

10124111412011000131

15123

/ In-Part -

AVERAGEPAYMENT

403771%454847S6726288927511113621713831040128

694014042304944387974322743455003158913519286310910515720490948

1444

14219621176054943334686638525556

230821937

49829716463336587S53365167

NUMBER

2113021020001101163100101000000113300010010000104112

Recoveries— Total Loss

AVERAGEPAYMENT

57147196484713621

76909924 .

10324

694014042

81017974573069715003

9286

10515

142191107888509203

8273

21937

19918

91215878101367423


671005019029170

50000

100100050100255610000

1000

10000000%

100507525000

3300

1000000250241005067

fable S: Stratification of In-Whole / In-Part Recoveries: Total Loss Recoveries During b83(Payments Expressed in 19S8 Dollars)

HAKE

MAZDAMERCEDES K N Z•MERCEDES BENZ•MERCEDES BENZ•MERCEDES BENZ•MERCEDES BENZ•MERCURY•MERCURY•MERCUR'MERCURYMERCURYtUCuRYMERCURY

•MITSUBISHI•OLD1 aBILE«r MOBILE•*" r'3M0BlLEULDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILE

+OLDSMOBILE•OLDSMOBILE•OLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMBILEOLDSMOBILE•QLDSMOBILEPEU6EAT•PLYMOUTHPLYMOUTHPLYMOUTH•PLYMOUTHPOu/TACPONTIAC•PQNTIAC•PONTIAC•PONTIAC•PONTIAC•PONTIAC+PONTIAC+PONTIAC+PONTIACPONTIACPONTIACPONTIAC•PORSCHE•PORSCHEPORSCHERENAULTRENAULT

MODEL

RX7240D 2 DR SDN300 DT 4 DR SDN300SD 4 DR SDN380 SEC 2 DR CPE380SL S DR CPECAPRI 3 DR HTCHBKtUijtiAR 2 DR HT XR-7COUGAR 2 DR SDNLYNXMARQUIS BROUGHAM 4 DR SDNTOPAZ 4 DR SDN GSZEPHYR 4 DR SDNCORDIA/TREDIA98 REGENCY98 REGENCY BROUGHAMCUSTOM CRUISERCUTLASS CALAISCUTLASS CIERACUTLASS CIERA BROUGHAMCUTLASS CIERA LSCUTLASS SDNCUTLASS SUPREMEDtLTA 88DELTA 88 ROYALEDELTA ROYALE BROUGHAMOMEGAOMEGA BROUGHAMTORONADO BROUGHAMSDNCARAVELLECHAMPHORIZON k TC3 CUSTOM/TURISMORELIANT SP ED CUSTO1000/CATALINA/PARISIENNE2000BONNEVILLEBONNEV1LLE BROUGHAMFIREBIRD T/AFIREBIRD/FIREBIRD SEFIREBIRD/FIREBIRD SE/BONNEVILLE LEGRAN PRIXGRAN PRIX BROUGHAMGRAN PRIX U k LEGRAND LEMANSLEMANSPHOENIX911924 k 928944FUE60 2 DR CPELECAR 4 DR HTCHBK

Recoveries- In-Whole

NUMBER

23132012

11010021362121

3422

463128211011117

024408178

251

4101

i

/ In-Part -

AVERAGEPAYMENT

63153577

24109487

140813930

3143318610758

58223307943645944111103834244755446733963S513336235968282870557049467737154792570

376574175454

26913963144730438584

18764429

13936

6481

NUMBER

9020002004100103030611901020300001000210150410i00001

Recoveries— Total Los;

AVERAGEPAYMENT

11729

35037

3930

615610753

11645

15928

12272

10911935276738924

11468

6828

13816

7684

985113188

83959096

100328584

5698

6401


380

6700'0

50003310000500430

25016333318080

10003000001100050250li290151000250000

100

41

Table 8: Stratification of In-Whole / In-Part Recoveries! Total Loss Recoveries During 1983(Payments Expressed in 1988 Dollars)

MAKE MODEL

SAABSAABSUBARUSUBARUSUBARU"TOYOTA»TOYQTA*TOYOTATOYOTATOYOTA

»TOYOTA*TGYQTATOYOTATOYOTATRIUMPHKVOLKSWAGON"VOLKSWAGQN*V0LKSWA6QNV0LKSWA60NVOLVOVOLVOVOLVO

BASE SERIESTURBO SERIESGLBLFSTANDARDCAMRYCELICA & SUPRACOROLLACORONACRESSIDAMRSSTARLETTERCELTRUCKTR7/TR8RABBIT CONV/CABRIOLETRABBIT GOLFSCIROCCOVANA60N

e DR4 DRSDR

RecoveriesTn-bttinioIM WHOIB

NUHBER

e271

3254«31

11251

a7

eI241

/ Tn-P=r-t -/ in rari

AVERAGEPAYMENT

3035194721214584

63715670316-633363512

5159307821006E0

1024539S76150153

1123716063079

NUMBER

0010AV

19911A

13102310S00

Recoveries-~- Tn* n 1 1 At

lOt a I LObStfil

AVERAGE PERCENT OF ALLPAYMENT

9530

81S810064788174763512

515977037091

10245745411771

11237

RECOVERIES

00110OkV?

3338203350(AV

10023170

100305006700

TOTALS: 993 4479 245 11062 22

- Modpl subject to the Theft Prevention Standard in 1987 only.+ Model subject to the Theft Prevention Standard in 1988 only.* Model subject to the Theft Prevention Standard both in 1987 and 1988.

42

Table 9: Stratification of In-Whole / In-F'art Recoveries: Total Loss Recoveries During 1984(Payments Expressed in 1988 Dollars)

MAKE MODEL

AUDIAUDI*BHW«BNN*BHW-BMWBUICKBUICK

«BUICK«BUICKSMCK*BUICK«6UICKsBUICK»BUICK*BIJiCK»BUII:K*BUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKCADILLAC

CADILLAC•CADILLACCADILLAC

(CADILLAC*CHEVROLET•CHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHRYSLERSCHPYBLER*CHRYSLER*CHRYBLER*CHRYSLERDATSUNPflTSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUN

4000

mm k sw350152BE633CSI/533I7331CENTURY ESTATECENTURY LTDELECTRA 825 & ESTATEELECTRA LTDELECTRA PARK AVELESABRELESABRE ESTATELESABRE LTD h CUSTOREGALREGAL LTDREGAL SPRTRIVIERA LUXURYSKYHAWKSKYHAWK LTSKYLARKSKYLARK LTDCIHARRONDEVILLEELDORADOFLEETWOOD BROUGHAMSEVILLECAHARO BERLINETTACAHARf) SPRT CPECAPRICE CLASSICAVALIERCAVALIER CSCHEV. TRUCKCHEVETTECHEVETTE SCOOTERCITATION IICITATION II CPECORVETTEIMPALAHALIBUHONTE CARLOCORDOBALAGER/LASER XE/DAYTONALEBARONNEW YORKER 5TH AVENEK YQRKER/6RAN LEBARON200SX£10580ZX3#ZX310

Recover- In-Whole /

NUMBER

1273u

129025401340292263

022453351641319945524141306470176415101721

iesIn-Part -

AVERAGEPAYMENT

1075106035498363160093355542845«6

198786893440

467136615013222937324338

2194300772297835617764021899633013258I9603077374454493013457340664698221

51724447

4261353830676085269830258720100001913

NUMBER

0110111£002104il10010,-J.0003135432201913120201930010135710

RecoveriesT x 1

lot a l

AVERAGEPAYMENT

1892914825

1363333551039510775

531679930

11790761010353

12696

882017257211349398

22976873512215

1018994678298401745736233

12156

123798775

14177

14432646553371657619007

Losses


033130'

33100332000

33200272732040

I0

6§2214257515100

251533755050067026380013025203839500

43

Table 9: Stratification of In-Whole / In-Part Recoveries: Total Loss Recoveries During 1984(Payments Expressed in 1988 Dollars)

HAKE

DATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUN•DODGE*DODGE*DODGEDODGE#DQDGE* DODGEDODGEDODGEDODGEDOD6EFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORD»FORD*FORD*FORD*FORB»F0RDFORDFORDFORD*FORDGM OF CANADAGHCGMCGHCHONDAHONDAHONDA .HONDAHONDAHONDAISUZUISUZU

•JAGUARJEEPJEEPJEEPJEEP

-

MODEL

KING CABMAXIMAPULSARSENTRASTANZATRUCK REG. BED400/600ARIESARIES/CHALLENGERCHARGER/OMNI/SHELBY TURBOCOLT/600COLT/DAYTONA/DAYTONA TURBMIRADARAM 50 & ARROWRAM CHARGER 4X4RAH VANCOUNTRY SQUIRE SWESCORTEXP 3 DR HTCHBK TURBOFAIRMONT (FUTURA) 4 DR SDNFAIRMONT (FUTURA) SWGRANADA 4 DR SWLTD 4 DR SDNLTD 4 SEAT SWLTD CROWN VICTORIA S DR SDNLTD S 4 DR HTMUST 3 DR SDN HTBK/NTCHBK/6RANADA SMUSTANG & MUSTANG II S DR SDNMUSTANG It MUSTANG II £ DR SDN LXMUSTANG & MUSTANG II 3 DR SDN HTBKMUSTANG/GRANADA E DR SDNRANGER 4XE P/UTEMPO S DR SDN GLTEMPO/LASERTHUNDERBIRD S DR SDNPONTIAC PARISIENNE BROUGHAMINCOMPLETEMPVTRUCKACCORDCIVIC 1300 HTCHBKCIVIC 1500 HTCHBKCIVIC 4 DR SDNCRX, HF, SIPR&UDE CPEIMPULSE/PICKUP 4X4PICKUP 4XSXJ6LCHEROKEE MPV E DR WAGON/WTCHEROKEE MPV 4 DR WAGONCJ-5 MPV S DRWAGONEER MPV 4 DR WAGON

RecoveriesIn-Whole

NUMBER

3336171110163001

s0423961S110010101£63S51119E001E130131113

/ In-Part -

AVERAGEPAYMENT

87704988S6702S6753345S48

14587S1883639

89763E9

450S5871317419S634E85450151535

0

318

79911971139101763354431E35EU0334358848SE

9580S3181077S798

599330S471745014848

04351

NUMBER

S8134101010010011700100000000000001000

s6010000131100

Recoveries—-. Total 1 ne_

tuiaI LOsaea

AVERAGEPAYMENT

10696115S883437407106575E48

14587

8488

8976

107601067310041

1083E

13106

94578676

9580

5993308471745014848


678317163610005002500

10000S5501500500000000000000S000080880

1000000

10010010010000

dine i; aimuuuiiiun ot m-wncue / m-ran recoveries: icnai LOSS .acovsries uuring am(Payments Expressed in 1988 Dollars)

MAKE

•LINCOLN•LINCOLNLINCOLN•MAZDAMAZDAMAZDA

•MAZDAMAZDA

•MERCEf'PS BENZMERCEttS BENZ

•MERCEDRS BENZ«fc.iOES BENZ•MERCEDES "3ENZ•MERCEDES BENZ•MERHRY•r ,JRY•-•HPHCURY•iltRCURYMERCURYMERCURYMERCURYMERCURYMERCURY•MITSUBISHI•OLBSMOBILE•OLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLBSMOBILE

+OLDSMOBILE•OLBSMOBILE•OLDSMQBILE•OLBSMOBILEOLUaMOBILEOLBSMOBILEOLDSMOBILE•OLBSMOBILEPEU6EAT

•PLYMOUTHPLYMOUTHPLYMOUTH

•PLYMOUTH•PLYMOUTHPLYMOUTH•PLYMOUTHPLYMOUTHPLYMOUTHPQNTIACPONTIACPONTIAC•PONTIAC

-

MODEL

CONTINENTAL 4 DR SDNCONTINENTAL 4 DR SDN MARKLINCOLN 4 DR SDN626B2000 TRUCK.B2000/B2200 TRUCK6LCHUT190D 4 DR SDN240D 2 DR SDN300 DT 4 DR SDN300SB 4 DR SDN380 SEL 4 DR SDN380SL 2 DR CPECAPRI 3 DR HTCHBKCOUGAR 2 DR HT XR-7COUGAR 2 DR SDNCOUGAR 4 DR SBNGRAND MARQUIS 2 DR SDN LSLYNXMARQUIS 4 DR SDNMARQUIS BROUGHAM 4 DR SDNZEPHYR SPORTY CPE-7CURDJA/TREBIA98 REGENCY98 REGENCY BROUGHAMCUTLASS CALAISCUTLASS CIERA BROUGHAMCUTLASS CIERA BROUGHAM/SUPR BRQUGHMCUTLASS CIERA LSCUTLASS SUPREMEDELTA 88DELTA S3 ROYALEDELTA RQYALE BROUGHAMFIRENZAFIRENZA BROUGHAMOMEGA BROUGHAMTORQNABO BROUGHAMSDN•CARAVELLECHAMPCOLT EDL PREMIERCONQUESTGRAN FURY/CARAVELLEHORIZON k TC3 CUSTOM/TURISMORELIANT SP EB CUSTOSAPPOROVOYAGER WAGON/VAN1000/CATALINA/PARISIENNE20006000 STEBONNEVILLE

RecoveriesIn-Whole

NUMBER

22027101345012410513012121311663413541238023951121126213413

/ In-Part -

AVERAGEPAYMENT

1074916721

4214283

33935319

14214431116172333

573611418241

0502

10335556580623075236035484959432989057983881252124126393

106061346301512039754737146215054702313827451061103328733464171533091

NUMBER

120b00311001100302000101I01E100113013002I11100000000210

Recoveries

iota I Losse

AVERAGEPAYMENT

1951316721

9160

741912852

2794339505

8725

11075

10335

80626809

144401038410265

113238620

1009211718

7573145901593639754737

550817153

PERCENT OF AilRECOVERIES

331000210'0212400331?0060067000

1000

1002501733280202304380067112010010000000000401000

45

Table 9: Stratification of In-Whole / In-Part Recoveries: Total Loss Recoveries During 1984(Payments Expressed in 1988 Dollars)

MAKE

*PONTIAC*PONTIAC•PONTIAC*PONT1AC•PONTIAC+PONTIAC+PONTIAC+PONTIACPONTIACPONTIACPONTIAC*PORSCHE*PQRSCHEPORSCHERENAULTRENAULTRENAULTRENAULTRENAULT

»SAABSAABSAABSAABSUBARUSUBARU*TOYOTATOYOTA

ttTOYOTA*TOYOTATOYOTA

*TOYQTA*TOYOTATOYOTAGMCV0LKSWA80NVOLKSWAGON

»VOLKSWAGON*VOLKSWAGON»VOLKSWAGQNVOLVOVOLVOVOLVO

-

MODEL

BQNNEVILLE BROUGHAMFIERO SM4 & SE CPEFIREBIRD T/AFIREBIRD/FIREBIRD SEFIREBIRD/FIREBIRD SE/BONNEVILLE LEGRAN PRIXGRAN PRIX BROUGHAMGRAN PRIX LJ & LEPHOENIX SE/PARISlENNE BROUGHAMPONTIAC 6000PONTIAC 6000 LE911984 & 988944181 4 DR SDNALLIANCE 8 DR SUNALLIANCE 4 DR SDNFUE60 £ DR CPELECAR 8 DR HTCHBK900900SBASE SERIESTURBO SERIESGLTURBO RXCAMRYCARGO VANCELICA & SUPRACOROLLACRESSIDAMR8STARLETTERCELTRUCKJETTAQUANTUM 2 DR/4 DRRABBIt CONV/CABRIOLETRABBIT GOLF9CIROCCO8 DR4 DRSDR

RecoveriesIn-Whole

NUMBER

1S

era

780303ii18

a011

a004010019010

a454418181311600108040

/ In-Part -

AVERAGEPAYMENT

465754784S99539456048676389886691003423957981

786663881684

5640

1806

48181863

31088990601331943451738308130483594588S

50145557

3734

NUMBER

0011881800100000080000000111691018830031010

RecoveriesTill

— lOtflI LOSses

AVERAGEPAYMENT

1151913884101619516805010860

18598

8108

138441559511474830915880

49178171948810098

953810483

13498


0081438685180050000000400000000733331780501115500087500170

TOTALS! 1311 4581 307 11875 81

- Model subject to the Theft Prevention Standard in 1987 only.+ Model subject to the Theft Prevention Standard in 1986 only.* Model subject to the Theft Prevention Standard both in 1987 and 1988.

46

2.2.4 Examination of Recoveries Prior to Settlement

This investigation examined claims for cases oftheft where a recovery was made prior to the insurance payment.This was identified in the claim data since both the recovery dateand settlement date were provided.

Tables 10 and 11 present the number of claims and averagepayment by model for recoveries prior to settlement in the 1-983and 1984 sample's, respectively. These tables also identify theproportion of all recoveries which occured prior to settlement, bymodel. T~ facilitate comparisons, the number and average paymentsof all recovery claims are reproduced from Table 4 and 5 in Tables10 an^ ii. Aggregate statistics for each sample appear at thebottom of these tables.

Table 10 indicates that 1,012 or 92% of all recoveries in the1983 sample occured before the claim was paid. The average paymentf r a recovery prior to settlement was $3,512 in 1988 dollars.' .is was $513 less than the cost of an average claim with recovery,hased on the sample sizes, the average payment for a claim withrecovery prior to settlement was $6,095 less than the averagepayment for a claim where recovery occured after settlement.

A total of 1,362 out of 1,457 recoveries or 93% of therecoveries in the 1984 sample occured prior to claim payment.Based on the sample sizes, the average payment in the 1984 samplefor a claiui with recovery prior to settlement was $5,061 less thanthtj average payment for a claim where recovery occurred aftersettlement.

The high proportion of recoveries prior to settlement reflectsthe operation of the insurance company which supplied these samplesand their time frame for settling theft claims. Approximately 50%of the claims with recovery prior to settlement were settled within30 days of the report of vehicle theft. Roughly 75% of theseclaims were settled within 60 days, while approximately 85%-90% ofthe claims were settled within 9 0 days.

47

Table 10: Stratification of Recoveries: Recoveries Prior to Settlement During 1983(Payments Expressed in 1988 Dollars)

MAKE HODEL NUMBER

AMERICAN MOTORSAMERICAN MOTORSAMERICAN MOTORSAUDI•AUDIAUDI*BMW»BMU*BMW-BMWBUICKBUICK

*BUICK*BUICK»BUICK*BUICKSBUICK+BUICK+BUICK+BUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKCADILLAC

*CABILLAC*CABILLACCADILLAC"CADILLAC^CHEVROLET»CHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLET.CHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHRYSLER

*CHRYSLER"CHRYSLER•CHRYSLER*CHRYSLERDATSUNDATSUNDAT3UN

CONCOFDEAGLE 30SPIRI'i40004000 CPE OR QUATTRO 4 W5000 h SW3S0I583E58817331CENTURY ESTATECENTURY LTDELECTRA LTDELECTRA PARK AVELESABRELESABRE ESTATELESABRE LTD & CUSTOREGALREGAL LTDREGAL SPRTRIVIERA LUXURYSKYHAWKSKYLARKSKYLARK LTDCIMARRONDEVILLEELDORADOFLEETWOQD BROUGHAMSEVILLECAMARO BERLINETTACAMARO SPRT CPECAPRICE CLASSICAVALIERCAVALIER 10CAVALIER CSCHEV. TRUCKCHEVETTECHEVETTE SCOOTERCITATION IICORVETTEIMPALAMALIBUMONTE CARLOCORDOBALEBARDNNEW YORKER 5TH AVENEW YORKER/GRAN LEBARONNEWPORT800SX210880ZX

AllRecoveries —

AVERAGER PAYMENT NUMBER

Recoveries• Prior to Sett I

AVERAGEPAYMENT

enient -~

PCT OF ALLRECOVERIES

5810

11511401555831734311

8518144941111141&11

era <!

0

83981149401184611801838

318214442772011437874

49512C55202428615333425630513166341416302735508966016116583675655787053954128202085376232793911

486171138117121107331428494287270110695685810480216392422813142

5810

11n

94AV

1555731531291

251214473811V414108043381149 '35914611181530

31881444283419983874

49518055808428613981485630511891305615802735508966016116583675628079583954101942085333832571230

1177118948712110733142849366428811655685810480216381514002295

1001006082100

10010010010088100100719194100100100100100100%9310088100839167

5010089100100100100

50100100100100903394

jhii? !'?>: titraiifi cation of Recoveries: Recover i ts Pi itir to Settlement During l';|i;J(Payments Expressed in t'3fi;i luilkubi

MAKE

DATBUN

OATSiJNDATSUN

DATSUN

DATSUN

DATGlll

DATS! IN

MOM.

310' MKING CAB

MAXIMA

PULSAR

• iT'tl/A

AllRecover ies -

NUMBER

3

f?if.476

AVERAGE

PAYMENT

4037

7i%4Mt i

3Bffit

544R881-}

NUMBER

L ,1

%

'd154f>> • ,

Recover ies

- Prior to Mi te

AVF.RAGE

PAYMFNT

m i

V-M;!cS0

544

7b7

PCT OF ALL

RECOVERIES

l ( MT"~100' 94

IW(3683

iwm. TURBO

CtiLT/MT VISTi

MA1

i-lft!FORDFliR'O

PURDFfiRF)

FilRD

FORDFORDFORD

FORDFORD

FORD

*FCM'i»FORD

JR1RD

•iff OF CANADA

merOYQTA

HONDAHONDAHONDA

IWl.ti

mm

»JAGUAR

'AGUAR

3FEP

JF.EP

LANCIA

LANCIA

LINCOLNLINCOLN

•JfflZOA

MAZDAHAZDA

Rffl VftN

KflCORYL-,v:r- 3 J& HTniSK TURBO

FfiElMiNT (Fi l iUftf i j f! OR SDN

FAIftiflST (FU1URA) 4 DR SDN

mmm i1 DR SDNi^AMADA 4 DR SUNffiANADA 4 DR Bn

LTD 4 DR SDN

i I P « DR HA60N iiQUIRE1 fi) 4 SF.AT BW

Lin B 4 DH I1T

H!J,if 3 iff! HIM HTBK/NTCHBK/BRANADA B

KDBTANe u HUBTANB I I 3 DR 3D

THUiftERBSRO i! OH HT

PONIiAC PARIHiENNt BROUHHAMifCOHPLLTE

TRUCK

ACCORDCIVIC I'M HTCHBK

CIVIC 4 Dk SDN

CIVIC fiWFTifLUlit CFF

r-lCIa!? 4 f f i

XJ6L

XJSCHfcROKCF NPV 9 PR WAGGN/WT

WAH(.i!#>]t: HPV 4 DR WAGON

BFl'AM A T O

COhifiNENTAL 4 DR SDN MARKLINCOLN 4 DR SDN

mm TRUCKBpft'ri!')/riP?0A TRUCK

fir.

N HTBK

iR1

H4b

11111

11111101"it4

3St5Kd

011000141

171

0a

7P0IBti

3840

4345

15G913519C86310910515

94H

1444

14S19

(vffiI'M,

8308E1937

49

89435870533b5167

01

116

11

1404L1

30494438

434S

9P36310910515

m948

01444

1421-31344

3480334669S192&.1419

230821937

491G53164605%58784863973

100

1.00100100100100

100100

10050

1008310010010067

100100

100

75

100941.0050

674 9


MAKE

MAZDAMERCEDES BENZ•MERCEDES BENZ*MERCEDES BENZ•MERCEDES BENZ•MERCEDES BENZ*MERCURY•MERCURY•MERCURYMERCURYMERCURYMERCURYMERCURY*MITSUBISHIaOLDSMOBILE•QLBSMOBILEOLDSHDBILEOLDSMDBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEDLDSMOBILEOLDSMQBILE+OLDSMOBILE•OLDSHQBILE•QLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILE

•OLDSMOBILEPEU6EAT*PLY«OUTHPLYMOUTHPLYMOUTH•PLYMOUTHPONTIACPONTIAC•PONTIAC•PONTIAC•PONTIAC•PONTIAC*P0NTIAC+PONTIAC+PONTIAC+PONTIACPONTIACPONTIACPONTIAC*PORSCHE•PORSCHEPORSCHERENAULTRENAULT

MODEL

RX7240D E DR SDN300 DT 4 DR SDN300SD 4 DR SDN380 SEC 2 DR CPE380SL S DR CPECAPRI 3 DR HTCHBKCOUGAR S DR HT XR-7CDUGAP 2 DR SDNLYNXMARQUIS BROUGHAM 4 DR SDNTOPAZ 4 DR SDN 6SZEPHYR 4 DR SDNCORDIA TREDIA98 REKNCY98 REGINCY BROUGHAMCUSTOM CRUISERCUTLASS CALAISCUTLAE3 CIERACUTLA&3 CIERA BROUGHAMCUTLASS CIERA LSCUTLASS SDNCUTLASS SUPREMEDELTA 88DELTA 88 ROYALEDELTA ROYALE BROUGHAMOMEGAOMEGA BROUGHAMTORQNADO BROUGHAMSDNCARAVELLECHAMPHORIZON tt TC3 CUSTOM/TUfUSHQRELIANT SP ED CUSTO10S0/CATALINA/PARISIENNE2000BQNNEVILLEBONNEVILLE BROUGHAMFIREBIRD T/AFIREBIRD/FIREBIRD SEFIREBIRD/FIREBIRD SE/BONNEVILLE LEGRAN PRIXGRAN PRIX BROUGHAMBRAN PRIX U tt LEGRAND LEMANSLEMANSPHOENIX9119S4 8> 92S944FUEGQ 2 DR CPELECAR 4 DR HTCHBK

All— Recoveries —

NUMBER

2413

e0l4ii12100S13731223733493IE921

101112910444091792711420111

AVERAGEPAYMENT

60523577

S4109487

140811965

03143265510758

5822330780883063411151931483170297831883E51333620976828287055704946778715S391999

0

189074175454

23923%31E8628178584

018762215

13936

6481

NUMBER

2211201411111002136311233134721292191112810433091695701420111

Recoveries- Prior to Sett I

AVERAGEPAYMENT

549935772252487

140811965

03143238610758

582233675784306336285193049

02978302643873336209768282870410349467787152391970

0

18%63642876

2392408612862817

018762215

13936

6481

einent


92.

\m33

10010010010092100

100

m86100921008933100966710010010010090100100100m89100

1007575

10094100100

100100100

1001W100

Table 10: Stratification of Recoveries: Recoveries Prior to Settlement During 19S3(Payments Expressed in 198S Dollars)

MAKE MODEL

SAABSAABSUBARUSUBARUSUBARU•TOYOTA*TOYOTA*TOYOTATO'.'jlnTOYIFAxTOYOTA*TOYO"TO !•|,lvnTAThlUKPH

«VOLKSUAGON*V0LKSWA6QN#yOLKSWAGONVOLKSWAPONVOLVOVOLVOVOLVO

BASE SERIESTURBO SERIESGL6LFbit,nuARDCAMRYCELICA & SUPRACOROLLACORONACRESSIDAMR2STARLETTERCELTRUCKTR7/TR8RABBIT CONV/CABRIOLETRABBIT GOLFSCIROCCOVANAGONP. DR4 Oft5 DR

All"- KeCO\

NUMBER

22911328453211136121021351

'eries

AVERAGEPAYMENT

3035194716494584

063715063£8163386175669

515928411750620

1024527976150153

749115853079

NUMBER

2291132544321013512721351

Recoveries• Prior to Settl

AVERAGEPAYMENT

3035194716494584

06371445S£8353386175669

2841682620

102458026150153

74911E853079

ement


1001001001001001008998100100100

1003310010070100100100100100

TOTALS: 1105 4025 1012 3512 92


51


MAKE

AUDIAUDI

*BMW•BMW*BMW-BMWBUICKBUM

*BUICK*BUICK«BUICK•BUICK*BUICK*BUICK#BUICK•BUICK•BUICK*BUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKCADILLAC

•CADILLAC•CADILLACCADILLAC•CADILLAC•CHEVROLET•CHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHRYSLER•CHRYSLER•CHRYSLER•CHRYSLER•CHRYSLERDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUN

MODEL

40005000 It SW320152SE633CSI/533I7331CENTURY ESTATECENTURY LTDELECTRA EE5 & ESTATEELECTRA LTDELECTRA PARK AVELESABRELESABRE ESTATELESABRE LTD & CUSTOREGALREGAL LTDREGAL SPRTRIVIERA LUXURYSKYHAWKSKYHAHK LTSKYLARKSKYLARK LTDCIMARRONDEVILLEELDORADOFLEETWOOD BROUGHAMSEVILLECAMARO BERLINETTACAMARO SPRT CPECAPRICE CLASSICAVA! IERCAVAUER CSCHEV, TRUCKCHEVETTECHEVETTE SCOOTERCITATION IICITATION II CPECORVETTEIMPALAMALIBUMONTE CARLOCORDOBALASER/LASER XE/DAYTDNALEBARONNEW YORKER 5TH AVENEW YORKER/GRAN LEBARON200SXS10

esezx3002X310

AllRecoveries

NUMBER

S3833I31002650154131S263

435

5836164132094

6034241307281189415131821

AVERAGEPAYMENT

5377069481136316009335536184056

198772412752

405435724690222937324338

10972004578371606006640218996330130951960307734343632301322864066469

8221

45973891

0426130%20456085269823278236100001913

NUMBER

23833029025501340272

24nu

0435

5733153131984

563323120687 '1139414111521

RecoveriesPrior to Sett I

AVERAGEPAYMENT

5377069481136316009

2303360

198767182752

302034453857222931924338

109720045783692751756577184603301296117983077360236322666228633934691429

43323121

0426130%20456085234817196959100001913

enieni


100100100100100

67%

10083100

37988710092100

10010010098929475100958910093100751007510067

9488100100100100100938533100

52

Tahb 11: Stratification of Recoveries: Ret aver ifj5 Prior to Gottlemsnt Dm inci(Payments Expressed in 1988 Dollars)

;AKE

DATBUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDflTSUNsDODSE»!MM*DODGEB0D6E

«DDD6E»DODBEDODGt:DOWSEDODBEiiODifFH1f-O'ii)FORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORD»FORD»FQRDsFGRDsFtlRDBFORDFORDFORDFORD

xfORD(iH OF CANADASMCGMCGMCHONDAHONDAHONDAHONDAHONDAHONDAIGUZUISUZIJ

ftJAGUARJEEPJEEPJEEPJEi".P

MODEL

KSffii CABHAXIMftPULSARStNi'RASTANZATRUCK RBi. BED4#/MM'>ARIESARfFS/CHALLFNGERCHAi<ER/!IiNI/SHHJY TURBOMJ/600COLT/DAY11WA/DAYTQNA TURBM1RADARftii 50 h ARROWKM CHARGER 4X4

\m VANCOUNTRY SGUiRK S^EMIiTH P 3 DR HTCHBK TURBOFAIRMONT (FIJTURA) 4 DR SDNF M H H i W (FIJTURA! SWffiAiMDA 4 DR 3WLTD 4 DR SDNLTD 4 SEAT »!LTD CROWN VICTORIA 2 DR SDNLTD 5 4 DR HTMUSI 3 DR SDN HTBK/NTCHBK/6RANADA SMSTANti h. MUSTANG 0 E DR SDNI-iliStANG 'h MUSTANG 11 8 DR HDN U.MUGTANG fc MUSTANG 11 3 DR SDN HTBKMIJliTANB/fiHANADA S DR SDNRANGER 4X2 P/UTEMPO 2 DR SDN 61.TEMPO/LASERTHUNDERBIBJ c! DR 5DNPONTIAC PARIS1ENNI: BROUGHAMIICOHPIETEMPVTRUCK•ACCORDCIVIC 1300 HTCHBKCIVIC i 3 # HTCHBKCIVIC 4 DR SDNC M , HF, SIPRELUDE CPEWPULBf/PICKUP 4X4PICKUP 4X2XJbLCHEROKEE MPV 2 DR WAGON/WTCHEROKEE MPV 4 DR WAGONCJ-5 MPV a DRWABONEER MPV 4 DR WAGON

All--— RecovRries

NUMBEii

a

35(,is11i2R6

4?.I12042

4b64?,?.10111101263351i11027i1

i4%13111vJ

AVF.RAOEPAYMENT

mik>47fci267020355334Si.!48

M

7H93RtBBPIS

00

89763K

45025871fif-91192Gu'j/

5450%535

0%0

313

799119711391017433544312352J1083432293574

fl95808318i«772099

5993382471745014842

04351

— -

NUMBER

3o!;,

ID1!1

1542112041

44A42C1ft1111012633c

111727I02140020113

RecoveriePrior to Sett I

AVERAGEPAYMENT

87704178Sb85214853345248

00

18362729

0w

897633

4502

mai-bib192685754507b535

000

318

799119?1139101743354431235211083423463574

0

231810772099

33093

148420

4351

s

einent —


100948395

' 1OS

\m100508310010010M100100

1005096100100100100100

100100100100

10010010010010010010010010070100lm

100100100

67

100100100

53

Table li: Stratification of Recoveries: Recoveries Prior to Settlement During 1984(Payments Expressed in 1988 Dollars)

MAKE

•LINCOLN•LINCOLNLINCOLN•MAZDAMAZDAMAZDA•MAZDAMAZDA•MERCEDES BENZMERCEDES BENZ

•MERCEDES BENZ•MERCEDES BEN^•MERCEDES BENZ•MERCEDES BENZ•MERCURY•MERCURY•MERCURY•MERCURYMERCURYMERCURYMERCURYMERCURYMERCURY•MITSUBISHI•OLDSMOBILE•OLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILE+OLDSMOBILE•OLDSMOBILE•OLDSMOBILE•OLDSMOBILEOLDSMQBILEOLDSMOBILEQLDSMOBILE•OLDSMOBILEPEUBEAT•PLYMOUTHPLYMOUTHPLYMOUTH

•PLYMOUTH•PLYMOUTHPLYMOUTH•PLYMOUTHPLYMOUTHPLYMOUTHPONTIACPONTIACPOt'TIAC•PONTIAC

MODEL

CONTINENTAL 4 DR SDNCONTINENTAL 4 DR SDN MARKLINCOLN 4 DR SDNteeB2000 TRUCKBS000/BaE00 TRUCKGLCRX7190D 4 DR SDNE40D 2 DR SDN300 DT 4 DR SDN300SD 4 DR SDN380 BEL 4 DR SDN380SL 8 DR CPECAPRI 3 DR HTCHBKC0U6AR E DR HT XR-7COUGAR 2 DR SDNCOUGAR 4 DR SDNGRAND MARQUIS 2 DR SDN LSLYNXMARQUIS 4 DR SDNMARQUIS BROUGHAM 4 DR SDNZEPHYR SPORTY CPE-7CORDIA/TREDIA98 REGENCY98 REGENCY BROUGHAMCUTLASS CALAISCUTLASS CIERA BROUGHAMCUTLASS CIERA BR0U6HAM/SUPR BROUGHMCUTLASS CIERA LSCUTLASS SUPREMEDELTA 88DELTA B8 ROYALEDELTA ROYALE BROUGHAMFIRENZAFIRENZA BROUGHAMOMEGA BROUGHAMTORONADO BROUGHAMSDNCARAVELLECHAMPCOLT EDL PREMIERCONQUESTGRAN FURY/CARAVELLEHORIZON & TC3 CUSTDH/TURISHDRELIANT SP ED CUSTOSAPPOROVOYAGER WAGON/VAN1000/CATALINA/PARISIENNE£0006000 STEBONNEVILLE

AllRecoveries

NUMBER

320281014460136105131131214IE663615

571

2480a39511aii28aI3514

AVERAGEPAYMENT

7166167E1

4066583

31515254

14296217744E338

573611418E41

970

335103355565806ES3E326E235484959409089034793678252123126393

1060618463015120397547371462

15054702

31382059106110333873E77117153831S

NUMBER

0

E0£41013450i36104131131aI412663315551

2480229401211a8aI34I4

Recoveries- Prior to Settlement

AVERAGE PCT OF ALLPAYMENT RECOVERIES

716616721

3E2E283

S6E3.5357

14S%2177442338

492411418E41970

335103355565806E23B3E62E35484959350489034793603E5E123126393

106053336301E416

47371462

15054702

3138305910611033£8731781171532318

100100

86100

9398

100100100100

801001001001001001001001001001001001009810010096100100100

1006710080

10010010010010010010010010080100100

11: Stratification of Recoveries; Recoveries Prior to Settlement During 1484(Payments Expressed in 1988 Dollars)

AllRecoveries —-

RecoveriesPrior to Settlement

MAKE MODEL

PQRSTHEREN ,TP .LT• r"lJLThtNAULTRENAULT

*SAABSAABSAAB

SUBARU

*P0NTIAC BONNEVILLE BR0U6HAM»PQNTIAC FIERO EM4 fc SE CPE«P0NTIAC FIREBIRD T/A»P0NTIAC FIREBIRD/FIREBIRD SEftPONTIAC FIREBIRD/FIREBIRD SE/BONNEVILLE LE+PONTIAC 6RAN PRIX+PONTIAC BRAN PRIX BROUGHAM+PQNTIAH ta»N PRIX U k LEPONTIfc PHOENIX SE/PARISIENNE BR0U6HAMPONTIAC PONTIAC 60WPONTJAC PONiIAC 6000 LE•Pi* :€ 911

924 it 9289441SI 4 DR SDNALLIANCE E DR SDNALLIANCE 4 DR SDNFUEGO 2 DR CPELECAR 2 DR HTCHBK908900SBASE SERIESTURBO SERIES6LTURBO RX

*TOYOTA CAMRYTOYQT:'. CARGO VAN»TOYQTA CELICA h SUPRA* TOYOTA COROLLATOYOTA CRESSIDA"TOYOTA MR2sTOYOTA STARLETTOYOTA TERCELSMC TRUCKV0U.NA6QN JETTAV0LK5WA6QN QUANTUM S DR/4 DR*VOLKf»GON RABBIT CONV/CABRIOLET»VQLKSWAtiON RABBIT GOLF*VOLKSWAHON SCIROCCOVOLVO 8 DRVOLVO 4 DRVOLVO 5 DR

TOTALS:

NUMBER

1S137SI31411132011301501101

1101434953131S1913600112060

1457

AVERAGEPAYMENT

465754724299539453372589249126691003415977921

78666388

4512

1806

48181033

222059935524265331867383081208630415228

45585557

2505

4124

NUMBER

121361830481320113014

AVERAGEPAYMENT

4657547242995156446224282491896

1003415977921

786663881082

3528


86' 869710073100100100

100100

111LAV

1324749131213114ft,V0102AV

5AV

1362

48181033

2391119254672269318673830811738S0392683

40795557

2828

3794

100

100

93679692100100100958567

91100

83

93

- Model subject to the Theft Prevention Standard in 1987 only.+ Model subject to the Theft Prevention Standard in 1988 only.* Model subject to the Theft Prevention Standard both in 1987 and

55

2.2.5 Examination of Intact Recoveries Prior toSettlement

This analysis examined claims for cases in whicha stolen vehicle was recovered intact prior to the insurancesettlement. These claims form a subset of:

• All claims with intact recoveries (Section 2.2.2)• All claims with recoveries prior to settlement (Section

2.2.4).

This analysis employed the same definition of an intactrecovery as was employed previously in Section 2.2.2.

Tables 12 and 13 identify the number of claims and averagepayment by model for theft claims involving an intact recovery ofa vehicle prior to settlement for the 1983 and 1984 samplesrespectively. These tables also indicate the proportion of allvehicles recovered prior to settlement which were recovered intact.

This information is provided both by model and for the samplein aggregate.

Similar data for all claims with recoveries prior tosettlement is reproduced in Tables 12 and 13 from Tables 10 and11.

Table 12 indicates that a total of 111 out of 1012 recoveriesor 11% of all 1983 recoveries prior to settlement were intactrecoveries. A comparison of Table 6 and Table 12 indicates that111 out of 112 intact recoveries or 99% of all 1983 intactrecoveries occurred prior to settlement.

Based on the sample sizes and average costs shown in Table12, it is estimated that the average claim cost for a case in whicha vehicle was recovered either in-whole or in-part (i.e. non-intact) prior to settlement is $3,944 expressed in 1988 dollars.This would reflect cases where the condition of the recoveredvehicle was known prior to settlement and the vehicle was eitherrepaired to its pre-theft state or treated as a total loss by theinsurer. This occurred in 901 cases in the 1983 sample.

Table 13 indicates that 140 out of 1,362 recoveries or 10% ofall 1984 recoveries prior to settlement were intact recoveries.This proportion is similar to that observed in the 1983 sample.Comparing Tables 7 and 13, 140 out of 146 intact recoveries or 96%of all 1984 intact recoveries occurred prior to settlement.

Based on Table 13, it is estimated that the average claim costfor a non-intact recovery prior to settlement in 1984 was $4,228expressed in 1988 dollars. This appears somewhat higher than the$3,944 cost estimated in 1983. Thus, settlement costs for claims

56

Table Itr; Stratification of Recoveries Prior to BetUeifieiit; Intact Recoveries Dm fiti 19(11;(Payments Expressed in !9Rfi tollsrn.)

Ail RecuvRniF. Intact Recoveriesprior to Settlement -~ •-- - Prior to Settlement - —

PCT OF ALLAVERAGE PCT (IK ALL AVERAGE PRIOR

NUMBER PAYMENT RECOVERIES NUMBER PAYMENT RECOVERIESMODEL

AMERICAN MOTORSAMERICAN MOTORSAMERICAN MOTORSAUDI

«A1JDIAUDI

sBft)sfflB

*nm-BMW

BUICKfltiiCK

fcJHJJCK»BUICKsBilICKvfiiJiCK

-5-BUICK

mua+BU1CK

BUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKCAUILLAC

CADILLACCADILLAC

CADILLAC{CADILLACCHEVROLETCHEVROLET

CHEVKOLET

CHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLET'CHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLEfCHEVROLETCHRYSLER

CHRYSLERCHRYSLERCHRYSLERCHRYSLER

DATSLINDATSUNDATBUN

CilMCOkDM i l 30SPIRIT490®m m CPE OR QilATTRO 4 WD

?.?mSffijEi r ; Wi jf•JCOi

7331CENTURY ESTATECENTURY LTDELECTS) LTDM.ECiRA FAfiK AVELESA««:LESABRE ESTATEIl i iABRE L ID h CUSTG

REBAL LU)REGAL SFi;iRIVIERA LUXURYSKYHAWKSKYLARKSKYLARK LTDCIMARRONDEVILLEELDORADOH.ETWOOI) BROUGHAMGtVILLECAHARO BERLMTTACAMARO SPRT CPECAPRICE CLAlBICAVALIERCAVALIER 10CAVALIER CSCilEV. TRUCKCHEVETTECHEVL-TTE SCOOTER

•CITATION I ICORVETTESHPftLAHALIBUKONTE CARLOCORDOBALfJJARONNEW YORKER 5TH AVENE J YORKER/GRAN LEBARONNEWPORT?M51l\%?MZl

%<i%

1i?,94

135I,"•J

7315

3123i

E51e14

4738i i9a.

14i'i?.%438

ai i43

339i4b

11

1815

3iffi144W

«74

491)1

ms

SxAl3^1814RIJ6

ni9i2WJb

07355»896601b!

165636756209

rm3954

l»10420B533aii;£571230

i i?711

i^MVIS

1107J1314i?8493664eefit

165

sea581©

4150216

381514«

im

b@

(K!100

1.0010*1<M>10«1J3

10«100719J.94

1001001001001001009693

100

100889167

5010089

100l «1W10088

5010010010010090B394

000

006S

00

s0

000%%

0

0100

111iyj

100

3031i?11'T

0

10ii1000

s1

(i

0

0

0

0

07000

Ki00

0

0000000

380

00

950

40

10

50

629

S5199

38

335018S51189

5017

113

57

Table 12: Stratification of Recoveries Prior to Settlement: Intact Recoveries During 1983(Payments Expressed in 1988 Dollars)

MAKE

DATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUN*BODGE#D0D6EDODGE*DODGE»DODGEsDOEtGEDODGEDODGEFIATFIATFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORD*F0RB*FORD*FORDGM OF CANADAGMCTOYOTAHONDAHONDAHONDAHONDAHONDAISUZU

* JAGUARJAGUARJEEPJEEPLANCIALANCIALINCOLNLINCOLNKMAZDA

MAZDAMAZDA*MAZDA

MODEL

310510KING CABMAXIMAPULSARSENTRASTANZAARIESARIES/CHALLENGERCHARGER/OHNI/SHELBY TURBOCOLT/600COLT/COLT VISTA/DIPLOMDIPLOMATMIRADARAM VANSPIDER 2000X 1/9ESCORTEXP 3 DR HTCHBK TURBOFAIRMONT (FUTURA) 2 DR SDNFAIRMONT iFUTURA) 4 DR SDNGRANADA 2 DR SDNGRANADA 4 DR SDNGRANADA 4 DR SWLTD 4 DR SDNLTD 4 DR WAGON SQUIRELTD 4 SEAT SWLTD S 4 DR HTMUST 3 DR SDN HTBK/NTCHBK/GRANADA SMUSTANG k MUSTANG II 3 DR SDN HTBKTHUNDERBIRD E DR HTPONTIAC PARISIENNE BROUGHAMINCOMPLETETRUCKACCORDCIVIC 1500 HTCHBKCIVIC 4 DR SDNCIVIC SWPRELUDE CPEPICKUP 4XEXJ6LXJSCHEROKEE MPV 2 DR WAGON/WTWAGONEER MPV 4 DR WAGONETAZA6ATOCONTINENTAL 4 DR SDN MARKLINCOLN 4 DR SDN626B20W0 TRUCK62000/62800 TRUCKGLC

NUMBER

302154651234001121

El611111111111011410i52201100013116112

All RecoveriesPrior to Sett lei

AVERAGEPAYMENT

4037

45483230544193076711138110922780

14042304944387974843443455w3158913519286310910515720490948

01444

14219134476053480334669219261419

230821937

4916581646259858784863973

nent


100

10094100868310050100100

10010010010088100100100100100100100100100100100100

100501008310010010067

100100

10075100941005067

NUMBER

0003101001100000040000000

0010000010111000000010s0%0

Intact RecoveriesPrior to Settlement

AVERAGEPAYMENT

00

• 0

00

37

0

0

000

0

0

PCT OF ALLPRIOR

RECOVERIES

1925

17

3325

17

100

8

205033

S5

12

fab 1-; lei Stratification o-f Recoveries Prior to Settlement: Intact Recoveries During 1983(Payments Expressed in 1988 Dollars)

MAKE

MA2DAMERCEDES BENZ«MERCEDES BENZ*MERCEDES BENZ•MERCEDES BENZ•MERCEDES BENZsWERCURY•MERCURY«rOCUPv

MERCURtMERCURYMr "' ,YMERCURY

•MITSUBISHIsQLDf IB1LE*ff " JBILE'I (. fflDILEJ M I B I L E

OLDSMOBILEOLDSHOEILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILE+OLDSMOBILE•OLDSMOBILE•OLDSM^ILEQLDSMOBILEDLDSMOBILEOLUSMBILEsQLDSMOBILEPEUGEAT

*PLYMOIJTHPLYMOUTHPLYMOUTH•PLYMOUTHPOI'^ACPQNTIHCaPONTIAC*FWL,'•PONTIAC«P0NTIAC•PONTIAC+PONTIAC+P0NTIAC+PONTIACPONTIACPQNTIACPONTIAC•PORSCHE*PORSCHEPORSCHERENAULTRENAULT

MODEL

RX7240D S DR SDNm DT 4 DR SDN3WSD 4 DR SDN380 SEC 2 D.R CPE3S0SL E DR CPECAPRI 3 DR HTCHBKnP""^R E DR HT XR-7COUGAR 2 DR SDNLYNXMfiRQUIS BROUGHAM 4 DR SDNTOPAZ 4 DR SDN SSZEPHYR 4 DR SDNCORDIA/TREDIA98 REGENCY98 REGENCY BROUGHAMCUSTOM CRUISERCUTLASS CALAISCUTLASS CIERACUTLASS CIERA BROUGHAMCUTLASS CIERA LSCUTLASS SDNCUTLASS SUPREMEL.ILTA 88DELTA 88 ROYALEDELTA ROYALE BROUGHAMOMESAOMEGA BROUGHAMTORONADO BROUGHAMSDNCARAVELLECHAMPHORIZON tt TC3 CUSTOM/TURISMORELIANT SP ED CUSTO1000/CATALINA/PARISIENNE£000BONNEVILLEBONNEVILLE BROUGHAMFIREBIRD T/A

• FIREBIRD/FIREBIRD SEFIREBIRD/FIREBIRD SE/BQNNEVILLE LEGRAN PRIXGRAN PRIX BROUGHAMGRAN PRIX LJ & LEGRAND LEMANSLEMANSPHOENIX911924 k 928944FUE60 £ DR CPELECAR 4 DR HTCHBK

AllPrior

NUMBER

2£11E0141111100E1363112

3313

47SIS9219111S81043309169E701420111

Recoveriesto Settlement


54993577EE5E487

140811965

03143238610758

58SS33075784306336S8519

30490

2978302643873336209768282870410349467787152391970

0

18906364E876

2392408612862817

018762215

139360

6481

9210033100

10010010010092100

100100861009210089331009667100100

m1009010010010010039100

1007575

10094100100

100100100

100100100

NUMBER

100000E1020000011013113001%000001210200010120101001%

Intact RecoveriesPrior to Settlement

AVERAGEPAYMENT

0

00

0

00

015000

0

000

15

0

00

0

0

0

PCT OF ALLPRIOR

RECOVERIES

4

50100

17

1433

50833336

11

5022100

50

11

117

100

50

100

59

Table 12: Stratification of Recoveries Prior to Settletent; Intact Recoveries During 1983{payments Expressed in 1983 Dollars)

MAW-

SAABSAABSUBARUSUBARUSUBARU*T0Y0TA* TOYOTA*TOYOTATOYOTATOYOTA* TOYOTA*TOYOTATOYOTATOYOTATRIUMPH

*VOLKSWAGON*VQLKSWAGONsVOLKSWAGQNVOLKSWfiGONVOLVOVOLVOVOLVO

BASE SERIESTURBO SERIESGL6LFSTANDARDCAMRYGELICA ii SUPRACOROLLACORONACRESSIDAMR2STARLETTERCELTRUCKTR7/TR8RABBIT CONV/CABRIQLETRABBIT GOLFSCIRQCCOVANA60N2 DR4 DR5 DR

AllPrior

NUHBER

£291132544321AV

13512721351



3035194716494584

06371445828353386175669

2841682

bets102458026150153

749112853079

1001001001001001008998100100100

10083

1 (1M\vv

10070100100100100100

NUMBER

00201035011(3

11A

0300110

Intact RecoveriesPrior to Sett

AVERAGEPAYMENT

%

0

• 011

069

00

21

00

isfflsnt ———PCT OF ALLPRIOR

RECOVERIES

22

100

1111

50100

817

30

3320

TOTALS: 1012 3512 92 111 11


60

Table 13: Stratification of Recoveries Prior to Settlement: Intact Recoveries During V-PA(Payments Expressed iis 1988 Dollars)

HAKE; MODEL

AUDIAUDI*BHW»BHW*8MW-BMWBUICKBUICK*BUICK*BIJICK*BUICKsBIJICK•BUICK*BLJICKsfiUICKsfAKCK*BUICK

mm.BUICKDUICKBUICKBUICKCADILLAC*CftDIl.LflC(CADILLACCADILLAC

«CADILLACCHEVROLET*CHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLET

CHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHRYSLER*CHRYSLER9CHRYSLER*CHRYSLER*CHRYSLERDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUN

mm5000 k m3E0I52BE633CSI/533I7331CENTURY ESTATECENTURY LTDEI.ECTRA 285 If ESTATEElbTTRA LTDF1ECTRA PARK AVELESABREI.BABRE ESTATELESABRE LTD V. CUSTORESALREGAL LTDREGAL SPRTRIVIERA LUXURYSKYHAWKSKYHAIiiK LI*SKYLARKSKYLARK LVDCIMARRON"SEVILLEELDORADOFLEETWOOD BROUGHAMSEVILLECAHARQ BERLINETTACAMARO SPRT CPECAPRICE CLASSICAVALIERCAVALIER CSCHEV. TRUCKCHEVETTECHEVETTE SCOOTERCITATION IICITATION II CPECORVETTE'IHPALAHALIlftlMONTE CARLOCORDOBALASER/LASER XE/BAYTONALEBARONNEW YORKER 5TH AVENEW YORKER/BRAN LEBARONS00SX210?wa300ZX310

All Recover IDSPrior to bottlenient

ER

'd

383*n00290i?55ft"'

13402111

S4•-\L?

04u

5573315

i"*>

1319845b33

a3120

68711nft

94141115E1

AVERAGEPAYMENT

537/0b94S113631(MS

m3360

19876718R7Sc!

30»34453857

3i9fi4338

1097

mm578369S751756577184603301296117983077360E363RSbbbS£b

46914tTJ

433S31R1

041261309630456085234817196959100001913

per OFRECOVEi

100i00100100100067900

10083100

ih

8798071009a1000

100100100989S947510095891009310075100751006709488100100100100100938533100100

Intact RecoveriesPrior to Spttlement —-

PCT OF ALLAVERAGE PRIOR

RECOVERIES

4700

503313000501)0090

15

0V>

000

0

70

0

000

00

0

V!00503320

30

005009

-VI

0500000IE14

10001333

0,:77

61

Table 13s Strati-fication of Recoveries Prior to Settlement: Intact Recoveries During 1984(Payments Expressed in 1988 Dollars)

*:E

DATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUN•DODGE»DODGE*DODGEDODGE*D0D6E*DODGEDODGEDODGEDODGEDODGEFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORD*FQRD•FORD*FORD*FORD•FORDFORDFORDFORD*FORDGH OF CANADA6MCGMCGMCHONDAHONDAHONDA •HONDAHONDAHONDAISUZUISUZU

*JAGUARJEEPJEEPJEEPJEEP

MODEL

KING CABMAXIMAPULSARSENTRASTANZATRUCK REG. BED400/600ARIESARIES/CHALLENGERCHARGER/OKNI/SHELBY TURBOCOLT/600COLT/DAYTONA/DAYTONA TURBMIRAMRAM 5$ & ARROWRAM CHARGER 4X4RAM VANCOUNTRY SQUIRE SWESCORTEXP 3 DR HTCHBK TURBOFAIRMONT (FUTURA) 4 DR SDNFAIRMONT (FUTURA) SWGRANADA 4 DR SWLTD 4 DR SDNLTD 4 SEAT SWLTD CROWN VICTORIA S DR SDNLTD S 4 DR HTMUST 3 DR SDN HTBK/NTCHBK/GRANADA SMUSTANG k MUSTANG II S DR SDNMUSTANG & MUSTANG II 2 DR SDN LXMUSTANG & MUSTANG II 3 DR SDN HTBKMUSTANG/GRANADA 2 DR SDNRANGER 4X2 P/UTEMPO 2 DR SDN 6LTEMPO/LASERTHUNDERBIRD S DR SDNPONTIAC PARISIENNE BROUGHAMINCOMPLETEMPVTRUCKACCORDCIVIC 1300 HTCHBKCIVIC 1500 HTCHBKCIVIC 4 DR SDNCRX, HF, SIPRELUDE CPEIMPULSE/PICKUP 4X4PICKUP 4X5XJ6LCHEROKEE MPV 8 DR WAGON/WTCHEROKEE MPV 4 DR WAGONCJ-5 MPV 2 DRWAGONEER MPV 4 DR WAGON

AllPrior

NUMBER

3335181112154ella04l

44&4S21011110126335111727102140020113



877041781535214853345248

00

18362729

00

8976329

4502107026161926857545076535

000

318

m11971139101743354431235211083423463574

0

231810772399

33093

148420

4351

10094839510010010050831001001001001000

10050%1001001001001000

1001001001000

100100100100100100100100100701001000

10010010000670

100100100

0r

NUMBER

0202002101210000070201001010000001000017100010000000

Intact Recoveriesrior to Settl

AVERAGEPAYMENT

0

64

• 00

000

0

0

0

0

0

34

070

0

ementPCT OF ALLPRIOR

RECOVERIES

0601100

10010002510010000000160

5005000

1000

100000000

3300001426100000250000000

Table 13; Stratification of Recoveries Prior to Settlements Intact Recoveries During 1984(Payments Expressed in 1988 Dollars)

AKE

•LINCOLN•LINCOLNLINCOLN•MAZDAMAZDAMAZDA•MAZDAMAZDAaHERCEBcd BEN?MERCEDES KNZ«MF T 3 ISC•MERCfcDES Pc:NZ•MERCEDES riENZ•KERf ES BENZ'W .(Y* ithi iJRY

•i.^CURY•MERCURYMERCURYMERCURYMERCURYMERCURYMERCURY•MITSUBISHI•OLBSMOBILEsQLDSHHBILEOLDSHOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSHOBILEOLDSMOBILE+OLDSMOBILE•OLDSMOBILE•OLDSMOBILE•OLL/QBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMUMLE•QLDSMOBILEPEU6EAT .

•PLYMOUTHPLYMOUTHPLYMOUTH*PLYMOUTH•PLYMOUTHPLYMOUTH

•PLYMOUTHPLYMOUTHPLYMOUTHPONTIACPONTIACPONTIAC•PONTIAC

MODEL

CONTINENTAL 4 DR SDNCONTINENTAL 4 DR SDN MARKLINCOLN 4 DR SDN626B2000 TRUCK'

mwiem TRUCK

RX7190D 4 DR SDN24$) 2 DR SDN300 DT 4 DR SDN300SD 4 DR SDN380 SEL 4 DR SDN380SL S DR CPECAPRI 3 DR HTCHBKCOUGAR 2 DR HT XR-7COUGAR 2 DR SDNCOUGAR 4 DR SDNGRAND MARQUIS E DR SDN LSLYNXMARQUIS 4 DR SDNMARQUIS BROUGHAM 4 DR SDNZbHYR SPORTY CPE-7CORDIA/TREDIA98 REGENCY98 REGENCY BROUGHAMCUTLASS CALAISCUTLASS CIERA BROUGHAMCUTLASS CIERA BROUGHAM/SUPR BROUGHMCUTLASS CIERA LSCUTLASS SUPREMEDELTA 88DELTA 88 ROYALEDELTA ROYALE BROUGHAMFIRENZAFIRENZA BROUGHAMOMEGA BROUGHAMTQRONADO BROUGHAMSDNCARAVELLECHAMPCOLT EDL PREMIERCONQUESTGRAN FURY/CARAVELLEHORIZON & TC3 CUSTOM/TURISMORELIANT SP ED CUSTOSAPPOROVOYAGER WAGON/VANKKWCATALINA/PARISIENNE20006646 STEBONNEVILLE

AllPrior

NUMBER

3S0241013450136104131131S14IS663315551£480E2940121128213414

Recoveriesto Sett I

AVERAGEPAYMENT

716616721

3S2S283

26235357

142962177442338

492411418241970

33510335556580622323262235484959350489034793603252123126393

1060533363012416

4737146215054702313820591061103328731731171532318

ement


100100086100093980

10010010010008010010010010010010010010010010010010092100100961001001000

10067100800

10010010010010010010010010080100100

Intact RecoveriesDi-ihn

NUMBER

10010011001200000001000110020230100000000000030

0101

or to Sett I

AVERAGEPAYMENT

0

54

00

00

0

670

30

012

0

0

0

0

ement —PCT OF ALLPRIOR

RECOVERIES

3300400820033330000000330002580060405040000000000003800025025

63

Table 13: Stratification of Recoveries Prior to Settlement: Intact Recoveries During 1984(Payments Expressed in 1988 Dollars)

HAKE MODEL

All Recoveries Intact RecoveriesPrior to Settlement Prior to Settlement

PCT OF ALLAVERAGE PCT OF ALL AVERAGE PRIOR

NUMBER PAYMENT RECOVERIES NUMBER PAYMENT RECOVERIES

*PONTIAC*PQNTIAC*PQNTIAC»PONTIAC*P0NTIAC+P0NTIAC+PONTIAC+PONTIACPONTIACPONTIACPONTIAC*PQRSCHE•PORSCHEPORSCHERENAULTRENAULTRENAULTRENAULTRENAULT*SAABSAABSAABSAABSUBARUSUBARU*TOYOTATOYOTA•TOYOTA*TQYQTATOYOTA*TOYOTA*TOYOTATOYOTAGMCVQLKSWAGQNVULKSWAGON

*VOLKSWAGON«VOLKSWAG0NnVQLKSWAGQNVOLVOVOLVOVOLVO •

BONNE ,'ILLE BROUGHAMFIERO 2M4 & SE CPEFIREBIRD T/AFIREBIRD/FIREBIRD SEFIREBIRD/FIREBIRD SE/BONNEVILLE LEGRAN PRIXGRAN PRIX BROUGHAMGRAN PRIX LJ k LEPHOENIX SE/PARISIENNE BROUGHAMPONTIAC 6000PONTIAC 6000 LE911924 & 328944181 4 DR SONALLIANCE 2 DR SDNALLIANCE 4 DR SDNFUEGQ 2 DR CPELECAR 2 DR HTCHBK90©

<msBASE SERIESTURBO SERIESGLTURBO RXCAMRYCARGO VANCELICA & SUPRACOROLLACRESSIDAMR2STARLETTERCELTRUCKJETTAQUANTUM E DR/4 DRRABBIT CONV/CABRIOLETRABBIT GOLFSCIROCCO2 DR4 DR5 DR

TOTALS:

1213618304813

e$lI301401101110132474913121811400102050

1362

4657547248995156446224282491896

1003415977921

7S6663S81082

03528

18060

48181033

23911192546722693136738

3031173820392683

40795557

2828

3794

100100100868697100731001001000

1001001000

100300

1001000

1001000

93679695100100

m9585670091100.083093

0000110001000010110010020214810061000100

. 20

140

00

0

0

00

0

0

002370

20

0

49

6

000063000330000330

1002500

10000IS01550916800339000100040010


64

involving damaged vehicles recovered prior to settlement increasedfaster than the inflation rate between 1983 and 1984.

65

2.2.6 Examination of Distribution of Theft Losses

In this investigation, theft claims werestratified on the basis of their payment amount. For purposes ofthis stratification, dollar ranges were constructed in $1,000increments from 0 to $15,000. A final range of claims with valuesexceeding $15,000 was also constructed. The number of theft claimswith payouts in each cost range was identified by model for the1983 and 1984 samples. These model specific distributions arerepresented in Tables 15 and 16 respectively.

The name associated with each model number shown in thesetables is identified in Table 14. A total of 2 34 unique modelnames are identified in this table. Some of these models wereproduced in only one of the two calendar years. These models areincluded in Tables 15 and 16 and appear with some claims in onetable and zero claims in the other.

Tables 15 and 16 also provide the distribution of claims bydollar value for each sample in aggregate. This is shown at thebottom of each table. These aggregate sample distributions arerepresented graphically as bar charts in Figures 1 and 2.

Figure 1 indicates the proportion of 1983 and 1984 theftclaims in each cost range. As shown in this figure, thedistributions for both samples are similar. The number of claimswith payments between $1-1,000 exceeded the number of claims inany other cost range. This range accounted for almost 18% of theclaims in the 1983 sample and 17% of the claims in the 1984 sample.Over 8% of the 1983 claims and over 10% of the 1984 claimsexhibited costs within the deductible value of the policy andresulted in zero payments.

Figure 2 presents the cumulative cost distribution for the1983 and 1984 samples. This figure indicates that more than 50%of the claims in each sample exhibited payouts under $4,000expressed in 1988 dollars. Ninety percent of the claims in eachsample exhibited payouts under $13,000. The average payment foreach sample was shown in Tables 4 and 5 to be $5,597 for 1983 and$5,750 for 1984. Approximately 60% of the claims in each sampleexhibit claim costs below the average value while 40% of the claimsin each sample exhibit claim costs above the average value. Thusas might be expected, while there are many more claims withrelatively low-payouts, a smaller number of expensive claims causesthe average theft claim cost to increase.

66

MAKE

Table 14: hake/Model Identification Codestor Payout Distribution Tables

MODEL NUMBER

AMERICAN MOTORSAMERICAN MOTORSAMERICAN MOTORSAUDIAUDIAUDIBMWBMWBMW«;yBMWBUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKCADILLACCADILLACCADILLACCADILLACCADILLACCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHRYSLERCHRYSLERCHRYSLERCHRYSLERCHRYSLERCHRYSLER

CONCORDEAGLE 30SPIRIT40004B00 CPE OR QUATTRO 4 WD5000 h SW32JI528E5281C-33CSI/533I7331CENTURY ESTATECENTURY LTDELECTRA 225 fc ESTATEELECTRA LTDELECTRA PARK AVELESABRELESABRE ESTATELESABRE LTD & CUSTOREGALREGAL LTDREGAL SPRTRIVIERA LUXURYSKYHAWKSKYHAWK LTSKYLARKSKYLARK LTDCIMARRONDEVILLEELDORADOFLEETWOOD BROUGHAMSEVILLECAMARO BERLINETTACAMARO SPRT CPECAPRICE CLASSICAVALIERCAVALIER 10CAVALIER CSCHEV. TRUCKCHEVETTECHEVETTE SCOOTERCITATION IICITATION II CPECORVETTEIMPALAMALIBUMONTE CARLOCORDOBALASER/LASER XE/DAYTONALEBARONNEW YORKER 5TH AVENEW YORKER/GRAN LEBARONNEWPORT

12345b7S9101112131415161718192021222324252b2728293031323334353b3738394041424344454647484950515253

67

Table i4: Make/Model Identification Codes•for Payout Distribution Tables

MAKE MODEL NUMBER

DATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDODGEDODGEDODGEDODGEDODGEDODGEDODGEDODGEDODGEDODGEDQD.BEDODGEFIATFIATFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDGM OF CANADAGMCGMCGMC

200SX210ES02X300ZX310510KING CABMAXIMAPULSARSENTRASTANZATRUCK REG. BED400/600ARIESARIES/CHALLENGERCHARGER/OMNI/SHELBY TURBOCOLT/600COLT/COLT VISTA/DIPLOMCOLT/DAYTONA/DAYTONA TURBDIPLOMATMIRADARAM 5$ k ARROWRAM CHARGER 4X4.RAM VAN

SPIDER sewX 1/9COUNTRY SQUIRE SWESCORTEXP 3 DR HTCHBK TURBOFAIRMONT (FUTURA) 2 DR SDNFAIRMONT (FUTURA) 4 DR SDNFAIRMONT (FUTURA) SWGRANADA 2 DR SDNGRANADA 4 DR SDNGRANADA 4 DR SWLTD 4 DR SDNLTD 4 DR WAGON SQUIRELTD 4 SEAT SWLTD CROWN VICTORIA £ DR SDNLTD S 4 DR HTMUST 3 DR SDN HTBK/NTCHBK/GRANADA SMUSTANG & MUSTANG II 2 DR SDNMUSTANG & MUSTANG II S DR SDN LXMUSTANG & MUSTANG II 3 DR SDN HTBKMUSTANG/GRANADA 2 DR SDNRANGER 4X2 P/UTEMPO 2 DR SDN GLTEMPO/LASERTHUNDERBIRD 2 DR HTTHUNDERBIRD S DR SDNPONTIAC PARISIENNE BROUGHAMINCOMPLETEMPVTRUCK

54555b5758596061626364656667686970717273747576777879SO81828384858687888990919293949596979899IM101102103104105106107

68

Table 14: Hake/Model Identification Codesfor Payout Distribution Tables

MAKE

HONDAHONDAHONDAHONDAHONDAHONDAHONDA

isuzu .I5U2UJAGUARJAGUARJEEPJEEPJEPLANCIALANCIALINCOLNLINCOLNLINCOLNHAZDAMAZDAHAZDAMAZDAHA?OAMERCEDES BENZMERCEDES BENZMERCEDES BENZMERCEDES BENZMERCEDES BENZMERCEDES BENZMERCEDES BENZMERCURYMERCURYHERCURYHERCURYHERCURYMERCURYMERCURYHERCURYMERCURYMERCURYHERCURYMITSUBISHI0LD5H0B1LEOLDBMOBiLEOLDSHOB1I.EQI.H3M0BILEOLDSMQBILEOLDBMOBiLEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOB1LEOLDSMOBILEOLDSHOBILEOLDSMOBILE

ACCORD

civic am HTCHBKCIVIC 1500 HTCHBKCIVIC 4 DR SUNCIVIC SWC M , !«-', SIPRL1UDE CPEIMPULSE/PICKUP 4X4PICKUP 4X2XJGL

mCHEROKEE MPV S DR WAGON/WTCJ-5 MPV 2 DRWAOTCER MPV 4 DR WAGONBE IAZAGATUCONTINENTAL 1 DR SONCONTINENTAL 4 DR SDN HARKLINCOLN 4 DR SDN

mm TRUCKmm/w?M TRUCKGLCRX7190D 4 DR SDNE40D 2 DR SDN300 DT 4 DR SON360SD 4 DR SDN380 8EC S DR CPE386 SEL 4 DR SDN3S0SL 2 DR CPECAPRI 3 DR HiCHBKCOUGAR £ DR HT XR-7COUGAR H DR SDNCOUGAR 4 DR SDNGRAND MARQUIS £ DR SDN LSLYNXMARQUIS 4 DR SDNMARQUIS BROUGHAM 4 DR SDNTOPAZ 4 DR SDN 63ZEPHYR 4 DR SDNZEPHYR SPORTY CPE-7CORDIA/TREDIA% REGENCY% REGENCY BROUGHAMCUSTOM CRUISERCUTLASS CALAISCUTLASS CIERACUTLASS CIERA BROUGHAMCUTLASS CIERA BROUGHAM/SUPR BROUGHHCUTLASS CIERA LSCUTLASS SDNCUTLASS SUPREMEDELTA S3

108109110111lie!113114115lib1171181191201P.1122123124125126127ies1E913013113213313418513613713813914014114214314414514614714814S

m1511521S31541551S6157158159160161

69

Table 14: Make/Model Identification Codesfor Payout Distribution Tables

HAKE MODEL NUMBER

OLDSMOBILEOLDSMDBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEPEUGEATPLYMOUTHPLYMOUTHPLYMOUTHPLYMOUTHPLYMOUTHPLYMOUTHPLYMOUTHPLYMOUTHPLYMOUTHPQNTIACPONTIACPONTIACPONTIACPONTIACPONTIACPONTIACPONTIACPQNTIACPONTIACPONTIACPONTIACPQNTIACPONTIACPONTIACPONTIACPONTIACPONTIACPORSCHEPORSCHEPORSCHERENAULTRENAULTRENAULTRENAULTRENAULTRENAULTSAABSAABSAABSAABSUBARUSUBARUSUBARUSUBARUTOYOTATOYOTA

DELTA 88 ROYALEDELTA ROYALE BROUGHAMFIRENZAFIRENZA BROUGHAM0ME6AOMEGA BROUSHAMTORONADO BROUGHAMSDNCARAVELLECHAMPCOLT EDL PREMIERCONQUESTGRAN FURY/CARAVELLEHORIZON & TC3 CUSTOM/TURISMORELIANT SP ED CUSTOSAPPOROVOYAGER WAGON/VAN1000/CATALINA/PARISIENNE8000BONNEVILLEBONNEVILLE BROUGHAMFIERO 2M4 b SE CPEFIREBIRD T/AFIREBIRD/FIREBIRD SEFIREBIRD/FIREBIRD SE/BONNEVILLE LEGRAN PRIXGRAN PRIX BROUGHAMGRAN PRIX LJ & LEGRAND LEMANSLEMANSPHOENIXPHOENIX SE/PARISIENNE BROUGHAMPONTIAC 6000PONTIAC 6000 LE

mm STE911921 k 928944181 4 DR SDNALLIANCE E DR SDNALLIANCE 4 DR SDNFUEGO 2 DR CPELECAR 2 DR HTCHBKLECAR 4 DR HTCHBK900900SBASE SERIESTURBO SERIESGLGLFSTANDARDTURBO RXCAMRYCARGO VAN

16216316416516616716816917017117217317417517617717817918018118218318418518618718818919019119S193194195i%197198199200201202203204205206207208209210211212213214215

Table 14: Hake/Model Identification Codesfor Payout Distribution Tables

MAKE MODEL NUMBER

TOYOTATOYOTATOYOTATOYOTATOYOTATOYOTATOYOTATOYOTA .TRIUMPHVOLKSWAGONVOLKSWAGONVOLKSWAGONVOLKSWAGONVOLKSWAGONVOLKSWAGONVOLVOVOLVOVOLVOJEEP

CELICA & SUPRACOROLLACORONACRESSIDAMRSSTARLETTERCELTRUCKTR7/TR8JETTAQUANTUM 2 DR/4 DRRABBIT CONV/CABRIOLETRABBIT GOLFSCIROCCOVANA6QNE DR4 DR5DRCHEROKEE MPV 4 DR WAGON

216S17SISS1922022122SSE3SE42252262E7228229230231232£33234

71

2.2.7 Statistical Analyses of Recovery and Payout Data

The 1987 car lines subject to the parts labellingrequirements of the Theft Prevention Standard were selected on thebasis of their 1983 and 1984 theft rates. Therefore, it isgenerally expected that the models comprising the lines subject tothe standard in 1987 had higher theft rates in 1983 and 1984 thanmodels which were excluded from the standard.

What is not known is whether there was any difference in therecovery rate between the 1983-1984 high theft rate ancestors of1987 models subject to the standard and the 1983-1984 lower theftrate ancestors of 1987 models excluded from the standard.

It is also not known what if any difference existed in theaverage theft claim payouts between these two ancestor groups.

This information is important to calibrate analyses of futureinsurance data to identify the extent that any changes in theftclaim trends are attributable to the Theft Prevention Standard.

Therefore, the 1983 and 1984 claim samples were eachstratified into two groups:

9 Claims for models comprising lines which were subject tothe Theft Prevention Standard in 1987

• Claims for models comprising lines which were not subjectto the Theft Prevention Standard in 1987.

Theft and recovery data is presented for these groupings inTables 17 and, 18 for the 1983 sample and Tables 19 and 2 0 for the1984 sample. The model specific information presented in thesetables was extracted from Table 4. for the 1983 sample and Table 5for the 1984 sample. These tables also indicate the averagepurchase price of each model expressed in 1988 dollars. Theseprices were obtained from 1983 and 1984 issues of Automobile News.

In addition to this model specific information, the averagenew car price for each sample, aggregate number of thefts andrecoveries, average theft claim payment, average recovery claimpayment and percent recoveries are presented for each grouping atthe bottom of each of the tables.

For the 19.83 sample, Tables 17 and 18 indicate that therecovery rate was 77% for ancestors of lines subject to thestandard and 76% for ancestors of lines excluded from the standard.The sample sizes for these two groupings were 531 and 892 claimsrespectively. The proportions test was applied to determine whetherany statistical difference existed between these claim proportions.No statistically significant difference was detected between theseproportions at the 95% confidence level.

34

Table 17: New Car Prices, Thefts and Recoveries During 1983 - Models Subject to the Standard in ViS'i(All costs expressed in 19ffi dollars!

MAKE

AUDIBMWBMWBMWBMWBUICKDUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKetiicicCADILLACCADILLACCADILLACCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHRYSLERCHRYSLERCHRYSLERCHRYSLERDODGEDODGEDODGEDODGEDODGEFORDFORDFURDJAGUARLINCOLNMAZDAMAZDAMERCEDES BENZMERCEDES BENZMERCEDES BENZMERCEDES BENZMERCURYMERCURYMERCURYMITSUBISHIOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLOSMOBILEOLDSHOBILEOLDSMOBILE

PLYMOUTHPONTIAC

MODEL

4000 CPE OR SUATTRO 4 UD38015S8E5E8I7331ELECTRA LTDELECTRA PARK AVELESABRELESABRE ESTATELESABRE LTD it CUSTORIVIERA LUXURYDEVILLEELDORADOSEVILLECAHARO BERLINETTACAHARO SPRT CPEl.EBARONMEW YORKER 5TH AVENEW YORKER/GRAN LEBARQNNEWPORTARIESARIES/CHALLENGERCOLT/600COLT/COLT VISfA/DIPLOMDIPLOMATMUST 3 BR SDN HTBK/NTCHBK/6RANADA 3HUSTAN6 h MUOTANG II 3 DR SDN HTBKTBUNDERBIRD i> DR HTXJ6LCONTINENTAL 4 DR SDN HARK626SLC300 DT 4 DR SDN3005D 4 DR SDN380 SEC 2 DR CPE380GL 2 DR CPECAPRI 3 DR HTCIIBKCOUGAR 2 DR HT XR-7COUGAR 2 DR SDNCDRDIA/TRED1A98 REGENCY98 RE6ENCY BROUBHAMDELTA 88DELTA 38 ROV'ALtTORilNADO BROUGHHM

RELIANT SP ED CUSTOBONNEVILLE

AVERAGEPURCHASEPRICE

406661544S278682722239853145251646']i#8561R99811518217H9188302246424911114811067313211I53S813013111318481848110698106981023596779677120653543826389110547278398454411762243499969451118351183594071514216464105551078617721852710458

- Thefts ---•

NUMBER

I

6i13113193159471671947i1185111i1i1844?1191iil17241711295

AVERAGEPAYMENT

1444213S73943218869495122617350425630515072bbfeS8368974413992516446305686919480216111380911809128

69400

14441280923083274589524508487

66773140815292

03143582257425822478355576251396819994282

NUMBER

11140150

,317254941114164i,1I144I1I1011733

a014ilr!

13231210194

Recoveries •

AVERAGEPAYMENT PERCENT

1444211437874

4951PS6153334256305131665089655787051282020853762568

583048021611136217780128

69400

1444

23082943516724109487

140811965

e314858223307582232513336557077819991890

1005067"0100100731#100788183876957841008610010010050801001001001000

1009475751060

10044100100100761007571915010080

3 5

Table 17s New Car Prices, Thefts and Recoveries During 1983 - Models Subject to the Standard in 1987(All costs expressed in 1988 dollars)

HAKE

PONTIACPONTIACPONTIACPONTIACPORSCHEPORSCHETOYOTATOYOTATOYOTATOYOTAVQLKSWAGONV0LKSWA6QNV0LKSWA60N

MODEL

BONNEVILLE BROUGHAMFIREBIRD T/AFIREBIRD/FIREBIRD SEFIREBIRD/FIREBIRD SE/BONNEVILLE LE911924 & 9E8CAMRYCELICA h SUPRACOROLLASTARLETRABBIT CONV/CABRIOLETRABBIT BOLFSCIROCCO

TOTALS:

AVERABEPURCHASEPRICE

109211E0791087710877347994996E1033910393773167601S558928412041

15771

Thefts

NUMBER

55314

al33759

aa14

a531

AVERAGEPAYMENT

751160671208749952215

063716313408353781024539186150

6834

Recoveries

NUMBER

4409

a03S3451c10

a411

AVERAGEPAYMENT

74175454

E39S2215

63715063E816515910E4527976150

5174

PERCENT

80S00

64100

, 010076765010071100

77

Table IS: New Car Prices, Thefts and Recoveries During 1983 - Models Not Sub.iect to the Standard in 1987(All costs expressed in 1*988 dollars)

Thefts RecoveriesAVERAGEPURCHASE AVERAGE AVERAGE

MAKE MODEL PRICE NUMBER PAYMENT NUMBER PAYMENT PERCENT

AMERICAN MOTORSAMERICAN MOTORSAMERICAN MOTORSAUDIAUDIBUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKB"tlTBUICKBUIuKBIJICKC<v .LACu.uLLAC• .itVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHRYSLERDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNB O INDATSUNDATSUNDATSto.DATSUNDODGEDODGEDODGEFIATFIATFORDFORDFORDFORDFORD

CONCORDEAGLE 39SPIRIT

<\m5000 tt SWCENTURY ESTATECENTURY LTDREGALREGAL LTDREGAL SPRTSKYHAWKSKYLARKSKYLARK LTDCIMARRONFLEETWOOD BROUGHAMCAPRICE CLASSICAVALIERCAVALIER 10CAVALIER CSCHEVETTECHEVETTE SCOOTERCITATION IICORVETTEIMPALAMALIBUMONTE CARLOCORDOBA200SX2102802X310510KING CABMAXIMAPULSARSENTRASTANZACHARGER/OMNI/SHELBY TURBOMIRADAOMNISPIDER 2000X 1/9ESCORTEXP 3 DR HTCHBK TURBOFAIRMONT (FUTURA) 2 DR SDNFAIRMONT (FUTURA) 4 DR SDNGRANADA 2 DR SDN

889810515723511857192709864108561067811374116398642952993751419322000106436982771375606731600177672532996809471993711131101317064194027443943589231373278227153877178741047069201428012769761688757616765?8366

1311667443811415171661S12212101171223242238315IS410631132308111

30236536594731828373331639924822312727356603509165252398865553966886560426137427121555106033692651655243821502027774707403771966983498854446192293922

1404265261747730357951305O0315891351

02015553431112141111308921149

401122018323121647631121

246111

5810

318277202055202434141630273566016116523675395432793911

42613211712110733142849428727011069392422813142403771964548388854428892293922

140426524438797426954345560315391351

0670

100838371778210010050100866569500

1007510092408256506783828410010040891007010010010010067508075100100100

87

Table IS: New Car Prices, Thefts and Recoveries During 1983 - Models Not Subject to the Standard in 1987(All costs expressed in 1988 dollars!

MAKE

FORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDGM OF CANADAHONDAHONDAHONDAHONDAHONDAISUZUJAGUARLANCIALANCIALINCOLNMAZDAMAZDAMAZDAMERCEDES BENZMERCURYMERCURYMERCURYMERCURYOLDSMOBILEQLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEPEUGEATPLYMOUTHPLYMOUTHPONTIACPQNTIACPONTIACPONTIACPONTIACPONTIACPONTIACPONTIACPORSCHE

MODEL

GRANADA 4 DR SDN/MUST 2 DR SDN CQNVGRANADA 4 DR SWLTD 4 DR SDNLTD 4 DR WAGON SQUIRELTD 4 SEAT SWLTD S 4 DR HTPQNTIAC PARISIENNE BROUGHAMACCORDCIVIC 1500 HTCHBKCIVIC 4 DR SDNCIVIC SWPRELUDE CPEPICKUP 4X2XJSBETAZAGATOLINCOLN 4 DR SDNB2000 TRUCKB20M/BSSM TRUCKRX7E40D 2 DR SDNLYNXMARQUIS BROUGHAM 4 DR SDNTOPAZ 4 DR SDN GSZEPHYR 4 DR SDNCUSTOM CRUISERCUTLASS CALAISCUTLASS CIERACUTLASS CIERA BROUGHAMCUTLASS CIERA LSCUTLASS SDNCUTLASS SUPREMEDELTA ROYALE BROUGHAMOMEGAOMEGA BROUGHAMSDNCHAMPHORIZON h TC3 CUSTOM/TURISMO1000/CATALINA/PARISIENNE2000GRAN PRIXGRAN PRIX BROUGHAMGRAM PRIX U i LEGRAND LEMANSLEMANSPHOENIX944


84609411903b1191399669966102S796607164S0748074118078079395041423616502S12207210791032591261088007953086788050109001144210222107871022297721085211E908804913013786708874356604874410106113641%508949852791072292S

Thefts

NUMBER

111112120162311121223021611141224433691041423111910302241

AVERAGEPAYMENT

92863109105157204902880142196711334657719263704708221937921063441646679353367263124893662107531106243804768411151942523170297848753040551728701336638371777

0677249562026330582373343187613936

Recoveries -

NUMBER

1111111121523010111224112100312237334992111210179S71141


9286310910515. 720

490948

142194531334669219263704

121937

149

1646587S533660523577265510758

11

3063411151931483170297831882097682S287049467152390

3963128628178584

0187613936

1001001001001005010060100331001001

1001

5010050100805075100I1

751001008410010071905010025506710008990%5050100100

38

Table 18: Niw Car Prices, Thefts and Recoveries During 1983 - Models Not Subject to the Standard in 1987(All costs expressed in 1988 dollars)

HAKE

RENAULTRENAULTSAABSAABSUBARUSUBARUSUBARUTOYOTATOYOTATOYOTATOYOTATRIUMPHVOLKSWAGONVOLVOVOLVOVOLVO

MODEL

FUEGQ E DR CPELECAR 4 DR HTCHBKBASE SERIESTURBO SERIES6LGLFSTANDARDCOROLLACRESSIDATERCELTRUCKTR7/TR8VANABON2 DR4 DR5 DR

TOTALS:


114975S42126&519415864286425S7799761567375S587731260918938163S01785317323

10746

The+ts

NUMBER

S1

e311113518811371

89H

AVERAGEPAYMENT

4750648130355552E8344584

033869E4235933E90620153

749151433079

4315

Recoveries

NUMBER

i1B29113213611351

675

AVERAGEPAYMENT

064S13035194716494584

0338617562841175062»153

749112853079

3266

PERCENT

50100100678210010010040727510010010071100

76

Table 19: New Car Prices, Thefts and Recoveries During 19S4 - Models Subject to the Standard in 1987(All costs expressed in 1988 dollars)

MAKE

BMWBMWBMWBMWBUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKCADILLACCADILLACCADILLACCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHRYSLERCHRYSLERCHRYSLERCHRYSLERDODGEDODGEDODGEDODGEDODGEFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDJAGUARLINCOLNLINCOLNMAZDAMAZDAMERCEDES BENZMERCEDES BENZMERCEDES BENZMERCEDES BENZMERCEDES BENZMERCURYMERCURYMERCURYMERCURYMITSUBISHIOLDSMOBILE

MODEL

3261528E633CSI/533I7331ELECTRA SE5 It ESTATEELECTRA LTDELECTRA PARK AVELESABRELESABRE ESTATELESABRE LTD & CUSTORIVIERA LUXURYDEVILLEELDORADOSEVILLECAHARO BERLINETTACAMARO SPRT CPELASER/LASER XE/DAYTONALEBARONNEW YORKER 5TH AVENEW YORKER/GRAN LEBARON4 W / 6 WARIESARIES/CHALLENSERCOLT/600COLT/DAYTONA/DAYTONA TURBMUST 3 DR SDN HTBK/NTCHBK/GRANADA SMUSTANG & MUSTANG II S DR SDNMUSTANG & MUSTANG 11 S DR SDN LXMUSTANG & MUSTANG II 3 DR SDN HTBKMUSTANG/GRANADA 2 DR SDNTHUNDERBIRD E DR SDNXJ6LCONTINENTAL 4 DR SDNCONTINENTAL 4 DR SDN MARK

GLC190D 4 DR SDN300 DT 4 DR SDN300SD 4 DR SDN380 SEL 4 DR SDN380SL E DR CPECAPRI 3 DR HTCHBKCOUGAR E DR HT XR-7COUGAR S DR SDNCOUGAR 4 DR SDNCORDIA/TREDIA98 REGENCY


154392773434S15410E31635S1495316897118071S9981SE61SS14719612S91312535312S89104961082413457157811404711369841684161136911369H62511625116S51162511625108653686E24564E4564107856933S6S16398664459655620494741M32129141291410S30939615973

Thefts

NUMBER

IS55E12781153E71448152311210452831211S274343718147115141414

AVERAGEPAYMENT

86479887171971766712453198785595777226340545146861E8S532014635393802426166163378608556047S9331831848

05368318

133893954119772542927371661382251033543

27724147821222023385059157361141903797

E3233342

NUMBER

83310265%1526583641320189422b21110125332

es14036105131412

Recoveries •


4811363160093355

. 198772412752

4054373271606006189963301309542613096E0456085

072932188

000

318

799119754433024771661672140663151

962177442338

57361141824197

23232622

676060500

, 10086630

10081SS8S5087871006790100401007567100501000501007175100507678075861000

1001007510010086

on

Table 19: New Car Prices, Thefts and Recoveries During 1984 - Models Subject to the Standard in 1987(All costs expressed in 19S8 dollars)

MAKE

OLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEPLYMOUTHPLYMOUTHPLYMOUTHPQNTIACPONTIACPONTl At,PONTIACPONTIACPONTIfP0RL..UPORr:,iESAABTOYOTATOYOTATOYOTATOYOTAVQLKSWAGQNVOLKSWAGQNVOLKSWAGQN

MODEL

98 REGENCY BROUGHAMDELTA 83DELTA 88 ROYALETORONADO BROUGHAMCONQUESTGRAN FURY/CARAVELLERELIANT SP ED CUSTOBONNEVILLEBONNEVILLE BROUGHAMFIERO EM4 & SE CPEFIREBIRD T/AFIREBIRD/FIREBIRD SEFIREBIRD/FIREBIRD SE/BQNNEVILLE LE9119E4 & 9S390@CAMRYCELICA k SUPRACOROLLASTARLETRAPBIT CONV/CABRIOLETRABBIT GOLFSCIROCCO

TOTALS!


17218105941153118173137161035E8567104261109398101E06S120121071338330496771271310517104767992668612637942712513

15783

Thefts

NUMBER

7327111110632168271211764673E153

726

AVERAGEPAYMENT

472580863430804915054702

230928987914547E5783606662273654712161180642147091374843681459859327111

6443

Recoveries

NUMBER

612491184121372101114495320112

5?§

AVERAGEPAYMENT

354825212312630115054702

2059231846575472429953945337

786618062220552426533081

45585557

4699

PERCENT

8633£9821001008067331008188780501008277796707367

79

91

Table 20: New Car Prices, Thefts are) Recoveries During 1984 - Models Not Subject to the Standard in 1987(All costs expressed in 1988 dollars)

HAKE

AUDIAUDIBUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKBUICKCADILLACCADILLACCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHEVROLETCHRYSLERDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDATSUNDODGEDODGEDODGEFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORDFORD

MODEL

40005000 & 3WCENTURY ESTATECENTURY LTDREGALREGAL LTDREGAL SPRTSKYHAWKSKYHAWK LTSKYLARKSKYLARK LTDCIMARRQNFLEETWOOD BROUGHAMCAPRICE CLASSICAVALIERCAVALIER CSCHEVETTECHEVETTE SCOOTERCITATION IICITATION 11 CPECORVETTEIMPALAMALIBUMONTE CARLOCORDOBAS00SX810280ZX300ZX310KING CABMAXIMAPULSARSENTRASTANZATRUCK REG. BEDCHARGER/OMNI/SHELBY TURBOMIRADARAM 50 & ARROWCOUNTRY SQUIRE SWESCORTEXP 3 DR HTCHBK TURBOFAIRMONT (FUTURA) 4 DR SDNFAIRMONT (FUTURA) SWGRANADA 4 DR SULTD 4 DR SDNLTD 4 SEAT SW


lisas18785986411056108151150911639

sm873793449S5914E3122789108497E5376056048603376647664

S635810030939S1107211172109737243194732269276379206135848946800599437856783010508100831253176669074768583369411970510266

Thefts

NUMBER

243105341231537IB111178526141

105141171621314408231424132551043211

AVERAGEPAYMENT

5371004336184056486358632229433882372277200465907695248376395199241022865117469

11456813262785840

03546250695281309219137886583443552927567161632729897632475871413530118577245765359203

Recoveries

NUMBER

233Hi)41312304351694

6042413072811513IS21335619111412246642210

AVERAGEPAYMENT

5377069361840563572

. 469022294338100001097200457836402I960307734343013228640664698221269145973891

026982327823610000191387704703267020355334524827298976329587126911926857545076535

16721

PERCENT

1007510010077

, ?&10010008010071898236773010067100750695710088818667100758875837950100100671008460100671001000

92

Table 20: New Car Prices, The-fts and Recoveries During 1984 - Models Not Subject to the Standard in 1987(All costs expressed in 1988 dollars)

MAKE

FORDFORDFORDFORD6M OF CANADAHONDAHONDAHONDAHONDAHONDAHONDAISU2UISUZULINCOLNMAZDAMAZDAMAZDAMERCEDES BENZMERCURYMERCURYMERCURYMERCURYMERCURYOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSHDBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEOLDSMOBILEPEUGEATPLYMOUTHPLYMOUTHPLYMOUTHPLYMOUTHPONTIACPONTIACPONTIACPONTIACPONTIACPONTIACPONTIACPONTIACPONTIACPORSCHERENAULT

MODEL

LTD CROWN VICTORIA 2 DR SDNLTD S 4 DR HTTEMPO 2 DR SDN GLTEMPO/LASERPONTIAC PARISIENNE BROUGHAMACCORDCIVIC 1300 HTCHBKCIVIC 1500 HTCHBKCIVIC 4 DR SDNCRX, HF, SIPRELUDE CPEIMPULSE/PICKUP 4X4PICKUP 4X2LINCOLN 4 DR SDNB2000 TRUCKB2000/B2200 TRUCKRX7240D 8 DR SDNGRAND MAR8UIS 2 DR SDN LSLYNXMARQUIS 4 DR SDNMARQUIS BROUGHAM 4 DR SDNZEPHYR SPORTY CPE-7CUTLASS CALAISCUTLASS CIERA BROUGHAMCUTLASS CIERA BROUGHAM/SUPR BR0U6HMCUTLASS CIERA LSCUTLASS SUPREMEDELTA ROYALE BROUGHAMFIRENZAFIRENZA BROUGHAMOMEGAOMEGA BROUGHAMSDNCHAMPCOLT EDL PREMIERHORIZON b TC3 CUSTQM/TURISMOSAPPOROieW/CATALINA/PARISIENNE20006000 STEGRAN PRIXGRAN PRIX BROUGHAMGRAN PRIX LJ & LEPHOENIX SE/PARISIENNE BROUGHAMPONTIAC 6000PONTIAC 6000 LE944181 4 DR SDN


123E0102668074818210387941759187423817673861147312067755123552700676861223526107136847665984310185794611588108511085110274110151179086318631872190381842470886367726296706453842816289105851161610854109131162810552244889754

Thefts

NUMBER

216331

341361811121

552153217

4326

82123722241451

3851313413

AVERAGEPAYMENT

76770

1139101743318355045

069696160107775561066959931532631347972634911492

015471231955658062602152896137436455158025106061848657492314623138316010333663277117153340439253880100341597836463881082

Recoveries

NUMBER

116331

2711214010104611312163615

57023512221351

3141113213

AVERAGEPAYMENT

00

1139101743312SS3574

09580231810772099232359932312283106052541420

33510335556580624959409089S347936787866106061845120473?14623138106110332873277117153258924912669100341597792163881082

PERCENT

50100

' 100100100100791003333100500

10005008450100603310010086845083700

100100715010010050100751001008280851001005@100100

93

Table 20: New Car Prices, Thefts and Recoveries During 1984 - Models Not Subject to the Standard in 1987(All costs expressed in 1988 dollars)

MAKE

RENAULTRENAULTRENAULTRENAULTSAABSAABSAABSUBARUTOYOTATOYOTATOYOTATOYOTAvQLKSWAGONVOLKSWAGONVOLVOVOLVOVOLVO

MODEL

ALLIANCE 2 DR SDNALLIANCE 4 DR SDNFUE60 E DR CPELECAR S DR HTCHBK900SBASE SERIESTURBO SERIESGLCARGO VANCRESSIDATERCELTRUCKJETTAQUANTUM 2 DR/4 DR2 DR4 DR5 DR

TOTALS:


733483S0115105863158971271319645923411288159367463900390841568215463S180217559

11285

Thefts

NUMBER

1172111123IS25IS61111I

1122

AVERAGEPAYMENT

81470

61704503

012060481894759935971291549535228961112219843013396

5200

NUMBER

015010111313191360060

860

Recoveries •


04512

0 ,

4318103359933186208630415228

2505

3740

0100710

1000

1009210072767210000550

77

vs. 1984

There was also no statistical difference in recovery ratesbetween these two groupings in the 1984 sample. Tables 19 and 20indicate that the recovery rate was 79% for ancestors of linessubject to the standard and 77% for ancestors of lines excludedfrom the standard. The sample sizes for these two groups were 72 6and 1,122 claims respectively.

Thus both samples indicate that there is no difference in theaggregate recovery rates between ancestors of the lines subject tothe Theft Prevention Standard and ancestors of the lines excludedfrom the standard.

No statistical differences were observed between recoveryrates in the two calendar years. Three sets of comparisons wereperformed:

o 1983 aggregate recovery rate (76%, Table 4)aggregate recovery rate (77%, Table 5)

• 1983 average recovery rate for ancestors of lines subjectto the standard (77%, Table 17) vs 1984 average recoveryrate for ancestors of lines subject to the standard (79%,Table 19)

• 1983 average recovery rate for ancestors of lines excludedfrom the standard (76%, Table 18) vs 1984 average recoveryrate for ancestors of lines excluded from the standard(77%, Table 20) .

In each case, no statistical differences were found betweenthe 1983 and 1984 recovery rates.

A separate investigation was performed to identify differencesin average theft claim payments between ancestors of lines subjectto the standard and ancestors of lines excluded from the standard.The difference in average theft claim payments was $2,019 betweenthese two groups in the 1983 sample expressed in 1988 dollars,(i.e. $6,834 (Table 17) - $4,815 (Table 18)). A smaller differenceof $1,243 (i.e. $6,443 (Table 19) - $5,200 (Table 20)) was foundin average theft payments between these two groups in the 1984sample.

Thus, the average theft claim for an ancestor of vehiclesexcluded from the standard was 30% less in the 1983 sample and 19%less in the 1984 sample than the average theft claim cost for anancestor of vehicles included in the standard. Both of thesedifferences were found to be statistically significant at the 95%confidence level.

The analysis of Tables 17-20 also revealed that the averageoriginal price for ancestors of vehicles excluded from the standardwas 30% less in 1983 and 32% less in 1984 than the average new car

95

price for ancestors of vehicles included in the standard. Thesedifferences were also found to be statistically significant at the95% level.

Therefore, the models that were selected for the standard notonly exhibited higher theft rates in 1983 and 1984 than the modelsexcluded from the standard, they also exhibited a substantiallyhigher average cost to the insurer for each theft claim. Thesehigher insurance payments reflected the fact that the high .theftlines selected for the standard were also more expensive topurchase than models excluded from the standard. These resultssuggest that any decrease in theft rates for the models subject tothe standard may cause even greater proportion decreases ininsurance payouts.

96

3. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

The analyses described in the previous sections were intendedto investigate theft claim patterns for vehicles stolen during 1983and 1984. Ultimately, these investigations can provide a basis forutilizing insurance claim data to identify effects of the TheftPrevention Standard.

Analyses on 1983-1984 claim data offer an opportunity toidentify the variation in theft claim patterns that existed priorto the implementation of the Theft Prevention Standard and are thusindependent of the influence of the standard.

The investigations identified consistent results in both the1983 and 1984 samples. For example, the proportion of claimsinvolving the theft and subsequent recovery of an insured vehiclewas found to be 76% in the 1983 sample and 77% in the 1984 sample.Both claim year samples also indicated that average recovery rateswere the same for ancestors of models subject to VTN marking andthose excluded from the standard.

Both samples also indicated that theft claims for ancestorsof 1987 vehicles subject to the Theft Prevention Standard exhibitedsubstantially higher average claim payments than similar paymentsfor ancestors of vehicles excluded from the standard. Each modelyear sample also indicated that high theft lines chosen for thepart labelling requirements were on average more expensive topurchase than other lines excluded from the standard.

These investigations examined theft, payout and recoverytrends in the insurance samples. Special emphasis was placed onexamining data on vehicle recoveries considering the followingfactors:

® Condition of vehicle upon recovery (intact, total loss,etc.)

9 Time of recovery (Post, prior to settlement).

The percentage breakdown of recovery claims by vehiclecondition at time of recovery is depicted in Figure 3.- Similarly,the breakdown of recovery claims by time of recovery (prior, postsettlement) is illustrated in Figure 4.

The results presented in these Figures and other major resultsidentified in Section 2 of this report may be summarized asfollows.

An investigation of the aggregate characteristics of eachclaim sample indicated that:

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• The rate of recovery for stolen insured vehicles averaged76% in the 1983 claim sample (Table 4) and 77% in the 1984claim sample (Table 5). There is no statisticallysignificant difference between these recovery rates.

• The average payment for a theft claim was found to be$5,597 in the 1983 sample (Table 4) and $5,750 in the 1984sample (Table 5) expressed in 1988 dollars. Approximately60% of the claims in each sample exhibited claim costsbelow the average while 52% of the claims exhibited payoutsunder $4,000 (Figure 2). .

An investigation of a subset of the samples including onlyclaims for stolen vehicles which were recovered, led to thefollowing observations:

• In cases where a stolen insured vehicle was recoveredeither prior or subsequent to payment on the claim, theaverage insurance payment was $4,025 based on the 1983sample (Table 4) and $4,124 based on the 1984 sample (Table5). Costs for both samples are expressed in 1988 dollars.These payments averaged $6,622 less in the 1983 sample and$7,060 less in the 1984 sample than the average payment forclaims in which the stolen vehicle was never recovered.

• Twenty-two percent of all recoveries in the 198 3 sampleand 21% of all recoveries in the 1984 sample were totallosses. Payout for these claims averaged $7,037 and $7,151more than the average cost of a claim with recovery in the1983 and 1984 samples respectively expressed in 1988dollars (Figure 3, Tables 8 and 9).

• Intact vehicle recoveries represented 10% of all recoveriesin each calendar year sample (Figure 3, Tables 6 and 7).For purposes of this analysis, a recovery was classifiedas intact if the vehicle exhibited no damage or the costto repair the vehicle to its pre-theft state (afterdeductible) was less than $100 expressed in 1988 dollars.

• In 68% of the recoveries in the 1983 sample and 69% of therecoveries in the 1984 sample, the recovered vehiclesustained appreciable damage though insufficient to beconsidered a total loss. The average insurance costs forsuch claims was $2,323 based on the 1983 sample and $2,534based on the 1984 sample (Figure 3, Tables 8 and 9).

Recovery claims were further stratified as to whether paymentoccurred prior or subsequent to recovery. An investigation ofthese claims indicated that:

• Recoveries which occurred prior to settlement accountedfor 92% of all recoveries in the 1983 sample and 93% of

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all recoveries in the 1984 sample. Only 50% of theseclaims were settled within 30 days while 85%-90% weresettled within 9 0 days. Average payouts for theft claimsinvolving recoveries prior to settlement were $6,095 lessin the 1983 sample and $5,061 less in the 1984 sample thanaverage payouts for claims in which recoveries occurredafter settlement. These figures are expressed in 1988dollars (Figure 4, Tables 10 and 11).

0 In cases where a stolen vehicle was recovered prior tosettlement and the vehicle was not recovered intact, theaverage cost to repair the vehicle to its pre-theft stateor treat the damage as a total loss was estimated at $3,944in the 1983 sample and $4,228 in the 1984 sample expressedin 1988 dollars. These recoveries accounted for 82% of allrecoveries in the 1983 sample and 84% of all recoveries inthe 1984 sample (Figure 4, Tables 12 and 13).

The claim samples were also stratified into groups of claimsfor models which were ancestors of those vehicles subject to theTheft Prevention Standard in 1987 and claims for models which wereancestors of vehicles excluded from the Theft Prevention Standardin 1987. Comparisons of these samples led to the followingresults:

m No statistical difference was detected between the averagerecovery rates of ancestors of lines subject to the TheftPrevention Standard (Tables 17 and 19) and ancestors oflines excluded from the standard (Tables 18 and 20).

• The average theft claim payout for an ancestor of vehiclesexcluded from the Theft Prevention Standard was 3 0% lessin the 1983 sample and 19% less in the 1984 sample than theaverage theft claim payout for an ancestor of vehiclesincluded in the standard.

• The fact that ancestors of lines subject to the standardexhibited significantly higher theft claim costs thanancestors of lines excluded from the standard appears tobe directly related to the fact that the ancestors of lineschosen for the standard were significantly more expensiveto purchase than lines excliaded from the standard (Tables.17-2 0) .

• These results suggest that any decrease in theft rates forthe models subject to the standard may cause even greaterproportion decreases in insurance payouts (Tables 17-20).

It should be noted that recovery rates observed in theinsurance claim samples are substantially higher than thoserecorded by the U.S. Department of Justice. Justice Department

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figures suggest a recovery rate of 52.8% during 1983, whereas theinsurance sample for the same period indicates a recovery rate of7 6%. The difference between these figures reflect the followingfactors:


2. Justice Department figures include thefts and recoveriesregardless of the age of the vehicle. The insurance claimsample expressly includes only thefts and recoveries ofcurrent model year, one and two-year old vehicles. Onlyvehicles in these age categories will be equipped withlabelled parts at the time that NHTSA must evaluate theeffectiveness of the labelling program.

These factors suggest that older vehicles and those withouttheft coverage exhibit a substantially poorer rate of recovery thannewer vehicles and those with theft coverage. This result seemsto suggest that older vehicles are more likely to be stolen anddismantled, for their parts than newer vehicles. Therefore, anyfuture increase in recovery rates which is observed in theinsurance claim samples may be indicative of even greater increasesin the population as a whole.

If the mandatory labelling of parts encourages a reduction inthe number of automobiles stolen to provide parts, it might beexpected that insurance claim samples for calendar years after theimplementation of the parts labelling requirements (i.e. after1986) would exhibit:

a A higher proportion of intact recoveries than the 1983 and1984 samples.

• Lower repair costs for non-intact recoveries than thoseexhibited in 1983 and 1984.

• Higher recovery rates than the 76% - 77% range exhibitedin 1983-1984.

• Average theft claim payments (adjusted for inflation) whichare less than the $5,600-$5,800 figures exhibited in 1983-1984 claim samples.

Claim samples from later calendar years must be obtained andc6mpared with the results of this study to discern any impacts ofthe Theft Prevention Standard on insurance claim patterns.

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REFERENCES

1. "Motor Vehicle Theft Law Enforcement Act of 1984", House ofRepresentatives Report 98-1087, Part I, 98th Congress, 2ndSession, Washington, D.C., September 1984.

2. "Report on Motor Vehicle Theft - Section 614 - Motor VehicleTheft Law Enforcement Act of 1984", U.S. Department- ofTransportation, National Highway Traffic SafetyAdministration, Report P.L. 98-547, Washington, D.C., October1987.

3. "Vehicle Theft Prevention Standard and Selection of CoveredMajor Parts - Motor Vehicle Theft Law Enforcement Act of1984", Federal Register Vol. 50, No. 206, Washington, D.C.,October 24, 1985, pp. 43166-43192.

4 "Procedures for Selecting Lines to be Covered by the TheftPrevention Standard", Federal Register (50 FR 34831),Washington, D.C., August 28, 1985.

5. "Motor Vehicle Theft Prevention; Insurer ReportingRequirements", Federal Register Vol. 52, No. 1, Washington,D.C., January 2, 1987, pp. 59-79.

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