Analysis, Modeling & Simulation

Joe AdamoDepartment Head - Operations Analysis

Joyce WheelerManager – Operations Analysis

This document does not contain technical data as defined in the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (22 CFR 120.10) or the Export Arms Regulations (15 CFR 779.1).

Agenda

Intro to Operations Analysis

What is Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation (AM&S)?

Case Studies

Summary

Questions & Discussion

Operations Analysis

Operations Analysis is the analytical arm of

the Systems Engineering discipline. It is

the discipline of applying advanced

analytical techniques and processes to

provide information for better decision

making.

Who Does Operations Analysis?

Operations Analysts come from a variety of disciplines Aeronautical Engineering Mechanical Engineering Electrical Engineering Computer Science and Engineering Mathematics, Physics Operations Research

Key Traits are Analytical Skills, Problem-Solving Capability, and Communication Skills

Degree

Masters53%

BS/BA42%

PhD5%

Approximately Approximately 600 Operations 600 Operations

Analysts in Analysts in Boeing IDS Boeing IDS

Approximately Approximately 600 Operations 600 Operations

Analysts in Analysts in Boeing IDS Boeing IDS

What Do Operations Analysts Do?

The Realm of Designers – Measures of Performance Range Speed Payload

The Realm of Ops Analysts – Measures of Effectiveness

Survivability Number of Targets Detected Lethality – Number of Targets Destroyed Number of Information Packets Sent/Received

and Cost/Affordability

Ops Analysts Work with the Design Team to Ops Analysts Work with the Design Team to Ensure the System Can Do It’s Intended JobEnsure the System Can Do It’s Intended Job

An Aircraft Example:

Tools and Methods

Commonly Used Techniques Modeling and Simulation Linear and nonlinear programming Queuing and other stochastic-

process models

Mathematical Modeling - Nearly all of these techniques involve the construction of a model that attempts to capture the behavior of the system being studied

Statistical methods

Econometric methods

Decision analysis

Analysis Modeling and Simulation Defined

Analysis: Evaluating and assessing system performance, processes, and relationships to determine measures of importance such as effectiveness, performance, and reliability; typically using the results from models and simulations

Modeling: Creating representations (models) of systems including their processes, behaviors, and interactions

Simulation: Using (executing) models over time to investigate system performance

Model vs. Simulation

Simulation - Execution of model over time

Example: Simulating the Earth’s Rotation

Model - Representation of the physical entity

Example: Static Model of the Earth

Modeling and Simulation

Allows the analyst to conduct trade studies and answer “What if?” questions

Can assign values to the different model components and clarify the relationships among them

Values can be altered to examine what may happen to the system under different circumstances.

Inputs are modified and the model re-run to identify the best of levels for variables or combinations of design features

Voice of the

Customer

DecisionAnalysis

ConstructiveSimulation

Interactive DigitalSimulation

VirtualEnvironment

Requirements DefinitionCustomer InvolvementManagement Understanding

Quick ToolsCustomer-approved simulations

Workload AssessmentSelected Controls/ DisplaysPilot in the Loop

Spectrum of Models and Simulations

IWARS

Benefits of AM&SP

erc

ent

Product Life Cycle Phases

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

15% Cost Expended 85% of Cost Committed

70

8595

5

30Brief Window of Opportunity

Percent of Life-CycleCost Committed

Percent of ProgramCost Expended

ConceptRefinemt.

TechDevelop.

System Develop and Demonstration

Production and Operations and Support

Early Emphasis on Analysis Prevents Costly Early Emphasis on Analysis Prevents Costly Design Changes Later in The Development Design Changes Later in The Development

CycleCycle

Demo

CheapFoods Distribution Center

CheapFood Supermarkets has several stores in the St. Louis area.

However, each is supplied from a different warehouse out of state.

To cut costs, the owner of CheapFoods has decided to build a warehouse in the St. Louis area.

CheapFoods Distribution Center

Ice Cream

Meat

Twinkies

CheapFoods only sells three items. However, each has to travel on its own truck because of certain constraints.

Requires freezer truck.

Requires refrigerator truck and is perishable.

Doesn’t require special truck and lasts forever.

Item Requirements: Supply Cost:

3x$

2x$

1x$1

2

3

Copyright©2006 Boeing. All Rights Resrved.

CheapFoods Products

CheapFoods Territory

Great! Now, supply costs for the supermarkets are at a minimum.

The owner can go home and buy that Ferrari he’s been wanting and the operations engineer can go back to his desk.

This was a VERY simplified example but it shows how a This was a VERY simplified example but it shows how a model can help provide insight into problem and identify model can help provide insight into problem and identify

a solutiona solution

Problem Solved!

When Do You Use AM&S?

Customer Needs

Analysis

Define/DevelopConcept

Define Mission/ Function

Requirements

Define System Requirements &

Concepts

Perform Preliminary Definition

Production Support

Voice of the Customer / Needs Analysis

Requirements Analysis / Trade StudiesCost & AffordabilityEffectiveness Analysis / Trade Studies

Analysis of AlternativesAdvanced Supportability

Impact of TechnologiesCompetitive Assessment

Create New Business Capture New

Business Keep It Sold

AM&S is Needed Across the Product Life CycleAM&S is Needed Across the Product Life Cycle

PerformDetailed

Definition

Product Life CycleProduct Life Cycle

Test & Evaluation

Decision AnalysisDecision Analysis

Decision Analysis Provides More Customer Interaction and a Better Product

Decision Analysis Provides More Customer Interaction and a Better Product

Multiple Suppliers

MultipleMultipleCustomersCustomers

ConflictingInterests

MultipleObjectives

ConsensusCommon TerminologyList of Potential Trades

PrioritiesDocumentation

Wants

Needs Desires

Wishes

Must Haves

Decision Analysis Techniques Are ToolsUsed to Solve Complex Problems

Through a Structured Process

Decision Analysis Techniques Are ToolsUsed to Solve Complex Problems

Through a Structured Process

CompetingAlternatives

Multiple Disciplines

Customer Needs Analysis / Requirements Definition

Understand Customer Needs Operational Requirements Budget constraints Network Environment (FAA, DOD, etc.)

Begin long term Customer Relationship

Deriving Requirements Developing plans for product design Ensuring Customer involvement throughout product life cycle

PointEstimates

Ris

k F

acto

r

Low

Med

Hig

h

UCAV ATDPhase I

UCAV ATDPhase II

RR&OE EMD

1998

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

1999

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2000

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2001

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2002

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2003

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2004

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2005

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

Phase II Start EMD Start

Flt Demo 1 Flt Demo 2 Flt Demo 3 Flt Demo 4

RR&OE StartLast revision:

Flt Demo 5

Phase II End

UCAV decision aids flight demo

Deliver B-2 weapondelivery GWIS

JSF/UCAV Commonality Study

Establish Common AvionicsDevelopment Group

DEMPC UDS Formation Taxi/Flight (fixed geom, pos sep algorithms)

UDS Coordinated motion, variablegeometries / deconfliction algorithms

Global theater multi-level networking demo

BOLDSTROKE demos

Single simulatedvehicle distributedcontrol lab demo

Real-time software architecture& design demo

UCAV decision aids lab demo(contingency management)

Real-time distributed processing

AJ/LPI LOS C2 Demo

Software reuse metrics tracking

Demo of OMP & IntelligentMaintenance Aids /PMT & IMSS

Lab & flight demo - OMP/mission/vehiclesystems integration

AT3 or PLAID test on UCAV

Software reuse metrics tracking

SAR flight teston UCAV

Multi-sensor multi-source data fusion

AJ/LPI BLOS C2 -AJ GPS Demo

Air traffic mgt demo

Decision aids foroperator handofflab demo

Automated dynamic missionreplanning flight test demo

Drop multiple pre-planned smallbombs from MBR with full SMS

UDAS Algorithmic Control Flight Test Demo(Multi-Vehicle Coordinated Flight, CollisionAvoidance, Sensor Planner, Autorouter)

Loss of comm contingency flight demo Supplier software productivity demo

PHM/OMP

Fallback:

SuppliersBoeing

UCAV ATD RR&OEGov’t S&T

UCAV ATD Phase II

UCAV ATD Phase I

} UTP

Primary: Fully integratedsoftware functionality.

Decreased softwarefunctionality.

Unmanned Combat Air VehicleAdvanced Technology Demonstration

UCAV - ATD

Phase II - Affordability / LCC Plan

Prepared by:

David McCaughey (Boeing)

Concurred by:

Kurt Bausch (Boeing)

Steve Rast (SAIC)

Approved by:

Phil Panagos (Boeing)

Lt Col Michael Leahy (USAF)

AffordabilityPlan

$ $

HistoricalRegression

SupplierOptions

Unit C

ost JSF

UCAV

1/3 the cost of JSF

O&

S C

ost F-16

UCAV

75% Reduction from F-16

Time

$

CostTargets

Time

$

Time

$

Development /Investment Plans

Time

$

Focus:•System Cost Drivers

•Figures of Merit

•Effectiveness & Affordability Balance

• Investment Planning

CostUncertaintySimulation

LCC Probability

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

EMDProdO&S

$$

Kurt Bausch314-232-6917

PointEstimates

Ris

k F

acto

r

Low

Med

Hig

h

UCAV ATDPhase I

UCAV ATDPhase II

RR&OE EMD

1998

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

1999

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2000

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2001

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2002

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2003

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2004

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2005

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

Phase II Start EMD Start

Flt Demo 1 Flt Demo 2 Flt Demo 3 Flt Demo 4

RR&OE StartLast revision:

Flt Demo 5

Phase II End

UCAV decision aids flight demo

Deliver B-2 weapondelivery GWIS

JSF/UCAV Commonality Study

Establish Common AvionicsDevelopment Group

DEMPC UDS Formation Taxi/Flight (fixed geom, pos sep algorithms)

UDS Coordinated motion, variablegeometries / deconfliction algorithms

Global theater multi-level networking demo

BOLDSTROKE demos

Single simulatedvehicle distributedcontrol lab demo

Real-time software architecture& design demo

UCAV decision aids lab demo(contingency management)

Real-time distributed processing

AJ/LPI LOS C2 Demo

Software reuse metrics tracking

Demo of OMP & IntelligentMaintenance Aids /PMT & IMSS

Lab & flight demo - OMP/mission/vehiclesystems integration

AT3 or PLAID test on UCAV

Software reuse metrics tracking

SAR flight teston UCAV

Multi-sensor multi-source data fusion

AJ/LPI BLOS C2 -AJ GPS Demo

Air traffic mgt demo

Decision aids foroperator handofflab demo

Automated dynamic missionreplanning flight test demo

Drop multiple pre-planned smallbombs from MBR with full SMS

UDAS Algorithmic Control Flight Test Demo(Multi-Vehicle Coordinated Flight, CollisionAvoidance, Sensor Planner, Autorouter)

Loss of comm contingency flight demo Supplier software productivity demo

PHM/OMP

Fallback:

SuppliersBoeing

UCAV ATD RR&OEGov’t S&T

UCAV ATD Phase II

UCAV ATD Phase I

} UTP

Primary: Fully integratedsoftware functionality.

Decreased softwarefunctionality.

Unmanned Combat Air VehicleAdvanced Technology Demonstration

UCAV - ATD

Phase II - Affordability / LCC Plan

Prepared by:

David McCaughey (Boeing)

Concurred by:

Kurt Bausch (Boeing)

Steve Rast (SAIC)

Approved by:

Phil Panagos (Boeing)

Lt Col Michael Leahy (USAF)

AffordabilityPlan

$ $

HistoricalRegression

SupplierOptions

Unit C

ost JSF

UCAV

1/3 the cost of JSF

O&

S C

ost F-16

UCAV

75% Reduction from F-16

Time

$

CostTargets

Time

$

Time

$

Development /Investment Plans

Time

$

Focus:•System Cost Drivers

•Figures of Merit

•Effectiveness & Affordability Balance

• Investment Planning

CostUncertaintySimulation

LCC Probability

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

EMDProdO&S

$$

Kurt Bausch314-232-6917

Life Cycle Cost/Total Ownership Cost Design to Cost

Best Value

AffordabilityAffordability

Cost-Effectiveness Trades

Analysis of Alternatives

Work with customer to identify design, configuration, or approach alternatives

Evaluate operational effectiveness of each alternative

Evaluate cost considerations for each alternative Compare cost and performance for each

alternative Provide customers with insight to desired options Provide justification and support for selecting the

preferred alternative

National Air Space - Wide Delay / Capacity Analysis for BCA Flight Operations Strategy

Analysis of Alternatives

Statement of Problem and Alternatives

• Quantify, in terms of reduced system delays, the benefits of the alternative airport capacity-increasing concepts

Alternative 1: Navigation improvements

Alternative 2: Alternative 1 plus landing system improvements

Alternative 3: Alternative 2 plus Air Traffic Control (ATC) improvements

Modeling Approach

Boeing National Flow Model (NFM)

National Air Space (NAS)-wide traffic analysis for a single day

Simulation with a network of queues

Queues for capacitated elements

Input flight schedules and capacities

Output delay statistics

Directly addressed delay propagationNFM Network of

Queues

Assumptions

Used Current Market Outlook-based future schedule generation capability to analyze traffic levels for y2000, 2010, 2015, and 2020

Annualized results by taking the weighted average of six “representative” days

Assumed no airline schedule re-planning, including no flight cancellations

Conclusion and Recommendations

Successfully supported benefits analysis comparing the relative effectiveness of the alternatives

ATC improvements (associated with Alt 3) were shown to have the greatest benefit

The 20-25% capacity increases of Alt 3 are magnified into a 50% reduction in delays when confronted with y2020 traffic

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2000 2010 2015 2020

Year

Av

e A

rriv

al D

ela

y (

min

)

baseline

alt1

atl2

alt3

Better

Benefits to Stakeholders

Methodology can be used to show how capacity increases translate to end-user benefits in terms of decreased delays

Methodology is more credible than alternative approaches because it considers delay propagation, airport inter-dependencies and weather conditions correlated between airports

Helps direct executive-level decision making in terms of which alternatives are most cost-effective to pursue

Helps BCA to price avionics products Helps influence air traffic service providers to improve system

performance so Boeing can sell more airplanes Provides analytical evidence of benefits that may be used

in presentations to airline customers

• Prognostics & Health Management

• Opportunistic maintenance

• Interactive Tech Manuals

• Prognostics & Health Management

• Opportunistic maintenance

• Interactive Tech Manuals

• Flexible support• Flexible support

• Proactive manufacture

• Proactive supply

• Autonomic distribution

• Spares usage & trends

• Projected spares needs

POLPipelines

CODResupply

GroundDeliveries

Repair&

Overhaul

AircraftVehicle

EquipmentGeneration &Maintenance

IntermediateRepairOEM

• 24/7 Response centers

• Digital Engineering Links

• 24/7 Response centers

• Digital Engineering Links

Advanced Supportability AM&S

Supply Chain Management

Maintenance Management

Analysis

Supply Management

Analysis

NASA Cargo Processing for the Shuttle and Space Station

Multi-Purpose Logistics Module(MPLM)

Assembly Process

Statement of Problem

With the elements of the International Space Station being delivered to Earth orbit, Multiple cargo missions were needed

NASA experienced complex delays and problems in loading the MPLM and processing cargo for the Shuttle missions

Needed to find the problem areas and test potential solutions

Potential Alternative Solutions

Current process had not yet impacted a Shuttle launch date Excessive overtime and “last minute

heroics” to meet schedule

Either continue current process or find alternative

Complete “re-write” of current procedures and processes at high cost

Determine problem areas and test solutions

Modeling Approach

Developed model to replicate current processes including current delay factors

Used Monte Carlo to replicate process performance ranges

Showed sensitivity of each process step to change and effect on overall process efficiency

Tested potential changes in process and formulated course of action for correction

Conclusion and Recommendations

Determined a 60% increase in efficiency to meet established schedules was possible

Identified process areas to target and tested possible solutions

Replicated new process changes

Recommended four significant changes in cargo processing – low cost with high return

Increased Efficiency Led to Boeing Win on Renewal of Increased Efficiency Led to Boeing Win on Renewal of Cargo Processing Contract at Kennedy Space CenterCargo Processing Contract at Kennedy Space Center

Advanced Supportability AM&S Benefits

Help identify, evaluate and integrate new technologies to aid support concepts

Identify candidate new support options to improve response time and reduce cost

Explore Sustainment options early Identify required spares and staging requirements Experiment with and predict support requirements Ensure support options are well explored Demonstrate to customer benefits of support plan

Test & Evaluation (T&E): Virtual Integrated Simulation Network

Concept of Operations Systems-of-Systems Operators Interoperability Tactical S&R/C2/BM\ Linked to FCS Joint

Virtual Battlescape

Level 3: Operational Level 3: Operational LevelLevelBICBIC

Level 3: Operational Level 3: Operational LevelLevelBICBIC

FAA Advanced NCO

Command & Control BMC4ISR Operators Interoperability

Level 2: Tactical Level 2: Tactical Level Level VWCVWC

Level 2: Tactical Level 2: Tactical Level Level VWCVWC

Level 1: Systems LevelLevel 1: Systems LevelFlight Sim., Mesa, ITDL ,VWC Flight Sim., Mesa, ITDL ,VWC Huntsville, Philadelphia, CoSHuntsville, Philadelphia, CoS

Level 1: Systems LevelLevel 1: Systems LevelFlight Sim., Mesa, ITDL ,VWC Flight Sim., Mesa, ITDL ,VWC Huntsville, Philadelphia, CoSHuntsville, Philadelphia, CoS

Operators AWACS Canard Rotor Wing Space Based Radar /

Space Assets Unmanned Combat Air

Vehicle / UAV

Virtual T&E Benefits

Work with customer to anticipate problems with design parameters

Verify that detailed design meets customer requirements

Understand sensitivity to performance and cost

Anticipate problems before flight test

Predict Test & Evaluation performance

Minimize live test through virtual T & E and reduce overall test and evaluation cost

F/A-18 Saved 155 Test Flights F/A-18 Saved 155 Test Flights through Judicious Use of Virtual through Judicious Use of Virtual

T&ET&E

Production Design AM&S

Paint Prep Facility Layout

Graphite Lay-upProduction Area

Process Simulatio

n

Anticipate and correct Producibility problems Model production flow Identify bottlenecks Identify recommended changes to production

line Experiment with production improvements

without interfering with current production schedule

GP42656027.ppt

Production Design AM&S Benefits

This document does not contain technical data as defined in the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (22 CFR 120.10) per 125.4(b)(13) or the Export Arms Regulations (15 CFR 779.1) APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE 12/13/2004

AM&S Summary

Benefits of AM&S

Economical method of testing a broad array of “What Ifs”

Provides information to help balance Performance and Cost

Enables the demonstration of baseline capabilities under a wide variety of environments/scenarios

Provides the customer a consistent and transparent basis for your decisions

Strengthens the customers perception of how decision are made at Boeing

Competitive Advantage

AM&S provides an early understanding of system capabilities, performance, and effectiveness

AM&S provides information as to which design features or system capabilities “buy” their way on to the system - Cost as an Independent Variable (CAIV)

Simulation allows head to head comparison of competitive designs before downselect

Simulation provides the customer with the opportunity to experience how the product will perform

AM&S Allows the Customer to “See” How the System Will AM&S Allows the Customer to “See” How the System Will PerformPerform

Questions?

Contact Info

Joe Adamo 314-233-2688Joseph.a.adamo@boeing.com

Joyce Wheeler 314-232-9322Joyce.a.wheeler@boeing.com