Analysis for ENPI countries of Social and Economic Benefits of Enhanced Environmental Protection...

Analysis for ENPI countries of Social and Economic Benefits

of Enhanced Environmental ProtectionEuropeAid DCI-ENV/2009/225-962

Climate Change (CC)Impacts & Adaptation

Alistair HuntDepartment of Economics

University of BathUK

+44(0)1225.38.32.44e-mail: [email protected]

Overview of Climate Adaptation presentation

• CC impacts as an environmental hazard• CC impacts in the ENPI East Regional context• Outline of Assessment Method• Results

– Qualitative– Quantitative

• Conclusions: Next steps for policy use

23-24.06-2011 Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau 2

CC Impacts – Environmental Hazard

• CC increasingly recognised as significant hazard in all ENPI East countries.

• Accumulating evidence showing currently observed CC impacts in many sectors, including water resources, coastal regions, human health, forestry, agriculture, critical infrastructure and ecosystems.

• Impacts are cross-sectoral and projected to increase in future time periods


Climate change adaptation

• Adaptation: changes to natural sytems or human practices in response to actual/expected climatic change or its effects.

• Example of adapation measure in agriculture: adoption of crop varieties that tolerate better drought or water

• CC mitigation: practices that reduce the probability of climate change by reducing atmospheric concentrations of GHG, e.g. cleaner energy.

23-24.06-2011 Final Project Event:ENPI-East , Chisinau

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CC Impacts – Drivers

• GHG (CO2, and equiv.) emissions from fossil fuel combustion, deforestation, agriculture and industrial practices (+ natural phenomena) result in atmospheric warming:

Global average temperatures risen since mid-20th century

• Global sea-level rise (SLR) observed to date• Increase in frequency of some extreme weather events

observed• Uncertainty remains in CC modelling


CC Impacts: Overview


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Atmosphere / cryosphere / sea

Potential Impacts of Climate Change

Ecosystem conditions and supporting services

Impact on Ecosystem services

Provisioning (Food, Freshwater, Wood/fiber, Fuel)

Regulating(Climate, Flood, Diseases, Water purification)

Cultural

Economic impacts

Infrastructures and physical capital(Damages, Losses)

Production and Consumption(Processes, consumer behaviour, Growth potential,

Variability/disruptions activity)Employment

Storms

Floods

Water scarcity droughts

Species phenology

Water quality

Forest fires

Soil degradation

Species distribution

Permafrost/ice melting

Social Impacts

Health (Mortality, Morbidity, Labour productivity)Distributive impacts (Social groups, Regions)

Resource conflictsMigrations

Social fabricGovernance

Greenhouse gases concentration

Temperature (means & extremes)

Precipitation(means & extremes)

Sea level rise

Ground level ozone

Clim

ate

Ch

an

ge

Sc

en

ari

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ENPI-East regional Context

• Regional climate effects include:– Mean temperature ↑ (0.41C/decade from 1979) up to +

5.5C by 2100– frequency of extreme weather events, particularly

intense rainfall events, has increased in recent decades: floods

– Summer rainfall decreasing– Global sea level rise

• Identified trends likely to be exacerbated by future climate change


Case Study: Azerbaijan

• Sea level rise: Caspian Sea coastline vulnerable to fluctuations in water levels e.g. Absheron Peninsula, heavily populated.

• Water resource availability and scarcity: availability is forecasted to fall by around 25% by 2030

• Increased risk of flooding: both inland and along the Caspian Sea coast

• Increased frequency and severity of high temperature events: most significant in urban heat

islands


ENPI East regional context

• Impacts: Multi-sectoral; mainly negative; predominantly in urban areas, where residential areas close to industry

• Trends: exacerbation of those observed to date, though uncertainty over decades to 2100 since rate and extent of CC not known

• Previous studies in other world regions, plus ENPI national studies, show significant benefits of climate impact reductions by implementing measures to reduce impacts = climate change adaptation


Project Method (1)

• Benefits assessed under the project: those resulting from adaptive actions to 2020 and future decades.

• The selected CC impacts are those selected as priorities by project experts; no comprehensive coverage of all potential impacts


Method (2)

• Qualitative assessment– Describe various forms of impacts resulting from CC

and of possible actions to reduce the impacts – Categorise benefits of adaptation actions in terms of:

• Economic• Social• Environmental• Health

– Data from in-country reviews & other assessments


Method (3)

• Quantitative assessment– Data on historical analogues of extreme weather events

likely to become more frequent• May be available from media reports and

monitoring/emergency service agencies

– Modelled impacts and benefits of adaptation action: from existing analyses and new estimates of effectiveness of adaptation measures.


Method (4)


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(B) Total future damages with projected baseline

Damages from flooding in area of interest

(e.g. average annual total market plus non-market

damages of flood events)

Time2000 2030 2050 2080

Increment in residual total damages relative to today

(impacts of climate change and socio-economic change not

adapted to because either not economic or not feasible)

(C) Total future damages with projected climate

change and baseline

(A) Total future damages with static

baseline

(D) Total future damages (projected climate change

and baseline ) with planned adaptation

Gross benefit of planned adaptation ( reduction in

average annual total damages from – e.g., increasing

standards of flood defenses)

Level of current total damages

Summary of Identified Climate Change Impacts: ENPI East Countries


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Climate VariableDirect Impact (Sectoral/Cross-sectoral) Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Georgia Moldova Russia Ukraine

Temperature Means Ecosystems X X X X Energy X

Temperature Variability Health X X X X X

Precipitation Means Water - resources X X X X X

Water - desertification X X

Water - Agriculture X X X X

Precipitation Variability Forest fire X Infrastructure/Floods X X X X X Sea Level Rise Mean Coasts X X X X

Results from the BAs for ENPI East countries (1): qualitative


Environmental benefits Description

Ecosystem condition improvements

- Development of protected corridors for species migration is being promoted on a regional basis.

- Pro-active forest management strategies being developed to protect diversity of wood species and composition of forests; as well as the accessibility of forests for population recreation purposes and role of forests in fire control.

Results (2)


Health benefits Description

Lower incidence of acute health impacts

- The introduction of heat warning systems in urban areas should be effective in reducing the mortality and morbidity consequences of vulnerability to heat-waves.

- Disease monitoring systems may be used to contain the spread of vector-borne diseases that may spread as a consequence of flood events or changes in temperature vectors.

Results (3)


Social benefits Description

Improved quality of life Reduced health effects

Investments in water, soil and coastal restoration for adaptation purposes may help to improve community well-being and provide new opportunities for employment and recreation.

Results (4)


Economic benefits Description

Protect current production. - Adaptation to threats to agricultural yield from water scarcity, through more efficient management practices would result in some protection of farm incomes and local economies.

- Increase in demand for products and processes that result in greater adaptation, e.g. Investment in coastal defence systems boosts construction sector.

Exploit new opportunities Increase in tourism and associated expenditures in local areas. These tourism benefits will be realised if, for example, coastal protection and management reduces the threat to coastal amenities

Case study: Moldova – qualitative benefits

• Benefits of adapting to reduced water resource availability - from reduced water use or investment into more secure supply - can be found in facilitating its uses.

• Social/economic benefits:– Increased availability secures growing & marketing of food. – Employment opportunities in agricultural sector maintained – Considering the impact of locally grown goods on food prices,

the maintained yields of crops secure a competitively and socially desirable pricing.

• Health benefits: Food security/clean drinking water sources lead to an improved health and the avoidance of malnutrition and related diseases.

• Positive environmental benefits in slowing down land erosion.


Summary of Identified Benefits from CC Adaptation: ENPI East Countries

Benefit Source of Benefit Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Georgia Moldova Russia Ukraine

Health Heatwave - respiratory/cardio morbidity/mortality

X X X Environmental Coastal protection - wetlands X Forest protection X X Biodiversity Plans implementation X X XEconomic Investment in flood protection X X X X Coastal protection - salinisation

Investment in water storage &efficiency inc. Ag X X X X

Energy savings X Agricultural benefits - temperatures X X Tourism benefits - temperatures X XSocial Coastal restoration - community X

Arising from other categories (Ec., Soc., and Env) X X X


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Quantitative benefits: Case Study

• Armenia: Projected volume of snow ↓ 7-11% by 2030,

→ water balance of Lake Sevan will fall significantly.

→ river flow will reduce by 0.6 billion cubic meters by 2030.

→ areas needing irrigation will expand, otherwise:

→ a decline of 8-14% in the yields of the main agriculture crops is projected (9-13% for cereals, 7-14% for vegetables, 8-10% for potato and 5-8% for fruits).

• Benefits of investment in effective irrigation (adaptation measure):

agricultural yield losses prevented


Conclusions (1)

• Benefits of reducing CC Impacts in Eastern ENPI countries likely in:– Water resource use (domestic, industry, agriculture)

• Resulting from, e.g. technological measures including:– reduction of losses in the irrigation and drinking-household water

supply system through repairs of the systems and pipelines; – accumulation of moisture (water) in irrigated fields through

storage of snow or snow melt water; – replenishment of moisture through early spring sowing of crops

in rows, deepening irrigation ditches and using polyethylene covers


Conclusions (2)

• Benefits of reducing CC Impacts in Eastern ENPI countries likely in:– Coastal areas (settlements, infrastructure, ecosystems)

• Resulting from, e.g.– construction and maintenance of coastal protection measures– Appropriate land use zoning


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Conclusions (3)

• Benefits of reducing CC Impacts in Eastern ENPI countries likely in:– Areas of flood vulnerability ((property, infrastructure, human

health, agriculture)

• Resulting from, e.g.• Investment in higher dikes• Appropriate land use zoning


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Conclusions (4)

• Benefits of reducing CC Impacts in Eastern ENPI countries likely in:• Urban Heat Islands (health risks of heat-waves)

– Resulting from, e.g.• Heat alert systems implementation• Awareness raising re. need for continual hydration• Investment in “cool rooms”


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Conclusions (5)

• CC Adaptation Benefits exacerbate those identified in other parts of BA

• Significant uncertainty in each part of the impact pathway (∆ in climatic variable –exposure - impact)

• BA project under-estimates since does not include all CC Impacts.


Recommendations

• Dissemination of these results should raise awareness and add impetus to need for increased planned adaptation

• Further country-specific analysis should be complemented by looking at costs and benefits effects of planned adaptation over vulnerable populations


Outstanding questions

• What do you think are the best ways of using these results in the ENPI-East region and in your respective countries in particular?

• What additional information would you find helpful in interpreting and disseminating these results?


Thank you for your attentionwww.environment-benefits.eu

Project Analysis for ENPI countries of social an economic benefits of

enhanced environment protection (DCI-ENV/2009/225-962)

Analysis for ENPI countries of Social and Economic Benefits of Enhanced Environmental Protection...

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