ANALYSING EFFECTS OF MALFUNCTIONS ON THE PERFORMANCE OF UMTS RADIO ACCESS NETWORKS
Analysing Historical Performance
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Transcript of Analysing Historical Performance
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Reorganise the financial statements to reflect economic, instead of accounting, performance.
Measure and analyse the company’s return on invested capital (ROIC) and economic profit to evaluate the company’s ability to create value
Break down revenue growth into four components: organic revenue growth, currency effects, acquisitions and accounting changes
Assess the company’s financial health and capital structure to determine whether it has the financial resources to conduct business and make short-and long-term investments
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Separate operating performance from non-operating items and the financing obtained to support the business.
ROIC and Free Cash Flow (FCF) are independent of leverage and focus solely on the operating performance of the business.
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OA +NOA = OL + (D +DE) + (E + EE)◦ OA = Operating assets◦ NOA = Non-operating assets◦ OL = Operating liabilities◦ D = Debt◦ DE = Debt equivalent◦ E = Equity◦ EE =Equity equivalents
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Invested Capital +NOA = Total Funds Invested = (D+DE) + (E + EE)
Invested capital = OA – OL
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ACCOUNTANT’S BALANCE SHEET
Previous year Current
year
Liabilities and Equity
Share capital 50 50
Retained earnings 115 200
Interest-bearing debt 225 200
Accounts payable 125 150
Total liabilities and equity 515 600
Assets
Net PPE 300 350
Equity investments 15 25
Inventory 200 225
Total assets 515 600
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INVESTED CAPITAL
Previous year Current year Net PP&E 300 350 Inventory 200 225 Accounts payable (125) (150) Operating working capital 75 75 Invested capital 375 425 Equity investments 15 25 Total funds invested 390 450 Share capital 50 50 Retained earnings 115 200 Interest-bearing debt 225 200 Total funds invested 390 450
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Interest is not subtracted from operating profit. It is considered a payment to company’s
financial investors. Exclude any non-operating income, gains, or
losses generated from assets excluded from invested capital.
Effects of interest expense and non-operating income are removed from taxes. ◦ Start with reported taxes, add back the tax shield
caused by interest expense, and remove taxes paid for non-operating income.
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Model all financing cost (including interest and tax shield) in the cost of capital.
Taxes on non-operating income should be netted against operating income.
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ACCOUNTANT’S INCOME STATEMENT
Current year Revenue 1,000 Operating cost (700) Depreciation (20) Operating profit 280 Interest (20) Non-operating income 4 Earnings before taxes (EBT) 264 Taxes (66) Net profit 198
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NOPLAT
Current year Revenue 1,000 Operating cost (700) Depreciation (20) Operating profit 280 Operating taxes (assume 25%) (70) NOPLAT 210 After tax non-operating income 3 Total income to all investors 213 Reconciliation with net profit Net profit 198 After tax interest 15 Total income to all investors 213
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ROIC = (NOPLAT/Invested Capital) ROIC is used to measure how the
company’s core operating performance has changed and how the company compares with its competitors, without the effects of financial structure and non-operating items distorting the analysis.
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FCF = NOPLAT + Non-Cash Expenses – Investments in Invested Capital
Cash flow from non-operating assets should be evaluated separately from core operations
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ACCOUNTANT’S CASH FLOW
Current year
Net income 198
Depreciation 20
Decrease (increase) in inventory (25)
Increase (decrease) in accounts payable 25
Cash flow from operations 218
Capital expenditures (70)
Decrease (increase) in equity investments (10)
Cash flow from investing (80)
Increase (decrease) in interest-bearing debt (25)
Increase (decrease) in common stock 0
Dividends (113)
Cash flow from financing (138)
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FREE CASH FLOW Current year
NOPLAT 210
Depreciation 20
Gross cash flow 230
Decrease (Increase) in inventory (25)
Increase (Decrease) in accounts payable 25
Capital expenditures (70)
Gross investment (70)
Free cash Flow 160
After tax non-0perating income 3
Decrease (increase) in equity investments (10)
Cash flow available to investors 153
After tax interest expense 15
Decrease (increase) in interest-bearing debt 25
Decrease (increase) in share capital 0
Dividends 113
Cash flow available to investors 153
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Specifically excess cash and marketable securities are excluded.◦ Excess cash represents temporary imbalances in
the company’s cash position. Operating liabilities should not be
considered as a form of financing. ◦ Assumption that operating liabilities are a form of
financing is inconsistent with the definition of NOPLAT.
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The book value of net property, plant and equipment is always included in the operating assets.
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Adjust reported goodwill upwards to recapture historical amortisation and impairments.◦ To maintain consistency, amortisation and
impairments are not deducted from revenues to determine NOPLAT.
An unrecorded goodwill should be added to recorded goodwill.
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Operating lease Expensed investments: advertising, and
research and development
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Excess cash and marketable securities.◦ To asses the minimum cash needed to support
operations, look for a minimum clustering of cash to revenue across the industry.
Illiquid investments, non-consolidated subsidiaries and other equity investments.
Pre-paid and intangible pension assets
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Unfunded retirement liabilities Operating lease Reserves for plan decommissioning Reserve for restructuring
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Deferred tax liability◦ To be consistent use cash taxes to compute
NOPLAT
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Earnings before interest, tax, and amortisation of goodwill (EBITA) is the starting point
Exclude non-operating incomes, gains and losses Adjust income for hidden assets Consider operating cash taxes on EBITA
◦ Use marginal tax rate to eliminate tax effect◦ Use cash taxes actually paid◦ Subtracting the increase in deferred taxes lead to cash
taxes Reconcile net income to NOPLAT to ensure that
the reorganisation is complete
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It represents the cash available for investment and investor payout, without having to sell non-operating assets or raise additional capital. ◦ Gross cash flow has two components: NOPLAT and
Non-cash operating expenses. The two most common non-operating expenses
are depreciation and employee stock option. ◦ ESOPs represent value being transferred from
shareholders to company employees. ◦ If ESOPs are added back to NOPLAT, those must be
valued separately. ◦ If they are not added back, there is no need to value
them separately.
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Change in operating working capital Net capital expenditure
◦ It is estimated by taking the change in the net PP&E plus depreciation.
◦ Change in the gross PP&E should not be considered as gross investment because when assets are retired gross PP&E is reduced without any cash flow implication.
Change in capitalised operating leases
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Investment in acquired intangibles and goodwill◦ For acquired intangible assets, where cumulative
amortisation has been added back, investment is estimated by computing the change in net acquired intangibles.
◦ For intangibles that are being amortised, the method that is being used for estimating net investment in PP&E is used.
Change in other long-term operating assets, net of long-term liabilities.
Non-cash increase should be adjusted (e.g. exchange difference, and change in fair value)
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Reinvestment ratio = Gross investment/Gross cash flow
If the ratio is rising without a corresponding increase in growth, examine:◦ Whether the company’s investments are taking
longer to blossom than expected; or◦ Whether the company is adding capital in
efficiently
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ROIC = NOPLAT/Average Invested Capital When ROIC is used to measure historical
performance for company’s shareholders, ROIC should be measured with goodwill.
ROIC excluding goodwill measures the company’s internal performance and is useful for comparing operating performance across companies and for analysing trends.
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Economic profit = Invested capital × (ROIC – WACC)◦ Invested capital is measured at the beginning of
the year. Economic profit measures the one-year
performance on historical book value. The change in market value measures
changing expectations about future economic profits.
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ROIC = (1 – Cash tax rate) × (EBITA/Revenues) ×
(Revenues/ Average invested capital)
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Components of ROIC
ROIC
18.2
Pre-tax ROIC 25.5
Cash tax rate 28.6
Operating margin 11.0
Average capital turns 2.3
Gross margin 31.8
31.8
SG&A/Revenues 19.1
Depn /Revenues 1.7
Op WC /Revenues 4.2
FA /Revenues 38.9
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Compare historical value drivers with drivers of other companies in the same industry
What are the sources of competitive advantage?
Is the competitive advantage sustainable?
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Convert every line item to some type of ratio, for example:◦ Operating ratios◦ Each line item in the balance sheet as a
percentage of revenue
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If, available, analyse the operating data. By evaluating operating drivers, one can
better assess the sustainability of financial spreads among competitors.
Example: Airlines industry◦ (Labour expense/Revenue) =◦ (Labour expense/Total employees) × ◦ (Total employees/Available seat miles flown ) × ◦ (Available seat miles flown /Revenue)
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Value of a company is driven by ROIC, WACC and growth
Growth is defined as growth in cash flows Assuming profit margins and reinvestment
rates stabilise to a long-term level, long-term growth in cash flows will be directly ties to long-term growth in revenues.
By analysing historical revenue growth, one can assess the potential for growth going forward.
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IBM: Revenue Growth analysis (Per cent) [Ref: Valuation Mc Kinsey Exhibit 7.16]
2001 2002 2003
Organic revenue growth 0.5 (1.8) (2.6)
Acquisition 0.5 2.1 5.4
Divestiture 0 (3.3) 0
Currency effects (3.9) (2.5) 7.0
Reported revenue growth (2.9) (5.5) 9.8
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Revenues earned in different currencies are translated in the reporting currency.
Reported revenue is affected by the weakening or strengthening o currencies against the reporting currency during the reporting period.
Thus a rise in revenue may not reflect increased pricing power or greater quantities sold, but just a depreciation of the company’s home currency.
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Revenues = (Revenue/Unit) × Units Revenue per unit does not represent the
price If revenue per unit is rising, the change
could be due to rising prices or due to the change in the product mix from low-priced to high-priced items
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Revenue Growth Analysis: Retail Chain (Per cent) (Ref: Valuation, McKinsey, Exhibit 7.19
Revenue 11.3
11
Revenue per store (0.1) 90.1) Number of stores 11.4
Number of transactions per store (3.7)
Dollar per transaction 3.7
Square feet per store 4.2
Number of transactions per square foot 4.2
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New store development is an investment choice, where as same-store sales growth reflects store-by-store operating performance.
New stores require large capital investments, where as comparable (that is, year-to-year sale store sales) requires little incremental capital. ◦ Higher revenue and less capital leads to higher
ROIC
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Interest coverage ratio EBIT/Interest or EBIDTA/Interest
◦ (EBITA/Interest) measures the company’s ability to repay interest without having to cut expenditures intended to replace depreciating equipment.
EBITDAR/(Interest + Rental Expense)◦ Important for companies engaged in industries
like retailing business
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ROE = ROIC + [ROIC – (1 – T) kd] × (D/E)◦ ROE is a direct function of its ROIC, its spread of
ROIC over its after-tax cost of debt, and book-based debt-equity ratio
To assess leverage, measure company’s (market) debt-to-equity ratio over time and against peers.
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Look back as far as possible (at least 10 years)◦ This allows to determine whether the company and
industry tend to revert to some normal level of performance, and whether short-term trends are likely to be permanent.
Disaggregate value drivers, both ROIC and revenue growth◦ If possible, link operational performance measures
with each key value driver. If there is any radical change in performance,
identify the source.◦ Determine whether the change is temporary or
permanent, or merely an accounting effect.
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Value the operating leases: Capitalise the asset value on the balance sheet, and the implied debt as liability◦ Rental Expenset =
Asset Valuet - 1× [kd + (1/Asset Life)]
◦ Asset Valuet – 1 =
[Rental Expenset ] ÷ [kd + (1/Asset Life)]
Break down the rental expenses into two components: interest expense and depreciation◦ Implied interest payment should be added back to
EBITA and taxes should be adjusted to remove the interest tax shield
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Capitalising R&D expense:◦ Choose an amortisation period, for example 10
years; use product and industry characteristics to guide your choice
Unlike ROIC, FCF does not change when expenses are capitalised