Analysing future risks due to climate change – case ... · 1.2 -… 3. very likely Turbiinien...
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Analysing future risks due to climate change – case study in Kemijoki Oy Network of Climate Change Risks on Forests (FoRisk) SNS Workshop, October 26-28, 2009 Tvärminne, Finland Jaana Keränen, Riitta Molarius, Nina Wessberg and Jari Schabel VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland
Transcript of Analysing future risks due to climate change – case ... · 1.2 -… 3. very likely Turbiinien...
Analysing future risks due to climate change– case study in Kemijoki Oy
Network of Climate Change Risks on Forests (FoRisk) SNS Workshop, October 26-28, 2009
Tvärminne, Finland
Jaana Keränen, Riitta Molarius, Nina Wessberg and Jari Schabel VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland
Presenter
Presentation Notes
VTT knowledge cluster - Industrial Systems Knowledge centre – Risk and reliability management
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Creating the Risk Assessment Framework
• Background to the work
• Risk Assessment Framework
• Case-study region
• Conclusions
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Background
• Part of the Climate and Energy System (CES) project(funded by Nordic Energy Research)
• Realise a practical method for climate change risk assessment in hydropower plants
• Support hydropower plants to define suitable adaptation strategies and determine future investments
• Integrate climate scenarios with technical risk assessment traditions
• Risk definition: risk is a possible future event, which if it occurs might impact on the ability of an organisation to achieve its objectives
Presenter
Presentation Notes
CES: hankkeen pituus ja mukana olevat tahot, rh vain osa hankkeesta, päätavoitteet Practical means also suitable for the enterprise level, the method should be understandable, logical and simple to use.
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Risk assessment framework
Adopted from: IEC 60300-3-9 2000 Risk analysis of technological systems
3. Risk / opportunityidentification
4. Risk / opportunity estimation(consequences, probabilities)
1. Scope definitionTargets
5. Risk / opportunity evaluation
Adaptation, mitigation Risk management
Risk analysis
Action plan
Riskassessment
2. Data collection2.2 - …
very likely2.1 – Lisääntyvä sadantavuositasolla 0-8 %
2. Lisääntyvä sadanta
1.2 - …
3very likely
Turbiinien kapasioteettia voidaan nostaa, mutta ohijuoksutuksia tulee
Sähkönvastus kasvaa-> energiahäviöita
Muuntajienelinikä lyhenee
Jääkannen muodostaminen hidastuu
Very likely, the probability that the next decade is warmer is 90%.
Ilmiö1.1 – korkeammatlämpötilat etenkin talvella
Skenario1. Lämpimäpi ilmasto
Oma luokitteluOma luokittelu
Nykyiset tai tulevat
varautumiskahdollisuudet
Seurauksetjakeluverkolle
Seurauksetvoimalaitoksell
e
Seurauksetenergialähteelle
tai senkäytettävyydelle
IPCC 2007Alueellisenilmastoskenaarion tai mallien mukaan
Seuraus-luokka
Seuraustentoden-
näköisyys
Riskinpienentäminen
javarautuminen
JakeluverkkoVoimalaitos
Energialähde,(valuma-alue, tuotantoalue
jne)
Ilmiönesiintymis-
taajuus
Skenaariot tai ilmiö
2.2 - …
very likely2.1 – Lisääntyvä sadantavuositasolla 0-8 %
2. Lisääntyvä sadanta
1.2 - …
3very likely
Turbiinien kapasioteettia voidaan nostaa, mutta ohijuoksutuksia tulee
Sähkönvastus kasvaa-> energiahäviöita
Muuntajienelinikä lyhenee
Jääkannen muodostaminen hidastuu
Very likely, the probability that the next decade is warmer is 90%.
Ilmiö1.1 – korkeammatlämpötilat etenkin talvella
Skenario1. Lämpimäpi ilmasto
Oma luokitteluOma luokittelu
Nykyiset tai tulevat
varautumiskahdollisuudet
Seurauksetjakeluverkolle
Seurauksetvoimalaitoksell
e
Seurauksetenergialähteelle
tai senkäytettävyydelle
IPCC 2007Alueellisenilmastoskenaarion tai mallien mukaan
Seuraus-luokka
Seuraustentoden-
näköisyys
Riskinpienentäminen
javarautuminen
JakeluverkkoVoimalaitos
Energialähde,(valuma-alue, tuotantoalue
jne)
Ilmiönesiintymis-
taajuus
Skenaariot tai ilmiö
Winter Spring
SummerAutumn
KosteusLauhat talvetTalvitulvatJäätävä sadeHyydeKova tuuli…
Aikaisempikevät ja tulvatKuivuusKuivuvatvesivarastot…
KuivuusRankkasateetsalamointiRakeet…
MyrskytRankkasateetRoutaJääkannenmuodostaminen…
Winter Spring
SummerAutumn
KosteusLauhat talvetTalvitulvatJäätävä sadeHyydeKova tuuli…
Aikaisempikevät ja tulvatKuivuusKuivuvatvesivarastot…
KuivuusRankkasateetsalamointiRakeet…
MyrskytRankkasateetRoutaJääkannenmuodostaminen…
yli y €yli y €Merkittävät3
x - y €x – y €Keskinkertaiset2
alle x €alle x €Vähäiset1
MahdollisuudentunnisteväriRiskin tunnisteväriSeuraukset
yli y €yli y €Merkittävät3
x - y €x – y €Keskinkertaiset2
alle x €alle x €Vähäiset1
MahdollisuudentunnisteväriRiskin tunnisteväriSeuraukset
Scenario probability highACT
MONITOR
Consequence probability low after control methods
PREPARE
PREPARE
Scenario probability low
Consequence probability high after control methods
Likely
Very unlikely
Very likely
Virtually certain
Unlikely
Ver
y lik
ely
Like
ly
Ver
y un
likel
y
Exceptionally unlikely
= major consequences
= moderate consequences
= minor consequences
= major consequences
= moderate consequences
= minor consequences
risk
opportunity
Unl
ikel
y
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Riskin määritelmä viitekehyksessä: The definition of risk and the procedure and methods of risk assessment process varies. In strategic risk management: risk is a possible future event, which if it occurs might impact on the ability of an organisation to achieve its objectives (Hillson 2006). Thus risk can also be seen as an opportunity which one may miss due to a lack of information Thumbnail pictures associated with the steps 2 – 5 depict the four main tools which were developed to assist the risk analysis process.
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Oulu
Helsinki
Arctic Circle
Sweden
Russia
Norway
Catchment area: Kemijoki River• Area 51 000 km²• Length 550 km• Discharge c. 500 m³/s• Max flood discharge c. 5 000 m³/s• 21 hydropower plants• Power production c. 1 000 MWh
Case-study region
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Pohjois-Suomen kaksi vesivoimalaitosta pilottina. Kehittäminen. Kemijoen alueella tuotetaan reilu kolmasosa Suomen vesivoimasta.
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Tools for data collection – Functional model
• An overview to those functional parts of the power plant which are to be taken into account in the risk analysis process
3. Distribution network
- Technique- Maintenance- etc.
1. Energy source
- Catchment area- Collection area- Wind- Biomass- etc.
2. Power Plant
- Technique- Maintenance- Personnel- Organisation- etc.
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Brainstorming-based risk identification method in order to create a shared understanding among the stakeholders. Functional modelling helps to define the risk assessment scope and structure systematically the risk identification process. Pilotissa keskityttiin kahteen ensimmäiseen laatikkoon. Jakeluverkko oli yhtiön toiminnan ulkopuolista ja häiriöt vaikuttivat toimintaan samalla tavalla, joko ohijuoksutus tai voimalaitoksen tehon säätö.
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Tools for data collection – Seasonal plan
• To aid the visualisation of how the seasons will change in the future
Winter Spring
SummerAutumn
HumidityMild winterWinter floodsFrazil iceFreezing rainHigh winds…
Earlier springEarlier floodsDroughtDraining the reservoirs…
DroughtHeavy rainsLightning strikesHail…
StormsHeavy rainsGround frostBuilding the ice cover…
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Kelloon voidaan lisätä tietoja sekä skenaarioista/ympäristömalleista että voimalaitoksen käyttöön liittyviä asioita.
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Winter Spring
SummerAutumn
Humidity, mild winter, frazil ice, high winds, lack of ground frostLack of ground frost prevents harvesting trees/reed canary grass, etc.Wet soil makes biomass harvesting more difficult Snow damages increaseBiomass transport and storage circumstances transform (biomass humidity, heat value, etc.)
Earlier spring, droughtThe growing season of biomass extends and growth speeds upThe growth of biomass decreases because of droughtThe fire risk of biomass increases
Drought, heavy rains, lightning strikes, hailstorms
The fire risk of biomass increasesPeat harvesting becomes easier during dry seasons/soilWind damages increaseGenerally higher temperature increases the biomass growthThe growth of biomass decreases because of drought
Storms, heavy rains, ground frost
Generally the humidity of biomass transforms transport and storage circumstancesWind damages increase
Seasonal plan – case bioenergy
What factors determine the power plant’s annual routines today? How major factors might change due to climate change?
Annual routines and
control actions
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Kelloon voidaan lisätä tietoja sekä skenaarioista/ympäristömalleista että voimalaitoksen käyttöön liittyviä asioita.
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Tools for risk/opportunity identification
• The risk/opportunity table is the main tool developed for documenting the necessary risk information
very likely2.1 - More rainfall:annual runoff will increase 0-8 %
Scenario 2. increased precipitation
1.2 - …
very likelyincrease turbine capacity
increased electrical resistance ◊energy losses
hot weather decreases the lifetime of transformers
increasing water capacity
Very likely, the probability that the next decade is warmer is 90%.
Phenomena1.1 - higher temperatures, especially during winter
Scenario 1. warmer climate
Consequence category according to own ranking
Likelihood according to own ranking
The operations which will be done to protect against the phenomena and its consequences
The consequences of the phenomena to the distribution network
The consequences of the phenomena to the power plant
The consequences of the phenomena to energy source and its usability
Probability according to IPCC 2007
Phenomena according to regional scenario of future climate, hydrological model or wind model.
Consequence category
Likelihood of the consequences to the energy production
Risk reduction / control / potential
Distribution network
Power plant
Energy source,(e.g. catchment area, peat or biomass production area)
Likelihood of the phenomena
Scenarios andPhenomena
very likely2.1 - More rainfall:annual runoff will increase 0-8 %
Scenario 2. increased precipitation
1.2 - …
very likelyincrease turbine capacity
increased electrical resistance ◊energy losses
hot weather decreases the lifetime of transformers
increasing water capacity
Very likely, the probability that the next decade is warmer is 90%.
Phenomena1.1 - higher temperatures, especially during winter
Scenario 1. warmer climate
Consequence category according to own ranking
Likelihood according to own ranking
The operations which will be done to protect against the phenomena and its consequences
The consequences of the phenomena to the distribution network
The consequences of the phenomena to the power plant
The consequences of the phenomena to energy source and its usability
Probability according to IPCC 2007
Phenomena according to regional scenario of future climate, hydrological model or wind model.
Consequence category
Likelihood of the consequences to the energy production
Risk reduction / control / potential
Distribution network
Power plant
Energy source,(e.g. catchment area, peat or biomass production area)
Likelihood of the phenomena
Scenarios andPhenomena
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Likelihood of phenomena and risks
TerminologyExplanation of the termIf the phenomena happens:
Very likelyThere is only a one in a million chance to prevent the risk
The opportunity's occurrence is almost certain
LikelyThere are some possibilities to prevent the risk
Some factors may reduce the opportunity's occurrence
UnlikelyThere are a lot of possibilities to prevent the risk
A lot of factors may reduce the opportunity's occurrence
Very unlikelyThere are no difficulties in preventing the consequences
The opportunity's occurrence is completely precluded
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Classification of risks and opportunities
• Classification of risks and opportunities is done by colours
Consequence Risk colour Opportunity colour
1 Minor − +
2 Moderate −− ++
3 Major −−− +++
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Riskin/mahdollisuuden suuruus voidaan ilmoittaa myös euroina.
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Risk evaluation
Legend:risk opportunity
major
medium
minor
Scenario likelihood is high
ACT
MONITOR
Likelihood of the realisation of the risk/ opportunity is low
PREPARE
PREPARE
Scenario likelihood is low
Likelihood of the realisation of the risk/ opportunity is high
Likely
Very unlikely
Very likely
Virtually certain
Unlikely
Very
like
ly
Like
ly
Unl
ikel
y
Very
like
ly
Exceptionally unlikely
Legend:risk opportunity
major
medium
minor
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Fourfold table.
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Conclusions
• The risk assessment framework and its tools could support corporate decision-making processes
• Local environmental knowledge is extremely important in interpreting the modelling results
• It was challenging to discuss two likelihood at the same time
• The seasonal plan and the fourfold table were estimated to be the most useful tools during the process
Scenario likelihood is high
ACT
MONITOR
Likelihood of the realization of the risk/ opportunity is low
PREPARE
PREPARE
Scenario likelihood is low
Likelihood of the realization of the risk/ opportunity is high
Likely
Very unlikely
Very likely
Virtually certain
Unlikely
Ver
y lik
ely
Like
ly
Unl
ikel
y
Ver
y lik
ely
Exceptionally unlikely
Legend:risk opportunity
major
medium
minor
Winter Spring
SummerAutumn
- Humidity- Mild winter- Winter floods- Frazil ice- Freezing rain- High winds- …
- Earlier spring- Earlier floods- Drought- Draining the reservoirs- …
- Drought- Heavy rains- Lightning strikes- Hail- …
- Storms- Heavy rains- Ground frost- Building the ice cover- …
Winter Spring
SummerAutumn
- Humidity- Mild winter- Winter floods- Frazil ice- Freezing rain- High winds- …
- Earlier spring- Earlier floods- Drought- Draining the reservoirs- …
- Drought- Heavy rains- Lightning strikes- Hail- …
- Storms- Heavy rains- Ground frost- Building the ice cover- …
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Further development of the concept
• The ability to express the magnitude of the risk as an economic value would be beneficial
• To obtain required climate scenarios and necessary environmental models in effective and flexible way enough will be necessary target for development
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Further information
• The CES home page (inc. the list of publications)
• www.os.is/ces
• Links to some CES climate modelling and scenarios deliverablereports
• www.atm.helsinki.fi/~jaraisan/ces.html
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