Analyses on public investments

March 2007

Aim:

Integrated territorial analysis through calls for tender data

Aim:

Integrated territorial analysis through calls for tender data

Solution:

Analysis, definition of indicators and territorial representations

Solution:

Analysis, definition of indicators and territorial representations

TERRITORIAL ANALYSIS OF CALLS FOR TENDER

Variation of per-capita amounts – 2005 over 2001

From 2001 to 2005 the total amount of calls for tender in Obj.1 regions

INCREASED in 1.176 municipalities over 2.116 (56%),

corresponding to 70% of population

+61%

+19%

+95%+77%

+159%

+31%

+63%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

CAMPANIA PUGLIA BASILICATA CALABRIA SICILIA SARDEGNA OB1

Per

-cap

ita a

mou

nt (e

uro)

2001 2005

Increase 2005 over 2001

Decrease 2005 over 2001

Data not available

GROWTH OF CALLS FOR TENDER IN OBJ. 1 REGIONS

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Index p

er-

capita

am

ount

Centre-North South Objective 1

Italy=100

TREND INVERSION OF PER-CAPITA AMOUNTOF CALLS FOR TENDER

0 CONSERVATION

(maintenance, restoration, … )

1 SVILUPPO

(new construction, realization, … )

PROPENSITY TO DEVELOPMENT AT TERRITORIAL LEVEL

Development Propensity Index for calls tendered in year

WORKS ONLY IN POWERPOINT 2000

DYNAMICS OF OVERALL PROPENSITY TO DEVELOPMENT

(*)0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Development

Conservation

(*) Computed on 58% of amounts in the year

Aim:

Analysis of factors affecting the duration of a procedural step

Aim:

Analysis of factors affecting the duration of a procedural step

Solution:

Binary Tree Analysis

Solution:

Binary Tree Analysis

DURATION INFLUENCING FACTORS

PROJECT LIFE-CYCLE

Time

Prog

ress

Design-Procurement Construction-Activation

100%

Handover to contractor

Design Procurement Construction

Call for tender Awardingof contract

Handover to contractor

End of works

Activation

Project in operation

Call for tender Awardingof contract

DURATION OF PROCUREMENT

Influencing factors Shorter Longer

Selection procedure Open tender Restricted procedure

Year of procurement After 2001 Until 2001

Type of public bodyMinistries, Regions, Provinces, Municipalities

Managing bodies for networks

Programming instrument National intersectoral

SectorSocial infrastructures, Environment

Transportation

Localization North Islands

Amount Low High

Avg. duration72 days

PROCEDURE

Open tender Restricted procedure

YEAR OF TENDER

After 200152 days

Until 2001

AMOUNT

<= 4,3 Meuro> 4,3 Meuro

97 days

MACRO-AREA

North64 days

Centre, South, Islands

SECTOR

Social infr., Environ., Other

70 days

Transportation79 days

PUBLIC BODY

Ministries, Regions, Provinces,

MunicipalitiesOther

YEAR OF TENDER

After 200177 days

Until 2001104 days

SECTOR

Social infr., Environ., Other

Transportation 150 days

YEAR OF TENDER

After 2001106 days

Until 2001124 days

Aim:

Leading information on the expenditure

Aim:

Leading information on the expenditure

Solution:

Forecasting system analysis

Solution:

Forecasting system analysis

FORECASTING SYSTEM OF THE EXPENDITURE

TOOLS FOR INTEGRATON OF FORECASTS

The outcome of the neural network is an optimal and dynamic selection of the most accurate forecast.

DYNAMIC MAP OF EXPENDITURE

The dynamics of the expenditure can be represented at municipal level

Expenditure forecast for year

WORKS ONLY IN POWERPOINT 2000

Total yearly expenditure

SCENARIO BUILDING

Different assumptions on the composition of a set of projects lead to the definition of different expenditure scenarios

Aim:

Compare performances among projects and among public bodies

Aim:

Compare performances among projects and among public bodies

Solution:

Definition of benchmarks and graphical representation

Solution:

Definition of benchmarks and graphical representation

PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS

PROJECT PERFORMANCES

The selected project is compared with all the other projects (dashed circle) and with those sharing the same features (beams) at the same time

Expend. index IN AVERAGE

PUBLIC BODY PERFORMANCES

Public bodies with projects with greatest costs (size of bubbles) have smallest implementation percentage and will be ended latest

Percentage of implementation

Expected end of works