ANALYSES OF

VARIOUS MITIGATION

SCENARIOS AND

CONTRIBUTIONS FOR

MACEDONIA

Aleksandar Dedinec Verica Taseska-

Gjorgievska, Natasa Markovska,

Teodora Obradovic Grncarovska,

Neven Duic, Jordan Pop-Jordanov,

Research Center for energy and

Sustainable Development

Macedonian Acedemy of Sciences and

Arts

Introduction

Methodology

Definition of baseline and mitigation scenarios

Results

Conclusion

Содржина

Introduction

CO2 emissions has increased for 26% in

the period 1959 to 2014 (315 ppm to 398

ppm), temperature increase for 0.8 0C

compared to preindustrial level

Introduction

• Non-Annex I country under UNFCCC and a candidate for EU

membership

• Reflect different types of targets, different levels of ambition

(CO2)

– (1) EU scenarios - end-year type mitigation targets (compared to 1990)

– (2) QELRC (Quantified Emission Limitation and Reduction

Commitment) scenarios e a wide range of cumulative targets for eight

years, relative to 1990 level and,

– (3) Baseline deviation scenarios e deviation compared to baseline

emission level

Macedonia

Methodology

• MARKAL model

Methodology

Methodology

• EU targets

• QELRC

• BAU

2021-28 2029-36 2037-44 2045-52

QELRC _Low +20% +10% 0% -10%

QELRC _MedLow +10% 0% -10% -20%

QELRC _Med 0% -10% -20% -30%

QELRC _MedHigh -10% -20% -30% -40%

QELRC _High -20% -30% -40% -50%

Methodology

Carbon pricing is introduced in all mitigation scenarios:

• until 2020: 0 EUR/tCO2

• 2021 – 2024: 15 EUR/tCO2

• 2025 – 2027: 20 EUR/tCO2

• 2028 – 2030: 25 EUR/tCO2

• 2030 – 2050: 30 EUR/tCO2

Results-Baseline

Comparison

Final Energy by Fuels

• Fuel switch in

industry from coal

to natural gas

• Increased share of

biofuels and

electricity in

transport

• Increased

utilization of RES

and natural gas in

residential and

commercial

106,000

107,000

108,000

109,000

110,000

111,000

112,000

113,000

114,000Baseline

Low

Medium

High

Final Energy Consumption (ktoe)

BAU

QELRC

EU

Comparison

Power Plant Capacity (MW)

1,5001,7001,9002,1002,3002,5002,7002,9003,1003,300

Baseline

Low

Medium

High

Power Plant Capacity (MW)

BAU

QELRC

EU

Comparison

Electricity Generation & Import (GWh)

• Electricity generation from coal

PP replaced with gas PP

• More hydro

• Increased import to achieve the

QELRC

400,000420,000440,000460,000480,000500,000520,000540,000560,000

Baseline

Low

Medium

High

Electricity Generation & Import (GWh)

BAU

QELRC

EU

Comparison

Primary Energy Supply (ktoe)

• Fossil fuels are

replaced with

imported electricity to

achieve the QELRC

• Increased utilization

of RES on both

supply and demand

side

115,000

120,000

125,000

130,000

135,000

140,000

145,000Baseline

Low

Medium

High

Primary Energy Supply (ktoe)

BAU

QELRC

EU

Comparison

Total Discounted System Costs

(2012M€)

50,000

50,500

51,000

51,500

52,000

52,500

53,000

Baseline

Low

Medium

High

Total Discounted System Costs (20012M€)

BAU

QELRC

EU

CO2 Emissions

•

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044 2047 2050

kt

Year

Baseline

EU_Low

EU_Medium

EU_High

• Emission reduction by 41% in 2020 due to carbon price

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044 2047 2050

kt

Year

Baseline

BAUdev_Low

BAUdev_Medium

BAUdev_High

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044 2047 2050

kt

Year

Baseline

QELRC_Low

QELRC_MediumLow

QELRC_Medium

QELRC_MediumHigh

QELRC_High

Comparison

Cumulative CO2 Emissions (kt)

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

Baseline

Low

Medium

High

Cumulative CO2 Emissions (kt)

BAU

QELRC

EU

Comparative Assessment

Ambition level

Low Medium High

EU

Cumulative emissions (kt) 302,613 269,871 234,929

Cumulative total system costs (2012M€) 51,725 52,243 52,487

Incremental specific reduction cost (€/t) 2.70 4.53 4.85

QELRC

Cumulative emissions (kt) 345,878 320,961 285,950

Cumulative total system costs (2012M€) 51,338 51,521 52,092

Incremental specific reduction cost (€/t) 0.99 1.86 4.17

BAUdev

Cumulative emissions (kt) 347,519 340,113 300,290

Cumulative total system costs (2012M€) 51,550 51,809 52,945

Incremental specific reduction costs (€/t) 2.35 3.82 8.64

Colour code: good acceptable poor

Cumulative emissions (kt) <300,000 300,000 - 325,000 >325,000

Cumulative total system costs (2012M€) <51,600 51,600 - 52,000 >52,000

Incremental Specific reduction costs (€/t) <2.00 2.00 -4.00 >4.00

Conclusions

• The imposed targets can be realized in Macedonian

conditions.

• The power sector is the most important area for

mitigation action, implemented through:

– coal to gas switch (mainly due to the CO2 prices)

– intensified development of hydro and some wind and solar

power

• Higher ambition targets might challenge the security

of supply (considerable increase of the electricity

import after 2032, fully replacing the gas-fired electricity

by 2050)