Analisis Teknikal KT 17 Mac 2012

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ANALISIS TEKNIKAL

HARGA EMAS

Kuala Terengganu

17 Mac 2012


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Expert Intro

I tend to use most computer-generated technical indicators as secondary tools

when I am analyzing a market or considering a trade. My primary trading tools

include chart patterns, fundamental analysis and trend lines.


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Patterns chart, candlestick

Fundamental ekonomi, permintaan dan

penawaran, perang, bencana alam, dsd.

Trend lines sejenis tools untuk melukis

trend.

Essence of Technical Analysis


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Technical analysis is security analysis discipline forforecasting thedirection of prices through the study ofpast market data, primarily

price and volume.

Source: Wikipedia

ANALISIS TEKNIKAL?

A method of evaluating securities by analyzing statistics generated

by market activity, such aspast prices and volume. Technical analysts

do not attempt to measure a security's intrinsic value, but instead use

charts and other tools to identify patterns that can suggest future activity.Source: Investopedia


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Why learn from me?

Saya takde keje lain. Keje saya cuma baca graf. Bahasa

omputihnya, chartist. Dekat-dekat dengan artis

-Shufaad, 11 Feb 2011

AndNo, it doesnt make me better than others.

Its just make me more FOCUS


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Bagaimana kelas ini boleh memberi

manfaat kepada anda?

Dalam jangka masa pendek;

Lihat Table 1

Dalam jangka masa panjang;

Saya berusaha untuk mengajar anda satu ilmu baruyang sangat-sangat berguna; mungkin bukan sekarang,mungkin bukan esok, mungkin juga bukan untuk tahun

depan, tetapi mungkin apabila anda sudah bersediauntukmelakukan transformasi di dalam kerjaya dan

juga hidup anda.


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BULAN OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE +/-

Januari 1418.75 1423.70 1308.07 1332.65 -86.1

Februari 1332.93 1417.99 1324.95 1410.73 +77.8

Mac 1411.28 1447.61 1380.71 1431.90 +20.62

April 1432.73 1569.25 1412.52 1562.90 +130.17

Mei 1567.03 1576.48 1462.35 1535.50 -31.53

Jun 1535.20 1558.07 1490.65 1499.61 -35.59

Julai 1500.57 1632.47 1478.04 1626.65 +126.08

Ogos 1606.78 1911.89 1606.78 1825.75 +218.97

September 1824.40 1920.80 1532.64 1623.43 -200.97

Oktober 1619.95 1752.35 1595.65 1714.55 +94.6

November 1713.96 1802.54 1666.66 1745.90 +31.94

Disember 1747.93 1762.97 1522.55 1564.73 -182.2


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Objektif

Mengetahui bilakah masa yang sesuai untuk

membeli, memborong atau pun menjual emas

anda.

Mengira potensi keuntungan yang boleh anda

dapat melalui pelaburan emas Public Gold dan

juga pelaburan emas yang lain.


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Skil Tambahan

Menukarkan harga emas dunia di dalam USD

kepada RM.

Formula:

Harga emas (USD/oz) / 31.1 = USD/gram

Harga (USD/gram) x currency exchange rate = RM/gram


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Isi Kandungan

Memperkenalkan, MetaTrader 4

The Goldbug Psychology

Memperkenalkan, MetaTrader 4



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Memperkenalkan,

MetaTrader 4


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MetaTrader is an electronic trading software created

by MetaQuotes Corp. for online Forex, CFD and futures

trading.

- source: http://www.forexnewbies.com/what-is-metatrader/

MetaTrader 4, better known as MT4, is an electronic trading

platform widely used by online retail foreign exchange

speculative traders.

- source: Wikipedia


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Praktikal

1. Mencipta akaun demo

2. Bereksperimen dengan tools, menu danikon di dalam MT4

3. Applying template dan indikator


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Investing is not a game where the guy with the

160 IQ beats the guy with 130 IQ.Once you

have ordinary intelligence, what you need is thetemperament to control the urges that get other

people into trouble in investing

-Warren Buffett-


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Whos Moving the price?

Central bank

Governments

Hedging fund

Producers

Traders and investors


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Gold trading

1. Gold Bullion

2. Exchange Traded Funds

3. Exchange Traded Notes4. Miners

5. Spot, Futures and Options


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Sentiment trading

Asia VS rest of the world

Tradition vs Hedging


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Market Psychology

Fear follow the herd

Greed

Risk on

Risk off

Knowing others is intelligence,; knowing yourself istrue wisdom.

Mastering others is strength, mastering yourself is

true power

-Lau Tzu-


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Case studies

1. The Great Depression,1929 1933

2. George Soros, The Man Who Broke the Bank

ofEngland3. Warren Buffett blunders


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Gold Trading Session

Sun rise with Aussie

Bargain hunters with Shanghai

Consumer power at New Delhi

Smelling fear at Euro

Profit takers at NY

Outside factor with Looney


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Psychology in Technical Indicators

Support and Resistance The long, the short and the un-certain

Balance ofprobabilities

The importance ofpsycho level

Golden ratio as magic numbers

Candlestick

Irregularities in open and close price Aggressive buyers and sellers

Agree/Indecision


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Support and Resistance


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Trading

range


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Support

IS

BUYERS

Camp


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ResistanceIS

SELLERS

Camp


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Bagaimana anda mahu melukisgarisan support dan resistance?


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3 General rules:1. Highest high, lowest low

2. Pullback

3. Long black/white candle

Tips: Kena guna banyak garisan horizontal dan kenabanyak gunakan tools zoom in dan zoom out.


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Price Action


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1. Pentingnya PSYCHO LEVEL di dalam

pergerakan harga emas.

2. HISTORICAL PRICEialah rekod harga

yang pernah di jejaki oleh emas.

3. Pembundaran harga kepada suatu

yang lebih mudah menggunakan

ROUND NUMBER.


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Balance ofProbabilities

Berapa kerap harga emas menghampiri garisan tersebut dan melantun

kembali, sama ada ke bawah (untuk garisan resistance) dan ke atas (untuk

garisan support)?. Lagi kerap, lagi bagus.

Berapa lama harga tersebut berada di dalam trading range (di antara

garisan support dan resistance) tersebut? Lagi lama, lagi bagus.

Bilakah kali terakhir garisan-garisan tersebut di lawati? Jikalau baru lagi,

ada kemungkinan garisan tersebut akan di lawati semula oleh harga emas.

Dengan mengenalpasti berapa banyak trading volume apabila garisan

tersebut di lawati. (Topik volume agak advanced. Jadi saya tidak akan

menghuraikannya di sini. Nanti boleh baca di ebook saya yang lain).

Adakah ianya berada berhampiran round number? Atau psycho level? Jika

ya, maka ianya adalah garisan support dan resistance yang kuat.


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ITS

PRACTICALTIME.


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Fibonacci


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Fibonacci di gunakan sebagai garisan supportdan resistance.

berdasarkan harga tertinggi dan terendah

pasaran di dalam satu jangka masa.

Secara teorinya,jika anda membuat garisanfibonacci yang sama dengan traders/investors

yang berada di institusi kewangan yang besar,peluang anda untuk menang adalah sangatcerah.


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The Golden ratio

1.618 dan 0.618


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Fibonacci Retracement

0.0%

23.6%

38.2%

50.0%

61.8%

100.0%

100.0%

61.8%

50.0%

38.2%

23.6%

0.0%

A

B A

B


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Upward


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Downward


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Its PRACTICAL time.


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Introducing

P

ublic GoldP

rofit (Loss) Calculator


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Candlestick


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Candlestick Anatomy


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Mengapa anda perlu mempelajari

pattern?

Untuk mengetahui bila harga akan TURUN dan bilaianya akan NAIK semula

Dalam erti kata lain

Pattern di gunakan sebagai petunjuk sama adatrend kenaikan / penurunan semasa akanberterusan ataupun akan berakhir.


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Petunjuk kepada turun dan naik harga

DariB

earish (Menurun) keB

ullish(Menaik)

Dari Bullish (Menaik) ke Bearish

(Menurun)

Reversal Pattern


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Bullish Reversal

Pattern

Bullish Engulfing

(Three Outside Up)

Long Dawn Line

Piercing Line Hammer Inverted Hammer

Abandoned Baby

(Bullish)

Bullish Harami

(Three Inside Up)

Morning Star


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Bearish Engulfing

Bullish Harami

Shooting Star

Piercing Line

Doji

TIME FRAME: DAILY


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Bearish Engulfing

Hammer

Bearish Engulfing

Morning Star

TIME FRAME: DAILY


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ITS

PRACTICALTIME.


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More readings

Steve Nisons ebook

Melakafx blog; search forKnow

your candles andThe ultimateindicator


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Secondary Tools


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Trendline & Equidistant Channel

Relative Strength Index (RSI)


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LETS HEAR THEEXPERTs

www.kitco.com


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About Me

Name: Noor Shufaad Md Norani

Phone No: 016-6447174

Website: melakafx.com, shufaad.com

Company: Candlestick Consulting

Designation: ChiefEverything Officer

Twitter: melakafx

Facebook: melakafx


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HAPPY TRADING

&

THANK YOU!

Analisis Teknikal KT 17 Mac 2012

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