An Overview of the Global Dairy Fat Market - dairynews.ru Presentation... · Confidential to...
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An Overview of the Global Dairy Fat Market
September 2013
Martin BatesCountry Manager Russia and CIS LLC
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Fonterra a farmer owned co-operative
• Fonterra is a 100% farmer-owned cooperative
• To own shares in Fonterra you must be a farmer supplying milk
• Neither the company or any of its farm shareholders receive any subsidy
• Fonterra relies upon the manufacture and sale of dairy products for all of its revenue.
• The success or failure of Fonterra’s farmer-shareholder owners depends upon Fonterra’s ability to sell dairy products manufactured from shareholders’ milk at competitive prices globally
Source: Fonterra
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Фонтерра - фермерский кооператив
• Фонтерра это кооператив 100% принадлежащий фермерам
• Чтобы иметь акции Фонтерры необходимо быть фермером который поставляет молоко Фонтерре
• Компания и её фермеры-акционеры не получают никаких субсидий
• Доход Фонтерры полностью полагается на производство и продажу молокопродуктов
• Успех или провал фермеров-акционеров зависит от способности Фонтерры продать молокопродукты произведённые из молока акционеров по конкурентноспособным ценам по всему миру
Source: Fonterra
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Global Production and consumption
Source: Country Statistics (USDA, EuroStat, Dairy Australia, DCANZ, etc)Note: Actual milk production converted to a standardized milk (Liquid Milk Equivalent) based on 3.5% protein and 4.2% fat.
Russia: Production deficit to consumption.
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Мировое производство и потребление
Source: Country Statistics (USDA, EuroStat, Dairy Australia, DCANZ, etc)Note: Actual milk production converted to a standardized milk (Liquid Milk Equivalent) based on 3.5% protein and 4.2% fat.
Потребление
Производство
Россия: дефицит производства по отношению к потреблению
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Milk Production Growth: Southern HemisphereSimilar patterns. NZ and Uruguay showing rapid recovery. Argentina and Australia are still struggling in terms of production growth. These four countries represent 31% of global trade.
Source: Country Statistics (USDA, EuroStat, Dairy Australia, DCANZ, etc
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Рост производства молока: Южное полушарие Аналогичные тенденции. Новая Зеландия и Уругвай показывают быстрое восстановление. Аргентина и Австралия всё ещё пытаются повысить производство. Эти четыре страны представляют 31% мировой торговли..
Source: Country Statistics (USDA, EuroStat, Dairy Australia, DCANZ, etc
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Milk Production: Northern HemisphereThe top four Northern hemisphere countries have seen flat to declining milk production growth. Production in Germany and France is beginning to pick up but is still well down on an aggregate level. The Netherlands is showing strong production growth and is likely to struggle in terms of its milk quota limit. The USA has remained surprisingly resilient notwithstanding drought conditions in California. These countries represent 30% of global trade.
Source: Country Statistics (USDA, EuroStat, Dairy Australia, DCANZ, etc
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Рост производства молока: Северное полушариеЧетыре лидирующие страны Северного полушария испытывают постоянство или снижение роста производства молока. Производство в Германии и Франции начинает возростать, но всё ещё ниже агрегированного уровня. Недерланды показывают высокий темп роста производства и скорее всего будут сдержены своим пределом на квоту молока. США остаются на удивление устойчивыми несмотря на засухи в Калифорнии. Эти страны представляют 30% мировой торговли.
Source: Country Statistics (USDA, EuroStat, Dairy Australia, DCANZ, etc
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Milk Production: Top 15 Exporting Countries versus the Rest of the WorldTop 15 exporting countries expected to see a recovery in growth with milk production in aggregate back to the previous peak by the end of 2013. Russia production has been declining. For the rest of the world, questions remain around China production but generally steady at about 2%
Source: Country Statistics (USDA, EuroStat, Dairy Australia, DCANZ, Russian Ministry of Agriculture,…)
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Производство молока: Топ 15 экспортирующих стран по сравнению с остальным миромДля 15ти крупнейших стран-экспортёров ожидается возобновление роста производства молока в совокупности к предыдущему пику к концу 2013 года. В остальном мире остаются вопросы о производстве Китая, но в целом рост стабилен на примерном уровне 2%.
Source: Country Statistics (USDA, EuroStat, Dairy Australia, DCANZ, Russian Ministry of Agriculture,…)
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Global Dairy Trade in 2012Russia is the second largest importer behind China with imports of 1.4 million tonnes of dairy products. The EU is the largest exporter with almost 3.9 million tonnes.
Source: GTIS (Global Trade Information Services)
Russia Imports:1.4 million tonnes
EU Exports:3.9 million tonnes
Belarus Exports:0.8 million tonnes, principally to Russia.
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Мировая торговля молокопродуктов в 2012 годуРоссия является вторым по величине импортёром, после Китая, импортируя 1,4 млн. тонн молочной продукции. ЕС является крупнейшим экспортером - почти 3.9 мил. тонн.
Source: GTIS (Global Trade Information Services)
Russia Imports:1.4 million tonnes
EU Exports:3.9 million tonnes
Belarus Exports:0.8 million tonnes, principally to Russia.
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Global Export GrowthRelative to powders, cheese and whey products, global trade in butter and AMF has remained relatively static over the past decade. However there has been a shift in market for milk fat with growth in exports destined to MENA and Asia with static to declining trade in other regions.
Butter
AMF
Source: GTIS (Global Trade Information Services)
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Рост мирового экспортаПо отношению к сухому молоку, сыру и сухой молочной сыворотке, мировая торговля сливочного масла и обезвоженного молочного жира практически не изменилась в течении последнего десятилетия. Однако наблюдается сдвиг в рынке молочного жира от роста экспорта на Средний Восток и в Азию, и от устойчивости или снижения торговли в других регионах.
Масло
AMF
Source: GTIS (Global Trade Information Services)
Обезвоженный молочный жир
Масло сливочное
Сыр
Молочный белок
Сухое обезжиренное молоко
Сухая молочная сыворотка
Сухое цельное молоко
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Global Butter ImportsGrowth in imports by Asia and MENA. Russia remains static and the rest of the world has declined.
Asia
MENA
ROW
EU
Russia
Source: GTIS (Global Trade Information Services
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Мировой импорт масла сливочногоРост импорта Азии и Среднего Востока. Россия без изменений; снижение роста в остальном мире.
Азия
СВ и СА
Ост. мир
ЕС
Россия
Source: GTIS (Global Trade Information Services
Азия
Средний Восток и Северная Африка
Остальной мир
США
ЕС
Россия
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Global AMF ImportsGrowth in imports by Asia and MENA. EU and USA imports are variable. Russia imports remains static.
Asia
MENA
ROW
Russia
Source: GTIS (Global Trade Information Services
USA
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Мировой импорт обезвоженного молочного жираРост импорта в Азию и Средний Восток. Импорт ЕС и США переменный. Импорт России постоянен.
Азия
СВ и СА
Ост. мир
Россия
Source: GTIS (Global Trade Information Services
США
Азия
СВ и СА
Остальной мир
США
ЕС
Россия
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Russian ImportsCompared to Belarus and the EU, NZ is a minor importer into Russia with 20kt – 25kt butter per year.
Source: GTIS. 2013 year to date through July
Fluid Cheese
Powders Milk Fat
Total Imports
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Импорт в РоссиюПо сравнению с Белорусью и ЕС, Новая Зеландия является небольшим импортёром в Россию -20-25 килотонн в год.
Source: GTIS. 2013 year to date through July
Питьевое молоко Сыр
Сухие продукты Молочный жир
Общий объем импорта
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Russian Imports as a Percentage of Total ConsumptionCurrently, imports on a liquid milk equivalent basis represents approximately 18% of total consumption. Imports from NZ represent less than 1% of total consumption.
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Импорт в процентах от общего потребления в РоссииНа данный момемнт импорты составляют примерно 18% общего потребления. Импорты из Новой Зеландии представляют менее 1% от общего потребления.
Потребление от импорта
Потребление от внутреннего производства
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Global Butter ConsumptionRussia is the third largest global butter market with consumption of 330 kt and per capita consumption of 2.3 kg.
(kg)
Source: Euromonitor. Includes, retail, food service and institutional
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Мировое потребление масла сливочногоРоссия является третьим крупнейшим мировым рынком сливочного масла, потребляя 330 килотонн / 2.3 кг на душу населения.
(kg)
Source: Euromonitor. Includes, retail, food service and institutional
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Russian Dairy Market (2012)Lead by drinking milk, yogurt and sour milk on a product (tonnes) basis. Cheese leads the retail market in terms of value (USD). Butter trails but is the third largest category on a milk equivalent basis.
Consumption (Liquid Milk Equivalent Basis kl)
Consumption (Product Tonnes)
Retail Sales (USD)
Source: Euromonitor / Fonterra Analysis
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Молочный рынок России (2012)Ведущие по потреблению питьевого молока, йогурта и кисломолочных продуктов по объёму. Сыры лидируют розничный рынок по стоимости. Масло отстаёт, но является третьей по величине категорией.
Потребление (Liquid Milk Equivalent Basis kl)
Потребление (Product Tonnes)
Розничные продажи (USD)
Source: Euromonitor / Fonterra Analysis
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Russian Retail Dairy Market GrowthGrowth is lead by drinking milk products and cheese
Source: Euromonitor / Euromonitor Forecast
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Рост розничного рынка молочных продуктов в РоссииРост ведут питьевые молокопродукты и сыр
Source: Euromonitor / Euromonitor Forecast
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Russian Retail Butter Sales2012 retail sales of 256,000 tonnes. Anchor was 4,000 tonnes or 17% of butter imported from NZ. The remaining NZ butter is consumed in food service and industrial applications.
Source: Euromonitor A C Nielsen
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Розничная продажа сливочного масла в РоссииРозничная продажа в 2012 году составила 256,000 тонн. "Анкор" составил 4,000 тонн -17% масла импортированного из Новой Зеландии. Остальное масло из Новой Зеландии использованно в общественном питании и промышленном применении.
Source: Euromonitor / A C Nielsen
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Commodity PriceEuropean, USA and Oceania commodity price
Sources:Informa Economics – forecast of USDA Oceania SeriesRabobank – forecast of USDA Oceania SeriesUS CME Futures Contracts (12th September 2013)GDT Fonterra NZ – average of all contracts for Fonterra butter sold on GDT Dutch Dairy Board European butter priceCME Spot – daily CME Cash Price
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Цены на товары
Sources:Informa Economics – forecast of USDA Oceania SeriesRabobank – forecast of USDA Oceania SeriesUS CME Futures Contracts (12th September 2013)GDT Fonterra NZ – average of all contracts for Fonterra butter sold on GDT Dutch Dairy Board European butter priceCME Spot – daily CME cash price