An Overview of North Slope Hydrology and Potential Response to Climate Change

An Overview of North Slope Hydrology and Potential

Response to Climate Change

Presented by:

Amy Tidwell, PhD

Water and Environmental Research Center

University of Alaska Fairbanks

Wildlife Response to Environmental Arctic Change

(WildREACH)

17-18 November 2008

Outline

• Introduction to the Arctic hydrologic cycle

• General water balance approach

• Discussion of seasonal hydrologic features in the Arctic

• Hydrologic response to climate change

– Scenario I: Increasing air temperature

– Scenario II: Increasing air temperature with increasing precipitation

• Panel discussion

From Kane and Yang, 2004

Winter Spring Summer Fall

Seasonally frozen ground

Permafrost

Rainfall (PR)

Evapotranspiration

Ps=snow, PR=rain, Es=sublimation, ET=evapotranspiration, R=surface runoff,

Ssoil=soil moisture storage, and Ssurface=surface water storage

Snow accumulation

Ssurface + Ssoil

Output

InputPRPs

(PS + PR) - (ES + ET) - R = ∆ (Ssurface + Ssoil)

Water Balance:

Es ET

Sublimation (Es) Sublimation

SnowSnow (Ps)

Water Balance Terms

12.0 11.5 9.5

24.1 26.2

8.5

17.8 14.0

6.1

8.05.7

7.4

10.0 17.9

3.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Imnavait Upper Kuparuk Putuligayuk

(1985-2003) (1996-2002) (1999-2007)

Basin

Ave

rag

e D

epth

(cm

)

Storage Change

Summer Runoff

Snow Runoff

ET

Rainfall

SWE

Water Balance Terms for Selected Arctic Basins

Data sources: Kane et al., 2000; Kane et al., 2004;

Kane et al., 2008.

Map from WERC/UAF

Water Balance Terms

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Imnavait Upper Kuparuk Putuligayuk

(1985-2003) (1996-2002) (1999-2007)

Basin

Ave

rag

e D

epth

(cm

)

Storage Change

Summer Runoff

Snow Runoff

ET

Rainfall

SWE



Permafrost

Ps=snow, PR=rain, Es=sublimation, ET=evapotranspiration, R=surface runoff,

Ssoil=soil moisture storage, and Ssurface=surface water storage

Snow accumulation

Ssurface + Ssoil

Output

InputPRPs

(PS + PR) - (ES + ET) - R = ∆ (Ssurface + Ssoil)

Water Balance:

Es ETA

IDC

B

G

F

H

JE

Act

ive

La

yer

Th

ickn

ess

Rainfall (PR)

EvapotranspirationSublimation (Es) Sublimation

SnowSnow (Ps)

Imnavait Creek

Drainage Area = 2.2 km2

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

14-Apr 13-Jun 12-Aug 11-Oct

Dis

char

ge

(m3/

s)

2001 Discharge;SWE=14.2 cm;Psumm=20.4 cm


Upper Kuparuk River at Dalton Highway

Drainage Area = 142 km2

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


Dis

char

ge

(m3/

s)



Putuligayuk River at Spine Road

Drainage Area = 471 km2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


Dis

char

ge

(m3/

s)



Hydrographs for Selected Basins

and Years

Kane, D.L. and Hinzman, L.D., 2008. Climate data from the

North Slope Hydrology Research project. University of Alaska

Fairbanks, Water and Environmental Research Center. URL:

http://www.uaf.edu/water/projects/NorthSlope/. Fairbanks,

Alaska, variously paged. November, 2008.



Permafrost

Snow accumulation

Ssurface + Ssoil

Output

InputA

IDC

B

G

F

H

JE

Es ET

PRPs

Act

ive

La

yer

Th

ickn

ess

Rainfall (PR)


SnowSnow (Ps)



Permafrost

↓ Winter energy flux from ground to atmosphere

Enhanced active layer development

↑ Soil storage capacity (settlement?)

Geomorphic and vegetation changes

↑ Temperature only

↑ Summer energy flux from atmosphere to ground

↑ Potential for mid-winter melt and ice in snow

↑ Evapotranspiration

↓ Soil moisture (no ↑ precipitation)

Ssurface + Ssoil

Output

Input

Snow accumulation

Ps

A

IDC

B

G

F

H

JD

Es ET

PR

Act

ive

La

yer

Th

ickn

ess

Rainfall (PR)


SnowSnow (Ps)



Permafrost

Snow accumulation

↓ Winter energy flux from ground to atmosphere

Enhanced active layer development

↑ Soil storage capacity (settlement?)

Geomorphic and vegetation changes

↑ Temperature, ↑ Precipitation

↑ Summer energy flux from atmosphere to ground

↑ Potential for mid-winter melt and ice in snow

↑ Evapotranspiration

Soil moisture change unknown

?Ssurface + Ssoil

Output

InputA

IDC

B

G

F

H

E

Es ET

PR

Act

ive

La

yer

Th

ickn

ess

Rainfall (PR)


SnowSnow (Ps)

J

References

• Bowling, L.C., D.L. Kane, R.E. Gieck, and L.D. Hinzman, 2003. “The role of surface storage in a low-gradient Arctic watershed.” Water Resources Research, 39(4), 1087.

• Hinzman, L.D. and others, 2005. “Evidence and implications of recent climate change in Northern Alaska and other arctic regions.” Climatic Change, 72: 251-298.

• Kane, D.L., 1997. “The Impact of Hydrologic Perturbations on Arctic Ecosystems Induced by Climate Change.” In Global Change and Arctic Terrestrial Systems, Eds. Oechel, Callaghan, Gilmanov, Holten, Maxwell, Molau, and Sveinbjornsson.

• Kane, D.L., L.D. Hinzman, J.P. McNamara, Z. Zhang, and C.S. Benson, 2000. “An Overview of a Nested Watershed Study in Arctic Alaska.” Nordic Hydrology, 31: 245-266.

• Kane, D.L., R.E. Gieck, and L.D. Hinzman, 2008. “Water Balance for a Low-Gradient Watershed in Northern Alaska.” Proceedings, Ninth International Conference on Permafrost, Fairbanks, AK.

• Kane, D.L. and D. Yang (eds), 2004. Northern Research Basins Water Balance. International Association of Hydrological Sciences. IAHS Publication 290. Wallingford, UK, 271pp.

• McNamara, J.P., D.L. Kane, and L.D. Hinzman, 1998. “An analysis of streamflow hydrology in the Kuparuk River Basin, Arctic Alaska: a nested watershed approach.” Journal of Hydrology, 206: 39-57.

• Woo, M.K., D.L. Kane, S.K. Carey, and D. Yang, 2008. “Progress in Permafrost Hydrology in the New Millennium.” Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, 19: 237-254.

• Woo, M.K., and X.J. Guan, 2006. “Hydrological Connectivity and Seasonal Storage Change of Tundra Ponds in a Polar Oasis Environment, Canadian High Arctic.” Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, 17: 309-323.

Hydrology Panel

Doug Kane, Water and Environmental Research Center, UAF

Matthew Sturm, Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory

Amy Tidwell, Water and Environmental Research Center, UAF

Larry Hinzman, International Arctic Research Center, UAF

Anna Liljedahl, International Arctic Research Center, UAF

An Overview of North Slope Hydrology and Potential Response to Climate Change

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