An Overview Based on the IPCC Fifth Assessment …...2017/02/12 · An introduction to climate...
Transcript of An Overview Based on the IPCC Fifth Assessment …...2017/02/12 · An introduction to climate...
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An introduction to climate change An Overview Based on the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)
Jean-Pascal van Ypersele
(Univ. catholique de Louvain, Belgium) Former IPCC Vice-Chair (2008-2015)
Twitter: @JPvanYpersele
Infocycle BTC (Belgian Technical Cooperation), Brussels, 12 February 2017
Thanks to the Walloon Government and to my team at the Université catholique de Louvain for their support
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http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/10/lying-statistics-global-warming-edition
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LyingWithSta,s,cs,GlobalWarmingEdi,on
http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/10/lying-statistics-global-warming-edition
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LyingWithSta,s,cs,GlobalWarmingEdi,on
http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/10/lying-statistics-global-warming-edition
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WhytheIPCC?
toprovidepolicy-makerswithanobjec,vesourceofinforma,onabout
• causesofclimatechange,• poten,alenvironmental
andsocio-economicimpacts,
• possibleresponseop,ons(adapta,on&mi,ga,on).
WMO=WorldMeteorologicalOrganiza,onUNEP=UnitedNa,onsEnvironment
Programme
Established by WMO and UNEP in 1988
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What is happening in the climate system?
What are the risks?
What can be done?
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IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Key messages from IPCC AR5 ! Human influence on the climate system is clear ! Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems
! While climate change is a threat to sustainable development, there are many opportunities to integrate mitigation, adaptation, and the pursuit of other societal objectives
! Humanity has the means to limit climate change and build a more sustainable and resilient future
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Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850.
In the Northern Hemisphere, 1983–2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years (medium confidence).
(IPC
C 2
013,
Fig
. SP
M.1
a)
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Since 1950, extreme hot days and heavy precipitation have become more common
9
There is evidence that anthropogenic influences, including increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, have changed these extremes
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Arc,cSeaIceCover(1979-2016)
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PlateauGlacier(1961)(Alaska)
h#p://www.weather.com/news/science/environment/alaskas-glaciers-capturing-earth-changing-our-eyes-20131125?cm_ven=Email&cm_cat=ENVIRONMENT_us_share
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PlateauGlacier(2003)(Alaska)
h#p://www.weather.com/news/science/environment/alaskas-glaciers-capturing-earth-changing-our-eyes-20131125?cm_ven=Email&cm_cat=ENVIRONMENT_us_share
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K"*07)!20!*3),*7)!1)*64)3)4!-"*07)!
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Jean-Pascal van Ypersele ([email protected])
CO2concentraLonmeasuredatMaunaLoa(3400m)
Source: Dr. Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL (www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/)
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Without Greenhouse Effect
solar
20%
Infrared
-18 C
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Tyndall (1861) mesure l’absorption du rayonnement par les gaz
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With Greenhouse Effect
solar
20%
Convection,etc...
Infrared
H2O
CO2, CH4...
+15 C 95%
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Figure SPM.5 Radiative forcing estimates in 2011 relative to 1750
All Figures © IPCC 2013
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Bertrand et al. 2001
Separate effect of different factors in the 2-dimensional climate model at UCL
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Bertrand et al. 2001
Combined effect of all factors in the 2-dimensional climate model at UCL
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AR3 AR2
AR1 AR4
A Progression of Understanding: Greater and Greater Certainty in Attribution
AR1 (1990): “unequivocal detection not likely for a decade”
AR2 (1995): “balance of evidence suggests discernible human influence”
AR3 (2001): “most of the warming of the past 50 years is likely (odds 2 out of 3) due to human activities”
AR4 (2007): “most of the warming is very likely (odds 9 out of 10) due to greenhouse gases”
IPCC
RG>!O:;<=Q!SF+!21!8W(48581"&1#@81"&!O.MM1!T>!.8+!.U!<;;Q!+"*+!"8/*0!20V8)0-)!!"*1!W))0!+")!M./20*0+!-*81)X!Y!
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(Lüthi et al.,2008, NOAA)
+30%
2014
The concentrations of CO2 have increased to levels
unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years.
1000 years before present
CO
2 Con
cent
ratio
ns (p
pm)
Atmospheric concentrations of CO2!
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Carbon cycle: unperturbed fluxes
Units: GtC (billions tons of carbon) or GtC/year (multiply by 3.7 to get GtCO2)
120
70.5
70
2300
Atmosphere pre-ind : 597
38000 Ocean
3700
respiration
Physical,
Chemical, and Biological processes
photosynthesis 119.5
280 ppmv (1ppmv = 2.2 GtC) GtC
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Carbon cycle: perturbed by human activities (numbers for the decade 1990-1999s, based on IPCC AR4)
Units: GtC (billions tons of carbon) or GtC/year
120
70.5
70
2300
Atmosphere pre-ind : 597
38000 Ocean
3700
GtC + 3.2/yr
déforestation (& land use changes) Fossil fuels
6.4
-244 +120 -40
1.6 sinks
2.6 respiration
2.2
Physical, Chemical, and
Biological processes
photosynthesis 119.5
[email protected] Stocks!
280 ppmv + 1.5 ppmv/yr (1ppmv = 2.2 GtC)
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Thecarboncycleispolicy-relevant
• CO2accumulatesintheatmosphereaslongashumanemissionsarelargerthanthenaturalabsorp,oncapacity
• HistoricalemissionsfromdevelopedcountriesthereforemaZerforalong,me
• Aswarmingisfunc,onofcumulatedemissions,thecarbon«space»isnarrowingfast(tostayunder1.5or2°Cwarming)
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IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
AR5 SYR SPM
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IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Sources of emissions Energy production remains the primary driver of GHG emissions
35% 24% 21% 14% 6.4%
2010 GHG emissions
Energy Sector
Agriculture, forests and
other land uses
Industry Transport Building Sector
AR5 WGIII SPM
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RCP Scenarios: Atmospheric CO2 concentration
AR5, chapter 12. WGI- Adopted version / subject to final copyedit
Three stabilisation scenarios: RCP 2.6 to 6 One Business-as-usual scenario: RCP 8.5
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Only the lowest (RCP2.6) scenario maintains the global surface temperature increase above the pre-industrial level to less than 2°C with at
least 66% probability
(IPC
C 2
013,
Fig
. SP
M.7
a)
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18-20000 years ago (Last Glacial Maximum) With permission from Dr. S. Joussaume, in « Climat d’hier à demain », CNRS éditions.
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Today, with +4-5°C globally With permission from Dr. S. Joussaume, in « Climat d’hier à demain », CNRS éditions.
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IPCC, WGI, Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections Supplementary Material RCP8.5
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Precipitation projections Annual rainfall projections
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#$&()8&b;:`H]&-.8$+4#2&E+$$C+1
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Sea level due to continue to increase
(IPC
C 2
013,
Fig
. SP
M.9
)
(Ref: 1986-2005)
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B/2112.01!O6`!-.0-)0+,*L.01Q!6`!+)/$),*+8,)!6`!1)*64)3)4!
Emissions!(all GHGs)! Sea-level!
~3°C!
~1.5m!
> 3m!
Source: adapted from Schae"er et al., Nature clim. chg. (2012) !
Global average !temperature!
~1.7°C!
< 1m!
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With 1 metre sea-level rise: 63000 ha below sea-level in Belgium (likely in 22nd century, not impossible in 21st century)
(NB: flooded area depends on protection)
Source: J.P. van Ypersele et P. Marbaix (2004) See www.climate.be/impacts
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(Time 2001)
Effets sur le Delta du Nil, où vivent plus de 10 millions de personnes à moins d’1 m d’altitude
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With 8 metre sea-level rise: 3700 km2 below sea-level in Belgium (very possible in year 3000)
(NB: flooded area depends on protection)
Source: J.P. van Ypersele et P. Marbaix (2004) See www.climate.be/impacts
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Global ocean surface pH (projections)
Ocean Acidification, for RCP 8.5 (orange) & RCP2.6 (blue)
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Oceans are Acidifying Fast !!!.
Changes in pH over the last 25 million years
Turley et al. 2006
•! It is happening now, at a speed and to a level not experienced by marine organisms for about 60 million years •!Mass extinctions linked to previous ocean acidification events
•! Takes 10,000 s of years to recover
Today is a rare event in the history of the World
Slide courtesy of Carol Turley, PML
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DJFseasonalchangesinheavyprecipita,on(%),2071-2100comparedto1971-2000
IPCC,AR5,WGII,Chap.23,p.1277
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IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
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•! Tropics%to%the%poles •! On%all%continents%and%in%the%ocean •! Affecting%rich%and%poor%countries (but the
poor are more vulnerable everywhere)
AR5 WGII SPM
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IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Potential Impacts of Climate Change
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A/-+)"$)@%@1$#D"-)*)/(%&'%#)&#D)%
<&"$("D%E&&@1/0%
AR5 WGII SPM
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ALREADY OCCURRING ADAPTATION IS
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Flood risk adaptation in Bangladesh (example): cyclone shelters, awareness raising, forecasting and warning
Sources: IPCC SREX (Special Report on extreme events!) and IPCC AR5, H Brammer, Clim Risk Management 2014 p.51-62
Sources: IPCC SREX (Special Report on extreme events!) and IPCC AR5, H Brammer, Clim Risk Management 2014 p.51-62
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IPCC, AR5, SPM, Figure SPM.8
Regional key risks and potential for risk reduction through adaptation F"()+%
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IPCC, AR5, SPM, Figure SPM.8
Regional key risks and risk reduction through adaptation
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Risquemajeurpourl’Afrique:eauAggrava,ondespressionsexercéessurlesressources
hydriquesdéjalourdementsollicitéesparlasurexploita,onetladégrada,on,etquiferontfaceàl'aveniràune
demandeaccrue.Stressdûàlasécheresseexacerbédanslesrégionsafricainesdéjaexposéesàcefléau(degrede
confianceéleve).
IPCC,AR5,GTII,RID,p.21
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Risquemajeurpourl’Afrique:agricultureBaissedelaproduc,vitedesculturesdueàlachaleuretàla
sécheresse—dontlesconséquencessurlesmoyensdesubsistanceetlasécuritealimentairedespays,desrégionsetdesménagespourraientêtregraves—ainsiqu'auxdommagescausésparlesravageurs,lesmaladiesetlesinonda,onssurl'infrastructuredes
systèmesalimentaires(degredeconfianceéleve)
IPCC,AR5,GTII,RID,p.21
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Figure TS.7. Sensitivity of cereal yield to climate change
Maïs
Blé
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Risquemajeurpourl’Afrique:santéVaria,onsdel'incidenceetdel’extensiongéographiquedesmaladiesàtransmissionvectorielleoud’originehydriqueduesàl'évolu,ondestempératuresetdesprécipita,ons
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IPCC,AR5,GTII,RID,p.21
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Jean-Pascal van Ypersele ([email protected])
Relationship between maximum temperature and mortality in Shanghai, China, 1980-89
Référence : ClLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN HEALTH, 1996
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IPCC, AR5, SYR, SPM 8
Regional key risks and potential for risk reduction: Small Islands
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IPCC, AR5, SPM, Figure SPM.8
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WITH CONTINUED HIGH EMISSIONS
INCREASE
RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
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+1.5°C +2°C
~pre-ind 1986-2005
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Cumulative emissions of CO2 largely determine global mean surface warming by the late 21st century and beyond.
Fig. SPM.10
© IP
CC
201
3
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Fig. SPM.10
Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.
© IP
CC
201
3
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IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
The window for action is rapidly closing 65% of the carbon budget compatible with a 2°C goal is already used NB: this is with a probability greater than 66% to stay below 2°C NB: this is with a probability greater than 66% to stay below 2°C
Amount Used 1870-2011:
1900 GtCO2
Amount Remaining:
1000 GtCO2
Total Carbon Budget:
2900 GtCO2
AR5 WGI SPM NB: Emissions in 2011: 38 GtCO2/yr
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IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
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i=jK!
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GHG emissions accelerate despite reduction efforts. Most emission growth is CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes.
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IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Limiting Temperature Increase to 2˚C
Measures exist to achieve the substantial emissions reductions required to limit likely warming to 2°C
A combination of adaptation and substantial, sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can limit climate change risks
Implementing reductions in greenhouse gas emissions poses substantial technological, economic, social, and institutional challenges
But delaying mitigation will substantially increase the challenges associated with limiting warming to 2°C
AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM,AR5 WGIII SPM
Measures exist to achieve the substantial emissions reductions required to limit likely warming to 2°C
A combination of adaptation and substantial, sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can limit climate change risks in greenhouse gas emissions can limit climate change risks
But delaying mitigation will substantially increase the challenges associated with limiting warming to 2°C
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Can temperature rise still be kept below 1.5 or 2°C (over the 21st century) compared to pre-industrial ? •!Many scenario studies confirm that it is technically and economically feasible to keep the warming below 2°C, with more than 66% probability (”likely chance”). This would imply limiting atmospheric concentrations to 450 ppm CO2-eq by 2100.
•!Such scenarios for an above 66% chance of staying below 2°C imply reducing by 40 to 70% global GHG emissions compared to 2010 by mid-century, and reach zero or negative emissions by 2100.
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IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Mitigation Measures
More efficient use of energy
Greater use of low-carbon and no-carbon energy - Many of these technologies exist today - But worldwide investment in research in support of GHG mitigation is small!
Improved carbon sinks - Reduced deforestation and improved forest management
and planting of new forests - Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage
Lifestyle and behavioural changes AR5 WGIII SPM
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• Mitigation requires major technological and institutional changes including the upscaling of low- and zero carbon energy (quadrupling from 2010 to 2050 for the scenario limiting warming below 2°C)
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All sectors and regions have the potential to contribute by 2030
Note: estimates do not include non-technical options, such as lifestyle changes.
(avoided emissions: the higher, the better)
IPCC AR4 (2007)
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Substantial reductions in emissions would require large changes in investment patterns.
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• Substantial reductions in emissions would require large changes in investment patterns e.g., from 2010 to 2029, in billions US dollars/year: (mean numbers rounded, IPCC AR5 WGIII Fig SPM 9)
• energy efficiency: +330 • renewables: + 90 • power plants w/ CCS: + 40 • nuclear: + 40 • power plants w/o CCS: - 60 • fossil fuel extraction: - 120
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IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Ambitious Mitigation Is Affordable ! Economic growth reduced by ~ 0.06%
(BAU growth 1.6 - 3%/year) ! This translates into delayed and not forgone growth ! Estimated cost does not account for the benefits of reduced climate change ! Unmitigated climate change would create increasing risks to economic growth and efforts to eradicate poverty AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM
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Mitigation can result in large co-benefits for human health and other societal goals.
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IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
The Choices Humanity Makes Will Create Different Outcomes (and affect prospects for effective adaptation)
With substantial mitigation
Without additional mitigation
Change in average surface temperature (1986–2005 to 2081–2100) AR5 WGI SPM
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The Hidden IPCC Message:
• If it’s possible and not enough
happens, what is lacking? • Political will, at the appropriate
scale
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Jean-Pascal van Ypersele ([email protected])
Useful links: !! www.ipcc.ch : IPCC (reports and videos) !! www.climate.be/vanyp : my slides and other
documents !! www.skepticalscience.com: excellent
responses to contrarians arguments !! On Twitter: @JPvanYpersele and @IPCC_CH