An introduction to key concepts commonly used in the analysis of the economy by the Research...
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Transcript of An introduction to key concepts commonly used in the analysis of the economy by the Research...
An introduction to key concepts commonly used in the analysis of the economy by the Research Department
Michael Adams
23 June 2014
EN/ADM/2014/Pres/14
2
MFSM/GFS
GFS
MFSM
SNA
BOP
SNA
Introduction
QB March 2011
Visually orientated introduction Economists usually focus on economic growth, stability
and equity Evaluating the state of the economy:
– Economic growth SNA 1993– Full employment (BC)– Balance of payments (BoP) stability BPM5– Price and financial market stability MFSM2000– An equitable distribution of income GFSM2001
4
Reason for chart
• Three fold• Cannot analyse economy without taking into account
all four macroeconomic accounts• According to the four manuals• Three accounts accrual basis (SNA, BoP, MFSM)• 1ST January to 31ST December • One account cash-flow (GFS) ? Semi• 1st April to 31ST March • Adjustments between cash and accrual
(challenged)• Economic analysis /inter linkages in the economy
across divisions• Staff training and development
Economic analysis/interlinkages
• Design of the Chart• Colour coded• Segments 1-38• Follow format of the Quarterly Bulletin
• BIG BLOCKS• SNA
• Domestic output• Gross domestic expenditure
• GFS• General government• Public corporations
• All institutions must fit in somewhere in the four macroeconomic accounts
Economic relationships
QB March 2011
Identity relationship:
– GDP = GDP agriculture + GDP mining + GDP manufacturing
………… GDP Gov.Services
– Trade account = X mining + X agriculture + X manufacturing - M
mining – M agriculture – M manufacturing
– Money supply = M1 + M2 +M3– Credit extension = Households + corporates – G -T= Deficit
Behavioural relationship:
– Ct = a + b.Ydt + d.interest ratet+ ɛt
Economic interpretation
QB March 2011
8
Booklet
• Definitions• Flow of chart• Use for Pre-MPC (discussion)• Various forms being used in the Department (NO1, B03,
C68 and F02)• Balance sheet or income statement• Balance sheet – stock position• Income statement – flow position• Government cash-flow position
Economic chart
QB March 2011
CONCLUSION
No means exhaustive Each division use area to expand Time series structure Overview Reasons for changes Read the Quarterly Bulletin and the economic overview
of the country
Thank you
Tel: +27 12 313 3874
Fax: +27 12 313 4014
QB March 2011