CHPR

An integrated hurricane prediction and response system that allows:

•Strategic planning (weeks): energy, transportation, supply chains, financial, agriculture, water resources management, …

•Landfall preparation (days): emergency managers, local businesses, offshore activities, communities, individuals, …

•Tactical response (hours): e.g., emergency managers, power, communications, …

Vision for CHPR

CHPR

CHPR Objectives•Establish a collaborative environment for conducting integrated research and testing new ideas

•Understand limits of predictability of tropical cyclone genesis, intensity and rapid intensity change on timescales of hours to weeks

• Innovative approaches to prediction of patterns of extreme winds, rain, storm surge, inland flooding, and tornadoes at landfall

• Improve understanding of the socioeconomic impacts of hurricanes in relation to human behavior and public communication of risk

•Stimulate the transfer of new knowledge and technology to operational and decision making practice

•Diversity-rich education and outreach for the next-generation of hurricane forecasters, societal leaders, and coastal residents

CHPR

•Establish a collaborative environment for conducting integrated research and testing new ideas

•Understand limits of predictability of tropical cyclone genesis, intensity and rapid intensity change on timescales of hours to weeks

• Innovative approaches to prediction of patterns of extreme winds, rain, storm surge, inland flooding, and tornadoes at landfall

• Improve understanding of the socioeconomic impacts of hurricanes in relation to human behavior and public communication of risk

•Stimulate the transfer of new knowledge and technology to operational and decision making practice

•Diversity-rich education and outreach for the next-generation of hurricane forecasters, societal leaders, and coastal residents

CHPR

A New Paradigm for Hurricane Prediction

Global model predictions of

genesis and track weeks in advance

Ensemble high-res. coupled atmos-wave-

ocean model predictions of rapid

intensity change

Forecast of extreme winds,

rain, storm surge and

floods

Statistical rendering to

reduce model systematic error

Forecasts of landfall impacts using sectoral

impact models

Understanding predictability and

improving prediction

New data assimilation tech

August 14, 2007

Hurricane Dean8/22 landfall MX Cat 5

TS Erin 8/16 landfall TX

Optimized probabilisticforecasts hrs-weeksfor decision making

Days

Observed Hurricane Ike

High-resolution (1.3km) model forecast of Hurricane Ike

UMCM

OperationalHurricane

GFS

UM Mini-ensemble forecast of Hurricane Ike

Data Assimilation Strategies

CHPR

• Strong data assimilation team among partners• Atmosphere

– NCAR WRF variational methods (3DVar, 4DVar)– OU, NCAR, UW, UM Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) – New Hybrid VAR/EnKF approach

• Ocean– UM/NRL variational and ensemble assimilation of ocean data

• Coupled Model– New DA in fully coupled models– Optimal Targeting of a/c: radar, drops., & ocn. soundings– Land-based radars– Satellite

• Use the above tools for sensitivity and predictability studies & to design future targeting strategies