An integrated forecasting system for global reactive gases ... · Evaluation of the GEMS...
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An integrated forecasting system for global reactive gases in the troposphere and stratosphere The GRG sub-project of MACC Claire Granier (LATMOS, France and CIRES/NOAA ESRL, USA), Olaf Stein (MPI-M Hamburg & FZ Jülich), Martin G. Schultz (FZ Jülich), and the MACC GRG group - Contact: [email protected] Objectives of the project: Develop an operational modelling system with data assimilation to forecast and analyze trace gas concentrations in the troposphere and stratosphere Perform multi-year reanalysis of the atmospheric chemical composition Begin the development of a fully coupled chemistry transport model based on the ECMWF integrated forecasting system in order to eliminate inconsistencies arising from the coupled set-up developed previously within the GEMS project. Three global chemistry transport models have been coupled to the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) using the OASIS4 coupling software. Meteorological fields and chemical tendencies are exchanged at hourly intervals. The GEMS-GRG system uses the data assimilation capabilities of the IFS system, which have been extended to accommodate column data of ozone, NO 2 , CO, HCHO and SO2. The MOZART, TM5 and MOCAGE models are used for forecasting/analysis, and the MOZART model is used for the reanalysis. Forecasts and Reanalysis The prototype once-daily system run in the preparatory GEMS project will be evolved in MACC so it produces global analyses and forecasts twice-daily within a few hours of observation time. The cut-off times for observational data receipt and the production schedule will be chosen to optimise real-time product quality for users. MACC will provide a reanalysis of global atmospheric composition for the period 2003 - 2011. It will use satellite observations from different platforms. The simulated distributions will be compared with in-situ observations and surface data: for example, measurements from the GAW and NOAA/GMD networks will be used, together with aircraft data from the IAGOS (In-service aircraft for a global observing system). The reanalysis is expected to start early 2010 and as soon as plots and data products are available, they will published on the web pages of the MACC project. In the mean time MACC provides results from the 2003 - 2007 reanalysis of the preceding GEMS project. Examples of products: - Monitoring and forecasting of global atmospheric composition :daily analysis and 4-day forecast of global 3-dimensional ozone, carbon monoxide and aerosol - Reanalysis of global atmospheric composition for the period 2003-2011 (this reanalysis will start at the beginning of 2010) - Support for scientific observations campaigns: specific plots and special tracers to support campaign, such as the HIPPO campaign (Pole to Pole observations) - Global fire emissions:observations of fire radiative power to estimate global fire emissions of CO2, CH4, CO, NOx, etc. and aerosols Link : http://www.gmes-atmosphere.eu/data/ eyih: MOZART-IFS with assimilation eyq6: MOZART-IFS control run without assimilation MOZART standalone run MOZAIC data 2003 Siberian fires case studies Simulations represented in the figure: MOZART V10 = December 2008 stand-alone reference run for the year 2003. GRG anthropogenic emission and 8-day GFEDv2 fire emissions. F026 = 2nd reanalysis run with assimilation (SCIAMACHY, MIPAS, GOME, SBU). MOCAGE v2: stand-alone reference run. Uses vertical profiles of 8-day GFEDv2 for CO fire emissions inventories. TM5 V7: Uses GRG anthropogenic emission inventories and monthly GFEDv2 for fire emissions inventories, injected in different amount to certain height levels. From retrospective analysis for 2003 - 2009 Total column carbon monoxide Aerosol optical depth at 550nm July 2003 July 2004 July 2005 July 2006 July 2007 The GEMS GRG modeling system The integrated system to be developed within MACC Within MACC, a demonstration version of a new model will be developed in which tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry will no longer run as separate models with a coupling interface to the ECMWF IFS, but will become part of the IFS code. The new model will consist of a flexible modular system which will allow for the exchange of specific parts of the chemistry code (reaction system, solver, emissions, deposition, etc.). Some preparatory work will be performed in order to create a portable model code, train the project partners in ECMWF coding rules and test the components of the system, and more specifically the tracer transport scheme. Evaluation of the products The MACC project includes a detailed evaluation of the simulations products. The reanalysis simulations and the quality of the predictions are assessed using routine chemical observations and event-based case studies. Reports on the detailed evaluation work previously performed within GEMS and on the different metrics used for assessing the results are available from the GEMS project web site. Two examples are included in this poster, which emphasize the role of data assimilation Evaluation of the GEMS reanalysis: Comparison with observations from the MOZAIC aircraft during ascent/descent at the Frankfurt airport. CO vertical profiles for August 2003. Results of the reanalysis for aerosol optical depth and total column carbon monoxide for the months of July from 2003 to 2007 from the GEMS reanalysis. Forecasting of the global composition of the atmosphere for November 29, 2009. Surface North American CO tracer Surface North American CO tracer Surface North American CO tracer The MACC project web site: http://www.gmes-atmosphere.eu assimilated atm. columns
Transcript of An integrated forecasting system for global reactive gases ... · Evaluation of the GEMS...
An integrated forecasting system for global reactive gasesin the troposphere and stratosphere
The GRG sub-project of MACC
Claire Granier (LATMOS, France and CIRES/NOAA ESRL, USA), Olaf Stein (MPI-M Hamburg & FZ Jülich),Martin G. Schultz (FZ Jülich), and the MACC GRG group - Contact: [email protected]
Objectives of the project:
Develop an operational modelling system with data assimilation to forecast and analyze trace gas concentrations in the troposphere and stratosphere Perform multi-year reanalysis of the atmospheric chemical composition Begin the development of a fully coupled chemistry transport
model based on the ECMWF integrated forecasting system inorder to eliminate inconsistencies arising from the coupled
set-up developed previously within the GEMS project.
Three global chemistry transport modelshave been coupled to the ECMWF IntegratedForecasting System (IFS) using the OASIS4coupling software. Meteorological fields andchemical tendencies are exchanged at hourlyintervals.
The GEMS-GRG system uses the dataassimilation capabilities of the IFS system,which have been extended to accommodatecolumn data of ozone, NO2, CO, HCHO andSO2. The MOZART, TM5 and MOCAGEmodels are used for forecasting/analysis,and the MOZART model is used for thereanalysis.Forecasts and Reanalysis
The prototype once-daily system run in the preparatory GEMSproject will be evolved in MACC so it produces global analyses andforecasts twice-daily within a few hours of observation time. Thecut-off times for observational data receipt and the productionschedule will be chosen to optimise real-time product quality forusers.MACC will provide a reanalysis of global atmospheric compositionfor the period 2003 - 2011. It will use satellite observations fromdifferent platforms. The simulated distributions will be comparedwith in-situ observations and surface data: for example,measurements from the GAW and NOAA/GMD networks will beused, together with aircraft data from the IAGOS (In-service aircraftfor a global observing system).The reanalysis is expected to start early 2010 and as soon as plotsand data products are available, they will published on the webpages of the MACC project. In the mean time MACC providesresults from the 2003 - 2007 reanalysis of the preceding GEMSproject.
Examples of products:- Monitoring and forecasting of global atmospheric composition :daily analysisand 4-day forecast of global 3-dimensional ozone, carbon monoxide andaerosol- Reanalysis of global atmospheric composition for the period 2003-2011 (thisreanalysis will start at the beginning of 2010)- Support for scientific observations campaigns: specific plots and specialtracers to support campaign, such as the HIPPO campaign (Pole to Poleobservations)- Global fire emissions:observations of fire radiative power to estimate globalfire emissions of CO2, CH4, CO, NOx, etc. and aerosols
Link : http://www.gmes-atmosphere.eu/data/
eyih: MOZART-IFSwith assimilation
eyq6: MOZART-IFScontrol run withoutassimilation
MOZART standalonerun
MOZAIC data
2003 Siberian fires case studies
Simulations represented in the figure:MOZART V10 = December 2008 stand-alone reference run forthe year 2003. GRG anthropogenic emission and 8-day GFEDv2fire emissions.F026 = 2nd reanalysis run with assimilation (SCIAMACHY,MIPAS, GOME, SBU).MOCAGE v2: stand-alone reference run. Uses vertical profiles of8-day GFEDv2 for CO fire emissions inventories.TM5 V7: Uses GRG anthropogenic emission inventories andmonthly GFEDv2 for fire emissions inventories, injected indifferent amount to certain height levels.
From retrospective analysis for 2003 - 2009Total column carbon monoxideAerosol optical depth at 550nm
July2003
July2004
July2005
July2006
July2007
The GEMS GRG modeling system
The integrated system to be developed within MACC
Within MACC, a demonstration version of a newmodel will be developed in which tropospheric andstratospheric chemistry will no longer run asseparate models with a coupling interface to theECMWF IFS, but will become part of the IFS code.The new model will consist of a flexible modularsystem which will allow for the exchange ofspecific parts of the chemistry code (reactionsystem, solver, emissions, deposition, etc.). Somepreparatory work will be performed in order tocreate a portable model code, train the projectpartners in ECMWF coding rules and test thecomponents of the system, and more specificallythe tracer transport scheme.
Evaluation of the products
The MACC project includes a detailed evaluation of the simulations products. Thereanalysis simulations and the quality of the predictions are assessed using routinechemical observations and event-based case studies.Reports on the detailed evaluation work previously performed within GEMS and on thedifferent metrics used for assessing the results are available from the GEMS project website. Two examples are included in this poster, which emphasize the role of dataassimilation
Evaluation of the GEMS reanalysis:Comparison with observations from theMOZAIC aircraft during ascent/descent atthe Frankfurt airport. CO vertical profiles forAugust 2003.
Results of the reanalysis for aerosol opticaldepth and total column carbon monoxidefor the months of July from 2003 to 2007
from the GEMS reanalysis.
Forecasting of the globalcomposition of the atmosphere
for November 29, 2009.
Surface North American CO tracer
Surface North American CO tracer
Surface North American CO tracer
The MACC project web site: http://www.gmes-atmosphere.eu
assimilatedatm. columns
