AN INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL OF THE FRENCH ECONOMY

. ' 4 -

by

P a tr ic k H.enaff

Thesis subm itted to the Facu lty o f the Graduate School

o f the U n iv e rs ity o f Maryland in p a r t ia l fu lf i l lm e n t

o f the requirem ents fo r the degree of

Master o f A rts

1980

APPROVAL SHEET

T it le o f Thesis: An Inpu t-O u tpu t Model o f the French Economy

Name o f Candidate: P a tr ic k HenaffMaster o f A r ts , 1980

Thesis and A bstrac t Approved:CLopper Almon, J r .P rofessorDepartment o f Economics

Date approved: i n o

ABSTRACT

T i t le o f Thesis : An Inpu t-O u tpu t Model o f the French Economy

P a tr ick H6n a f f , Master o f A r ts , 1980

Thesis d ire c te d by: Dr. Clopper Almon, J r . , P ro fessor o f Economics,

Department o f Economics

This study develops an in p u t-o u tp u t model o f the fre n ch economy,

in c lu d in g both a model in constant p r ic e s th a t produces fo re ca s ts o f

domestic output by in d u s try and the framework o f a p r ic e model th a t

fo recasts c u r re n t-p r ic e va lue added and domestic p r ic e s .

Because the French in p u t-o u tp u t ta b le s show flow s in purchaser p rices,

w ith non -deductib le value-added tax in c lu d e d , severa l trans fo rm ations are

necessary to o b ta in homogeneous e va lu a tio n o f flow s across the rows of

ta b le s . S p e c if ic a t te n t io n is given to the accounting o f the value-added

tax and trade m argins. Behaviora l equations are estim ated fo r th ree f in a l

demand components, and the model in constant p r ice s is completed by an

employment b lock fo re c a s tin g labor p ro d u c t iv ity and the length o f the work

week.

As opposed to the re a l s ide , where the f in a l demand components are

fo recasted by product a t the le ve l o f aggregation o f the in p u t-o u tp u t table

(88 com m odities), the p r ic e model fo re ca s ts the c u r re n t-p r ic e value added

in a 3 5 - in d u s tr ie s c la s s if ic a t io n and then a llo c a te s i t to the 88 I/O

sec to rs . Close a tte n t io n is given to th is b r id g in g . However, since no

behavio ra l equations were estim ated fo r the p r ic e model, a fo re ca s t is

f in a l ly run using exogenously s p e c if ie d p r ic e s . A re fe rence fo re c a s t and a

v a r ia n t are presented fo r the pe riod 1980-1985.

The model is b u i l t w ith the SLIMFORP program developed by the Inforum

P ro je c t at the U n iv e rs ity o f Maryland and a t the In te rn a t io n a l In s t i t u te

fo r Applied System A na lys is (IIASA) in Laxenburg, A u s tr ia . I t is

a n tic ip a te d th a t th is model w i l l be developed in to the French member o f an

in te rn a t io n a l system o f in p u t-o u tp u t, models being co -o rd in a te d by IIASA.

La c u is in e est un a r t sim ple

e t to u t d 1execution

Curnonsky

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

I wish to thank Dr. Clopper Almon, my a d v is o r/ fo r h is guidance

through th is p ro je c t.

I am a lso g ra te fu l* to the I n s t i t u t de Recherche en In fo rm a tique e t

A u tom a tique (IR IA ) fo r h is support over the year 1979, which made th is

stay a t the U n iv e rs ity o f Maryland p o s s ib le .

A l l computations were undertaken on the U n iv e rs ity o f Maryland Univa

1108. Generous support by the Computer Science Center is g r a te fu l ly

acknowledged.

I f in a l ly want to express my most h e a r t fe l t a p p re c ia tio n to my w ife ,

Ann, who was in s tru m e n ta l in chasing the G a llic is m s out o f the m anuscript

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ............................................................. . . . . . . . . . . . . i i i

I . OVERVIEW OF THE STUDY ......................................................................... . . 1

1.1 In tro d u c tio n ........................................... ................................. .... . . 1

1.2 Plan o f the Study ........................................................ .... 2

I I . ECONOMIC ACCOUNTING ....................................... ............................. .... 5

1 .2 D e sc rip tio n o f the INSEE I/O Table . . . . . . . . . . . 5

2 .2 The Value-Added Tax . . . . ...................... ..................... .... . . 9

2.3 Accounting o f the Trade Margins .................. * . . . . . . 1 6 '

2 .4 Government E xpend itu res , Non A llo ca te d S e rv ices , Imports 23

2.5 Time Series o f F in a l Demand Components . . . . . . . . . 26

I I I . PRICES USED IN THE FORECAST OF THE FINAL DEMAND COMPONENTS . . 28

3.1 E va lua tion o f Im ports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 8

3 .2 From the Output D e fla to rs to th e Comsumer P rices . . . . 31

3 .3 Eva lua tion o f Exports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - 34

3 .4 Summary . . . . . . . . . ........................................... .... . . . 36

IV . ESTIMATION OF THE FINAL DEMAND COMPONENTS . . . . . . . . . . . 40

4.1 P riva te consumption Expenditures .......................... . . . . . 4 0

4 .2 Exports .................................................................................. . . . . 5 0

4.3 Imports ............................................................................................ . 62

V. ESTIMATION OF THE LABOR REQUIREMENT ................................................* . '7 1

5.1 The P ro d u c tiv ity Equations ....................................... . . . . . 72

5.2 E stim ating The Length o f the Work W e e k .......................... .... . 77

5.3 E stim ation o f the T o ta l Employment by In d u s try .................. 81

V I. DESCRIPTION OF THE PRICE MODEL .................................................... .... 84

Chapter Page

iv

6.1 S truc tu re o f the P rice Model ...................... . . . . . . . . 84

6.2 Computation o f the C u ren t-P rice Value Added . . . . . . 91

V I I . FORECAST 1980 - 1985 ............................................................. .... .105

7.1 Reference Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .105

7 .2 V a rian t ...................... .... • • • • • • - • • • - • • • ■ • i118

V I I I . DIRECTIONS FOR FUTURE WORK ................................... .... . . . . . . . . .125

8.1 Developments to the Real Side . . . . . . . . . . . . .125

8.2 Computation o f the Labor Cost in the P rice Model . = . .125i ■ '

LIST OF APPENDIX TABLES

1 T it le s o f the I/O S ecto rs , Employment In d u s tr ie sand Value-Added Categories .. . . . . . . . ................................ .- . . 132

2 Value-Added Tax Equations .......................................................................... 138

3 Grouping o f Sectors in the PCE Equations .................. . . . . . . 140.

4 P riva te Consumption Expenditures Equations ....................................... 143

5 Export Equations ................................................................. . . . . . . . 146

6 Equations to Forecast R e la tive Prices o f Exports . . . . . . .1 4 8

7 Equations fo r Domestic P rices . . . . . . . ...................... . . .1 4 9

8 Import Equations .............................. . . . . . . . ........................... . 150

9 Equations fo r R e la tive P rices o f Im ports ....................................... .... 153

10 Work Week Equations ........................................... ...................................... . 154

11 Labor P ro d u c tiv ity Equations Type I • ...................... 155

12 Type I I ................................................ 157

13 Type I I I , Constra ined ..................159

14 Type I I I , Unconstra ined . . . . . 161

15 Reference Forecast ......................................................................... . . . 163

16 A lte rn a te Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190

Table page

v i

1

CHAPTER I

OVERVIEW OF THE STUDY

1.1 In tro d u c tio n1.2 Plan o f the study

1. In tro d u c tio n

The present study develops an in p u t-o u tp u t model o f the French economy

which f i t s in to a network o f in te rn a t io n a l models. In the recent p a s t,

exports have become the d r iv in g fo rc e o f the French economy. At he same

t im e , im ports have had a c r i t i c a l impact on i t , e ith e r because o f increased

fo re ig n com petition or soa ring p r ic e s o f im ported energy sources and raw

m a te ria ls . Such a s itu a t io n is faced by many o ther c o u n tr ie s ; in these

tro u b le d economic tim e s , the re is no need to emphasize the growing

interdependency o f the economies o f the Western world through th e ir fo re ig n

tra d e . As a r e s u lt , a comprehensive modeling o f the fo re ig n tra d e secto r

has become a necessary p a rt o f every model. The behavior o f a n a tio n a l

economy should be fo recas ted w ith in an in te rn a t io n a l system o f models;

on ly th is can p rov ide a comprehensive modeling o f in te rn a t io n a l tra d e .

The c o n s tru c tio n o f such a system is c u r re n tly underway, coord ina ted

by Inforum^ and I IA S A ^ . This system inc ludes two components:

- A set o f in p u t-o u tp u t models, one fo r each major coun try . At t h is p o in t ,

models a t va rious degree o f s o p h is t ic a t io n e x is t fo r Canada, Japan,

Germany, the N e the rlands, the U.K. and the U.S.

- A n in te rn a t io n a l trad e model which acts as a l in k in g mecanism between the

n a tio n a l models. Th is model was constructed by D. Nyhus in 1975^.

In o rder to make the l in k in g e a s ie r , every n a tio n a l model is

constructed accord ing to a common framework and uses a standard set o f

2

programs c a lle d SLlMFORP.

The present study f i t s in to t h is p ro je c t in two re spec ts : i t p rovides

a s ta r t in g p o in t fo r the French model and develops the programming o f a

p r ic e model fo r SLlMFORP.

1.2 Plan fo r the study

Chapter 2 describes the va riou s tra n s fo rm a tio n s performed to make the

INSEE input-^output ta b le more app ro p ria te fo r our purpose. The two main

steps are described in s e c tio n 2 . 2, where the removal o f the value-added

tax is described , and in se c tio n 2 .3 , which addresses in d e ta i l the

problems o f accounting fo r trad e m argins. A new p r ic e system is d e fin e d ,

the "standard p r ic e system ", and a l l the in p u t-o u tp u t c a lc u la t io n s w i l l be

performed in th is p r ic e system.

Chapters 3 to 6 dea l w ith the e s tim a tio n o f the c o n s ta n t-p r ic e model.

Chapter 3 describes the va rious p r ic e systems used in the fo re c a s t o f the

f in a l demand components. The main p o in t is found in se c tio n 3 .1 , where the

correspondence between the standard p r ic e and the consumer p r ic e is

discussed. In chapter 4 , we estim ate the b e h a v io ra l equations a t the

in p u t -output le v e l o f d e ta i l fo r p r iv a te consumption e xp e n d itu re s , im ports

and expo rts . F in a l ly , the fo re c a s t o f employment by in d u s try is d iscussed

in chapter 5 . This chapter concludes the p re se n ta tio n Of the

c o n s ta n t-p rice model. Chapter 6 describes the p r ic e s ide o f the model. In

sec tion 6 . 1, we g ive a general p re se n ta tio n arid pay s p e c if ic a t te n t io n to

the in te ra c t io n mechanism between the c o n s ta n t-p ric e model and the p r ic e

model. In se c tio n 6 .2 , a d e ta ile d d e s c r ip tio n is g iven o f how the

c u rre n t-p r ic e va lue added is computed a t the in p u t-o u tp u t le v e l. These

computations represent a s ig n if ic a n t ex tens ion o f the softw are p re v io u s ly

3

ceveLoped a t In fo rum and IIASA. Th is chapter concludes our d e s c r ip t io n o f

"■he model.

In chapter 7 , two a lte rn a te fo re c a s ts are presented. Since a t th is

o in t our model s t i l l depends q u ite h e a v ily on exogenous assum ptions, the

d iscussion o f each fo re c a s t is preceded by a p resen ta tio n o f the unde rly ing

assumptions. Chapter 8 concludes th is study by suggesting developments to

the present model.

4

1 In te r in d u s try Forecasting P ro je c t a t the U n iv e rs ity o f M aryland.

2 In te rn a tio n a l I n s t i t u te fo r Applied System A n a lys is , Laxenburg, A u s tr ia .

3 Douglas Nyhus, TheTrade Model o f a .pynam icW orId Inpu t-O u tpu t Forecasting System, unpublished Ph.D. d is s e r ta t io n , U n iv e rs ity o f M aryland, 1975-

5

Economic Accounting - Remodeling the INSEE Inpu t-O u tpu t Table

2.1 D e sc rip tion o f the I/O ta b le , as re leased by the INSEE2.2 The Value-Added Tax2.3 Accounting o f the trad e margins2.4 Government expe nd itu res , non a llo c a te d s e rv ic e s , im ports2.5 Time se rie s o f f in a l demand components.

This chapter describes the in p u t-o u tp u t ta b le s as they are c u rre n tly

released by the INSEE, and discusses the va riou s tra n s fo rm a tio n s performed

to make the ta b le s more ap p ro p ria te fo r the c a lc u la tio n s in which they w i l l

be used. The bas ic idea w i l l be to make the u n its o f measurement

homogeneous across a row o f the ta b le . Because the INSEE ta b le s are in

purchaser p r ic e s , some e n tr ie s in a row c a rry la rg e trad e margin and

value-added tax (the value-added tax w i l l be re fe rre d from now on as VAT)

w h ile o the r e n tr ie s c a rry almost no margin o r ta x . In s e c tio n 2 , we

discuss how the VAT was removed from the ta b le . In s e c tio n 3 , the concept

o f "standard trad e margin r a t io " is in tro d u c e d , and used to estim ate every

element in a row w ith homogeneous tra d e m arg ins. We s t a r t , however, by

ta k in g a c lo se r look a t the ta b le as i t is re leased by the INSEE.

2.1 D e scrip tion o f the in p u t-o u tp u t ta b le

The in p u t-o u tp u t ta b le shows in d u s t r ia l p roduc tion broken down in to 87

products and se rv ic e s . Shown across one row are sales o f each product to

112 buyer ca tegories th a t can be grouped as fo llo w s . On the r ig h t hand

side o f the double ru le in Table 2.1 we f in d 14 f in a l demand buyers:

- Households and two ca tego ries o f a d m in is tra tio n s

- Six ca tegories o f in v e s to rs

- Four ca tegories o f changes in in v e n to r ie s

CHAPTER I I

I6

Table 2.1 - In p u t-O u tp u t Table INSEE

a> ta

Ml * m argin on in te rm e d ia te consum ption^

M2 * m argin on p r iv a te consum ption expend itu res

M3 « m argin on investm ent

M4 = m argin on expo rts

Com

mer

ce

Fin

al

Con

sum

ptio

n

Inve

stm

ent 6

&O4JS%w E

xpor

ts

Fina

l de

man

d

Tota

l us

e

T o ta l In t . Cons.

Value added 0

Value-added ta x 0

Im ports 0

T ransfers 0

Ml -TM1

M2 -TM2

M3 . -TM3

M4 -TM4

T o ta l use 0

TM1 ® to ta l row Ml

TM2 ® " " M2

TM3 » " " M 3

Tm4 » " ” M4

7

- Exports

These 14 columns add up to the f in a l uses o f a l l products and

s e rv ic e s .. The 87 by 88 ta b le on the l e f t hand s ide o f the double ru le

describes the in te rm e d ia te purchases o f goods and s e rv ic e s . For a g iven

product o r s e rv ic e , the sum o f a l l in te rm ed ia te and f in a l uses is by

d e f in i t io n equal to the domestic p roduc tion p lus the im p o rts . Domestic

production and im ports are found in the bottom rows o f the ta b le . Imports

in 88 p roduc ts , from a l l o r ig in s , are entered as a s in g le row. Domestic

production is the sum o f seve ra l components: t o ta l in te rm e d ia te consumption,

gross value added, tra n s fe rs and tra d e m argins.

The gross va lue added is by i t s e l f a t o ta l th a t can be broken down

in to th ree main components: labor income (wages and o th e r labor

com pensations), ta x e s , both d ire c t and in d ir e c t , and c a p ita l income, which

inc ludes d e p re c ia tio n , net in te re s ts and a f te r - ta x p r o f i t . In t h is ta b le ,

however, one in d ir e c t tax has been set apart from the value-added row: the

value-added ta x .

We next .f in d th re e tra n s fe r rows th a t make c o rre c tio n s fo r the

products th a t were so ld by one in d u s t r ia l s e c to r , but do not correspond to

i t s a c t iv i t y .

D Iia n s fe rs_o f_se cp n d a r^_£ ro d u c tip n . The n a tu ra l gas in d u s try produces

some su lphur w h ile re f in in g the gas. Th is p rodu c tion is re a llo c a te d to

the Non-Organic Chemicals secto r by e n te rin g in the f i r s t t ra n s fe r row

the p roduc tion o f su lphur w ith a negative s ign in the N a tu ra l Gas c e l l ,

and w ith a p o s it iv e s ign in the Non-Organic Chemicals c e l l (Sector names

are c a p ita liz e d ) .

■2) T ra n s fe rs ,o f research se rv ic e s . This row perform s the same kind o f

adjustment as the f i r s t t ra n s fe r rcw, but fo r se rv ices ins tead o f

8

merchandise. Th is row reduces the ou tput o f va rious sec to rs by the

amount o r ig in a t in g from the sa le o f s e rv ic e s , and adds th a t amount to

the Services to Businesses c e l l .

3) T rans fe rs , o f scales, Th is t h i r d row re a llo c a te s

to the: corresponding sectors1 ou tpu t o f the a d m in is tra tio n o r ig in a t in g

from a c t iv i t ie s which are not i t s purpose, such as the sa le o f used

fu rn itu re or o f wood from the n a tio n a l parks.

I t should be n o tice d th a t b y /d e fin it io n ^ e a c h o f these rows addsjup to

zero across the rowj

At la s t , we f in d fo u r trade margin rows. Each row shows the amount o f

tra d e margin charged on each product to a p a r t ic u la r ca tegory o f buyer.

There are fo u r c a te g o rie s : in te rm ed ia te cwsSne&s, households, in v e s to rs

and fo re ig n tra d e . Here aga in , the rows add up to zero across tJ^ejrow,£ o

since the c e l l number 6STcarries the nega tive o f the sum o f a l l the o the r

c e l ls across the row. We a c tu a lly f in d more p e c u lia r fe a tu re s about column

68.On the le f t hand s ide o f the double ru le o f Table 2 .1 , we f in d 88

columns o f in te rm ed ia te buyers. Appendix Table 1 l i s t s the t i t l e s o f these

88 columns. Note th a t we have on ly 87 p rodu c ts , or rows in the ta b le , fo r

the re is a Commerce column, but no Commerce row. How is the ta b le balanced

then? C le a r ly , the Commerce column has to have a zero o u tp u t: the to ta l

of in te rm ed ia te consumptions and value-added o f the Commerce column is

o ffs e t by the negative o f the sum across the row o f the tra d e margin rows.

Looking at Table 2 .2 , we f in d the in te rm e d ia te consumptions o f the Commerce

sector to be 57901 and i t s value added to be 169331. The dom estic ou tpu t

o f the Commerce secto r is th e re fo re 57901+169331= 227232. But the la s t

fo u r c e l ls o f the Commerce column add up to the nega tive o f the domestic

o u tp u t, causing the column to ta l to equal zero .

These trad e margins are a lready inc luded in the flow s showing sales to

in te rm ed ia te and f in a l buyers. The trad e margin on sa les o f a g r ic u ltu ra l

products, to p r iv a te consumption expenditures (PCE), found to be 26450 in

1976 (Table 2 .2 ) is in c luded in the t o ta l sales o f a g r ic u ltu r a l products to

PCE, which amounted to 58889.

We f in d a la rg e d iffe re n c e between the margin ra te charged to

in te rm ed ia te C onsumer anp

8060 / (136486 - 8060) = .062

and the tra d e margin ra te th a t households are charged:

26450 / (58889 - 26450) = .815

Our concern w ith the accounting o f the trad e m arg ins, to be developed in

sec tion 3 , stems from th is la rge d if fe re n c e .

T ra n sp o rta tio n costs are a lso inc luded in these f lo w s , as w e ll as the

non -deductib le VAT, so th a t the ta b le is sa id to be i n p u r c h a s e r p r i c e s .

Let us now take a c lo s e r look a t the accounting o f the VAT.

2 .2 The value-added tax

Businesses purchase products and s e rv ic e s , and the p r ic e they pay

inc ludes some VAT. The same businesses a lso charge VAT fo r the Tax

A d m in is tra tio n on the products they s e l l . In the s im p les t case, a business

w i l l reimburse the A d m in is tra tio n the d iffe re n c e between the VAT received

; along w ith i t s sa les and the VAT pa id on i t s purchases. I f the whole

amount o f the VAT paid could be sub trac ted from the VAT rece ived when

computing the balance due to the A d m in is tra tio n , then a l l the VAT would be

" d e d u c tib le " . R e a lity is never th a t s im p le , and p a rt o f the VAT paid

remains "n o n -d e d u c tib le " .

$4J1S«<

24832

73309

78926

-9

425

22653

43$5

591

8060

26450

925

115717

Table 2.2

57901

169331

-42637

-172240

-7951

-4404

a * & t>8 %

oi3s

HOS8 o

fcia lI *

136486 58889 978 14 1997 -2197 19550 79231 215717

PCE ® P riv a te Consumption Expenditures GOV ■ Government Spending

INVH » Investm ent o f Households INVAPB « Investm ent o f P u b lic A d m in is tra tio n s INVAPR ® Investm ent o f P riv a te A d m in is tra tio n s

INVIN » Investm ent o f Businesses INVBK « Investm ent o f Banking In s titu t io n s INVBU = Investm ent o f Insurance In s titu t io n s

VEN « Changes in In v e n to rie s F.D. * F in a l Demand

0

11

As a ru le , VAT pa id on goods d i r e c t ly used in the p rodu c tion process

is d e d u c tib le . Hence, a l l the VAT pa id on in te rm e d ia te consumption is

d e d u c tib le . For investm ents, the case gets more com plica ted . The VAT on

investment is ; d e d u c tib le i f the investm en t:

1- is e x c lu s iv e ly used fo r p roduc tio n

2 - and is used fo r producing products on whose sales some VAT is charged.

According to c o n d it io n 1 , the VAT pa id by a business on the purchase

o f a company car w i l l not be d e d u c tib le * C ond ition 2 im p lie s th a t farm ers

w i l l not be able to deduct a l l the VAT pa id on a g r ic u ltu r a l m achinery,

since p a rt o f the a g r ic u ltu r a l p rodu c tion does riot c a rry VAT. I f a

p a r t ic u la r farm er c o l le c ts VAT on on ly 70% o f h is p ro d u c tio n , he w i l l be

allowed to deduct on ly 70% o f the VAT he had to pay bn m achinery. A

n o n -p ro f i t .o rg a n iz a tio n is s im ila r ly u n fo rtu n a te , s ince i t does not charge

VAT on the sales o f i t s products o r s e rv ic e s . Banking in s t i t u t io n s cannot

deduct much VAT e i th e r , as they charge VAT on ly on se rv ice fe e s , but not On

t h e ir main source o f income, the in te re s t rece ive d . F in a l ly , a few

products such.as tobacco, o r se rv ices such as insu rance , do not c a rry VAT,

but a spec ia l sales ta x .

Now back to the ta b le . We f in d the non -deduc tib le VAT in a row as ar

value-added component. This e n try in , say, the paper in d u s try column, is

the VAT on paper products which the buyers w i l l not be ab le to deduct.

This non-deductib le VAT is unevenly spread over the row. The

non-deductib le VAT on f in a l consumption is ve ry close to the gross VATv .

p a id , since households have almost no way to deduct VAT. Conversely, as we

have seen, the non -deductib le VAT rem aining on investm ent is very sm a ll.

One exemption should be po in ted o u t: one th i r d o f the investm ent in

c o n s tru c tio n comes from households, who, aga in , cannot deduct VAT. The

12

non-deductib le VAT ra te on c o n s tru c tio n w i l l th e re fo re be h igher than fo r

other commodities, fo r which businesses are the on ly in v e s to rs .

What is the undes irab le e f fe c t o f t h is accounting o f the VAT? Let us

consider a product such as au tom ob ile , which is so ld both to households and

businesses,, For the f i r s t ca tego ry , sales are a c tu a lly recorded in the

ta b le VAT in c lud ed . For the second ca tego ry , sales are almost VAT

excluded. A s h i f t o f f in a l demand from PCE to investm ent by businesses,

the t o ta l demand s ta y in g co n s ta n t, w i l l decrease the non -deduc tib le

value-added ta x , and th e re fo re the dom estic p roduc t. A lso , i f the f in a l

demand components do not change a t e x a c tly the same ra te , the VAT per u n it

o f output w i l l v a ry , making meaningless long term comparisons. Th is is a

very undesirab le fe a tu re o f a system in tended fo r m id -to -lo n g -ra n g e

fo re c a s t. •

The s o lu tio n is c le a r ly to t r y to remove the non -d educ tib le VAT from

the ta b le . To do so, we would need fo r each product the im p l ic i t ra te o f .

non-deductib le VAT on in te rm e d ia te consumption, f in a l consumption and

investm ents. U n fo rtu n a te ly , such in fo rm a tio n was not a v a ila b le to us, and

we had to use a ra th e r s im p l is t ic approach. We assume f i r s t th a t there is

no non -deductib le VAT on the in te rm e d ia te consumption. N ext, we d iv id e the

f in a l demand components in to two groups. The f i r s t one inc ludes the seven

f in a l demand components th a t c a rry non -deductib le VAT at a ra te which is

close to the f u l l VAT ra te :

- PCE

-Governm ent expenditure (GOV)

- Investment o f households (INVH)

- Investment o f p u b lic and p r iv a te a d m in is tra tio n s CINVAPB,INVAPR)

- Investment o f insurance and banking in s t i tu t io n s ( 3MWOt>, INVBK).

13

The second group co n s is ts e x c lu s iv e ly o f the investm ent o f businesses,

th a t ca rry non -deductib le VAT at a much lower ra te than the f u l l ra te .

For each product i , we estim ate over the pe riod 1970-1978 the

r e la t io n :

VAT1 = a FNC1 + b INVBU1 + u , C2-1 □t i t i t t

where FNCj is the f in a l demand o f product i th a t c a r r ie s VAT a t the

high ra te

FNC1 = PCE1 + GOV1 + INVAPB1 + INVAPR1 + INVIN1 + INVBK1 + INVH1C2.23 t t t t t t t t

Since FNC a lready inc ludes the VAT, a V d - a 1) w i l l be the

estim ated im p l ic i t non -deductib le VAT ra te . We expect t h is ra te to be very

close to the ac tua l VAT ra te , th a t is 7% fo r a g r ic u ltu r a l p rodu c ts , 17.5%

fo r in te rm ed ia te goods and, la s t bu t not le a s t, 33% on such lu xu ry item s as

automobiles and s te reos . For most p rodu c ts , the reg ress ion c o e f f ic ie n ts

were found very co n s is te n t w ith these e xp e c ta tio n s . For a few p roduc ts ,

namely automobiles and c o n s tru c tio n , c o e f f ic ie n ts were constra ined such

th a t a. would be about th re e tim es b . . C o e ff ic ie n ts are l is te d in i iAppendix Table 2 .

With these c o e f f ic ie n ts in hand, we can compute VATFj and

VATIJ, the h ig h -ra te and lo w -ra te components o f the p re d ic te d

value-added ta x . In each ye a r, some re s id u a l, VATR^, remains:

VATR1 = VAT1 - VATF1 - VATI1 t t t t

We sim ply a llo c a te i t p ro p o r t io n a lly to the estim ated va lue o f each VAT

component. Let us i l lu s t r a t e the procedure w ith the data on a g r ic u ltu re

found in Table 2 .2 . For th is p ro d u c t, the reg ress ion c o e f f ic ie n ts were

found to be

ai = .072 b j = .049,

so th a t , fo r the year 1976,

VATF = .72 x (58889 + .978 '+ 14) = 4311 VATI = .049 x 1997 = 98

4409

The re s id u a l: is

VATR = 4384 - 4409 = -24

Table 2.3 shows the computations c a rr ie d to a llo c a te the re s id u a l between

VATR and the va rious components o f VATF. The^non -d educ tib le VATjt&~

s u b tra cted f r o m each f in a I demand component_and q ^ h e re d j i n t wo^columns:

one fo r the non -deductib le VAT o r ig in a t in g from high VAT ra te group, and

the o the r one fo r the VAT taken from the investm ent o f businesses. T o ta ls

in Table 2.3 and 2.5 do not match because o f rounding e r ro rs .

14

Table 2.3 - Computation o f the Non-D eductib le VAT

F in a l Demand Components

EstimatedVAT

Share A llo ca te dResiduals

Non-DeductibleVAT

PCE 4240 .962 -2 3 . 4216

GOV 70 .016 0. 70

INVAPB^— 1 .000 0. 1

INVBU 98 .022 - 1 . 97

TOTAL 4409 1.0 -2 4 . 4384

T h e .a g ric u ltu re row o f the 1976 ta b le "n o n -d e d u c tib le VAT excluded" is

shown in fa b le 2 .4 . Although we are going to ca rry a l l the c a lc u la tio n s

w ith the ta b le "n on -d educ tib le VAT exc luded ", i t would be a s im ple m atter

to get back to a ta b le "non -d e d u c tib le VAT in c lu d e d ". To i l lu s t r a t e the

procedure/ le t us in trodu ce the VAT back in to the ta b le . There is no

Table 2.4 - A g ricu ltu re Row, Non-Deductible VAT Excluded

problem w ith the second column, VATI: i t is a llo c a te d in f u l l to

investment by businesses, which becomes

1900 + 97 = 1997.

We then a llo c a te p ro p o r t io n a lly the VATF column between the seven f in a l

demand columns o f the high VAT ra te group. The com putation is shown in

Table 2 .5 . F in a l ly , the to ta l non -d educ tib le VAT is added to the row to ta l

16

VAT in c lu d e d ".

Table 2 .5 - From the Table "VAT Excluded" back to the Table "VAT In c lud ed "

F in a l Demand Components

Value, VAT Excluded

Shares A llo ca te dVAT

Value, VAT Inc luded

PCE 54672!

.983 I 4216 5889 5 U %

GOV 908 .016 j 70 978

INVAPB 12 .001 j 1 13

INVBU 1900 ■'A | '.1.0 97 1997

TOTAL 57492 -A • o • o 4384 61877

We w i l l now d iscuss a second c o rre c tio n th a t in troduces major changes

in the ta b le .

2.3 Accounting o f the trad e margins

Sales to in te rm e d ia te and f in a l demand consumers are entered in the

ta b le w ith trad e margins in c lud ed . Again, the re s u lt is th a t , when we add

across a row o f the ta b le , we are adding heterogeneous item s, s ince they

in c lude trade margins a t va rious ra te s . The trad e margin rows in the

value-added p o r t io n o f the INSEE ta b le g ive a breakdown o f the t o ta l margin

in to fo u r components: the margins on in te rm ed ia te consumption, investm ent,

p r iv a te consumption expenditures and e x p o rts . Id e a l ly , we would l ik e to

17

remove a l l the trad e m arg ins, and have our ta b le showing flo w s in producer

p rice s + tra n s p o rta t io n costs . Th is cannot be done, however, because we do

not have any in fo rm a tio n on how to a llo c a te the t o ta l trad e margin on

in te rm ed ia te ooraajmptq-efv among the 88 buyers. Since we have to leave the

margin on in te rm ed ia te cofreurop t i on in the ta b le , le t us c a l l th a t trade

margin "s tanda rd ". We de fin e the standard margin ra te on a p a r t ic u la r

product as the average trade, margin ra te on the in te rm e d ia te consumption of

th is p roduct. We are now going to eva lua te each f in a l demand component

w ith the standard margin in c lu d e d , as opposed to the a c tu a l margin

p resen tly in c luded . When th is w i l l be done, we w i l l have a homogeneous

measure o f the flow s along a row, s ince every flo w w i l l in c lu d e tra d e

margins in the same p ro p o rtio n .

The basic idea o f our com putation w i l l be to es tim ate fo r each product

the standard margin ra te , then compute the standard margin on each f in a l

demand flow o f the row. Ne x t , the d i ffe re n c e between the computed standard

marg in and the actua l margin_ixicj..ucle,d,JjnLjthe flo w wi 11 b^ removed. We w i l l

c a l l t h i_s d iffe re n c e "super M arg in ". A l l the super margins w i l l f i n a l l y be

added to the standard margins to make the ou tput o f commerce. Let us go

through the procedure one step a t the tim e . We w i l l i l l u s t r a t e our

d iscuss ion w ith data we are now fa m i l ia r w ith : the product " a g r ic u ltu re "

taken from the 1976 c u r re n t-p r ic e I/O ta b le . Having taken away the

non-deductib le VAT, the re leva n t data look now l ik e in Table 2 .6 .

The standard margin ra te , STMR, on a g r ic u ltu r a l products is

M1 = ________ 8060______________= .0623CIC + GOV)-M1 (136486 + 908 ) - 8060

Let us now compute the standard margin on PCE (STMP), investm ent (STMI) and

exports (STME).

Table 2.6 Trade Margins fo r A g ricu ltu re - 1976 Current Prices - T C la s s ific a tio n s

I .C .

PCE

00V

mv

EXP

VEN

Q

A g ricu ltu re Commerce i .e . PCE GOV 1NV EXP VEN Q

A g ricu ltu re 24832 136486 54672 908 1912 . 19550 -2197 211332

Commerce - -I I

VAT

Ml 8060

M2 26450

M3 0

M4 925

Output 211332

Where

-42637

-172240

-7951

-4404

Interm ediate consumptions

P riva te consunption expenditures

Government expenditures

Investments

Exports

Change in inven to ries

Output

Vo

D[ ei- S.

STMP = STMR x (PCE - M2) = .0623 x ( 54672 - 26^50) = 1758 STMI = STMR x (INV - M3) = .0623 x .(1913 - 0) - 119STME = STMR x (EXP - M4) = .0623 x (19550 925) = 1160

3037

The super margin on PCE (SUMP), on! investm ent (SUMI) and on expo rts (SUME)

are found to be:

SUMP = M2 - STMP = 26450 - 1758 = 24692 SUMI = M3 - STMI = 0 - 119 = -119 SUME = M4 - STME = 925 - 1160 = -235

We now remove the super margins from the A g r ic u ltu re row. To preserve the

o r ig in a l da ta , we do not su b tra c t d i r e c t ly the super m arg ins, but create

th ree new columns, one fo r each type o f super m argin. These columns w i l l? .

con ta in the super margins w ith the o po s ite s ig n , so th a t when we add across

a row, the super margins are Removed from the t o t a l . Th is o p e ra tio n sh o u ld "

not m odify the domestic p roduc tion nor the gross n a tio n a l p rodu c t. Hence, ^

the super margins th a t we have ju s t sub trac ted from the A g r ic u ltu re row

should now be in s e rte d back somewhere in the f in a l demand p a rt o f the

ta b le . Since the trade margins; are the ou tpu t o f the sec to r Commerce, i t

is n a tu ra l to in s e r t the super margins in the Commerce row. Th is row does

not e x is t fo r now: Commerce has a zero ou tpu t in the o r ig in a l INSEE ta b le .

In our presen ta t io n o f the ta b le , the Commerce column wi l l . have an output

equal to the to ta l trade margins,, .and th e re w i l l be a Commerce_row,_ adding

up o f course to the same t o t a l .

We in s e r t a blank Commerce row in the ta b le , and f i l l i t by adding in

the super margin c e l l the super margins sub trac ted from a l l the o the r rows

o f the super margin columns. In the fo llo w in g ta b le s , we w i l l represent by

CxH a c e ll, in which x has been added. S ta r t in g w ith row T , we in s e r t

24692, -119 and -235 in the 3 super margin columns, and the negative o f the

same th ree e n tr ie s in row 68, as shown in Table 2 .7 . To keep the

19 .

tab le 2.7 - I/O Table With Super Margin Columns '

A gric . Com.

A g ricu ltu re 24832

Commerce 11098

Tota l I.C . 8440

Value Added 78926

Transfers 416

Imports 22653

T a r if fs 591

Output 186993 (35436]

Tota lI.D . PCE GOV INV EXP AVEN SUMP SUM1 SlIME OUT

VATFNC

VATINV

136486 54672 908 1912 19550 -2197 -24692 119 235 186993 4287 97

0 0 0 0 0 1+246921 1-1191 1-235] {354361 0 0

/?.p -= Su f ^ ". o, A pr ^ ' :

21

accounting id e n t i t y between row and column to ta ls , the super margins we

have ju s t subtracted from the f in a l diemand should a lso be sub trac te d from

t h e ir corresponding trad e margin rows. The A g r ic u ltu re c e l ls o f the trade

margin rows are now reduced to the standard margin on PCE (STMP), on

investments (STMI) and on exports (STME).

The f i r s t column o f rows M1 to M4 are now as shown in Table 2 .7 - Note

th a t since we have sub tracted 24692-119-235 = 24338 from both row and

column 1, the accounts o f the secto r A g r ic u ltu re are s t i l l balanced. Since

we have a t the same tim e added 24338 to row and column 68, the accounts o f

the sector Commerce are a lso s t i l l balanced. Of course, the GNP has not

been a ffe c te d . The row M1, which con ta ins the margins on sa les to

in te rm ed ia te buyers, is fo r the moment unchanged. When we have done th is

fo r the 87 p roducts , the margin rows are s tr ip p e d o f t h e ir super margin

components, and on ly con ta in standard margins* The standard margins are

a lso pa rt o f the output o f the sec to r Commerce, so th a t we add to g e th e r our

fo u r trade margin rows, which add up to the t o ta l standard margin on the

sales o f each p roduc t, and in s e r t the t o ta l row in row 68 in the

in te rm ed ia te p o r t io n o f the ta b le . The column to ta ls are not changed, and

the row 68 now adds up to the t o ta l trad e m argin. The standard margins are

found in the in te rm ed ia te p o r t io n o f row 68, and the super margins are in

the th ree super margi n ceXl-S Q f row 68.

Up to now, we have ignored the fa c t th a t in p u ts in the ta b le come in

pa rt from domestic p roduction and in p a rt from im p o rts . Im ports are found

as a row, since the INSEE ta b le d is p la y s the t o ta l uses and resources o f a

product, and not the domestic o u tp u t. Since our purpose is to fo re c a s t the

la t t e r , we modify the ta b le so th a t the rows and columns w i l l sum up to the

domestic p rodu c tion . This is s im ply done by s u b tra c tin g the im ports from

22

the row to ta ls and in s e r t in g them w ith a negative s ign as a f in a l demand

component. The margin rows th a t we have s p l i t in to standard margins and

super margins con ta in the trad e margins on im ported goods as w e ll as the

trade margins on domestic p rodu c tion - Hence, in our Commerce row, the

element j is the t o ta l standard margin on sa le o f product j . However, th is

e n try represents the purchase o f the commerce se rv ice by dom estic in d u s try

j , and should th e re fo re con ta in the tra d e margin on on ly dom estic

production o f in d u s try j . I t should not in c lu d e the trad e margin on

im ported goods* The trade margin on im ported goods should neve rthe less be

in c luded in the ou tput o f commerce. We perfo rm , th e re fo re , the fo llo w in g

c o rre c tio n :

F i r s t , we compute fo r each product the standard margin on im ported

goods so th a t the standard margin on im ports is equal to the im p o rts , c i f +

t a r i f f s , tim es the standard margin r a t io .

Secondly, we create a new column beside the im port column. In i t we

en te r the standard margin on im ports w ith a nega tive s ig n . Th is standard

margin is a lso taken away from the standard margin in row 68, so th a t rows

and columns s t i l l add up to the same domestic o u tp u t. Since the ou tput o f

commerce should not be reduced, we cumulate the standard margins on im ports

in the c e l l "s tandard margin on im p o rts " o f row 68. L ike the otbej* margin

columns, th f. standard margins on im ports add to ze ro , so th a t 6NP is not

m od ified . The e n try in row 68, column j o f the in te rm e d ia te p o r t io n o f the

ta b le now shows the standard margin on d o m e s tica lly produced good j .

Let us make th is la s t c o rre c tio n to our A g r ic u ltu re row. Im ports o f

a g r ic u ltu ra l products amount to 22653, t a r i f f s are 591, so th a t the

standard margin on im ports is :

*STMM = (22653 + 5*1) x STMR

= (22653 + 5^1) x -0623 = 1448 J

This standard margin is sub trac ted from row 68- Table 2 .8 shows the row

A g r ic u ltu re a f te r th is la s t c o r re c tio n .

2 .4 Government spending, non -a llo ca te d in te rm e d ia te flow s

In the INSEE ta b le , government spending is found as an in te rm e d ia te

f lo w . Follow ing a w ide ly accepted p r in c ip le , we have s h if te d th is column

over to f in a l demand. The ta b le shows as w e ll the n o n -a llo ca te d

in te rm ed ia te consumption o f banking se rv ices bought by a dummy branch.

This flow accounts fo r the fa c t th a t account ho lders do not pay fo r the

f u l l cost o f the serv ices rendered to them by the bank. We want to

a llo c a te th is flow in o rder to keep a clean square in te rm e d ia te flo w

m a tr ix . The n a tu ra l way to do i t is to spread th is f lo w along the banking

se rv ices row p ro p o rt io n a lly to the purchases o f banking se rv ices by each

buyer. I t is e q u iv a le n t, and more sim ple to add th is n o n -a llo ca te d flo w to

the consumption o f banking se rv ices by i t s e l f , and t h is is what was done.

How does th is ta b le compare w ith an in p u t-o u tp u t ta b le in producer

p r ic e s , such as the one released by the Bureau o f Economic A na lys is (BEA)

o f the U.S. Department o f Commerce?

The BEA ta b le a lso g ives homogeneous measurements o f flow s across one

row, but these flow s do not in c lud e any trad e m argin. Moreover, the BEA

ta b le shows flow s in producer p r ic e s , which means th a t t ra n s p o r ta t io n costs

o f hau ling a l l the in te rm ed ia te in p u ts in to an in d u s try are lumped toge the r

in the tra n s p o rta tio n row sales to th a t in d u s try . In the o r ig in a l INSEE

ta b le , and in our m od ified p re s e n ta tio n , in te rm e d ia te flow s in c lu d e the

tra n s p o rta tio n costs o f hau ling these in p u ts from the p rodu ce r's p la n t to

23

I /O T a b le A f t e r th e L a s t T r a n n fo rm a t io n

AGR1 COMTOTAL

i . e . PCE GOV INV EXP IMP STM VEN SUMP SUM1 SUME OUT VATF VATFT

A g ricu ltu re 24832 136486 54672 908 1912 19550 -23244 -1448 -2197 -24692 119 235 162301 4287 97

Commerce 9650 ( 1448] [246921 [-119] 1-235] (35436)

T o ta l l . C . 82959

Value added 78926

Transfers 416

Output 162301 [35436 ]

25

the buye r's Loca tion . T he re fo re , the tra n s p o r ta t io n rows show as in p u t

in to in d u s try , the cost o f hau ling in d u s try i* s p ro d u c t.

Let us i l lu s t r a t e the p o in t w ith an example: the e le c t r ic u t i l i t i e s

in d u s try buys c o a l, tra n sp o rte d by r a i l , and o i l , tra n s p o rte d by p ip e . Thie

flo w o f c o a l, o i l , and t ra n s p o r ta t io n could look l ik e t h is :

Coal O il Coal 0 0 Rai I 0 0 O il 0 0 Pipe 0 0

In the INSEE ta b le , the same c e l ls would be

Coal O il E le c t r ic U t i l i t i e sCoal 0 0 35R a il C53 0 0O il 0 0 22Pipe 0 C23 0

Follow ing the same convention as above, C53 and L21 denote flow s in c lu d in g

these amounts along w ith charges fo r moving o i l and coal to in d u s tr ie s

o the r than e le c t r ic u t i l i t i e s . The coal in d u s try buys the tra n s p o r ta t io n

to move i t s product to i t s users, so th a t the p r ic e o f coal and o i l sold to

the e le c t r ic u t i l i t i e s in d u s try in c lud e the tra n s p o r ta t io n cos ts .

The second p re se n ta tio n has a d e f in i te advantage over the f i r s t one.

Consider a severe o i l shortage th a t causes the e le c t r ic u t i l i t i e s in d u s try

to sw itch com plete ly to co a l. I f we do not pay a t te n t io n , the e le c t r ic

u t i l i t i e s column in the BEA p re se n ta tio n w i l l have a zero c o e f f ic ie n t fo r

o i l , but s t i l l a non-zero c o e f f ic ie n t fo r p ip e . Hence, when perform ing

c o e f f ic ie n t changes o f product in p u ts , one must a lso keep tra c k o f the

tra n s p o rta tio n in p u t c o e f f ic ie n ts . C onversely, t h is is done a u to m a tic a lly

in our ta b le , s ince the coal and o i l in pu ts in to the e le c t r ic u t i l i t i e s

column inc ludes the tra n s p o r ta t io n cost along w ith the standard p r ic e o f

the purchase. A lso , tra n s p o r ta t io n data come on a p roduct-hau led b a s is , so

th a t i t is eas ie r to study com petition among modes in the INSEE ta b le than

in the BEA ta b le .

2.5 Time se ries o f f in a l demand components

In 1971, the nomenclature changed from a 78 to an 88 product

c la s s if ic a t io n . At the same tim e , seve ra l changes were made in the

accounting p r in c ip le s . As a r e s u lt , the c o n s is te n t se t o f in p u t-o u tp u t

ta b le s a v a ila b le y e a r ly s ince 1959 was in te r ru p te d . Tables in the new

c la s s if ic a t io n are a v a ila b le s ince 1970, the la te s t re lease being the 1978

ta b le .

Nine observa tions were o f course qu ite ,, in s u f f ic ie n t to estim ate the

f in a l demand equa tions. Since we were determ ined to es tim a te a l l

components o f the model in the new c la s s i f ic a t io n , we had to draw from

various sources to extend our tim e se r ie s o f f in a l demand components in the

new c la s s if ic a t io n s p revious to 1970.

Time se rie s o f p r iv a te consumption expend itu res in c u rre n t and

constant p r ice s were provided by the INSEE. Although no exact b ridg e ta b le

can be drawn from the o ld to the new c la s s if ic a t io n a t the pub lished le v e l

o f aggregation , such b r id g in g is p o s s ib le using worksheets where p r iv a te

consumption expenditures are d isaggregated in to 420 and 600 p roducts .

These worksheets were used to co n s tru c t the PCE tim e s e r ie s .

U n fo rtu n a te ly , INSEE d id not pursue the e f f o r t fo r the o th e r components o f

f in a l demand. We then had to re co n s tru c t the tim e s e r ie s fo r im p o rts ,

e xp o rts , and output on our own.

The a v a ila b le data were: tim e se rie s o f the th re e components in the

o ld c la s s if ic a t io n from 1959 to 1974, and secondly, a tim e se rie s o f tab les

in the new c la s s if ic a t io n a t an aggregated le v e l o f 15 p rodu c ts . Th is time

se rie s .o f 'ta b le s extends from 1959 to 1976.

L a s t ly , we had the short tim e se rie s in the new c la s s i f ic a t io n th a t we

wanted to extend, th is extension was done in a ra th e r crude way. F i r s t ,

each new c la s s if ic a t io n tim e se rie s was regressed (w ith o u t in te rc e p t) on

i t s most app ro p ria te coun te rpa rt in the o ld c la s s if ic a t io n over the period

o f f iv e overlapp ing years. The o ld c la s s if ic a t io n independent v a r ia b le was

then used to compute a p re d ic te d va lue o f the v a r ia b le in the new

c la s s if ic a t io n from 1969 back to 1959. Next, the p re d ic te d values were

aggregated in 15 products and scaled to match the ta b le da ta . The s c a lin g

proved to be very l ig h t most o f the tim e . The sc a lin g fa c to r was always

under 1*10, except fo r the secto r Household Equipment, where the s c a lin g

fa c to r reached 1.4 in 1959. F o rtu n a te ly , th is sec to r accounts fo r less

than 1% o f the to ta l o u tp u t.

The bas ic set o f data was then e s ta b lis h e d . We w i l l d iscuss the o ther

sources o f data as we come upon them.

28

CHAPTER I I I

The Prices Used in the Forecast o f

the F ina l Demand Components

3.1 E va lua tion o f im ports3’.2 From the output d e f la to rs to the consumer p r ic e s3.3 Eva lua tion o f exports3 .4 Summary

With th is chap te r, we s ta r t the d e s c r ip tio n o f the fo re c a s t o f f in a l

demand components in constant p r ic e s .

B ehaviora l equations have been estim ated fo r th ree f in a l demand

components, accounting fo r 64% o f t o ta l f in a l demand in the 1976 cu rre n t

p r ic e ta b le . These components are p r iv a te consumption e xpe nd itu res ,

im ports and e xp o rts . The o the r components, namely government expend itu res ,

investm ents and changes in in v e n to r ie s were l e f t exogenous.

Before we tu rn to the equations them selves, we have to take a c lo se r

look a t the p r ic e system in which we w i l l es tim a te and fo re c a s t each

component, s ince we have ju s t de fined in chapter 2 two systems o f p r ic e s ,

standard p rice s and purchaser p r ic e s . In s e c tio n 1 to 3 , we describe the

p r ic e systems used to estim ate im p o rts , PCE and e x p o rts , and summarize the

chapter in se c tio n 4 . Since the p r ic e o f im ports c o n tr ib u te s to consumer

p r ic e s , we f i r s t d iscuss fo re ig n p r ic e s and the e v a lu a tio n o f im po rts .

3.1 E va lua tion o f im ports

We make im ports o f product i dependent upon the domestic demand fo r

t h is p a r t ic u la r product and the r e la t iv e p r ic e s o f fo re ig n and domestic

production o f the same p roduc t. F ir s t o f a l l , we want to use co n s is te n t

domestic and fo re ig n p rice s to compute the r e la t iv e p r ic e s . Our source o f

29

data fo r fo re ig n p r ic e s , to be discussed in the next ch a p te r/ is an index .

o f fo re ig n wholesale p r ic e s - Hence, we should a lso use dom estic wholesale

p rice s fo r the computation o f the re la t iv e p r ic e s . Standard p r ic e s , which

in c lude on ly the margin ra te charged to in te rm e d ia te buyers, f i t

approxim ate ly th is requirem ent. This match is on ly approximate because our

standard p r ic e inc ludes some tra n s p o r ta t io n c o s t, w h ile the fo re ig n

wholesale p r ic e does not inc lude such co s t. U n fo rtu n a te ly , t h is is the

c lo ses t match we can f in d .

The im ports are entered in the ta b le "C o s t, Insurance and F re ig h t"

plus t a r i f f s . To fo re ca s t them in t h is p r ic e system, we should re la te them

to the domestic demand a t producer p r ic e s . I t i s , however, almost

e qu iva len t to fo re ca s t the im ports a t standard p r ic e s as a fu n c t io n o f

domestic demand estim ated .at standard p r ic e s . In the f i r s t case,

tra n s p o r ta t ib n costs are excluded; in the second case, t ra n s p o r ta t io n

costs are in c lud ed . How do we d e fin e im ports a t standard p rices? We

sim ply assume th a t the standard margin on im ported goods is the same as the

o v e ra ll standard m argin, fo r. each p a r t ic u la r p rodu c t, and we mark up

im p o rts , evaluated c i f + t a r i f f s by the standard margin r a t io . Again, we

sa id th a t eva lu a tin g both components a t standard p r ic e s was almost

equ iva len t to eva lu a tin g them both a t producer p r ic e s , because the standard

p r ic e is the sum o f the producer p r ic e p lus tra n s p o r ta t io n cost p lus

standard m argin. When we mark up im ports by the standard margin r a t io , we

s t i l l do not in c lud e the tra n s p o r ta t io n cost w ith in France. However, th is

discrepancy is be lie ved to be n e g lig ib le . Let us summarize th is d iscuss ion

in Table 3.1 by showing the cost s tru c tu re o f im ported goods and domestic

p rodu c tion . The b lack boxes show a t which p r ic e le v e l each component is

entered in the I/O ta b le .

Table 3-1 Cost S tru c tu re o f Domestic P roductionand Imported goods.

Imports Domestic P roduction

Super margin Super margin

Standard margin Standard margin

ConsumerP rice

Domestic T ranspo rt­a tio n cost

Domestic T ranspo rt­a t io n cost

T a r i f f s

Cost, Insurance, Fre igh t

Producer P rice

We now have the dependent and independent v a r ia b le s estim ated in a

s im ila r p r ic e system. Im ports , fo recas ted a t standard p r ic e s , a re , o f

course, converted back to " c i f + t a r i f f s " p r ic e s by ta k in g away the

standard margin on im po rts .

The dependent v a r ia b le o f the im port equation is then :

IMPS1 = (IMP* + TRF*) x (1 + STMR.) C3.13i i i i

where

IMPS. - im p o rts , evaluated a t standard p r ic e

*Mp-j = im ports CIF

TRFj = t a r i f f s on im ports o f product i

STMR.. - standard margin ra te on product i .

The general form o f the im port equation is then :

IMPS* = f (DD* , i i

C3.2:

31

where -

D D j- domestic demand fo r product i

= Qn* + IMPSi - EXPSi

= standard p r ic e index o f product i (ou tpu t d e f la to r )

PFORI^s wholesale fo re ign p r ice index fo r product i , to be discussed

in section 4 .3 .

3 .2 From the producer p rices to the consumer p rice s

We c le a r ly want to fo re ca s t PCE a t the p r ic e faced by the consumers, th a t

is , the purchaser p r ic e , which inc ludes the super margin and the

non-deductib le VAT. The exp lana to ry v a r ia b le s o f consumption o f product i

are d isposab le income, the change in d isposab le income, a tren d term and a

set o f re la t iv e p r ic e s . The r e la t iv e p r ic e s shou ld , o f course, be the

r e la t iv e p rice s th a t the consumer a c tu a lly faces : the purchaser p r ic e s .

However, the p r ic e model generates ou tpu t d e f la to r s ; a procedure has to be

found to compute the consumer p rice s from the output o f the p r ic e model.

The consumer p r ic e o f a product is the com bination o f th re e components:

- i t s standard p r ic e , SP,.

- the p r ic e o f the super margin on th is p ro d u c t, SMP

- the VAT mark-up.

The standard p r ic e and the p r ic e o f the super margin should be weightedr

by the shares o f the standard p r ic e va lue and o f the super margin in the

consumer p r ic e . The weights should th e re fo re be:

SUMP.PCE1.

Let us now de fin e the super margin r a t io on consumption o f product i in

year t :

32

1 PCE*i . . . .

SUMRP* i 2 2 2 $ ■ C3.33

I f we assume th a t the super margin r a t io fo r a g iven product is constant

over tim e , the weights can be w r it te n :

PCES| . <1 - SUMRP*) PCE? ■. . g„ MBP

pce! pce! 11 1

= SUMRP* = SUMRP C3 . 4H_ „_ t i i PCE.1

where

SUMRP.. = base year super margin r a t io on consumption o f product i .

Dropping the year su p e rs c rip ts fo r c la r i t y , the consumer p r ic e o f

product i in year t can be w r it te n :

CP = C(1 - SUMRP ) SP + SUMPRP SMP 1 x (1 + VATRP.) C3.5Di i i i i i

where

C P c o n s u m e r p r ic e o f product i in year t

= standard PCE p r ic e o f product i in year t

SMP.. = super margin p r ic e o f product i in year t .

Since the PCE inc ludes im ported goods as w e ll as d o m e s tica lly produced

goods, the standard PCE p r ic e o f a product is a weighted average o f the

standard domestic p r ic e , P^, and the standard p r ic e o f im ports o f th is

p a r t ic u la r p roduc t.

Two assumptions made in chapter 2 w i l l help to d e riv e from C3.53 a

33

simple re la t io n between the CP.. ^he ou tput d e f la to rs and the fo re ig n

p rice s * These assumptions are :

- The trade margin ra te is constant across the row in the in te rm e d ia te

p o rtio n o f the ta b le , and th e re fo re equal to the average margin ra te on

in te rm ed ia te consumptions.

- The im ports/dom estic p roduction r a t io is constant fo r a l l e n tr ie s o f a

row.

These assumptions were made necessary by lack o f d a ta . I t should be

noted th a t , w h ile they w i l l g re a t ly s im p lify the d e r iv a t io n o f the

consumer p r ic e s , they are by no means necessary to the com putation .

From the f i r s t assumption, one sees th a t the standard p ric e s are

equal fo r a l l buyers, so th a t the PCE standard p r ic e is the o v e ra ll

standard p r ic e . The o v e ra ll standard p r ic e is a weighted average o f the

standard domestic p r ic e and the standard p r ic e o f im p o rts . From

assumption 2, i t is seen th a t the weights are sim ply the o v e ra ll shares

o f im ports and domestic p roduc tion in the t o ta l use o f product i . SP-^

the standard p r ic e o f product i can th e re fo re be w r it te n :

SP. Qi P, + IMPSi SPM [ 3 . 6 ]1 Q. + IMPS. 1 Q. + IMPS.

where

= standard domestic p r ic e , i . e . , the output d e f la to r

SPM.. = standard p r ic e o f im ports

= (1 + STMR.) PFORI.J

Let us now consider SMP^ the p r ic e o f the super margin on the PCE

o f product i . The p r ic e o f the super margin is by d e f in i t io n the same as

the p r ic e o f the standard m argin; i t is the ou tput d e f la to r fo r the

34

Commerce s e c to r , s ince the Commerce row does not in c lud e any im p o rt.

SPM * p fo r a l l products i C3.7]i 68

le t w. = i1 Q. + IMPS.

then

SP = w P + <1 - w > x (1 + STMR.) x PFORI. C3.8Di i i i i i

When SP.. and SMP o f C3.5H are replaced by t h e ir va lues , we see th a t

CP^, the consumer p r ic e o f product i , can be expressed as a fu n c t io n o f

the fo re ig n p r ic e fo r product i and the ou tput d e f la to rs generated by the

p r ic e model.

3 .3 E va lua tion o f exports

Exports o f product i are dependent upon the fo re ig n demand fo r th is

product and r e la t iv e p rice s o f domestic p roduc tion over fo re ig n p r ic e s .

For the same reasons as the ones developed in se c tio n 3 .1 , we fo re c a s t

exports eva luated a t standard p r ic e s .

The genera l form o f the export equations is :

EXPS = f (FDEMt , Pi ) C3.9II1 1 p fo re !

where

EXPS. - exports o f product i in year t , evaluated a t standard p r ic e

FDEM. = index o f fo re ig n demand fo r product i in year t

PFORE s fo re ig n p r ic e index o f product i in year t , to be discussed

in sec tion 4 .2 .

The fo re ca s t o f exports w i l l however be d isp la yed in purchaser p r ic e s ,

c o n s is te n tly w ith the way exports are entered in the INSEE ta b le . The

exports a t purchaser p rice s are equal to the exports a t standard p r ic e s

plus the super margin on expo rts . To compute the super m arg in , we use the

same assumption as in sec tion 3 .2 : we assume th a t the super margin r a t io

on exports fo r a g iven product is constant over tim e :

SUMREV= -S iiS ii = SUMRE. C3.10H1 exp! 11

where

SUMRE? = super margin r a t io on exports fo r product i in year t

SUMRE.. s base year super margin r a t io

The super margin on exports o f product i in year t is then :

SUME = - J — .E-i EXPSt £3.113i 1 - SUMRE.. i

and the pu rcha se r-p rice exports are f in a l l y computed by:

EXPt = EXPSt + SUME1 = —----- ~ -----1 EXPS* C3.121i i i 1 - SUMRE. il

3.4 Summary

The reader may fe e l a t th is p o in t somewhat lo s t in the maze o f VAT

ra tes and super m argins. To get our b ea rings , le t us summarize w ith Table

3 .2 our d iscuss ion o f the p r ic e systems. This ta b le shows fo r each f in a l

demand component the p r ic e system in which i t is fo re c a s te d , and the

tran s fo rm a tion performed to convert the fo re ca s t in to the p r ic e system used

35

36

in the I/O ta b le . We w i l l comment on the ta b le in a moment, but le t us

f i r s t say a word about the programming o f the model, which w i l l e x p la in why

i t is so c r i t i c a l to have a c le a r view o f the va rious p r ic e systems.

A d is t in c t iv e fe a tu re o f the SLIMFORP program used to b u ild the model

is i t s capac ity to e a s ily accept exogenous c o n tro ls on the f in a l demand

components. I t is indeed p o ss ib le to o v e rr id e the fo recas ted va lue o f any

f in a l demand component by a value we s p e c ify . We w i l l do so e ith e r because

ac tua l data have been re leased , o r because we have some good reasons to

co rre c t the p re d ic te d va lu e , o r s im ply to experiment w ith the model. An

im portant question is then to know in which p r ic e system should those

exogenous c o n tro ls be en te red . Table 3 .2 answers th a t q u e s tio n , and shows

a t which stage o f the computation the va riou s c o n tro ls a f fe c t the

fo re c a s ts .

Let us now go through the ta b le . P r iv a te consumption expend itu res are

fo recasted in consumer p r ic e s . Any f ix e s we want to in tro d u ce to o ve rr id e

the computed va lue should a lso be s p e c if ie d in consumer p r ic e s . Next, the

VAT on PCE is taken away, using the VAT equation discussed in chapter 2 ,

sec tion 2 . F in a l ly , the super margin is computed, using the base year

super margin ra te on PCE, SUMRP.

I n v e s t m e n t s , i n t h e same w a y , a re f o r e c a s t e d a t p u r c h a s e r p r i c e s .

Then the VAT and the super margin on investm ents are computed.

Imports are estim ated in standard p r ic e s , then converted to " c i f + ..

t a r i f f s " p r ic e s , using the base year standard margin r a t io s . Since the I/O

ta b le shows im ports " c i f + t a r i f f s " , any f ix e s we want to s p e c ify on

im ports are a lso s p e c if ie d in th a t p r ic e system.

Exports are estim ated in th a t p r ic e system as w e ll. Using the base

year super margin r a t io on e xp o rts , the super margin on exports is

37

computed. Fixes on exports are s p e c if ie d in purchaser p r ic e s , s ince th is

is the p r ic e system in which the exports column is shown in the I/O ta b le .

The super margin is f in a l ly computed.

Through th is in t r ic a te procedure, we have t r ie d to reach two g o a ls :

- D isp lay the fo re ca s t and sp e c ify the f ix e s in the p r ic e system o f the

h is to r ic a l d a ta , so th a t they are re a d ily comparable w ith the pub lished

ta b le s .

- Estim ate the equations in a co n s is te n t system o f p r ic e s , but leave a l l

the necessary tran s fo rm a tions tran spa ren t to the user.

In the next chap te r, we s ta r t the d iscuss io n o f the e s tim a tio n o f the

behav io ra l equations fo r the f in a l demand components.

Table 3 .2 P rice Systems fo r the E s tim a tion and D isp lay o f the F in a l Demand Components

ESTIMATION

TRANSFOR MATIONS

DISPLAYEDFORECAST

TRANSFORMATIONS

DISPLAYEDFORECAST

P riva te Consumption Expenditures

Investments

Table 3 .2 (con tinued)

Im ports

ESTIMATION

TRANSFORMATIONS

FIXESc i f + t a r i f f s

\ /

FIXES at standard p rices

Im ports a t standard p rice s

DISPLAYED standard margin Im portsFORECAST on im ports c i f + t a r i f f s

Exports

ESTIMATION

TRANSFORMATIONS

DISPLAYEDFORECAST

FIXES at purchaser p rices

iI sumreI

j lFIXES at standard p rices

Exports a t standard p rice s

Super margin on exports

Exports at purchaser p rice s

40

CHAPTER IV

E stim a tion o f the F in a l Demand

Components

4.1 P riva te Consumption Expenditures4.2 Exports4.3 Imports

4.1 The p r iv a te consumption expenditures equations

This equation^ was designed to meet a number o f requ irem en ts, the

most s ig n if ic a n t be ing:

1) The form must add up, th a t is the t o ta l consumption p lus savings must

equal income.

2) The fu n c tio n should approximate S lu ts k y ’ s symmetry: the p a r t ia l

d e r iv a t iv e o f the (income compensated) demand fo r product i (such as

gas) w ith respect to the p r ic e o f product j (such as autom obiles) should

be about equal to the (income compensated) demand fo r product j w ith

respect to the p r ic e o f product i .

3) I t must be homogeneous o f degree zero in a l l p r ic e s and income:

doubling o f a l l p rices and income must not a f fe c t consumption.

C ondition 3 asks fo r a m u lt ip l ic a t iv e connection between p r ic e s and

the o the r determ inants o f consumption, income and the tim e tre n d . The

fo llo w in g form is th e re fo re proposed:

q = (a ( t ) + b j j ) I r p. C4.131 1 1 p a l l k k ■

where

y = cu rre n t p r ic e d isposab le income per ca p ita

p = aggregate p r ic e index

41

a^ ( t ) = tim e trend

P|< = p r ic e o f product k

The cond itions

2 *V = 1 ak ( t ) = 0 2 c ilc = 0a l l k a l l k a l l k

guarantee requirement, 1, provided th a t a l l p r ic e s stay constant or change

p ro p o r t io n a lly . Since r e la t iv e p rice s change, another v a r ia b le such as the

absolute change in y /p is needed to guarantee the adding up.

Let us now consider requirement 2 . I f we assume th a t the income

compensated d e r iv a t iv e o f q.. wi t h respect to p j is ju s t the d e r iv a t iv e

9-j, cons ide ring y /p cons tan t,

'y ‘’ j±r = constant P

requirement 2 can be re w r it te n

c ^ j , x q-j C 4 .2 3

c qi = c qj C4.331] --- ----q. q.

or

c . . p . q . s ._ i J = _ J x - J - - 3c . . p . q . s'.

] i i . i i

We now de fin e l..^ = c ^ / s j . By C4.33 we then see th a t L j j =

thus the I f j , not the c ^ j are sym m etric. To e a s ily impose

symmetry co n s tra in ts on the equa tions, i t is th e re fo re d e s ira b le to make

the parameters o f the equa tions. With more than 70 p rodu c ts , the re

would, however, be thousands o f p a irs o f products on which to impose

symmetric I * s . We cut down the number o f such L 's by d e f in in g groups and

42

subgroups o f re la te d commodities. Each product belongs to a group , and

maybe even to a subgroup, w ith in i t s group. A p a r t ic u la r product w i l l now

have at most 3 I ' s .

Let us consider a product i (such as gas) be long ing to the group G of

t ra n s p o rta t io n goods and to the subgroup S o f in d iv id u a l t ra n s p o r ta t io n

goods.

This product w i l l have an I equal to I w ith respect to products

not be longing to group G, an I equal to lg w ith respect to products

belonging to group G, but not to subgroup S and an I equal to l s w ith

respect to product be longing to subgroup S. Appendix Table 3 g ives a

l i s t o f the groups and subgroups.

This assumption leads to d ra s t ic s im p l if ic a t io n s o f C4.13. Since

L-jj = c ^ j / S j , C4.1l becomes fo r a product i be long ing to group G

q. C4.4]

sinceI = I k£G ik o

1 = 1 kGGik G

Let us now de fine-r- SkP = TT P. . . ka l l k

43

p = ( TT p sk ) 1/sG6 "

wheres = - Tv ' s = budget share o f group G

5 kCG k

^ = ^G “ ^o^ SG

then C |i = = LG Si

I Iq. = ( a . ( t ) + b . y ) p. n p„ G p ^o C4.53

i t i _ i GP

the c o n s tra in t y . c = 0 can now be expressed - • i t *

c i i + l ' g + ' i b - °

or

ci i = - 10 - 1 'g

so th a t the f in a l expression fo r C4.43 is

q = Ca ( t ) + b ty ) / p A ^ (2 C4.63

1 1 ’ p \p g / \P nI f the product i had been assigned to a subgroup S w ith in the group G, the

expression would have been

C4.73

where

'“S = sS^S “ ^

= SG^G " ^

s<j = budget share o f subgroup S

SG = budget share o f group G.

44

E la s t ic i t ie s o f the demand fo r product i w ith respect to p r ic e o f

product j can be computed from the budget shares and the I ' s by the

form ulae l is te d in ta b le 4 .1 .

The tim e tren d a ^ ( t) was de fined as a. Q + a- x tim e ; i t

should take in to account the e v o lu tio n o f consumer ta s te s . However, there

is a strong c o l in e a r i ty between tim e and y/p", so th a t i t is not po ss ib le to

estim ate the tim e trend c o e f f ic ie n t and the d isposab le income c o e f f ic ie n t

sim ultaneously by tim e se rie s a n a ly s is . The way around is to estim ate the

income c o e f f ic ie n t from c ro s s -s e c tio n , fa m ily survey da ta . We used the

income e la s t ic i t ie s computed by Young Sun Lee fo r the prev ious ve rs ion o f

the French model^. These e la s t ic i t ie s had, o f course, been computed in

the o ld c la s s if ic a t io n . For each product o f the new c la s s i f ic a t io n , we

sim ply picked the most app ro p ria te e la s t ic i t y computed in the o ld

c la s s if ic a t io n . With the income c o e f f ic ie n t in hand, le t us consider the

e s tim a tion o f the o the r c o e f f ic ie n ts . We w i l l i l l u s t r a t e our d iscuss io n

w ith the case o f a product i be long ing to a group G, so th a t we have to

estim ate aQ, a^ , b£ and l^ o f the equation C4.83. We

dropped the i su b sc rip t in the non -p rice component fo r c la r i t y .

q = ( a + a t + b y + b Z i y ) p ^G p.~^o C4.83i o 1 1 “ 2 — —i — i

? P PG P

The parameter l Q was picked and used in a l l groups. Experiments w ith

other data^ have shown .5 to be the most acceptab le va lu e , we th e re fo re

set our l Q to th a t va lue .

The e s tim a tio n is done through an i t e r a t iv e process. We s ta r t by

s e tt in g lg to zero , then lin e a r iz e C4.83 by a f i r s t o rder Tay lo r

expansion around th is s ta r t in g va lue :

45

q = (a + a t + b y + b A y ) / p >T "^ +......... C4.931 0 1 1? 2 ? v®1/

app ly ing o rd in a ry least-squares reg ress ion to th is l in e a r fo rm , we get a

f i r s t estim ate o f the param eters, a j , a ij, b^*

Let

A1 = a - + a1 t + .b]. x+ bl &JLo 1 1 ± 2 _P Pand q l be the corresponding p re d ic te d va lue o f q^> Let us

l in e a r iz e C4.83 around iJL = 0 , using our f i r s t estim ate o f A, A1 .

= -aV p \ ' Lo + I In / p \ AV p / P \ **q = A ' / D \ 'O + L m . / D \ A ' / D ' • / p \ o + ......... C4.103i

/ p \ - '- o + I In . / p \ AV p TLg / p \

fey- G u ) w W

Q. = A1^ " - 5 + Ls Ln j q1. +. . . . . . C4.11I

We apply again OLS to th is form and get a second estim ate o f A, A , along

w ith a new estim ate fo r l Q: l | . Frorn £4.113 we see th a t the

l in e a r iz e d form fo r q. around I t h e k**1 estim ate o f l r .

is :

q = A^ / p \ * ^ + I I n / p Nq . * + . . . . . C4.123i ' ~

since q. is re a d ily a v a ila b le from the p revious s te p , the i t e r a t iv e

process is e a s ily run. The process is run u n t i l the sum o f squares o f

re s id u a ls decrease by less than 1% from one i t e r a t io n to the nex t.

For some p rodu c ts , the e s tim a tio n led to such undes irab le re s u lts as

p o s it iv e o r exaggeratedly negative demand e la s t ic ie s w ith respect to th e ir

own p r ic e s . The c o e f f ic ie n ts were then constra ined to o b ta in acceptab le

46

va lues. Instead o f m in im iz ing SSDY, the sum o f square o f re s id u a ls , we

minimi ze

2 Cl - . * } 2D = 1 - R + r - ------— C4.133SSDY

| where

j I * = des ired va lue fo r I q

f I = estim ated value fo r 1^

jjjj' ' ' r is a measure o f how close to I * we want I to be.

% The problem is o f course to g ive r a se n s ib le va lue . I n t u i t i v e ly ,

t when I is fa r from I * , we w i l l be w i l l in g to g ive up a h igher f ra c t io n$J o f R to get c lose r to I * than when I is a lready q u ite c lose from

If I * . Let us express th a t :’*•* '1/ We have a q ua d ra tic in d if fe re n c e curve re la t in g R2 and the

d iffe re n c e ( l - l * ) .

-■ 2= 0 at I = I * C4.143

S i

Let us de fine the f i r s t d e r iv a t iv e a t another p o in t . At a g iven p o in t I * ,

we w i l l be w i l l in g to g ive up 1% o f R to get I 1% c lo se r to I * .

|5 -2 = ------— -------------- a t l = l* C4.153° l .01 C l1 - l*>

These two co n d itio n s de fin e a fa m ily o f in d if fe re n c e curves. Let

these curves have the genera l form

R2 = f ( l ) = a ( I - I * ) 2 + c

47

u s in g c o n d i t i o n 2 , th e d e r i v a t i v e a t I ' i s :

.01= 2a ( I* - I* ) *.01 ( I V - I )

so t h a t :

.01

2 x .01 Cl * - I * >2

so t h a t , on any p o i n t o f an i n d i f f e r e n c e c u r v e .

2 ★dR = .01 ( I - I )

* 2a i .01 ( I ' - L )

a R 2 = .01 ( I - I * )

a T .01 ( I * - I * ) 2

I n p a r t i c u l a r , a t th e p o i n t I w he re D i s minimum,

0a i ‘

a o _ _ dR 2 2 r < I “ ^ > = na i at SSDY

s in c e th e s o l u t i o n ( r2 ,1 * ) i s on an i n d i f f e r e n c e

dD . .01 C I - L * ) , 2 r ( I - I *a i .01 ( I ' - 1*r ) 2 SSDY

= 0

C4.163

exclud ing the t r i v i a l case I ' = I * ,

SSDY ' r = ---------------- *2 ( I 1 - I )

So th a t r is de fined by our s p e c if ic a t io n o f I ' . The advantage is th a t

w h ile i t was hard to get an in t u i t i v e fe e lin g fo r a value to g ive to r , i t

is q u ite easy to do so fo r I ' , as the drawing o f ta b le 4 .2 i l lu s t r a te s .

Let assume th a t the re la t io n between the o f the reg ress ion and

the va lue o f I looks as the do tted l in e : the OLS estim ate o f I is the

value th a t maximizes R^. Of course, an OLS estim ate w h ile I is

constra ined to be I * would y ie ld a lower R^. With I 1, we s p e c ify the

shape o f our in d if fe re n c e curve between r 2 and the d iffe re n c e

( I - I * ) . Such s p e c if ic a t io n de fines a fa m ily o f q u a d ra tic curves

symmetric w ith respect to the v e r t ic a l l in e I = I * . The va lue I th a t

minim izes D o f C4.13D is the coord ina te o f the p o in t where ah in d if fe re n c e

curve is tangent to the do tted l in e f ig u r in g the R ^ /l re la t io n s h ip .

In p ra c t ic e , the handling o f these c o n s tra in ts is com plicated by the

fa c t th a t the c o n s tra in ts are imposed on the I ' s , and not on the

e la s t ic i t ie s themselves. The e la s t ic i t ie s are re la te d to the I 's by the

form ulae l is te d in ta b le 4 .1 .

To estim ate these equa tions , we used tim e se rie s o f p r iv a te

consumption expenditures in the new c la s s if ic a t io n (88 p ro d u c ts ), from 1959

to 1976, in constant and cu rre n t fra n c s . The INSEE has recons truc ted the

tim e se rie s in the new c la s s if ic a t io n from 1959 to 1969. The e s tim a tio n

re s u lts are shown in Appendix Table 3 .2 .

The column labe led "own1' d is p la y s the e la s t ic i t y o f demand fo r each

commodity w ith respect to i t s own p r ic e . Health s e rv ic e s , reimbursed by

48

Table 4.1 R e la tion between the I ' s and the P rice E la s t ic i t ie s ,

e^. = e la s t ic i t y o f demand fo r good i w ith respect to p r ic e j .

For i € S C 6

e .. = - I ' <1- s . / s ) - I ' <1- s. / s > - I C1 —s .)i i S i S G i G o i

e . . = I ' s. / s„ + I 1 ' s. / s „ + I s . fo r j C S, j t ii j S 2 S G j G o j

e . . = l* s. / s „ + I s. fo r j C 6, j (£ Si j G j G o j ^

e = I s fo r j € Gi j o . j f

For i C G, where G does not in c lu d e subgroups

e = - I ' ( 1- s / s > - I ( 1- s ) i i G i G o i

‘ e . . = 11 s / s + 1 s . f o r j C G, j ii ] G j G o ]

e = I s fo r j Gi j o j

For i n o t b e lo n g in g t o a g ro u p

e = - I ( 1-s ) i i o i

e = I s f o r i ^ ji ] o j

i v * r i

the S ocia l S e cu rity fo r a t le a s t 80 % o f the t o ta l cost are o f course found

to have low e la s t ic i t y w ith respect to t h e ir own p r ic e . At the o the r

extreme, R a il T ra n s p o rta tio n , which has very c lose s u b s t itu te s , is found to

have a high e la s t ic i t y w ith respect to i t s own p r ic e . The next column,

Labeled "g ro u p ", shows the e la s t ic i t y o f demand w ith respect to the p r ic e

o f goods in the same group, but not in the same subgroup, i f any. S t i l l in

the T ranspo rta tion group, the p o s it iv e group e la s t ic i t y in d ic a te s

s u b s t itu t io n between the subgroup 9 , P r iv a te T ra n s p o rta tio n , and the

subgroup 10, P u b lic T ra n s p o rta tio n . The column Labeled "subgroup" shows

the e la s t ic i t y o f demand w ith respect to the p r ic e o f goods in the same

subgroup. Negative values in d ic a te com plem entarity w ith in a subgroup. As

expected, com plem entarity is found between g a s o lin e , autom obiles and t i r e s .

However, i t is not c le a r why such a s trong com plem entarity was found w ith in

subgroup 12, T e x t ile s and C lo th in g .

The goodness o f t h e f i t i s m easured by t h e a v e ra g e a b s o lu t e p e r c e n t

e r r o r , d i s p l a y e d i n th e c o lu m n l a b e le d AAPE. The a u t o c o r r e l a t i o n o f th e

r e s i d u a l s i s l i s t e d u n d e r t h e l a b e l " R h o " .

50

4.2 The export equations

The general form o f the export equations is

EXPSt = ( a + b FDEMt ) (P R E *)*^ [4.173i i i i i

where

EXPS. * = standard p r ic e exports o f product i

FDEM.. * = fo re ig n demand index

t 5 p t - jPRE. = y ] w. — 3_____ . - = r e la t iv e p r ic e index

1 i p fo re V ^. i

The c o n s t r u c t i o n o f FDEM and PFORE has t o be d i s c u s s e d . We w i l l f i r s t

d is c u s s th e s o u rc e o f d a t a , t h e n i l l u s t r a t e w i t h an e x a m p le t h e

c o n s t r u c t i o n o f th e tw o v a r i a b l e s .

Let us consider f i r s t the case o f merchandise e x p o rts , which inc lude

the f i r s t 67 sectors o f the I/O ta b le . FDEM, the fo re ig n demand index is a

weighted average o f the in d u s t r ia l p rodu c tion indexes o f the 8 major

tra d in g pa rtne rs o f France: USA> Canada, Japan, Germany/ The U . K . , I t a l y ,

Benelux, The N etherlands, p lus the " re s t o f the w o r ld " , aggregated in to the

9th p a rtn e r. The weights used are the base year f ra c t io n s o f French

exports shipped to each trad e partner-^. In the c o n s tru c tio n o f th is

aggregate index, in d u s t r ia l p roduc tion was used as a proxy fo r demand. Two

sets o f data were used: fo r the United S ta te s , we had indexes o f

in d u s t r ia l p roduction in 200 s e c to rs , so th a t we p icked the most

app ropria te elements to co n s tru c t se rie s in our 88 sec to rs c la s s if ic a t io n .

For o ther c o u n tr ie s , we used the indexes o f in d u s t r ia l p rodu c tion in 13

categories pub lished by the OECD. For each one o f the 88 p rodu c ts , the

most app rop ria te ca tegory was p icked . The weights were computed from the

m atrices o f in te rn a t io n a l trad e flow s in 119 commodities pub lished by the

OECD. For each I/O s e c to r , the data on the c lo se s t commodity was used to

compute the w e igh ts .

The fo re ig n p r ic e in d e x , PFORE, is the re s u lt o f a tw o-stage

com putation. F i r s t , fo r each one o f the 9 tra d in g pa rtn e rs o f France, an

aggregate p r ic e index o f im ports from a l l co u n tr ie s but France is computed.

These p r ic e indexes are th e re fo re the p r ic e o f the im ports competing w ith

French p roduc tion on each one o f the 9 n a tio n a l m arkets. To co n s truc t

these p r ic e indexes, we use fo r each coun try the wholesale domestic p r ic e

indexes, a v a ila b le in 119 commodities from the same OECD source. These

p r ic e indexes, r e f le c t the p ric e s in lo c a l cu rrency. Since we are going to

compare these p rice s to the p ric e s o f im ports from France, we need to

a d jus t these domestic p r ic e indexes fo r changes in the exchange ra te s .

This is done by m u lt ip ly in g each domestic p r ic e index by the index o f the

exchange ra te o f the lo c a l currency w ith the French fra n c . Secondly, these

9 p r ic e indexes are aggregated. Again, the weights used fo r the

aggregation are the f ra c t io n o f t o ta l French exports shipped to each

tra d in g p a rtn e r. We now have fo r each product a p r ic e index o f the exports

competing w ith French exports on the fo re ig n m arkets.

For the non-merchandise e x p o rts , which in c lud e 6 t ra n s p o rta t io n

sectors and 6 sec to rs o f s e rv ic e s , the US output indexes were used as

fo re ig n demand indexes, and the US output d e f la to rs were used as fo re ig n

p r ic e indexes. A lthough th is trea tm ent o f non-merchandise exports made

th ing s s im p le , and gave reasonable re s u lts , i t would have been more

app rop ria te to fo re ca s t each category o f non-merchandise exports by a

s p e c if ic equa tion . For example, the 200-order Inforum model, o f the US

52

economy re la te s passenger fa res to lagged output and the exports o f most

serv ices to the aggregate merchandise e xp o rts .

Let us f in a l ly i l lu s t r a t e the com putation o f FDEM and PFORE w ith a

sim ple example where the in te rn a t io n a l trad e is l im ite d to France and two

tra d in g p a rtn e rs , the USA and Japan. The trad e flo w m atrices fo r a

p a r t ic u la r product could look l ik e t h is :

Table 4.3 Trade Flow M atrices

1973 1974 1975

from /to USA JAP FR USA JAP FR USA JAP FR

USA 10 20 10 25 10 30

JAP : 40 10 50 15 60 20

FR 5 5 10 5 10 5

Indexes o f exchange ra tes du ring the pe riod were:

Table 4 .4 R e la tiv e Exchange Rates

French franc Yen U.S.

1973 1.00

inOO• 1.10

1974 1,00 .95 1,05

1975 1.00 1.00 1.00

The d o lla r deprec ia tes and the yen app rec ia tes w ith respect to the French

franc* For the same p e r io d , domestic p r ic e indexes and domestic p roduction

indexes are shown in Table 4.5

53

Table 4.5 Indexes o f Domestic P rices (DP).

and In d u s t r ia l P roducti on (IP )

France Japan U. S. A.

IP DP IP DP IP DP ;

1973 100 82 105 95 95 92

1974 110 90 115 97 105 95

1975 100 100 100 100 100 100

J Let us compute FDEM, the fo re ig n demand index fo r the product- From

Table 4 .3 , the base year shares o f USA and Japan in French exports are

k found to .b e :

J . USA JAPAN

I ■ .66 -.33

Using these shares as w e igh ts , the aggregate fo re ig n demand index is found

\ to be:

1973 105 x .66 + 95 x .33 = 100.65

1974 • 115 x .66 + 105 x .33 = 110.55

1975 100 x .66 + 100 x .33 = 100.00

Now, le t us tu rn to the fo re ig n p r ic e in dex . The domestic p r ic e indexes

are f i r s t co rre c ted fo r the f lu c tu a t io n s o f the exchange ra te s .

Table 4 .6 Corrected N a tiona l P rice Indexes

VJapan U.S.A.

1973 .85 x 95 = 80.75 1.10 x 92 = 101.20

. * 1974 .92 x 97 = 89.29 1.05 x 95 = 99.75

1975 100.00 100.00

■-U The aggregate p r ic e index o f com pe tition faced by French exports is

f in a l ly obta ined by w e igh ting these 2 p r ic e indexes by the base yearr •

h shares:v.i

54

1973 66 x 80-75 + .33 x 101 .2 = 86.69

1974 66 x 89.24 + .33 x 99.75 = 91.81

1975 66 x 100.0 + .33 x 100.00 = 100.0

The lag s tru c tu re fo r PRE was not es tim a ted , but se lec ted from fo u r

candidates a f te r t r i a l runs. The fo u r s tru c tu re s te s te d were:

W1 = .05 .15 .30 .30 .15 .05

W2 = .10 .15 .25 .25 .15 .10

W3 = .166 .166 .166 .166 .166 .166

U4 = .4 .3 .2 .1 .0 .0

W2 gave the h ighest number o f best r e s u lts , but was by no means a c le a r-c u t

winner.

Equation type C4.173 gave g e n e ra lly good re s u lts , however,

an a lte rn a te fo rm u la tio n was used:

In (EXPS* ) = a + b t + c PREt C4.183i i i i i

This equation was used when the re g u la r- ty p e equation was y ie ld in g

unacceptable re s u lts , such as a nega tive c o e f f ic ie n t fo r domestic demand,

or a p r ic e e la s t ic i t y too fa r from our a p r io r i e s tim a te .

This leads us to tu rn to the e s tim a tio n method fo r equations o f the

f i r s t type . The c r i t i c a l p o in t is obv ious ly the e s tim a tio n o f the p r ic e

e la s t ic i t y . An unconstra ined e s tim a tio n may g ive e r r a t ic values fo r l . B

Moreover, the f i t is found to be ra th e r in s e n s it iv e to the va lue o f I . .

One fe e ls th e re fo re ju s t i f i e d to s p e c ify an a p r io r i value fo r l ^

I t , and co n s tra in the e s tim a tio n so th a t the estim ated I . , w i l l

be close to I * . The procedure goes as fo llo w s : an a p r io r i I *

is p icked , and a number o f regressions are run fo r I . va ry ing step by -

step from C l* - a) to ( I * + a ) . We s e le c t the l^ t ^a t g^ves

55

the highest value fo r

R2 - .2 I .

*Lr -

ir -1

2 2where R is the R o f the reg ress ion equation

i

EXPSi , = a. - b . FDEM* C4.193

Results are l is te d in Appendix Table 4 . The column labe led RBARSQ

2shows R fo r the se lec ted I .I . i

For most o f the sec to rs good re s u lts are ob ta ined. We used the

standard equation fo r 43 sec to rs and the lin e a r form fo r 25 se c to rs . Due

to the w orld -w ide recess io n , exports o f many products dropped in 1975.

Equations fo r secto r 19, G lass, and 5 1 ,Yarn and Thread, fo r example, catch

very w e ll t h is drop. Data fo r these two sectors are d isp layed in Table

4 .7 . L inear type equations are chosen fo r products the exports o f which do

not seem to respond to v a r ia t io n s in fo re ig n demand. T yp ica l o f such

sectors is secto r 32, E le c t r ic Equipment,the exports o f which have been

keeping a smooth upward tren d through the 1975 recess ion . Data fo r th is

sector are d isp layed in Table 4 .8 .

U n fo rtu n a te ly , we were not ab le to get acceptable re s u lts fo r a few

sectors :

FRENCH EXPORT FQUATIONS

EXPuR IS , COUh .FF EXPoRIS, tOUH.FF USE FUHtlGN PH ICE JJSt FORe I gH PRICEfo reig n demand foreign demandDOKESTIl DEFLATOR

Relative prucRELATlVfc P R I“ A PRIORI £LAPlti i.,:ss Plbi 1=1:88EuUaTIOn

ORSIC1TY

19S9 307. *212. .4 34<g?!s92 .8.516

r .U i1 .015

1 9 6 u3b5.

277b..4 j7

1.0U0 49 .8

100 .0 .523

1.0U0 1. lbo 1. 0U0

196136to.

3399..44bAi i 19 5 2 .0 102.4

.551 1.143 1.161

,996

1962415.

1963168.

1964530.

1965630.

1966656.

1967 661 .

1968717.

1969886.

1970t i i e .

19711229.

19721167.

19731784.

19712336.

.*•51 .455 .468 .475 .478 . 4 8 8 .490 .519 .59P .652 .656 .669 . 8575*1.6 5 7 .9 62.1 6 5 .0 6 8 .9 7 0 .2 75 .2 82.1 85 .5 87 .7 93 .1 100.3 9 9 .9.553 .584 .588 .596 .603 .611 .635 .633 .635 .670 .696 .723 .806

1.168 1.184 1.198 1.212 1.222 1 .2 22 1.228 1.224 1 . 2 0 6 1.171 1.118 1.071 1 .030-2 .0 0 FOREIGN PRICE WEIGHTS IPAST TO CURRENT) .10

= -2 .0 0 UTIL = .715 RBARbQ = .916 A= -1 5 9 3 .2= -2 .0 u UTIL = .87*1 HBAR50 = .97$ A= -1 3 9 8 .0

“ 00 UTiL = .988 RUARSQ s .986 A= -1 1 5 5 .900 UTIL = .060 RUARSQ = .960 A= -8 5 7 .4

.15 .25 .25 15 .10

IH = : I -5 81

by60blJ*26364 fcb 66 67 60 69

*

74

f t

UtiMdqb94*11002

10911^491?1515U11^4^ip?M30Q6

A=(

b96.698.665.7 b l .601.902.10b6.

io « e .1002.1130.1399.I?uO.1635.2100.2467.2699.\ l % \2974.

-1 1 5 b .9 -1 0 .4 1 ♦

H= 40.4328 ( 28 .4925)

ELASTICITY= -2 .0 0 ROARSq= RHO = .93 DEMAND ELASTICITY =

41.2757 UN*DJ RBARSQr40.9579 UN^DJ RfiARSQs40.4328 IINADJ noARgGr39.6527 -----------------“ **"

.9880 1.39 +

UNAOJ R|).ARSgs

.9156

.9640

.9703

.9206

+ ♦* +t ik e eq u atio n

♦25 .+ H(TIKE)LN(EXPGRTS) = A

2 VAr SSr = .14747554+00 RUARSQ REGREbSiON COEFFICIENTS 7.874532

J 227.097879)

♦ ♦50 75♦ C(PRICE)

♦100

♦125

♦150

4175

♦POO

DURhlN uATSOn = 1.19112]PREUICTi On 569<

2629,ACTUAL

RESIDUALS

596. 2402 <

26,-227 .

t>26*62893.3

609 .43 1 1 ) 3 . 6

697 .7 665 .1 2774.7 2973.7

71 .1 -2 4 .3 -1 1 0 .6 -2 0 9 .9

RHO = 758.6

750.8

- 7 .8

(

.9709 RSQ .095619

g 4 .510087)

918 .5

902 .1

-1 6 .4

.9725

.404 83*1.7

800 .9

-3 3 . A

<

1010.6

1055.9

4 5 .3

1112.1 1223.6 1346.*!

J 087.6 1082.0 1130*3

-2 4 .5 -1 4 1 .6 -2 1 6 .1

„ 2 S - .13*»07832*u0 RUARSoRLGWESbiON COEFFICIENTS b . 364322

( 21 .509709) 1.27301b

.9719 RSQ =

DUHUIN ^AlSO|j =PREUICTi On bU9.7

2703.16*15.

2981.7 0 b . H

3271.7ACTUAL

r e s id u a l s

596.22402 .5

6 .b-3 0 0 .6

097 .7 6 tib . 1 2774 .7 2973 .7

b l . 9 -4 0 .7 -2 0 7 .0 -2 9 8 .0

RHO =770.7

750.8

-1 9 .9

VAm SSR =RLOHESStON COEFFICIENTS

.7 3 1 3 1 2 1 9 -u l RUARSQ .015502

( .535594)

u , : s m

838.2 912 .2

800 .9 902.1

-3 7 .3 -1 0 .1

.5735 RSQ -.0 1 3 7 9 2

-5 .0 2 0 2 1 5 )

(.9750-.*1552*17

-1.264*111) (

993 .0 1002.8 1186.0 129S.9

1055.9 1087.6 1082.0 1130.3

6 2 .9 4 .7 -1 0 4 .0 -1 6 b .5

= .5972 (

1*181.5 1630.2 1793.7 1973.7

1399.0 1760.0 1 834 .B 2108 .5

-8 2 .5 129 .fl 4 1 .0 134.8

1422.4 1570.5 174*.1 1962.1

1399.0 1760.0 1A34.A 2108 .5

-2 3 .4 1P9.4 8 6 .7 146.4

- ♦225

2 1 7 1 .P 2389.7

2467.3 2899.4

295 .5 509 .7

2195 .8 2451.5

2467 .3 2099.4

?71.4 447 .9

Table 4.7

Export Equation

for Sector

19 -

Glass

I

lil» I Lb LT FIURLS ARTlFICAtLS L i

EXPORTS, COUr .FFEXlORTS, cOUH.FF USE FUKtl&N PRICE USE FOhel&M PHICt FOfillloN UtMAND FOREIGN UtKAhU

1959171.1145.• qSb .865 68*0 93 .7

1.022 >984RJKHiS U^bSlSRRELa I lVh PRlCE|

11} 1:1:88 uvib 1ESI = -1 .0 0 UTIL =

R E LA llV t PHjCtS 1 .8bb LATIVfc PRICES 1.0*16 PK luR i ELASTICITY =URI LUA - *00 - -t*jO

H EL b = - i « U U

EuUaTIOn

1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967243. 202. 265. 327. 391. 416..463 .522 .532 .515 .517 .51377 .2 8 1 .5 83 .6 8 3 .2 8 6 .2 83 .9

1.067 1.045 1 .043 .972 .957 .9271.851 1 .848 1 .860 1.834 1.784 1.731

-llO O 'FO R ElG N 'pR lC E WEIGHTS {PAST TO CURRENT) .10 .15Of

FRENCH EXPORT EQUATIONS

19bU197.

1492..512

*)S?8i?oi“l:g ij§l.Oof

1961215.

1511..515

MJii98 .2

1 .0 6 01.0081.846

.966

• 80s .96i

WEIGHTS CPAST TO CURRENT) .10 .15RBARSO = .780 A= -2 8 0 4 .7 B=liflARSQ = .902 A= -2 8 3 3 .6 B=RBARSQ = .967 A= -2 8 0 8 .2 B=

-2 8 0 8 .2-1 0 .4 )♦

B= 42.0744 ELASTICITY= -1 .0 0 RBARSq= < 14.0305) RHO = .74 DEMANO ELASTICITY =

1969 1970 1971 519. 673. 715. U57.

.519 .548 .619 ,6419(1,3 9 6 .3 96 .3 98 .8.890 .907 .867 .835

1.660 1.612 1.540 1.455.25 .25 .15 .10

93:2333 W fiB d « S 8i g42.0744 UNApJ RBARSGr.96663 .12♦ ♦ +

L499.

J972 1973 1974877 . 1134. 1376..668 .837 1.035

103 .8 102.7 99 .1.803 .854 1.202

1.347 1 .223 1.128

: * | S 9.9159

f « E EQUATION LN(EXPCRTS) =+ +25 50

A + B(TIKE) + C(PRICE)♦ ♦75 100

♦125 150

4-175 200

♦?25

a VAr SSr = .45362794+00 REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS 7 .

( 119.UURUlM * AISON = .696605

HBARSq 250763 229074)

RHO =

= .9576 RSQ .138084

< 20 .181527) .652

= .9599

(

PREDICTION 15*1.7 177.6 203 .9 1409*2 lt>17*8 1857.4

234.1 268 .7 308 .5 354 .2 406.7 466.9 536*0 615.4 706 .5 811.1 931 .2 1069.1 1227.4

ACTUAL 167.0 194*2 202 .3 1162.2 1492.0 1499.2

227 .9 193*2 254 .0 336.7 408.3 448.7 583.4 741 .5 824 .5 1026.0 1092.4 1328.4 1144.5

RLSlDUALS 12 .3 16 .7 - 1 .6 -2 4 7 .U -1 2 5 *8 -3 5 8 .2

-6 .2 -7 5 .5 -5 4 .5 -1 7 .6 1 .6 -1 8 .2 47*3 126.1 1 1 8 .0 214.9 161.2 259 .3 - * 2 .9

3 V/}r SSR = .44024969+1)0 RtGRESSiON COEFFICIENTS 6 .

( l b .OURtilN «AiSON = .719264

RUARSq 950302 966530)

RHO =

= .9563 RSQ .152535

( 6 .978072) • b40

= .9611.259101

1 .697285) (

PREUlCTlON 147.4 171.2 198.9 1360.5 1574.9 1810.1

232.1 270 .1 315 .5 365.1 419.8 182.3 551*5 634.4 725.3 826.4 936.1 1055.9 1200.0

AC(UAL 167.0 194*2 202 .3 1162.2 1492*0 1499.2

227 .9 193*2 2 5 4 .u 336.7 408.3 448 .7 583*4 741.5 824 .5 1026.0 1092.4 1?P«.4 1144.5

RESlOUAcS 19*6 2 3 .U 3 .4 - 2 0 6 * 3 -8 2 *9 -3 1 0 .9

- ‘4*2 -7 6 *9 - 6 1 .b -2 8 .5 -1 1 .5 -3 3 .6 31*8 107.1 99 . 2 199.6 156.3 ?7? .6 - 5 * . 5

2 War SSr = .1464439^»u0regression c o e f f ic ie n t s

(UUHhlh „A|SOn - .Uub»>/7

RUAHSq 017352 4<c365H)

RHO -

= .9012 RS(» -.0 4 9 9 5 2

( -12*849401)• 59 7

r .9066 <

«to

I tK ll .L LLtCTKltiUL

EXPuRlS, COUk .FF

f r e n c h e x p o r t e q u a t i o n s

EXPoRIS. COUR.FF Dbk FORfclfaN PRICE

OHtleN PRICE ' UtMANU____ UtMANUOOKESTIc ULfLATOK domes l i e uei-lator HtL A T IV t PRICESRELATIVE . PRIORI ELAS

Lj-S = .DO ELii PELS =-<d*UU PELS = -3 .00Equation

19b9 1900 1961 1962512. 652 . 755. 750.

6739. 0220. 9499..516 .522 .523.910 l.OuO l . l t i i f40*0 5 2 .5 5*1.595*6 100 .0 106.6 •480 .502 >524.927 1 .000 1.079 .907 .9U9 .913.909 l.OuO .907

IC ITY = -3 .0 0 FOREIGN p K lC E hf f l 13:8 BUt I :|33 K8*ESI = -3 .0 0 UTIL = .73$ HBAR_ ~ ur '

1963022.1964909.

19651045,

19661145.

19671313.

I960 1969 1970 1971 1446. 185(1. 2653. 3013.

1972 1973 1974 3 3 *2 . 3896. 5568.

.522 .525 .524 .522 .524 .525 .520 .554 • 655 • 701 .691 .672 .81657 .1 6 0 .3 64 .7 (69.3 73 .8 74 .7 79 .9 8 8 .5 9 3 .0 9 3 .9 9 8 .6 ; 106.1 105.3.541 .540 .561 .576 .592 • 613 .587 .616 .667 . 664 .681 .748 .886.927 .945 • 960 .990 1.015 1.042 1.063 1.08Q 1.076 1.050 1.015 .987 .980

0& S I|8 TI ,p ? n , T0 cuS?enT4 2o2 :1 ° » .U 3 gU« | e=RIJARSO = .784 A= -5 3 6 1 .7 B = l!2 .2 6 5 3 UMDJ Rl]ARSG=

15 10

EST = -3 .0 0 1L = .a i i Rbar ;;q = ;q = A= -5 5 1 0 .6

A= -5 6 5 0 .2B=0=ii2.2653

i4 .2 0 8 716.2753

UNADJ PDANSQs UNAOJ. PBAR5Q=

.7541

.7843

A=(

b9 -g 2 .4 b fc>U 6qS,41 m : w02b l 8 *7 .5 6 1441.7662 124U.34 I4 0 { .3 §63 1614.66 1522.5264 20t,7 .49 1 619 .3b65 24 /U .03 1014.7166 <*006.35 193b.Ob 6 / 2 t>u l.30 2140.0b 60 3026.68 2461.0469 3 6 /0 .b 2 3004.4b70 4 ^ 0 .3 0 3970.1071 45b0.29 4536.4072 b5fa l.44 4079.90 7 j 6954.60 5210.0b 74 700^.61 6203.93 7b 5 6 .i9 .o I 7267.90 7fa 5977.29 0219.54 77 7 0 l6 .? 0 0044.21

-5 6 5 0 .2-5 .6 )♦

{A. i ^

B= 116.2753 ELASTIC ITY- -3 .0 0 RBARSq= ( 9 .4 4 9 5 ) RHO = .73 HEMAND ELASTICITY =

.81771.04

****TIKt EOLATION LN(EXPORTS) = A*■25. .♦ B(TIME)

2 VAh SSr = .19705061+00 KUARSq REGRESSiON COEFFICIENTS 0.021230

( 219.634310) OURUIN wA1SON = .427903 HHO =PREURTiON 966 .6 1091.7 1233.0 1392.6

6776 .6 7U53.0 0644.4

(

♦ + 50 - 75♦ C(PRICE).9758 RSQ =

.121715 26 .935636) <

♦100 ♦125

♦150

+175

♦200

.9771

.7861572.9 1776.5 2006.4 2266.1 2559.4 289Q.6

ACTUAL

RESioUAlS

1040.4 1 2 9 0 .U 1441.8 1401.3 7260.0 8219.5 8044 .2

01.0491.3

206 .3565 .0

200 .7199.8

1522.5 1619.3 1814.7 1935.1 2140.1 2461.8

8 .7 - 5 0 .4 - 1 5 7 .1 -1 9 1 .7 -3 3 1 .0 -4 2 8 .8

3264.8 3687.4 4164.6 4703 .6

3004.4 3978.1 4536.*5 4080.0

-2 6 0 .3 290 .7 371.9 176.3

3 VAR SSr = .13433051+00 RUARSQ re g re s s io n c o e f f ic ie n t s 1 0 .1 4 7 5 8 2

< 20.991247) OUKIJIN tv A") SON = .6031b3PREUKT|Om 1C13.7 1150.5 1290.3

7134.3 7999.4 9251.7ACTUAL

residuals

1040.4 1290.0 1441.8 7260.0 0 ^19 .5 0044.2

34,133,

1 4 7 .b 143.4 220.1 -4 0 7 .4

2 (/A|, SSk = .9 1 5 0 2 9 4 6 -n l HLORLbSiUN COEFFICUNTS

RHO = 1452.5

1401.3

-5 1 .1

KUARSq .030439 .939773)

= .9825 RSQ .120555

( 20 .109878) .650

.9845-1 .289010-2 .7 5 0 5 2 7 )

1615

1522

-9 2 .7 -1 6 4 .0 -154

293?.2 3355.1 3943.6 4692.1

3004.4 3970.1 4536.5 40 fio .o

7 -2 3 5 .6 -2 4 2 .0 -1 7 3 .9 72 .3 6?3 .(j 59? .« lP 7 .f i

2 1703.4 1969.4 2170.7 2302.0 2635.8

5 1619.3 1814.7 1935.1 2140.1 2461.8

♦"225

5312.5 6000.1

5210.1 6283 .9

-1 0 2 .4 283 .9

5531 .6 634P.9

5210.1 6203 .9

-3 2 1 .6 -6 5 .0

= - .0 5 5 6 RSu = -.0 0 0 6 9 7 < -.< 2 6 5 6 1 ) (

.00^0

Export Equation

for Sector

32 -

Electrical

Ecuipment

ZbYLVlCULrUHt

EXPuNIS» (,OUh »FF EXPORTS, COUU.FF USL FuHtlfaN PH ICE USE FU H |lb» PHICE

a t * , # . -DOf'ESIIc DEFLATORn p i* - . ou

FRENCH EXPOHT EQUATIONSI9b9

133.461..<130

96.2 .342

>7(1Hf

TY =FfetS I -:SS m i -:5UPELti = -.bO EuUATlOf

.50 ESI = - .5 0

A=(

196u194.509..*130

‘ s8?§*?Si8

UTIL

1961197.602 ,.436

^ is g

196 2 196.. 4 4 1

66 . 9 .362 .739

1963178.• 4 MB71.4.376.747

1964196..46170 .9.386.754

478. fl 7 .5 )

b9

I *a6a67£3W?2

1

4bb. 4fab . 40b. 4a7. 4b7.58?:4 y8 . 4b U* 4bU. 4bU. 409. 4b9. 490.490. 49U. 49U.491. 491.

308.558.553.S H :bU9. 484. 497. 4b 1. 430. 4o9« 4b4. 4b ti. 469. 491. 494* 476. 509. 562.

= - .6 7 9B=

<♦

RBARSQ = - .6 7 9.1175 E LA S T IC m = .00 RBARSq= - .1512 ) RHO = .52 DEMANO ELASTICITY =

1965108.1966

191.1967

173.1968164.

1969 202,

1970261.

1971285.

1972297.

1973401.

.470 .493 • 491 .519 .580 .615 . 663 .698 .77971.2 75.9 75.9 80.1 flo .e 8 *.3 90.7 9 J • 1 93.7.389 .384 .384 .382 .431 •575 .610 .632 • 818..760 .759 .753 .737 .719 .721 .733 .769 .818

CURRENT) .10 A- 478.8 A= 392.5 A= 312.7

.15B=13=B=

i f 175 .0454 1.5158

.25 .15 .10UN*0'J PBARSQ= - unadj RBARSCs un ad j rbarsg=

.0574

.0041

.0995.0574

. 02♦

* * + ♦Tl^t tQijAlION 2 VA,< SSr =

RtOKESSiON COEFFICIENTS

LN(EXPORTS) = A f 5..153U5006+00 RBARSCJ

DOKltln *ArbOfj = P H tU lC liU h 401

(

actual

RE^IUUAl S

.74 ti9 .9308.4475 .6-9 3 .3-1 4 .2

1.276041 •<(32*2 402 .7

6.194300 174.900789)

RHO =

<490*5558.3509.4

76<19.

491 .0553 .0 5t>2.2

70 .371.2

483 .2

540 .5

5 7 .3

3 VA|< SSR = .I24530bto*u0 RBARSu REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS i i . 640996

( 19.657501) 1.594239OURUIN aATSON =

PHEUIC1iOW

ACTUAL

498,509.388.475.

495.3 522.9bb0.3509.4

b 2 .9-1 3 .4

RE IDUAlS - 110.0 -3 3 .6

2 V'Ah SS|< = HtGREbi.iUN COLFFICILNTS

492.7530.1b b 3 .0 5b2.2

60 .332 .2

{<•10 = 490 .7

540. b

4 9 .fl

21290267*00 MJAHSu =

DUKHIh ..AlbCn =(

■ 911346

. 0 0 1 2 2 0 1 . 6 4 « | 6 5 l )

KHO =

+50

E) + C(PRICE)•f75 100

♦125

♦150

♦175 200

■»225

-.0544 RSQ .001067 .267832)

.362

= .0042 <

483.7 484.2 484.7 485.3 485.8 486*3 486.8 487.3 487.9 488. 4 1*80.9 489.4

474.2 509.1 484.0 497.Q 450.5 430.0 468.9 453.5 467.8 469.1 490.9 494.3

-9 .6 24.9 - . 7 11.8 -35 .3 -56 .3 -17 .9 -33 .f l -20 .1 -19 .3 2.0 4 .9

.0932 RSQ -.007121

-1.269754) .203

= .1940,6?5455

( 1.940887) (

<189.5 488.2 486.6 482.9 477.6 469.6 461.1 45«.3 458.? 465.7 476.7 493.0

474.2 509.1 484.0 497.0 450.5 430.0 468.9 453.5 467.8 469.1 490.9 494.3

-1 5 .3 20.9 -2 .6 14.1 -27 .1 -39 .5 7,8 -4 .7 9. ? 3.4 14.2 1 .4

.5270 RSd .021539

4.595190)= .fib'K) <

Ut00• 544

1974590..90395.6

1.193.883

IV)

Ino*1t9(Aft~fX

Table 4.9

Export Equation

fop S

ector

•4

m i'K iU . DE L'AClER1959

< i s ; . couh*FF

FRENCH EXPORT EQUATIONS

d l t : .369 920

M I: EuuK:use fo lit it i ll phlet FOREIGN DtMANU FOREIGN DtMANU 92.DOKtSJIc ULFLATOH »35t> .IBStlte PftfcS0M 1:833 i:8S8 n i i l i f t a iS f f s i i t =97b - liW fl

48 .2 !.?

i960877.

492U.»3U2l.OUO54.71U0.0.372

1961a9 i*5179..3931.026i>6.297 .3.376.985

1.0041.032

1962638..39656.1.305

1.005

1963650..4065 9 .0.4l2

1 .0 1 0

1964695..4436 6 .5.420

1.010

uoPELS =-1loo PELS = - i. UO PELS =-4.00EuliATlOh

O r J i f Vifw i |U j£Y = -2 .0 0 FOREIGN PRICE WEIGHTS (PAST TO

i l l i:l:8o Hilt I :3§1 M l :SpEST = -2 .0 0 U U L = .b&3 RBARSQ = .553

[54 IJBARSQ = .55*1ESI = -2 .0 0 ESI = -2 .0 0

U U LUTILUTIL RBARSQ = .5*15

1965824.

1966778.

1967867.

1968902.

1969 1970 1170. 1635.

19711526.

19721723.

1973 2508.

19744009.

.447 .444 • 431 .415 .459 .676 .665 .595 .6 *8 .95570 .5 72 .3 75 .2 8 3 .6 9 2 .3 95 .7 9 3 .3 98 .6 106.7 111.4.427 .427 .429 .451 .473 .559 .574 .580 .641 .871

1.013 1.009 1*007 1.019 1.032 1.036 t.0 2 4 .991 .962 .953CURRENT) .10

A= -9 0 8 .4 A= “ 812 .5 A= -7 2 2 .6 A= -6 3 8 .6 A= -5 6 0 .3

.15r=B=U

.25 .2 5 .15 .10 46.5538 UMOJ BDARSG= 45.4028 UNADJ PDARSg= 44.3488 UNADJ R0ARSG= 43.3896 IJNAQJ PfiARSG= 42.5234 UNADJ PBARSG=

.5248

.5172

.5046

.4872

.4654

5960 61 026*46b6fa676at>9

?*53

V\

1^«9 1 756 {7?U 1850 2183 23m ^30

43*74&4U 3^b4

4i l )

A = (

2182. 2365. 212H. 1658. 1 5 /7 . It,ii4 * 1930. 1823. 2022. 1999. 2 4 /5 . 2924. 2660. 2968. 3915. 4t>05. 4920. 49<i8. 5258.

-7 2 2 .6- . 9 )♦

44.3488 ELASTICITY= -2 .0 0 RBARSqs 4 .3 9 7 0 ) RHO = .87 DEMANO ELASTICITY =

TIKE LQ»jATIOn LN(EXPCiHTS) = A +5U(T1KE)

.55311.20♦

VA. SS|< = 797288J9+U0 RBARSQ 8.298282

102.926878) hHO =

b820

♦ ♦50 „ 75 ♦ C(PRICE).7113 KSQ =

.061078 33422) (

4125

♦150

♦175 200

RE&HESSi On c o e f f ic ie n t s

DURUlN mATSOn * . 3 5 9 6 3 !PREDICTlON 1511.8 lb 0 7 *0 1708.2 1815.8 1930.1 2051 .7 2180.

,7273

4017.0 4270-0 4538.9ACTUAL

RtSlUUALS

2181.4920.

669.903.

5 2355.2 2 1 *7 .6 1658.2 1577.5 1654.0 1930. -3 4SJ28.4 5258.0

/4 8 .2b58.4

419.4 -1 5 7 .6 -3 5 2 .6 -3 9 7 .7 -250. 719.1

2318.3 2464.3 2619.5

1823.0 2021.9 1990.5

-4 9 5 .3 -4 4 2 .4 -6 2 1 .0

2784.5 2959.9 3146.3 3344.4

2475.3 2923 .fi 2660.2 2968 .2

-3 0 9 .1 -3 6 .1 -4 6 6 .0 -3 7 6 .2

3 VAh SSr = .67672671+U0 hOARSQ = .7396 RSQ = .7 6 n5 REPRESSi On COLFFltlLNTS 12.091943 .057819 -3.7<i8679n , „ ! 5 .378282) ( 6 .549683) C -1 .6 ^8 3 3 3 )DUKU1I4 feAlSON = .447551 RHO = .776PREDICTS

A C l U A L

r e s io u a l s

1566.3 lu 5 3 .U 1 /5 3 .4 1849.5 1925.6 2037 .9 2130.5 2291.6 2454.0 2481.2 4J94 .0 4234*0 3975.02181 4920

6 1 5 . 2525.6

702»2 693 • 6

374.1 -191, 12U3.0

2503.2 2606.6 2 *99 .1 3472.7

2475.3 2 9 2 3 .fl 2 *6 0 .? 2968 .2

3 -3 4 8 .1 -3 8 3 .8 -2 0 0 .2 -4 6 8 .6 -«»32.9 -4 8 2 .7 t 2 7 .9 3 l 7 . l -23H.H -5 0 4 .4

.5 2455.2 2127 .6 1658.2 1577.5 1654.0 1930.4 1823.0 2021.9 1990.5

.3 4928.4 52b8 .0

♦22*5

3555.1

3914.7

159.7

*11 ?0 . 4

3H14.7

-? 0 5 .7

3779.0

4604.8

825 .9

4502.4

4604.8

102.4

2 VA,* SSR =REOKLbSiOfc CoeF F IC Il M S

.8 0 ‘)b 7 9 0 0 -o l RUARSu = - .0 5 8 8 RSQ = .0000-.0 3 0 7 1 0 . 00001,2

Table 4.10

Export Equation

for Sector

14 -

Steel P

roducts

60

2 F orestry 4 Coal

14 S tee l Products 44 Bread and P a s tr ie s

58 C lo th ing

In some cases, we f in d wide v a r ia t io n s in exports w h ile fo re ig n demand and

re la t iv e p rice s move q u ite sm oothly. T yp ica l o f such cases are secto rs 2

and 4* Data fo r secto r 2 are g iven in Table 4 .9 . In another case, some

other fa c to rs are c le a r ly o v e rr id in g the fo re ig n demand and the r e la t iv e

p rice s in the d e te rm ina tio n o f the e xp o rts : fo r S tee l P roducts, fo re ig n

demand drops sharp ly in 1975, and resumes in 1976 a slow grow th. R e la tive

p rice s do not experience major changes, but French exports on ly show a

slowdown in 1976, a f te r a sharp increase in 1975. Data fo r th is sec to r are

d isp layed in Table 4 .1 0 . Table 4.11 shows the exogenous values assigned to

these sec to rs . Of course, such exogenous fo re ca s ts could be re a d ily

changed. '

Table 4.11 Exogenous fo re ca s ts fo r exports

Sector y e a rly growth ra te o f exports1978 1985

2 F ores try 5 .0 -3 .04 Coal 0 .0 -7 .0

14 S tee l Products 4 .0 4 .044 Bread & P a s trie s 32.0 14.058 C lo th ing 11.0 2.0

We have a lso kept ir> the model a few equa tions , a lthough they f i t very

poo rly the da ta . Sectors 15, 55 and 79 have Low RBARSQ. Among equations

o f type 2 , secto rs 3 , 17 and 59 f a l l in to the same ca tegory . For some

se c to rs , poor f i t comes from wide v a r ia t io n s in some period o f t h e ir

h is to ry ^ n e v e r th e le s s we keep the equation because the a c tu a l values seem

back on the trend in 1977. T yp ica l o f th is case is secto r 17, Other

M inera ls . Table 4.12 d is p la y s the data fo r th is s e c to r. For secto rs 55

and 59, exports are undergoing wide v a r ia t io n s , but we s t i l l fe e l th a t the

equations g ive more reasonable p re d ic te d values than any exogenous fo re ca s t

we can th in k o f . Data fo r sec to r 59 are d isp layed in Table 4 .13 . We w i l l

o f course make sure the fo recas ted values fo r these goods s tay reasonable.

Let us now consider how we get the indexes o f fo re ig n demand and

fo re ig n p rices in the years o f fo re c a s t. We draw from two sources to

cons truc t the fo re ig n demand in d e x , in the same way as we d id fo r the

h is to r ic a l da ta . Forecasts o f in d u s t r ia l p rodu c tion fo r the USA are

obtained from the 200-order Inforum model. For the o the r tra d in g p a rtn e rs ,

assumptions on the growth o f in d u s t r ia l p roduc tion in the 13 OECD

categories were made. The base year weights were used to aggregate the 9

indexes in to an aggregate p r ic e in dex .

The fo re ca s t o f the fo re ig n p r ic e index fo r e xp o rts , PFORE, is

performed in two s teps. The c o n tin u a tio n o f sim ple tim e trends is assumed

fo r the r e la t iv e p r ic e o f each p rodu c t. For each p rodu c t, we estim ate the

equation :

In ( PR*) * a + b t C4.203i i i

C oe fficen ts and s ta t is t ic s are l is te d in Appendix Table 5 . To o b ta in

PFORE., we heed to m u lt ip ly the estim ated r e la t iv e p r ic e , PR., by the

index o f domestic p r ic e , P^. P.. was a lso assumed to fo llo w the

past tre n d : fo r each p ro d u c t, we estim ated the equa tion :

In ( P* ) = a + b t C4.213i i i

C o e ff ic ie n ts and s ta t is t ic s are l is te d in Appendix Table 6 . L a te r , we

obtained from the GAMA a fo re c a s t o f the domestic p r ic e s , but the

fo recast o f PFORE was not re v ise d .

62

4.3 The im port equations

The im port equations are very s im ila r to the export equa tions . The

general form is :

PFORI.. is the p r ic e index o f im ports o f product i ; i t is a weighted

average o f fo re ig n p r ic e indexes o f product i . The fo re ig n p r ic e indexes

are the same p rice s as we used in se c tio n 4 .2 to compute the fo re ig n p r ic e

fo r the export equ a tion , but the weights are now the base year share o f

each tra d in g p a rtn e r in French im po rts .

For non-merchandise im p o rts , the US p r ic e indexes were used alone as

fo re ig n p r ic e indexes. Although i t would have been more app ro p ria te to

exp la in non-merchandise im ports by s p e c if ic equa tions, the standard

equations were found to g ive acceptab le re s u lts .

Equation type C4.22U gave in genera l good f i t s . However, two

a lte rn a te fo rm u la tio n s were used. The f i r s t one is s im ila r to the lin e a r

form used a lso fo r e xp o rts :

IMPS1 = ( a. + b. DDt ) (PRIt ) ” Lii i i i i

C4.223

where

IMPSt = s ta n d a rd -p rice im ports o f product i

DDt = domestic demand fo r product i , evaluated a t standard

p r i ce

Qi - EXPSi + IMPSi

17M ut|<AUx UlVERb FRENCH EXPORT EQUATIONS

1959 233*!S i.905 63. (i 96*0 . 4 6 3 .906

r a i i s aiifS!ci.»l sssPM:! =-*:SSp lu s = -2 »uo p e ls = -J.uO

EXPCRIS, COUr .FF EXPCRtS, CO^H.FF USE FoRtlGN PRICE USE FORtloN PRICEf o u l itfN demandFOREIGN UbMANU D O t'tSU c LiEpLATOHdo w eS i c u e Fl aHELATlWt PRICEr e l a i I ve p r ic e

OR

19bU 303. S5U. .371 1.000 Ob. 0 1U0.0 .4b9

l.OyO 1.3S3 I.OoO

19b l346.650..362

* * W.“ S d} :S b l1.006

1962 1963316. 357..390 • 40387.3 87.8.501 .527

1.351 1.355

196*1393..4249 1 .6.550

1.361

196538**.. M t* 3

9 1 .7.568

1.367

1966*133,

19671 9 5 ,

.458 .1(63 9 0 .0 09 .7 .583 .604

1.369 1.368 .15____ -3 .0 0 FOREIGN PRICE ViElGHlS IPAST TO CURRENT) .10

ESI = -3 .0 0 UTIL = ~ .2 0 l RPARSQ = A= 915.7ESI = -3 l8 8 UTIL = ; RlJARSQ = - i * 6 ? 0 A= §4^317ESI = -3 .0 0 UTIL = -8 .6 3 6 RlJARSQ = -8 .6 3 6 A=

I960 1969 1970 197J*189. 3*15. 343. MO?..478 .532 .634 .6289 2 .8 95 .J 100.3 103.5■ 6<|6 «6ii| .552 .562

1.373 1.362 1 *3 1** 1.2M1*25_ .25 .15 .10

>366.3U=B==-15.3823 uRaE RBAR§8==-30.5801 IJNAOJ HB/»H§0=

-53 .3 0 5 8 ------- “unadj R0ARSQ=EuUATiOrM

~ 5 9to62 o3 64 66 6fa 67

5

6hU.677.6 7 3 .671. 6 q 9 * 659. 6 b6 . bb3* 6(,4 * 6«j5. b»*9. 634* 6 2 b. 6 0. 632. 6 3 6 .5 4 1 • £3b* 6 *3*

A=i

b03.646.714.b 3 l .677.m :74*1. 619. 756. b b l . 6 2 | . 71M.b U 6 !bbQ.b45.5b6.610.

915.73 .4 )

B= -2 .0 0 7 1 ( - .9 9 4 4 )

♦ ♦

e l a s t i c i t y : . 0 0 rq a rso =RHO = .98 DEMAND ELASTICITY =

* + *♦TIKE EQUATION

a vam s s r =ln c e x p c r ts ) =

25A ♦ O(TIME)

♦ + 50 75♦ CCPRICEI

1972346..619

1 0 1 .6.609

1.137

-.0006 . 2 ? 8 3 .3892 .4413

regression c o e f f ic ie n t s

DURUIN ttATSON = 1.267721

.262512H6+U0 RUARSG = - .0 1 8 5 t^SQ = .03816.441839

139.246151) RHO =

-.0 0 4 2 7 1 C -.8 2 0 5 7 7 ) .366 (

PRLu IC TjOn

AC 1 UAL

RESiUUAlS

b71 .96 27 . 6

t>03.3615 .2

—Ib6.b -1 2 .4

069.1624 .9646 .3558 .3- 2 2 * 6 - 6 6 * 6

6 6 6 .2622 .2714.1610 .2

4 7 .9- 1 2 .0

663*4

631 .5

-3 1 .9

660 .6

676 .7

16.1

657 .7

713.3

55 .6

654 .9

677 .2

22 .2

652.2

743.7

91 .5

DURUlli aA|S0N = 1.602J421L> • 6223^1)

RHO =

.148? RS(J .011745

1 .299426) .199

.2435.6»6100

2.084132)

PHtUlCTiOi,

ACTUAL

RESi UUAlS

6<f5*0592.2503 .3 615.2

-1 2 1 .723 .0

631.6596*6646*3b li0 .3

14.5 -4 0 . J

636 .9606 .9714.1610 .2

75.1 1 .3

646 .3 655 .6

631 .5 676.7

666. 1

713.3

676 .6 685.6

677 .2 743.7

- 1 4 . tl 2 1 . 0 47 .2 56.1

rluhEjSi On colffililnts• 2113/060*110 kUARSq =

C-.0 6 7 2 7 0

- 1 .7V355o>.5563 R5C -.0 2 2 7 6 3

( -4 .6 7 3 7 7 6 )

, 5 6 ? ‘J

1973399..656,

101.1. 6 8 0

1 .062

♦125

+150 ♦

175 200♦ *

225

649.4 646*6 643.0 641.1 638.4 635.7 632.9 630.2

819.0 755.9 561.2 620.8 714.0 567.4 586.2 659.6

169.6 109.3 -82 .6 -20 .3 75 . -68 .3 -46 .7 29.3

693.4 703*6 706.7 694.1 665 ■ 7 627.5 602.8 587.7

819.0 755*9 561.2 620.fl 714.0 567.4 586.? 65*?.6

125.6 52*3 -1 4 5 .4 J 73 .3 4H. ^ -6 0 . i -1 6 .6 7 1 .9

1974526.

1 .0119 9 .5.79?

1.007

O'U)

TabLe 4.12

Export Equation

for Sector

17 -

Otner M

inerals

Table

4.1

3 Ex

port

Equa

tion

for

Sect

or

59 -

Wood

Pro

duct

s

L>U UOlb

b X i ' C K I S , t U ^ K . F F t X l ' O K 1S , t O U R . F F USt i-OHtlfcN Pit iC t Ui»L t-UHfclliN HHlCt FOltLloN UtKANU KO»<t IttN Ut^ANU DO KL&IIt LitfLATOH ..... * > I -----

FRENCH tXFOHT FGUATI^MS

OONl S M c U trL A ]0 |{MLLAHVt PRICESH L L jtllV k PRICESA H t lu K i tL A b T Id lY = -1

‘ - ESI = -1 .OUt s l = -1 .

1959326.

1327. .440 .685 42 .4 92 .6 .32u .926 .710 • 97b

rL lPLLS = -.bO p e ls - — i * ootutiAT Kl|\

- ^OUEsr =-i.oo

19bU 19C1 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 19674Uu. 367. 366. 390. 406, 425. 409. 392.

171.1. 2269.,4 m6 . .462 .471 ,485 .49B .506 .510 .523

1.0U0 1.15347.1 4 9 .9 52 .7 5 6 .0 6 0 .0 62 .4 6 5 .9 6(».2

100 .0 10 2 .0.336 .352 .377 .393 .410 .426 .434 .1*42

1.0U0 1.139.710 .723 .734 .749 .767 .786 .001 .014

l.OyO 1.011 • -.00 FOREIGN pHlcE WEIGH IS (FAST TO CURRENT) .10 .15U11L = .201 RHARSU = .401 A= 287.1 0=U t IL = .310 MIIARSO = .410 A= 9,U U L = .311 RIIARSO = ..311 A= -225 ,

by6 061 t>z LJ 0*1 6 ‘j t>6 6 / ob 6 9

P\ 3 7? 7^

71U6 l b6 7 0

9 70 l O j l l U b « l l i u1 1 4 012.531334l3b«13921466I5ti61 ^ 0I3b9l * » 0 l1 5 1 3

A-(

Iu24~U 9 2 .1099.

970.994.992.990.942.666.657.611.

1009.1194.1442.1791.1559.1433.1713.2 0 1 0.

-1 3 5 .6- . u )■*

!

U= 16.1643( 5 .5811) RHO =

♦ ♦♦

:S HEtASTICITY=

9, : f

196() 405..52373 .9.472.827

.25 12.2686

19694 5 3 .

.561flo .n.558.049.25

1 9 7 0623..66085 .5.618.87415

1971775..71287 .6.649.900

10

- .8 0 RBARSq= ,61 DEMAND ELASTICITY =

♦ ♦

0= 14.8444 B= 16.9646

. 5543 1 .09 ♦

IIN^DJ RfiARSGs UNAOJ RUAHSCr UNADJ RQARSGr

♦ ♦♦♦UUuAIION

«; VAn bSK =

♦25♦ b(TlMEJLMEXPCNTS) = A

.6667973U+U0 kOARSQ Ht.OnLbSiO|* C otFFR Il\N TS 7.206776

UUIU.Ih aAISOn =666.0

1 M 6 3 . U

(

PKtU lC TjUh

AC lliA i-

HtbiUUALi*

.400476924.8

1563.0

9 1.406661) RHO =

(

694*91512.6

955.6. 6 0 0

967 .5

+50♦ C(PRICE) .4407 HSU

II)

♦75 100

♦125

♦150

♦175 200

.4717

1024.2 1191. 1432.5 1713-

156.2-3 1 .3

296 .92 0 0 .6

1099.12009.7

174.3446.6

1020.4

970.1 993 .6 991 .9

14 .5 6 .2 -2 0 .5

3 VAh bbR = .33125467+00 HUARSQ = .7134 KSURtGKtSSiOK C otH FlC ltN TS -<1.496196 -.1 8 1 1 5 0

„ - C . -1 .5 6 1 1 9 0 ) ( -3.M 65039)UUMUu kAISON = 1.055772 RHO = ----- (

PRLulCTlOh

A t I UAL

MLSlUUAtb

1245.2lo 0 5 .0

1U66.1l» 2 l . 3

940.01732.3

697 .3.472697 .0 933 .6 966 .8

.74521 2 . 1 P 6 6 6 44.144049) <

1024.2 l i 9 l . d 1099.1 1432.5 1713.4 2009.7

970.1 993 .6 991 .9 990.1

-2 2 1 .0 123.7 -1 7 2 .5 -1 0 7 .9

159.0277.3

7 2 .9 96 .7 5 6 .0 11.3

902.3

941,9

-4 0 .4

2 VAh z .2 6 0 6 5 1 1 9 -u l I tUARSQ =RLGIcEbSiUu COEFFICIENTS .064397

( 3.591553) UUKHliJ ftAlbON = 1 .13&725 MHO =(

.6641 RSu .020013

11.759356)4 32

.8905

1972 1973 1<?74 975. 1401. 1527..717 .75193 .2 9 9 .9.677 .782.918 .931

,4806•JS7I

.9169 9 .9.979.950

1054.4 1089.6 1125.9 1163.5 1202.3 1242. <1 1283.8 1326.6

990.1 941 ,9 806.4 057 .2 810 ,6 1008.6 1193.9 1441.6

-5 6 .3 -1 4 7 ,7 -2 3 9 .6 -3 0 6 .3 -3 9 1 ,6 -2 3 3 ,8 -0 9 .9 115,0

961 .3 940 .0 1029.4 1163,0 1 3 3 9 .* 1376.5

086.4 0 57 .2 810 ,6 1008,6 1193.9 1441,6

-7 4 ,9 -8 2 ,9 -2 1 8 ,7 -1 5 5 .2 -1 4 5 .« 65 .1

iiiIi\tiirI»jiii)

4 *225

1370.8 1416.5

1791,3 1558,7

420 ,5 142,1

1349,5 1429.0

1791.3 1558.7

441 .8 129.7

65

, tn (IMPS* ) = a + b t + c PRI* C4.231i i i i i

The second one is used fo r two s e c to rs , Crude O il and Non-Ferrous Ores.

For these two s e c to rs , im ports supply more than 80% o f the dom estic demand.

Equation C4.223 would in such case merely regress im ports over im p o rts .

The base year r a t io im ports /dom estic demand was computed. I t is assumed to

be constant over tim e and is used to fo re c a s t im ports .

Equation C4.223 were estim ated by the same procedure as the one

described in se c tio n 2 . Results and s t a t is t ic s are l is te d in Appendix

Table 7 .

F its are g e n e ra lly found to be good. The standard equation was chosen

fo r 49 se c to rs , and the lin e a r form fo r 20. F in a l ly , fo r two secto rs where

im ports p rovide more than 80 % o f the domestic demand, Crude O il and Non-

fe rro u s Ores, the base year r a t io im ports / domestic demand was computed

and used to fo re ca s t im p o rts . In most cases, q u ite wide v a r ia t io n s are

found to be w e ll caught by the standard type equa tion . P a r t ic u la r ly good

examples are sec to r 2 , F o re s try , and secto r 3 , F ishe ry . Data fo r those two

sectors are d isp layed in Table 4 .1 4 . As fo r the e xp o rts , some sec to rs are

found to have l i t t l e s e n s i t iv i t y to the demand term . For example, the

standard type equation f i t t e d to sec to r 14, S tee l P roducts, g ives

ca lcu la te d values th a t a m p lify the a c tu a l v a r ia t io n s . In t h is case, the re

is c le a r ly an independant upward tre n d th a t dampens the v a r ia t io n s

o r ig in a t in g from the dom estic demand. The lin e a r model is best adapted to

such cases. Table 4.15 shows data fo r secto r 14.

Acceptable re s u lts could not be ob ta ined fo r 3 se c to rs . Sector 44,

Bread and P a s tr ie s , shows wide v a r ia t io n s but a c tu a lly has an almost

n e g lig ib le le v e l. One can indeed h a rd ly f in d why French would im port such

products .

W r

fr e n c h im p o h t EQUATIONS

1959 I960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1070 1971 197? 1973 1974I mports cukr 122.

1400.153.

1748.200.

2206.244. 302. 324. 341. 403. 435. 501. 552. 677. 816. 992. 1028. 1230.

USE FORt loN PRICE .331.719

.3361 .000

.3511.324

.359 .378 .400 • 422 .495 .153 • 413 .481 .636 .666 .570 .992 .983

OUTPUT 970. <)663.

l l l u .4152.

1163.4956.

1285. 1364. 1425. 1491. 1633. 1768. 1883. 2006. 2257. 2337. 9P79. 3036. 1566.

OO^LSTIc uEFl a TOR .264.948

.2771.000

.2931.156

.320 .339 .343 .376 .395 .423 .469 .513 .593 .643 .714 .773 .922

DOMESTIC uEMANU 3876.6009.

126d.5992.

4409.5997.

4640. 4811 * 4955, 4762. 4889. 5116. 5292. 5108. 4921. 4901. 5^24 . 4879. 5100.

I mPORT/oOm UEMANU .115.401

.1 ^9

.370.157.350

.177 • 200 .198 .205 .201 .226 .277 .270 .261 .303 .*6 3 .262 .300

RELATlVt PRICES 1 .222 .994

1.2181.000

1.211.969

1.191 1.166 1.143 1*120 1,125 1.120 1.103 1.067 I . n i3 .983 .955 .981 .989

A PRIORI ELASTICITY =PELS = .00 PhLS - -» i;b PELS = -.LOECiUa T 10|4

59bULI62636qfabbo6 /6hby

i

*I *I*J?

2785922«79oOl«b2

llB UfujplJ«!6|4UHl£S>il«i2<i2l*»b12U5l3 y72190*i78«;2i 6

EST = - .5 0 ESr = - .5 0ESI = - .5 0

416.b50.691.U21.9b4.W :

- .5 0 FOREIGN PRICE w eights (PAST TO CURRENT)UTIL = U11L = U IIL =

>722.836.947

RBARSQ = RBARSQ = RBARSQ r

.922

.936

.9*17

10A= -3 3 6 7 .3 A= -3 2 4 4 .8 A= -3 1 1 8 .2

.15B=B=B=

.25

.8838

.25 .15 .10UNADJ ReARSGr IJMOJ RBARSGrunadj rrarsg= .9369

B= .8038 ELASTICITY= - .5 0 RBARSg= .9469 ( 16 .3724) RHO = .50 DEMAND ELASTICITY = 2 .43

91 904,

1159. 14b4 • 1379. 1266. 14B7. 2152. 1200. 1532. 2409. 2217. 2100.

L N U kPOHTS) = A 4 B(TIME) C(PRICE).48313746+00 HUARSQ - .8687 RSU :

:IENIS 7.622552 , *877390j 121.1*54434) ( 10.960039) (

1 .6 2 1 /2 6 RHO = .189

♦125

+150

♦175 200*♦ **

TlN’t tUoATION2 VAh SSR = .48313716+00 RUARSQ = .8687 RSQ = .8760

REGREbSiON COEFFICIENTSDUhiJlN KATbON =PRLUICliON 592 .5 040*1 691 .7 747 .3 807 .4 672.1 912 .6 1018.5 1100.1 l l f lo . 9 1201.6 1388.0 149P .7 1620.3

2C43.8 2208.2 23J5 .9ACTUAL

♦225

1750.7 1891.6

1280.5 1532.0

-170 .? -3 5 9 .6

415 .9 550.3 690 .6 821 .0 964 .2 980 .5 977 .2 984 .0 1158.8 1461.3 1378.7 1286.5 1487.0 2151.6 2408 .6 2217.2 2099.7

RLSlUUALS - 1 1 6 .6 -8 9 .9 - 1 .0 73 .7 156.8 10B.1 34 .6 -3 4 .4 58 .4 275.4 91.1 -1 0 1 .5 “ 1? .7 531.3 365 .0 9 .0 -2U 6 .2

^ 3 SSh = .482891JH+OO RUARStt = .8606 RSvJ = .8761RLbKESSiU^ COEFFICIENTS 7.752573 .075250 -.133941

* b .37862b) ( 3 .034871) ( - .0 'U l2 9 fi) (UURUlN AAlbON = 1.617535 MHO = .101P U t U l C l i O i N b 9 2 . b o 3 9 . b 6<J0 .2 7 1 6 . 0 U U 7 . 0 8 7 2 . 8 9 4 3 . 9 1 0 1 7 . 1 1 ( 197 . 3 1 1 8 5 . 8 1 P 8 4 . 5 1 3 9 5 . 0 l M O . 1 1 6 3 4 . 1 1 7 5 5 . 0 1 8 0 1 . \

Table 4.14.

Import

Equation for

Sector

i ' l l |<V.U. iJ L L • AC ItR FRENCH IMPORT EQUATIONS1959 I960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1^72 1973

IMPORTS CUFR 192.2210.

225.209b.

256.2936.

299. 315. 376. 397. 471. 5*4 3 . 579. 787. 991 . 1090. 1283. 1679.

USE FOREl(jN PRICE .352.936

. 3b3 l.OuO

.3781.018

.383 .392 • 429 .433 .428 .411 . .393 .436 .667 .661 • 582 .679

OUTPUT i6 9 3 .12473.

3047.13382.

3350.12734.

3200. 3421. 3844. 3926. *♦152. 4226. 4523. 5754. 7052. 685?. 7289. 8813.

d o m estic deflator .3561.038

.372l.OoO

.376

.905.385 .412 .420 .427 .427 .429 .451 .473 .559 .574 .560 .641

DOKl S I I c demand 5954.9546.

647 J . 11472.

7478.10664.

7474. 7563. 8399. 8216. 9053. 92q8 . 9558. 11575. 112.14. 11005. 11864 . 12416.

IMPORI/UOM l>emanu • 095 .257

.100 • 2b3

.094

.281.109 • H I .109 .116 .127 .150 .161 .162 .138 .156 .193 .208

RELATIVil PRICES • 956 1*023

.9541 .000

.955

.973.955 .953 .956 .955 .960 .962 .948 .933 .933 .952 .993 1.031

.941

. 871

.204

A PRIORI tLASTIC lTY = -2 .0 0 FOREIGN PRICE WEIGHTS (PAST TO CURRENT) .10 .15 .25A= -1 6 9 3 .3 B= .3452A= -1 7 7 3 .9 B= .3504A= -1 8 5 6 .0 B= .3560

PELS - .UO EST = -2 .0 0 UTIL - .500 RBARSQ = .708 PELS = - i . 0 0 L b | = -2 .0 0 UTIL = .559 RBARSQ = .659 PELS =-£ • 00 EST = -2 .0 0 U U L = .593 RBARSQ = .593

.25 .15 .10UNADJ rbarsg=UNAOJ RBARSG= UNAOJ RBARSG=

.7078 1?.6910

.6 7 lrE«UaTIOn

sybu61fcj64tit666 /6u?U

7.573lb77

2ijb 491 8bJIS!

i fn‘ SWl$36l j l?ij4U42*7b2J}102 121473<>2 20 2049

568. 645. 705. ti 14. 038. 911. 9bb.

1147. 1377. 1534. 10/8. 1548. 1718. 2 *9 5 . 2b78. 2532. 2451. 3019. 2994.

B= .3560 EUASTICITY= -2 .0 0 RBARSq= .5933 ( 6 .1 4 3 5 ) RHO = .80 DEMAND ELASTICITY = 1.96

♦ ♦ ♦ *T iK t EQUATION

o. ♦ t * 25 50 75LNllpPORTS) = A + B(T1ME) ♦ C(PRICE)

♦125

♦150

4175 200

.97472 VAh SSr = .13602318 + 00 RBARSQ = .9732 RSQ =RCGHESSi On COEFFICIENTS 7.919064 .096181

, ( 23 7.105904) ( 25 .595834) (DUKblN aA|SOh = 1.546412 RHO = .227PREDICTION 590 .0 b49 .6 715.2 787 .<4 8 66 .9 954 .4 1050.7 1156.8 1273.6 1402*2 154.1.8 1609.6 1 *71 .2 2060.1

2749 .2 3026*7 3332.3ACTUAL

residuals

560 .3 644 .6 704 .9 814 .3 0 3 7 .T 911 .5 954 .7 1147.1 1377.1 1534.2 1 *7 7 .9 1547 .a l7 l f l . 3 2295 .0 2451.4 3U1U.7 2993 .6- 21.0

-2 9 7 .0-S .0 -1 0 .3 2 6 .9 -2 9 .1 -4 2 .9 -9 6 .0 - 9 .7 103.5 132.0 134.1 -1 5 1 .9 -1 5 ? .9 224 .0 - 8 .0 -3 3 0 .7

» i I I i i » I i i } t

♦ ‘ 225

2 ? f '4 . | 2*497.1

2577 ,8 2532.1

109 .7 35 .0

3 «AR SSr = .13600491+00 RUARSo = .9717 NSG = .9749 R£0|<EbSi0w COEFFICIENTS 7.b53870 .095269 .2*6782

, ( .J.9474Jb) ( 19.632540) ( .310264) (DOhUIU mAJSOW = 1.521796 RHO = .239PULfciiiTlOlM 592.7 u b l.b 716.9 7 fl0 .b 0 6 6 .fl 954 .2 1049.4 1156.0 1P72.1 1394.1 1527.2 1679.6 1«57.1 2065.0 22?4.« 2530.0

FRENCH IMPORT EQUATIONS1959 I960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 I960

imports cufr 401.1002.

o6q. 821.

448.720.

504. ‘•74. 532. 446. 479. 415. 342.

USE FORt lbN PRICE .4171.667

.410 1 .OuO

.423

.740.428 .479 .459 .442 .462 .409 .500

OU1PU1 1223.7179.

24bo.626b.

2230.9612.

1988. 2212. 2666. 2*176. 2008. 2170. 2930.

DOKESHt U tFLAT0u .575.947

.539l.OoO

.5841.041

.500 .b51 .601 .499 .527 .577 .593

DONtSIIc DEMAND 2730.6011.

5272.4133.

3924.6457.

3806. 3337. 4581. 4652. 3049. 4014. 4874.

IWPCRI/dOm UEMANd .433.100

. 3u9

.199.276.151

.317 • 304 .260 .222 .276 .217 .144

RELa T1Vfc PRICES .569.892

.5731.000

.5751.057

.579 • 500 .579 .592 .609 .636 .659

A I’R lUKl ELASTICHY = PELb = .00 ESI = - .5 0 PELS = - .2 5 ESI = - .5 0 PELb = -.b O ESI = - .5 0

- .5 0 FOREIGN PRICE WEIGHTS (PAST TO UTIL = - .2 1 5 RBARSQ s - .0 1 5 UTIL = .011 RBARSQ = .111 UTIL = .202 RBARSQ = .202

CURRENT) .10 A= U 9?»7 A= 975.7 A= 702.9

.158=0=B=

.25

-.0 0 6 7

1969305.

197(1306.

.529 .579

.60}

>2 1 0 ..113

.670

.25

.583

>617.

. 140

.60S

15

197140P.

.600

>631

i25 .

> 126

>690

1972422.

.615

4501.

• 6fi4

4060.

• l*l«*

.715

10RSG= -.0 l*«7

UNADJ »MJARSG= -,0412 UNADJ noAHSG= -.0577

euuat ior^

I i 96u6163fc*»6b

¥

PX27b

1014 • 9hO. 99d. 99b. 999. 9m8. 977. 970. 9q7. 9^4. 913. 90 ti. 893. 8a7. ■ d|)5« B b l* 7l>6. 7bb» 719.

A=(

I lU 3 .1627.1 0 0 5 .1206.1U15.I ld 9 .104(4.1003.

070.702.b 9 l.684.69b.702.922.525.CGI

782.93 .3 )

T l^E EGl ATIGn

2 VAh SSh = - REGRESS i Of • - •

OUHulN aA1SOn = 1.31692

uu* • ♦i n : i

LN(1KPSR . 70633520*UO UUARS(j = .4761 RSQ =COEFFICIENTS 6.520**M5 -.037531

J t i l . 436909) ( -4 .1 6 6 3 0 4 ) (.5052

RHO = .342PREl ICT lOfa 1237.6 1192.0 1140.1 1105.0 1065.1 1025.9 900.1 951.7 916.6 602.9 050.3 0 l9 .o 7QP.P 759.0

678.9 053.9 629.8ACTUAL

residuals

1102.9 1027.b 1004.9 1205.7 1014.5 1188.9 1034.3 1063.1 070.3 702.4 591.2 603.0 695.'* 702.4 601.1 1)21.0 973.0-5 4 .7 435.4 -0 3 .2 -7 7 .6 167.1 344.0

99.9 -5 0 .6 163.1 46.2 111.5 -4 6 .3 -10 (j.4 -259 .2 -135 .2 - 9 l . f i -57 .4

♦?25

731. P

921.6

len .e

197355?.

.599

4575.

.700

449?.

.205

.724

704.0

525.0

■179.0

J VAh SSK = . 5 b 0 9 0 1 4 i ? * i i 0 HUARSu = . 6 1 0 0 RS<J = . 6 5 * 3 r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s 5 . 0 7 1 2 7 0 - . 0 7 6 4 0 2 ■ i . f c ° ! > ? 6 2

, , „ * 07029b) ( -4 .551190) ( 2.614200) (DURblU »sAlbON = 1.005771 RHO = .057P R E U I C U O n 1420.0 l3<b»2 1231.6 1149.2 1066.1 906.9 934.5 090.9 *64.4 031.7 705.6 746.7 706.1 673.0 63?.3 663.0

1974 * 700.

1 .406

4663.

.7-95

3493.

.150

.796

o>oo

Table 4.16

Import

Equation for

Sector 47

- Sugar

69

The es tim a tion o f im ports fo r sec to r 81, Leasing, and 84, E ducationa l

Services, seems, to s u f fe r from inaccuracy in fo re ig n demand and fo re ig n

p r ic e indexes. A s p e c if ic equation is c e r ta in ly needed here. As to the

im ports o f Educational S e rv ices, they seem t o t a l ly random. These 3 sectors

were kept a t th e ir 1978 le v e l. We have kept in the model 2 im ports

equations which have p a r t ic u la r ly low RBARSQ : equations fo r sec to r 5 ,

Coke, and secto r 47, Sugar. As fo r e x p o rts , we d id so because we fe e l l ik e

the equations s t i l l model the tre n d o f the s e r ie s , i f the re is any. Table

4.16 d isp la ys the data fo r sec to r 47.

70

1 Ctopper Almon, A _S ^stem _o f_C onsum pt|pn_functjons^an^Its^E stim a tjon_fo r_

Belgium , Southern Economic J o u rn a l, 1979

2 Young Sun Lee, An_Ecpnornetri.c_Interi ndustr_y_£precasting_Mpdej._pf_the_

French_Economy, Inforum research repo rt no 21, 1977

3 Clopper Almon, ib id .

4 Groupe d 'A nalyse Macroeconomique Appliquee, U n iv e rs ite P a ris -X , N ante rre .

71

Chapter V

Forecast o f the Labor Requirement

by In d u s try .

5.1 P ro d u c tiv ity equations5.2 Forecast o f the Length o f the work week5.3 Forecast o f the t o ta l employment by in d u s try

The labor requirem ent b loc o f the model has the c r i t i c a l purpose o f

checking the consis tency o f our ou tpu t p ro je c t io n s . The labor requirement

corresponding to the fo recas ted le v e l o f ou tpu t is compared w ith the

exogenous p ro je c t io n o f the a v a ila b le labor fo rc e , and the ra te o f

unemployment is computed. On one hand, we have to make sure our fo recasted

output does not have a labor requirem ent exceeding the p ro je c te d a v a ila b le

labor fo rc e . On the o the r hand, the computed unemployment ra te should in

some way r e f le c t the c u r re n tly announced government p o lic y .

The labor requirement is fo recas ted fo r 35 sectors th a t are aggregates

o f the 88 sec to rs o f the I/O ta b le . Appendix Table 1 g ives the t i t l e s o f

these 35 s e c to rs . Most French data on employment app lies on ly to

employees/ but the se lf-em ployed are a lso inc luded in the labor fo rc e .

Data on self-em ploym ent are a v a ila b le in the same c la s s if ic a t io n as the

data on employees, but e x is t on ly fo r the census years , th a t is , every f iv e

years. We th e re fo re proceed in two s teps . The labor requirement fo r

employees only is f i r s t computed. The t o ta l Labor requirement is then

obtained by m u lt ip ly in g the number o f employees by the to ta l labor

force/em ployees r a t io s p e c if ic fo r each one o f the 35 se c to rs . For each o f

the 35 se c to rs , we use the number o f employees (EMP|) ancj -the average

number o f hours worked per week CAHwt) to get an index o f the t o ta l

number o f hours worked (NH?)

NHt = EMP* x AHWt C5.1]i i i

so th a t EMP|, the v a r ia b le to be fo re c a s te d , is equal to

nh^ / ahw| .

NHt and AHWt are fo recas ted se p a ra te ly * There are a t

le as t two reasons to fo re c a s t employment through those two v a r ia b le s ra th e r

than d i r e c t ly .

1. The labor re g u la tio n and the s trong u n io n iz a t io n o f seve ra l secto rs

make i t d i f f i c u l t fo r businesses to a d jus t t h e ir labor fo rce to

d e c lin in g output by la y in g o f f - The a lte rn a t iv e is to reduce the length

o f the work week- As a r e s u lt , the e s tim a tio n o f employment through the

two v a ria b le s g ives a b e t te r f i t , m ain ly in these secto rs w ith

in f le x ib le labo r fo rc e s .

2. The e v o lu tio n o f the number o f hours worked per week has two

d is t in c t iv e p a tte rn s . In most s e c to rs , a steady decrease is observed,

s ta r t in g in 1968. But in sec to rs where government e n te rp r is e s make up a

la rge percentage, the v a r ia b le drops s tepw ise : a la rge drop is fo llo w e d

by s t a b i l i t y fo r 3-4 years. We may want to in trodu ce f ix e s in the

fo re c a s tin g program to respect th a t s top-and-go p a tte rn o f some se c to rs .

A c h a ra c te r is t ic example o f those p a tte rn s is g iven in Table 5 -1 .

5.1 Forecast o f hours worked by p ro d u c t iv ity equa tions.

Three types o f p ro d u c t iv ity equations were te s te d . The f i r s t type is

fo rm ula ted to i l lu s t r a t e te c h n o lo g ic a l change and c y c l ic a l v a r ia t io n s :

72

Table 5.3, Work Week fo r Sector 35 - F ina nc ia l Services

74

In ( NH* / Q t ) = a + b x tim e + c i t n Qt C5.23i i i i i i

where A stands fo r the f i r s t d if fe re n c e , and Q.. a wage-weighted index

o f output in sec to r i . Output is a v a ila b le and is fo recas ted in 88

se c to rs . To aggregate i t in to 35 s e c to rs , we use as weights the employment

in 88 sectors in 1974. The ou tpu t v a r ia b le should show th a t when output

decreases, employment is reduced by a lower percentage, so th a t apparent

labor p ro d u c t iv ity decreases. Conversely, when p roduc tion inc reases ,

employment w i l l be increased , b u t, in the sho rt te rm , less than

p ro p o rt io n a lly ,: so apparent labor p ro d u c t iv ity increases. Hence, we expect

c to be nega tive . I t should however be g re a te r than -1 . The problem w ith

c less than -1 . is seen by adding In GK to both sides o f C5.2U. That

g ive s :

In ( NHt ) = A* + C1 + c ) In qV - c In Q* ” 1 C5.33i i i i i i

where

At = a + b x tim ei i i

I f c < - 1 . , an increase in Q. decreases NH.i i «

We even need to impose fu r th e r r e s t r ic t io n s on c . Let us consider now

3 periods w ith p roduc tion Q°, and q2, work NH°, NH^, NH^.

Equation C5.2!3 g ives

In ( NH1 ) = A1 + c A In Q1 Q1

In ( NH2 ) = A2 + c A In Q2 —2

1

75

a f te r a b i t o f a lgeb ra ,

In Ntf2 = b + (1+c) A In Q2 - c A in Q1 C5.41

This fo rm u la tio n i l lu s t r a te s how In Q.. takes in to account the c y c lic a l

v a r ia t io n o f o u tp u t- I f c is less than - - 5 , an increase in p roduc tion

induces more increase in employment in the fo llo w in g year than in the

cu rren t year- There may be noth ing wrong w ith th is th e o r e t ic a l ly , but i t

becomes in th is case very hard to a d jus t the fo re cas ts to a ta rg e t

unemployment ra te - In conc lus ion , we want c to be between -«5 and 0 . This

requirement is handled in the regress ion ro u tin e as fo llo w s : Regression

c o e ff ic ie n ts are f i r s t estim ated w ith o u t c o n s tra in ts ; i f c happens to be

less than - - 5 , or p o s it iv e , the d iffe re n c e between the estim ated value o f c

and the boundary CO., - .5 ) is spread over the va rious c o e ff ic ie n ts

according to the p a r t ia l d e r iv a t iv e s o f each c o e f f ic ie n t w ith respect to c.

Let b be the vec to r o f reg ress ion c o e f f ic ie n ts , as estim ated w ith no

c o n s tra in ts :

b = (a , b , c )

tH* ^Let d = c - c , c being 0 i f c > 0

- .5 i f c < - .5

then the regression c o e f f ic ie n t w ith c set equal to i t s des ired value c*

would be

d a

dbb = a - d -

dc

76

★c = c

#

The equation type 2 is a v a r ia n t o f type 1. Here the c y c l ic a l term is

the le v e l o f o u tp u t, in s tead o f the change in o u tp u t.

In ( NH* / Q* ) = a + b x tim e + c In Q* C5.53i i i i i i

A t h ir d type was te s te d . An a lte rn a te fo rm u la tio n fo r the tren d component

is s p e c ifie d w ith a one-period lag o f NH..

In ( NH* / Q* ) = a + b NH* ’ 1 + c A In Q* C5.63i i i i i i i

Results fo r equation types 2 and 3 are d isp layed in Appendix Tables 12 and

13. As usual, w ith these types o f e qu a tions , the f i t s are found to be very

good. However, these equations were estim ated on short tim e s e r ie s . What

kind o f c o n s tra in ts should be imposed on the c o e f f ic ie n ts o f equation types

2 and 3?

For equation type 2 , adding In Q. to both sides o f C5.5U g ives

In C NH* ) = a + b tim e + (1+c) In Q* i i i i

We thus want c to be g re a te r than - 1 . , but n e g a tive . However, accord ing to

t h is model, the t o ta l v a r ia t io n in the number o f hours worked o r ig in a t in g

from a change in ou tpu t is experienced in the cu rre n t year. Thus, the

adjustment o f the fo re ca s ts to h i t ta rg e t unemployment ra te does not

encounter the same problems as w ith equation type 1, and no fu r th e r

r e s t r ic t io n needs to be made on c.

Equation type 3 d i f f e r s from equation type 1 on ly by the tren d term .

The c o e f f ic ie n t c is th e re fo re cons tra ined to be between - .5 and 0 . , fo r

Results are d isp layed in Appendix Table 11.

77

These c o n s tra in ts are a c tu a lly found to have very l i t t l e e f fe c t on the

goodness o f the f i t . In Appendix Tables 13 and 14 we compare constra ined

and unconstra ined estim ates o f equation type 3 . Equation types 2 and 3

were found to behave q u ite s im i la r ly . C onversely, equation type 1 shows a

d is t in c t iv e fe a tu re .

Let us consider secto r 5 , Petroleum R e fin ing and N a tu ra l Gas. Table

5.2 shows the re s u lts o f the 3 types o f equa tion . The 1975 recession is

marked by a 1% reduc tio n in the number o f hours worked, w h ile the output

f a l l s by almost 9%. The apparent p ro d u c t iv ity decreases. Since we measure

i t s in ve rse , our p lo t shows a jump in 1975. Equation type 1 does not

ad jus t to th is change. Conversely equation types 2 and 3 a d jus t very w e ll

to the recession-

S im ila r re s u lts were found fo r every sec to r showing an abrupt change

in 1974-1975. The model cannot fo re c a s t a recession such as the one in

1974-1975. I t is however the very purpose o f such a model to estim ate the

fo reseeab le consequences o f these abrupt changes. We th e re fo re want to

p ick an equation s p e c if ic a t io n th a t f i t s c lo s e ly the v a r ia t io n s o f apparent

p ro d u c t iv ity lin k e d to a recess ion . We thus d isca rd equation type 1 , but

do not f in d a c le a r-c u t c r i t e r io n to choose between equation types 2 and 3 .

For type 3> however, 29 out o f 35 equations had th e ir c c o e f f ic ie n ts

cons tra ined , as opposed to 7 out o f 35 fo r equation type 2 . We thus

decided to use equation type 2 .

5 .2 Forecast o f the work week

For these equa tions , we are more concerned about id e n t ify in g the

trends ra th e r than f i t t i n g sho rt term v a r ia t io n s lin k e d to the changes in

the same reasons as in equation type 1.

iNDbSlKv NAME J b PROD. PfcTROLE ET 6,»Z NATURELBttUAFIOK TYPE 1 J LNCE/«)= A ♦ 0*1 ’♦ C*DELTALNfQ>

COEFFICIENT T - STATCONST 3.7*41 166.744TIME -.0 5 1 0 9 W . 52006 CMwOijT -.Mf . RbARstk.

KLOHEsSlON for the FRENCH PRODUCTIVITY EQUATION

YtAH

$

53

lb

■.<10452 -1 .3 9 2 6 6 .877I7HH0

P R tO lC T .(♦)

§1.h3§50.09848 .02545.20042.65042.66441*48836.522

.529ACTUALC * )

SWfi49.325 *47.040 4 4 ,3 /5 *•0.342 40.300

sm s ♦26.000

♦39.00032*500

EKP 1U2J. 103b* 1796. 10o6. 1853. 1862. 1866. 1809* 1773. 1765.

OUT 29 . 31 . 34. 37 . 39 . 42 . 46 . 45* *»1. 46.

45 .5004

52.0004

5^,500 65.000♦ -t

71 .500 78.000

LUy 62.340 58.421 53.119 49 .325 47.840 44 .375 40*342 40 .300 43.067 38.730

vl00

Table 5.2.

Productivity

Eauations for

Sector 5

- Petroleum

R

efining

P r i i n r s s i n n F<m f u r F u r n n i PHO.IUCT I W TY r i »u#TTON

I NOUS T^Y N*Mr : «> o i ? n p . p t ' T t ’ C L r •=" 1 ' M T l W r i

t O I » 4T I OH T YPF i ; L w i r / n j - * ♦ R * T ♦ r * i. m ( ( i )

r n r r r i f k n t t - M a rCONST A . mo-> j ?<*.? p iT i r t •‘ 1 * 7 ° - i i . j a p o rl . tVOUT y k j r n - 1 ?•. 1 ^ « sP' }At t f.O O9D7(!O| |0 '■f. *

Y t « R p p r n j r T . !♦ > fir. H i m i *»

^7 ft? , ’' C' K H ? . M I♦

1f * r- 7 . O 0 A ■> R . H i’ 1 2*,<> T T « 9 7 ? «?' . 119 3T r. i »»f> . ^7 5 *71 II 7 . <» 7 . ft » *;7 r II ■* . Cl ? 4 U . 57f> if.7 ^ 0 t . l 0 *> V . 3<l2 77<I * * . ?•R ? 1 . -3 ' ' ' P7 n • ? . ' » * 7 97/ » r t , o o i 1 r. . 7 3 V

f u p 1 P T

o i i t

17^. 18c 3.

2f .iiCO

1 R &? #

M . XU. * 7 , ~9 . 0 A .

32.!5?io jo.ttno

1 B '.»9 # t 7 7 3 • 1 7 6 5

*» *r . <11. 46

L O O 6 - > . ^ i i f ' Q . n ? t e * . l l < > « n . 3 ? 5 m . r i t ' . H H . 1 7 S H? . 3 H ? m* . 3 ^ 0 < 1 3 . 0 6 7 3 f l . 7 3 '

p» ur^'shjn f o n THr r« r?)/'*• «>t*onijc n vi t y foiMjioN-'

P inn'ny mvf C f i l M T i n w

pfT*'OLL N | F / 0 | T * fT Y f T

r n.r r r I ^ I r M T ■ T - C 0 'J T :>.•»**? T 1 - '• M 'U IKr o o t * i, . ' t <»7- i # . T r / r.HMMUT

Rf (J , 0 7 l t . r-*s I.no

.* n ',#/ UMtl.<r lCUT/til ( T - l ) ♦ n i T i r i T M N(OMT (T 1 1 T * I

LM|>

OUT

if. <p

i, t, hr’77 1 T>7 ■*7 0 7 r 7 A

p i t p i r r . ( ♦ i

t *».r i ' ir i i ,n o « ' WO.M .*i .M .a .

1o. ■ 7 • n n ? 7 '> J * r *, m p- <

pi .o7

Til,vi ( *)

" .M io4 ^■>*><*7. SH •« 1 . « 7 r>« ' . 3 “ ? a . * * i« . ’ ft 7T A . 7

13)1.

I**.

3 2 . ‘».» I 3 9 . K S . V i t

I f l 0 9 . 1 7 7 3 . 1 7 A5 .

*5. 41. H6.

5 P . n » » 5 « . S O O 65•000 7 1 . 5 0 0 7fl. 000

t o o £ ? . « « > • . o . o ^ i » » ' > . } ? > n r . a i i i a # . ^ 7 5 h » . 3 H ? « n . 3 ' 0 q 3 . J f c7 * f l . 7 3f ‘

81

o u tp u t, a lthough the v a r ia t io n s o f ou tpu t do have a determ inant in flu e n c e

on the v a r ia b le . We do so because, as we have no ticed above, some sectors

present a stop-and-go p a tte rn , i l lu s t r a te d in Table 5 .1 , which is q u ite

hard to model. Since we wanted to keep th in g s s im p le , we t r ie d to fo re c a s t

the genera l tren d o f each in d u s try , and decided to re ly on exogenous

c o n tro ls to shape some s p e c if ic s e c to rs .

The form o f the equation is :

In C AHW* - ALPHA ) = a + b tim e + c In ( AHW* " 1 ) C5.73 i i i i i i

where a lpha, is a lower bound fo r the p re d ic te d AHW... Table 5.3

shows fo recasted values o f AHW fo r a c h a ra c te r is t ic in d u s try : 15, E le c t r ic

Equipment. Sector 15 presents a p a r t ic u la r ly smooth d e c lin e , w h ile secto r

35 presents the stop-and-go p a tte rn c h a ra c te r is t ic o f h ig h ly un ion ized

in d u s tr ie s .

5.3 Forecast o f the T o ta l Employment

M u lt ip ly in g the fo recas ted NH.. by AHW , we get a fo re ca s t o f

the number o f employees by in d u s try * We next use the base year r a t io

EMPR.j to get the t o ta l employment:

EHPRt = EHP1 + SEHPi1 emp!

where

EMPt = number o f employees in in d u s try i , year t .

SEMPt = number o f se lf-em ployed in in d u s try i , year t .

This method is s a t is fa c to ry i f the number o f se lf-em ployed is sm all

r e la t iv e to the number o f employees, and i f the r a t io EMPR ^ s* a|3Le-

f o p c a s t n r amm. t n o i s t q y M r r

NlJInf'tJ ()F MOff*' 'lOUHS prii UTFK FOlMTfO^i * r f > r < n * « i c . r i r r . f T F t r c r n o * .

TVPE f S : H r»*Ar o r P f i r f T N t T - ST AT

CONST fMT - H . O f OP - 9 . 5 1 ' 1 °ai a h m c t - 1 »

T | P F -.•■ ( i M 7 - I . # “ f ?c- , t ° - .*•#• i

VF AO P P F O I T f ♦ > AC TM 41 C *1f t * i r A C T L r * P ( i F n f C - - f - A * ♦

M UA *»/-. '»/-/ ? <l f . c ’ o * . - o pM II A . *» "» 1 f/■ o *1* . I 0 « l f . 01 ’ 7(■ 5 • 1 5 . 7 0 i s , m 1 cA A «l * . 70 1 * . * r - ?*>* 7 ft •> .««• a s . <» <i - 1 '•# P |J C I K <t * . n - i Pf Q * 5 ’ ’ # o o . ■). - 1 5?• *U . o q . ' K -71 «l 9 . ’ 7 < ! < • . * ”* 17? « * . ? ' » <11 .1# T 77* q ? . 7 <* - i '? q • I ? . I f M ? • 1 0 ' 0; c 0 1 . V M l . b I *1i t a 1 . ? r <1 ’ . - ? *i i , n H ■ . f- P T ' A S T A R T f o r f c a s t -i p . * t <» . 4 4 • r ATO <i * . r><i ‘ PAf“ • ' * ’ k ’ . r f " i t91 m 1 n ><>APP . - / i F. 1 r » AP * ..-»p* ! ? . f - ‘M . » i ? 9 . f 1 r ^ A

T 9 . 5 ? • l r 'AP f 1 ' *' ?=>. go ♦•'.'•A

DATF AC T| r * p R r n r c , - * M r s s r f * - A * ♦Jf . r

A

<12. f <13.0 ««i. r 4 5.0

Table 5.2>

Work Week

for Sector

15 -

Electrical

Equ-ioment

This is the case fo r most in d u s tr ie s . However, in the sec to r A g r ic u ltu re ,

we f in d about 4 tim es as many se lf-em ployed as employees. In such case, i t

is obv ious ly shaky to fo re ca s t the t o ta l employment by s c a lin g up the

fo recasted number o f employees.

This chapter concludes our d iscu ss io n o f the c o n s ta n t-p ric e model. We

now tu rn to w age-price model.

84

6.1 S truc tu re o f the p r ic e model6-2 Computation o f the c u r re n t-p r ic e va lue added

This chapter p rovides a d e s c r ip t io n o f the p r ic e model* In se c tio n 1,

We discuss the s tru c tu re o f the p r ic e model and then concen tra te , in

sec tion 2, on i t s key e lem ent: the fo re c a s t o f the c u r re n t-p r ic e value

added at the I/O le v e l. The economic content o f the p r ic e model, th a t is

the behav io ra l equations fo r the value-added component, w i l l e v e n tu a lly be

in corpora ted in th is e lem ent. Th is chapter concludes our d iscuss ion o f the

model. L a te r, we w i l l examine d ire c t io n s fo r fu r th e r developments.

6.1 S truc tu re o f the p r ic e model

The p r ic e model is based on the id e n t i t y

P = P x D + P x M + v C 6 .1 ld d f

where:

Pcp row vec to r o f standard domestic p rice s

pf= row vec to r o f fo re ig n p r ic e s

v = row vec to r o f u n it va lue added

D = I/O m a trix o f d o m e s tica lly produced imputs

M = I/O m a trix o f im ported im puts.

The p r in c ip le o f the model is to so lve C6.13 fo r P^, knowing a l l the

other elements o f the id e n t i t y . For each year o f fo re c a s t, the p r ic e model

is run a f te r the c o n s ta n t-p ric e model. In o rde r to run the p r ic e model,

th ree main pieces o f data are needed:

: p r ic e indexes o f im ported m a te ria ls

CHAPTER VI

D e s c rip tio n o f the P rice Model

85

1- Th<e p r ic e indexes o f im ported m a te ria ls

2 - The cu rre n t year M m a trix

3 - The c o n s ta n t-p ric e domestic ou tpu t and the labor p ro d u c t iv ity indexes.

The need fo r item s 1 and 2 is apparent from in sp e c tio n o f equation

C6.11

The need fo r item 3 w i l l be ju s t i f i e d in sec tion 6 .2 . The p r ic e

indexes o f im ported m a te ria ls are exogenous va ria b le s to the model, and

t h e ir c o n s tru c tio n has been d iscussed in se c tio n 3 o f chapter 4 , Let us

now concentrate on item s 2 and 3 .

6 .1 .1 C onstruc tion o f the M m a tr ix .

We have broken down the A m a tr ix used in the c o n s ta n t-p ric e model in to

the D and the M m a tr ice s . In each year o f fo re c a s t, the D m a tr ix is

obtained by d if fe re n c e . Two questions should then be addressed: how do we

get the base year M m a tr ix and how do we update i t fo r each year o f

fo recas t?

Many European c o u n tr ie s p u b lish in p u t-o u tp u t ta b le s which show fo r

each c e l l the amount o r ig in a t in g from domestic p roduction and the amount

o r ig in a t in g from im p o rts , so th a t the D and M m atrices are re a d ily

a v a ila b le . U n fo rtu n a te ly , th is is not the case fo r France. To co n s tru c t a

base year M m a tr ix , we assume a constant r a t io domestic p roduc tion I

im po rts , IMPR9, fo r a l l the in te rm ed ia te and f in a l demand flow s o f

a row i :

86

product i , a lso eva luated a t standard p r ic e . Each row o f the M m a tr ix is

th e re fo re a f ra c t io n o f the corresponding row o f the A m a tr ix :

M° = R° x A° [6 .33

where

R° = ns x ns d iagonal m a tr ix

r ° = IMPR0 , i = 1,ns

r? . = 0 , i * j

As long as the M m a trix is de fin e d in such a way, to compute M*

would be a sim ple m a tte r. We would ju s t have to compute IMPRt

each product i by C6.23 and then M* by C6.33. The model is however b u i l t

to accept a M m a trix whose rows would not be a sim ple f ra c t io n o f the

corresponding row in the A m a tr ix . The problem w ith such an M m a trix

appears when we want to compute M** The ^ fo llo w in g d iscu ss io n was

developed by C. Almon^.

For every product i , the t o ta l im ports fo recas ted in the re a l s ide

must be equal to the sum o f the im ported in p u ts in the in te rm e d ia te and

f in a l demand flo w s :

IMPS1 i

' where

net = nca + nfd

nca = number o f columns in the in te rm e d ia te flow s p o r t io n o f the

ta b le .

nfd = number o f f in a l demand components, exc lud ing exports

net£

j= ii - 1,ns C6.43

87

^ n fd = number o f f in a l demand components, exclud ing im ports

mi / j = i nPu t o f im ported product i per u n it o f output in sec to r

j fo r j < nca; consumption o f im ported product i per u n it

o f f in a l demand fo r nca < j < ne t.

Qj = domestic ou tpu t o f secto r j fo r j £ nca; t o ta l f in a l

demand component j-n c a fo r nca < j < ne t.'

Th is is o f course an undetermined system o f nsxnct unknown mt .■ i / J

fo r ns equa tions. However, we can e a s ily f in d p a r t ic u la r s o lu tio n s .

S ince, by d e f in i t io n o f m? .• / j

netT m° Q° = IMPS0 [6 .5 ]

M i 1

The system o f equations C6.43 can be re w r it te n

net . . runot netV m* Q* = 1HPSi V m° . a0 C6.63j i1 1,3 J 1 IMPS? j=1 1,3 ^

17 ta b le .

so th a t a p a r t ic u la r s o lu tio n o f the system is :

t o Q? IMPS! m = m __3 ii j i j q! i m p s ?

Of course, such a s o lu tio n does not guarantee th a t the m| .• / j

w i l l s tay between 0 and 1 . Another s o lu tio n is proposed, which a d jus ts the

m . c o e f f ic ie n ts by in c re a s in g (decreasing) more the sm all ( la rg e ) i f J

c o e ff ic ie n ts than the ones a lready close to 1 ( 0) , w h ile the n u l l

c o e ff ic ie n ts always stay equal to 0 . The s o lu tio n is

The system of equations C6.41 is. reduced to ns equations, each in 1

unknown, k... Each equation is solved by Newton's method. Once k .

has been found fo r a row, the mt . are computed by C6.81, using the1 / J

base year value m? . . We de rive w ith th is procedure a M m atrix fo r • / Jeach year o f fo re ca s t.

F in a l ly , Let us consider the im plica tions of having the co n s ta n t-p ri ce

domestic p roduction as an in pu t in to the price model.

6 .1 .2 Simultaneous s o lu tio n o f the constant-pri ce model and o f the

p r ic e model

The co n s ta n t-p ri ce output per industry is used to compute the

c u rre n t-p r ic e value-added v e c to r, as w i l l be seen in the next se c tio n . On

the o the r hand, the output d e f la to r is an independent va riab le in the PCE,

im port and export equations. Table 6.1 i l lu s tra te s th is mutual

dependency between the constan t-p rice model and the price model.

This dependency makes i t necessary to set an ite ra t iv e process between

the c o n s ta n t-p r i ce model and the p rice model. For a given year, the

s o lu tio n o f the model w i l l now be a vector of constant-pri ce output and i t s

corresponding vector of domestic p rices. The reso lu tion w i l l take the

89

Table 6-1

fo llo w in g s teps:

1 - Take a f i r s t guess a t the domestic p r ic e s ve c to r by assuming, fo r

example, the same change as in the past year.

2 - The fo re ig n p r ic e s are exogenously s p e c if ie d ; so lve the

co n s ta n t-p ric e model. The re s u lt is a vec to r o f c o n s ta n t-p ric e output

corresponding to the c u rre n t estim ate o f the domestic p r ic e s , and a

p ro d u c t iv ity index by in d u s try .

3 - At the f i r s t i t e r a t io n , sk ip th is s te p . Compute:

T = max.(Qi _ q*)

where: Q. is the c u rre n t estim ate o f domestic output in secto r i ,

as computed in step 2 .

Q* is the previous estim ate o f the domestic output in secto r

i .

4 - Execute the p r ic e model. The re s u lt is a new estim ate o f the domestic

p r ic e v e c to r . At the f i r s t i t e r a t io n , go to step 2.

5 - T o le r is a g iven convergence c r i t e r io n . I f

T > TOLER, go to step 2

T < TOLER, go to step 6

6 - A s o lu tio n has been found fo r th is yea r; go to step 1 to fo re c a s t the

fo llo w in g year.

At th is p o in t , we have discussed a l l the components o f id e n t i t y C6.13

but one: v , the vec to r o f u n it va lue added. This element deserves sp e c ia l

a tte n tio n since a l l the economic content o f the p r ic e model is in co rpo ra ted

in the de te rm ina tion o f t h is v e c to r . By d e f in i t io n ,

vi

C6 . 10:

where

\ = c u r re n t-p r ic e va lue added by secto r i in year t .

v | = u n it va lue added in sec to r i , year t .

The next se c tio n discusses the computation o f the vec to r V.

Value added must be computed at two le v e ls o f s e c to ra l d e ta i l :

1 The in p u t-o u tp u t ( I/O ) le v e l w ith nca secto rs

. 2 The value-added accounts (VAC) le v e l w ith nvac s e c to rs .

In the French model, nca = 88, nvac » 35. The re a l s ide o f the model

produces c o n s ta n t-p ric e o u tp u t, q t , fo r each I/O sec to r i .

However, the b e h a v io ra l equations fo r the wage ra te s , c a p ita l income ra tes

and a l l the o the r value-added components work a t the nvac le v e l. The two

le v e ls have to be combined to get the value-added components fo recas ted at

the nvac le v e l, and the c u r re n t-p r ic e va lue added per u n it o f ou tpu t a t the

I/O le v e l o f d e ta i l .

We s ta r t our d iscu ss io n by cons ide ring the case where the value added

at the VAC le v e l is made o f one s in g le component, so th a t we can fo re ca s t a

value-added d e f la to r fo r any VAC le v e l sec to r by one b e h av io ra l equa tion .

However, we consider the p o s s ib i l i t y th a t each I/O sec to r i can c o n tr ib u te

to more than one VAC sec to r k . We develop on th a t example how to compute

va r* . , the c u r re n t-p r ic e va lue added o f I/O secto r i .• , iNext, We w i l l cons ider the case where the va lue added has severa l

components, and we d iscuss how to co n s tru c t an aggregate value-added

d e f la to r from the d e f la to rs computed fo r each value-added component.

F in a lly , we i l lu s t r a t e t h is d iscu ss io n w ith an example, and w r ite a l l the

steps o f the com putation in m a tr ix n o ta t io n .

Let us consider a p a r t ic u la r VAC sec to r k. Having ju s t fo recasted

d£, the value-added d e f la to r fo r VAC sec to r k , the problem is now

two-^fold:

1 to compute the c u r re n t-p r ic e va lue added o f secto r k

2 to compute the c o n tr ib u t io n o f each I/O le v e l sec to r to the

6.2 Computation o f the c u r re n t-p r ic e va lue added

92

c u r re n t-p r ic e va lue added o f VAC sec to r k.

.et

ncaVAR var

k , iC6

where

o u t

VAR^ = c u r re n t-p r ic e va lue added o f VAC sec to r k , year t

v a r j . = c u r re n t-p r ic e c o n tr ib u tio n o f I/O secto r i to theK, 1va lue added o f VAC secto r k

VAR t ' t vas , dk , i k , i

C6

where

vask , i = c o n s ta n t-p r ic e c o n tr ib u t io n o f I/O secto r i to the va lue

added o f VAC sec to r k , year t

^ k , i = d e f la to r fo r the c o n tr ib u t io n o f I/O secto r i . or

ncaVAR = E va:

i=1 M k , iC6

w h e r e

q? = c o n s ta n t-p r ic e ou tput o f I/O secto r i in year t

vas t = base-year va lue added o f I/O secto r i

We assume now th a t the d£ . are constant w ith in a VAC secto rK/ 1k. S ince va s t . is zero fo r a l l I/O secto rs i not c o n tr ib u t in g to

the va lue added o f se c to r k , C6.133 can be w r it te n :

.113

.123

.133

93

C6.143

so th a t a l l we need in o rder to compute the c u rre n t-p r ic e va lue added o f

VAC secto r k in year t is Dj^ value-added d e f la to r fo r VAC secto r

k and the expression in parentheses. This expression can be computed from

the base year va lue added and the c o n s ta n t-p ric e o u tp u t, obta ined from .the

re a l s ide-

Because we w i l l use the expression in parentheses many tim es in the

next pages, we g ive i t a name- We de fin e the c o n s ta n t-p r ic e , value-added

weighted output (CONPRIVAWO), c£, fo r each VAC sec to r k by:

t nca qtCr = yv vas — C6 -15 □k k , i o

Once we computed VARj, the c u r re n t-p r ic e va lue added o f VAC secto r

k , we want to compute i t s breakdown at the I/O le v e l, the v a r j

By d e f in i t io n o f d j . ,K,1

va r* = vas* x d* C6-16Dk , i k , i k>i

Since we have assumed th a t the d j . were constant w ith in one VAC

secto r k , C6.163 can be w r it te n :

va r* = vas* x D* k , i k , i

o r

94

t o qi ntvar = vas x ----- x Dk , i k , i o k

qi

using C6.143 and C6.153, we f in d

o tVAR. vas. q.var = ____ L _ ____— C6.17]

M Cl q?k i

So th a t , in order to compute the c u r re n t-p r ic e c o n tr ib u t io n o f I/O secto r i

to the value added o f VAC sec to r k , we ju s t need to m u lt ip ly VARj .K, 1

by the ra t io

o tvask , i qi

x_t ock qi

From C6.153, we see th a t th is r a t io is the share o f the c o n tr ib u tio n

o f I/O secto r i to the CONPRIVAWO o f VAC secto r k.

Remembering our d e f in i t io n o f v a r f . in C6-113, we can computeK, ivar^ . , the c u r re n t-p r ic e va lue added o f I/O secto r i , by

nvacvar

We now tu rn to the second pa rt o f our d iscu ss io n : how do we compute

the aggregate value-added d e f la to r a t the VAC le v e l when severa l behav io ra l

equations are invo lved? Let us assume th a t the value added is broken down

in to three components: labor c o s t, taxes and c a p ita l c o s t. The

95

c u rre n t-p r ic e va lue added w i l l now be the sum o f th re e components:

- the c u rre n t-p r ic e labo r cost WAR*

- the cu rre n t-p rice taxes TAX*

- the c u r re n t-p r i ce c a p ita l cost KAR*

dropping the k s u b s c r ip t fo r c la r i t y ,

VAR1 = WAR1 + TAR1 + KAR1 C7.183

From the beh av io ra l e qu a tions , we know fo r each sec to r k

- DWt = labor cost index in year t

- DT* = tax cost index in year t

- DKt = c a p ita l cost index in year t.We can th e re fo re re w r ite C7.183 as

VAR1 = WAS1 x DW1 + TAS1 x DT1 + KAS1 x DK1 C7.193

where

WAS* « c o n s ta n t-p r ic e labo r cost

TAS^ s c o n s ta n t-p r i ce tax cost

KAS* = c o n s ta n t-p r i ce c a p ita l cost

How do we compute these th re e elements? Let us consider WAS*

WAS1 =' -SJ4L- x VAS1 16.203VAS1

The r a t io WAS1* / VAS* is a c o e f f ic ie n t s im ila r to the in p u t-o u tp u t

c o e ff ic ie n ts in the in te rm e d ia te p o r t io n o f the ta b le . We could

conceiveably make i t evolve to take in to account s u b s t itu t io n s between

fa c to rs o f p ro d u c tio n . However, we w i l l a t present keep i t constant at i t s

base year va lue . T he re fo re , C6.203 becomes:

96

WAS1 = i ! £ 5 l x VAS* C6VAS°

simi la r l y ,

TAS* = —— x VAS1 VAS°

KAS* = --.AS x VAS*VAS°

But VAS*, the c o n s ta n t-p r ic e va lue added o f VAC secto r k , is no th ing

but our CONPRIVAWO, indeed:

ncaVAS = ? « .

1=1 '

n” 'o qi= Y vas ------\ M oi=1 q,.

= .c *k

To compute WAR*, TAR11, KAR*, the c u r re n t-p r i ce value-added

components o f VAC sec to r k , we th e re fo re have:

1 to o b ta in from b e h a v io ra l equations DW*, DT* and.DK-t, the

p r ic e indexes o f the va riou s components.

2 to compute the base year ra t io s

.213

97

WAS0 TAS° KASo

VAS° VAS0/

V ASo

3 to compute the CONPRIVAWO,

4 to compute the c u r re n t-p r i ce-va lue o f each component by

ox C* x DW*

kWAR

oVAS

VAS0C7.22D

5 to add the th ree components to o b ta in the c u r re n t-p r ic e va lue added o f

We can then use the procedure described in the f i r s t p a rt o f the

sec tion to a llo c a te VARj between the I/O le v e l se c to rs .

Let us now implement the procedure s te p -b y -s te p w ith an example- As a

f i r s t step toward computer im p lem enta tion , we w i l l describe the procedure

in m a trix n o ta t io n , denoting by the n x n d iagonal m a tr ix made out o f the

n x 1 vecto r r , and by 1 a ve c to r made o f 1 's .

In th is example, we consider the genera l case where the I/O secto rs

can draw upon severa l VAC le v e l s e c to rs , and where severa l behav io ra l

equations are used to fo re c a s t the cu rre n t p r ic e va lue added at the VAC

le v e l. Two steps are in v o lv e d :

1 computation o f the c u r re n t-p r ic e value-added a t the VAC le v e l

1 update o f the b ridg e ta b le from the VAC to the I/O le v e l, and computation

sector k

o f the c u r re n t-p r ic e va lue added at the I/O le v e l.

Let us f i r s t consider the base-year b ridge ta b le V°. Each element

vasP . is the I/O se c to r i c o n tr ib u t io n to the base-year value

added o f VAC sec to r k . Table 6 .2 presents a V° m a tr ix .

Table 6.2 V° m a tr ix : base-year b ridg e ta b le o f value added between the

VAC and the I/O le v e l

I/O le v e l

1 2 3 4 5 6 T o ta l

V.A. 1 100 200 80 40 420

sectors 2 170 150 40 360

3 20 150 40 210

T o ta l 100 200 250 170 150 120

Each t o ta l is a c tu a lly the sum o f th ree components •• labor income.

income and in d ir e c t ta xe s . The value-added tax has been taken away, so

in d ire c t taxes are m ain ly wage and p rope rty taxes . Table 6 .3 shows the

base-year values o f these components.

Table 6.3 G° m a tr ix : value-added components a t the VAC le v e l, base year

VA sectors 1 2 3

Labor 294 252 70

C a p ita l 126 72 70

Taxes 0 36 70

To ta l 420 360 210

The element Gt o f m a tr ix G* shows the year t c o n tr ib u t io n o f 1 ,Kcomponent i to the va lue added o f VAC secto r k

i t shows WAr£, TARj and KARj o f C6.223. We next

99

convert the elements o f m a tr ix 6t in to c o e f f ic ie n ts

j / kG* / C* C6.233

h* . ™ L X dw*j , k VASo

C6.243

Table 6 .4 M a trix H in base year

Sector 1 2 3

Labor .7 .7 .33

C a p ita l .3 . .2 .33

Taxes .0 .1 .33

T o ta l 1.0 1.0 1.0

The base year c o e f f ic ie n ts are the ra t io s WAS0 / VAS°, e t c . . . o f

equation C6.223. The b eh av io ra l equations fo re c a s t DWt, DT* and

DK*. In o ther words, they fo re ca s t indexes o f the h | .j

c o e f f ic ie n ts . Let us assume th a t from the behav io ra l equations we lea rn

th a t between year 0 and year 1 the growth ra t io s fo r each h t . w i l lJ

be as shown in Table 6 .5 .

Table 6.5 M a trix D: growth ra t io s o f ht . between the base year

and year 1

Sector 1 2 3

Labor 1.2 1.1 1.15

C a p ita l 1.05 1.07 1.10

Taxes 1.06 1.06 1.06

The hi . are th e re fo re :1 ,K .

Table 606 H m a tr ix in year 1

10 0

Sector 1 2 3

Labor .84 .77 .3833

C a p ita l .31 .21 .3667

Taxes .0 .106 .3533

So th a t - H° . D, where . stands fo r dot p roduc t.

To compute the cu rre n t va lue o f each value-added component in year i , we

need to m u lt ip ly , accord ing to equation C6.223, each column o f by

the corresponding CONPRIVAWO. The c o n s ta r it-p r ic e output a t the I/O le v e l

has been computed in the re a l s ide o f the model. Table 6 .7 shows the

growth ra t io s and c o n s ta n t-p ric e values o f output in year 0 and 1 .

Table 6.7 I/O le v e l c o n s ta n t-p ric e o u tp u t, base year and yeaM

I/O sectors

1 2 3 4 5 6

Base year 1000 1500 500 300 400 200

Year 1 1500 .1650 500 390 600 240

Growth ra t io s 1.5 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.2

To o b ta in the CONPRIVAWO's fo r year 1> we m u lt ip ly each column o f the V°

m atrix (Tab le6.2) by the corresponding growth r a t io and sum over

in p u t-o u tp u t in d u s t r ie s , according to equation C6.153. Results are shown in

Table 6 . 8.

101

Table 6-8 CONPRIVAWO' s fo r year 1: V m a trix

I/O le v e l

1 2 3 4 5 6 T o ta l

V.A. 1 150 220 80 48 498

secto rs 2 170 195 48 413

3 26 225 48 299

I f we denote the column vec to r o f C0NPRIVAW0*s C*

C1 = V1 x 1*

= V° x r 1 x 1* C6.253

Where r^ denotes the nca x nca d iagona l m a trix o f c o n s ta n t-p r ic e ou tpu t

growth ra t io s from year 0 to year 1.

Where now have a l l the elements to compute the c u r re n t-p r ic e va lue added o f

any VAC se c to r- F i r s t , the G m a tr ix fo r year 1 , G^, is computed by

m u lt ip ly in g the h j ^ c o e f f ic ie n ts from Table 6-6 by the

CONPRIVAWO1s fo r year 1.

Table 6-9 M a tr ix G^: c u r re n t-p r ic e Value o f the value-added

components-

VA secto rs 1 2 3

Labor .84 x 498 = 418 .77 x 413 = 318 .3833 x 299 = 11*

C a p ita l 154 86.5 109.5

Taxes 0 4 3 .5x 105 5

T o ta l 572 448 329

G1 = H1 x C1 C6.263

The c u rre n t-p r ic e va lue added at the VAC le v e l fo r year 1 is ob ta ined by

summing each column o f G^.

VA1 = C 1 ' x G1 3 ' = G1 ' x 1 C6.273

where VA is the nvac x 1 vec to r o f c u r re n t-p r ic e value added at the

VAC le v e l.

The la s t step is to a llo c a te the va lue added, compted fo r the VAC s e c to rs ,

among the nca I/O se c to rs . We a llo c a te them according to th e c o n tr ib u t io n

o f each I/O sec to r to the CONPRIVAWO o f the c u rre n t year, (equa tion

C6.173).

This c o n tr ib u tio n is computed from Table 6 .7 . The re s u lt is the m a tr ix

S ', shown in Table 6 .10 .

S1 = V° / C1k , i k , i o k' q1

S1 = C 3 "1 x V° x r 1 C6.283

Table 6.10 M a trix S1

I/O Sectors

; 102

1 2 3 4 5 6 T ot a I

VA 1 .3012 .4418 .1606 • .0- .0 .0964 1.

Sectors 2 -0 .0 .4116 .4722 .0 .1162 1.

3 .0 .0 .0 .0870 .7525 .1605 1.

To get the c u rre n t-v a lu e c o n tr ib u t io n o f VAC secto r k to the value added of

I/O sector i , we m u lt ip ly each share by the corresponding c u r re n t-p r ic e

value added at the VAC le v e l. Summing over the VAC s e c to rs , we get the

103

c u rre n t-p r ic e va lue added per I/O secto r in year 1 , as shown in Table 6-11.

Table 6.11 M a trix ; b ridge ta b le between the va lue added a t the VAC

le v e l and a t the I/O le v e l in year 1.

I/O Sectors•

1 2 3 4 5 6 T o ta l

va ; 1 172.49 253.01 31.47 .0 55.23 572.70

Sectors 2 .0 -0 184.60 211.78 •0 52.13 448.51

3 .0 ^0 •0 28.69 248.23 52.96 329.88

T o ta l 172.49 253.57 286.57 240.47 248.23 160.32

1 1 va1 = V ' x 1

where va1 a nca x 1 ve c to r o f c u r re n t-p r ic e va lue added a t the I/O

le v e l in year 1.

Let us summarize the steps to compute va^ , the c u r re n t-p r ic e value

added by I/O s e c to r.

F i r s t , VA_1, c u r re n t-p r ic e va lue added by VAC sec to r is computed by

VA1 = G1 * x 1

C6.293

= H1 x x 1

= H° . D x C1 x 1 [6.303

where

H° = base-year m a trix o f value-added components per u n it o f

C0NPRIVAW0

D = m a trix o f growth ra t io s o f the value-added component p rice s

= d iagona l m a tr ix o f CONPRIVAWO's in year 1.

Next, the c u r re n t-p r ic e va lue added computed a t the VAC le v e l is

a llo c a te d among the nca I/O secto rs to o b ta in va^, the nca x 1 vec to r

o f c u r re n t-p r ic e va lue added a t the I/O le v e l.

va1 = C VA1 x S1 1 ’ x 1 C6.313

S1 = C C1 D-1 x V° x [6 .3 2 ]

where

V° = base-year b ridge ta b le between the va lue added a t the VAC

le v e l and the I/O le v e l

= growth ra t io s o f c o n s ta n t-p ric e output a t the I/O le v e l

C*1 = CONPRIVAWO's in year 1.

between year 0 and 1

1 C. Almon, Ihe_INFORUMz IIA S A _ In te rn a tio n a l_S ^s te m _o f_ In B u t=Outgut_M odeIs,

paper presented a t the Seventh In te rn a t io n a l Conference on Inpu t-O u tp u t

Techniques, In n sb ru ck , A u s tr ia , 1979.

105

CHAPTER V II

Forecast 1980 - 1985

7.1 Reference fo re c a s t7 .2 A lte rn a te fo re c a s t

The average annual growth ra te o f the 6NP was 3.5% in 1979. I t was

even h igher in the second h a l f , bu t th is high le v e l was app a re n tly on ly due

to expecta tions o f sharp p r ic e increases in 1980. C o n tras ting w ith 1979,

our fo re ca s t p re d ic ts a sharp downturn in economic a c t iv i t y fo r 1980,

fo llow e d by s lu g g ish years through 1985. Under the assumption th a t no tax

cut w i l l be granted to increase aggregate demand, unemployment is found to

reach a post World War I I record o f 10.37 % by 1985, w h ile the GNP growth

ra te is down to 1.28 %.

Th is chapter comments on the fo re ca s ts to 1985 obta ined w ith the

model. The c o n s ta n t-p r ic e model was used a lone , exogenous dom estic p rice s

and o f course exogenous fo re ig n p r ic e s being fed in to the model.

A re ference fo re c a s t is presented in se c tio n 1. At th is p o in t , s ince the

model does not in co rp o ra te a feedback through a wage and income s id e , our

re s u lts are q u ite dependent upon the exogenous assumptions. We th e re fo re

s ta r t by g iv in g a d e ta ile d account o f the assumptions fo r the re fe rence

fo re c a s t. In s e c tio n 2 , we present a lte rn a te assumptions and the

corresponding fo re c a s ts .

7.1 Reference fo re c a s t

7 .1 .1 Assumptions fo r the re fe rence fo re ca s t

This s e c tio n would not have been very w e ll grounded w ith o u t the help

o f the G .A .M .A .^, and o f th e ir macro model o f the French economy,

106

MOGLI. This is a short to m id-term dynamic model; i t produces fo re ca s ts

o f output in 10 s e c to rs , and has a comprehensive wage and income s id e . The

re s u lts o f t h is model were p e r fe c t ly f i t t e d fo r use as in pu ts in to our I/O

model. We are now going to d iscuss in d e ta i l the assumptions made, along

w ith the re s u lts we have borrowed from the model MOGLI.

For the 1980-85 p e rio d , the main re s u lts o f the model MOGLI are

d isp layed in ta b le 7 .1 .

Table 7.1 Aggregate re s u lts from MOGLI, March 1980 fo re c a s t.

1978 1979, 1980 1981 . 1982 1983 1984 1985

Labor Force +114 +214 +174 +204 +186 +192 +21 +113( le v e l , 1000)Product Shipments(%) +3.17 +3.45 +1.65 +2.24 +1.17 +1.74 +1,68 +0.78

Imports (%) +5.77 +8.78 +5.10 +6.59 +5.45 +5.17 +2.66 +3.27

P.C.E. (%) +3.84 +2.81 +1.44 +1.86 +1.20 +1.34 +1.41 + .39

Bus. In v e s t. (%) +2.78 +3.60 +3.62 +1.33 -1 .25 + .35 - .93 +1.88

Exports (%) +5.72 +8.39 +4.97 +7.29 +7.45 +5.87 +3.66 +3.02

Ch. in In v . -229 +5826 -2067 +3141 +2969 +2680 +3619 -19(m ill io n s o f Disp. In c . /

FF)ca p .(%) +4.59 +1.91 +2.;20 +3.16 +2.18 +2.25 +2.17 + 1 a 55

Prod. P rices (%) +10.03 +9.41 +9.04 +8.78 +6.72 +7.09 +7.00 +7.35

CPI (%) +9.11 +10.51 +11.12 +8.92 +7.51 +7.62 +7.65 +7.86

Export P rices (%) +6.90 +7.99 +10.04 +8.14 +5.14 +6.67 +4.18 +5.65

Import P rices (%) +1.94 +8.62 +16.22 +5.67 +5.85 +6.88 +5.28 +6.16

Unemployment +95 +180 +215 +181 +147 +185 +214 +113( le v e l , 1000)

107

Let us comment on th is fo re c a s t.

I D isposable income per c a p ita .

Very modest growth is expected. Such a low increase w i l l be due to

the con junc tio n o f th re e fa c to rs :

1 - A f a l l in t o t a l employment in 1980.

2 - A fu r th e r increase in s o c ia l s e c u r ity taxes paid by households. The

in c rea s ing d e f i c i t o f the S oc ia l S e c u rity A d m in is tra tio n makes th is

h y p o th e tic a l increase q u ite l i k e l y / but because o f the p re s id e n t ia l

e le c tio n s in 1981/ the measure is be lie ved to be postponed u n t i l 1982.

3 - The savings/incom e r a t io was found to be a t a low le v e l in 1979 and is

l ik e ly to in c re a se / cons ide ring the soaring unemployment.

I I Government expe nd itu res .

The increase in government expenditures comes m ainly from an increase

in defense spending.

I I I Investm ents.

F ixed business i nvestment. The moderate growth o f f ix e d business

investm ents in 1979 is fo recas ted to continue in 1980. S ta r t in g in

1981, the e xpe c ta tio n o f a decrease in domestic market demand, the high

le v e l in te re s t ra tes and fo recas ted slowdown o f investm ents by the

state-owned co rpo ra tion s in te lecom m unications and t ra n s p o r ta t io n

serv ices should lead to a new recession o f f ix e d business investm ents.

Fixed investment by households. S ta r t in g in 1980 a slow d e c lin e is

fo re ca s te d , due to the slowdown o f d isposab le income, h igh in te re s t

ra tes and high p rice s fo r land and new c o n s tru c tio n .

Fixed governm ent.investm ent. A la rge budget d e f ic i t a llow s moderate grow th.

108

Exports have been the d r iv in g fo rce o f the economy d u rin g the Last two

years. In 1980 and '81, a Lower growth ra te is fo re c a s te d , which s ta y s ,

however, above the growth ra te o f fo re ig n demand. Th is w i l l be due to two

reasons :

1 - French export p r ice s grow sLower than both p rodu c tion p r ic e s and

fo re ig n p r ic e s converted in to French fra n c s . We indeed can remember

from chapter 2 th a t exports do not in c lu d e VAT, and ve ry o fte n c a r ry a

trad e margin s u b s ta n t ia lly lower th a t the standard m arg in . For these

reasons, export p rice s should s tay under the fo re ig n p r ic e s o f

competing exports in s p ite o f the r e la t iv e s tren g th o f the French

f ra n c . Table 7 .2 i l lu s t r a te s t h is p o in t and shows the r e la t iv e p rice s

as they are seen in the 1980 - 1985 p e rio d .

2 - The sluggishness o f the domestic market creates an e x p o rta b le su rp lu s .

Table 7 .2 P ro je c tio n o f R e la tive P ric e s , 1978 - 1985.

XV EXPORTS

V IMPORTS

The main assumptions concern im ported o i l . I t is assumed th a t ,

considering the slow growth ra te o f o u tp u t, the tax in c e n tiv e s to conserve

energy and the development o f nuclear power p la n ts , the volume o f im ported

o i l w i l l decrease s lo w ly , s ta r t in g in 1981. Th is assumption makes

necessary the on ly c o e f f ic ie n t change we perform in the in p u t-o u tp u t

m a tr ix . This c o e f f ic ie n t change is discussed in the next s e c t io n .

V II COEFFICIENT CHANGES IN THE A MATRIX.

Changes in the A m a trix were performed to take in to account the

above-mentioned fa c to rs . We wanted to take in to account, even in a

s im p lis t ic way:

- Energy conserva tion and s u b s t itu t io n o i l / e le c t r i c i t y in the in d u s try

Development o f nuc lear programs, re s u lt in g in a decrease in the o i l in pu t

in e le c t r ic u t i l i t i e s , and the conversion o f some power p la n ts from o i l

to c o a l.

Since no data were re a d ily a v a ila b le fo r use in e s tim a tin g the

c o e f f ic ie n t changes, we took a quick look at the Inforum US model and

computed th ree indexes from the re fe rence fo re ca s t over the pe riod

1976-1985. The indexes are l is te d in Table 7 .3 .

Table 7 .3 Energy Consumption / Output Indexes from theInforum Model o f the US Economy

109

use o f energy per u n it o f output

1976 1980 1985

E le c t r ic i t y 1- 1.01 1.02

O il 1. .95 .84

E le c t r ic i t y + O il 1. .99 .95

The th i r d index in d ic a te s the energy conserva tion tre n d , and the f i r s t

two i l lu s t r a t e the s u b s t itu t io n o f e le c t r ic i t y fo r o i l . W ithout n a tu ra l

gas or c o a l, the p ic tu re is o f course not complete, but i t s t i l l g ives an

idea o f how extended the changes can be. We used the indexes as fo llo w s :

we marked up a l l the c o e ff ic ie n ts in row 9 , E le c t r ic U t i l i t i e s , and in row

1 1 0

8 , Petroleum R e fin in g , by the indexes 1 and 2 o f Table 7 .3 . In 1981, the

c o n s ta n t-c o e ff ic ie n t re ference forecast fo r the intermediate sales of

petroleum products was 73961. These c o e ff ic ie n t changes reduced the sales

by 11718. The in c re a s in g output o f the nuclear power plants w i l l reduce

s u b s ta n t ia lly the o i l in p u t in to the E le c tr ic U t i l i t ie s column. I t is

be lieved th a t the o i l in p u t w i l l be reduced by 35 X by 1985 w ith respect to

the le v e l i t would have had i f the 1976 consumption pattern had been kept.

The conversion to c o a l- f ir e d power plants would account fo r 15% and the

development o f nuc lear power p lan ts fo r the remaining 20%. The coe ffic ie n t

changes induced a cu t o f 13733 in the output o f the Petroleum Refining

secto r in 1985, induc ing a decrease o f 7528, or 4.78% in crude o i l imports

re la t iv e to the c o n s ta n t-c o e ff ic ie n t fo recas t.

VI PRICES

In 1979 the consumer p r ic e index grew 10.5%. The o i l b i l l accounted

fo r 1% o f the in c rea se , but the p rice decontrol was the major fa c to r. In

1980, in f la t io n is s t i l l on the two d ig i t scale, mainly because of the

p r ic e o f energy, ren t and se rv ice s . In 1981 and 1982, the expected

slowdown is m ainly a consequence o f a favorable hypothesis concerning o i l

and in d u s t r ia l raw m a te ria l p r ic e s .

This set o f assumptions leads to the reference forecast that we review

in the next s e c tio n .

7 ,1 .2 Reference fo re ca s t

The reference fo re ca s t was run over the period 1979-1985. Table 7.4

shows the main re s u lts . D e ta iled forecasts at the input-output level can

be found in Appendix Table 15.

The s a lie n t c h a ra c te r is t ic o f th is forecast is the steady growth of

unemployment, which re s u lts from the combination of two fac to rs . On the

Table 7 .4 Reference Forecast 1980 - 1985

111

W!Uia

IKts*5 m i< oa I

o> Ic — *

■im i <b I O■ J

CVl •

M I& I o IM I

O I« IO I« I

— O IVI — I rf I U ~ I

Ui K O Vb

Cb ■ »» | <► I

■41 • I

O- t M' I

' O © O. C o c

« • • •9 m cv o*in <► 9

mm o*O 9*> r»>c\t CM

** w C. oin• • • «*r > wm 1*1 PO

in K\CM <M

o tj nO’ ■w W• 0 • «V -O' wIT 00 Oin o«n F\ #l>CM M

^ *» « M O (\i in<►. C ^ » » IP *"• • • e • • •

C

o » in tn u' » (M a irt K' *»i *n fii «■ . . . . * • •

W d « * i n n i .(VtS(\l

<. c- » *• »•>® a 1,1 (v **' n »» •** «•'«««•. *■

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nt

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a* *• at« ^ n

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«• w £ «r - o c

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w tv

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9 fv cv.in «n •M3W CM eg CM

4T

•4Jm O'

• • • • •in * «*in 9

flL CM CM CM9

Cl o «U U, 9 <L• • s t •<C - O* mm IT m oX CM Mi CM CM

«r ' 9m

CL CM flL Id'•* f" >• • • • •

PS ’ %» ** 9 9**

flu CM Md fn9

in O rr\ CMo; o in• • • • •

c V«XJ flu

w CM <1 r>9 ’ M

m C> c 9F> in O Or *1• • 9 • •

in in #«« CM CMOj CM 9 a., •• **

Ot <► in••

• • * • • ••* m CM<* w inrv a» «r m

9

Hi r Od m<%i tr 9• • • • •

9 CM CM in jj1U f> in 9.* auO CV a* 99 <<

3 a r» am c* in ou• • • • •

&> 9a* 9

cr CV in P\

X a2 u. Ui 2 t/>O a c ta« r**4 c w‘ z DCwJ • M UJ o

a. r* ■ ** o a«z Ui X

s w u s w UJw > • CL c:

u >• QC *■* •■g • c c a i-r K &c c o; » a c

2 9 a. c a ui ou. £ QC Uri u

o a u <Q

Lff u.

3 o • 2 UI o oa ST c > « 2 a.c « o o X a.u. a c

V* u UJ h»

(\ N (\l I'1

VI t f— (

I

Ui iU. I OS Iu: I

>• vi ^ vO' • y _j a:>- JT ac ° a £ <-c v-. “ O <- v/l

a 3 v » *. or 3ui c z o: e: w cz ? c u ts s zL. M u v< « UJ pa

° ° lis- ^ = ►* s, o «ui t e >Z Z « ^3 3 »• i-* *• •“ «\i o -

F0HECAS1 for : rfeekence forecast

SECIOR 76-78 7P-79 19-81, 81-81

ASSUMPTION?;

1 POPUl nmN (N1LI IONS • 4J . 40 • 4U .412 OISP. INC. /TAP. 1 F» 3.75 I .9 1 2.2C 3.153 LABOR FORCE (lU T ) .61 .95 . ?e .89* GOV. EHPt OV. 1 UN') .26 .91 .89

21 51 ANnART) PRICE INflEX fi.45 9.50 1 1.91 9i 242? CONSUMER'S PRICE IND e.73 9.6C 1C. 95 9.1925 EXPORTS PRICE 7.40 e. 9? i-i. 3* 8.872 3 FP OF COUP. EXPORTS *.9 7 9,54 10.97 9.5220 F» OF IdPORIS 6.40 10.24 1 2. 21 9. 3 7^RFGAIF RESULTS

6 UNEMPLOYMENT (1 jnr* ) 9.22 14. 33 15.64 1 2. 0 57 UNFMPIOYMFNI RAlF(k) 8.55 13.25 14.75 11 .('6

11 PROD DC AQRICltT. 5.53 4.39 3.93 4.3612 TlVITY FNERPY . 5.U1 2.18 5.34 4 .24■13 INnU5T*Y 4.79 6.08 4. 15 3.9111 CONS1R. 5.46 1 . 1 c 4.56 4 .*4V5 SERVICES 2.11 2. 9P • 85 1. 461 6 . EHPIOY AGRICIIL1. ^.je -.44 •- 2 .1 f -1.18! 7 MF N 1 . ENERGY 96 -.28 - 3. 12 - 2. 74IP INnUSlRY -1.38 -.*>7 -1.65 -.7219 CON 5 1R. -2.93 - 1.87 -2. 19 - 2.ee2** SrRVlcES 2.6 1 1.38 1.6t> 1 .45

GROWTH RATES FORI ASSUMPTIONS ANO AfiGRFfiATE RFSIH TS 81-82 8? -83 83-84 8 4-85

.40 .4) .4(12.19 ? .2 5 2.17 1 .55

.81 .83 .93 .4e

.50 •5f .50 .4 77. 32 7.64 7-.39 7.757.60 8 .dl 7 .86 8 .1 7s.ei 6.20 5.55 6.156.71 7.2 4 6 .76 7.4 7f.19 6.81 6.19 6.84

7. 8 3 7.4() 10.50 7.156 .96 6 .52 9 .51 6 .6 43.2 9 3.46 1 .44 1 .324 .54 4 .16 2.23 3. t-fl3.59 3.43 1 .48 1 .924 .52 4 .6 1 4 .5 3 4 .58

.87 . 70 1 .61 1 .26-.89 -.f2 .65 -.28

70 -2.48 -1.68 -1 .43-.55 -.57 .20 -.6 5

-3.61 -3.09 -3.38 . . -2.991.91 1 .74 .32 .42

MM

Table 7. A

conti-nued

ta b le 7.4 continued

113

• • ’ • - • • . • • • 6 • in ••n i O o

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CU 1 F* I* F* 9 3D 4J *n r ' o tn* t in © Or

BP» <1 o* cv r> 6U

«• i •a 9 c in v CMo* Hj •M *y in m ■ar

UJ ir mm in fn CMmd mm r>cc< • • • • • ' • • • • • •

<r l mm o> a» CM a* Oi a» •f Or a» o O W *y a# r*» V

>* > 1 CM O' cu 0* o CM •n WJq: « 1 *• •D . 9 9 . •* JT

P« O- «• Fr «» F\ < c ;r 1 <> m mm in w\ CMr #«aU" • •' • • • • • • • ‘ • CD •

^ 1 v- w r* IT PV CP •ft; 1 CM 9 f i ** 90 flb CM m 9m *O* 1 r+ in m * ir «r o- «• CM ' ^w t pm <» c in <l: CM O V CM

o» <c #* W * \ V* «w4D at in ta in

. ** FI•»U - • • ' • 0 ♦ • • • • • •

» i «* i

«■ s' O' **O » «» P*•u C (/’. *•0« »4! tf\ M Of ^

. - » o

2 <*Z **— ■ *r■<1 M

• wf*> <«

• • • • • • • • • • CM •» m FI o •—\ in in F> F\ • a»

a. i Ch in Ft F> c aa » u. O. m CM in •n O (M «r •»94 1 F> au CM in 9 Oi

CM m mm in 9 in CM o +m , Ftin M 9 C «r m G

•• F>

• • • '' • • • • • • • in •9 Icu I (VI> I «•* I l»a;

m *(V *■m ‘Oin r- tr» » « ■“u, -5 ^ p M o

<*■ W - «* tv, ~ o „

in P. a*gi «■ o

U.' «. I to.o ^ i n2 o> I oy m i if,a: ■ ■ «*

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am ^C ^ (M» rv,~ * «u

r* sr*r «n Cm CM •

4, I h KI fti <1 O1 I to ft

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2 a. o o 1/*. 1/1u*

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a o> > Ui a. M M CL UJ O

FORECAST FOR: REFERENCE FORECASTSECTOR f t - i e ? e - r v 1 9 - e a e o - e i

1 0 1 AL GMP 2 . 3 J 3 . 2 1 1 . 74 2 . 4 4

6 0 V. F X P F N . 3 . 1 2 5 . 1 ? 1 . 9 * 4 . 4 3

v . i . i . o n P e r 2 . 0 » ? . 3 3 1 . I F 2 . 3 2

V . A . l . ON I NVESTMENTS 3 . 1 1 - • e<* 3 . 6 9 1 . 34

F. XPORTS > . 9 2 P . 5 9 4 . 9 6 7 . 4 4

PCF 3 , 4 2 2 . 2 d i ; « e 2 . 3 9

IMPORTS 3 . 5 9 i . t e 5 . 5 3 > . 2 5

I N V E N T . CHANGES - 1 3 . 0 6 5 1 . 5 6 - 1 2 . 2tJ 2 1 . U 9

P . O . F . . 2 2 ? . 6 > 2 . 2 4 . P 7

EMPLOYMENT .<>9 - . 2 2 . 0 5

NUM. OF HOURS P / k F F * - . 9 6 - . e u - . t o - . 6 2

OUTPUT 3 . 0 7 3 . 2 6 1 .CO 2 . 3 1

GROWTH RATES F O R I S l lP P A R Y T A B l F

e i - « 2 8 2 - e 3 8 3 - P 4 e q - e s

2 . >16 2 . 1 1 1 . 5 1 1 . 2 3

4 . >4 5 . 0 2 4 . t i e 4 . .14 .

? . 2 7 2 . 2 2 2 . 1 6 1 . 7 3

- 1 . 2 4 . 3 4 - . 9 2 1 . 9 0

7 . 6 3 5 . 9 5 3 .6 4 2 . 9 9

2.1<T 1 . 9 7 1 . 9 5 1 . 6 4

6 . e ? 5 . 6 P 4 . 8 0 4 . 2 9

i t . 4 4 1 2 . 7 4 1 5 . 2 7 - . I 7

- . 5 4 . 5 9 - • 1 : 5 1 . 2 6

. 3 0 . 3 " - . 0 7 - . 3 1 )

- . 5 5 — • 4 P - . 4 4 - . 3 9

2 . 9 1 2 . f 5 1 . 4 C 1 . 1 2

Table 7.4

continued

1.15

supply s id e , the Labor fo rc e increases s te a d ily by about 200,000 workers

per year. In t h is r e la t iv e ly high f ig u r e , we f in d the ta i I end o f the

post-war baby boom and an in c re a s in g number o f women. On the demand s id e ,

steady labor p ro d u c t iv ity increases and the recession in 1980, p lus

s lugg ish growth through the e a r ly 80 's make the demand fo r la bo r f a l l short

to match the supp ly , as can be seen in Table 7 .5 .

Table 7 .5 Labor Force and Employment Forecast, 1980 - 1985, in 1000

1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

Labor Force 22583 22798 22975 23180 23368 23561 23779 23892

Change +137 +215 +177 +205 +188 +198 +218 +113

T o ta l Empl. 21404 21450 21416 21433 21484 21538 21542 21495

Change +42 +46 -34 +17 +51 +54 +4 -47

Unemployment 1179 1348 1559 1747 1884 2023 2237 2397

Change +95 +169 +211 +188 +137 +139 +214 +160

These aggregate f ig u re s h id e , however, s e c to ra l d if fe re n c e s . The growth o f

employment in the se rv ice in d u s tr ie s , where p ro d u c t iv ity ga ins are low , is

not s u f f ic ie n t to balance the decrease in employment in the o the r se c to rs .

C o ns truc tio n , a t r a d i t io n a l ly la b o r- in te n s iv e in d u s try , has p a r t ic u la r ly

rap id labor p ro d u c t iv ity g a in s , re s u lt in g in a sharp decrease in

employment.

Turning our a t te n t io n to GNP, we f in d France to be a ffe c te d r e la t iv e ly

l i t t l e by the 1980 recess ion , having perhaps never recovered from the one

in 1975. The economy is s e t t l in g in to a low growth path and the fo re ca s t

to 1985 shows no tendency to depart from th a t pa th .

Let us now comment on the s e c to ra l fo re ca s ts d isp la ye d in Appendix

Table 15. Looking a t the output fo re c a s ts , i t is no s u rp r is e to f in d

sec to r 12, Iro n Ore M in ing , fa c in g a sharp d e c lin e . I t corresponds to the

progress ive d is c o n tin u a tio n o f ore e x tra c tio n in the o ld mines o f L o rra in e .

Since the domestic demand is found to be very s ta b le over the e a r ly

80*s , i t is la rg e ly fo re ig n trad e th a t w i l l determ ine the fa te o f the

various sectors o f the economy. Some secto rs are found to have a dram atic

increase in im p o rts , and a corresponding reduc tion in t h e ir dom estic

o u tp u t. Other s e c to rs , much less numerous, en joy sharp g row th , la rg e ly

supported by booming exp o rts .

T yp ica l o f the f i r s t ca tegory are some secto rs o f the e le c tro n ic and

t e x t i le in d u s tr ie s . Some re le va n t f ig u re s from the fo re c a s t are d isp layed

in Table 7 .6 . Im ports supply an in c re a s in g share o f dom estic demand.

Output decreases but exports in c rease . The in d u s try faces s trong

com petition on the domestic market and reschedules i t s p ro d u c tio n to

compensate by exports fo r the lo s t share o f the dom estic m arket. The

k n i t t in g in d u s try o f fe rs a p e rfe c t example o f t h is s tra te g y .

At the o the r extreme is secto r 30 , Ordnance and Ammunitions. As can

be seen in Table 7 .7 , exports are the d r iv in g fo rc e o f t h is s e c to r . The

same can be sa id o f secto r 35 , Household Equipment, a lthough the exports

fo re ca s t may look o v e ro p tim is t ic . Our assumptions a lso in c lu d e s ta b le

business investm ents. As a r e s u lt , sec to rs such as 27, Machine T o o ls , and

28, N o n -e le c tr ic a l In d u s t r ia l M achinery, stagnate th roughout the whole

fo re c a s t, even more so as fo re ig n com petition becomes more f ie r c e . Sector

29, C onstruction Equipment, is fo recasted to have a h igher ra te o f g row th ,

due as usual to in c rea s ing e xp o rts . A more s o p h is tic a te d model m ight have

y ie ld e d an even more o p t im is t ic fo re c a s t. From Table 7 .4 we f in d the

co n s tru c tio n in d u s try to have s trong labor p ro d u c t iv ity g a in s . Such gains

are l ik e ly to correspond to a s u b s t itu t io n o f c a p ita l fo r la b o r , and should

117

Table 7 .6 Forecast fo r Selected Sectors 1980 -

Sector 33 E le c tro n ic Equipment

1976 1980 1985

Exports 8359 11604 14267

Imports 8045 15063 31070*

Output 27388 27620 18229

Domestic Demand 35433 42683 49299

Exports / Output #30 .42 .78

Imports / Demand .22 .35 .63

Sector 53 K n it t in g

1976 1980 1985

Exports 2298 2648 3442

Imports 3162 3970 8961

Output 9662 9503 6630

Domestic Demand 12824 13473 15591

Exports / Output .23 .19 .51

Imports / Demand .24 .29 .57

be taken in to account by in c re a s in g the share o f the C ons truc tio n Equipment

row in the investm ent f lo w m a tr ix . Th is would o f course have re s u lte d in a

higher fo re ca s t fo r domestic demand.

In conc lus ion , two fea tu re s c h a ra c te rize th is re fe rence fo re c a s t: the

steady growth o f unemployment and the s tagna tion or d e c lin e o f most

in d u s t r ia l se c to rs . D e c lin ing secto rs were unable to s u b s t itu te exports

fo r the reduc tion o f t h e i r market share by fo re ig n co m pe titio n or the

sluggishness o f the domestic m arket. Th is fo re ca s t im p lie s a slow growth

o f tax income. Im p l ic i t in our p ro je c t io n o f the d isposab le income was the

118

Table 7 .7 Forecast fo r Sector 30: Ordnance

1976 1980 1985

Exports 3795 7429 14810

Imports 446 1066 1601

Output 8824 12326 20784

Domest i c Demand 5475 5963 7575

Exports / Output .43

oa .71

Imports / Demand • o 00 .17 .21

assumption th a t the government would keep e n fo rc in g a s t r i c t p o lic y aim ing

a t a balanced budget. However, in view o f the re s u lts o f the re fe rence

fo re c a s t, one may th in k th a t such p o lic y w i l l be eased to a llo w fo r

stronger growth o f the d isposab le income per ca p ita in the e a r ly 80*s . Our

v a r ia n t explores th is a lte rn a te assumption.

7 .2 V a rian t

At the end o f 1978, measures were implemented to reduce the d e f ic i t o f

the S oc ia l S e cu rity A d m in is tra tio n . The main p o in t was an increase o f

the s o c ia l s e c u r ity payments by in d iv id u a ls . The impact o f these measures

was evaluated as fo llo w s by the GAMA:

- .4 % in domestic output in 1979

-1.77% in domestic o u tp u t, cumulated e ffe c t to 1981

- .65% in domestic consumption in 1979

-1.58% in domestic consumption, cumulated e f fe c t to 1981.

In the v a r ia n t , we assume th a t no fu r th e r steps w i l l be taken by the

government to balance the S oc ia l S e cu rity A d m in is tra tio n budget. The above

f ig u re s were used to d e rive the corresponding new p ro je c tio n o f d isposab le

income. In the v a r ia n t , d isposab le income per cap ita w i l l be .65% h igher

119

than in the reference fo re c a s t in 1981, 1.9% h igher in 1983. t h is change

should a lso encourage investm ents. The GAMA eva luated th a t the 1979

measures induced a .49% drop in business investm ent in 1979, and a

cumulated drop o f ,69% in the fo llo w in g year. Table 7 .8 summarizes the

changes in assumptions re la t iv e to the re ference fo re c a s t. Summary re s u lts

are d isp layed in Table 7 .9 . The re s u lts a t the I/O le v e l can be found in

Appendix Table 16.

Table 7 .8 A lte rn a te Forecast: Changes in assumptions r e la t iv e to the

Reference Forecast (%)

1976 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

Disp. In c . 0. 0 . +.65 +1.3 +1.9 +2.6 +3.2

Investment 0. 0 . +.70 +.70 +.70 +.70 +.70

The d iffe re n c e in employment between the reference fo re c a s t and the v a r ia n t

is found to be almost 200,000 u n its . Such a decrease corresponds to a

s ta b i l iz a t io n o f the unemployment ra te . Th is is , however, l i k e ly to be an

overestim ated im pact, fo r a couple o f reasons:

-The model f a i l s to take in to account such e f fe c ts as the p r ic e increase

re s u lt in g from h igher wages and a la rg e r budget d e f i c i t . Th is p r ic e

increase would have two adverse e f fe c ts on GNP and employment: on one

hand i t would decrease exports and increase im ports due to the change in

re la t iv e p r ic e s , and on the o the r i t would reduce re a l d isposab le income

and th e re fo re p r iv a te consumption.

-The model does not re la te p ro d u c t iv ity ga ins to investm ents. However, i t

is l i k e ly th a t pa rt o f the investm ent induced by a tax cut w i l l be

devoted to the purchase o f la bo r-sa v ing equipment, which w i l l p a r t ly

o ve rr id e the unemployment decrease, a t le a s t in the short te rm .

This sketchy v a r ia n t u n d e rlin e s , however, th a t the budget d e f ic i t and

the p o lic y implemented to reduce i t should be a major issue in f lu e n c in g

French economic growth in the e a r ly 80f s . This v a r ia n t a lso suggests

needed a d d itio n s to the model in o rder to get a more r e a l is t i c p ic tu re o f

the economy. As a m atter o f conc lus ion , we w i l l present in the next

chapter some d ire c t io n s fo r fu r th e r work on the model.

1 Groupe d*Analyse Macroeconomique Appliqu£e, U n iv e rs ite de P a ris -X ,

N anterre , France.

-V 'SP.-if-,

SEC 1 0 F

AS IIf'FlTON^

r O M F C A S l f o k : S O C . S F C . TAX f i l l I N 19P1

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2 2 5 P 3 .■»•. 2 2 7 ? ? . ' : ' 2 2 9 7 5 . r V 2 1 1 f**» »0U 2 3 3 6 P . t 2 3 5 6 1 . 2 3 / 7 9 . 2 3 P 9 2 . G 0

7 7 4 « . 10 3 7 6 9 . 1 > 3 <? ' i 3 . 3 3 3 P J 7 . 6 7 ’ C 7 ? . . l ' » 3 1 9 f . 5 r» 3 9 1 1 . 1 I 3 9 3 . . 5'< 3 9 4 9 . 0 0

6 UIVTMPI OYMFN 1 11 1 «’ ) 9 P 9 . J J 1 J 7 9 . PI 1 3 4 « . P 5 1 5 5 3 . 3 ? 1 1 1 ^ . 1 1 I f i l 4 . 5 ** 1 91 1 . ? 7 2 ' ' P 2 , « 4 2 2 0 0 . 0 2

/ u f i r r . P i o y *' r w i R A i n » ) 4 . 4 3 5 . 2 ? 5 . 9 2 6 . 76 7 . 4 . 1 7 . 7 7 P »! 1 P . 7 6 . 2 1

11 FFOl l IJC Ar. R I C t L 1 . ! . ■'! u 1 . 1 » 1. 1 6 1 . ?1 l . ’ fc 1 . 1 . ^ 5 1 . 3 / 1 . 39

1 ? H V I 1 Y t H £ l i r , Y 1 . <■' ) . J ' 1 . 1 3 1 . 1 9 1 . 2 4 1 . 2 9 1 . 3 5 1 . 3 P 1 . 4 2

t -* TN n i ' S I P Y 1 . ) 0 1 . l n 1. 1 6 » . ?1 ! . ? 6 1 . 3 1 J . 3 5 1 . 3 / 1 . 4 0

14 t o n s ') p . 1 . J 1 . 1 1 1 . I t 1 . 2 ? 1 . 2 7 ) . 3 3 1 • 1 9 1 . 4 5 1 . 5 2

1 *5 <ER V/1 r F c I . U' 1 . , ! 4 1 . J 7 1 . a P 1 . 1 * 1 . 1 ! 1 . 1 2 1 . 1 4 I . 15

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6 u w r M r t o y k f n i j k c m 9 . 2 2 1 4 .3 ? 1 5 . 1 6 l i l . 4P

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11 p p o n u r « s r i r u i 1 . 5 . 5 3 4 . 3 9 3 . 9 3 4 . 4 4

1? l f W I l Y r f i F Rf i V 5 . ; I ? . I f ! 5 . 35 4 . 26

1 ? I w n i i s i R v «i . 7 * 6 . r p 4 .1 P 3 . 9P

1 <l TOM < 1R. 5 . 46 * . It- 4 . 5 I 4. 54

1 5 ^ F R V I CFS 2 . 1 1 2 . 9 T . P 7 1 . 5 6

I f FMPLf l Y f t f iRI Ct l 1. 3H - . 44 - 2 . I d - 1 . *'5

1 J WTNi r f !ERr ,Y - . 9 6 - . 2 P - 3 . 2 9 _ 2 . 1>'<

1 » I Nn i J^ l R Y - 1 .31? - . * 1 - 1 . 5 P - . 5 4

1 9 CON S I R . - 2 . 9 3 - 1 . H I - 2 . H 6 - 2 . 6 5

?;• SFRvM c f s 1 t . 3 P 1 . M 1 . 5 6

r ,POUTH RATFS FOR: ft SSWHPT I QMS

P I - I * ? P? -P 3 P 7 - P 4 P 4 - » 5

. 4 ' * .*1' . 4 * ,4'12 . P 5 2 . 9 1 2 . P 4 2 . 2 1

. « ! . P 3 .=>3 . 4 0

* 5 0 , * :0 . 5 .» . 4 ?

5 . 1 4 5 .3 6 P • !*4 5 .< 3

' 4 . f i 9 4 «5'» 7 . 9 5 5 . 1 3

3 . 2 ° 3 . 4 6 I .4 4 1 . * ?

4 . 6 3 4 . i ' 7 2 . 2 4 3 . »n

7 . 5 6 ? . " 3 1 .4 f* 1 . 9 2

4 . 5 1 4 . 6 1 4 . 5 3 <1 . 5 P

. 9 ? . 7 1 1 .< 2 J . 2 9

- . 6 P - . 6 » .J>0 ' 5

- 2 .5«l -2 .2 4 -1 . 4 2 -1 . 16

- . 3 7 - . 4 1 . 7 1 - .4 J

- 3 . 5 6 - 3 . i ’ 5 - 3 . 3 3 - 2 . 7 4

2 . 1 9 .6 4 . 1 3

toK3

Table 7.9

continued

F O R r c A « i p o h : s o c . s r c . 1 AX CHI 1 M 1 9f» 1

>p 1 9 / 6 19 |P 1 4 ) 9 1 9 P?1

i n i ai n n p t * ? 6 5 2 / • I * 15 62 3 . 1 4 * 1 * ^ . 1 4 P 8 1 2 2 .

ROW. r x p r N . 6 M 36 7 • 6 * 4 4 4 . 71 I I 1? . ? 5 5 ? i .

V . a . i . on p c f 1 3 H 4 J *1• 1 4 4 1>* 7. 14 1 4 5 8 . 1 5. J117 p .

V . A . l . ON I h W E S H ' T N l S I f . .6 • 1 7s 16 . I 6 P <? . 1

E KP 0R 1S ’ 1 9 4 5 4 • 3 6 9 2 9 1 . 4 ‘j 1 i ! 3 . 4 2 j 9 | 6 .

p e r P 9P 2 2 5 ° . 1 ' 42 i< i . J» V *» l ;P .

i M P O i n * ; ’ 4 4 2 3 J • 3 6 9 * / 5 . 3 9 / I 4 r i . 4 ? 1 j M .

I N t f C N l . rf»«Nr,p<; 2 ( 6 2*1 • 1 5 5 t " < . 2 ? 6 1 4 . 2 i l l ? .

p . n . r . *4 78 } • • 34 9 4 3 4. 3*:P 76 9 . 36 7 8 4 5 .

EMPLOYMENl j 4 i 19 • 1 4 9 1 5 . 14 ? 2 <i . 142 12.

MUM. OF HOURS P / t T f > 4 i . 9 • 1 . 1 4 t . 1 4T .*5

0 1 1PI 1 2 6 ' 3 3 * 2 • 2P294 8 4. 2 9 ? 1 59 1. 2 9 7 1 2 2 4 .

s rw i r s : s u i ^ a u r i ami r

1 ©PI 1 9p? 1 9P » 1 9P4 1 9H5

1 5 .J PU 2 i 1 5 6 ’ ? 51 . 16* • • 76 . 16 2 P 4 1 6 . 16 5 2 6 2 9 ,

Ik f t 1 • E26 M . P6 749 . 9 1 2P9 . 94 0 ^ 0 ,

J 5 396 8 . 1 5 “ ; 3 6 . 16 2 1 4 ' * . i 6 6 ? 6 e . 16 77 7 9

1 / 9 ? | . 1 7 7 . i f . 1 7 } / 1 . 17 6 1 6 . 1 7 9 40 ,

4 52231 . 4P6 71 9 . 5 1 5 6 8 » . 5 3 4 4 6 2 . 5 5 04 16

1 ' 5 * 81*6 . 1 i * 7 7 ^ t i - . I l l 36 3 7 . 1 13'. <?96 . 1 1 5 4 0 1 9

4 5 1 4 1 | . 4 P3 2 6 3 • 5 1 1 * 4 2 . 536 99 1. 56 09 I 1

2 5 1 0 5 . 2 92 31 . 3 2 9 5 5 . 3 / 9 8 P . 3 7 9 6 0

3 1242 7. 37?>4i>3. 3 7 2 597 . 3 7 2 3 7 ! • 3 7 7096

1 4 2 2 9 . 1 4 3 ^ 2 . 14 3 7 8 . 14 4 ) 3 . 14 3 94

4 . 2 4C: . ' 39 .P 39 .6 2 9 . !

3 " 4 6 786 * 3 1 1 4 P 2 e . 3 1 8 5 6 3 7 . 323 7 79? . 3 2 8 17 37

IN»03

i

TabLe 7.9

con

tinu

ed

n . n ^ r a c i p o r : s n c .

S l f l O M 7 < - / H

1 0 1 At GNI* 3 . 2

g o v / . r v F - r f j .

v . \ . 1. 0*.' P P F 1

t f . A . i . o n i r w F S i f i r r n s ? . i i

F * P 0 R 1 S

»'cr ..n^ irPdinsi N t / ^ N i . r H f t ' j n r * - 1 j .

n .n .r .

F " P L o y m f m 1 . i n

M H . OF P M J F f * - . I f

o u i p i n » . j

. l a x c u i f n 1 9P 1

I P - ! 9 1 9 - P e. - P I m -v?

* . ? / 1 .P 2 . f 9

*? .1 7 1 . 9 ? * ! . * » ’ i . n

? 1 1 . »»• ? . 5 9 ? . t n

- . P I « . ? 1 .9<J - 1 . ’’ 5

1 . 9£ / . 11 7. f 3

? . 2 1 1 . P P ^ . 7 ? 2 .*.<1

7 . * P 5 9 7 .1 *» 7 .

5 » . 5< 2 1 . . 9 1 f.1 1? . # 7 i» . 5 7 1 . 2 5 - . 5 1

. '>9 t P . 1 ? . 51

- . m ? - . * 2 - . 5 5

' . ? < r 1 . 7 * 2 .5*1 2 . 2 ’

h p o w t h m « t f s f o r : c i i p h a r y i a n i f

P2 - P 1 P ’ - P I P 1 - P5

i . * 7 1 . 7 7 1 . 1 9

c- . t 2 1 .«' P 1 . 1 1

2 . A 2 . ^ 1 ■>.11

. 3 / - . 9 ? » . 9 ’

« . 95 ? . A 1 2 .

? .*1? 2 . 1 ? 2 . 1 1r #, . C 1 . 1 / 1 . 1 5

1 2 . 71 1 * . > / - . 1 7

. 5 9 - . ' fr 2 . 2 7

. 5 3 .1 / - . i t

- . I P - . 1 1 - . 3 9

2 . 2 7 1 .# 1 1 . ? /

to-t'

Table 7.9

continued

Chapter V I I I

F urther Developments o f the Model

8-1 Developments o f the c o n s ta n t-p ric e model 8-2 Developments o f the wage-price model

We w i l l f i r s t consider improvements to be made to the re a l s ide model,

then d iscuss more tho rough ly an aspect o f the p r ic e model-

8-1 Developments o f the c o n s ta n t-p ric e model

The running o f the re a l s ide has revealed severa l shortcom ings o f the

model- B ehaviora l equations fo r changes in in v e n to r ie s and investm ents are

o f course needed- They w i l l cut down the leng thy l i s t o f assumptions we

had to make and w i l l add to the model some dynamic o f i t s own- A lso , a

f u l l - s c a le investm ent f lo w m a trix should be used to convert the investm ent

fo recas ted by in d u s try in to demand fo r investm ent goods a t the I/O le v e l.

To take advantage o f the tim e se rie s o f in p u t-o u tp u t ta b le s from 1970 to

1978, c o e f f ic ie n t changes should be estim ated fo r the main in p u ts : energy

and raw m a te r ia ls - The labor p ro d u c t iv ity should somehow be re la te d to

investm en t, s ince we have seen th a t a s ize ab le p a rt o f investm ent spending

is devoted to la bo r-sa v ing equipment. F in a l ly , the equations fo re c a s tin g

the length o f the work week, which on ly in c lu d e a tim e tre n d , should be

given some economic con ten t.

8 .2 Developments to the wage-price model

Much work is obv ious ly needed here, s ince the p r ic e model is fo r now

an empty framework, t o t a l ly deprived o f economic con ten t. We do not in tend

to present a f u l l d iscuss ion o f the beh av io ra l equations to in c lu d e in i t ,/

but w i l l ra th e r concentra te on a s in g le p o in t : the fo re c a s t o f the labor

co s t- In the f i r s t p a r t , we consider the computation o f the wage ra te .

Th is se c tio n draws e x te n s iv e ly from Professor Raymond C ourb is ' work^-

The fo re c a s t o f the o the r labor cost components is then presented.

Forecast o f the wage, indexes by in d u s try

With respect to the wage le v e l, one can d is t in g u is h two groups o f

in d u s tr ie s ^ ;

A f i r s t group inc ludes such in d u s tr ie s as t e x t i le s , c lo th in g , wood

products and c o n s tru c tio n - Such in d u s tr ie s are ch a rac te rized by abundant,

ra th e r u n s k ille d manpower- Wages are below average and u n io n iz a tio n l ig h t .

We expect the jo b market s itu a t io n to have a sh o rt-te rm in flu e n c e on the

wage le v e l in such in d u s tr ie s .

A second group inc ludes h e a v ily concentrated in d u s tr ie s - Wages are

h igher than average, the work fo rc e is s k i l le d and ra th e r s ta b le ,

u n io n iz a tio n is h igh . The jo b market is expected to have l i t t l e sho rt-te rm

in flu e n c e on wages in th is group. S tee l p roduc ts , g lass and chemical

m anufacturing belong to t h is group.

Of course, th is c la s s if ic a t io n is on ly v a l id fo r sh o rt-te rm e f fe c ts .

In the m id -te rm , wages in a p a r t ic u la r secto r are dependent upon wages in

the o th e r se c to rs . J *S y lv e s tre ^ s tud ied the 'wage c y c le s ' and showed

th a t the long-te rm s tru c tu re o f in te r in d u s t ry r e la t iv e wages is s ta b le .

W ith in a wage c y c le , a f te r a ra p id growth o f wages and widening o f the

range o f wages, low-wage in d u s tr ie s tend to make up fo r the d iffe re n c e

w h ile high-wage in d u s tr ie s slow down the growth o f t h e ir wage ra te s . The

unenployment ra te th e re fo re in flu e n ce s the wage ra te in both groups:

d ir e c t ly in group 1 (unemployment -> wages), in d ir e c t ly in group 2

(unemployment -> wages in group 1 -> average wage -> wages in group 2 ) .

What v a r ia b le should be used as a measure o f the job market s itu a t io n ?

126

In h is s tu d y , S y lves tre used:

u = D ~ 0 C8.1jN

where

D = number o f re g is te re d unemployed

0 = job vacancies

N = labor fo rce

According to Keynes, the re la t io n s h ip between the wage le v e l and the

ra te o f unemployment is n o n -lin e a r in the v ic in i t y o f f u l l employment.

P h i l l ip s ' e m p ir ic a l work suggested th a t th is re la t io n s h ip was n o n -lin e a r at

any p o in t . Courbis reproduced S y lv e s tre 's study using a n o n -lin e a r

unemployment v a r ia b le :

d = -2. 0 C8.210

With the v a r ia b le d , the job market is s t i l l found to be a sho rt-te rm

s ig n if ic a n t v a r ia b le only in some in d u s t ie s . However the c la s s if ic a t io n

happens to be d if fe r e n t from S y lv e s tre 's : namely, such in d u s tr ie s as g lass

and machine to o l m anufacturing are now found to belong to the f i r s t group,

where the in flu e n c e o f the job market s itu a t io n is a s ig n if ic a n t v a r ia b le .

The v a r ia b le d is not re a d ily a v a ila b le from the re a l s ide o f the model.

From the employment b loc o f the model, we know:

where

EMPT = t o ta l employment

N = labor fo rce

We do not know D or 0. S a la is^ showed th a t the re is a very good

128

D = a + b U C8.43t t

I f we assume th a t the job vacancies, 0 , and the unemployment ra te , U, are

n e g a tiv e ly c o r re la te d :

0 = c + e U e < 0t t

then

d = J I .T -9 . = —2— I — £— * (b ~ e) u [ 8.530 c + e U

so th a t d is estim ated as a n o n -lin e a r fu n c t io n o f U. Courbis uses d as

the unemployment v a r ia b le in P h i l l ip s type equa tions.

Computation o f the labor cost

From Chapter 6 , sec tion 2 , we remember th a t the labor cost is computed

by m u lt ip ly in g the labor cost index by the cu rre n t year C0NPRIVAW0. In

t h is se c tio n we describe how a labor cost index by in d u s try could be

computed.

The labo r cost is made up o f two components: the labor cost o f wage

earners and the one o f non-wage earne rs. The f i r s t component is by la rge

the most im p o rta n t. The labor cost o f wage earners can be fo recas ted in

th ree s teps , fo llo w in g the method used by the INSEE in i t s annual survey o f

labor c o s ts .^

1. E s tim a tion o f hourly cost o f workers paid by the hour and e s tim a tio n o f

monthly cost o f worker paid by the month

2. Adjustment o f the hou rly cost fo r change in the length o f the work week

3. Computation o f an index o f labor cost o f wage earners by w e igh ting the

two cos ts .

The next two steps then lead to the aggregate labor cost index:

f i t between D and U:

129

4 . Computation o f the Labor cost index o f non-wage earners and aggregation

o f the two indexes

5 . Adjustment o f the aggregate Labor cost index fo r p ro d u c t iv ity g a in s .

Let us comment on step 1:

To compute the hou rly cost o f workers paid by the hour, we must f i r s t

estim ate an index o f the wage ra te , then in co rp o ra te supplements and the

em ployer's c o n tr ib u tio n to s o c ia l s e c u r ity - We use fo r the wage ra te the

index o f hou rly wage ra tes fo r workers 18 and above. Supplements in c lu d e

e xcep tiona l bonuses and paid h o lid a ys .

E xcep tiona l bonuses were 5% o f the bas ic wage ra te in 1972 and 1977;

la ck in g more in fo rm a tio n , they can be assumed to keep th is p ro p o rt io n over

t im e .

Paid h o lid a y payments were 13% o f the bas ic wage in 1977. Since the

work week gets s h o r te r , these payments are spread over fewer working hours.

This r a t io should th e re fo re be ad justed fo r changes in the work week.

The em ployer's c o n tr ib u tio n fo r s o c ia l s e c u r ity makes up 75% o f the

o the r labo r c o s ts . They could be fo re cas te d a l l to ge the r as a sim ple

fu n c t io n o f the bas ic wage.

Th is d e s c r ip t io n was in tended to i l lu s t r a t e how b eh av io ra l equations

fo r value-added components would f i t in to the p r ic e model framework. This

framework is indeed general enough to accomodate many s p e c if ic cases. As

we mentioned in beg inn ing th is s tudy , the SLlMFORP program is in tended to

serve as a s ta r t in g p o in t fo r associa ted in s t i tu te s c o n s tru c tin g models o f

t h e ir own economies. The present study has developed two fe a tu re s th a t

make the system f i t a v a r ie ty o f cases:

- In the re a l s id e , the method o f accounting fo r the trade margins can be

used to d e r iv e a homogeneous ta b le from any ta b le in producer p r ic e s .

using e x c lu s iv e ly in fo rm a tio n found in the ta b le i t s e l f .

In the p r ic e model, by a llo w in g the va lue added a t the I/O le v e l to draw

from va riou s value-added account c a te g o rie s , we have b u i l t in to the model

a way to deal w ith accounting d iffe re n c e s between the two

c la s s if ic a t io n s . In the French and the US case, and c e r ta in ly in many

o th e rs , the I/O accounts are in a product base, w h ile the value-added

accounts are in an in d u s try base. The s tru c tu re o f the p r ic e model

enables one to ca rry a l l the value-added computations in the o r ig in a l

c la s s i f ic a t io n , so th a t fo re ca s ts are d i r e c t ly comparable to pub lished

h is to r ic a l da ta . Then the necessary re a llo c a t io n s are made in o rder to

get the va lue added by I/O secto r on a product base.

In A p r i l 1980, th is model was tra n s fe re d to the GAMA, in P a r is , who

w i l l undertake fu r th e r development o f the model.

130

131

1 Raymond C ourb is, Competjti v i t § e t Croissance en Economie Concurrencee,

Dunod, 1975, Chapter 3 , 'D e te rm in a tion des S a la ire s '.

2 Jo Sy L vest re , La Dynami que des Sa la i res. Nomi naux. en France,, Etude

S e c to r ie l le , Revue Economique V o l. X X II, no. 3 , 1971.

3 J . S y lv e s tre , ib id .

4 Sa la i s , Mesure de I 'In f lu e n c e du Niveau des Demandesd'EmpLoiNpn

S a tis fa i t es sur le Rappo r t e n tre Popula t io n A c tive a la Recherche

d 'un Emploi e t Demande d'Em ploi Non S a t is fa i te s , INSEE, 1970.

5 N. B o re I, E vo lu tio n Recente des Couts S a la r ia u x , Economie e t

S ta t is t iq u e , no 85, 1977.

Inpu t-O u tpu t Sector T it le s

Appendix Table 1

1 Agri c u ltu re

2 S y lv i c u ltu re

3 Peche

4 H o u il le , L ig n ite

5 C okefaction

6 P § tro le B rut

7 Gaz Nature I

8 P e tro le R a ffine

9 E le c t r ic i t y D is tr ib u te

10 Gaz D is t r ib u t

11 Eau e t Chauffage Urbain

12 M inerai de Fer

13 S id e ru rg ie

14 P rodu its de I 'A c ie r

15 M inera is Non Ferreux\\ijs Metaux Non Ferreux

Mineraux D ivers

'18I M ateriaux de C onstruction

119 Verre •

20 Chimie M inera le

/ 21 Chimie Organique

\2 2 Parachim ie

23 P rodu its Pharmaceutiques

24 Fonderi e

Agri c u ltu re

F orestry

Fi shery

Coal

Coke

Crude O il

N atu ra l Gas

Petroleum R e fin ing

E le c tr ic U t i l i t i e s

Gas U t i l i t i e s

Water and Heating Services

Iro n Ore

S tee l

S tee l Products

Non-Ferrous Ores

Non-Ferrous Ores

M iscellaneous M etals

C onstruc tion M a te ria ls

Glass

Non Organic Chemicals

Organic Chemicals

M iscellaneous Chemical Products

Drugs

Casting

133

I t

ir

f i -lS rifv '

te*-

f t -, ■»-

■%{4} ’

25 T ra v a il des Metaux

26 Machines A g rico les

27 Machines O u tils

28 Equipement Indust r i e l

29 M a te r ie l Travaux P ub lic

30 M a te r ie l d*Armement

31 Machines de Bureaux

32 M a te r ie l E le c tr iq u e

33 M a te r ie l E lec tron ique P ro fess ionne l

34 M a te r ie l E lec tron ique Menager

35 Equipement Menager

36 Vehicu les Automobiles

37 M a te rie l F e rro v ia ire

38 C onstruc tion Navale

39 C onstruc tion Aeronautique

40 Instrum ents & M a te rie l de P re c is io n

41 Viandes

42 L a it & P rodu its Lai t ie r s

43 Conserves-a

44 Pain e t P a tis s e r ie

45 P rodu its du Grain

46 Corps Gras A lim en ta ires

47 Sue re

48 Autres P rodu its A lim en ta ires

49 Boissons e t A lcoo ls

50 Tabac

51 F i ls e t F ibres A r t i f i c ie ls

Metal Stamping

A g r ic u ltu ra l Machinery

Machine Tools

In d u s t r ia l Equipment

C onstruc tion Equipment

Ordnance

O ffic e Equipment

E le c t r ic a l Equipment

In d u s t r ia l E le c tro n ic Equipment

Household E le c tro n ic Equipment

Household Appliances

Automobiles

R a ilroad Equipment

Ship B u ild in g

A irc ra f ts

Measuring Instrum ents

Meat

M ilk and D a iry Products

Canned Food

Bread and P a s trie s

Cereals

Fats and O ils

Sugar

M iscellaneous Food Products

Beverages

Tobacco

A r t i f i c a l Yarn

7 T

134

52 F iIs e t F ile s Thread

53 Bonneteri e K n it t in g

54 Ouvrages en F ile s M iscellaneous T e x t ile s

55 C u irs e t Peaux Skins and Leathers

56 A r t ic le s en Cuir Leather Products

57 Chaussures Shoes

58 Habillem ent Apparel

59 P rodu its du Bois Wood Products

60 Meubles F u rn itu re

61 P a p ie r, Carton Paper and Cardboard

62 Presse, Im prim erie , E d it io n P r in t in g and P u b lish in g

1 63 Pneumatiques T ire s

64 P rodu its en P las tiqu e P la s t ic Products

i- 65 In d u s tr ie s Diverses M iscellaneous In d u s tr ie s

1 66 Batiment e t Genie C iv i l C ons truc tion

1-67 Recuperation Scraps

1 68 Commerce Commerce

169 Reparation Automobile Auto Repair

i . 70 Reparation D iverses M iscellaneous Repairs

71 H o te ls , Cafes e t Restaurants H o te ls , Eating and D r in k ii

'it 72 Transports F e rro v ia ire s R a ilroad T ra n sp o rta tio n

3f'73 Transports R outie rs de Marchandises Trucking

5-, 'y$-.

74 Autres Transports T e rre s tre s Other Land T ra n sp o rta tio n^ ’ * 75 N av iga tion In te r ie u re Waterway T ra n sp o rta tio ni \ ■ .j : 76 Transports Mari times Sea T ra n sp o rta tio n

77 Transports Aeriens A ir T ra n sp o rta tio n

135

78 Services A u x il ia ire s

des T ransports

79 Telecommunications

80 Services aux E n trep rises

81 Loca tion e t C re d it-B a il

82 Logement

83 C re d it-B a il Im m ob ilie r

84 Enseignement

85 Sante

86 Autres Services Marchands

87 Assurance

88 Services F inanc ie rs

M iscellaneous T ra n s p o rta tio n

Servi ces

Telecommuni ca tions

Business Services

Renting and Leasing

Housing

Housing Loans

Education Services

Health Services

Other Services

Insurance

Banking Services

136

Employment and Value-Added In d u s tr ie s

1 A g r ic u ltu re , S y lv ic u ltu re

Pec he

2 Viandes, P rodu its L a i t ie r s

3 Autres P rodu its

A lim en ta i res

4 Combustibles Mineraux

Solides

5 P e tro le , Gas

6 E le c t r ic i t e , Gaz, Eau

7 Mineraux e t Metaux Ferreux

8 Mineraux e t Metaux

Non-Ferreux

9 M a ttr ia u x de C onstruction

10 Verre

11 Chimie de Base

12 Parachim ie

13 Fonderie

14 C onstruc tion Mecanique

15 M a te rie l E le c tr iq u e

16 Equipement Menager

17 Automobiles

18 C onstruc tion Navale

19 T e x t ile

20 Cuir

21 B o is , Meubles

A g r ic u ltu re ,F o re s try

Fishery

Meat, D a iry Products

Other Food Products

Coal, Coke

Crude O i l , N a tu ra l Gas

P ub lic U t i l i t i e s

Ferrous Ores and Metals

Non-Ferrous Ores and Metals

C onstruc tion M a te ria ls

Glass

Chemi cats

M iscellaneous Chemicals

Casting

Mechanical C onstuction

In d u s t r ia l E le c t r ic a l Equipment

Household Equipment

Automobiles

Ship B u ild in g

T e x t ile

Leather Products

Wood and F u rn itu re

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

137

P a p ie r, Carton

Presse, E d it io n

Caoutchouc, P las tiqu e

Batiment

Commerce

Reparation Automobile

H o te ls , Cafes, Restaurants

Transports

Tel6communi c a t i ons

Services aux E n trep rises

Services aux P a r t ic u l ie rs

L o c a tio n , Credi t -B a iI

Iiranobi l i e r

Assurances

Services F inanc ie rs

Paper and Cardboard

P r in t in g and P ub lish in g

P la s t ic and Rubber Products

C onstruc tion

Commerce

Auto Repair

H o te ls , Eating and D rin k ing Places

T ra n sp o rta tio n

Telecommuni ca tions

Business Services

Personal Services

Renting and Leasing

Insurance

Banking Services

i

v a l u e A n n r n t a x r o t u r i o w

r i T L L HIGH i M i r

1 »<jR i r u i t i i r t2 SYLV IC I I L TIJRf3 PECHE4 H O U I L L t » L i r , N I T T , AGGLO^FRFS5 c o k e f a t t i o n6 Pf. TROLE IIT7 GA? NATHRFL* PtTROLF R AFF11\| f 9 E L E C T R I f l T F n i S T R T P I I F F

1 ' R A 2 0 1 S T R I p 11F11 f A U FT CHAHFF *GF URPAJN12 M J M f R A I f lF FF R13 S 1 0 F R U G I f 1*1 Pf tOO. nc l * A C | F 915 M N E » A | S MON F f H ^ n i X16 M t l M J X 40.N t f r r f i i x17 m i n e r a u x n i v r rs18 M A I F R . OF rONTRUCTTON19 VFRRE2 > C H I M L * I N r R # L p ?1 CMI f i l l O R C A N I Q u f 2 2 P A R A T h l M I F21 P R O m i l T S PH *RMACFUT I 0 U F 5 ?« FONOFRIFS ?S 1KA V* 11 r>rs METAUX26 MACHINES A H R i r O L F S27 MACHIWLS Oi l T I L S28 EQUIPMFNT 1 f lDUSTR I F I29 m a t e r i e l m t p s3 » MATERIEL n*ARMF«lFfJT3 1 m a c h i n e s n r r i i r f a i i32 MATERIEL F L r c T H I Q U F33 KAT ERI CL f LFT TRONlOt IF P ROTF SS I34 MATERIEL f l f p T RONIQI IF MFNAGFR35 E O U l P L f E M PFNAG r R36 v t m r i j i . F s A i n o n o n r i r s37 Ma T E R I L L F F R P O V I A I R F ROIJLANT3 8 CONSTRUCTION ' M V A L F 39 CONSTK. A r R O N A H T I O I i r 1 ' I ■JST91JMFNTS ET M ATF RI FL n r PHF4 1 V l ANULS42 L A 1 T LT P R O n | j [ T S L A f T I F R S4 3 c o n s e r v e s44 P A I N t T P A T l S S F R I F M5 PRODUITS DH GRAIN16 CORPS GRAS A L I M F N T A I R F S H7 SUCRE«*« *UTRCS PROH. A L M F M T A I R F * ;4 9 BOISSONS FT ALCOOLS5 1 T ARACS FT PROO.51 F I I S C T F I P R F S A R T T F T f T F L S FT52 F I L S ET F I L F S53 HONNETERIT 5A OIJVRAGE Ff j F I LE ' S55 CU1 RS I. T PF AUX5 6 A H T I C L I S r M TH 1 H57 CH* I ISSIIRp S *8 H A 4 11. L E " T rJ T 59 PROD UU P O I S6 i MtUHLLS 61 P A P I C r t , r A R TON6 2 . P R t S St » I HP RI MF « I f , F n j t j o N 6 3 PNE' I IMA T I 0 U r S 6« P R OD . PL A S T I Q U F S 6 5 I NDI IS TR I F S D I V E R S E6 6 B A T I **t N T FT G F f J i r (• f v I L67 P L C I I P L R A T I O M68 COJ'Mf RCF69 WtPARATl OM AUTOnOPTLF * i / ,q 7> REPARATION n | V F R S f « ;71 HOTELS. CAF f , »?F S TAI lh a r a . ' 7 0T"3 TRANSI* F F ' < f) V I ' R r S -> .

LOU 9 ATF RSO 1 9 7 * VAI HF CONSTRA I NFf)•76

•'•53 150 192 > i Vif'M '2 28 1 7 ' '1 5 7 ’» |0

AV TRA RF V A L I I F FOR AV ^ RA GF t f A L l i r FOR. '■'■"I .VIA

. 2 4 *

. 19U

. 1 6 0AVFRAGF V 4 LU* - POR

.3119.

. 1 6 2

. 1 6 0

. 1 9 3

. ’’ 9B• 1 7*'. 1 65 . 1 6 1 . 1 0 2 . » n . 1 6 1 . ?4 3 . * 3 «. 2 1 1. 1 4 6. ’ 11. '79 . 1 9 !. t 7 ^. ' 53 . '5 8 . ' 56 . >76 . 1 6 5 . ' 6 «. “ 6 6 . t >6 . 1 1 9 . 64 . — ,n. 1 3 7 . 1 4 4 . * 59* ' nIiu?. i m. 1 4 7 . ?o*>. ! <t 7 -• 5 6 7 . 1 5 ".?• '. 1 6 ^. t n?. »2*

. " 5 4 . MB * 1 9 7 9 .

. * 1 " . 86 2 5 . ♦. 8 3 7 2 2 9 .

. I f . 99 2 ’ * •7 .• 96 ^ 1 3 .

I ' t . 1 •” » 0 .r, . , . , o n 0 .. a i n 6 4 6 2 .. i f»f . 9 6 2 ? r « 9 .

. 1 l ’» . 994 7 7 1 .' in'> . 9 MP 24 1 .

. • . ) >’ ■ 0 .HIGH AND LOW RATE* R FS i n i JA l A L I o r A T F DHIGH AND LOU RATE, RESIDUAL A L 1 OCATEO. ' n ' 0 .. ' M ' » . 0 7 3 1 3 3 .. •") t .93*» 41 .. *4 ' . 9 7 5 4 B 3 . •

. 9<) fl 2 6 2 .HIGH AMO LOU RATE# RE S I n i l A1. AL IOCATEn

Hi . 9 3 6 12 0 .. 99 7 21 6 5 .. • t l j ' i . 9 P 7 3 7 6 4 .. \ *'• . 9 9 6 41 .

."1411 . 6 4 ^ 0 1 6 .. n n . 990 6 7 6 . *. n . i j . 9 2 3 7 5 .

. 73Q 2 15. *. o i o . 7 7 5 3 ^ 4 . ♦

>).. 9 9 7 1 2 1 7 .

. ">39 . 9 7 1 B 3 2 .. 9 7 4 1 B 6 B . *. 9 9 7 254^1. *

• Cn i ’ • 9B3 1 5 6 9 .. 1 3 9 . 99B 7 ; * 1 7 .

. ■.!«>-1 0 .. 96' * 1 6 4 .

. ,'B9 . B 2 ? ’ 53 .• '>6 9 . 9 9 9 1 3 1 5 .. . 8 3 5 2 4 0 4 .. ' )<> . 9 6 7 1 2 1 7 .n '- •> . 9 9 0 374 .,’ l t l . 6 ' 6 7 2 2 .

. 9 6 * 9 - 5 .. '1 »'* . 9 6 B 1 7 7 .. i •''i . 8 6 7 94 .. ID' . . 9 5 6 1 1 6 3 .. f»m . 9 9 5 1 ? 9 " .. 1 ) f l 1 . i n 5 8 5 .*',r" r.. ' • » • B 78 1 1 4 .' l ' •» . 6 5 5 14 1 .. \ l>. •! '■r' . 9«»? 1 2 1 0 .

91 7 4 7 3.*. ■! 1'. • f l l * 1 ^61 .. 1 ’ ' . 786 3 9 c»2.■1 ■ II - . i r ? 6 79 .. I' t . 0 7 3 1« 4 6 1 . *

. b 7 0 f l ^5 .. 1 1 ’ . ? 7 ' 1 F»62.. * ‘ ' . O 0 T >1 ” .

4 6 6 .. " *t . 9 0 T 3 6 5 6 . *. * 9 2 1 Rr^ | ., \ • i . 7 . 9 0 0

1 .; « * 6 . *

• ' ' ' . 6 O'--. ^ c. H .. 9 1’ 1 ? ( r' .

. ‘ * 1 . (,71

Appendix Table

2 Value

- Added

Tax Equati

71 T M N S P P O I J T i r ? S HK H AR CH &N 0 I S*" A V r l< * RF V ®L Ur FOR **IGM a ' i n LOU R A T f ,7<| Al l T PC S TRAMSP T F W R F M N F S .1*16

A V ^ R ' G F V * L » ) r. O ' r , • 9 9 f

7S N A V I G A T I O N I N T r R TFU R F F O * M IR H a n d LOU RAT F.»7 h TRANSPORTS M A RI T TMF5- • ^ 1 9 . >'111 •77 Trt ANSPOR TS A F R I T N S . 1 B 7 . v y i • 978 SEP V I Cl S A11X 1 1. I A TKFS f>F TRANSP . 2 ? ° • 9 ‘j f t79 T L L F r o r i ? * UNI C A T I O N S ■ » 7 1fl > S E R V I C E AUX F ^ TRr PRT S FS . >5*i • 9 8 ?R1 L O C A T I O N ET C R C D I T - M R HOP IL I AVFRARF V A L UF FOR H l f i M A NP LOU RA T E »92 L O G E ^ E N l . » • ? . 1 )' ) 1 . i i nft]! C R E O I T - P A I l I MHO P T L I F N f l V T R A n r V A L UF FOR MTFM A Nfl LOU RATE*BU E N S E 1 6 N E H F N T ( M ARC HAND ) . 1 2 1 . 11 i ♦ 3 7 9ftf i SANTE . 1 1 ? . "Of * • 9 9186 " U T R E S s f h v i c f s m a r c h a n o s . ' * 7 5 9 61fl 7 A S S U P A h CF S . n r >n •

P E s m t j f l i f t u o r a i r n t o n n y . ^ x p .992 .» F S i n i i M A I . I O C A T F O T " r , n v . F X P .

5 .1 ' 2.3 7 1 .2.H9 I, *

P F S i n u A L A L t O f A T F O TO m v . E X P . 1 «/>.r f s i p i j » l A i i o r f t t r n t o n o v . e x p .

7 6 2 .7 7 0 .

1 M 7 2 .(I .

139

140

Appendix Table 3

Groups and Subgroups fo r the P riv a te Consumption Expenditures

Equations

Group Subgroup Commodity

Food P ro te in 3 Sea Food

41 Meat

42 D a iry Products

43 Canned Products

Non-Prote in 1 F ru its , Vegetables

44 Bread, P a s tr ie s

- 45 G rain

46 Fats and O ils

47 Sugar

48 Other Food Products

Beverage 59 Beverages

and Tobacco 60 Tobacco

Energy 61 Coa I

5 Coke

69 E le c tr i c i t y

10 N a tu ra l Gas

Cerami cs 18 B u ild in g M a te ria l

and Glassware 19 Glass

Household 31 O ff ic e Equipment

Machi nery 32 E le c t r ic a l Equipment

34 E le c tro n ic Equipment

35 Household Equipment

40 Scales, Measuring Instrum ents

141

T ra n sp o rta tio n

F iber and

Clothes

Wood,

F u rn itu re and

Other M a te ria ls

P riva te

T ra n sp o rta tio n

Publi c

T ra n sp o rta tio n

T e x t ile

Leather and

AppareI

8 Refined Petroleum

Products

36 Automobiles

63 T ire s

69 Car Repair

79 Other Road T ra n sp o rta tio n

72 R a il T ra n sp o rta tio n

76 Sea T ra n sp o rta tio n

77 A ir T ra n sp o rta tio n

78 A u x il ia ry Services

52 Yarn and Thread

53 K n it t in g

54 Woven M a te ria ls

56 Leather Products

57 Shoes

58 Apparel

2 Lumber

14 S tee l Products

16 Non-Ferrous Metals

17 Other M inera ls

20 Non-Organic Chemicals

21 Other Chemicals

25 Forging

26 Farm Machinery

59 Wood Products

60 F u rn itu re

64 P la s tic s

142

Paper and 61 Paper and Cardboard

P r in t in g 62 P r in t in g and P u b lish in g

Health 23 Drugs

Servi ces 85 Health Services

Mi scellaneous 11 P ub lic U t i l i t i e s

65 M iscellaneous M anufacturing

66 C onstruc tion

67 Scraps

70 Repair Services

71 Hotels and Restaurants

79 T e le commun i c at i ons

80 Business Services

81 Leasing

82 Housing Services

84 Education Services

86 Other Services

87 Insurance Services

88 Finance Services

Appendix Table 4 Estimation Results of the Private Consumption Expenditures Equations

144

3 0 * t *d I bL * •i ne * - / ££ * - V • t i l ' j i IV b -j r;<LL ' U * tt i l o * / r - ^ ■* f - i. i. I t l . l i l M 1 l i . i J * .1 IV i .1 j 1 1 i l J :.» j U L C

h 3U j U c I l Ou J f t UcJ j OhO ' fj A i ' j V 1 i t ) a i ) j ) i s v

J H t i J.JtfW i i i i n i i i n j J J J H J « J l JvJi 1 J.4u ) <1 A I J J lJ ,4 ,i I) J u 1 j M ' J J l l ' i d ( U J j >

h i 1 v

t t ' b a u o * * 2 2 * - b d I? * - C • - ' . c 1- * e UC I 11 l i j • A 1 ^ j U 1 tu i * / i • J i j . l o t i c VJ H * 9 * V 2 0 0 ° J ? / • -

• • ^ t i ; k » i '.j j • ( u i i v d \ *

i v a J M j *j . i f l Uay t J I IS I ' f l b t i J K ill) •d A I b V T dt ' a i i j i i s v n

J l l J 3d V V 5 3 H I J I 1 S V 1 J J J l 4d 4 41 3M1 1 i 4 U J •< 1 a i i «j a ,j .•j j j J 1 *j tl J*J i l i d i l l J j b

uu 1 1 N 1 a d UN w u J i l V d

be * U * b £ Ul> * r i c * - £ ve • - 9 * 1 £1.1 V * S J I i O i i ' j V I d ” »i0 i )u li VV i * «*Si I l u * f • i * - l # c ' - b* i * 1 S J 1 j . I 3 w , il o * - b*k. 0 0 L * £ ' » . . * - £ i » • - b* t S l l i d I t o . i l l l l d o t j i l i b

t v * • I ’ l l u o t - • r i i * - t & e * - £ * t 1 * 1 S j 1 l i . j l t : b f c S J N l H J V k i C

V i • 1 * * bOO * b 2 J * - b / d * - 1 1 * 1 Xi l t f 1 U i J d 11 r fA j -,1 3db ft * b mi 0 1 0 * £?(. * - £ » f * - S» * 1 U / ‘i * J i W1HJV >jVd I C* 1 * 6 ! 1 o o c • ‘s ' : * - I * i H i a* J l V X J i l r i 3 1 N J . . J \C6 V * i , m< 0 0 0 * I t l • - h * i - t .( C, * » S < * 3 / ' l U M l V i l j f J l W I 1I I * - b * b o j u * n > ' - i - i 4 t i * ( KI I 3 .) 4 3 J JU,1! a i I U J m V (So * - f t C C l * l< « * - i i « r - t • » - • d C * l H i 1 'JV • 1 JU *U0<l«J 1/1

* 6 * 1 0 0 0 * * '% • —. * * < ‘ h i i ,* J '(111 111 J 1 A l u i i.

i v b J M j y o d O h u i i n s d h o a ^ w n o d A 1 S V 1 A l l J l i b V 13

J l t d 3d 1 V s J l l I J l I S # 13 J j i a i * J l 3 ^1 i JWu J 41 A 1 1 U i) h 3 j J d 1 i)Jj J d i l i d i u J J i

* l » w tt j H i O Cjtil V * No l l J • u u o h

/iV * L ' t 2 2 l i ° / b t 1* - i t / * £ i f c ' - • ■' i - . / I * I i U j K J I 11 1< VII .. 1 U' j d * L ' \ ? o u * £ t > * - . 2 2 * • H b * -

• _i d i l * ' t J d l l ' i i l i v ti J >. 1 L >,

b f c * 9 * 2 2 0 0 * gt.. ( . * - M l * ' 1 6 * - ? • i o ii * «J I U NJ b J U l l i , V £ 1 y 3

b U * V * d w u * s / s * - u e * c e t * - ?• 1 - 1 i s * i l l l i n 3 3~J« H i »0 C i 0 3I L ' \ > ' L w o o * £ S I * - 9 / 2 * <! 6 •< • - 1 * - f i t ' J l l l J i j i J M Ii C 1 i bt d * tf * k I O U * J l ■•?*“ J 2 j * b 2 ^ * - C ' 1 “ I I ' \ i j U i 1 J j 11 J 21 d 3

• v t i i i N i y t n o ^ y d n s d H O u J N(10 *JlA 1 S V 1 30 A l l J I l ^ j V l j J

J H a 3 d # V s> J I l l D i i b v 13 3 J i ( id * V I 3 Ml 1 J iJl A 1 1 U J .1j4 j J d 1 u H. i t i l l s d U1 J 3 >

b J H l U U l h \> S a J H J J

t « * 0 * U I i r o * L L l ' - / 2 l • ■ m u ' - h • 1 - i t C ' c i | b U V < : i JVj 'j J h l S J l l AtIV j J J l A J i j S . 1 0 /Vd * / * « t o o * b b 2 * - i t t ' - * l ~ i t i ' i S M U M l V j I .J'J J j U» i l l ■ 1 L It V • 9 * £ 1 o n o * I b i 1* - b f I * ■■fca * - * . • 0 - £ . M * S J U i l J H v U j l l l O . f ' j i n o l < 1 ViH i * b * £ 5 3 0 ' 2b » * - 3 £ I * v v r - £ i d * i 3 i i i J H » ' J l J S M » H i J j l . i W t Hi

Vb * / • t t £ 0 0 * b. i l * - t i « * £ i £ • 1 « ! • - £ . . t, * b JNV I A Oi l t i J J d ' j N V t l l • 1 c lV t i * 2 * 2 I I d * ? t M * - l A i ' \ r - 2 * - i t C* 1 j u m o w o i i i v j u i i v j t f cu a fc o yi z ' l ' t 2 0 0 * r f M * - ' 9 1 * 2 b « e - ^ * . i i * l 1 J I l U l I V iJ ll j l < d t * y1 u * I *5 9 l U * e t i * - b i b * ) < s f - C* ’. * 1 i J I l H O W d l l N i 3 I l l J J r l J ^ 6 y tb I • < * • „ 1 2 0 * u r - £ ? S * 9 t . e * - £ * I t l ? t * . j l ' l J 3 V l i J l l i j j l J l l t

i v a j \j j u l i l d d Jb'1 > 31 J* l J N i U • H A i a t f l J ) A l l JJ i i V l J

IMIN 3 d # V S J l 1 1 3 I 1 S V 13 3 01 Md 4 N 1 J W 11 J.ukO JK 1 A i l u O i J W UJ d llllt l'J d llS -4 0 1. J J S

4Ul Lv i j ] J\>MV t i l

* r > r n a h f m s rn »* .

MTT )|} <>M"rr>ni|P OOM'U) n | IY r <iro*r Tl'ir I?) tf I 1ST f C ( I Y OF L * ST VP

I I r * | » l r K M ' F F * r f HI. I- A |W »?en rn u ' TiMrc nfjf '<r.r *, i.?*? .4M R * 1 Tf f l ‘ T r T r i N IF C I V I L - . 3t i •Jr r<ir{'i'' *>r ? >w i . •=.»•* •i ' “ r»’ <*r a t r f f r r . iv i« s i * i . m i71 M il T r | c * r r s » : t r < ; T ' ' •*> v i l . >| t> - .»«

7 ~ T r | f r i » H r* | T 6 T f M ' S 5 . ? q - f - 1a Sr <<»f r ' " M l * K i ' J T . ^ p w CSr S - i . t -» t i C f * i n i f f t r i r n i > - i <• i i I ' C f i i I i . p i i . 7"*> t f IT 1 . SS . 6

F»| F c T f l f. Ff “ r f T I f ' f l - T H H ' f l I . r> f . ?A ' I T P CS M A ^ C H ^ N r»S - 2 . ?

f 7 A r r Mf M . r r S , n l h .1f f r i f , n t f . a i p . 1

>~~4

P P f T F n . » s t i n t r r s A APK HHOHUN n p n i i p SIJMRPOIP f i “ NFRA|_

.''■ .*■ . n p 3 6 . 4 . 77- . 5 1 M . > 15 . 0 1 1 ' . 2 . *» 1- . t ? 3 . •< . 0 0 5 . 56- . 5 2 * . ' ' I . 1 0 1 * * * * . 29< i . 0 0 2 ■*.*» . 6 1- . 0 9 * 1 .* ' 5 5 . 0 2 9 1 . 1 . S'*

, : , 5 • n pq 2 . 3 •»- . 5 2 5 . . 1 •<< . 0 0 4 ’ . 1 . ^

V ) . 0 0 1? . i

• 1 9- . <tf 7 . 0 5 1 . i r

.< *-3 . 0 0 ? 2 . *» . *>/51 1 • > i b . 0 1 2 T . 7**

- . ^ I M . r n . 0 0 9 3 . 0 . I P. 1 i . n m * . 9 . ? *

Ui

T A B L E 1 * S U M M A R Y e x p o r t REGRF S S I ON

S E C T O R ,

1 A G R I C U L T U R E

7 G A 2 N A T U R E L

8 P E T R O L E R A F F I N E

1 3 S 1 D E R U G I E

1 5 M I N E R A 1 S NON F E R R E U X

1 9 V E R R E

2 0 C H I M I F M I N E R A L E

2 H H I N 1 E O R G A N 1 Q U E

2 2 P A R A C H I M 1 E

2 3 P R O O U 1 TS P H A R M A C E U T 1 Q U E S

2 S T R A V A I L D E S M E T A U X

2 6 M A C H 1 N E S A G R I C O L E S

2 7 M A C H I N E S O U T ] L S

2 8 E Q U I P M E N T 1 N D U S T R I E L

3 1 M A I H I N E S DE B U R E A U

3 J M A T E R I E L E L E C T R O N I Q U E P R O F E S S I

3 6 V EH I C U L E S A U T O M O B I L E S

3 8 C ONS T RUC T I ON N A V A L E

4 2 L A I T ET P R O D U I T S L A 1 T 1 E R S

4 3 C O N S E R V E S

4 5 P R O D U I T S DU G R A I N

4 6 C 0 R P S G R A S A L I M E N T A I R E S

4 7 S U C R E

4 8 A U T R E S P R O D . A L I H E N T A I R E S

4 9 1 3 0 1 S S O N S E T A l C O O L S

5 1 F I L S ET F 1 U R E S A R T J F I C I F L S ET

5 2 F I L S ET F I L E S

5 3 U O N N E TE R I E

5 5 C U I R S ET P E A U X

5 7 C M A U S S U R E S

6 1 P A P I E R , C A R T O N

62PRESSF , I MPR1MEH1F , E D 1 T I ON

64PROO. PLASTIQUES

6 5 I N D U S 1 R I L S DIVERSES

6 / r e c u p c r a t i o n

R E S U L T S FRENCH EXPORT E QU A T I ON ST C O E F F I C I E N T S ARE I N P A R ENT HE S E S

es??AlfreLAIT«Iiiles D E M A N D ( B )

- . 5 0 - . 5 0 - 1 4 0 7 1 . 0 3 3 4 . 9 6 1

- . 5 0 - . 5 0 ' - ’ U K }C - 6 . 4 4 1

'< 8 . 2 f t )

- 1 . o n - 1 . 0 0 9 9 1 . P 6 2 . 1 5 4

- 2 . 0 0 - 2 . CO : - m I « ! ; * ». 0 0 - 2 . 0 0 - 3 9 . 3 1 . r 25

- 2 . on - 2 . 0 0 I : W : m- 2 . on - 2 . 0 0 2 5 8 . 2 3 4 . 5 8 3

- 2 . c n - 2 . 0 0 :- 2 . U 0 - 2 . 0 0 - 2 2 3 4 . 5 8 2 . 6 7 3

- 2 . 0 0 - 2 . 0 0 ' i ? : U iC - 1 . 6 4 ) ( 2 3 . 4 4 )

- 2 . 0 0 - 2 . 0 0 - 5 1 0 5 . 8 1 2 7 . 8 2 7

- 3 . OP - 3 . 0 0 ! - i i ! « ! : m- 3 . 0 0 - 3 . 0 0 - 2 7 7 3 . 8 6 7 . 8 9 8

- 3 . 0 0 - 3 . 0 0 ‘ - l i i r f i i< - 3 . 9 6 )

•( 8 . 4 6 )

- 2 . 0 0 - 3 . 0 0 - 2 3 3 2 . C 6 6 . 3 3 0

- 2 . 0 0 - 2 . 0 0( - 5 . 3 0 ) :

- 3 . 0 0 - 3 . GO - 2 6 0 1 7 . 5 5 9 4 . 6 4 8

- 3 . 0 0 - 3 . COI I i | ; B t

- . s n - . 5 0 - 5 5 4 2 . 5 1 2 3 . 9 8 0

- . 5 0 - . 5 0 I ; m- . 5 0 - . 5 0 - 4 9 4 6 . C 8 8 . 6 9 4

- 1 . 0 ^ - 1 . 0 0 : - i i i j ) '< 4 . 9 0 )

- . 5 0 - . 5 0 - 1 9 8 8 . 3 4 9 . 8 9 2

- . 5 0 - . 5 0 • - T h a n ' * I : H J( - 5 . 7 8 ) < 9 . 7 3 )

- l . o O - 1 . 0 0 - 3 4 5 P . 3 7 9 . 1 3 2

- 1 . On - 1 . 0 0( - 9 . 1 9 )

- 2 8Li8. ? ' l i : M i( - 1 0 . 4 4 ) ( 1 4 . T 4)

- 2 . on - 2 . 0 0 - 3 5 0 . 4 < - . 6 3 )

4 7 . 7 5 3 t 7 . 7 3 )

- 1 . 5 0 - 1 . 5 0 - 3 1 5 0 . * I - 9 . 4 1 )

5 5 . 7 6 5 ( 1 4 . 5 3 )

- . 4 0 - . i O - 4 6 0 . 6 ( - 2 . 0 6 )

1 4 . ^ 4 6 1 5 . 7 8 )

- 2 . U 0 - 2 . 0 0 - 1 4 v g , 6 ( - 4 . 7 2 )

3 3 . 7 1 8( 8 . ° 8 )

- 2 . GO - 2 . 0 0 - 2 1 6 8 . r 5 4 . 4 8 3( - 1 0 . 2 1 ) « - i i ; w

< 1 9 . 6 3 )-1 . a ? - 2 . 0 0 3 7 . 7 7 7

( 1 2 . 4 7 )- 2 .JO - 2 . n o - 9 0 4 . 1

( - 5 . 1 6 )3 9 . 4 9 5

< 1 5 . ° 1 )- 3 . 0 - 3 . 0 0 - 7 7 5 . 0

( - 5 . 2 9 )3 « . 17?

( 2 0 . M )- .u*» - 2 . of? - 1 7 3 5 . 2 4 “ . ? 0 4

. 9 6 7

. 7 9 1

. 7 8 6

. 7 8 6

. 4 3 9

. 9 8 8

. 9 2 6

. 9 4C

. 9 5 6

. 9 8 2

. 9 3 7

• 9G 3 . 9 4 1

. 9 0 3

. 9 7 0

. 8 7 9

. 8 7 1

. 7 9 1

.90C

.87C

. 9 5 5 i

. 6 0 8

. 8 0 7

. * 6 1

. 9 3 9

. 9 6 7

. 8 2 6

. 9 4 2

. 3 36

. 8 5 6

. 9 3 9

. 77 ?

.92*.

. 9C,9

. 9 5 6

RBARSQ

1 * 6 3 9 .

6 2 .1< '269.

1 4 2 3 5 .

7 9 .

3 3 9 9 .

3 9 5 6 .

19511 .

7 6 3 9 .

3 5 1 9 .

1 C 2 9 7.

2798 .

4568 .

2 1 2 1 5 .

5 2 6 2 .1C 141 . 4 5 1 6 6 .

4556 .

P 8 " 8 .

1 5 C 0 .

4 6 2 C .1 4 7 9 .

3 9 T 2 .

2 3 7 7 .

5 4 8 5 .

1 5 1 1 .

4 9 3 C .

2 5 4 C.

9 4 1 .

1 9 1 9 .

3 6 R 3 .

2 736 .

3 9 1 3 .

3 .

T59C.

1 9 ? 7 EXPORTS

Appenaix Table

5 Estim

ation Results

of the

Export E

quations

7 2 T R A N S F f E R R O V I A R E S

7 3 T R A N S P ROUT I E R S DE P A R C HA N D I S E

7 5 N A V 1 G A T I O N I NT E R 1 EUR E

7 6 T H A N S P O R T S M A R I T 1 M E S

7 7 T R A N S P O R T S A E R 1 E NS

7 8 S E R V I C E S A U X 1 L I A I R E S DE T R A N S P

7 9 T E L E C 0 M M U N 1 C A T I O N S

8 0 S E R V I C E AUX E N T R E P R I S E S

- 1 .an - 1 .CO

. 0 0< - 3 . 3 0 )

- 1 - 1 . 0 0 - 4 9 2 . 6

- 1 .on - i .on( - . 9 8 )

- 1 .or - 1 .CO 2 1 2 1 . 9

- 1 . 0 0 - 1 . 0 0 ; M- 1 .on - - 1 . 0 0 - 8 8 8 0 . 2.on ( - 7 . 0 1 )- 1 - 1

oo•

< n \ i- 1 .un - 1 • o o

« > t 1 N- 6 5 3 8 . 9

( - 7 . 5 7 )

S UMMARY OF T I M E E O U A T I O N S L N ( E X P O R T S )

S E C T O R P R I C E3 P E C H E

5 C 0 K E F A C T I O N

9 E L E C T R 1 C 1 T E D I S T R 1 B U E E

1 2 M 1 N E R A ] OE FER

1 6 M E T A U X NON F E R R E U X

1 7 M I N E R A U X D I V E R S

1 8M A I E R • DE C O N T R U C T I O N

2 4 F O N D E R I E S

2 9 M A T E R I E L M T P S

3QM A T E R 1 E L D ' A R M E M E N T

3 2 M A I E R I E L E L E C T R 1 Q U E

3 4 M A T t R I E L E L E C T R O N I U U E M E N A G E R

3 5 E Q U 1 P E M E N T M E N A G E R

3 7 M A T E R I E L F E R R O V I A I R E R O U L A N T

3 9 C 0 N S T R . A E R O N A U T 1 Q U E

4 0 1 N S T R U M E N T S ET M A T E R I E L OE PH F

4 1 V I AND E S

S O T A b A C S t T P R O D .

5 4 0 U V R A G E EN F I L E S

5 6 A R T 1 C L E S EN C U I R

5 9 P P O D DU 6 0 1 S

6 Q M E U U L E S

8 1 L 0 C A T I O N ET CR E D I T - 0 A 1 L M O O | L I

8 4 E M S E I C N E M E N T ( M A R t H A N O )

8 7 A S S U R A N C E S

* A ♦ B * T 1 M E ♦ C * R E L A T I V E

A S T I C I T 1 E S C O N S T A N T ( A )- 2 . 6 0 8 . 3

( 4 . 4 1 )- 1 . 8 7

( 7 7 6 )- . 2 3 6 . 0

< 2 . 7 5 )- . 9 9

( (ilso- 1 . 4 2 1 0 . 5

< 1 1 . 2 5 ) 6 . 4

C 1 3 9 . 2 5 ).no

- 1 . 1 1 9 . 0

( l j f * 6 0 )- 3 . 8 7

- 1 . 6 1 ‘ l i t ! 9 8 * ( 2 2 , 1 0 )

1 4 . 5 ( 2 2 . 3 3 )

- 4 . 6 5

- 1 . 2 9 1 0 . 1 ( 2 C . 9 9 )

- 1 . 1 0 7 . 8 C 3 . 6 2 )

- . 6 7 8 . 5 ( 1 1 . 2 2 )

- 2 . 9 9 1 0 . 3 ( 8 . 1 1 )

. 0 0 8 . 8 C 1 7 7 . 7 1 )

9 . 5 C 1 1 . 9 8 )

- . 7 6

- 2 . 3 1 1 0 . 8 ( 2 5 . 6 7 )

- 4 . 4 1 1 0 . 0 ( 6 . 2 7 )

- 1 . 8 1 1 0 . 5 C 1 4 . 9 5 )

- . 2 5 6 . 4 < i e . 2 9 )

1 . f t 4 1 ’( P . 4 6 )

.CO- 7 . 2 5

- 5 . 4 2 9 . 3 ( 8 , 3 7 )

- 2 • 7 6 9 . a ( 1 2 . 4 4 )

. 1 5« ss;.7.

. 8 4 6 1 3 1 19 . ? 3 )

6 6 . 6 1 0 . 8 3 3 7 3 8 5

! : « ! . 6 0 4 1 ? C

9 8 ! 2 0 2 . 9 7 3 1 2 6 6 1

. 9 8 3 5 6 4 9

1 3 5 . 5 1 8 . 8 C 8 5 6 3 6 B.8C)- . 0 1 5 3 7 3

2 3 5 . 5 3 3 . 9 2 2 1 « 9 6 51 5 . 7 1 )

CETIME < b ) RBARSQEXPORTS. 0 5 1 . 2 7 5 4 5 1 .2 . 4 4 )

. 7 0 6 3 9 9 .

-i!8» . 5 7 3 2 3 5 .

- . 0 7 4- 3 . 9 6 )

. 7 5 7 3 6 C .

• I’O. 9 7 3 1 T 8 8 8 .1 6 . ?Q>

*:???, - . 0 1 8 6 5 0 .

. 0 ? 3 . 9 3 9 3 C C 5 .

’Wi* . 9 5 1 1 4 5 1 .

. 9 7 7 9 6 6 5 .

2: m ' . 9 7 3 5 0 7 7 ."ill' . 9 8 3 9 4 9 9 .2 8 . 1 1 )

. 0 5 4 . 9 2 3 1 0 7 0 .. 9 4 )

. 1 * 7 . 9 8 4 3 4 C 7 .3 1 . T 6 )X1”9,66} . 9 3 0 1 3 6 7 .

. 9 5 9 9 1 2 6 .

. 9 7 2 4 8 ? 6 .2 3 , 7 6 )

. 0 6 2 . 8 5 1 5 5 7 9 .ir.re)• 1 2 4 . 9 5 9 3 7 3 .

1 0 . 5 2 )• C 4 1 . 8 9 7 7 1 9 8 .8 • ? 9 ) . 0 3 7 . 8 7 1 6 f 5 .7 . 5 7 )

. 0 * 6

. 4 4 1 2 2 8 9 .

. 9 1 5 6 5 9 .2 . 2 5 ).0"2 . 6 6 7 4 9 .^ . 7 9 ).o°e .781 1 7 ? 1 .6.49).0,2 .938 7 ^ 4 .

1' .2 )

,:.- .v.^iv^t^F, W>VC

S U I t M f J Y P K i r r o r r, q r < ; < ; | 0 fj " r Sl ) l . I S K F L A T T V f f *«»i r .FS FOR THF E X P OR T S F O I I A T I O N *

F Oi l A T I ( i f ; T Y f F l«; : L N f PK I «~r » r A ♦ p * 11 m r

SEC I0W r n MST a *j t i 4) T I Mr ( R ) R«ARSO RHO A V F R A ' i F RATF OF C

1 « G « i r i l L TIIWF - . 1 H 1 . 1 1 1 • ? 3 • . 31 > - . o n ?

? S Y L V i r U L T U R F . " P I . " 2 1 • 5?M • 5 « . i . 0 30

F t C H L . »*» S . I t ' S . ‘ 1 ) - . 7 ■ . 0 1 0

Q MO I I I L 1 (. 11 I (.N I T T , « PHI (?Mr |>rS . " KH . 0 0 3 , l | o r ; . 0 1 2

s COKI F A C T I O N . V» » . ) ) i . 10 » . 0 0 0

h PI Tf>OL F f l » l ! T . 1 • ' ,1 . ]Of i 1 j m . 0 0 0

7 ( jA? NAT IJ Wr L J7 1 - . V»1 . • i *» 5 . 1 6 9 - . 0 0 9

R i * t t r o l f h a t f i N r - . i n ' ) . 2 7 0 . f r A ' 1 - . 0 0 2

9 E L F ^ T P I T I Tr n i s T W T P I l F F . »56 - . 1 1 3 . 5 3 > . 5 3 0 - . 0 0 f t

1 ' ( i * 7 U I M H i m i r i . ' i n n . 0 0 0

1 1 E <1II t T r H4 H » : c * r , r I JRB A I N . » M . m ' l . r - » . 0 0 0

1? ^ i l ME Ra I n r f t p - . ’ K2 - . • ' 1 3 5 • B6S1 . 2 0 0 - . 0 4 3

1 * s i n E R u n I F . 7 . v n . »9 ) . 0 0 2

1»l P R o n . o f i ' A r i r ' t - . m o . 0 5 B • 1 A? - . 0 0 3

I S M 1 ‘ IE H A | S NON F F 9R F (JX - . 1 2 * * - . 2 7 1 . 3 0 . 4 9 - ' - . 0 3 5

1 * Mf TAWX NOf) F F R H r u X - . I f *! . " ' O l . 3 6-1 - . 0 0 f t

1 7 M 1 ' IF '< A If X n i V r R<: >H7 - . ■ * 2 2 . «n ' - . 0 3 1

1 P Ma T E H . n r r O N T R H f T I O N - . ■’ a 3 - . 0<* 1 , ' j H n . - . 0 0 5

19 v i r b e . » i 5 . 5 7 » . 4 8 > - . 0 1 2

? • C H I ' I l f M W F R A i r - • "!1 *5 - . 0 0 7 . 1 5 • . 6 * ' t . 0 1 I

?1 C H l ' M E O H R A N I O I jF - . »«? - . ) o « . 1 7 > . «n<< - . 0 1 0

. n n i . f « 7 . 3 ° ^ . 0 0 f t

P H O O U I T S PH A ' ^ A ^ ^ I I T I O I I r ^ - . M » - . M S . h »J 1R0

?»i f o w n c i ' i r s - . ■ 'IQ , n ' » p . ' ^ 7 . 1 7 ' - . 0 0 3

■j *; T r a v a i i n r s »i f i m i x - . » -7 . 1 9 . 5 7 i 0 0 5

?b MA ( ' H I m r S M R I T O L F^ - . ' H I - . 0 0 3

? 7 P A C M l f i F S n i l T U I * 7 *> - . > 1 1 . A ? ■ . S7- ' - . 0 1 5

?# t O K I P K r rv T IMr»n^. T ft I r | - . " ' f . 7 1 - - . 0 1 9

? 9 'I ATT RI FC - T P S . ' **• ~ • 1 11 . *11 - .0 0 21 • M« Tf l< I f I n • AMf' r r fpi [ . 1 , ■*, . c f ■ .OOP

Appendix Table

6 Estim

ation Results

of the

Relative

Prices of

Exports E

quations

m w m a Ry n p j r r R r s i J L l S

FOIUTJOfu T Y f T I*; ! l N ( P H | r « - ) = A

S C t TOH

o o * f s i i c p r i c e s

n * T i « i r

roNSTftMTMJ T1MF(«) RHARSO

1 4 63 1 C l l l Tl )Rr <71 . " ' S I

7 S Y L V l r n t TURF . ^ 7 . ^ 7 «

\ PECHE . >7 7 . > 8 !

M H O I U L I F . L l n i l T r , A p p i O K r U r S - . 1 »* ‘1 . O &Ar, COKEK « r n o n - . 1 7 * . »99

6 H t T R O L F RPI IT . 0

7 G M 4 A T l l P r L . »6 ia P L T R O I F R o r r i f j r - . ° 1 7 . 0 5 1

o r L F C T H i d T r n i S T H I P I I E r - . 1 3 1 . " » ?9

t • PA 7 U l M R l H i r . n o n

t t E Al l t T r H R l K F A R F UHP# TN

1 ? r i i r i E ^ A l p r f t h . 1 1 5

1 * S 11*:. R 1 Ki I F ~ . U » . »<• >

1<l P r t o n . n r i * a c i f R - . • ^ 5 . 1 6 1

15 . i l N E R f t l S HON F F RR FU X . i n . I t ) 1

1.6 Ml T* IIX NON F F K R F I I X - . i n . 0 * 6

17 K I ‘ IE R AI IX n i v c R c - . 1 ? 3 . * 3 9

t f t M A T F R . PF C ON T R A C T I O N - , ' F H . ? 5 T

VF 3 K E - . »o? . 1 35

? C H I H I F M N F R A L T - . 1 0 ? . ' • 3 R

*1 C H I ’? I F O H P r t N I O i r - . ? 3 1 . I ? *

PA R* CM I K I ‘ - . i n . ' > 3 1

P R o n U 1 I S PM A‘t M i ^ n i T T011 r * f l 3 . 1 1 5

?*f F O f J O E P l F S . ' * ?

?5 T R U V A I l r i r<; ^ r m u - . 1 1 4 . 1«6

? 6 f l i C H i n r s A f W l r O L F S - . ' c 7

^ 7 M A C H I N E S n i | I I L c . >K I

?« L 0 I I 1 P K F K T IM nn«-. ▼ ft 7 r» - . • 7 ° . H|*>

? 9 r* A T r R I F 1 » T P S 'H 3 . * «6

1 i *ia T r t i i r l n • A ' i r r " ! t i ■ r » m- iff.

. 9 1 3

. 9 m

. 7 7 r»

. 7 « ' '

. 'i “iP . 61<>

• 6?f» . 7 ? )

.onn

. 1 5 "

. 76'1

. f l 6 H

.»r)r> . A 9 » ’

. 70*1

. 9 0 0

.«U * . 6 ° ' )

. 3 3 )

. 7 7 ' -

• r» B f

. f t ? .

. H I » . no . .

. « 9 1

• V ' ’ •1 . 1i '

Tftiu.u 1. SiUKMAHV IMPORT REGRESSION RESULTS FRENCH 1KPOHT EQUATIONST COEFFICIENTS AHE IK PARENTHESES

SECTOR*

2 SYLVlCuLTUHE

3 PEtMtb COKtFACTlON 7 (,/U nAtW<EL a PElHQt-t RAFFINE

13 b lL£|,U 0 i tLt» KEIAuX non ferreux

16 k U E k . le contruction l<i VEi<Rl

20 CHlKlE MlhERALE21 CH1P]E oRGANIQUE Zi. PAWAcHlMlt2b KACHjNtS AGRICULhS 29 NA)fcHl t L MIPS 32 MATEh I l L ELECTHIuUe

34 wAIE mI l L e le c t h o n iq Ue menager

35 tOUlptKENT HtNAGLH3b VEHIcULtS AtlTOKOUlLES 38 CONS I UliC T JON NAVALE '10 INSThUm LNTS £1 m a t e r ie l UE PRE

*41 VIANjjEbM2 LAiT E l PllODUnS LAI1IERS43 LOhS£MVtS**b PROUl H S UU GRAIN•lb CORPS faRAS ALIKENTAIRES4d AUTRt-S PROD- ALlKENTAIRtS«»9 UOlSsON^ tT Al COOLS50 IA uAcS ET PROU.52 FILS ET FII.ES 54 OUVRftGE Eh FILES 5b CUXRs ET Pe AUX 5b /,I<1 I cLl S EN CUIH5 7 C»IAUbS»jht.S50 HAi' I i.Le HLh T 59 PRUU UU l lu lS

PUCE ELASTIC ITIIES CONSTANT(A) ESTIMATE a PRIORI

- .5 0 - .5 0

- .5 0 - .5 0- .5 5 - .5 0- .5 0 - .5 0

-1 .0 0 -1 .0 0- 2 . 0 0 - 2 . 0 0 - 2 .0 0 - 2 .0 0 - 2 . 0 0 - 2 . 0 0

- l .b O - 2 .0 0- 1 .6 0 - 2 ,0 0 - 2 . 0 0 - 2 . 0 0 - 2.00 - 2,00-1 .4 0 -3 .0 0

- .6 0 -3 .0 0-2 .4 0 -3 .0 0-1 .6 0 -2 .0 0-2 .6 0 -3 .0 0—3.00 —3.00-3 .0 0 -3 .0 0-3 .0 0 -3 ,0 0

- .5 0 - .5 0- .5 0 - .5 0- .5 0 -.SO- .5 0 - .5 0

- 1.00 - 1.00- .5 0 - .5 0

- 1.00 - 1.00 - 1.00 - 1,00 - 2.00 - 2.00- 2 . 0 0 - 2 . 0 0

- .5 5 - .5 0- 1 . 5 0 - 1 . 5 0

- 2 . 0 0 - 2 . I J 0

- 1 . 5 0 - 1 . L 0

-1 .0 0 - l .u O

CEk ANPJR) RPARSO 1977 IMPORTS

.219 .874 1451 .9 .7 6 )

.08^ .947 ?206.i6 : U \ .434 1083,4 .f lp )

.760 .937 4217.1T:3|1 .709 6g80.

.927 11264.

.092 15374.16 .39 )

,10» .903 3616.15 .82 )

.268 .925 1909,19 ,20 )

,33*» .793 3781.1 0 .91 )

.598 .981 17720.3*1.83)

.200 .868 5409.

,#:IM .918 3014.16 .51 )

• 133 .808 4385..913 4 4 0 3 .

16 ,91). 6 0 8 .937 3995,

3 1 ,2 3 ).38*» • fl°0 3770,

17 .6? ).297 .903 21984,

14.71).309 .804 2151.

,0:?U .936 5071,16:l?£ .928 9337,

H:EI .S'* 3 1394.5 .0 4 )

.310 .874 2787 .11.09)

. 0fi8 .889 2034.. P07 55?3.

5.09).813.256 3708.

9:S|J .007 1299.1M:5W .766 730.

.700 2393.7: ^ .00? f*479.

.651 10*6.3.37)

.292 .747 7 02.7:§a .74 3 2291.MJJ- .047 4108.

10.40).179 .00 1 ’ 313.

-216.5 -1 .31 )

-3118.2-'UKl

:JlW4-575??1

-5 .95 ) -7 *67 .1

-0 .64 ) -n42.8 -5 .05 ) -775.2 -0 ,1 3 )

-2790.8-2 ? 7 f l ^- u r n-•♦.13)

-•*22.4 -4 ,96 )

-1475.4-TSs»?i- I ? 5 o!J: i m i-8483?J-ifcKi- i W ? i

-4 ,06 ) -13592,P

- 2, 10)-1050.6

- .4 6 )-P80.1

z h i n-5 S & J !I-6 4 lo ^ {

= I iS ? l- .4 3 )

-066.5

- n.93) -3 ; '6 9 .5

-6 .98 ) -7 9 3 .6

( -3 .1 6 ) ( 1 1 * 1 6 ).97 26 U ►EUHl ES -1 .5 0 -1 .5 0 -9 1 6 . *4 • ie7 2752.

61 PAPit R, carton - 2 . 0 0 - 2 . 0 0 1 2B: m .956 *301 .6 ^ PRLSsE»IMPRIMLHIE»EOITION

©0 .<VI1 - 2 . 0 0 ' =?»Rl .958 ?8?fi .( “ 1 .87) ( 13*98) .93563 PNLUf/ATICiUES l IV . o o - 2 . 0 0 -1 2 6 2 .7 * 26 1 2929.6 <» PHOU. PLAbTIQUES - 2 . 0 0 - 2 . 0 0 • - i w a ' l5 :S !l .981 *4i|96 .7 j IRMNsP FLRROVIARl S - 1 . 0 0 - 1 . 0 0 ' - « s 5 ! l ' 3 ,:8{J .925 550.73 TRANbP KUUTltKS uE MARCHANUlSE - 1 . 0 0 - 1 . 0 0

( “ 6 .*47) -2 5 9 9 .3 .906 65 m .

7b KAVIbAUON INTERIEURE - 1 . 0 0 - 1 . 0 0 ‘ ~ - d f l . » . | 0 J .936 106.( - 6 .*49) 1 15*71)

.7597b lRANbPOKTS MAR IT IKES - .7 0 - 1 . 0 0 609.1 1 * 2 8 0 31*49.7 f TRrtNsPOKlS AER1ENS - 1 . 0 0 - 1 . 0 0 ' -1 if?J < in .o n

. 2 nd .919 157*4.7tt SERVICES AUXILIAIR eS OE TRANSP - L . 0 0 - 1 . 0 0 ' .iisK l ( M:H i .929 8705.79 FELEcOKMUNlCAlions - 1 . 0 0 - 1 . 0 0 ' 1";884

' i2 :U k.892 3*49.

8 U bERViCE AUX ENTRtPRlSES -1 .0 0 -1 .0 0 ‘ - T i l l l i .973 1240*4.07 ASbU|jA|,|CEb -1 .0 0 ' -1 .0 0 ' ‘ M M ( 2*4*19)

*0u5 .959 fl93 .( 1 .06 ) ( 21 * 0 t|)

SUPPAHY OF U mE EQUATIONSSL(.1bK

1 AUHIcULTUKt*4 hOUlLLL»LlGNITt» AgGLOMEKES 9 E L tC lK lC lT E OISTKIBUEE

12 K I i^ErA i DE FEH t ‘* PROD. DE L'ACIEK U [/INE ijAuX DIVERS 23 PRUDuHS PHARMACLUTIGUES 2‘I FO.mDl RIES 2b IRAVa IL UtS ME1AUX 27 KACHlNtS OUT1LS 2b tOblHMLNT INDUSIKIEL 3U N.AIEk I l L U'ARMEMENT 31 MACM(NLb OE UUREAU 33 M fb R lE L ELECIMOWIOUE PRUFfcSSl 37 K.A1EM1LL FtHHOVlAIHE HOULAM 39 COivb | R , AERONAUT IGUE ‘»7 SUCRt-bi MLb' t r r hires artificiels et5 3 UOUNj- I e H I E

61) l N i J L I s » h I t b L) I VERSES

07 KtcUpLRATlUN

LN(IKPORTS) = A ♦ B*TI«E ♦ ^RELATIVE PRICEPRICE ELASTICITIES

-3 *6 0. 00

-•5.35- 1.68

. 00

.00

. 0 0

-2 .0 3-2 .0 5

• -3 .2 0-1 .9 2

.00-2 .2 3-3 .6 0

. 00

.00

.00- 3 . 3 2-5.91- 2 . 6 1

.OJ

CONSTANT(A)13.4§ h I2 )

'3? i U)2 .6 5 )

8 . 0 i n . 90)7 .9

2 3 7 . 1 1 )

‘ E V 0195 .9 1 )8 .3

‘1.73)10. 8i S ^ 17’i l V 1’

3 9 . 2 0 )5 . 663 .6 8 )

1 0 . 725 .69 )

1 2 . 5P ,91)5 . 3 5 * 4 . 6 0 )а . 48 r- . 5 9 )б . 5(J1 .'4M)

1 0 . 3

1 :>. 6 9 ) 11.0

TIKE(B).016

; » « •: a v.096

” o 5 § '

1 3 .01 ).0795*56).126

“ i IV

" i s ? ’‘ ■’ *26» .cOo1M • 71

• 2 19

:arI i J i *i 9 * Of))

- .0 3 8 -■«. 17)

.219

i : \ w2vosr

PUARSQ.765.*446.585 .9*49 .973 .760 .903 .7*4*4 .977 .926 ,972 .913 .965 .953 .756 .019 ,«l 76 .935 .9<>6 .978 .5bl

Tf/pOPTS26591.

'•879.576.

1*463.2916.178*4.

*4. *4.501.

7805.*4532 .

13598.5*»6 .

7 0 5 5 .

fi9»»6.13*4.

*45P3.

7?P.l»ir,*4.3un6.5 5 l S .

125'4.

151

( 93.71) ( <4.00)

IMP/DOM.DEMAND 1977 IMPORTS .90QAO 5H132.0 .fll3 7 H PH27.0

AGGKEGAlE RELATIVE PRICE ELASTICITY* WEIGHTED by 1977 IMPORTS FOR THE LISTED SECTORS -1.9o<4AGGHEGAiE OEKANO ELASTICITY WEIGHTED OY 1977 IMPORTS *AND EVALUATED USING 1977 DEMAND 1*035AVERAGE HaTL OF CHANGE ON RELATIVE PRICES = .002RELATIVE HR1CE CHANGE IN LAST Y£AR= .993AVLRAbt Ra TL OF CHANGE ON DOMESTIC PRICE = .039CHANGE jN LAST YEAR = 1 .008

NON COM pEllflVE IMPORTSSECTOR

fa HEIRcLe urutlb MKERAlS NON TERREUX

InK)

Sl l t «M*RY P P i r r ft r r , R r s s i O N Ul. I S w r M J I v r P P I C F S FOR THF I MP O R T S F O I I A T I O N S

FOI MTI OM TYPF I S : I N I P H j r r i z h * P + T I m r

St C T On r o N S T a ' I T M l T i n r < R » R MR SO RMO * V f RAGF P A T F OF CHANGF

1 A G ' M C I I L TUPF . >4*. - . T - ' t . m I 5 . HI I . 0 0 3

? b Y L v i r m t i i r f 9P " "5 . 5 5 H . 9 ?<i - . 0 0 6

1 Rfc CMF_ »S7 . 9 0 ' . • 7*»‘ > - . 0 2 0

11 HO I I11 l . r * L 1 M l I f F • A F H L O h T R F S - . T3 ' t - . 1 1 0 . 9 7 " ' . 7 1 n - . 0 ? 2

COKf F » r i l O ' J . 9 3 1 . 9 ^ 1 - . 0 1 5

(■ Pf T R O L f R C IIT . ><■ • . i o n . ' " J O . • ■ r n . 0 0 0

7 G«7 *M A T I IRr |. . ' • I . m . 7 M » . 9'»-l . 0 0 9

ft PI t r o t F R r r r i n r . ' ) 5 8 . ' • 0 4 .301) . 9 p n . 0 1 0

9 l I . f t t r j r j t t n i s T R T P i i r r - . M «l . »•»& . 5 9 > . 8 9 1 . 0 0 5

1 • ( ja 7 u I M R I P l i r . - 1 " 0 . ' • n o . n r o , « . r n . 0 0 0

1 1 L * f J ET r n « | I F c a r ; r U R P A I N . » l 1 . u n . 0 0 0

1? r11 Mf KA I n«" F T P . 1 2 3 . 9 3 » ' . * • 70 . 0 1 6

1 ' s m r . R u r , i f T ? S - . !>r3 . 7 7 1 . 8 6 ' - . 0 0 6

! ii P R o n . n r l • « r i r R . 1! , " r » i . 3P r. . 7 5 ' i . 0 0 3

I S m i v f R M S * n r i r r R R F i i X . ' H I . >*11 ..■>on . 0 0 0

1A Hf T M I X NON r r | f f > r t | X ~ . " ? . ' 1 1 2 . 8 9 0 .# .10 . 0 1 ?

17 rt i » i r w ft i t x n i v r h « - . M l . 1 ? I . 7 - 11 . 9 ° “ . 0 1 7

1 P M * T F H . p r r O N T M t f T TON - . ' 3 *l . ■»=.»*> . 3 1 : - .87-> . 0 0 2

I 9 Vf. «RE » * 9 . <16 . 6 5 « . 9** * . 0 0 9

? C H I M I F M I K F R A L F . i n . ' 1 3 . 7 « ■? . 7 7 ' . 0 1 9

n c h i m c o . ^ n ^ N T O u r . »!>7 . V ' 9 . 7 3 ' ! . f l8 • . 0 1 6

? ’> P i Rf. r M IM 1 r - . B ? 9 _ # . | f> c . ? * r . 9 ? " - . 0 1 <1

7J, P R0I1 U I T ^ PH A ' M A ' ' r‘ l iT l o u r s - . t i n . I I I . 5 6 > . 9? i . 0 0 8OH F O f n t h I F S - . ' a 7 - . " I«l . 2 , P 7 ' - . 0 0 9

5 T T R 1 V 4 I L o r s ' < r n i l * . V . 1 . 57 : . 9 1 3 . 0 0 2

?t . m a c h i n e A i - P i r o L r r' - . * ’ 7 . " • 4 ' . 9 1 - . 0 0 1

?7 M « C H I ' J f S Oi l T I L S . ' 1 1 . 7 5 • . 9 ! - . 0 1 1

? n t o m m r " r i w m i s T ’M r i - .*»•*» . ! r . 6 ? ■ . S I ' . 0 0 1Oq M M C W 1 F I " T P S - . * ’ ’* 4 ’ ''’ > . •? . f i 9 i . 0 0 0

1 ' M s T l R l l l * « ? M r r ' [ f , T - . !> 7 ' . n .V * • - . 0 1 3

t;

Appendix Table

9 Estim

ation Results

of the

Relative

Prices of

Imports

Equations

SPRF Pr m > P u w ? 7 R 3 a ? , « i / » n / p - ' p r r <• i L ' lU PRfc‘ P .

S N AP . I . P A K T A R A H UHA 1H 1 f f l / ' i p - ? n : n | M A K T AP * HWSTA&T : >1371? . PROr, S ? 2 r ( I / D ) 7' •? ♦/ ? 5 1 r*t n o r a **• e r r o r s : n o n f c m ' h s ^ c .

3 * ot h a k t a « a h wE O L A T I O N FOR THF Nl ' WPFR OF H O I R S LOHKFO f OlJA T I ON T Y P E I S r I N ( A t t l ' - A LPHA ) : A ♦ I

S E C I O H

I A G R K U L T I I R F . S Y L V I C U L T U R E , P F C H r

4 P R C I ) . PE f O M R U S T . H I M . S O L i n E S

5 P»<00 . P ET R O L F ET RA 7 N A T t lRFL

6 ELECTRIC1T .GAZtEAU7 MI N t R A I S FT HFTAIDT F F .

9 P R O P . K A T . n r C ON S T R UC T I O N

11 C h l H l E n r O A $ c , F | PRF s

n fonoerif ft travail pes htt.1 *» C O N S T R U C T I O N H F f A .

15 C O N S T R l I C . F L f C . FT E L E C T R O N .

1ft B 1 E NS F Q U I P . H F M f i F R

1 7 C O N S T R U r . M J T O . r T AUTRFS

l f l CONST Rl IC . N A V . FT A FRO •

19 U n U S I R l F T F X T I L F FT H A P .

?• I N O U S T . C U I R FT CHA1ISS.

2 i M C i s . M t U P L F S * i n o . n i v .

2 ? I ^ I I I I S T . P A P . r T T A P .

33 I P P f i l HE R l F f P R F ^ < c » F O I T TON

2 U CACUTCHOt i r . F T H A T . P L A S T

2 5 P A T . . G F N I F T I V I L

26 C C * » E R C F

2 7 R L P « R . ET C O H . OF L * M I T 0 .

28 HO T E L S . r A F F S t W F < T A U .

?«? T H AM ^ P O P T S

3 " T l . L E C O r * l J N l C A T I O N S FT P O M FS

31 S E R ' / I f f S K A J C M . A L > ' N ! » .

1? S E R V I C E S f M U C H . AI J X P » I > T .

33 I H O T I O N . r R f n I T - l * / i T |

P r R v r c - K*T TMT ♦ r*L M |a H W lT -l> I

r CNST ANT T IMF AHIM T - l )

- 1 6 . 3 8 8 * . - I f 5 • • 9 1 2

- 7 . 9 6 * »25 2 . 7 1 3

- 1 7 . 7 P - .o<>! 5 . 2 3 8

- 1 3 . 7 5 3 - . <)2fl 3 . < 1 5 6

- 14 . ‘■•91 - . O f 7 « . 3 0 9

- 1 3 . 7 2 9 - . 1JI > 9 fl . ? 2 3

- 1 2 . 1 5 8 - . 0 < » 5 ’ 3 . « 4 6

- l r t . 2 7 ? - . n n n 3 . 3 6 1

- 1 1. 4 6 7 - . 1 1 5 3 . 4 2 7

- i h .«k a - . 1 )05 fl . fl I 7

- 1 2 . 1 9 6 - . 0 0 8 3 . 8 70

- 1 ^ . 9 5 0 - . MC5 3 . 5 5 6

- 1 1 . 1 6 ? - . urm 3 . 6 '17

- 6 . 7 6 7 - . J 1 8 2 . 3 2 3

- 6 . 9 I M - . " i n 2 . AB9

- 7 . 1 8 1 - . J!’ R 2 . 5 9 9

- 1 1 . 5 8 7 - . 3 . 4 8 0

- 1 6 . ' 9 5 - . J *8 f l . 8 1 0

- 1 ». 77 i - . ! } " 4 3 .

- 1 3 . 1 8 ! A . ° 8 9

- 1 1 . 0 1 6 - . -J**6 4 . 4 * 2

- 1 6 . 4 9 4 fl . 9 3 5

- 1 5 . 4 1 A f l . 6 6 2

7S 7 - . »17 ? . 9 8 4

- I *| . U *1 J - . " " 7 fl . 4 3 5

- i s . m ? - . I i 7 f l . c 75

- 1 9 . 7S1 - . 1 ( 7 5 . 8 1.3

- 1 ^ . 6 ^ 0 - . '1 ' 4 . 0 P 9

RBAPSO RHO A LPHA

. 9 8 7 - . 0 0 6 3 5 . 0 0 0

. 9 3 3 ■ 0 4 6 3 4 . 0 0 0

. 9 8 T . 2 9 7 3 5 . 0 0 0

. 9 3 8 . 28 3 3 5 . 0 0 0

. 9 f l 5 * . 2 2 0 3 5 . 0 0 0

. 9 8 4 - . 2 0 4 3 5 . 0 0 0

. 9 8 1 . 2 8 9 3 2 . 0 0 0

. 9 8 5 - . 1 5 1 3 2 . 0 0 0

. 9 7 5 - . 1 2 7 3 2 . 0 0 0

. 9 8 7 . 0 6 1 3 4 . 0 0 0

• 9 4 9 - . 0 1 8 3 3 . 0 0 0

. 9 8 9 • 2 5 7 3 2 . o o n

. 9 9 3 . 1 9 1 3 2 . 0 0 0

. 5 »5 . 0 4 0 3 7 . 0 0 0

. 7 9 9 - . 2 3 2 3 3 . 0 0 0

. 8 9 2 - . 1 1 5 3 1 . n o n

. 9 3 8 - . 1 1 3 3 1 . 0 0 0

. 8 6 4 - . 0 3 1 3 6 . 0 0 0

. 9 8 1 - . 0 5 9 3 2 . 0 0 0

. 9 6 8 . 2 6 6 3 4 . 0 0 0

. 9 6 5 - . 4 2 4 3 5 . 0 0 0

. 9 9 ? - . 0 4 8 3 5 . 0 0 0

. 9 5 2 - . 0 4 4 3 5 . 0 0 0

. 9 6 6 . 1 8 4 3 2 . 0 0 0

. 9 9 4 - . 3 2 2 3 4 . 0 0 0

. 9 9 1 . 0 2 6 3 5 . 0 0 0

. 9 o ? - . 2 1 3 3 5 . 0 0 0

. 9 r- 3 . 3 2 8 3 5 . 0 0 0

c

Appendix TabLe

10 Estim

ation Results

of the

Work Week

Equations

»r .L' ‘<F.SS | OM r t * K l u r r r r r . ( H I V I TV r o n A T I 0"!

I . O I M I I C M TYPF 1 : L N I P / U I ~ A ♦ P * H H F ♦ r * T F | . T * I . N I O )

TONST

1 S b H i r i i L T H ^ r , c y L VTCIM T I I P r . ' ‘ F T M r 3 . «3

? i M i u s T w i r s n r l • v i f t f i r i F r \ L a j i 1 . 7 9

’ I N H U S T P I F S At lTI<FS P R O P . M U ' . x . l <>

<1 P ^ o n . n p r o * M U M . f l f N . c 0 l I O F S 3 . 4 ?

*> p * o o . i * r t w o i . f t t r * ? r « a t n » r l -<.74

6 f L t C T K K l 1 F . R f t Z »F M l ' . 7 S

7 M l l f P J l ^ FT r r , ? . p o

* M N . . W E T A U X N'TN FF Rf !F(JX ' 3 . 8 7

9 PNOO. P A T . M»* CONST PUTT I Of 3 . R ?

1 ' I M H U S T R I F n i l VFKW.C 3 . R 5

1 ! C H | « I L OF F I P I ' T S 3 . P ?

I P P u m r m H i F r T i n n . PMARM. 3 . 7 6

1"» r O N M . R l f FT T ^ « V * I I HFS K r T . 3 . 7 «

1 »i c o r j c T i u i r t i 0 - i r r A . 3 . 7 6

i s c o n s t r i i c . n r r . f t f l f f t f - 0 m . 3 . 7 *

U HIL^S E OKI P. M F N A ft F R 3 .0 '’17 CONSTRUr. MITO. r T AtlTRTS 3.7«! “ CCNSTRlir. *|AV. FT AFRO. 3.761<J IMIMJS TP IF T r x T IL r F T P#*1. 3 .7 *?< ra iu s T . ru ir t «-T ch a ijss . 3 . 7 7

? 1 t 'O is .r in iP L rs . imp. p tv . » .p i?? I \ D U S T . PAP. f t TAR. 3 . f l l

?3 IMPiMMf l | r tPRFSSF.Fnn TOW ^.71*31 CAO' ITCHOUr FT MAT. PLAST 3 . ft 3

?5 PAT . , L f W I f f I V 1L T . f t 6

?6 c o r K r u r r r . m

T I " E r.Mi r o «>P A PSO RMO

- . ‘ ft - . 5 ■ . 9 7 . 4 3

- . >2 - . 2 3 . 74 . 7 0

- . ‘ 5 - .*» 1 . 9 9 . 6 0

- . >? - . M S . « 1 • 4 0

- . .5 - . 4 •' . « n . 5 3

- . IV - . 5 1 . 04 . 7 2

- . 1 3 ~ * r‘ . 7 3 . 4 5

<9 - . 3« . 95 . 39

- . ' ■ f t - . V • 9 5 . 5 7

- . 1 7 - . 0 1 . 05 . 4 1

*7 - .011 . 8 7 . 4 9

- . >7 - . 4 4 . *>« . 5 1

- . »3 - . 3 ? . « 0 . 7 1

- . ' 6 - . 4 1 . 9 6 . 4 8

- . >6 • * . 9 f l . 1 2

- . »9 - . 3 1 . 96 . 6 9

- . >5 - . 2 4 . 9 2 • 37

- . 4 4 . 9 1 . 5 5

- . , 6 ~ . 2 ' > . 9 6 . 2 4

- . ' ' H - . 2 ' . 97 . 30

’ 7 . 9 8 . 0 9

- . ‘ 5 - . 2 9 . 95 . 37

- . 3 - . 3 ? . 9 3 . 1 4

- . ' 5 - , 1 1 . 9 1 . 36

- . ' 5 - . ‘ 7 . " A . 0 6

- . ' 1 - . 4 8 . 4 5 . 6 7

MOtLn

Appendix TabLe

11 Estim

ation Results

of the

Labor P

roductivity Equations

Type I

o r <jWf s s ion* f o p t M r r p r f i r M * l u i n u r T iv> i t y f o u a t t p n

e o n » i i c 'i T Y f F i : m i r / » i - a ♦ n * i | M r ♦ c * n r i i A i n « o j

c o n s t

■>7 a t P A P . f t TOM. OF I. * A || TO , ^ . ut l

?f* H - J T FT | S . T A F F S . r t F S T A U . 1 . 8 '

7 9 Tl< A NSPOPTS ■* . e n

r \ T t i e c o ^ U N t c a t i c 'JS f t p o ^ t ^ s 3 . 7 ?

3 » c t W V I C l *1 K A R f H . A l i y F f j T P . 1 . 8 0

1? S f R W i r t ' ; MARCH. A l j y P A N T . 1 . 7 5

1 * L O C A T I O N . r P F n i T - P A U m u i . 1 . 6 5

■*'1 AS ANPFS 1 . 7 3

3 r> Ok G A N I S H F ^ r i W A N r i F R S ^ . 7 7

TIMF

• 5

'I- . *6

>7

- . • ' 3

H .H3

- . 0 5

- . * > 5

f HI. ?■' fi PRAPCP RHO

- , 2 > . 9 5 . 5 9

- . 3 6 .<>3 .*»«

- . 5 " . 8 9 . 5 8

- . H » . '>9 - . 1 * 1

- . 5 ° . 7 0 . 3 7

- . 2 1 . 1 9 . 2 5

- . 5 ° . 6 5 . 6 7

- . 5 » . 1 6 . 6 6

-.»»*> .81 .12

156

REGRESSION FOR THF FPFNCM PRODUCTIVITY FQUATIONEQUATION TYPE 2 : LNCF/O) r A ♦ R * TIME ♦ C*LNIGI - I .

CONST

1 » G « i n U L T U R F t S Y L V I C U L T U R E t P E C H F 9 . 2 B

2 I N D U S T R I E S OE L A V I A N O E ET L A I T 8 . 8 3

3 I N D U S T R I E S AUTRES P R O O . A L I H . 6 . f « o

4 PROO. RE C OM B U S T . H I N . S O L I O E S 5 . 3 6

5 P R OO . P E T ROL E ET GAZ N A T U RE L 6 . 6 2

6 E L E C T K I C I T E t G A J . E A l l « . 81

7 U N E R A I S ET MET AIJX F E . 8 . 1 B

8 M I N . t N E T A U X NON F E R RE U X 7 . 4 2

9 P R O D . K a T . nE CONSTRUCT I ON 7 . 6 4

I t I N D U S T R I E n u VERRE 6 . 6 8

1 1 CM1H1E OF B A S F . F I B R E S 7 . 7 2

12 P A R A C h l M I E F I I N O . P HA RM. 6 . 3 9

13 F ONUCR1E ET T R A V A I L HES M E T . 7 . U 9

14 C O N S T R U C T I O N ME CA . 6 . 5 3

15 C O N S T R U C . F L E C . ET E L E C T R O N . 4 . 2*1

1 6 B I E N S E O U I P . MFNAGER 5 . 8 1

1 7 C O N S T R U C . A U T O . ET A l l T RE S 6 . 2 1

t a C O N S T H U C . N A V . ET A E RO . 0 . 2 2

1 9 I N DU S TR I F T E X T I L E ET H A P . 6 . 0 9

2 » I N D U S T . C UI E T C H A U S S . 5 . 39

21 H O I S . M E U B L E S t 1 N O . H I V . 4 . 7 »

2 2 I M D U S T . PAP. ET CAR. 5 . 8 1

2 3 I M P R I M E R IE » P R E S S E » F n i T I O N 5 . 8 3

24 CAOUTCHOUC E T M A T . P L A S T 6 . 4 9

2 5 B A T . t GEWlF C I V I L 4 . 9 B

26 COMMERCE 1 1 . 2 4

T I M E 1 Nffl) R R A P S O RHO

- . 0 6 - . 9 0 . 9 9 . 6 2

. 11 - 1 . 0 0 • 89 . 6 6

- . 1 4 - . 3 8 . 9 9 - . 4 1

- . 0 5 - . 3 7 . 8 2 . 5 1

- . n i - . 7 7 . 9 9 . 0 6

- . n i - 1 . 0 0 . 9 9 . 1 4

- . 0 1 - . a n . 9 7 - . 0 1

- . 0 2 - . 8 6 . 9 8 . 6 7

- . 0 3 - . 7 2 . 9 9 . 1 1

- . 0 2 - . 6 7 . 9 9 - . 0 8

- . 0 2 - . 7 6 . 9 9 • 26

- . 0 3 - . 5 1 . 9 9 . 37

- . 0 2 - . 5 3 . 9 9 . 0 5

- . 0 1 - . 4 4 . 9 9 - . 5 4

- . 0 5 - . 0 7 . 9 9 . 2 0

- . 0 4 - . 4 3 . 9 6 . 7 4

- . 0 2 - . 3 9 . 9 8 - . 2 1

.01) - l . f i o . 9 9 . 6 0

- . 0 4 - . 3 6 . 9 9 - . 5 1

- . 0 3 - . 3 4 . 9 9 . 2 5

- . 1 6 - . 1 7 . 9 9 - . 0 3

- . 0 3 - . 4 1 . 9 7 . 4 9

- . 0 1 - . 3 9 . 9 2 . 3 6

- . 1 1 - . 5 1 . 9 8 . 1 6

- . 0 4 - . 1 5 . 9 7 . 3 6

. 0 2 - l . n o . 9 1 . 4 7

Appendix TabLe

12 Estim

ation Results

of the

Labor P

roductivity Equations

Type

TONST

REGRESSION FOR THF FRENCH PRODUCTIVITY FQUATIONE Oil A11 ON TYPE ? ! IN<F/Q> = * ♦ R*TIME ♦ C*LNIQ» -1.

2 7 R t P A S . E T C O M . Or L » A U T O . 7 . 3 8

? a H O T E L S . C A F F S t R F S T A U . 6 . 6 1

2 9 T R A N S P O R T S 1 0 . 4 3

3 ' i T E L E C O M M U N I C A T I O N S E T P O S T F S 9 . 71

3 1 S E R V I C E S M A R C H . AUX F N T R . 9 . 9 6

3 2 S E R V I C E S M A R C H . » U X P A R T . i n . « n

1 3 L O C A T I O N * C R F n i T - B A I L I M M O . 3 . 6 2

3«* A S S U R A N C F S 8 . 4 9

3 5 O R G A N I S M F S F I N A N C I E R S B . 6 5

Rife'S*-5; r<

T I * F L N ( 0 ) R R A R S O RHO

-.11 -.63 .99 .19.*>1 -.4ft . RO . 1A

- .n i -I.on .99 .03.ni -i.*.n .99 .40.03 -.96 .95 .31.«5 -.94 .Bn . 2 4

.04 .on .«9 .28

.03 - I . 01 .99 . 2 4

.on -.B4 .9fl .29

coo

C O N S T

1 » G R I C U L T U R F » S Y L V I C L L TURF t P E C H E 2 . 9 8

2 I N D U S T R I E S O F L A V I A N O E F T L A I T 2 . 5 9

3 INOUSTRIFS AUTRFS PROO. A L I M . 2 . 8 9

4 P H O O . PF C O M B U S T . M I N . S O L I D E S 3 . 0 3

5 P R O D . P E T R O L E F T G A 2 NA T I I R E L 2 . 9 4

6 F L E C T R I C I T F . G A Z t F A U 1 . 0 3

7 K I N E R A I S E T M F T A I I X F F . 3 . 1 5

8 1 I N . » M E T » U X NON F E R R F U X 2 . 9 6

9 P R O O . M A T . n F C O N S T R U C T I O N 3 . 0 0

I I N O U S T R I F O i l V F R R E 3 . 0 2

I I C H I M I L OF P A S F » F I B R E S 2 . 9 9

1 2 P A R A C H I M I F F T I N H . P H A R M . 2 . 8 f t

1 3 F 0 N D E R 1 E E T T R A V A I L D E S M F T . 2 . 9 1

14 C O N S T R U C T I O N M E C A . 2 . 9 4

1 5 C O N S T R U C . F L F C . F T F L E C T R O N . 2 . 8 7

1 6 B I E N S E O U I P . M F N A G F R 2 . 8 4

1 7 C O N S T R U C . A U T O . E T A U T R F S 2 . 8 * 1

1 8 C O N S T R U C . HA V . E T A E R O . 2 . 7 2

1 9 I N L I I I S TR I F T E X T ! L r F T H A P . 2 . 9 3

2 0 I N D U S T . C U I R F T C H A U S S . 2 . 8 2

2 1 R O I S . M E I I P L F S * I N D . n i V . 2 . 9 7

2 2 I N O U S T . P A P . F T C A R . 2 . 8 2

2 3 I M P R I M E R I E » P R F S S F , F n i T I O N 2 . 7 !

2 4 C A O U T C H O U C F I M A T * P L A S T 2 . 8 9

2 5 B A T . » G E N I F C I V I L 2 . 8 7

2 6 C O M M E R C E 2 . 9 3

RE6RESSION FOR THF FRFNCH PRODUCTIVITY FOU«TIONEQUATION TYPF 3 T LNtE/Q) = A ♦ fi*(E/0)(T-l) ♦ C*0ELTA

FOOLAG CHLNO RBAPSO RHO

. 0 2 - . 5 0 . 9 9 - . 5 9

. 0 3 - . 5 0 . 9 7 - 2 . 2 9

. 0 2 - , « » 5 . 9 9 . 4 6

. 0 2 - . 5 ) . 9 ? - . 1 8

. 0 2 - . 5 0 . 9 7 - . 6 0

. 0 2 - . 5 0 . 9 9 . 1 2

# 0 | - . 5 0 . 9 2 - . 8 0

. 0 2 - . 5 1 . 9 9 - 1 . 4 9

. 0 2 - . 5 0 . 9 9 - . 0 3

. 0 2 - . 5 ) . 9 8 - . 5 5

. 0 2 - . 5 0 . 9 9 - A . 9 1

. 0 2 - . 5 1 . 9 9 - . 6 2

. 0 2 - . # 9 . 9 7 - . 1 8

. 0 2 - . 3 5 . 9 7 - . 2 1

- s 0 2 - . 2 3 . 9 7 . 3 7

. 0 2 - . 5 0 . 9 8 . 4 1

. 0 2 - . 5 0 . 9 7 - . 9 3

. 0 2 - . 5 0 . 9 9 - 4 . 2 5

.r»2 - . 2 9 . 9 5 - . 5 4

. 0 2 - . 3 9 . 9 8 - . 3 7

. 0 2 . 0 0 . 9 8 - . 0 4

. 1 2 - . * > 0 . 9 9 - 1 . 2 0

. 0 2 - . 5 * . 9 3 . 0 3

. 0 2 - . 5 3 . 9 8 - 1 . 1 3

. 0 2 - . 5 0 . 9 B - . 2 4

. 0 2 - . 5 1 . 9 1 - . 9 8

t;

Appendix Table

13 Estim

ation Results

of the

Labor P

roductivity Equations

Type II

with C

onstrained C

oefficients

REGRESSION FOR T H F FRFNCH PROOUCTIVITY FQUATIONE Oil 4 11 ON TYPE 3 t LN(F/Q» = A ♦ R M E / Q M I - l l ♦ C*nELTA

const

2 7 RC P A R . E T C O M . OF L ’ A U T O . 2 . 9 6

2 8 h o t e l s * c a f f s » r e s t a u . 2 . 6 7

2 9 T R A N S P O R T S 3 . 0 3

1 0 t e l e c o m m u n i c a t i o n s E T p o s t f s 2 . 8 2

1 1 S E R V I C E S M A R C H . A U X F N T R . 2 . 9 5

3 2 S E R V I C E S M A R C H . A U X P A R T . 2 . 9 2

3 3 L O C A T I O N , C R E H I T - B A I L I M M O . 2 . 7 7

i n A S S U R A N C F S 2 . 5 B

.15 o r g a n i s m f s F I N A N C I F R S 3 . 0 2

r o o i AG f HI . NO R R AP S O RHO

. 1 2 - . 5 0 . 9 9 - . 3 4

. 0 2 - . < 5 0 . 7 0 - . 2 0

. 0 2 - . 5 0 . 9 8 - . 5 2

. • 1 2 - . 5 0 . 9 9 3 2

. 0 2 - . 5 0 . 9 ! - . 8 6

. 1 2 - . 5 0 . 7 9 . 0 0

. 0 2 . 0 0 . 8 1 . 5 6

. 0 3 - . 5 0 . 9*9 - 2 . 6 3

. 0 2 - . 5 0 . 9 7 - 7 . 5 * 1

160

C O N S T

1 A G R I C U L T U R F , S Y L V I C U L T U R E . P E C H E 2 - 9 * 1

2 I N D U S T R I E S OE L A V I A N O F F T L A I T 2 . 5 7

3 I N D U S T R I E S A l l T R F S P R O D . A L I N . 2 . 8 9

4 P R O D . n t C O M B U S T . M I N . S O L I O E S 3 . U 2

5 P R O D . P E T R O L E F T G A ? N A T i l R F L 2 . 9 ' i

6 E L E C T R I C I T F , G A Z * F A U 3 . J 4

7 K I N E R A l S E T H T T A U X F F . 3 . 0 5

0 M I N . . M E T A U X NON F E R R E U X 2 . 9 6

9 P R O D . H A T . ( IF C O N S T R U C T I O N 3 . 0 "

f » I N O U S T R I F HI ) V F R R E 3 . 0 1

1 1 C H I M I E HE B A S F . F I B R E S 2 . 9 4

1 2 P A R A C H I M I E F T I N O . P H A R M . 2 . 8 8

1 3 F O N D E R I E F T T R A V A I L O E S M E T . 2 . 9 1

14 C O N S T R U C T I O N M E C A . 2 . 9 *

1 5 C O N S T R U C . F L E C . F T F l E C T R O N . 2 . 8 7

1 6 R I E N S E Q U I P . M F N A G E R 2 . 8 0

1 7 C O N S T R U C . A l l T O . F T A U T R F S 2 . 8 2

1 8 C O N S T R U C . N A V . E T A F R O . 2 . 7 9

1 9 I N D U S T R I E T E X T I L E F T H A B . 2 . 9 3

2 0 I N D U S T . C U I R F T C M A U S S . 2 . 8 2

2 1 B O I S . M E U R L F S . I N n . D I V . 2 . 9 8

2 2 I N D U S T . P A P . F T C A R . 2 . 8*>

2 3 I N P R I M I R I F » P R F S S F # F P I T I ON 2 . 6 7

2 4 C A O U T C H O U C E T M A T . P L A S T 2 . 8 5

2 5 BA T . » G E N I f C I V I L 2 . 8 4

2 6 C O M M E R C E 2 . 8 2

REGRESS I ON FOR THT TRFNCH PRODUCTIVITY FOUATIONequation type i : ln i f / o i = A *■ R«(E/0MT-D *■ onCLTA

EOOLAG

.02

. 0 3

.02

.02

.02

.02.02.02.02.02.02.02.02. 0 2

. 0 2

. 0 2

. 0 2

.02.02.02.02.02. 0 3

. 0 2

.02

. 0 2

f HL NO

- . 6 5

- 1 . 0 9

-.*5 - . 7 ?

- .7*1

- . 6 7

- . 7 7

- . 8 2

- . 5 9

- . 6 7

- . 8 - . 7 1

- . *19

- . 3 5

- . 2 3

-• 50 - . 6 1

- . 9 3

- . 2 9

- . 3 9

.OR- . 6 1

- .70- . 6 7

- . 7 3

- . 9 3

RRARSO

. 9 9

. 9 7

. 9 9

. 9 2

.07. 9 9

. 9 2

. 9 9

. 9 9

.98. 9 9

. 9 9

.«>7

. 9 7

. 9 7

. 9 8

. 9 7

. 9 9

. 9 5

. 9 8

. 9 8

. 9 9

. 9 3

. 9 8

. 9 8

. 9 1

RHO

.OH

. 2 9

. A . 14

. 2 4

. 40

. 2 3

- . 0 7

. 7 1

. 5 7

.22

.02 - . 1 8

- . 2 1

. 3 7

. 4 4

- . 6 2

.28 - . 5 4

- . 37

- . 0 7

- . 31

. 2 7

. 19

- . 2 3

. 2 3

Appendix Table

14 Estim

ation results

of the

Labor P

roductivity Equations

Type I

with U

nconstrained C

oefficients

R E G R E S S I O N F O R T H F F R T N C M P R O D U C T I V I T Y F Q U A T I O N

E Q U A T I O N T Y P E 3 *. L N t U O l = A ♦ W M E / Q l U - n ♦ C * O E U A

CONST E 0 0 l » G r m n o R B A P S O RHO

2 7 R E P A R . E T C O M . OE L ' A U T O . 2 . 9 5 . 1 2 - . 6 5 . 9 9 . 1 0

2 8 H O T E L S . C A F F S t S E S T A U . 2 . 6 1 • l' 3 - . 8 3 . 7 0 . 0 7

2 9 T R A N S P O R T S 3 . 0 2 . 0 2 - . 6 5 . 9 8 - . 1 7

1 0 T E L E C O M M U N I C A T I O N S F T P O S T F S 2 . 8 R . " 2 - 1 . 1 2 . 9 9 . 0 6

3 1 S E R V I C E S M A R C H . A U X F N T R . 2 . 6 3 . 0 2 - 1 . 0 6 . 9 1 - . 1 2

1 ? S E R V I C E S M A R C H . A U X P A R T . 2 . 8 * . 0 2 - . 7 7 . 7 9 . 0 4

3 3 L O C A T I O N . C R E 0 I T - H A 1 L I M H O . 2 . 7 6 • 0 2 • 0 7 • B 3 . 5 5

3 4 A S S U R A N C E S 2 . 7 6

CMo• GO•1 . 9 9 . 3 9

3 5 O R G A N I S M F S F I N A N C I E R S 2 . 8 8 • 0 2 - . 9 * 1 . 9 7 . 5 5

OvK>

F0RFCAS1 FOR!

SEC 10R

P9

n 11 i ? I 41 6 1 7I PI 920 21 22 222425 29 <p 21 32i x 35 3 6 iP 3 9 4' ! *11 42 q3 qq qs q * q? qp49525q565 75859 t r t 1 f>6 2 «q6 5 66 69I I 727 2i q1517IP19prif i tR7eq

A RP IT U l 1UPEp e theH O I I I L l F , i f PMI I F , AGfi COKEF A T I I O N PE 1 KOI r R A f t I N e f . l E C l R I C J l E n i S l R J R U GA7 n l S l P l R l i f E » U f 1 CHA I F F AGE I R R S I O f R l l G I f P R O u . DE L M C I E R HE1 AUX NON FERREHX M N E RAMX H I vERSi*a i e r . n r c o N i R u n i oVERREchihie hineRai F

C H I M I E PPGANIOI IF PARACHJ MIEP R O O l l l l S PH ARH ACEI'1 1 FCNOERIEST R A V A I L OES K E l A l J X MlERjEl H 1»5 H f t l E R I r L n * A R H E H F N lM C H J N f S H E R l R E A l l

H a 1E R I r L f ' L F c l R l O l l r P A l E R l h I I E r i R C N I Q l l E 0 U I P E H E N 1 1 E N A G f R V F H l r l l l f S a U I O N O R K E C CMS 1 R U C I I ON N 4 A[ E C O N S 1 R . a f R O N a U I i O U e I N S 1 R11MEN1S E l H A I E R ANnESL A ! 1 F 1 O R O H U I 1 £ L A I

C O N S E R V F SP A I N E 1 P A U S S E R I E PROD t l 1 s n u G R A I N

C O R P S G R A S A L I H F N 1 A I

a i i i r e s p p o n . a l i m p n i P O I S S O N 5 E 1 A L C O O l S RCNAIE 1 E R I E

O I J V R a G f EN F I L E S A R 1 I C L E S EN r t t R

CM A l J S S M R r S H A R I L L E K F N 1 P R OD p H F 0 1 S PE I Rl E S P a P I E R , CAR I O N PRE S5E t l H P R I M E R I E # E 0

p n e u m a i i o u c sP R O O . P L A S 1 I 0 1 E S I N D I I S I P I F S n l V F R S E S P A 1 I K E M E l GEN i r r i RE P A R A 1 I 0 N A L I O ,

H 0 1 E I S . C A F E S . R E S 1 A M R 1 R AN SP F F R R O VI A R E S

1 R A N S P R 0 I J 1 I E R S OE K A t I R E S 1 RAN SP 1 E R R E S N A v j R A l I O N I N 1 E R I F L R 1 R A N S P 0 R 1 S A E R I f N S S E R V I C E ? A U * 1 I . I A I P E S

1 E I E C O K H I I N I CA1 I O N S <E R V I CE A U * FN 1 R F P R I

L O C A l I O f i p i C R C n i l - R C RE0 1 1 - R A J L I MHO R I I I E N S E I G N E M E N 1 ( W AR THA

REFERENfE F0RETAS119 16 I 9 7 P 1979

75P. eqp £921*5 . 125 1211 3 4 . 137 144

6 . i2591 . 2 6 t 9 2 14 421 12. 2352 24745H1 . 693 72?R6 2. ?q 7 996

5 5 . 1 10 1161 1. 6 6

26P . * 5 3 2 115 7 . 7 P 622 2 . 25 214 7. 5q 5 79 P . i n 14

34 1 . 459 4634 9 4 . 6 0 7 63 P1? ' . 210 22133 7. 275 394796 . P65 9 1 ••

1 2 7 2. 1511 1 5 P 95 2 5 2 . n o t e ‘ 225

75. 117 1134 - 1 . 512 5 J f

1 9 5 5 . I P 20 19145 2. 65 t P

5 9 . . . 5 CP 5243 2 2 2 . 2224 2 4552 1 5 9 . 3'.'9 6 22*6

2 7 « . 2*2 2971 1 3 8 . 1219 12 £2

5 4 0 . 555 56416 2 . 166 1 15274 . 2 72 2661 2 2 . 122 139

7 . 6 9 134 5 . 47 4 9

266 . 245 251?25 3. 279 293

1 'j . 1 2 1 3J 5 . IP 621 1 . 1 2 1 3

12 P. 131 12 82 7 5 . ?H 7 2 ,t2

163P . 1 7 4 P J63P1 5 7 . 166 1 7 7555 . 69^1 126

2 2 9 6 . 2"; ,12 26311 >j1 , 119 125

2 7 . 4'1 421 146 . IV 96 11556 6 8 9 . 7146 1515

1 2 . 1 2 149 5 . 11 1 H 6

1 2 2 5 . 1 ’ 79 1 4 5 )1 6 P. 1 99 21 S1 3 9 . 1 b i 1 5 P

14 . IP 1 91 5 3 . U 7 1 161 6 5 . 2 ’ 1 21 1

3 1 9 3 . 2 5 ^ 2 2 7t 56 1 ; 3 . 6 ' ?" 2 6 2131 5 4 9 . 1 165 1 PitI ' l l 5 . 1 " 9 6 1 1 5 3I t 't * . 45 <2

1 901)

936 • 126. 151 •

3.2819.2 595.

n 5.l l (45. 121.I .39(..?6.

29.60.n .5'*6 .

610. 222. qt 4. 95q.

1661. 5q t ? .s i l t2ui:e.

72. 561 . 2575.

3416. 311.1 J i5 . 612. 183. 3 01'. 146.

16 . 5 2 .

2 7<*. 3"|R.

1 3. fit . 1 3.

1 4 5 . 31 7.

1 9 2 9 . 1 9 5 . 761 .

2 761. 121 .qq. 121?. lee?. 1 4 .

I l l . 1 5??.22;*. 166. 2'>. i<>q. 2 22. 21*81 .

6624. 1 94P . 1 2‘•9. 5^46 .

19P1

97 1 .i q q . ise.

3 .3 ^ n t . 2 7 1 0 .

79e . 1 * 9 1 .

1 2 7 .I .

4 C 7 . 9 ' J. 4 0 . 6 2 . P I .

* 2 9 . 6 9 1 . 2 4 ? . 4 3 2 . 9 9 1 .

1 7 4 1 . 5 7 2 4 .

IW :20 9 7 . 7 5 .

5 P 5 . 2 6 e 9 . 3 5 6 1 .

3 2 5 . 1 4 ( 5 .

6 3 9 . 191 . 3 1 3 . 1 52 . 80.

5 4 . 2 P 2 . 3 2 1 .

1 4 . 9 H .1 4 .

151 . 3 3 1 .

2^1 q .1 94 . 7 9 5 .

2 e f l 3 . 1 2 7 .

4 6 . 1 2 6 5 . P 2 3 q .

1 5 . 1 1 6 .

1 ^ P 9 . 2 2 9 . 1 7 3 .

21 . 1 9 ? .

q ' f e £ r691 7 .2 ^ 3 q . 1 2 6 2 .

5 2 6 9 .

S F R i r :

1 9 P 2

'?? /:1 6 5 .

4 .3 1 4 9 .2 P 2 P .

P 2 6 . 1 1 4 2 .

122 .1 •

4 2 6 . 9 4 . 4 ? . 6 5 . P4 .

5 5 4 . 7 3 3 .

? 5 f . 4 5 3 .

1 ( 4 4 .1 P2 4 . 5 9 9 6 .

»??: 2 1 96 .

7 P . 6 1 2 .

2 P 1 7 . 3 7 3 6 .

2 4 t « . 1 4 71 .

6 71* • 2 0C . 2 2 P . 1 5 9 .

6 2 . 5 7 .

2 96 . 3 3 7 .

i q .9q . 1 4 .

1 5 P . 3 4 6 .

2 1 1 " . ? P 2 . P 3 2 .

3 0 1 9 . 1 4 4 .

4 P * 1 2 2 5 . P 6 2 4 .

1 6 . 1 2 ? .

1 6 6 4 . ? 4 i .1 P I .

2 2 .? ’. '2 . 2 4 3 .

• *?K 2 . 7 2 4 5 .

2 ! 2i .1 72 2 .

n o v e r n m f n i r x p e n o i i i j r e s

19 0 3

•H i:I 74 .

4 .33V 7 . 29P1 .

P 79 . 1 2' t 0 .

1 3 9 .R .

44 7 . 9 9 . 44 . 6 P • H 9 .

5P 2 . 7 6 9 . 26 6 . 4 75 .

K 9 6 .1 915 . 6 2 9 7 .

l i t :231 7 .

P 2 . 6 4 4 .

2 95 P . 3 9 2 4 .

35 7 . 1 5 4 5 .

7(<3 . 21 U . 34 5 . 1 6 7 . «* 7 . 6 3 .

2 1 1 . 354 .

1 5 . 9 9 .1 5 .

166 . 764 .

2 2 1 5 . 2 1 3 . P 75 .

31 71 . 151 .

51 • 1 2 9 2 . 9». 5 7 •

1 6 . 1 2° .

1 74-* . 2 5 2 ,

• ! i : 2 1 2 , 2 55 .

q 4 6 5 . 76' ■ P .

2 2 2 7 . 1 ? P 9 .

5 7 9 6 .

1 9P4

1P1

1U 3 46 71 92

6C5 POI 2 11 49 5

1141

i n

tic

372 i 6 (jP

732

9162

I 6I f 3 1 6 172 37 9

2 3 1 6 222 9 1

53

123i ei 9 263

' t t2 2 a

t o 2:

1985

• 1 1 6 5 .• 1 7 2 .• l e e .• 4 .• 3 5 8 4 .• 3 2 3 1 .• 95? .• 1 3 0 1 .• 151 .• 6 .• 4 8 5 .• 107 .• 4 P •• 74 •m 96 .• 611 .• 6 3q •• 28 9 .i • 5 1 5 .• l i e p .0 2076 .• 6 8 2 5 .• l q i .• 7 0 3 .• 2 5 0 0 .• 6 9 .• 6 9 e .

3 ? 0 7 .• 4 ?5 3 •• 3 6 7 .• 1 6 7 5 .• 7 6 2 .• 2 2 8 .• 3 74 .• 16 1 .• 9 5 .• 6 5 .• 3 3 7 .•• M ’ :o 1 0 7 .• I £ *o 1 H 0 .• 394 •• 24 01 .• 2 3 1 .0 94 6 .• 34 31 .a 1 6 3 .• 5 5 .• t 508 •o 9 6 1 7 .• l f i .• 1 3 9 .• I P 95 .• 2 7 ^ .• 206 .• 2 5 .• 2 2 9 .• 276 .• q p q o .• e 24 7 •• 2 4 2 5 .• 15 06 .• 6 26 3 .

Appendix Table

15 D

etailed Results

of the

Reference Forecast

r0R FCAS1 FOR REFEREMCF F ORE CAS)SEC 1 OR 1 9 1 6 I 9 » P 1 9 / 9

8 5 SAN IF l e p i . i 1 2*9, 2 2 3 9 .8 6 A u i r e s s f r v i c e s m a r c 3 3 J 6 . 3 6 4 3 . 2 t 31 .8 / a s s u r a n c f s 1 4 6 . 1 6 1 . 1 7 2 *e e f i n a n c e 1 6 C . 1 6 6 . 1 7*5.

T 0 1 A l 6 4 3 6 7 . 6 6 4 4 4 .

1 9*0 2 3 4 9 .

’ Htt:1 8 3 .

1 5 5 2 1 .

F O R F H A S l FOR R EFFRFWCF FORECASTSEC 1 OR

Ii45 »> 9I* 11

13 I <1 1 6 1 7i e1 92 0 2) 22 23 ?4 2 5 ?9TO213 2333 536 3P 3 9 4r*414 2 13 4<l4 546 4 1 4 8 4 9

I I565?5 p5 9/•'616?6 364

AG R I CUl H I R E P f C H FH H I J I L I F » l . I f i MI I F . Af i f i COKEF «C11 CN PF 1 R 0 1 F R A F F I N F

E L E n l R I c I l E O l S l R i P UG A 7 n j S l R i n i i F E Al l E l c H Al J fF AGE URPS I HE RUG I F P ROD . OF L ' A C I F R

ME 1 Al lV NON FERREUX M N E R A 11X n i VERS

M A l E R . OF CON 1 R l l f l | 0 VE RRE

C H I H I E M I N E R A L F C H I MIE 0 f in AN I 0I1E p a r a c h i h i r F R O O L ' I I S PH ARM ACEU11 F O W I E R I E S 1 pa v a 1 1 n r s M f i a u x m a i f r i f l m i p s

m a u r i f i o * a r m f m f n iP A CH I N F S n E P t P E A l l

M a U R I f L f L E C I R i O U e M A 1 E R I F L F l F C l R O N I O U

E O I I I P F M E N I HFNAGFR v E H l c U l FS A U l O M O f t H E C ON S 1 R I I C 1 I ON N » W « I E C 0 N S 1 R . AFROMa I H l O l l f l N « = l R I I M E N i S E l MA1EH VI ANpF<1I A l l F l P R O O I I I S I A I C O N S E R v p S P A I N F 1 P A 11 S SF R I F

PROD II I I S n ‘ » nR A iN C OR P S GR A S A L I M E M 1 A I SIJrRFA U 1R FS PROO. A L I M F N 1 P O I S S O N S E l AL COOL S

n O M N E I f R I F OL'VRAr F e n f r f s A R l I c l e s e n C U l RCH 4 L S S UR E S H ( n i l I f M F N I PROD n n S O l S

K E l l f t l FS

^ r e I S eV i MPI? lV?[rR I F * E H

w rv v m -5I 0II f*'

7 6 - 7 8 7 8 - 7 9 79 - e<*‘ 8 U - M

5 . 77 ” V . w 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 3. U U 5 . 1 7 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 3

1 . 1 1 5 . 1 1 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 3- 2 9 . 2 9 5 . 1 1 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 3

. 2 5 5 . 1 7 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 35 . 5 3 5 . 1 7 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 39 . 2 1 5 . 1 7 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 34 . P 1 5 . 1 7 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 3

4 1 . 4 2 5 . 1 1 4 . 92 4 . 4 3- 2 6 . 1 5 5 . 17 4 . 9 2 4 . 43

1 4 . 7 7 5 . 1 1 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 31 6 . 9 8 5 . 1 7 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 3

4 . 5 8 5 . 1 7 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 37 . 1 9 5 . 1 7 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 3

- 1 5 . 4 8 5 . 1 / 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 ?1 6 . n 2 5 . 1 7 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 3l u . e s 5 . 1 1 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 31 1 . 1 4 5 . 1 7 4 . 9 2 4 . 43

5 . 4 9 5 . 1 / 4 . 9 2 4 . 434 . 2 4 5 . 1 1 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 34 . 9 1 5 . 1 7 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 3

- 2 . 7 4 5 . 1 7 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 31 9 . 4 4 5 . 1 7 4 . 92 4 . 4 J1 2 . 1 6 5 . 1 / 4 . 9 2 4- 3 . 5 1 5 . 17 4 . 92 4 . 4 31 1 . 8 <J 5 . 1 1 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 3- 7 . 2 1 5 . 1 7 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 3

- 1 4 . 8 9 5 . 1 7 4 . 92 4 . 4 31 9 . / 5 5 . 1 7 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 3

2 . 2 0 5 . 1 7 4 . 92 4 . 4 33 . 5 (. 5 . 1 / 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 31 . 2 8 * 5 . 1 / 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 3' • V , 5 . 1 7 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 3- . 3 7 5 . 17 4 . 92 4 . 4 34 , r , 2 5 . 1 7 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 3- . 1 2 5 . 1 7 4 . 9 2 4 . 432 . 2 0 5 . 1 1 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 3

i - H 4 . 9 2 4 . 435 . ■ 1 5 . I 7 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 39 . 5 4 ! • * 1 4 . 9 ? 4 . 4 31 . 9 8 5 . 1 7 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 34 . 4 5 5 . 1 / 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 31 . 1 7 5 . 1 / 4 . 92 4 . 4 32 . 1 6 5 . 1 7 4 . 5 2 4 . 4 33 . 2 ' j 5 . 1 / 4 . 92 4 . 4 33 . 4 4 5 . 1 / 4 4 . 4 3

11 . 5 0 5 . 1 7 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 '4 . 3 9 5 . 1 7 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 *5 . 4 6 c . l / 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 33 . 9 P 5 . 1 1 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 *

sfrif: fowernment expenditurfsi « e i 1 982 1 9e3 1984 19«5

2 4 5 3 . 4 1 9 e .

1 8 9 . 191 .

2 5 6 9 . 4 3 9/ .

1 9 8 . 2 H . .

26 9 8 . 4 6 1 7 .

2 t -8 . 2 1 1 .

280 9 . 4816 .

21 6 . 21 9 .

29 25 5005

2 25 2 28

7886 3 . e ? / n j . P6 7 4 9 . 9 u 2 P 9 . 9 4 O T 0

GPOUTH R A T F S F O R : GOVERNMENT EXPE fcO1 TUFF S

8 | - e 2 8 2 - 8 3 8 3 - 8 4 8 4 - 8 5

5 . U 2 4 .r>8 4 . 1 45 .i>2 4 *C8 4 . 1 4* . C 2 4 . 0 8 4 . 1 45 . 1 2 4 . T8 4 . 1 45.1>2 4 . 0 8 4 . 1 45 .< 2 4 . r e 4 . 1 4

4 . 0 9 4 . 1 45 .U2 4 . r e 4 . 1 4•5.172 4 . 0 8 4 . 1 45 . 0 2 4 . n e 4 . 1 45 ,V7 4 . £ 8 4 . 1 45 . 0 2 4 . 0 8 4 . 1 45 .1 2 4 .CH 4 . 1 45.T 2 4 . 0 8 4 . 1 45 . 1 2 4 .C8 4 . 1 45 . C 2 4 . n e 4 . 1 45 . 1 2 4 . c e 4 . 1 4*5.12 4 . 0 8 4 . 1 45.1 ' 2 4 . 0 9 4 . 1 45 . 0 2 4 . ne 4 . 1 45 . 0 2 4 . 0 0 4 . 1 45 . 1 2 4 . c e 4 . 1 4

4 .Q8 4 . 1 45 . 1 2 4 . c e 4 . 1 4

4 . 0 8 4 . 1 45 .»•? 4 . c e 4 . 1 45 . 12 4 . c e 4 . 1 45 . 0 2 4 8 4 . 1 45 . 12 4 .18 4 . 1 45 . 0 2 « , ' j e 4 . 1 45 . 1 2 4 . c e 4 . 1 4

4 . 1 e 4 . 1 45 .'>2 4 . ' I p 4 . 1 45 . 1 ' 2 4 . 0 8 4 . 1 45 .1*2 4 »l'R 4 . 1 45 . P 2 4 . 0 8 4 . 1 45 . 1 2 4 . ue 4 . 1 45.1 2 4 .DR 4 . 1 45 . 0 2 4 d 4 . 1 4•5 . 1 2 4 . 0 8 4 . 1 45 .*• 2 4 o i e 4 . 1 4* . 12 4 . ’*8 4 . 1 4•=.1.2 4 . » e 4 . 1 45 . 12 4 ,16 4 . 145.1 ' 2 4 . 0 8 4 . 1 45 .1 2 4 . ce 4 . 1 45.« 2 4 . 0 B 4 . 1 45 .< ? 4 . be 4 . 1 4* • r 2 4 .L/e 4 . 1 45 .! 2 4 .Ce 4 . 1 4

<r>*>

f o r e c a s t f o r :

Se c I 0 R

I N T U S T R I F S O i v F R S E S R A l I f T r ' l E l R E ^ I F C l RE PAR A 1JOM A I l f ) .H O T E l S » C A F E ? » f i F S T A | | R1 R a NSP F f RROv I a r e s 1RANSP R n u i l E R S OF H

A I M RE * T RANSP I eR R E ^ N A V I G A T I O N I N l F R I E i R T R AN S P OR T S AERTFNS ^ R v i C F 5 A U * n M I R E S TE l Er .OMMI INI CAT (ONS ‘ E R V I C E A U > E N l R E p R l

LOCATION f t c R F n i i - n C R E D I T - 8 A f L I H M O P 1 L I | N S E j G M E H f N T ( M a R f H A

AUTRE S v i CE« MARC A SSUR ANCF S F I N A N C FTOT A|

RE F FR E N CE FORECAST

6 5 6 6 6 9 11 72n7475 77 1 p #o I* > If 1e?p4p.t

p i p p

16- l » i a - 19 ? 9 - e u e o - f i i— —------ — — — — — — — - - — __ - — _

2 . 4 6 5 . 1 1 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 3' 0 - r 5 . 1 7 4 . 9 2 4 . 434 . o e 5 . 17 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 33 . 11 5 . I 1 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 ?6 . 1 ' 5 01 1 4 . 92 4 .43e . P 4 5 . 1 1 4. 92 4 . 4 ?2 . e e 5 . 1 t 4 .92 4 . 43

1 3 . 39 5. 17 4 . 9? 4 . 4 34 , 4 1 5 . 1 J 4 . 9 2 4 .434 . 2 3 5 . 1 ? 4 . 92 4 . 4 35 . C'4 5 . 1 1 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 3

e2 5 . 1 ? 4 . 92 4 . 4 36 . 7 4 5 . 1 1 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 33 . 9 1 5 . 11 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 3? . J 2 5 . 1 1 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 34 . 3 9 5 . 1 ? 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 34 . 5U 5 . 1 7 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 35 . 9 9 5 . 1 7 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 31 .P 6 5 . 1 } 4 . 9 2 * . « 33 . 1 2 5 . 1 1 4 . 92 4 . 4 3

FORECAST FORI

SECTOR

1a3 <1 5 P 1 2

14 I f 1 7 1 P 1 0I?222 32 4252627

2 8 2 931

3 2 j •* i<\35

3 6«n414 ?

4 3 45

4 6 4 7

AH t i t Cl l l H I R E SYL V l r U L T U R F PE CHEH O I I I I L F t L I P N I T F» Af iG C 0 K E F AC 1 I ON P E T R O I e R A F F l N E 5 i n E RUG I F

P R O D . OE L ' A C l E R f E T A t X NON F E R R E U *

M I N E R a U X n l V F R S M A T E R , n r C O N T R U C T I O vERRF

C H I H I F M I N F R A L F c h i m i f ORG a n i o u eP ARACHI^IrFROn (JI 1 S Ph ARP A C E H 1 I

F ONOE R I p«;T R A V A I L tie S J1FT AUX

M A F . H I N f S ARRI COL FS

e V i i I V k f V t V tt n i \ s5i r i e l M a IE RI EL M TP S M A C H I N E S OE Hl . REAU

M a U R I F t f'L E d R l OU E HAJ f .RJ FL F I EC IRON 10 U

K a T E R I f L I L E C T R O N i O U E OIJI FT MEN T MFNAGF R VE H I c U l FS a H T O M O h i L e I N ' l R I I H E n i S ET N AT F R V I A N n F SI a t t FT PRO n i l i s I AICONSERVE?FROO H T 5 nu RR A I n CORPS GR AS AL I M t N T A I ?UCRE

R EFE R E NC E FORECAST

19 I t 19 7 P 1979 19P0— — — — — — — — ------—

3 5 9. 1 15 . 3 R 7. 4 3 4 .. 3 . 4 . 4 . 4 .

- i l e . - 1 2 1 . - 1 2 * . - 1 3 1 .- 2 . - 2 . - 2 . - 2 .- fc • "" *1# - 7 . - 9 .

3 e ? . 444 . 4 5 5 . 4 < e .251' . 4 66 . 4 9 J . 5 1 9 .2u4 . ? 2 5 . 2 4 2 . 251 .

2 3 . 24 . 2 e. 2 4 .3 1!. ! ? , 3 2 . 32 .92 . I l l . 121 . 133 .

2 3 5 . 2 e i . 2 9 3 . 3 1 9 .• 2 3 5 . 2 4r.l . 34 7 .2 4 6 . ? i n : ^ 3 2 l 3 6 0 .

59 2 . 743 . J f S . 84 7 o4 2 2 . 4pf i . 5»i 2 . 5 3 3 .4 4 . *»* . 4 9 . 5 1

5 9 1 . 6 2 9. 6 5 2 . 6 p 4 :336 . 3 1 2 . 321 . 354 .5 »e. 6 6 2 . 723 . 766 .2 7 2 7 . 29 15 . 22«>< . 34 12 .5 j 2. 4 J9 . 4P4. 5 6 9 .2 2 3 . 2 5 9 . 2 7 5 . 2H6.■* i •- -»v . 311 . 4 2 P . 4 92 .4 2 2 . 5 1 9 . 5 52 . 5 77 .2 / 3 . 3 2 3 . 2 2 fi . 355 .4 * 1 . - (<«2. 62 4 . 796.1 745 . 2 - i c* . 2 ' H » . 22i*6 .2 4 2 . 2H2. 3 2 5 . 3 7 4 .> 2 9 . 71 o . 7 2 5 . 711 .1 2 4 4 . 1 4 . 2 . 1 4 6 3 . 1 5 3 6 .131 . 12M. 12 6 . 1 4 3 .4 P 1 . 6 1 1 . 62 7. 6 5 P .

- 1 2 . - 1 5 . - 1 5 . - 1 5 .2 4 6 . 4 1 6 . 4 2 4 . 4 3 5 .

GROUTN R A T F S F O R I GO VF RNPENT E X P E M I J T I R E S

f l l - 6 2 P 2 - P 3 8 3 - B 4 8 4 - P 5

4 . 74 5 . 0 ? 4 . « e 4 . 1 44 . 7 4 * . 1 2 4 . 0 8 4 . 1 44 . 7 4 5 . 1 2 4 . ^ 8 4 . 1 44 . 74 * ? . 0 2 4 . ) 6 4 . 1 44 . 7 4 5 2 4 . ^ e 4 . 1 44 . 7 4 5 . 1 ? 4 . o e 4 . 1 44 . 74 5 . 1 ? 4 .CP 4 . 1 44 . 74 5 . 1 : 2 4 . OP 4 . 1 44 . 7 4 5 . 1 ? 4 .<’ (* 4 . 1 44 . 7 4 5 . 0 2 4 .QP 4 . 1 44 . 7 4 5 . 1 ? 4 .»'P 4 . 1 44 . 7 4 4 . 0 8 4 . 1 44 . 7 4 -5 . 1 2 4 .CP 4 . 1 44 . 74 5 . t = 2 4 . 0 0 4 . 1 44 . 1 4 5 . 1 2 4 . r e 4 . 1 44 . 7 4 5 . 1 2 4 . c e 4 . 1 44 . 7 4 5 . r 2 4 . o e 4 . 1 44 . 7 4 5 . ( 2 4 . c e 4 . 1 44 . 7 4 5 . 1 2 4 .CP 4 . 1 44 . 74 5 . f 2 4 . 0 8 4 . 1 4

s f r i f : SUPER MARGIK / FXPO

19P1 1 9 e 2 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 4 1 9 0 5

4 2 3 . 4 4 5 . 46 7 . 4 9 0 . 5 1 3 .4 . 4 . 4 . 4 . 4 .

- 1 3 6 . - 1 4 1 . - 1 4 6 . - 1 5 1 . - 1 5 6 .- 2 . - 2 . - 2 . - 2 . > 2 .

- 1 2 . - 1 6 . - 2 0 • - 2 5 . - 3 1 .4 P 4 . 5 0 2 . 5 2 0 . 5 4 U . 5 6 0 .5 5 1 . 5 9 4 . * 4 2 • 6 9 2 . 74 7 .2 6C . 2 76 . 2 9 3 . 3 * 3 . 3 3 6 .

3 9 . 4 7 . 56 . 7 (< .. 3 2 . . I 2 • 3 2 . 3 2 . *1 .1 4 5 . 1 5P . 1 7 2 . 1 e 7 a 2 04 .2 2 8 . 2 4 6 . 3 6 6 . 3 e 6 . 4 0 6 .2 5 6 . 3 5 9 . 36 3 . 3 6 6 . 3 6 9 .2 9 3 . 4 4 3 . 5o i ) . 5 6 3 . 6 14 .9 1 5 . K n . 1 1 1 5 . 1 2 2 7 . 1 3 4 9 .5 6 4 . 6 ) 5 . 6 4 P • 6 9 3 . 7 29 .

S I . *«. . t 3 . * 7 . 72 .71 9 .

3 P 9 .7 5 0 .

4 4 5 .7 P2 . 4 9 9 . t i l : f l , ’ :

P 3 D . 3 7 76 .

q 21 .42 00 .

H l l .4 6 5 3 . i l i l : I 2 i e .

5 6 ^6 .6 6 6 . 7 P 5 . 9 2 2 . 1'., 7 9 . 1 2 5 9 .7? 6 . 3 2 6 . 3 4 e . 371 . 294 .5 6 5 . 6 4 7 . 74 G . P 4 6 . 9 6 5 .I l l 5 . M : 74 9 . 7 9 1 .3 72 . 2 95 . 444 , 4 7 1 .

l o i > 3 . 1 2 5 3 . 1 554 . I 91 6 • 2 6 * 5 .

2J522 72 . 2 5 ? e . 26 74 . 2 ^ 9 1 .

4 2 9 . 4 9 ? . 5 6 4 . 6 4 5 . 7 36 .P^ 3 . P I 9 . P 3 4 . fl 4P . P * 2 .

1 6 31 . 1 73 7 . 1 P4 7 . 1 9 6 2 . 2ne 2 .1 5 1 . 1 62 . 1 74 . m . i 9 e .6 9 3 . 7 7 2 . e i 4 . 6 5 6 .- 1 6 . -1 7 . - 1 7 . - i p . - 1 6 .44 9 . 4 6 5 . 4 0 2 . 4 9 9 . 5 I f i .

o\V/»

FORECAST FOR

SEC 10R

4P4 95?52545556 5 1 5P 5 9 6 ^ 61 t ? 6 ■* 64 6*i 6P

A l H R E S P R O n . A L r M r N l HOI S SON S F I ALCOOL 5

F I L S r 1 F I I F*> n n W K F l F R I E 0liVfi#Q F FN FtLFS C I I I R S f 1 PFAI IX A R l I f L F S FN C L I R

chaussurf*;H API LI FHPN 1 p r o i i n i l p o i s PE Uf lLF S P ^ P I F R t CARTON

PRE SSE . I P I P R I M E R I F » E O PNE t M A l l O U E S

P ROf ) . P I A S ! 1 0 I IFS 1 U ^ V ^ R l FS O I W E R S F 5

1 01 A|

REFER FNCF FoU EC AS 1

1 9 1 6 1 9 IP 1 9 1 ? 1 9 P( ’— — — ---------- -------—

* 9- 7 o 5 P . 614 9 4 . 6 6 I . 6 P 2 . 1 1 3

e . P . e . P- 3 5 . - ! 6 . - ? 1 . - 4 t ’6 5 2 . 1 5 4 . I BO. e n i

H . 4 . 5e 5 . 9 9 . U 3 . 1 0 6

21 I . 2 1 2 . 2 2 39 1 P . 9 9 2 . 9 9 2 . 9 92 ,

“ 1 1 1 . - 1 ? P . - 1 2 2 . - 1 36- 1 1 0 . - ? ' » P . - 2 2 4 . - 2 4 2- 5 1 I . - 6 6 5 . - 6 9 5 . - 1 3 3- - ' i t . - 34 . - 2 4 . - 3 53 1 9 . 36 4 . 3 1 7 . 4 I I6 6 . I P . * 2 . 66

- 6 5 1 . - P 2 6 . - 8 4 6 . - 6 1 2- 1 56 4 3 . - 1 156 7 . - 1 1 6 16 . - 1 9 9 4 5

0 . 0. u . «1,

FORECAST FOR

SET 10RR E F E R E NC E F 0 R F C A S 1

7 6 - 1 6 I P - 7 9 I 9 - P f

1?■»45 P i 46 7 P 92 I

? ! ? ? 2? 24 ?5

ViVP293 J 32 ■» i

3 4 353 6 4 ft4 1 4? 4 3 45 4 6 4 1 4 P 4 9

A G R i r m h i r eS * l VI F i l l 11IRF pfrutH0I5J 11. F *1 I GNI I F . AGGCOK E F » r 1 1 ON PF 1R0L F RAFF I N F

S I HER IJfi I F P ROO. OE L ' A C I F R

M E l f t l l X NON FFRREUX P P I E R A t l X 01 vERSm a i e r . o f c o N i » n r i 10VE FRf

C H I M I F M I N E R A I E C H I M I F ORG a N I Q U E PARAC m i M l FF f i n n I I IS PH ARM A C F l i l I

FONDL R I e S 1 R A v A i L r>ES H E 1 A L X

M a t H I N f S a r RI c o i F^M C h i NF S O L l l L e

E O l l i PM f N 1 I N o l l S I R t p L PA1E R I F L H I P S PatHINfS PE RIIREAK

M A l E R I f L H - E C 1 R I 0 H E

m w t t t t i M i i wE O I J I P F H E N I M FN AG FR V E H I c U L f S AinOMOnilf I N S 1R I IPEN 1 S F I M A I ER V I ANnE SL AJ 1 F I P R o n u i 1 ! L A I

C O N SE R V E ^PROD 1 1 1 5 OU GR AIM

CO» PS GR AS AL I M F N l a ISUCREA IJ l f i F S PRO 11. At I P ENT

n o i SSONS E l Al COOL S

? o l 9 5 . 1 1 06 . n e

- 4 . 6 6 - 1 1 . 9 3

6 . 90 1 5 . 2 1

1 . 2 5 2 . 4 54 . 1 1 9 . P 4 9 . 3 2

1 2 . 5 1 1 2 . 3 5 1 2 . 0 6

6 . 5H 2 . 9 53 . 1 1

- 2 . 1 2I . I I

4 . 4 5 - 9 . 6 9

I . I P 6 . f i 4

I f . 9 2 p . e 3 5 . 6 1 I . ' ! 6p . n

- 2 . 1 : 6 6 . I P — 13 I 2W41.12

2 9 . * ! 1 ? ! . P. 2 16 . 2 4

3 . 2 t.nr>

3 . P 6 • i'J4 1 . 9 I ?. 36

4 . 9 6 2 . 21

I P . 9 I - . <13 9 . 3 3 4 . 4 3 1 . 49 l . f ' 9 6 . 1 4

, 4 . 9 1 t . 1 1 2. 6? ? . 9 « . 9 . 16 P . 4 5

1 » . 30 6.11 1 5 . 2 ' .

6 . 364 . PI

2 9 . 604 . 4 9

1 5 . 2 2 4 . 3<4 . V- 7 . 6 P ? . 13 ? . « 4 1 . HI ? . 5P ? .2?

1 . 4 I. ) e

3 . 6 6• J 0 40 . 2 4 2. 96

6 . 0 9 3 . 5 1

I P . 2 3 - . 4 3 <5.25 5 . 43 2 . 16 e .331. 325. es

4 . PP 1 0 . 2 96. ijo

1 . 6 11 1 . 5 3

4 . 1 1 15 .CC

4 . 6 'J4 . f P

? I . 525 . 5 6

1 4 . 9 1 4 . 2 I5 . 165 . 1 2 4 . PP 4 . 1 ?2 . 143 . 31 3 .C 4

P i - P I

. 0 13 . 9 2

• i n35 , 5 P

3 . 3 3 63 . 14 1 7 .66

- . 4 3 9 . I P 5 . 9 ] 2 . 4 3 9 . 1 4 P . 0 9 5 . 9 3 6.115 . I P 9 . P 6 P . 33 C . 1 5

1 6 . 92 t . 9 P

14 . P I

t'M2 6 . n i

I . 5 6 1 4 . 6 9

4 . 2 46 . M I 6 , 1 5 5 . 3fc 3 . 5 6 3 . 1 5 3 . P4 3 .6 1

S F R I F : SUPER MARGI N / F X P O R T S

1 9P1 1 9 P? 1 9 P 3 1 9 P 4 | 9 e 5

6 3 . 6 6 . 6 9 . 7 3 . I t .1 2 9 . 1 5 2 . I I f . 8 ; »n . P ?5 .

9 . 9 . 9 . i a . 1 0 .- 4 4 . - 4 I . - 5 r. . - 5 4 . - 5 P .P 3 5 . P 5 9 . PP3 . 90 P . 9 3 3 .

5 . 5 . 5 . 5 . 5 .i n . 1 1 3 . 1 1 6 . l ? n . 1 2 3 .

2 3 6 . ? 4 P . 2 6 2 . 2 7 5 . ? 9 0 .9 9 2 . 9 9 2 . 9 9 2 . 9 9 2 . 9 9 ? .

-1 4 • . - 1 4 4 . - 1 4 e . - 1 5 2 . - 1 5 7 .- ? 6 2 . - 2 9 5 . - 3 3 3 . - 3 76 . - 4 2 3 .- 1 1 9 . - P 3 2 . - p e 5 . - 9 4 2 . - 1 0 0 0 .

- 3 6 * - 3 1 . - 3 1 . - 3 6 . - 7 P .4 2 5 . 4 51- • 4 1 4 . 4 9 9 . 5 24 .

9 0 . $5 . 9 0 . 1 I 3 a 1 0 1 .- 9 1 J . - 9 4 2 . - 9 1 4 . - 1 J l ) I . - I 0 3 £ .

2 1 4 I I . - 2 3 3 1 4 . - 2 5 2 9 1 . - 2 1 4 5 3 . - 2 9 1 9 6 .

' J . 1 . i ) . 0 . 0 .

GROUTH R A TE S FOR : SUPFR MARGI I

P I - P 2 P2 - P 3 8 3 - P 4 P 4 -P 5

5 . 0 4 « . 9 6 4 »P 6 4 . 1 6. » 0 . 0 0 J • JO

3 . 5 ? 3 . 5 1 3 . 5 5 3 . 5 3• OfJ • l O . 0 J . r j o

? P . 1 5 2 6 . 3 5 24 . 9 1 ? 3 . 9 i3 . 7 1 3 . 74 3 . 1 5 3 . IP7 .1*9 P . 01 I «P 9 1 . 9 75 . BP 6 . 3 5 6 . 6 2 1 . 3<i

1 9 . 3 0 1 6 . 1 2 I P . 2 3 1 1 . e l- . 4 3 - . 4 3 - . 4 3 - . 4 39 . 0 2 P . 9 7 P . 9 2 p . e 95 . I P 5 . 6 5 5 . 4 5 5 . 1 9

. . M i r • 94 • P 9 • 1912 . P ? 1 ? . P 4 1 2 .6 9 1 2 . 5 2n . 4 o 1 0 . 3 4 i c . 5 9 9 . 6 1

1 . 11 1 . 1 4 6 . 9 4 6 . I D6 . 3 0 6 . 3 2 6 . 3 6 6 . 3 94 . 3 6 4 . 2 3 3 . 9 > 3 . 1 1

1 4 . 4 7 1 ? . 1 2 1 1 . 2 6 1 1 . 2 21 1 . ! H 9 . 15 9 . 9 4 9 . 5 6n .<-5 l b . I P 1 «! . 3 1 9 , e iI P ..1 0 1 7 . 4 5 1 I . »2 1 6 . 6 46 . 6 7 6 . 5 3 6 . 5 6 6 . ? 9

14 . 5 3 14 .4 r 14 . ?P 14 . 1 6/ • " A 6 .1 2 t : » i

5 . 6 6 6 . 1 6

? 4 . « e 2 4 . r i 2 3 . 3 3 22 . P a6 . 5 1 •5 . 7 1 6 . C 3 5 . 5 u

1 4 . 7 1 1 4 . 5 4 14 . 3 6 14 .1 91 . 9 1 J »F ^ 1 . 1 3 1 . 6 56 . 4 P 6 . 3 3 6 . 2 3 6 . 1 31 . 1 fi I .< ‘ 7 6 . 9 9 6 . 155 . 4 5 c . 6 5 5 . 4 1 5 . 1 ?7 . 1 4 3 .16 3 . 04 2 .6 43 . 6 1 3 . 6 ? 3 . 6 4 3 . 6 14 . 6 9 4 . 14 4 . 7 6 4 . P 33 . 2 ’ 3 .1 6 3 . 1 4 3 .1<

E X P O R T S

166

sec tor 5 ? f 11 s f i f i l e s5 * flOfJNF 1 r R I E54 OIJVRAGE FN F j l FS5 5 C I I I R S r 1 P e a I IV 5ft A R l i r i E S FN C UI R57 C H A i i s s i i R r s58 H A B l L L F M F N l59 PROD Oi l ROIS t " MFI I r I E S 61 P A P I F R , CARTONt 2 PRES«.E. I*»PRIMe R i F»FO6 1 FNE LM A 1 1 Q U E St 4 P R OD . P L A S 1 I O I J F S6 5 J N O U S T R I E S n i w E R s r s6 P C O M M E R C E

101 At

F OR ECAS1 FORI REFERENCE FORFCAS1I t - »8 7 R- 79 7 9 - p r 6 0 - PI

— — — — ------------ _____ _ — _ _ _ _- 1 . 5 7 1 . 5 t 4 . 3 t 4 . 9 ?

. 9 / 4 . e t 6 . 2 7 9 , 4 17 . 5 5 ’ . 45 3 . 4 6 3 . 4 5

- t . P 3 1 . O t 4 . 5 1 5 . 4 1e . u 5 ; . 39 3 . 3 9 3 . 3 8

- 3 . 3 4 4 , 8 5 5 . 1 1 5 . 6 53 . 9 7 . o r , • JO . n o4 . 9 3 2 . 8 5 2 . 87 2 . B 8

I t ' . 5 2 e . f ' i 1 e , C 21 3 . 3 4 4 . 6 1 5 . 4 0 6 . 2 9

5 , 6 9 . 1 2 2 , C 2 4 . 2 16 . 8 1 4 . 21 5 . 6 0 6 . 1 5P . 6 t 4 . 0 2 5 . 2 1 5 . 3 5

1 2 . 6 5 ? . 39 3 . 15 4 . 2 95 . 9 7 6 . 31 6. 79 7.61*

. C t . O f . o r . ( ' 0

F O R E C A S T F O R

SECTOR

12■*45 P

1 4 1 t 17 1 p1920 2 ? 2 ? 25 2 t 31 3? 3*13536qr.414?«I3<144546 4 7 46 49<Zn.52535456575859

A G R I r i l l T I I R fSYL WFCUL H I RE

PE f l i tH Q U I l l F t l I GNI I E * AGG COKEF A C T I O N PETROL F R A F F I N E P R OD . OE L ' A C I E R

ME 1 M I X NON PERREUX M N E RAI IX 01 VERS

m a t e r , n r c o n i r u m j o \(E n re

C H I M I F M I N E R A L E P A R A C H I m i F

p R o o n n s p h a r m a c e i h iT P A V A I I DES ME1 AUV P A C H I N E S A G R I C O L F S

H A r H I N F S DE BUREAU M A T E R I E L E l EC 1R 10 HE

M a 1E R I r L f l ECT^ ON f O l l E O I I I P E M F M MENAGFH

t f H I d J l E S Al l TOMO R I l £ I N S T R U M E N T S E l N A 1 E R

t f l ANpCS

ioJsV6Jr^ Bonu' ,s lMP » J N F T P A H S S E R I E

P R o o u l i s n u g r a i n CORPS GRA S Al I M f N T A I SIJC RFAUTRES PROO. A L I M F N 1 ROBSONS El Al-cool S 1ARACS E l PROO.

F I I S E l F I L E S BCNNE 1FRI E

O I W R a G t r N F i t ES AR TI Cl E S FN CL IR

C H a l J S S l l r t r S H A R f L l FMFN T PHOn n i l ROI S

REFERENCE FORECAST19 76 1 9 7P 1919 19PP— — - - — — — —

- ? t 3 « e . — ?tt 02 a . - 2 0 0 5 4 , - 2U 2 94 .- 4 9 . - 4 5 . - 4 2 , - 3 9 .

- 3 3 I f . - 3 6 1 2 , - 31 31.! , - 3 6 11 ,- 5 8 9 . - 6 2 3 . - 5 9 3 , - 5 2 6 .

" 1 8 * - 1 9 . -1 9, - 1 4 .- ? m . - 3 3 t 9 , - 3 3 4 4 . - 3 4 4 1 ,

- 9 4 . - 9 5. - 1J J . - 101 *O1 - 19 , - 1 5 , - e t ,- 3 7 . - 3 8 . - 3 9 , - 3 9 .

- 1 4 ( i t , — 1 6 1 4 , - 164 I , - 1 6 8 P ,- 1 0 1 P. - 1 0 6 9 . - 1 1 J 4 . - 1 1 2 7 .

- 2 P . - 3 1 . - 3 2 , - 3 3 ,- 4 6 19. - 4 P 9 3 . - 5 0 2 7 . - 5 2 2 7 .- 6 8 1 4 . - I4M5 , - 1 746 , - e o P t ,-23<>2 . - 2 ? i e . - 2 3 1 2 , - 2 4 4 2 .

- 2 2 . - 2 5 . - 2 5 . - 2 6 .- 1 1 . “ I P . - 2 1 . - 2 2 ,

- 9 1 3 . - 1 1 1 5 , - 1 I t ' J , - 1 I * ) ? .- i P t t i . - 2 7 t P , - 2 4 S 1 , - 2 5 6 3 .- 2 9uH . - 2 9 3 0 , - 3 0 S 9 . - 3 1 6 4 .

- 9 : i 5 . - 9 1 5 , - 93P, . - 9 5 2 .- 3 0 2 8 . - 3 3 1 9 , - 3 4 14, - 35P3.- 1 4 ?i.4 , - 1 5 7 1 6 , - 1 1 u 24 , - 1 6 2 I P ,- 5 4 ' i U . - 5 5 P 6 , - 5 6 9 1, - 5 BrJ6.- 2 l 4 9 . - 2 1 * 2 . - 2 1 J 9 . - 2 2 1 1 .- 1 U d " . - 1 *» 3*1* - 1 J4 5. - K ’ 5 i ) .- 1 2 . ; 9 , - i ? ? r , - 1 3 2 2 . - 1 3 51 .- 9 2 9 , - i n i p . - J ' K E , — 1 u 11 ,

- 1 4 0 . - 1 3 1 . - 1 3 2. - 1 33.- 3 2 11. - 1 2 2 6 . - 3 2 1 2 . - 3 326 .- 4 5 t 7, - 4 5 1 * 0 , - 4 t S4 . - 4 8 1 9 ,- 8 2 3 . - P 6 2 . - 0 1 4 . - 88 i .- I J 3 . - t 2 0 . - 6 34 . - 6 4 3 .

- 5 2 9 t . - 5 4 5 3 . - 5 5 R 4 . - 5 7 4 3 .- 3 1 H , - 3 1 9 P , - 3 3 2 ' , - 3 3 60 ,- 1 3 3 / . - 1 36 4 , - 1 4 2 4 . - 1 4 5 9 .- 4 13 5 . - 4 1 * 9 . - 4 ? 15 . - 4 2 S 6 .

- 1 U 3 3 . - 1 J I 4 5 . - 1 * .1H 4 . - M 2 7 ( i ,- 1 3 1 . “ ■*26. - 3 i s . - 3 1 9 .

GROUTH RATFS FCR: SllPFR KARGINP I - 8 2 P2-P3 P3-P4 84 - 8 5

5 . 4 f 5 . 3 4 5 . 3 6 5 . 2 07. 66 7 .4 3 7 .54 t .4 72 . 8 3 2 . e i 2 . 9 2 2 . 8 22 . 7 3 2 .3 3 2 .45 1 .PP2 . 9 7 2 . 9 5 2 . 9 3 2 . 9 05 .32 5 .2 7 •J .24 5 . 1 6

. 0 0 • u? ij . ' )02 . 8 9 2 . 91 2 . 9 2 2 . 9 31 2 . P I 12 . 80 12 . 7 5 1 2 . 7 0

6 . 75 6 . 4 8 6 . 4 3 6 . 1 61 . 1 8 1 . 14 1 . 2 3 . 9 35 . 6 9 5 . 4 1 5 . 2 8 4 . 9 94 . 56 4 .3 2 4 «C6 3 . 811 . 5 7 3 . 4 0 3 . 3 4 3 . 1 2e . 5 5 P . 4 P 8 . 5 5 * . 5 4

.OP .1 P .OC .LI )

1 9P1

* 7

- I 34

s e r i f : SUPER MARGIN / PCE198? 1983 1984 1 985

• - 20 5 5 3 . - 2 a t 6 G . - 2 0 1 2 7 . - 2 0 705 .>• - 3 2 . - 2 8 . - 2 4 . - 2 1 .• - 37 5 3 . - 3 7 9 2 . - 3 e 2 t . - 3 P 3 8 .

- 41 4 . - 3 5 7 . - 3 0 4 . - 2 6 1 .O - 5 . - 1 . 3 . 6 .• -36 7* , - 3 78 5 . - 3 8 8 8 . t 3 9 4 5 .

i O - i c t . - 1 0 8 . - 1 1 1 . - 1 1 3 .• -93 . - 9 5 . - 9 7 . - 1 0 0 .

- 4 f*. - 4 0 . - 4 3 . -4 1.• -1 787 . - I P 3 C , - i e 7 i . - 1 P96 .• -1 1 91*. - 1 2 1 6 . - 1 2 4 2 . - 1 2 6 3 .« -34 . - 3 5 . -36 . - 3 1 .• - 5 t 4 7. - 5 P 5 1 . - 6 0 4 9 . - 6 2 0 1 .• -6 71 3 • -9< 89 . - 9 4 1 2 . - 9 7 1 8 .• - 2 t i r . - 2 t 84 . - 21 56 . - ? P 04 .• - 2 1. - 2 8 . - 2 9 . - 2 9 .• -24 . - 25 . - 2 t . - 28 .- 1 1 9 4 , - 1 2 3 4 . - 1 2 7 2 . - 13 05 .• -2 7 95 . -29U1 . - 3 c 2 3 , - 3 1 1 2 .• -33 75 . - 3 4 7 2 . - 3 5 8 t . -3 7 3 3 .

- 1 C 0 P . - 1 3 4 . - l o t 1 . — 108 1 .# - 3 P 5 J . - 3 9 5 8 , - 4 *6 > . - 4 1 4 1 .• -1 1< 5 7 , - 16P74 , -1 7 9 L . -1 72PO.• - t o 4 1 . - 6 1 6 5 . - 6 2 6 6 . - 6 3 8 3 .• - 2 3 4 9 . -24 f ’P . - 2 4 6 8 . - 2 5 2 7 .• - 1 0 6 5 . - 1 0 7 4 . - I u e 3 . - 1 0 9 2 .• -14 <,5 , - 1 4 3 6 . - 1 4 6 6 . - 1 4 9 5 .• - 1032 . -11 41 . - H 4 8 . - 1 0 4 3 .• - 1 3 4 . - 1 3 6 . - 1 3 1. - 1 i a .• - 3 4 4 3 . - 3 5 0 3 . - 3 5 6 1 . - 3 6 0 1 .• - 5l 84 . - 5 2 1 6 . - 5 3 4 1 . - 5 4 4 n .• - 9 i e . - 9 3 4 • - 94 9 . - 9 5 9 .• - 6 6 7 , - t 15 . - 6 8 2 . - 6 84 ,

- t f 7 5 . - 6 2 1 6 . - 6 3 3 7 . - 6 3 96 .• - 3 4 I t . - 3 5 1 6 . - 3 5 5 4 , - 3 5 9 0 .

' • -1 54 I . - 1 5 P 9 . -1 6 3 5 . - I t 18 .• - 4 4 9l , - 4 5 P I . - 4 6 1 2 . - 4 74 1 .

•- 1 0 7 * H ,

-?«?6 ,-1 ' J9H7 .

- 3 t 4 . -•155?: • ‘in?:

EXPORTS167

f o p f c a s t f o r

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t'l ftURlpSf i P * P I E R • CAR IONt ? PRr SSr • ! MPPf M F R I F , p n6 3 PMe IjM M I Ol l ES6 4 P R o n . Pi a s i i q u f s6 5 I N n L S 1 R I E S m V E R S F 5 6 7 RE cUPF R a l I ON6 8 COMMERCE

i o i « i

REFERENCE FOHEf . AS !

1 9 1 9 1981)

- 1 3 3 7 6 * - 1 3 7 7 0 .- 1 6 3 P . - 1 6 8 2 .- 3 9 6 7 , - 4 j 4 8 .- 1 5 7 7 . - 1 5 9 9 .- 1 3 * 2 . - m e .-/•tea. -9 j5 i .- 1 3 3 ? . - 1 3 8 3 «

1 5 * U 1 9 . 1 5 4 - 1 9 5 .

19 76 1 9 7 P

- 1 2 3 6 3 . - 1 ?6 76- 1 3 / 7 . - 1 5 ? o- 3 6 7 ’. . - 3 9 1 5- 1 4 5 5 . - 1 5 3 4

- 1 2 2 6 . - 1 3< 0- 7 76 1 . - 8 4 7 2

- 1 5 2 6 . - 1 2 5 31 4 21 5 3 l 14 7 18 7

C .

FORECAST FOP

SfClOfi12 3 <1 5 8

1 * 16 1 7 1 8 1 9 ?'> 2 7 232 5263132 3«l3 536 4 041424344454 6 4 7 494 950 5?5354565 7585 9 6» 61 6 ?63646 5 6 7

r u . 1 IJRE S v l VI C l l l 1UR F

M f , f»l InNI1p• AfiR COKFF « C 1 I 0 N PE 1R01 F R A F F l N Fp r o d , n r I * A r j t R

HE 1 a u x NON FERRFUX M I N E P A U X n I V F R S P A l E R . OE CON 1RUC1 (0VERRF

FROOL' I 1« P h * R K « C E 1 1 I I R a v a I L I1ES ME1 AUXp a c h j n e s a g r j c o i e sH 4 C H I M r S DE f l l l RE A l l

S S l i i i a E t K l U S f t uE O I J I P E M f N I U r N A f i F P V F H I C I J L E S AU 10M0 A I L F

I N S 1 R U M F N 1 S F I « A T f R t f l * N f T S

t M U U r $ " o m , I , s P A I N E l P A 1J S 5ER I Fp r o o i n s n u r r a i n

CORPS GR A S A L I M E N T A I SIJCRFa u i r e s p p o r . a l i ^ t n i f i o i SS ON S F 1 ALCOOL « lA«AC5> F i PROq- f i i s f i f i l e sp O H N F 1 p R I F Ol . 'Vf iAGE EN F I L F S A R l i r i E S EN Cl 1R

C H a l l S S U k r S H A R I L 1 EMFN T PROD n* ' p O I SPF l iB| F S P * P I E P . C AR 1 ONPRF S Sf t l M P R i k E9 f E . EO PNFUMallOUrs PROl J . P L A S l t O l F S I N T U I T R I F S n i V ^ R S F S

RF r UPER A l I O N

R E F F R E N C F F O R F f A S l

7 6 - 1 *

- . 6 9- 4 . 1 5

3 . 5 2 2 . 8 9 4 . 0 6 3.11'

. 6 5 7 . * n 1 , 2 c7 . 1 6

2 . 4 6 5 . 4 1 2,21 4 * 2 5

- 1 . 5 55 . 5 3 4 . 5 12 . 1 6

l o . 41. 3 9 . 5 6

4 . 7 1 3 . 3 8 1 . 7 ( 1 1 . 2 9 1 . 5 0 3 . 2 7 4 . 6 9

- 3 . 2 e- . ? e

• 142 . 3 7

- 4 . 711 . 4 7 1 . 4 5 l . ' I l

- . U 6 . 5 6

1^265.38 3 . 29 2 . 6 « 2 . 9 6

. 4 . 4 P - 9 . 1 8

7 8 - 79 7 9 - 8 ' i

. 13 1 . 2l>- 6 . 4 (.• - 8 . 4 3

. 51 1 . 1 1- 4 . 7 9 - 1 1 . 4 1- 2 . e? - 2 5 . 36

. « 3 1 . € 64 . 22 1 . 5 46 . 6 P 2 . 0 41 . 2 4 . 4 72 . 0 1 2 . 4 93 . 2 9 2 . 0 63 . P 6 2 . 122 . 7 3 3 . 9 94 . 6 0 4 . 3 92 . 3 1 2 . 9 7

. 9 3 2 . 7 71 6 . 5 2 2 . 4 u

4 . 39 4 . H»9 . 86 2 . 0 85 . 7 6 2 . 0 92 . 5 1 1 . 5 14 . 6 9 3 . 1 22 . ^ 2 1 . 1 51 . P 6 2 . C 43 . 6 5 2 . 3 91 . 4 7 • 462 . 49 2 . i e

- 1 . 3 1 1 . 1 1. 9 e • 54

1 . 1 1 1 . « 72 . 4e 2 . 6 81 . 3 6 1 . 5 32 . 27 1 . 4 82 . 3 9 2 . 8 63 . 8 1 1 . 1 84 . 35 2 . 46? . n 7 1 . 9 2— . 6 L» 1 . 841 . 1 5 2 . 8 15 . 52 3 . U;»7 . 1 4 2 . 6 91 . 3 2 2 . 0 32 , P 2 1 . 3 91 . 7 1 4 . 1 93 . 74 2 . 98

6 . 2 6 3 . f 4

e<»- e 1

1 . 1 3 - 9 . 7 9

1 . 6 4 * 1 3 . 9P - 4 7 . 2 9

4 . 5 P 1 . 4 ?1 . » 3 1 .1*1 3 . 3 5 2 . 4 ( 1 . 5 6 4 . 4 94 . 39 3 . 7 8 3 . 71

. 8 44 *2 . 11 . 5 4

. 6 72 . P i 3 . 3 9 1 . 1 8 2 . 2 6 2 . 2 7

• 38 1 . 8 92 .10

. 4 32 . 0 63 . U 82 . 0 72 . 1 7 3 . 7 5 1 . 0 5 2 . 35 2 . 2 62 . 713.C-9 2 . 72 2 , 2 ‘i 2 . 912 . 5 25 . 1 3 3 . 2 73 «P 5

STRIF!1 981 1 9 8 2 1 9 e 3 1 9 8 4

- 1 M 5 2 . - 1 4 8 3 5 . - 1 5 2 9 9 . - 1 5 7 7 9- 1 7 1 9 . - 1 8 1 8 , . -1 8 76 . - 1 9 3 8- 4 1 6 6 . - 4 2 5 1 * . - 4 3 4 2 . - 4 4 3 2— 1 6 4 ' . - 1 6 9 j . - 1 7 3 » . - 1 7 7 1- 1 4 4 8 . - 1 4 8 9 . - 1 5 4 4 . - 1 5 9 5- 9 3 4 6 . - 9 6 9 4 . - 9 9 90 . - 1 0 2 8 8- 1 4 3 6 . -1 * 12 . - 1 5 5 8 . - 1 5 9 9

1 5 7 8 1 9 . 1 61 7 5 9 . 1 6 5 2 78 . 16 8 7 4 2

( . 0 . J

SUPER MA R RI H / PCF

1 9 8 5

- 16 ? 66 . - 2 0 0 6 . - 4 4 84 .-ieo5.-1629.

- 1 0 5 4 2 . - 1 6 3 7 .

17 15 7 3 .

0 .

GROUTH R ATF S FOR! SUPER M A R GI N i

e i - 8 2 P 2 - 8 3 8 3 - 8 4 84 - 8 5

. 1 4 . 5 2 ^ 3 2 _ • i n-<* . 3 6 - 11 .6 7 - 1 3 . 2 2 - 1 4 . 8 8• 6 0 1 . 1.- 4 . 8 8 . 3 2

- P . 42 - 1 3 . 7 2 - 1 4 . 9 5 - 1 4 .1* 2- 2 8 . 9 8 - 8 4 . 5 2 .Od e i . 3 7

I . 9 7 2 . 9 P 2 . 7 2 1 . 4 6J 2 . no 1 . 9 6

$ . 2 5 2 .4 8 7 . 5 9 2 . 7 51 * 4 8 .6 0 . 8 3 . 1 82 . 4 7 2 . 4 0 2 . 2 3 1 . 3 53 . 1 2 7 .1 9 2 . 1 4 1 . 7 2

1 : 1 1 i l l *2 . 1 83 . 4 0

22

. 3 9

. 5 13 . 8 1 3 . 7 2 3 . 5 5 * . 2 52 . 9 1 2 . 8 5 2 . 6 8 1 . 7 41 . 9 5 2 * 5 9 2 , 4 ‘J 1 . 3 5

1 0 . 8 7 4 . 1 5 4 . 8 6 5 . 1 83 . 9 2 3 . 4 1 3 . 0 8 2 . 5 57 . 3 9 3 . 8 1 4 . 2 J 4 . 9 46 .*11 2 . t e 3 . 2 7 4 • 1L3 . 11 2 . 5 6 2 . 5 7 1 . 9 33 . 9 3 2 . 8 2 2 . 5 e 2 . 1 31 . 5*J 1 . 7 5

1 . 3 12 . ' 7 l : s s

11 : U

2 . 9 6 ? . 5 3 2 . 4 9 t . 3 91 »>J 6 . P2 . 6 7 . 8 52 . " P 2 . 1 8 2 . M 2 . 0 1- . 5 6 . 8 9 . 6 4 - . 4 2

. 6 6 . 8 2 . 8 1 . 6 81 . 41 1 . 7 6 1 . 6 5 1 . 1 4

i l l ! f i i n2 . 4 J f . 6 3

1i n

1 . 5 3 1 . 2 4 1 . ) 1 . 2 71 . 9 5 2 . 3 2 1 . 9 5 . 9 32 . 3 8 1 . 1 6 1 . 1 9 1 .0 13 . 6 2 2 . 7 3 2 . « 6 2 . 6 12 . 2 ? 2 .1 2 1 . 9 9 1 • 4 P1 . 9 8 2 . 1 3 2 . 1 4 1 . 1 31 . P 3 2 . 3 4 7 . U9 1 . 4 04 . 83 3 . 1 2 3 . 1 4 ■». 0 95 . 7 4 3 .1 7 3 . 3 2 3 . 5 22 . 0 4 2 . 1 4 2 . 0 8 1 . 1 73 . 0 5 2 . 3 9 2 . 3 P 1 . 6 92 . 6 2 3 . 6 5 2 * 3 3 2 . 1 23 . 72 3 . ; , 6 2 . 9 t t 2 • 4 75 . 2 9 3 .» 5 2 . 61: 2 . 4 2

PCE

168

FORECAST fOF<SEC 1 0 F

68 commerce1 0 1 At

R EFE R E NC E FORECAST

7 6 - 7 8 7 8 - 7 9 ? 9 - « 0

l . » 6 2 . 4 7 2 . 1 ?

.00 ,IU' .CCi2. 42

• vJO

eo-8i

FORECAST F O R ;

SEC 10R

I?

25 ?6 ?7 28

? 9 31

3 ?333435 3 6 4>i 60 65 4? 6 *

A G ^ l C M 1IJRE SYI t f l c l H 1 h r e I R A v AJI OF. S M E 1 A I I X

M A r H I N F S a r r i c o i f s M O h l N t S O L T l l 5 E Q U I P M E N T I N O I S T R I E Lm a t e -------- ---------packm a t e r i f l m t p sP A Ch I N E 5 DE H I R E A l : MaURIfL ElEClRlOUF M A T E R I E L F. L t C l P O N l O U

m a t e r i f l f l e c i r o n i q u

W ff lrW R '.J fW ia c£ 1 B » 1 E R

I N D U S l R i r s M t f E R S F S RE CL'PE R A I I ON

COMMERCF

REFERENCE 1FORECAST1 9 16 1 9 / P 1 9 7 9 1 9 8 ( 1------- — — — ______ ______

se. 9 9 . l u 2 . 1 0 7. . 3 , J « 21 . 2 2 . j 31 1 4 ! . 1 1 6 1 . 1 2 j 2 . 1 2 4 4

_ , U 3 * - 1 1 9 ? . - 1 2 26 . - 1 2 P 12 5 f . . 2 5 2 . 2 6 2 . 2 1 1

2i * 1 5 . 2 0 6 3 . 3 1 / 2 . 3 2 8 5- H , S 4 . - 1 iJ 6 9 . - i n ; . > 1 1 4 1

- 6 2 2 . - 6 2 e . - 6 4 6 . - 6 6 151 . 5 2 . H . * 6

6 2 9 . 6 2 ? . 6 4 9 . 6 6 3- 3 . _ -» • - • - 4 ,i c # -7P». - 8 4 ^ '

- 1 e 9 . - 1 9 2 . - 1 9 8 . - 2T5 ,2 6 9 . 2 » 1 . 2 i 9 . 2 6 73. *- • - • 3-231. -229. -233. -239,

- 1 4 4 4 . - 1 4 * 1 . - 1 5 i 5 , - 1 5 8 C ,10 T AL 0 . 0 * n .

FORECAST f o r : R E F F R E N C E P 0 RE C AS 1SEC TOR

1 A G R I r U L 1 HR F? S V L V I C I J L T I I R F

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- . • 5 4 7 . ? < 1 - . 8 5 - . 1 51 . t t 1 . 3 6 . 9 3 1 . 4 1

- . ? 1 . 1 2 . 7 43 . 1 1 1 5 . 6 3 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 32 . t 2 ? . 3D - . 2 9 • 214 . 4 5 2 3 . 9 5 4 . 9 2 4 . 4 3

. ( C - 6 . < 16 - . 1 7 1 . 6 41 2 . ?3 - 1 2 . <12 1 . 50 2 . 76

<1.9 3 2 . 5 0 1 . 4 6 2 . 3 3. 0 0 2 3 . 64 2 . 6 9 3 . 0 3

2 . 1 5 - 1 . 1 2 1 .?(? 1 . P 75 . 1 6 1 . *-5 3 . 3 5 4 . U 5P . 31 - . 0 3 3 . 2 6 3 . 1 4e . e q • 24 1 . 8 9 2 . 0 16 . 1 1 - 1 . 4 9 1 . 0 7 1 .PO? . * ’ 1 2 . 3 3 1 . I P 2 . 3 ?

FORECAST FOR

SEC 1 OP

1

2% ?t 7 1 2P

2 9 31 17 11 34 i t 3P

1 9 4 * (■O 15 66 t 9ecp i83

Ar, R| CIJL H I R E $ YL t f l r l l L 1 URf 1 R A V A I I h e s m e i a u x m a c h i n e s A H R I C O L F S

M a c H I N f S o u i i l sF 0 IIJ PMFN 1 I N n i S l R l F L H a l t R I r L M I P S M c h i n f s 0 E r i :«»e a u

M a I E R I f I f l f c i R i o i *e M A I f R I E L f. l e c i r o n i o u M a l E R I r L f L F C l R O W f O l j V E H I C I I I F S Al l l OHO P JL f C ON S i m . ' C l I OM N A i C 0 N S 1 R . a e R ^ N a HI I N S I RIIM EM 1 S E l M A l E R

ME U p l ESI N n U S l R j E S H I « ERSE S B A ' I M E f I E 1 f , f N i f f i

t e ' r n j i i i . ,E,t f V i . .l O C A l l h N E l C R E n n - R CRe o H - R A i L I M M 0 B 1 L I

101 Al

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R E F E R EN C E FORECAST

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9 l . 7*9. 9 5 . 99,1 ■» tt A6 5 * : 6 8 > : 6 6 ? : 7 145 I 1 . 61 ? . 6 . * e . 6 3 1. A -

1 * • 6 . 61 6 1 . 1 5 2 . 16 9 . 1 75

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2 * 9 . 2 2 P . 2 4 2 . ? 5 15 9 6 . 1 n 4 5 . 6 2 8 . 6 5 1

1 2 . 1 5 . 14 . 153 9 6 5 . 4 5 1 1 . 41 f 1 . 4 3 3 5

9 1 . 6 1 . 9 6 . 1 ' Vl ,2 1 5 . 1 6 0 . 2 22 . 3 4 43 . 5 . 3 2 2 . 3 2 1 . 3 3 3 ,

9 P . 9 5 . I t 2 . I ' l l ,1 . 0 . 1 . 1,

6 8 4 5 . 6 6 1 4 . 1 2 1 1 , 1 4 F 31 4 5 . 1 5 4 . 1 5 3 . 1 5 91 3 1 . 1 4 5 . 1 2 1 . 1 4 ?

1 2 1 9 . 1 6 1 1 . 1 4 1 3 . 1 5 1 7? 2 4 . 2 4 5 . 2 4 6 . 2 5 5

1 6 . i t 6 . 1 7! I t . 1 6 6 ?3 . 1 7 4 S 5

RPOUTH R ATE S F O R : V . A . t . ON PCE

PI -6? e ? -p? P3-P4 64 -P 51 .95 2 .22 1 .96 .9 3?.4? 1.19 1 .1 2 1. J33 .62 2 .14 2 .66 2.6 I? .25 2 . I t . ? .C2 1.51?.oi ?. 15 2.16 1.163.91 4 .32 3 .5 7 2.454.66 3.1 1 3 .0 4 I .975.56 3 .5 0 2 .46 X .6 4?. 4 3 ? . 5 7 ?.3t! i .633.10 2 .46 2 .4 3 1.96?.es 3.66 2.34 2.1 42. 76 3.14 3.(13 2.55

. 8 ? 1 .L'P 1 .21 .602.35 l.PP 1 .6 7 1.42.36 -.6 6 -.5 4 - .71..6 1 .61 .76 .53-.?9 .3 7 I .29 4.764. 74 5.12 4 .08 4.141.9J .64 1 .0 2 1.364 .74 5 .r? 4 .08 4 . 1 4- 5 . 8 6 - 1 . 7 7 - 1 . 5 9 - 1 . 8 3

- . 3 9 . 9 5 2 . 1 3 5 . 7 4- . 1 6 . 9 7 1 . 9 9 c . 3 ??. 91 ?.e? ?.5e 2 . 2 11 . I P ? . 2 0 2 . C 2 1 . 5 81 . 9 ? ? . 4 e 2 . 5 7 2 . 2 42 . 3 4 2 . 3 4 2 .6 7 2 . 9 1

? : ! $1.6? 1 .21 1 .761 J e

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1 9 8 1

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_ 9 0 . i o n .4 . . 5 • 4 .

7 1 7 . 1 11 . 724 .6 3 3 . 62 7 . 6 39 .

6 . 6 . 6 .1 76 . 1 14 . 178 .

9 6 . 9 5 . 9 6 .

?59 ! : 2 4 9 . A t6 5 4 . 6 4 K . 6 6 1 .

15 . 1 5 . 1 5 .4 3 5 7 . 4 3 1 3 . 4 3 9 5 .

1 j ' J . 9 9 . 101 .3 4 5 . 3 4 2 . 3 4 9 .3 3 5 . 3 31 . 3 3P .K 7 , K i . 1 0 6 .1 • 1 O 1 .

75 15 . 74<l2 . 1 5 6 1 .1 5 9 . 1 4 2 . IS?: 16 1 .

1 44 .1 5 1 3 . 1 4 9 9 . 1 5 2 6 .

2 5 6 . 2 5 4 . ? 5 9 .

1 75 I f . 1 I 4 f 6 . 1 1 1 3 9 .

FORECAST FOR R F F F R E N C F FORF C

sec i o rA f i R l CUL 1 HRF s v i V I C l l L l U R E1 R A V A I L OES M F 1 A U X P A C H I N F S A f i R I C O L F S K A CMI N f S O l l l I L S F.Ot ’ I P f ' F N l I N f l l S I R I F L M a l F R I r L H I P S M C H I N I S nF. H I R E «U

3 2 M A l E R J f l r l E C l R T O U F 3 2 M A 1E P I FL F L E C l R O N l O U “ M A I f R I F L E l E C I RON 10 U

V E H l r l l l f S A U l O M O n / L E C ON 5 1 RI lC 1 1 ON N A v A| f C 0 N S 1 R . A F R ON A t n IQI JE J N S I R U H E N U E l M A l f R

i N m i s i P i r s n i t f F R S f S H A 1 J M EN 1 F I r . E N I F C l

p f p a R a i i o n a u t o .*E R V I CF AUK E N 1 R E P R I

L O C A l I ON f i c R m n - Bc r e d h - b a i l I M M O R l L l1 0 1 Al

1225?6

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- 2 9 . 2 9 9 5 . 4 4 3 . K 1 . 2 2- 2 . 5 3 1 1 . 0 9 3 . 6 9 1 . 3 4

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2 2 . 4 1 - 2 9 . 1 : 7 2 . 6 9 1 . 3 37 . 4 2 - 6 . 1 3 3 . 74 I . ? 96 . 6 6 - 1 . 2 2 2 . 6 P 1 . 2 4

- 1 8 . 1 3 5 8 . 1 1 3 . 6 8 1 . 34- 2 7 . 8 4 1 L ? . 1 9 2 . 6 P 1 . 3 4

2 . 75 - . 2 4 3 . 6 9 1 . 3 6- 1 . 5 4 P . 5(» 3 . t o 1 . 3 4

, u i - . O ' j .CO . O J- 1 . 78 9 . 28 3 . 6 9 1 . 3 4

3 . 0 6 - . 6 1 3 . 6 7 1 . 3 55 . 6 1 - 5 . 73 3 . 6 7 1 . 3 48 . 0 9 - 9 . 8 1 2 . 1 2 1 . 3 32 . ! 2 . 4 1 3 . 66 1 . 5 73 . 1 1 - . 8 4 3 . 6 9 1 . 3 4

SI

f o r e c a s i f o r :

SEC 10R

12i456 7 P 91 2 1 2 1 4 1 5 16

i 7 1 P1 92 "> 21 2 ? 2224

2 526 2 7 2 P 2 9

3 ' t 21 22 32 34

A O R I r l l l 1I»RE S Y l WITUL1 HRFPE CHEH O I l I t I F t l I f i N I l F . A n n CCKEF » C 1 I 0 N P F 1 R 0 I F PRI I1 G » 7 N A l OREL PE 1R 01 F R A F F I N E

E I E p i P I c l I E I I I S I R [ B U f I N F R A I HE FER S f O E R i i G I r PRO!) . RE L * ACI ER

M N L R a T S NON f f R R e u x r e 1 ALX NON F F R R E U X f I .NF r aIJ X m vER S

M a l E R . OF C O N l R U f l l O VE RHfC H I M I E M I N E 1* A| E C H I M I E O R G a N l O H E

W o W f r j S ! PH arm A C E l I l I F C N D E R I ES i R a w a i i n r s m f i a h x M A C H I N E S AGRI C O I F S

M a c h i n e s o m u l sF Q l l l P M f f l l I N Dl l S I R I r L r A 1 £ RI EL M I P 5

M a I E R I E L n ’ ARM FK f N 1 f A C H T N F S HE M I R E A l !

H a I E R I Fl. EL E C l R l Q I I F El f c I R O N I O U r L E d RON | QU

MA l r Rj EL MaIER/fL

RE FE R E N CF F 0 R E C A S 1

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1 P 5 4 4 . 1 9 3 2 P . 2 1 5 2 1 . 2 11 225 K t , 5 5 9 . 5 F 4 . 5 P 44 9 5 . 5 5 7 . 5 9 5 . 6 ) 9 ,1 6 4 . 1 4 9 . 1 5 0 . 1 4 43 9 2 . 2 1 1 . 3 3 6 . 249 ,

1 . 1 2 . 1 2 . 125 0 . 5 4 . 5 7 . 59,

P ' 1 2 5 . 91 7 0 . 9 6 5 7. 98 >1,3 4 6 . ? 5 1 . 2 24 . 2 C64 4 P . 2 i n . 2 9 7 . 2 7 3

1 L 7 5 2 . 1 4 2 l f> . 1 5 4 5 5 . 1 6 1 6 24 7 2 P . 5 4 2 P. 5 7 7 8 . 5 8 9 5

66 . 1 » 6 . I f 2 . 1 f 29 1 8 9 . 9 6 4 5 . 1 1 2 2 5 . 10 3 8 6

5 2 9 . 5 7 4 . 5 8 ? . 5 77 ,2 m i l . 2 8 9 7 . 2 2 5 9 . 2 5 0 92 5 4 7 . 3 -j 4 4 . 22 i r . 33 9 92 1 9 6 . 4 1 5 0 . 4 2 2 9 . 4 2 5 9

16 2 34 . 2 U 6 1 6 . 2 2 7 1 3 . 2 4 2 5 35 5 £ 8 . 6 9 4 2 , 7 5 “ 3 . e o i 9,2*166 . 2 P *. 1 , 20 * 2 . 3 1 5 4 ,1 2 2 6 . 1 4 1 6 , 1 5 5 4 . 16 3 5,7 7 ) 7 . P?1 4 a f 7 5 7 . 9 i * 2 ,1 9 5 9 . 1 r t l 6 . 1 9 2 2 . 2 j 9U,2SH1 . 4 1 5 9 , 46 1 1 . 4 ^ 8 0 ,

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2 7 9 5 . 5 5 2 7 . 6 5 2 9 . 14 2 9 ,41 9 P . 4 l * f I . 5 6 4 4 . 6 J l i >7 9 : 1 . 8 P P4 . 1 < L i 2 . 1 1 2 2 98 2 5 9 . 1 > 2 8 4 . 11 ' 5 3 . 1 16 J4,

P b 7 . 1 -‘ 1 5 . 1 j S 4 . 1 1 2 1

G P O u l H RATF S F C R : V . A . T . GN I N V E S T M E N T S

8 1 - 8 2 8 2 - 83 8 3 - 8 4 8 4 - e 5

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. n o a l 0 . .n c .CO- 1 . 2 4 . 3 5 - . 9 3 1 . 9 0- I . 2 4 . 2 6 - . 9 4 1 . 8 9- 1 . 2 3 . 3 7 - . 9 4 1 .9(1- 1 . 2 4 . 3 2 - . 9 3 1 . 9 3- 1 . 1 6 . n o - . 7 8 1 . 9 7- 1 . 2 4 . 3 4 - . 9 2 1 . 9 0

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1 2 . 6 2 *

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1 1 1 35 . t i i i . J P4 .

10 70 5 .•5 7 5 .

2 P3 3 . 3 tCn , 4 3 6 3 .

2 6 4 It . (!tt 9 . 3 3 4 2 .UJ?5*V524 , 2 2 9 7 .

5 ? I l f ! , 2 2 ePv . 1 2 ^ 5 * . 861 7 . 6 6 6 5 .

1 2<>22 . 1 2 3 7 1 . 1 1 P P .

s e r i f :

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2 2 2 1 4 .t o r .6 5 4 . 1 2 6 . 3 P 4 . 12 .

6 5 . 114 1 4 .

1 5 9 . 24 f •

JP4 73 . 6 4 5 e .I * ? .

1 f> 9 9 9 .571 .

4 J t t , 2 7 9 7 . 4 2 9 4 .

2 9 71*4 . 9 5 4 ’ . 35 6 ■? . i e « o .9 9 1 2 . 2621 . 5P 52 .

25? E l .1 41 HI . i r - f 5 2 .

721 7 . 14P 71 .I 321 9.

1 P 55 .

EXPORTS

19® 3 19 6 4

2 3 9 1 9 . 59P . 66 4 . 121 . 396 . 12.

6 7 . 10 66 7 .

13 4 . 22 3 •

1 9 5 4 5 . 6 742 .

l e t . 1 1 1 26 .

55 8 . 4 4 5 6 . 3 9 3P . 4 2 5 5 •

3 2 9 9 1 . I*» 3 36 . 3 754 .

2e e s . 621 6 .

2761 2 . 16251 . 1 1 5 9 1 .

79 33 . i t 7 " i . 1 3PP7 . 12L6 .

24 <82 . 5P2 . 6 6 1 . 122.40 0 . 11 .68.

1 0 6 2 5 . H . 9 . 2«2 .

2 ' . 2 * 5 .

1 1 .‘0 1 •5 2 3 .

4 11 Z , 2 9 P 7 .421 e .

2 5 6 9 2 . 1 L '>2 5 .

2 P 5 4 . 1 9 7 2 .

1 J 1 1 7 . 20 8 2 . 6 6 56 a

2 9 2 2 2 . I e3 l '» a 1 2 1 2 2 .

82 84 . l f * 2 2 .

1 98 5

2 4 0 8 2 , 5 6 5 . 6 5 2 , 114 .4 0 1 , 1 1 .

6 9 ,105 2 3 .

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I 76 . 108 24 .

5 06 . 4 8 4 ? . 4 0 0 ? . 4 05 7 •

3 P 3 2 P .

V?!?: 2002. 10013 . 3 21 2 . 6 95 9 .

3 06 12. 2 Oq q 9 , 14 8 1 0 .JStfH •19966 .

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F0RFCAS1 FOR:

352637383940 >11 4? 47 *1 *1 ** s46 4 7 4f»

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C O I R S E l PFAI IX A R T I C L E S EN C U l R CM A l jSS I IRFSh a r m i e * f n i PROD o i l ROI s

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FORECAST FOR

SEC 10 R

1234 *5 6 7 P 9

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I I nN I 1 F » AGPM ^ M p U p ,

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1 9 7 9

2 J 8 9 . 4 3C < 3 .

6 4 ) . 2 3 6 5 .

1 3 4 2 5 . 5 2 3 6 . 4 8 3 0 . £ 6 2 4 . 1 1 0 5 .

2 * . 4 4 2 1 . 1 33 7 . 4 l b ? . ? 4 .11. E e 4 3 .

3 ? I . 1 6 6 S . 4 4 ■ J 0 • 2 5 1 * . 66?6.

1 1 2 . 4 6 0 .

1 4 7 4 . £066. 2 1 3 5 .

< • 1 4 .0 9 21 .2 7 7 e . * 5 c 6 . 3 9 2 2 . 4 1 3 1 . 4 3 1 0 .1 2 9 0 . < 1 ( 4 .

1 2 6 . 1 4 - H 5 .

s e e l .£ 411. 3 9 3 . 21666 .

5 4 . 1 6 4 1 . 120.

e 9 8 .

1 9 7 6 1 9 / 8

2 3 i ’ 5 . 2 5 7 4 .3 4 9 1 7 . 4<J' 2 7 .

1 9 6 7 . K PR .29M 9 . 2 * 35 .8 7 9 9 . 1 1 8 9 2.3 7 e 2 „ 4 4 1 3 .4 6 9 2 . 4 5 0 1 .

4 6 5 7 . 5 2 5 0 .1 2 2 9 . 1 2 2 1 .

1 6 . 2 » .2 2 9 9 . 4 1 9 3 .1 1 0 6 . 1 ?6 9 .

2 7 5 . 4 5 3 7 .1 5 2 3 . 2 2 7 5 .

4 1 1 1 . 5 5 5 5 .1 w 4 . 7 . J6 .

1 4 9 2 . 1 5 i <i .4 2 6 2 . 4 1 2 9 .2 2 9 8 . 2 2 4 3 .• 5 3 8 3 . 6 2 2 6 .

8 5 6 . 7 43 .3 7 0 . 42 2 .

1 4 6 2 . 1 3 6 6 .4 ? c 6 . 4 5 4 7 .1 8 3 2 . 2 H I 8 .

7 18 . 8 7 7 .2 5 6 0 . 4 5 1 3 .2 4 J 0 . 2 6ei.

4 5 c ? . 5 1 2 6 .3 U 4 . 2 6 6 5 .

3 5 3 9 . 4 4 9 1 .3 7 2 8 . 4 ' J u l .1 1 4 1 . 1 2 ? 5 .

5 9 i . t : . 6 4 i ' 2 .1 u 7 . 1 1 7.

1 1 76 2 . n ? 6 e .48 7 0 . 5 5 2 1 .

4 5 1 4 . 5 2 2 0 .3 4 9 . 3 8 6 .

1 3 6 2 6 . 2 G 7 2 6 .4 3 . 4 7 .

1 5 3 7 . 1 5 4 5 .6 6 6 . 6 71 .7 1 6 . " 2 2 .

2 1 9 4 5 4 . 3 6 9 ? 9 1 .

R EF F R E N CE 1

7 6 - 78 7 8 - 79

2 , 0 9 6 . 1 75 . 3 c 4 . 4 46 . HP 6 , 85

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14 55 J .5 9 3 3 . 4 9 6 4 .

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45 . 4 5 R I .1 2 7 3 .

4 8 1 3 . 2 4 4 5 .5 9 3 4 .

3 2 3 .1 8 C 7 . 4 5 2 6 . 2 6 4 e . 6 7 5 e .IS*.

4 6 8 . 1 5 7 7 . 5 3 9 0 , 2 1 6 5 . 1 0 3 7 . 5 1 1 3 .2 7 9 4 .

5 7 3 ? . 4 u 6 e * 4 8 i a . 4 4 6 1 . 121 7 ,

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1 4 2 5 9 . 5 9 7 4 . 54 0 8 .

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s e r i f : EXPORTS

1 9 81 1 =>82 1 9 e 3 1 9 84 1 9 8 5

4 8 9 4 . 6 ^ 93 • 741 8 . 8 7 8 3 . 1 0 ? 9 ? .4 8 1 6 * . 511 7*? . 5 3 1 3 6 . 5 4 s . e e . 5 4 4 5 9 .

4 5 2 . ?f .< . 1 94 . 1 1 4 . 6 2 .4 ^ 2 2 o 4 5 3 6 . 51 I P . 5 4 C 2 , 5 76 7 .

1 6 P ? 9 . 1 7 6 3 3 . 1 9 1 2 6 . ?*'• 21 7 . 2 14 8 2 .6 8 H 6 . 7 7 8 9 . 8 7 5 9 . 9 6 1 7 . 1 0 4 7 9 .51 7 5 . 5 2 5 V . 5 2 5 6 . 5 1 3 3 . 4 9 8 0 .

6 1 9 5 . 65 78 . 6 8 6 6 . 7 fj 1 3 • 7 0 9 2 .1 4 3 6 . 1 * 3 4 . 1 6 1 2 . 1 6 5 6 . 16 87 .

5 6 . 6 9 . 8 3 . 9 7 . 1 1 2 .4 8 2 8 . 50 7 7 . 5 2 6 5 . 5 3 2 e . 5 2 4 5 .1 4 2 2 . 1 4 6 ? . 1 4 8 1 . 1 4 6 5 . 14 37 .

4 9 6 6 . 51 3( ' . 5 ? 18 . 5 1 9 2 . 5 1 1 7 .2 5 3 9 . ? 6 5 1 . 2 7 2 6 . 2 7 4 2 . 27 4 3 .

6 1 5 1 . 6 7 3 2 . 6 4 1 2 . 6 3 5 n . 3 2 9 .

6 ? 4 P .3 3 i ) . 3 3 5 . 3 3 6 . 3 2 0 .

2 0 0 ? • 2 ? 21) . 24 13 . 2 5 6 0 . 2 6 8 6 .4 7 4 9 . 4 9 9 2 . 5 1 6 ? . 5 2 2 2 . 5 ? 4 2 .2 8 9 8 . 7 1 1 * . 3 2 e c . 2 2 8 7 . 3 4 4 1 .6 9 9 ? .

8 4 2 . ’W : ' f c i : m -7 0 0 9 .

F 2 8 .4 e 4 . 4 9 7 . 5 2 . 4 9 7 . 4 8 8 .

161 3 . 1 6 9 4 . 1 751 . 1 7 6 9 . 17 75 .5 7 9 6 . 61 91 . 6 4 8 9 . 6 6 31 . 6 7 1 4 .2 ? ? 8 . 1 1 2 1 .

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2 3 0 9 .1 2 9 7 . U M : 2?4 1 .

1 6 ?6 .5 4 2 6 • 5 7 8 6 . 6 U 4 8 . 6 1 8 u , c ? t 1 .2 9 1 2 . ? 9 5 5 . 2 9 3 4 . 2 8 5 2 , ?7 4 7 .

6 ^ 8 5 . 6 4 1 3 , 6 6 3 6 . 6 7 L 7 , 6 7 ? ! .4 2 8 6 . 4 4 6 9 . 4 5 7 6 . 4 5 7 2 . 4 5 3 0 .5 0 1 8 . 51 e ? . 5 26 11. 5 2 1 8 . 5 1 3 5 .4 6 9 9 . 4 9 1 4 . 5 0 5 8 . 5 > e 5 . 5 0 7 4 .1 3 8 1 . 1 42 7 . 1 4 4 6 . 1 4 2 6 . 1 3 8 9 .7 1 1 4 . 73 55 . 7 4 9 1 . 7 4 1 5 . 7 ?5 7 •

1 4 ; ) . 1 51 . 1 5 9 . 1 6 4 . 166 .1 4 8 7 9 . 1 5 5 86 . 1 6 0 6 3 . 1 6 1 5 4 . 1 6 0 9 9 .

6 2 0 4 . 5 4 6 8 .

6 4 6 4 . 5 5 1 2 .

6 6 2 3 . 54 7 1 . i m : 6 5 7 3 .

5 1 2 7 .

n i ! I : 2 4 f ^ !3 5 6 .

2 4 5 8 1 . 2 4 ^ 6 IJ 14 .

? 3 l 4 8 .6 5 . 71 . 7 7 . 8 2 , 8 6 .

1 7 ? 0 a 1 6 e 7 . 1 6 2 5 . 1 5 2 5 , 14 1 8 .7 7 2 . 7 71 . 7 5 3 . 7 1 9 . 6 7 9 .9 9 ® . i r > * 7 . 1 1 0 ? . 1 1 ? 3 , 11 3 8 .

4 5 2 2 3 1 . 4 8 6 7 1 9 . 5 1 5 6 8 0 . 5 3 4 4 6 2 . 5 5 0 4 1 6 .

GROWTH R A T r S F O R ! FXPORTS

8 1 - 8 ? 8 ? - 8 3 8 3 - 8 4 84 - 8 5

4 . 7 4 7 . 1 ' 4 . 6 9 - • r l1 , ? ? - . 2 5 - ? .5 4 - 3 . 1 2

J :1? J-J? -14 . 8 2 7 . 2 1 . 9 3 . 3 2- . 2 9 -1 .8 7 - 3 . 9 9 - 4 . 5 75 . 4 2 7 . 5 6 1 . 4 3 . 8 23 . 4 ^ 1 . 8 4 - . 4 .1 - . 9 6

- 1 ? . 8 P -1 5 .4 4 - I P . 5 9 - ? . . 4 6- 5 . 4 9 - 7 . 1 5 - 9 . 3 9 - I D . 1 2

F0RECA$1 FOR REFFRENCF F0RECAS1SFC 10R

1 2 1 4 I K 1 6 1 71 P 19

212 2 2? 24 ? 5 262 7 ?P 2 9irf l2? » 124 35 I f 37 2 P 2 9 4*' 41 4? <•3<14 4 5 46 <1 7 4P 4 9 * <i SI f- ?5354555657 SP 5 9 6'» 61 6? 62 6«l6 5 67 7? 72 7*57 6 77 7 P 79 6'' t i l /* *»

P 7

s m E R i i G i rPROO. f lF L ' A C I E R M I N E P a I S NON F F RR E I I X K f l A l I X NON FEHREI IX M M F P A I J X D I V E R ?

r a i e r . n r c o n i r u c i i o vEf i f i F

C M I M I E H I NF R a I F

w a !s.-o.sr " " " ,,EFf iOn l . ' I I S P h A R M A C E L I I

F O N O E R i p sT R f t t f A i i n r s m e i m i yPACh I N F S AGRt COL E S

m a t h i n f s o i m i l sE G U l P M F N 1 I N O L S I R I F Lw a i e p i f i m i p sM A T E R I F L n ' A R M F H F N I

P A C H I M f S f)F Rt lR EAt lM A l F R I E L e l e c i r i o i i f

H a 1 f R I f L r l EC1RON fQIJ K A l E K I F L f l e c i r o n i o u e o u i p f m e n i h f n a g e r VFM I f* t lL f S * U 1 0 H 0 r | L e M A 1 E P I E L f f r r o v i a i r e CONSTRUCT I O N N AV Al F C 0 N S 1 R . AFRONAU1 fOL'E I N ? 1 R I I K f N 1S F l M A l F R VI a .n p e S

l a n f t p R O n u n s l a iCONS F RV FSP A I N F 1 PA 1 1 S S E R I F

P R O O H I 1 S OU G R A I N CORPS GR A S A L I H F N 1 A I S l l c R lA I I 1 RF S P R O D . A L I H E N 1 P O I S SON S F l ALCOOL ? l A H A C S E l PR OO.F I L S £ 1 F I B R E ? A R U f F f L S F l F I I FS PCNNF 1 F R I F

0 U Vft AG F FN F l l FS C H I P S F l P F A II > a R U c I - F ^ FN f l l fR CH AUSSURFS H A R I L L F ^ F N 1 PROD n i l POI S PF IjPLF ?P A P I E R . C A« T ON PRF 5SF . I M P R I M E P I F . E D PNFIJM A l l O I I r S P P OD . P L A S l l O l F S I N D l J S l R I r S n l ^ E W S p Sr e c u p e r a t i o nI P ANSP FFRRO VI A 9 F S

1 R a NSP R O I I l I f R S PE M N A V I G A T I O N I N I F R I F I I RT R a N S P O R I S fl A R f 1 I f* F S 1RANSPOR1 S At . RTFNS

S E R V I C E S A U X I L T A l P F S IF I E COMM I N I C A 1 ION '

S E P V I C F aOX F N 1 R F P R I L O T A I I O N E l C R F D I l - B E N ' E I G N E MEN T ( MARCHA A SSI IR A N C F S

7 6 - I B 7P-- 7 9 1 9 - 6 0 6 (• - 61—--------- ------- — - _______ _______1 5 . 3 7 P OC . 4 . 5 7 6 . ( ' 2

7 . 25 6 25 2 . 0 3 3 . 766 3 . 3 N 6 9 - . 4 4 1 . 4 5

2 . 4 5 6 01 1 . 5 6 3 , f 74 . 17 ? 43 - 1 . 96 - . 4 19 . 6 4 12 4 6 1 .?(J 9 . 2 19 . 3 2 7 44 3 . 9 3 5 . 9 2

1 2 . 5 7 4 4 2 . 7 1 2 . 4 51 * . 35 i n 17 6 . 7ft 9 . 1 71 2 . i 6 9 1 9 5 . 7 9 e , i o

6 . 56 7 9 3 4 . 34 5 . 9 6i f . 9 5 9 7 7 5 . I P 6 . 7 43 . 1 7 6 61 2 . 2 6 5 . 2 0

- 3 . 72 5 8 6 R. 72 9 . 8 87 . 7 7 1? ? f 4 . 4 9 8 . 3 54 . 4 5 11 57 6 . r j f i 8 , 77

- 9 . 6 9 15 6 2 1 5 . 6 5 16 . 9 42 u . 6 6 18 13 1 3 . 76 1 6 . 0 0

7 . 7 6 15 7 2 6 . 5 0 1 1. . 8 96 . U 4 1 2 59 1 3 . 36 1 4 . 64

I t . 9 ^ 9 4 3 3 . 1 1 6 . 6 1e . e 3 7 6 2 3 . 3 6 4 . 9 75 . 6 7 20 i lU 2 5 . 71 2 6 . 0 47 . 0 6 7 4 9 4 . C 5 7 . 5 6

- 2 5 . 6 3 - 2 2 12 - 2 5 . 21 - 2 8 . 641 . 4 5 11 5 2 7 . 9 2 1 U a H '

1 6 . 25 12 6 9 e . 3e 1 J . 1 76 . 0 1 16 6 4 1 3 . 3 3 1 4 . 7 1

- 2 . Gfc 7 30 2 . 78 4 . 266 . i e 7 31 3 . 6 6 6 , f i 9- . 3 3 6 6 7 3 . 6 2 6 . 1 1

2 9 . 9 0 32 10 2 5 . 0 4 2 5 . 4 11 2 . 7 4 5 6 9 3 . 3 9 5 . 3 9

7 . 1 2 5 39 2 . 6 3 3 . 5 82 9 . 5 1 4 74 1 . 2 6 3 . 1 72 1 . 8 2 5 54 1 . 03 3 . 6 61 6 . 2 4 5 16 1 . 5 7 3 . 6 5

. 3 3 4 9 < . 5 6 2 . 0 4

. 2 7 1 1 26 6 . 2 9 1 0 . 83- 1 . 5 7 6 5 5 2 . 6 7 4 . 9 4

. 9 7 7 66 4 . 75 9 . 4 47 . 5 5 k 4 3 1 . 9 9 3 . 4 7

- 6 . 8 3 i 91 2 . 4f t 5 . 4 46 . ^ 5 t 3 7 1 . 9 1 3 . 4 P

- 3 . 34 7 67 3 . 6 1 5 . 6 83 . 9 7 1 1 45 6 . 27 7 . 5 34 . 9 2 5 6 ? 1 .4C. 2 . 9 n

i ; > . 52 11 12 6 . 44 e . 0 51 3 . 3 4 7 6 ? 3 . S t 6 . 3 1

5 . 6 9 i 63 . 5 7 4 . ? 26 . P I 1 ? 1 4 , U 9 6 . 1 78 . 6 6 7 " 1 3 . 71 5 . 37

1 2 . 6 5 5 3 4 1 . 6 6 4 . 3 13 . 6 u 7 73 3 . 5,1 5 . 3 33 . 6 2 5 32 2 . U * 1 . 674 . 1 7 4 71 1 . 2 9 4 . 7 74 . 5 7 7 25 3 . 9 | 7 . 2 26 . ? 1 5 56 1 . 6 1 * . 3 56 . 4 7 6 52 1 . 5 8 3 . 6 57 . 5 4 ■» 9 6 - . 3 * 1 . 1 15 . 1 7 1 74 - 2 . 4< - 1 . 2 2

2 ? . 1 4 6 5 9 2 . 2 1 5 . 2 94 . 5 5 1 4 20 9 . 2< l u . 6 4

. 26 t 19 1 . 6 7 2 . 1 ). 3 7 7 2 P 2 . PC 4 . 2 4

GROWTH R A T F S F O R : F XPORT S

7 . 5 P 5 . 5 7 I . 2 4 2 . 7 5

12 8.70 5 . 4 7

. 12 I ? . 4 9 J l l .LIP

6. eo 6 .0(1 4 . 0 6

M U !10.93 1 7 . 6 6U: Si1 4. 20 6 . 6 5

5 . 6 5 2 *1 . 51

6 . 2 6 - 3 2 . 4 3 1 2 . 7 9 i n . u i 14 . 4 4

1 . 6 1 6 . 1 7 6 . 6 7

2 3 . 6 5 5 . 1 5 2 . 64 3 . 3 1 4 .' 9 2.$4 1 . 7 3

I p . 85 5 . I f7 . 3 5

2 . 5 3 ? . 4 4 ? .665 . 0 1 6.6? ? . 6 0

1 2 . 5 5 6 . 4 5 1 . 4 85 . 3 9 4 . 2 63 . 2 7 4 . 5 83 . 3 63 . 3 9

} : U*:f.9

93 . 3 6

i n . ' ' 9 - I . 6 7

- . 3 1

e i-p? P2 - 6 3 6 3 - 6 4 6 4 - 6 5

6 .» 4 3 . 5 8 3 . f ! 44 . 4 0 2 . 5 6 2 . 4 0- . 2 ? - 2 . 4 7 - 3 71 . 1 6 - 1 . t ? - 1 . 6 6

- ? . 26 - 4 . 4 1 -4.9e6 .9 7 4 . 5 7 3 . 9 13 . 7 2 1 .24 . 3 6- .9f' - 3 . 1 4 - 3 . 6 1

1«‘». 7 7 6 . 1 9 7 . 3 66 .22 5 . 7 ‘J 4 . 6 5*5.1 74 . 3 6

2 . 6 ?2 . 1 3 1 : 1 ?

2 .2? - . 2 5 - 1 . i . 31 1 ' . 0 6 6 . 6 4 6 . 1 4

7 . 7 4 5 . 5 5 4 . r 56 . 75 5 .9 j 4.79

l c .2f 12 . 3 5 11 . 3 21 3 . 2 1

5 . 6 81 2 . 6 7

4 . 6 *1 2 . 3 0 8 . 9 7

5 . 1 5 1 .P 9 . 6 44 . ( 6 1 . 6 5 1 . 3 1

21 . 7 ’ I 6 . 4 j 1 7 . 1 93 . 6 1 1 . 7 9 .6 9

3 6 . 5 9 - 4 1 . 1 J - 4 5 . 9 3!> ' .6 2 7 . 6 5 6 . 7 7

6 . 4 7 6 . 2 3 5 . 7 31 ? . 4 5 9 . 7 9 P . 9 7

- . U 6 - 2 . 3 3 - 2 . 9 9* . 7 6 1 . 9 9 1 . 2 65 . 1 7 2 . 7 1 1 . 6 7

2 0 . 4 7 16 . 6 4 14 . 6 5? . 7 1 1 . 2 0 . 3 21 . 2 7 - 1 . 0 8 - 1 . 8 61 . 7 2 - . 5 0 - 1 al l 7? • 62 . f c j . J 41 . 2 7 - . 9 8 - 1 . 6 1

.1 5 - 2 . C 5 - 2 . 6 46 . 7? 3 . 4 i ! : «

4 . 9 1. 3 9

5 . 4 6 3 . 2 5 1 . 6 0. 9 2 - 1 . 2 9 - 1 . 6 6. 4 6 - 1 . 6 4 - 2 . 7 7

1 . J 6 - 1 . 1 9 - 1 . 6 C2.25 1 . )4 .364. PI 2.10 1 .261 .1 2 - 1 . 1 9 - 1 .77

I P . 73 8 .25 7.55*> .1 2 2.16 1 .31- • U -2.82 -3.682 . « 7 1 .re .202.41 - . 1 i -.931 . 5 r -.79 -1 .592 . 9 3 .55 -.231 .32 -1 .39 -2.5 91 .f5 -1 .02 -2.13? : «

2 . 7 9.56 1 .58- . 3 4

? . 4 7 ->5 -.81- . 7 4 -2 . 9 2 -2 . 4 6

-3.# 9 - 5 . 6 3 - 6 . 4 31 . 9 " - f .32 - 2 . 5 1P . 21 5 . 6 7 4 . 91

- 3 . 71 - 6 . 1 4 - 7 . 0 3- ? . 1 ? - 4 . 6 4] - 5 . 4 7

r O R E C A S l f o r : r e f e r e n c e f o r e c a s t

SECTOR 1 6 - 1 8 7 8 - 79 - 7 9 - 8 J 8 i ) - P l

PP F I N A N C E 7 . 1 5 9 . 2 4 q . 6 ? 6 . 2 1

1 0 1 A | 7 . 5 2 P . 5 9 * . 9 6 1.0*1

FORECAST FORI

SEC TOR

A Gf i

9 I f 1 1 1 4 1 6 1 7 1 »1 92 * 2 ? 2 ?252 6 21 3 2 34 t c3 6

4f -414 ?434 44 54 6 4 7 4 P 4 9

5 f ‘ 5 ?

5 35 45 6

5 75 85 9 6 ^ 61

6 2 6?6 46 566 6 7 6 <»7'171

a R R I r u t i u r f<V| VI CUL I U R F

PE r HE

to w n / y i c ,rPE TKOl £ R A F F i N E

E l E c T P I Cl T f n l STR i r u GA 7 n i S T R I P U L E AU E T C HA U F F A RE HRB P R OD . n E L ' A C l E R n 1 At ; y NON F ER R E UX

k p j e r a u x R I V E R S

tfE*R^’ °F C0N1RtC1I° CM I « IE M I N E R A I F p a r a c H i m i fP R O O M I T S PH ARM A CEMT I T R A v A H n E S HFTAI JX

m a c h i n e s a r R I c o i f sm a c h i n e s nE R I R E A U

K a TER I FL 11 E C l R I 0 I »F ELtniRONlQU E (I H l P t M f N 1 HFN A f i FR

v r H I C U L E S A U I O W O R I L E I M S 1 R U H F NTS ET H AT f R t f l ANpE SL AT 1 E T P R O n t I T ? L A I

c o n se R v f SP A I N F l P A Tr S 5ER I F

P R O n u I I S pU f i RA . N C O RP S G R A S Al i m E N T A I SUCRE

AM1RE S P R OD . Al I * ENT POI S SON S ET Al COOL S

T A R A r S f T P R O o -

OUt fRAG F FN F I L ES A M I Cl F S EN CL IR

CM a MS S HR f S H A B I L L F M FN T PRon n»» p«i s ¥f ; UHI F S P f c P I E R t CA R ION

PRESSE • I MPR IM f R I F * F D FNF UMA 1 I OUES

P R O P . P l a S T I O I I e S I t»h IJSTRT ES 01 vFR SFS

PAT I r F N T eT r e N I F C I

r l f p ^ f . V r jn o ..fS iW VJSTEM tf^S ,5

R EF E R E N C E F ORECAS1

1 9 7 6 19 7e 1 9 7 9 19 0C

4 7 74 7 . 4 7 0 8 9 . 4 1 1 4 * 0 4 1 7 1 3 .1 6 U . 14 7 . 13 8 . 1 2 6 .

7 2 0 9 . 1P11 . l e s i . 7 9 3 6 .1 8 4 5 . 1 9 5 3 . 2 J 4 5 . 181 2 .

1 * 8 . 1 1 7 . 1 I t . 1 0 4 .3 0 5 2 1 . 4 fl 9 4 5 . 41 1 2 1 . 4 I E 8 6 .1 1 6 6 1 . 1 4 4 8 5 . 1 4 9 t 3 . 1 4 9 1 1 ,

5 5 c ? . t t t u . < < 1 3 . 6 6 5 2 .6 7 0 7 . 7 6 1 5 . 7 7 1 3 . 7 6 7 6 .

2 3 1 . 2 3 4 . 2 4 4 . 2 4 8 ,1 1 4 . 1 3 1 . 1 4 0 . 1 4 ? .1 65 . 1 * 9 . 1 1 1 . 1 7 2 .

3 2 4 9 . 3 7 3 1 . 3 8:) 6 , 3 9 1 1 .2 1 6 5 . 2 2 1 3 . 5 3 4 P . 2 3 9 6 .

5 4 . 6 % 6 2 . 6 4 .1 5 4 w 3 . 1 61 4 9 . 1 6 5 4 S . 1 72 C 9 .? L i ' j 7 . 21 7 42 . 2 2 1 4 3 . 2 3 741 .

6 2 6 2 . 6U6 9 . 6 2 0 9 . 6 3 9 4 .HU . 9 8 . H - 2 .6 5 . 7 1 . 7 7 . 7 9 .

2 1 2 6 . 2 2 1 9 . H i t m 2 4 C 9 ,9 1 4 2 . 1 1 1 4 4 . 1 2 2 4 3 . 1 2 5 9 5 .

1 2 4 1 1 . 1 2 5 c 7 . 1 3 ? 2 1 . 1 J 5 C 3 .2 9 u 2 3 . 2 9 1 5 1 . 3 0 0 8 7 . 3 1 5 4 1 .6 2 9 5 . 6 9 L (i . 1 2 2 4 . 74 4 9 .

6 6 ^ 3 2 . 7 J 5 78 . 1 2 0 1 7 . 7 2 8 3 2 .3 1 4 2 5 . 3 2 5 J 2 . 2 3 1 U P . 33 7 P 2 .9 / 5 2 . 9 « U 2 . I C ? 14 . 1 G 5 C9 .

1 6 6 3 9 . 1 7 1 4 1 . 1 7 3 9 3 . 1 74 7 3 .t i t 9 . 1 2 1 9 . 13 s e . 7 5 6 0 .

4 2 5 7 . 4 20 1 . 4 2 4 9 .24 9 5 . 2 3 3 4 . 2 3 5 7 . 2 3 7 0 .

1 5 6 2 2 . 1 5 3 7 8 . 1 5 5 S 4 . 1 5 e 5 5 .1 6 J 5 4 . 1 6 1 C * . 1 6 4 9 9 . 1 6 9 4 1 .

UlCJVI . 1 0 5 74 . 1 1. 11 i . 1 G 8 8 2 .14 7 8 . 1 3 7 2 . 1 3 9 3 .

1 3 J C 4 . J 4 * : 2 6 . 1 4 4 2 7 .1C 1 5 7 . M 3 5 0 . I t 1 45 . 1 0 8 7 1 .

4 5 3 6 . 46 2 P . 4 P 2 9 . 4 9 4 8 .n e ? 3 . 1 i p s e . i : n 4 . 1 2 3 3 6 .3 7 9 7 1 . 3 P 3 9 6 . 3 8 1 6 6 . 3 8 8 7 U .

6 9 3 . 6 P 2 . t i t . 70 9 .5 7 2 2 9 . 2 7 9 1 7 . 2 9 4 5 9 . 3 1 3 4 4 .

2 9 1 5 . 3 23 7 . 3 4 6 8 . 3 5 6 2 .1 5 1 2 3 . 1 6 1 3 6 . 1 I 3 4 < * . 1 6 t f 1 .

4 1 1 1 . 4 3 3 4 . 4 4 5 6 . 4 5 1 8 .? 35 9 . 3 5 6 1 . 3 6 2 2 . 3 774 .

2 2 5 7 4 . ? 4 6 4 n . 2 5 5 6 1 . 2 6 3 2 4 .94 78 . 9 P 5 4 . S 9 F 4 . 1( 2 3 5 .1 2 f 3 .

1 9 2 33 . 98 P. 2 o l 2 P . fJ r t? :

3 5 3 3 . 5 R 9 J ? . 3 5P 5 .

6 1 2 9 4 .

GROWTH R A T F S FO RI FXPCRTS

8 1 - 8 2 B2-P3 8 3 - 8 4 e 4 - 8 5

5 . e e 4 . 2 4 1 . 9 4 1 . 3 3

7 . 6 3 5 . 9 5 3 . 6 4 2 . 9 9

s e r i f : PCE

1 9P1 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 4 1 9 e b

4 e 2 5 4 , 4 8 3 2 2 . 4 8 5 7 5 . 4 1 7 32 . 4 8 t e i .1 1 4 . 1 P 3 . 91 . 7 9 . 6 ? .

e i ' 6 9 . 81 1 7 . e ? ( J l . 8 2 7 3 . 8 3 0 0 .

" W : • W :1 J 4 8 .

81 .9 0 1 .

76 .4 3 PC 5 • 4 4 6 6 6 . 4 5 9 9 7 . 4 7 2 4 9 . 4 794 0 .

1 5 1 3 2 . 1 5 6 0 4 . 1 5 9 0 P . 16 2 3 6 . 1 6 6 2 6 .6 8 1 5 . 6 9 2 2 . 7 C 3 8 . 7 1 5 ? . 7 2 3 7 .? e i 2 . 7 9 5 4 . e o ? a .

• H I :e 2 9 8 «

2 5 1 . 2 6 1 . 2 6 6 . 2 7 6 .1 5 3 . 1 5 6 .

I M :1 65 .

i n . 1 76 . 1 7 * . 1 0 0 .

s s n : ! i h ' :4 2 3 0 . 2 5 P 6 .

4 3 2 4 . 2 6 4 1 .

4 ? 6 3 . 2? 8 6 .

6 5 . 6 7 . 6 8 . ? ( * . 7 1 .1 7 9 8 2 . 1 8 5 92 . 1 9 2 6 2 . 1 9 9 1 6 . 2 P 4 1 5 .2 4 7 8 4 . 2 5 7 2 6 . 2 6 6 8 5 . 2 7 < 32 . 2 8 5 3 1 .

6 6 3 6 . 6 P 3 2 . 7 0 2? . 721 6 . 734 2 .1 0 5 . 1 0 7 . 11 ri . 1 1 3 . 1 14 .

7 9 . 8 9 . 9 3 . 9 7 . 1 0 3 .2 5 1 ( 1 . 2 6 U 9 . 2 6 9 ? . 2 7 8 1 . 2 8 5 1 .

1 2 7 8 8 . 1 3 7 3 4 . 1 4 2 5 7 . J * • 6 5 6 . 1 5 5 9 1 .1 3 5 8 9 . 1 4 4 0 5 . 1 4 P 1 « . 1 5 3C4 . 1 5 9 1 1 .3 1 3 9 7 . 3 2 ? 4 r » . 3 3 1 6 8 . 34,12.1 . 3 4 6 7 8 .

7 7( j 1 • 8 f «<4 . 8 2 3 C . 8 4 4 2 . 8 6 2 2 .7 3 6 9 3 . 7 4 8 0 1 . 7 5 7 7 9 . 76 7 4 9 . 7 7 5 9 9 .3 4 5 4 6 . 3 51 5 u . 3 5 P 7 6 . 3 6 5 7 5 . 3 7 14 3 .

1 0 74 7 . 1 H 6 5 . 1 1 3 4 5 . 1 1 6 2 8 . 1 1 9 0 6 .1 7 5 3 9 . 7 7 ( 3 .

1 7 7 2 5 . 1 7 8 6 9 . 1 8 '* 2 4 . IB 1 ? 8 •78 6 3 . 8 ( 3 5 . 8 2 C 4 . 8 * 6 9 .

4 3 3 9 . 2 3 0 J .

4?1 4 . 2 3 9 6 .

4 3 5 2 . 24 i 5 .

4 3 e o • 2 4 3 5 . m l :

i < i e i . 1 6 4 1 H . 16< 9 8 . 1 6 9 73 .1 7 4 6 2 . 1 78 7C‘ • 1 8 3 3 4 . 1 8 7 7 5 *

1 1 1 0 7 . 1 1 2 5 6 . 1 1 4 5 3 . 1 1 6 4 ) . . 1 1 754 .

t W l :1 4 4 5 .

1 52 6 1 * . l i f t t : t i W :1 0 9 8 6 . 1 1 2 4 7 . 1 1 3 7 7 . 1 1 5 C 2 . 116 18 .

5 0 6 4 . 5 2 4 8 . 5 3 9 1 . 5 5 4 5 . 56 9 0 .1 2 6 1 5 . 1 2 P 9 5 . 1 3 1 5 5 . 1 3 4 1 7 . 136 |6 .3 9 9 2 4 .

731 .4» 71 6 .

7 4 5 . " h i :4 2 4 72 •

7 78 .4 295 3 .

7 P 9 .3 1 1 6 8 . 3 2 6 7 3 . 3 3 6 9 4 . 34 7 5 2 . 3 5 8 25 .

3 6 4 U . 3 8 4 9 . 3 97 1 . 4 1 i . 3 . 4 ?4 7 .1 7 1 6 7 . I 7 M 7 . 1 7 8 9 2 . 1 8 2 6 4 . 184 7 8 .

4 6 3 2 # 4 7 7 3 . 4 8 8 ? . 5 * 0 3 . 5 0 98 .3 9 6 7 . 41* 79 . 4 2 2 P . 4 3 6 P . 4 4 6 1 .

2 71 84 . 2 81 94 . 2 91' 5 7 . 2 9 9 2 2 . 3 ' U 2 .r ' 5 9 p . 1 0 7 93 . 1 \ < 7 4 . 11 3 5 6 . 1 1 5 5 1 .

z l M l : 2 U & : A m :127 1 .

2 2 M 8 .

6 m :

176

FORECAST rOR

SEC 1 OR

I ? I R ANSP F FRRO « I AHTS74 AUIRES iransp tfrres16 1R»NSP0R1S arm IMESI I TRANSPORTS aeriens1? SERVICES *11X11 TAIRFS79 IE IE COHHJfJi CA TlON 5pf' SERVICE AUX FNlRFPRlei I OCA 1J 0 N El CRE(J 1T-BR2 L O G E F E N l<“ • E NSE I G N E 1 E N 1 (N ARCHA6 5 S A N 1 rS t AUTRE S S F R V l C E S H AR Cf t ASSURANCESPP F I N a N c f

101 Al

FORECAST f o r :

SEC TOR

I A G R I f l l L 1 I IRF? 5Y| V I CU L 1 URF3 PE CHE4 HOI J I L L F . l I P J I i r , Af iG5 COK EF A C I I ONP PE TROI F R A F F I N E9 E U C T R I C I T E n i S l R I R U

I t ' GA? O l S T R l B l l E11 E * II F 1 CHA U F F A RE l.'Rfl1 4 PR OO. n E I * A C l ER16 PF 1 ALX NON F E R R EU X1 1 M I N E R A l I X 01 VERSI P P A IE R. OF CON T R U C 1101 9 VERRF2 ^ C H I H I E M T N F R A L F2 7 P A P A C H I H I E2 7 P R O O U I 1 S P H a R M a C E U I i25 I R A v A I I n ES M F 1 A U Y2 6 M A r H I N F S A H R I C O l F S 31 M C H I N E S OE B L R E A U -*? M a 1E RI Fl- FLFCIRiOIIe ^ 4 H A 1 E R J E L EL £ C l R o N I Q l i35 EOIIIPEMfNT MfNarEP36 UT' H C I I I E S AU 1 0 1 0 R I L E 4' . I N « 1 R I I M E V 1 S E l N A 1 F R 41 V I ANpE S

L AT 1 E 1 P R O O L I I S I A f<13 C ON S E R V E ^*1 *1 P A I N F I P M I S SFR I EM5 PROO I I I I S o i l C.RAfN46 C OR PS GR A S AL IM FN 1 A IH I S U c ' UI P AIJ I f i F S PROD. AL | H F N 1

4 9 r O I SSONS E l At cOOl S 5* ’ 1 A OA T S F I P H O f l .5 2 F 11 S E 1 F I L E S5 ■* P C N N E 1 F R I F5 4 OUVRAGF FN F 11 ES56 A R H n FS EN Cl IR5 1 C H A U S S U U r S

REFERENCE 1FORECAST s e r i f :1 9 16 1 9 7 6 1 9 7 9 1 96 0 1 96 1 1 9 6 2

4 e 4 p . 5 H 3 P . 4 9 .13 . 4 6 7 6 . 4 P 5 6 . 4 7 3 2 .9 9 1 7 . 1 0 4 4 P . U 6 6 6 . 1 0 6 2 ? . 1 0 6 4 2 . 1 (* P 4 f .

5 1 5 . 5 2 5 . 4 6 2 . 4 7 6 . 466 . 45 7.14 12. 1 6 53. 1 6 3 3 . 165 1. 1 6 94 . 1 6 ? ? .i e 6 6 . 21 I P . 2 1 f 3 . 2121, 21 7 2 . 2 1 5 7 .ie * t . 7 7 2 5 . 9 6 6 1 . 1 Ji '6 5. 1 0 3 1 6 . 1 0 541 .7 4 9 1 . 7 4 4 0 . 74 1 3 . 1556 . 1121, 7 ? e i .1 2 1 C . 1 44 5. 1 4 6 1 . 15.14 . 1 5 6 6 . 1 5 6 6 .

92212. 14 6 5 6 6 . 1 1 ( 2 1 6 . 11 39 66 . 116567 . 12t 669 .4 4 - i a . 4 7 6 1 . 4 6 6 9 . 4 9 6 9 . 5 0 6 0 • 51 5 6 .

9 0 9 3 3 . 1 0 5 7 9 3 . i r 19 i t . 1 0 9 95 1 , 1 1 2 1 0 7 . 1) 441*6 .2 3 6 3 0 . 2 6 1 3 2 . 2 6 3 3 5 . 2 6 4 6 9 , 2 6 P4 1 . 2 7 M 4 .104 j 3. 140 3 4 . 16 7 3 7 . 1 7 1 3 6 . 1 7 5 2 5 . 1 8 1 6 5 .2 e 9 5 . 2 P 2 4 . 5 6 6 2 . 2 8 P 6 a 2 9 1 6 . ? 9 4 6 .

9 1 6 4 4 3 . 9 8 2 2 5 9 . 1 0 0 4 2 2 9 . 1 0 2 3 1 ' i e . 1 0 4 7 5 7 7 . 1 0 6 9 5 2 7 . !

R EF E R E NC E FORECAST GROUTH

7 6 - 7 6 7 P - 7 9 1 9 - 6 0 8 0 - 6 1 6 1 - 6 2 6 2 - 6 3

PCE

- . 6 9 - < * . 1 5

3 . 5 2 2 . P9 4 . 0 6 3* I d

1 1 . 45 9 . 9 ? 6 . 5 5

. 6 5 7 . 2 0 1 . 2 « i 7 . 16 2 . 4 6 5 . 4 1 2.2? 4 . 2 5

- 1 . 5 55 . 5 3 4 . 5 1 2 . 1 6

1 0 . 4 1 . 3 9 . 5 6

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1 RA N SP R 0 I I 1 I E R S O f M M A 11 ON I N 1FR I F UR 1 R A N S P 0 R 1 S MAR I I i M F S I R AN S P 0 R 1 S A E R I F N S

S F R V l C F S AUXI L ( A I R F S 1ELE C OM H I f j l CA 1 I 0 N S

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SEC 1 OR

I AS RI CUI 1URF7 SVL v I c I I L I U R f’ FE CHE<i h o o i l i . F t l I r N I t r * A n n

1976 1978 1 979 I 9 6 0

4 4 5 . 9 3 5 . 99 6. 1 06 6.6668 . e e i 9 . S 5 1 4 . 1 U 4 5 2 .399 7. 4 6 3 5 . 5U1 2. 5 2 2 e .6 0 4 5 . 1 'J J 2 ?. 1234 J . 1 5 J 6 3 .4 716 . 5 2 i 8 . £ 7 1 1 . 5 6 1 0 .41 2 9 . 296 3. 4 3 6 5 . 4 7 77.

2 15 15 . 21721 . 24541 . 26363 .I P ! . 1 4 6 . 17U. 1 9 4 .

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2 4 . ,2 3. 3 3 . 3 3.1 7 76 . 1814 . 1CS5. 1 9 3 3 .4 3 0 2 . 4 « 7 8 . 4 9 J 7 . 492U.

e * i . 7 9 2 , 11 0. l i e .2476 . 2716 . 2 746 . 279 2 .1 3 4 9 . 17 49. 1 769. 1 6 35 .5 4 1 . 161 . 7 1 6 . 111.1 5 5 1 . 1 5 7 7 . 1 766. 204 4.2 3 2 3 . 2 2 P 0 . 2 4 « 6 . 2 5 C l .3 1 6 2 . 2 26 2. 3 I . 397 0.6 6 1 4 . 9 213 . 1 0 ) 2 5 . 1 J 5 1 9 .

9 3 9 . 9 76 * 1025 . 1 ft J1 .6 6 4 . 9 0 9 . 1 0 2 4 . I u 6 7.

2139 . 2 4 6 8 . 2 P 56 . 2 6 4 3 .4 1 5 9 . 4 1 9 9 . 4 4 3 5 . 4 6 0 9 .3 4 *14 . 3 3 76 . 3 6 C 2 . 3 7 1 9 .31 3 6 . 3 1 9 7 . 3 2 7 1 . 2 4 6 6 .e 4 5 i . 9 7 6 5 . 1( 2 4 0 . 1 U 5 S 4 .2 6 1 9 . 2 0 4 5 * 22 £6 . 3 4 4 2 .2 7 3 1 . 3*16 2 . 3 3 4 5 . 2 6 . 1 4 .2 9 3 4 . 4 46 « » . £ (i EC . 5 I S C .4 9 3 2 . 6 1 0 7. 6 6 6 1 . 7 7 0 6 .1 1 U 3 . 1 3 5 8 . 14 2 H . 1 4 6 5 .

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3 1 6 . 2 2 2 . 34 3 . 3 5 0 .9 5 3 7 . 1 1 4 0 7 . 1 2 2 * 5 . 1 2 1 6 0 .

1 4 5 . 1 4 6 . 1 4 6 . 1 4 6 .24 1 . 2 4 3 . 2 4 3 . 2 4 3 .6 2 6 . 7 9 5 . 9 u 6 . 9 2 7 .^ 2 5 . 1 6 1 . 6< 3 . 9 4 9 .

2 4 4 2 3 1 . 2 6 9 3 7 5 . 2 9 1 7 4 6 . 41 9 7 5 7 .

R EF E R EN C E F0 R FC AS 1

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I I 9 7 2 . 1 1 9 3 .1 31 9 . 3 3 4 4 . 5 2 6 2 . 4 0 71 . 3 f 7 7 .

1 1 6 2 9 . 3 9 6 6 . 4 2 7 2 . 6 1 2 5 . 9 7 2 1 . 1 6 2 3 .

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r o R C C A S i f o r : R EF E R EN C E F O R E C A S l

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2 8 4 1 . 3 3 s e . 3 7 2 9 . 4 2 9 9 . 4 ? 9 6 ,3 8 7 . 4 5 0 . 5 0 8 . 5 8 5 . 5 8 5

- 1 6 5 . - 8 91 . - 1 U D 5 a - 1 1 5 8 . - 1 1 5 7 ,- 1 5 8 . - 1 8 4 . —2t» 7 a - 2 3 9 . - 2 1 9

2 5 1 0 5 . 2 9 23 1 . 3 2 9 5 5 . 3 7 9 8 8 . 3 7 9 6 0

GROWTH R A T F S F O R : CHANGES I N I N V F N T O R I F ^

8 1 - 8 2 82 - 8 3 e 3 - 8 4 8 4 - 8 5

1 6 . 4 4 1 2 . 7 4 15 . 2 7 _ . 0 71 6 . 4 6 1 2 . 7 3 1 5 . 2 3 —. »416 . 4 4 12 . 7 4 15 . 2 7 - . 0 71 6 . 4 4 12 . 7 4 15 . 2 7 - .*J 71 6 . 4 4 1 2 . 7 4 15 . 2 7 —. 0 71 6 . 4 4 1? . 7 4 15 . 2 7 - .0 11 6 . 4 4 1? . 7 4 15 . 2 7 - a f 71 6 . 4 4 1 5 . 2 7 - • rl *16 . 4 4 12 . 7 4 15 . 2 7 -1 6 . 6 7 13 . 1 0 14 . 7 4 . u1 6 . 4 4 1 2 . 7 4 1 5 . 2 ? - . 0 716 . 4 4 1 2 . 7 4 15 . 2 7 - . 0 71 6 . 4 4 1? . 7 4 15 . 2 7 - . V I1 6 . 4 4 1 2 . 7 4 1 5 . 2 7 - . 0 716 . 4 4 12 . 7 4 15 . 2 7 - . f l1 6 . 4 4 1 2 . 7 4 15 . 2 7 - . 1 7

?*:M » ? : « 1 ? : ? /—

: ? !1 6 . 4 4 1 2 . 7 4 15 . 2 7 - . U l1 6 . 4 41 6 . 4 4 U : i ! 1 ? : ? J : : 8 {16 . 4 4 1 ? . 7 4 15 . 2 7 - .C 71 6 . 4 4 1 2 . 74 1 5 . 2 7 - . 0 71 6 . 4 4 12 . 7 4 I S . 2 1 - .V 116 . 4 4 12 . 7 4 15 . 2 7 - •C 71 6 . 4 4 1 2 . 7 4 1 5 . 2 7 - . 0 11 6 . 4 4 1 2 . 7 4 1 5 . 2 7 - • ~*11 6 . 4 4 1 ? . 7 4 15 . 2 1 - . 0 71 6 . 4 4 1 2 . 74 1 5 . 2 7 - . 0 71 6 . 4 4 12 . 7 4 15 . 2 7 - . 0 71 6 . 4 4 1 2 . 7 4 1 5 . 2 7 - . 0 716 . 4 4 1 ? . 7 4 15 . 2 7 - •C 71 6 . 4 4 1 2 . 74 15 . 2 7 - . ^ 71 6 . 4 4 1 2 . 7 4 15 . 2 7 - . J 71 6 . 4 4 1 2 . 74 15 . 2 7 - . 0 71 6 . 4 4 1? . 7 4 15 . 2 7 - . * 71 6 . 4 4 1 2 . 7 4 15 . 2 7 - . 0 71 6 . 4 4 1? . 7 4 15 . 2 7 - . U1 6 . 4 4 1 2 . 7 4 1 5 . 2 7 - . 0 7

182

F ORECAST FOR

SFC TORREFER ENCF FORECAST

? 6 - ? 8 I P - 7 9 1 9 - 8 1GROWTH RATFS FORI CHANGES IN INVF NTORIF S

M f CORP*. GR A S A L I M eN I A !4 7 SUCRf4P A U l R f S P R O n . AL i M f N l•19 A O I S S O N S F l AL TOOLS50 1ARACS E l P R OD .51 F I I S F l F l f l R E S AR1 I F 5? F I l S F 1 F I L F S5 3 p O N N E l r R l F54 OUVRAGE EN F l t F S5 5 C U I R S F l P E A U *5 6 A R l I C l F S EN Cti IR5 7 CH A U SSt l RF S5P H « « I L L E M F N 15 9 PROD ni» P O I S6 KEU'filFS61 P A P I E Rt CAR10N6 2 PRF S5F • I M P R I M E R I E . E O6 3 PNF U M i T I 0 U E 56 4 P R OO. P L A S I i a i l F S6 5 I N D U S T R I E S O l VERSFS6 6 P A l I H F N l F l G E N I E C l6 7 R E CU P E R A T I O N

1 0 U L

76 .33 . 30 I 79.2e ll.s u -43.64 171.92

• JO -5e.77.TO . a j 18.26 29.79 -29. 19 -?4 .90 -64.56 .10 .00• ao e.7o3l.ee-52.97-e.09

- I 3 . i' 8

51 . 5 65 1 . 5 6 51 . 5 6 51 . 5 6 5 1 . 56 51 . 5 6 5 1 . 56 51 . 5 6 5 1 . 565 1 . 5 6 51 . 5 65 1 . 5 65 1 . 5 6 51 . 5 6 5 1 . 56 51 . 5 6 5 1 . 565 1 . 5 6 51 . 5 65 1 . 5 6 51 . 5 6 5 1 . 56

1 2 . 2 0 1 2 . 2 0 12 . 2 0 12 .20 ■12. 20 12 .2t

•1 2. 20 12.20 1 2 . 2 0 I 2 . 2 0 12.20 •1 2.20 ■1 2.20 12.20 -12.20 1 2 . 2 0

■1 2 . 2 0 -12. 20 12.20 | 2. 20 I2.2f 12. 205 1 . 5 6 - 1 2 . 2 0

21^92 1 . 0 9 21 . 0 9 21 . P 92 1 . 0 9

21 . P 92 1 . 0 9 21 . 0 92 1 . 0 92 1 . 0 9 21 «U92 1 . 0 9 2 1 . f> 9 21 . 0 92 1 . 0 9

21 . 0 92 1 . 0 92 1 . 0 9 2 1 . 0 92 1 . 0 9 21 *(?92 1 . 0 9

21 . 0 9

eu-e i

itZ **i l 16 1 6 16 16 1 6 16 16 16 1 6

nau 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 6

16 .Oi l

e i-e?

FORECAST FORJ

SEC 10RRE F E R E N C E F 0 R E C A S 1

1 9 J 6 1 9 ?P 1 9 7 9

I N V F S I . OFS s o r .

I N V E S 1 .INVE SI.I N i/E S I .

OES MEN AGES OF S E N 1 . OF n F S e n i . n * A OF S A OM S P UP HES Af lM< PR I

1 9 3 5 6 3 . 1 * 8 7 5 5 . I 34 7 5 .

21 95 . 4 e e 7 7 .

I 1 U 5 .

1 9 6 8 5 1 . 8 7 2 3 5 . 1 3 2 4 8 .

2 4 2 1 . 4 8 4 7 4 .

1 2 0 5 .

21 4 0 6 1 . 6 8 5 5 3 . 1 3 3 1 2 .

2 4 3 3 . 4 9 t e 2 .

1 * 2 3 .

I98f2 1 1 5 8 9 .

8 8 4 3 8 . I 3 ) 6 1 .

2 3 8 7 . 5 d U « 5 .

1 2 4 5 .

1 9 8 1

2 1 4 4 2 2 . 8 7 7 6 0 . 1 2 8 1 3 .

2 3 4 1 . 5 1 3 7 9 .

1 2 7 7 .

82 -8 3 8 3 - 8 4 8 4 - 8 5

12 .74 15 .27 - . 0 71 2 . 7 4 1« . 27 - . 0 712 .74 1 5 . ? ? - . J ?12 . 7 * 15 .2? - . 0 1I - ? * * 11 1 5 . 2 7 - . ' 1 ?12 .74 15 .27 - . : j ?1 2 . 74 1 5 . 2 ? - . 0 ?12 .74 15 . 2? - . n i1 2 . 74 1 5 . 2 ? - . 0 ?1 2 . 74 1 5 . 2 ? -.)?12 .74 15 .27 - . c ?1 2 . 74 1 5 . 2 7 -.0?1 2 . 7 4 1 5 . 2 ? -.»?12 .74 15 . 27 ~.c?1 2 . 7 4 1 5 . 2 7 - . n r12 .74 15 .?? -.'J?1 2 . 74 1 5 . 2 7 -.0?1 2 . 74 1 5 . 2 ? - . 1 71 2 . 7 4 15 .2? - . 0?

ll:H 13:11 ~.M7-.0?1 2 . 74 1 5 . 2 7 -.0?1 2 . 7 4 15 . 2 7 - . U 7

s e r i f : P . O . F .

1 9P2 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 4

2 1 1 7 5 9 . 8 7 9 2 1 . 1 2 7 0 3 .

2 3 2 1 . 5 1 9 9 4 .

1 2 9 3 .

2 1 2 5 U 1 . J 8 8 4 3 8 . 1 3 3 0 1 .

2 4 3 1 . 5 2 2 1 3 .

1 2 9 0 .

211(534 . P 9 2 9 1 o 1 3934 .

2 5 4 1 . 5241*6 .

1 3 0 3 .1 0 1 Al 34 7 8 ? f . 3 4 9 4 3 4 . 3 5 8 1 * 9 . 3 6 6 8 0 6 . 3 6 9 9 9 3 . 36 7 99 6 . 3 7 U 1 P ? . 3 6 9 9 7 9 .

FOR E C A S l F O R: R E F F R E N C F FORECAST GROWTH R A T F S FOR : P . lSEC 1 0 F 7 6 - 7 8 7 8 - 7 9 7 9 - 8 0 e o - e i 8 1 - 8 2 8 2 - 8 3 8 3 - 8 4 8 4 - e 5

1 I N Vf2 I N V t3 INVF4 I N V t5 I N VE6 I NV E

: S I .S I .

: s i .S I .

: s i .s i .

HFS SOC. n FS HF N A GF S nFS F N 1 . PF OFS F N l . f l ' A HES A H l S P UB PFS AOMS P R I

. 8 5- . 8 6- . 8 57 . 5 1 ;- . 4 14 . 4 3

3 . 6 7 1 . 5 1

. 4e

. * 8 1 . 46 1 . 4 6

3. 6 9 - . 1 3

- 1 . 8 8 - 1 . 6 8

1. e4 1 .84

1 . 3 4 - . 7 ?

- 1 . 9 0 - 1 . 9 0

2 . 5 82 . 5 8

- 1 . 2 4 . 1 9

- . 8 6 - . 8 6 1 . 2 0 1 . 2 U

. 3 5

. 5 e 4 . 7 1 4 . 7 1

. 4 2

. 4 2

- . 9 3 . 9 6

4 . 5 3 4 . 5 3

• 3? . 3 1

1 . 9 0 . 1 9

3 . 1 3 3 . 1 3

.Ol»

. M1 0 1 A I . 2 2 < 2 . 6 ? 2 . 2 4 . 8 7 - . 5 4 . 5 9 - . ( b 1 . 2 6

I 9 e 5

? I 4 5 ? 9 . 8 9 4 6 1 . 143 38 .

2 6 2 0 . 5 24 06 .

1 3 0 3 .

3 7 4 6 5 9 .

183

FORECAST FOR!

SECTORR E F E R EN C E F O R E C A S l

1 9 7 6 1 9 1 8 1 9 1 9

12 ■» 4 •5 f7f>

1 92 1'2 !22232 *1 25 2 * 2? 28293031 3? 3 3 3*1 3 5

a r r i . » s y i . »p p t h ewi ANIV PROO. L A f T I E R

» UT RE < PROr . A L i M . COMR. M I N . S O I .PF THOl F t g A?

E l E f T R I r l l F R A ? EAU f l N . . H e T A U X FER.

K I N . . ME T AUX NON FER M l . OE C ONST RUC. VERFiEC H I ' l I F OF RASE p A r a c h i h i f

F ONnE RI F C O N S . M E r .A .M « T . E l r r . PRO F . E O I ' I P . M t N A f i E R A l l T O M O p l l F C 0 N S 1 R . N A wAL E 1C XT 1 1 F

fco ls . HEU«LES P A P I f RPRE SSE » E n i H O N C a o u i c h o u c . p i AS1 P A T t MF f>T COMMERCE F F P . COM. AUTO

HOTEL S . C A F E S TRAN S P 0 R1 S P . T . 1 .S E R v . f N T R e P .‘ F R t f . P A R T .

I Of ; * o | ) . I MMO ASSURANCES

S E R V . O R P . f I N .

TOTAL

4v6 . 1 5*.

V ' *4 4 .

221.t l .

2 u 3 .7 7 .

i e e . 1 6 1 . 5 1 5 . 5 * 9 . 4 1 0 . 1 0 8 . 52*1 . 2 3 6 .

* 1 2 . 1 2 1 . 3 4 0 . 1 3 ? . 2 U 7 . 2 2 6 .

1 5 1 6 . 1 8 3 5 .

3 u e . 3 5 5 . 8 1 5 . 4 1 5 . 7 u l .

1 3 4 3 . 5 2 .

1 2 7 . 3 9 3 .

3 8 5 . 1*7. 3 5 3 . IP. *12. 1 12. 2 20l1 9 l !

74 -ie:1 5 8 . 5C 3 . 5 5 1 . *15*« . 10 2 , 5 3 6 . 2 4 3 . 5 6 2 .

' z i \ : 2 2 6 . H«5.

1 8 7 1 „3 2 2 . 3 * 9 . 6 2 2 .4 4 2 . 7 72 .

1 4 9 1 . 6 I f .

1 3 6 . 7 9 6 ,

3 t e .i n .3 4 ? .

f l . 4 1 .

1 6S. 2 2 6 . £1.

1 P 4 .1 5 .

1 7 7 . 1 5 7 . 5 C 2 . 5 4 5 . 4 5 2 . 100. 5 3 0 . 2 5 0 . 5 4 2 . 115. 1 2 4 . 1 2 4 . 210. 2 2 6 .

1 4 5 6 . 1 9 1 8 .

3 2 * ) . 3 1 1 . 8 J 4 . 4 5 1 . 7«3.

I 5 1 5 . <3.

1 4 3 . 3 S 6 .

36 5 o 1 7 ? . 3 4 4 .

81 . 4 0 .

1*1 . 2 2 6 .

54 , 1 7 9 .

7 4 .1 7 3 .1 5 5 .5 C 3 .5 4 1 .4 2 8 .

9 9 .5 2 7 .2 5 0 .5 2 3 ,* ! 3 * 3 14 1 1 1 3 . 210. 2 2 4 .

1 4 2 6 . 1 9 6 4 .

3 1 6 . 3 1 6 , 7 8 7 . 4 5 A . ei9,

1 5 3 2 .* e .

1 4 8 .3 9 5 .

1 9 8 0

1 4 1 1 9 . 1 4 2 1 5 . 1 4 2 2 8 . 1 4 1 9 * .

FORECAST FOR R E F E R E NC E FORECASTSEC TOR

1 flORI . *SYl . .PfcME ? VT ANOF PROn. L AIIIER 7 A 111 RE 5 PROO. AL IM.

C0.1R. MIN. SOL.PE TROI r , Ga?El E ClRI Cl TE RA7 FAU

1 * 1 V

^ N . . M E T A l ' X . F ER.M f l AUX NON FER

t K A T . f l F C ON S T R UC .1 0 VERI$E11 C H I H I F HE RASE 1 ? P a Ra t H I K I f13 F C N n E R J f14 C O N S . f * ECA.1 5 K A T . F I F C . P R O F .1 6 E C I J I P . MENARER 1? AUTOrOpILr

j * O ^ S T R . N A VALEf T I L F

7 6 - 18 7 « * - 7 9 n - R t i e n - 8 i----— — — — —— — «- 2 . 6 8 - 1 . 1 7 - 3 . 9 2 - 3 , 1 8

2 . 9 4 2 . 2 3 . 76 1 . 98. * ,5o - . 9 C - 1 . 5 3 - . 6 4

- 1 . 4 2 ■* .97 - . 4 1 - 1 . 1 1- 2 . f i 4 - 1 . 9 4 - 2 . 1 4 - 1 . 4 7- . 4 8 - 1 . e c - 4 . 8 5 - 3 . 8 8- . 5 3 ?.6C» . 0 2 • 21

- 3 . 3 7 - P . 9 4 - 4 . 9 3 - 4 , 5 J- 2 . 9 J

. 2 )- 3 . P I

1 . 9 ?- 2 . 5 1

- . 8 1- 1 . 2 4 - 3 . 0 1 - 2 . 5 6 - 1 . 4 3- 1 . 0 1 - . 1 1 - 1 . 4 2 - . 5 6- 1 . 1 2 - . 3 1 . 1 9 . 4 1- l . t j - 1 .1 7 - . 1 7 - . * 1- 1 . 6 9 - . 4 5 - 5 . 2 4 - 3 . 0 1- 3 . 0 9 - 2 . " ? - . 2 0 - . 32

. 1 5 - 1 . 1 6 - . 4 3 1 . 0 21 . 5 6

- 4 . 1 73.0: .»

- 3 . 4 6 - v j i - . 6 3 - 2 . 2 7

s e r i f : e m p l o y m e n t

1981 19 82 1983 1984 1985

354 . 344 . 335 .

1 1<•4

t *3

| • 3 2 5 .

1 7 * . 1 7 9 . 1 83 . >S?: 19 3 .342 . 34| . 3 3 P . 3 4 0 .

80 . 7P . 76 . 74 . 7 3 .3 9 . 3 9 . 3 8 . 3 8 . 3/ .

154 . 154 . 146 . 144 . 14? .2 2 7 . 22 7. 227 . 2 2 8 . 228 •5 2 . 4 9 , 49 . 51 . 54 .

1 74. 1 / r . 1 6 5 . 163 . 1 * 0 .74 . 74 . 74 . 75 . 74 .1 7 1 . 1 71 . 1 13 . 1 7 9 . 18 3.1 5 4 . 1 5 5 . 1 5 5 . 15 7 . 15/ .5 0 5 . 504 , 5 c 1 . 499 . 494 .5 3 7 . 5 3 5 . 5 3 5 . 5 3 8 . 5 3 9 .4 1 5 . 4 1»• . 4 01 . 3 e e . 3 6 9 .

9 9 . 1 J ? . l t ' 4 .I M :

1 1 2 .5 3 3 . 536 . 54 1 . 5 5 9 .24 6 . 24 8 . 24? . 24 7 . 24 4 .511 . 497 . 484 . 470 . 468 .1 1 5 . 11 7. n e . 1 2 2 . 1 2 3 .7 0 8 . 3U2. 2 9 5 . 2 9 0 . 2a 3 .1 3 3 . 132 . 13 C . 128 o 1 2 5 .21 3 . 2 1 5 . 2 1 6 . 2 2 ) . 2 2 3 .2 2 5 . ) 225 . 225 . 227 . 2 2 7 .

I * 8 5 *M 5 U . I???: I ? 9 3 * 2 2 0 / . I 2 5 ? -22 4 i .1 2 1 2 .2268 .

,31 £ - 3 1 5 . 30 9 . 3 0 1 .38 5 . 7 94 , 413 . 416 . 408 .7 7 5 . 7 6 6 . 7 5 * . 7 3 2 . / 0 5 .4 7 2 . 4 8 7 . 51/2 • 50 9 . 5 14 .8 0 ( i . ? 9 * . 777 . 7 68 . 7 9 9 .

- ,5SI: 1 6 0 1 .77 . 'V I: “ 15: W5I:

1 4 4 .4 0 2 . .’31: H i : 51?: I 2 e .

4 2 0 .1 4 2 0 3 . 1 4 2 4 6 . 1 4 2 6 8 . 1 4 2 7 8 . 14 2 35 .

GROUTH R A T E S F O R : EMPLOYMENT

6 4-85-2.i'6

2 . 5 2 -.10* * 5-1 ,ll9

-1 . 6 7

4 t i l

i : l \- 1 . 3 6

. 1 3 - 4 . 8 6

3 . 3 9 1 . 5 0

e i - 8 2 82 - t 3 P 3 - P 4

- 2 . 1 3 - 2 . 5 7 - . 8 71 . 9 7 1 . 9 4 3 . 3 5- . 4 6 - . 5 1 . 7 0

- 2 . 6 9 - 2 . 4 7 - 2 . 9 J-1 . 7 3 - f . 7 2 - . 5 1- 2 . 9 5 - 2 .6 9 -1 . 3 5

~ . D 3 - • * 1 . * 5- 4 . 81 . 4 9 4 . C3

-* :U - j ; ? 5• <>1 1 . 5 P 3 . 0 1. 3 5 . 1 2 1 . 7 0

- . 2 9 - . ? 6 - . 2 6- . 5 0 - . C l . 7 3

- 1 . 3 5 -2 .1 h - 3 . 3 12 . 5 7 2 . 7 6 7 . 5 4

. 6 1 . * 4 1 . 9 0- . J 5 . 1 5

- 2 .12 - 2 . f 7 -1 . 2 1

H*004>

2<* C H i R21 B O I S # ME ' I R L E S2 ? P * P I F R27 PRE SSE # E n I I T ON2 4 C a O I I I r H O l l c * P L AS125 P » 1 I H F N 1 2 6 CO I«ERrE2 I R EP * COM. A U I O?P HOTEL S » C A F E S2 * I R A N SPOR TS30 P . 1 . 1 .31 5 E R V . F N 1 R E P .12 S E R t f . P a R I .3 ’ L OC» C . f l . IHMO34 A < < U R A NC F S3 5 S E R V . OR G. F I N .

1 01 Al

f o r e c a s i f o r :

SECTOR

REFFRENCF F0RFCAS1

> 1 CD 78- 79 7 9 - 8 0

- 3 . 0 9 . e o - 1 . 1 5- 1 . 5 1 - 1 . I B - 3 . Cl- 1 . 0 6 - . 2 1 - 1 . 0 2

. 6 4 . 2 7 . 27

. 1 5 - . 1 1 - 1 . 0 5- 2 . 9 3 - i . e ? - 2 . 19

. 9 1 ? . 5 l i 3 . 4 52 . 2 2 - . e * * - 1 . 1 51 . 9 8 . 5 1 1 . 1 9

. 4 1 - ? . H 9 - 2. 2f»2 . 2 2 i . e 5 1 . 6 C4 . 9 4 2 . 6 5 3 . 3 15 . 3 1 1 . 6 3 1 . 1 17 . 1 9 * . 0 4 7 . 3 33 . 2 3 5 . 1 7 3 . 35

. 4 5 - . 1 2 - . C 7

. 3 4 . H 9 - . 2 2

F O R E C A S T F O R :

S E C 1 0 R

1 AGKI . . S Y l . t P E C H E2 V I AN PE P R O n . I A l l I E R3 AUTRES PROO. I L I H .4 COMR. M I N . S O L .5 PF 1 R 0 L F , G A 76 E L E C 1 R I C I 1 E GA7 FAU7 M I N . * MF1 A (J X F E R .8 K I N . . M F I A L X NON FER9 m a i . n r C 0 N S 1 R H C .

P vERREI t C H I H I C n F RASE12 P A R A C H I M I E1 » F O N D E R I f14 C C N S . H E C A .1 5 M A I . T L E C . P R O F .I f F Q U I P . MFNARER17 A U T O M O B I L EI P C O N S I R . W A AL F19 IE * l i t F

2 0 C I J I R?1 R O I S . M E I ' R L E S

2 2 P A P I E R2 ’ PRE S 5 E» E nI I I ON24 C A O U l ^ H O l I C »° L AST2 5 B A 1 I N F M?6 COMMERCE27 R E P . COM. AUI O

2 » H 0 1 E I S» C AFFS2 9 T R A N S P O R T S3 0 P . T . l .31 S E Rt f . FN T R E f * .3 2 S E R V . P a R I .3 3 L O C t C . R . I MM O34 a S S I I R a Mc f S3 5 « E R * . O R G . F i n .

A VF h aG f

R E F E R EN C E F 0 R E C A S 1

1 9 7 6 1 9 I P 1 9 1 9

4 2 . 5 4 1 . 5 4 1 . 14 2 . 5 4 1 . 5 4 1 . 14 2 . 5 4 1 . 5 4 1 . 13 9 . 3 2 9 . 1 3 t . f i4 u . 4 4 ) . l 4 U . 04 J . 0 3 9 . 8 3 9 . 64 3 . ti 4 1 . 3 4c . 64 3 . U 4 1 . 3 4 u . 74 i , e 41 . 1 4 C . 14 1 . 8 4 C . 7 4 0 . 14 0 . 1 3 9 . 9 3 S . 64 T . 1 1 9 . 9 3 9 . 64 2 . 3 4 1 . 1 41 . 64 1 . 7 4 H . 5 4 0 . 04 1 . 2 4 1 . 4 40.1. 'I 1. * 1 4 ( . 1 3 S . 64 1 . 4 4 0 . e 4 u . 44 1 . 7 4*. . 7 4 1 . 24 1 . 4 4 0 . P 4 0 . 64 1 . 7 4 f . 6 4 c . 24 2 . 9 4 1 . 5 4: . 8

4 w . 4 3 9 . e 3 * . 44 1 . 4 4u . 8 4 J . 54 1 . 6 4 ^ . 6 4 ». f4 4 . 3 4 2 . 9 4 2 . 74 2 . 3 4 1 . 5 4 1 . 24 3 . 7 4 2 . 3 41 . 74 3 . 2 4 2 . e 4 2 . 54 1 . 9 4 1 . 3 41 . u4 c . 6 4 1 . 4 4 1 . 24 1 . 2 4 0 . 5 4'.». 34 t , 2 4 r , r . 3 S . 94 ‘ l . u 7 9 . 9 3 9 . e4 v . 1 3 9 . 9 3 9 . 8M C I . * 3 9 . 9 3 9 . 8

4 1 . 9 4 1 . 1 4 i . 7

GROWTH RATFS FOR: F^PIOVMEM8 0 - 8 1 81 - e ? 8 2 - 8 3 8 3 - 8 4 e 4 - 8 5

1 . 33 i . 6 a U ? 5 2 . 8 4 . e e- 1 . 9 * - 1 . 1 2 - 2 . 4 7 - 1 . 6 3 - 2 . s e

- . 2 7 - . 2 4 - 1 . 8 7 - 1 . 5 9 - 2 . 4 9l . ? l . 8 8 . 6 1 1 . 7 7 1 . 1 5

. 3 4 . 3 1 - . 0 2 . 9 6 - . 3 6- 2 . 8 8 - 3 . 6 1 - 3 . C 9 - 3 . 3 8 - 2 . 9 9

3 . 2 6 3 . 7 7 3 . 7 2 1 . 7 6 1 .-JC- . 0 1 - • f U - . 1 9 - 1 . 9 7 - 2 . 512 . 4 4 2 . 3 1 ? . 3 1 . 8 1 . 3 $

- 1 . 5 3 - 1 . 1 5 - 1 . 2 3 - 3 . 2 6 - 3 . 6 73 . 0 ? 3 . 1 5 3 . 2 7 1 . 3 9 . 9 3

- 2 . 36 - . 4 8 - 2 . 3 4 - 1 . 2 )2 . 1 ? 2 . 3 2 2 . 3 3 . 7 97 . 9 0 5 . 76 6 . o e 5 . 9 2 5 . 4 1

- 4 . 2 1- 2 . 2 9 - 1 . 8 5 - 1 . 6 5 - 3 . 8 11 . 6 2 1 . 9 0 2 . I P . 4 3 - . C 2

. 0 5 • 3D . 3 H - . 0 ? - . 3 0

I 9 P 0 1 9 E 1

s f r i e :

1 9 8 ?

NUM.

1 9 8 3

OF HOURS

1 9 8 4

PER UF

1 9 8 5_ _ _ _

4 3 . 8 4 P . 5 4 . 1 . 3 4 0 . 1 3 9 . 9 3 9 . 84 0 . P 4 0 . 5 * 0 . 3 4 0 . 1 3 9 . 9 3 9 . 84 J . 8 4 n . 5 4 J . 3 40 . 1 3 9 . 9 3 9 . 83 e . 5 3 8 . 2 3 7 . 9 7 7 . 7 3 7 . 4 3 7 . 23 9 . 9 3 9 . 9 3 9 . e 3 9 . 8 * 9 . e 3 9 . 83 9 . 3 3 9 . T 3 8 . 7 3 8 . 4 3 8 . 1 3 7 . 94 0 . 1 3 9 . 7 3 9 . 4 39 . 2 3 9 . 1 3 e . 94 0 . 2 3 9 . 9 2 9 . 7 3 9 . 5 3 9 . 4 3 9 . 33 9 . 8 3 9 . 4 3 9 . 2 39 . 0 3P . 8 3 8 . 73 9 . P 3 9 . 4 3 9 . 2 3 9 . J 28 .e 3 8 . 73 S . 4 3 9 . 2 3 9 . » ' 3 e . e 2P . 7 3 8 . 53 9 . 4 3 9 . 2 3 9 . 0 3 8 . 8 3 8 . 7 3 8 . 54 0 . 1 3 9 . 8 3 9 . 5 3 9 . 2 2 9 . i 3 8 . 92 9 . 5 3 9 . 1 3 8 . 8 3 8 . 6 3 8 . 4 3 8 . 23 9 . 7 3 9 . 5 3 9 . 2 2 9 . 1 3 8 . 9 3 8 . 83 9 . 2 3 P . 8 3 8 . 5 7 8 . 2 38 .1 3 ? .e4 0 . 1 3 9 . 8 3 9 . 5 3 9 . 3 3 9 .1 2 8 . 92 9 . P 3 9 . 5 3 9 . 2 3 8 . 9 3 P . 8 2 8 . 64 1 . 4 4 H . 2 4i l .1 2 9 . 9 3 9 . 8 2 9 . 7

3 9 . 8 3 9 . 5 3 9 . 3 2 9 . 1 2 8 . 9 3 8 . 74 0 . 2 ? 9 . 7 3 9 . 3 3 8 . 9 3 8 . 6 2 8 . 3

3 9 . C 3 8 . 7 7 P . 4 7 8 . 2 3 7 . 9 3 7 . 74 1 . 3 4 0 . 1 3 9 . 9 3 9 . e 3 9 . 7 2 9 . 63 9 . 7 3 9 . 4 7 9 . 1 3 e . i 3 8 . 7 3 8 . 64 2 . 5 4 2 . 2 4 2 4 1 . 8 4 1 . 7 41 . 54 1 . 9 4 0 . 7 4 : 1 . 4 4 0 . 3 38:1 2 9 . 94 1 . 2 4 0 . P 4Lt . 5 4 J . 3 5 0 . 04 2 . 3 4 2 . 0 4 1 . 8 4 1 . 6 4 1 . 4 41 . 24 1 . 7 4 D . 4 4 H . 2 3 9 . 9 3 9 . 7 * 54 0 . 1 3 9 . 9 7 9 . P * 9 . 6 39 . 5 5 9 . 44 0 . 1 3 9 . 9 3 9 . 7 2 9 . 5 3 9 . 4 2 9 . 33 9 . 1 3 9 . 6 3 9 . 5 2 9 . 4 3 9 . 2 5 9 . 13 9 . 7 3 9 . 6 3 9 . 5 3 9 . 3 3 9 . 2 3 9 . 13 9 . 7 3 9 . 6 3 9 . 5 3 9 . 3 39 . 2 2 9 . 13 9 . 7 3 9 . 6 3 9 . 5 3 9 . 3 3 9 . 2 3 9 . 1

4 C . 5 4 l i . ? 4 V .C 3 9 .8 7 9 . 6 3 9 . 5

185

F 0 K E C A 5 1 FOR REFERENCF FORECASTSEC 10 8

9M 1 1 12 1 7 1 4 15 1 6 1 7 1 P1 9 20 ?J 2 ? 2 3 ?1 7 5 712 7 2R 2 9 3 ( 11 323 ■* 3*1 35

»G K l . *SY| , * P E r H E V I a N p F P R OD . L A I l l F R A U 1 «e < PROO. A L l l i . COMR. H l f | . S O L . P E I R O L f * G a 7 E * F C I R i Cj I E GAZ FAU M I N . * J«f 1 a I IX F F R .* 1 N . » M E 1 A I X NON FER

* A l . OF C ON S I R I I C .VE RRr

c h j m i e n r p a r a t h i m i i

BASEF C N Of R I F

c o n s . r r c A .WA1. F l E C . P R O F .

E Q U I P . MFNARER Al l 1 0 H 0 R I I E

C ON S I R . N A t f A L Fi f *111 rc o i r

p o i s . m e i i p l e s PAPIERPRE S S E » F n I l I O N C ‘ O t n C H O l ' C »Pl AST P A1 IMEN1 COMMERCE R E P , COM. AU10 HO IE I S . C A F E S 1 R A NS P O R1 S P . 1 . 1 .5 E B \ f . F N 1 R E P .

S F R t f . P A R I .L O C . C . R . IMMO A S S U F A N C F S S E R V. ORG. F I N .

A V E R a G f

1 6 - ?8 7 8 - 79 79 - e n

- 1 . 1 1 - . 9 e - . p i- 1 . 1 1 - . 9 P - . e i- 1 . 1 1 - . 9 8 - • 81

- . 2 1 - . 7 0 - . 79- . 1 2 - . 2 1 - . 1 6- . 2 1 - . 6 1 - . 75

- 1 . 9 9 - 1 . 7 1 - 1 . 3 0- 1 . 9 f c - 1 . 5 9 - 1 . 16

- 1 . 3 7 - 1 . 2 6 - . 9 9- 1 . 3 7 - 1 . 2 6 - . 9 9

- . 7 . 1 ~ . 5 P - . 5 5- . 3 0 — . 5 P - . * 5

- 1 . 3 7 - 1 . 3 1 - 1 . 1 2- 1 . 1 »i - 1 . 3 9 - 1 . 1 7

— • 9<| - . 9 7 - • PO- 1 . 2 1 - 1 . ? 9 - 1 . 1 1

- . 7 1 - . 9 ? - . 8 3- 1 . 1 7 - 1 . 2 2 - 1 . C l

- . 7 1 - . 5 9 - . 1 6- 1 . 3 3 - 1 . 0 9 - . 6 5- 1 . 6 2 - 1 . 6 6 - 1 . 1 6

- * 1 1 - . 9 9 92- . 7 1 - . 5 9

- 1 . 1 7 - 1 . 20 - 1 . 0 2- 1 . 6 1 - . 5 1 1 - . 5 1

- . 9 1 - . 7 9 70- 1 . 5 8 - 1 . 1 2 - 1 . 2 1

- . 1 9 - . 5 6 - . 5 8- . 7 2 - . 7 3 - . 7 1- . 2 6 - . 3 5 - . 3 7- . 8 0 - . 6 5 - . 5 6- . 2 7 - . 3 1 - . 3 2- . 0 7 - . 2 1 - . 3 0- . 0 7 - . 2 1 - . 3 0- . ; J 7 - . ? 1 - . 3 0- . 6 3 — • 7 > - . 9 2

FORECAST F O H :

S£C 1 OR

1 * f i R I CUL 1 UR E2 S Y l v l r l J l l U R F7 PF CHE

i h o m l I f . i i r n i i r , a g r5 C OK E F * r 11 ON6 FF 1ROLF RR 117 G A 7 M A 1 UR FlP FF 1ROI E R A F F I N E9 E L E C 1 R I C I 1 E n i S l R I R I I

I I * GA ? P I S I R I R I I FI 1 E A l l F 1 CH A I F F af iE UR fl1? P I N E P a I p r f e R13 s i d e R i t i i f1 4 P ROD, P f L ♦ A f l FR15 f i n e RAI ? N 0 N F F RR FU XI f ME 1 AUX NON FFRR E'<X1 7 K l N f RAIJX f l i WFR 5I P M 1 E R . O f C O N 1 R U C 1 I O1 9 </FRKF

RE F E R E NC E 1FORECAST

1 9 7 6 I 9 7 e 1 9 7 9

1 5 2 8 5 2 . 1 6 7 1 9 2 . 1 1 ? P 9 8 .6 3 56 . 6 8 3 3 . 1 J 6 7 .3 5 8 1 . 3 5 1 3 . 3 5 5 7 .6 1 U 1 . 5 5 i n . 5 2 5 1 .1 5 7 9 .

1 l 2 t 25 V 5 ! 5 2 1 ? .2 5 5 5 1

. 1 6 5 3 . 1 P 3 P . 1 P S 4 .i i ^ e 5 3 . I u 2 f i l 3. K : 3 J 5 7 .

3 1 1 1 7 . 3 8 1 1 1 . 3 7 7 3 5 .i < ; n 2 . 1 1 5 P 7 . 1 1 6 2 3 .1 16*10. i m 5 . I 2 u e e .

1 1 1 4 . 91 9 . 81 5 .1 1 9 i| () . 1 5 5 4 3 . 4 6 2 5 ? .1 3 t i l 6 . 1 3 9 1 . , . 1 1 3 * 3 .

1 2 9 . 3 P 1 . 3 4 6 .2 2 6 1 P . 1 9 ° 4 3 . 1 ( 3 ) 1 .

2 6 5 3 , 2 P 1 < \ 2 9 1 3 .3 1 9 1 3 . 3 2 1P 1. 3 7 » 7 J .9 < l t 5 . 1 (14 e ? . 1 12 4 ‘J .

GROWTH RATFS FORI NUP. OF HOURS FFK WEEK8£>- PI 8 1 - 8 ? 8 2 -8 3-----------• _______ _ _____

71 - . 5 8 - . i e- . 7 1 - . 5 8 - . 4 8- . 7 1 - . 5 8 - . i p- . 8 0 - . 1 1- . 1 1 - . u e - . 1 *- • 7 8 - . 7 6 - . 7 2- . 9 6 - . 7 0 - . 5 2- . e i - . 5 ? - . 1 2- . i e - . 6 1 - . 5 0- 0 78 - . 6 1 - .5(1- . 5 ? - . 1 8 - . 1 5- . 5 2 - . I P - . 1 5- . 9 2 - . 71 - . 6 1- . 9 7 - . 7 9 - . 6 5- . 6 5 - . 5 2 - . 1 3- . 9 1 - . 1 8 - . 6 5- . 7 1 - . 6 5 - . 5 ?- , e ? - . 1 2 - . 5 9- • i t - . 3 6 - . 3 6- . 6 9 - . 5 9 - . 5 ?

- 1 . 2 7 - I . 0 9 - . 9 1- . P3 - . ?5 - . 6 6- . 1 7 - . 3 8 - . 3 2— . P5 - . 70 - • 5P- . 5 0 - . 1 8 - . 1 6- . 6 1 - . 5 3 - . 1 6- . 9 9 - . 7 ? - . 5 9- . 5 e - . 5 6 - . * 5 1- . < p - i 6 1 - . 6 1- , 3 P - . 3 8 - . 3 7- . 1 8 - . 1 2 - . 3 ?- . 3 2 - . 3 2 - . 3 1- • 3 3 - . 3 5 —. 3 5- . 3 3 - . 3 5 - . 3 5- . 3 3 - . 3 5 - . 3 5

- . 5 1 - . 2 5 - . 1 9

8 3 - f i 1 e s - e s

- . 1 9 - . 3 3- . 3 9 - . 3 3- . 3 9 - . 3 3- . 6 9 - . 6 5- . 0 5 - . t - 4- . f c l - . 6 2- •«! 0 - . 3 2- . 3 2 - . 2 6- . 1 1 - . 3 6

::JI- . 1 1 - . 7 e- . 5 0 - . 1 1- . 511 - . 1 5- . 3 5 - . 3 0- . 5 5 - . 1 7- . 5 3 - . 4 4- . 1 9 - . H i

- . P 2 - . 7 3- . 5 9 - . 5 3-.26 -.?«-.1*? -.11- . 1 3 - . 1 0- . 1 1 - . 3 6- . 1 1 - . 3 3- . 5 J - . 1 7- . 5 7 - . 5 3- . 3 6 - . 3 5- . 3 3 - . 3 0- . 2 9 - . 2 6- . 3 1 - . 3 3- . 3 1 - . 3 3- . 3 1 - . 3 3

- . 5 0 - . 6 9

1 9 * 0

I 7 3 1 1 3 . 7 1 1 0 . 3 5 1 3 . 5 3 5 1 .

52 «; 9 . 2 5 7 5 . 1 9 1 9 .

M 4 5 7 9 . 3 9 7 1 0 . 1 1 fcPP . 1 2 1 1 9 .

6 1 6 . l i n e . 1 1 2 1 1 .

3 5 6 .1 6 7 1 9 .

2 e 5 P . 3 1 6 2 e . 1 1 3 I f .

I 9 e i

B 7 7 9 9 7 . 7 ? 5 P . 3 5 3 1 . 1 9 3 1 . 5 ’ 2 2 . 2 5 9 . 1 . 1 9 7 2 .

1 J 6 5(i 9 « 1 0 5 1 1 . 1 2 2 1 6 . 1 2 1 1 1 .IP'I. 1 1 6 9 5 . 1 4 ? 65 .

3 1 1 . 1 P ? 2 6 .

2 P 9 8 . 3 5 3 7 1 .

11 91.Ci .

s e r i e :

1 98?

i e o 7i o .7315 . 3 1 9 ? . 1 6 1 1 . 5321 . 2 5 9 5 . 2 r 39 .

l i l 7 5 5 2 . 1 1 6 ? I • 121 HI . 1 2 6 8 7 .

4 ( / . 1 P 2 2 2 . 1 1 3 1 5 .

73 P.1 PH5? .

291 7 .3 5 9 "I p . 1 2 1 1 3 .

OUTPUT

191*3 I 9 P 1

1 P 5 2 5 1 . 7 1 1 9 . 3 1 6 1 . 1 3 1 2 . 5 3 1 7 . 2 6 0 1 . 2 f 9 3 .

1 U 8 P 7 I . 1 2 5 16 . 1 2 7 72 . 1 2 9 1 3 . ■*i ■»1 8~?i> 9 . 1 1 3 5 1 .

3 5 9 . 1 9 1 4 9 .

2 90 5 . 3 6 5 9 * . 1 2 9 u ? .

1 P 9 J I P . 7 1 1 7 . 3 1 2 9 . 3 7 9 i . 5 2 1 0 . 2 6 0 3 . 211J.

I I I 9 33 7 . 1 3 3 7 7 . I 3 C 2 5 .1 3 1 6 7 .

3 C 3 . 1 8 5 2 5 . H i PC .

3 7 9 .2 U 2 C G . 2 9 3 2 .*1 191.

1 3 3 1 2 .

1 9 8 5

1 8 9 9 1 6 . 7 1 5 1 . 3 3 9 6 . 3 7 1 5 .

M U :•1096 2f> . 11211.

1 3 ? 0 T . 1 3 3 6 3 .

7 1 2 .1 P6 75 • 13 75 1 .<1 09 .

2 16 71 . 285 3 .

3 7 6 29 . 1 3 1 5 9 .

FORECAST FOR

S£C 1 0 R

REFEFfENCE FORECAST

1 9 1 6 1 9 7 P 1 9 ? 9

2*»?12?2?2*12 526 27

?P 29 3*' 31 3?3 3 3*113536

39 4 " Ml *1? *1 3 <1445464 7 4P495f>51525354555657 5P5 0 f 61 6 263646 5666 7 66 69 7 ^ 71 7?737475767 7i e79

Pi>

f i l

P ■* H4

CH I M I F N I N E R M . F C H I H I E OUGa NIQUE p »r a c h i « i ePROni J ITS PH ARH A C f U1 | FONOERIES TRAVa I I OFS METAUX KATHTNFS AFR i COLES PACHINES O L T l L S

E OIJ IPMf NT I NnUSTR ( FL ^ A I E R I F I H I P S

h a i e r i f l n * a r h e m f n i HACHIMFS nE P IRE A t

H A l E R l FL FI ECTR TO If F P A l £ R| F t E L E f 1R0NIQU

H A I E R I F L l l e c t r o n i q u e o i j i p f h e n i h e n a g f r VEHI rUL r S AUTOHOp l LE H A I E R I F L F ER ROV I a IRE CONSTRUCTION N AV AI E CONSTR. A f RO N A i n f Q l l r IN«=1RUHENTS ET HATER VIaNrESL at 1 r 1 PROf l L i T£ l A I CONSERtfFSPAI N ET P AT I S SERIF F HOD t i l I S n u (i l! A IN CORPS GRAS A L I M E N l A I SUCRF

A l l l R E S PROn. AL IHFNTBO I S SON S E l ALCOOl 5

t a « a t s f t p r o i i .F I L S E 1 FI BRE5 AR T I F F I L S FT F I L E S PCNNE TFRIE OUVRAgF fn f i l e s

C U I RS FT PEAt lX A RT I CLE S FN C U R

c h a u s s u r f sH AHI L LE MF NTp r o d nu n o i s t'E I IRIF S

P u P I E R . CARTON PHE S?r t I M P R i H E R I E t E O PNE UM A l l QlJES

PROO. P L a S T I O I J f S I N0I1STRI FS n i VE RS FS P A T J HE Ml E l GENIE C l

RF rUPER aT ION C OMHF RTF r e p a r a t i o n AUTO.

hE fr iRs ,'f !?f% .U eIP«Siir i r a n s p f e r r o VT a r e s

t r a n s p r o u t i f h s nE h A l l ! RE s t r a n s p TERRES NAWIGA1I ON I N 1 E I M E L R IF »NSPORTS H AR 1 1 IHES

t r a n s p o r i s a e R i e n s

SER VI CF AIIX EN 1R EPR IL 0 TAT I t*N ET C REO IT - R L O ijf HE N 1

c r e o i T - b a I l i h m o u i t iE NSE IG NEHEM T (1 ARCH A

1 7 6 3 5 . 1 3 t l 7 . ? P 9 5 C . 1 9 4 4 9 . 1 5 4 e i .

5 9 9 3 4 . 1 1 9 5 G . 1 1 9 9 7 .

4 4 7 1 1 . I 7 6 6 0 . P 8 2 4 . 6 8 9 0 .

? P 7 1 5 . ? I 2 P 8 .

5 1 8 5 . 1 0 7 4 1 .

i c t P e 2 . 3 P E 5 .

1 26 o 5 . 2 L 9 5 5 . 1 1 6 1 3 . 6 9 6 2 1 . 3 7 6 8 9 .

76 91 . 1 P 9 4 0 . 3 0 6 5 5 .

5 ^ , 5 3 . 6 1 5 4 .

1 2 9 9 2 . 2 4 2 1 3 . I u 5 3 9 .

3 0 6 8 . I P 3 2 1 .

9 6 6 2 . 2 2 7 2 6 .

2 7 2 0 . 3 8 i ) 9 .

P 31 3 . 3 3 1 9 4 . 1 7 9 9 4 . 1 7 0 1 6 . 3 2 1 4 7 . 3 2 1 5 6 . 1 5 7 9 2 . 1 P5 9U . 1 7 4 5 3 .

2 2 2 3 e 8 .6 2 P 6 .

2 4 9 6 7 7 . 3 5 6 o P .

5 5 1 6 . 7 (j 1 36 . 1 9 u 2 7 . 2 1 2 2 3 . 1 1 9 f C .

6 2 : j . 1 I 2 2 P .

9 7 6 6 .

2 5 R 3 I . 121 56 6 .

1 9 1 5 ■j . 9 6 2 1 2 . 1 2 7 3 5 . 1 25 n .

18 90 9 26214 2 i ) 9 64 2 1 4 51 I 5 P P 7 6 122P 1 2 ? 0 2 1 4 45 3

4 1 7 1 1 1 6 5 8 2 1 0 ^ 2 5

5 6 6 5 2 9 5 i 7 2 9 2 2 1 61 II* 1)21 ?

l i 4 71P 2 9 4 9

1 2 I 9 P 2 8 2 1 1 1 2791 7 1 1 5 5 4 1 1 2 7 8 4 6 0

1 9 6 1 1 3 3 9 i e

549P 9 1 5 5

1 23 J7 2 5 8 5 3 9 7 2 6 2e27

1P» 2 7 9 3 4 6

2 2 2 3 2 2 3 9 8 278 7 e4«'7

3 3M99 1 8 2 9 9 1741 1 334P1 3 4 7 6 9 1 6 3 5 4 1 9741 1 »P65

2 3 5 7 6 1662e2 5 9 2 2 7

3 1 7 6 2 5 7 5 4

7 2 1 1 9 2 ) 1 2 3 2 5 2 I t ' 1 P 9 2 I

6 4 6 I 1P! j 2 1 1 U6 54 2 1 1 3 2 9 9 6 9

1 2 2 4 6 6 2 1 1'. 2 r esfp1 2 12 41 4 6 6 H

1 9 3 5 7 .2 1 2 4 C . 2 2 9 7 J .

2 2 l i e .1 6 2 6 7 .

6 20 16 . 1 2 6 6 4 . 1 4 9 9 6 . 5 C 2 5 6 . 1 7 5 7 5 . 11 2 1 1 .

6«)l i 2 .3 1 5 1 2 . 2 9 6 3 6 .

6 9 ( 1 . 1 J 9 4 6 .

i r i 5 < c . 2 K 2 *

1 3 2 5 7 . 3 C 8 4 5 . 1 2 6 1 9 . 7 7 2 f 0 . 4 3 0 4 2 .

e ? f e .1 9 9 2 J . 24 9 9 7 . 5 I 12. 9 6 4 1 .

1 2 6 5 2 . 2 6 2 7 5 .1 C 1 1 2 a

2 16 5 . 1 1 4 P i . 1 U J 4 0 . 2 2 5 2 6 .

2 4 6 3 . 3 9 5 6 . C9P2 .

2 1 7 8 U . 1 5 1 2 7 .1 8 3i i 5 . 2 4 9 12 . 2 5 6 3 9 . I t 71 B.

2 1 9 6 5 . 1 S 2 2 4 .

2 4 1 J2 1 . 6 1 2 6 .

2 7 2 3 5 2 . 2 1 7 8 7 .

iU H :? t 5 6 2 .2 6 £ 16 . 1 S4 29 .

6 6 2 . i i eq p .

1 1 5 5 2 . 4 3 1 7 4 . 41 35 J .

I 2 f 1 4 5 . 2 2 1 4 f .

1 1 J ? 7 6 . 1 4? < e . 1 5 V 6 P .

1 9 6 02. 3 6 5 1 3 . 2 2 5 7 1 . 2 3 5 0 1 . 1 6 1 5 1 . 63501 . 1 3U56. I 4 6 19 . 5 1215 . 1P61Q. 12 3 8 6 .

5 750. 1 3 0 6 4 . 2 7 6 20 .

1 2 3 2 . 1 1 7 67 .

1094 4 5 . 2543 .

1 274 5. 3 2 6 4 2 . 1 3 2 14 . 72931 . 4 2 6 6 6 . 6665 .

2l)DfcO. 3 5 4 2 ? . 5674 . 9 7 4 0 .

13e«6 . 2 6 9 15 . I f i l l P ,

27 13, i e 5 6 6 .

950 3. 2 3 6 2 3 . 2*165 . 3 9 7 4 . e 9 i e .

3 4 3 2 9 . 193 5 5 . 1 6 6 6 2 . 354 1 3 . 3 6 2 69 . 1 7 0 4 1 . 21 0 1 . 19026 .

2 4 5 2 4 4 .6 6 5 5 .

2 7 6 1 9 6 .2 9 3 1 5 .

5 P69. 74641 . 2 1 6 * 4 . 264 54 . 19569 .

67 6. 1 2t i f iP. 1 1 7 79 . 4 26 66 . 4 22 27 .

14 c 5 413 . 22613 .

I 1 3 9 6 * . 14564 . 1 5 7 17 .

19P0

2 0 0 3 6 .3 9 9 5 5 .

mt:1 7 1 1 4 .6 4 1 0 5 . 1 3 4 3 2 . 1 4 6 0 6 .

5 2 3 6 3 . 1 9 7 7 1 . 1 3 7 C 3 .

5 5 2 0 . 3 5 1 2 6 . 2 5 9 2 0 .

7 5 4 3 . 126 >2 3 .

1 1 2 4 6 3 . 2 3 4 2 .

1 4 1 6 7 . 3 4 0 6 5 . 1 3 7 3 6 . 7 3 6 8 L ' . 4 5 1 2 9 .

9 0 6 6 . 2 ) 2 0 4 . 3 6 3 4 3 .

61 1 4 . 1J 0 P 6 . 1 4 2 0 9 . 2 7 5 3 4 . 1 0 5 < i e .

2 5 6 6 .> 6 7 6 2 .

9 1 2 2 . 2 3 P 1 6 .

2 5 4 6 . 4 0 5 5 . 9 1 7 7 .

3 5 4 9 5 . ! 9 e 0 9 . 1 9 3 6 6 . 3 6 3 2 9 . 371 5 6 .1 7 4 0 5 . 2 1 P 2 3 . 1 9 0 2 3 .

24 7 7 5 2 .6 9 2 5 .

2 8 7 4 5 9 . 4*11 70 .

5P93 . 7 6 04 2 . 21 3 0 4 .2 70es. 1 9 P C P .

6 9 2 .1 2 1 9 0 .1 2 1 6 3 .

4 3 l l l : 144f»96 .

23225: . 1 1 P5P / . 1 4 9 5 3 . 1 6 ? 1 7 .

1 9 e i 1 9 8 2

2 0 4 4 9 . 4 2 4 7 9 .

l l i i l :1 7 41 ) 7 . 6 3 9 3 2 .1369P•1 4 921 . 5 3 5 P 9 . 21020. 1 5 4 4 2 .

5632.3 71 5 7 . 2 5 0 7 2 .

P2 4 7 .1 4 0 3 7 . 1142 0) .

21 2P .1 4 * P 5 . 3 6 1 1 9 . 1 4 1 7 8 . 7 4 2 9 9 .4 6 P 5 U .

93 31 .2 0 4 4 7 . 3IV95.

6 1 1 4 . 1 0 4 4 4 . 1 4 4 9 7 . ? P O | l i . 1 0 7 71 a

2 61 6 . 1 P P 9 I .

e 4 i 9 . 2 3 P 1 6 .

2 5 6 P . 4 1 2 4 . 9 7 6 9 .

3 6 4 6 6 . 2 0 1 4 6 . 20222.2 7* 66 .3 7 7 1 0 .1 7 6 4 5 . 2 2 4 75 . 1 8 9 6 3 .

2 4 8 4 1 4 . ?»* 72 .

249r ^ J :

7 ^ ' :

m t : 2* 2 12 .71 e .

1 2 5 9 1 . 1 25P« . 449e5. 4 4 4 1 7 .

1 4 6 P 2 4 . 2 3 P 2 6 .

1 2 0 P 6 9 .1 6 73M .

1 6 6 6 5 .

s e r i f : OUTPUT

1 9f l 3 | 9 P 4

2 1 0 1 9 . 4 5 7 2 3 . 3 P 3 P 1 . 2 6 8 4 1 . 1 7 7 5 8 . 6 3 6 8 3 . 1 4 0 5 2 . I 5 f »83 . 5501-7 . 2 2 4 3 P . 1 7 2 2 4 .

5 4 1 2 . 3 9 1 9 9 . 23P91 .

e 9 5 9 . 1 5 4 3 5 .

1 1 6 3 5 6 . 1 9 9 1 .

1 5331 . 3 7 9 4 0 . 1 4 9 6 2 . 74P46 . 4 P 3 4 2 .

95 7 P . 2 0 6 5 6 . 3 1 9 7 9 .

64 1 2 . 1 U 720 . 1 4 7 6 9 . 2 8 4 6 3 . 1 1 0 5 3 .

25 96 • 1 8 9 61 .

7774 . 2 3 P 1 3 .

2 5 1 5 . 4 1 6 2 .

1 3 1 3 7 . 3 7 4 3 9 .2 ti 4 7 4 0 2 0 P 5 6 .26 9<| t . 3P2G4 . 1 7P27 . 23 0P6 . l e 5 9 1 .

2 5 0 6 8 4 . 7 2 4 8 .

5 9 9 3 . 775 74 . 2 1 9 5 6 . 2 8 1 4 8 . 204P 7 .

723 . 1 26 2 ) . 1 2 9 1 9 . 4 5 4 3 1 . 4 5 4 6 ? .

14931 1 . 2 4 4 2 2 .

1 2 3 P 7 2 . 156 99 .1 I f . H 4 .

2 1 4 2 3 . 4 8 8 1 3 . 3 9 7 3 6 • 2 7 6 ? 2 . 1 7P69 . 6 2 2 6 9 .

U I H :5 5 2 6 2 . 23 71 1 . 1 P 94 2 .

4 8 5 2 . 4 0 9 C 6 . 2151 7 .

9 6 1 2 . 1 6 9 3 7 .

1 1 7 6 1 4 . 1 P 5 C .

1 581 7 . 3 9 t s r . . 1 5 6 6 6 . 7 5 2 7 6 . 4 961 5 .

9 P C 2 . 2jtf6 8. 1 P 6 4 e .

6 4 7 2 . 1 0 8 9 1 . 1 4 9 8 ? . 2 6 7 4 2 . 1 12 56 .

24 7 J . 1 8 9 1 9 .

7263 . 2371 6 .

2 5 6 9 . 41 9 8 .

1 c 5 5 C . 3 8 3 5 5 .2 u 7C 2 . 21 461 . 3 6 5 2 1 .3 8 4 9 7 .17 p 2 .?36 35 . 1 79 46 .

2 5 2 1 3 5 .7 2 2 9 .

3 1 1 3 9 2 . 4 2 2PP .

6J1 4 . 78 ? P 1 . 2 2 2 3 ? . 2P2P6 . ? l 7 ? 6 .

731 o 1 23 71 . 1 2 1 C 6 ■x m i :

1 5 L 4 34 . 2 4H 7P .

I 2 7;»56 . 1 5 9 6 8 . 1 7 ! 7 4 .

2 17 1 3 .51 6 6 9 . 4 0 J 9 1 . 2 8 5 e P . 1 8 1 5 5 .

6 0 7 1 6 . 146 U . 146 74 .

£ 5 7 9 3 * 2 5 14 0 . 20 1 8 2 .

4 ? 98 .4 ?6 16 . 1 8 2 2 9 . 1 0 ? 1 5 . 1 67 4 2 .

118 7 66 . 1 P 0 5 .

1 6 4 5 3 . 3 9 8 4 4 . 1 6 3 8 1 . 7 5 6 0 9 .5 0 5 6 5 . 1 0 0 1 4 • 2 1 07 2 . 3 6 9 6 6 •

6 4 1 1 . 1 0 9 2 3 . 1 5 1 4 1 . 2 9 0 5 1 .1 1 4 4 8 .

? 2 8 3 .18 P 0 2 . 66 10. 2 3 5 5 2 .

? 5 1 7 . 4 164 •

1 0 6 7 5 . 3 8 1 5 ? . 2 0 P 4 0 .2 2 1 0 3 . 3 5 P 8 5 . 3 8 6 7 1 . 1784 3 .

2 3 6 4 9 . 1 6 9 1 5 .

2 5 4 7 3 2 .7 ? T 7 •

3 Ifce 20. 4 2 9 4 4 . 6119.

l e e o o . 221 Ot. 2 8 5 ? 6 . ? 0 9 e 6 .

74 0 * 1 ?3 9 9 •

13 ?P 7 .

s n ? ? :1 5 \ 0 1 5 .

2 5 ?6 6 . 12 99 05 * 16 193.

1764 9 .

1 98 5

f o r e c a s t f o r :

s e c TOR

P 5 S»N1E86 A U l f i ; S SERVI CES M ARCP 7 a SSUf a NCF S8P F I N AN c r

101 AL

R EF E R EN C E FORECAST

1 9 7 6 1 9 78 1 9 1 9— — — — ————

9 3 9 9 9 . 1 0 8 8 1 5 . 1 1 1 5 5 3 .3 8 9 4 9 . 4 2 4 3 2 . 4 3 1 9 9 .1 7 4 3 1 . 21 7 6 0 . 2 4 I f 9 .64 7 5 5 . 1 8 7 3 8 . 7 1 6 2 S .

2 6 6 3 3 9 3 . 2 8 2 9 4 8 4 . 2 9 2 1 5 9 0 .

FORECAST FOR

SECTORR E F E R E N C E FORECAST

7 6 - 7 8 I P - 1 9 n - e t

12•»456 1 P 910

1 1 1?13141516 I 1 I *1 9 ?«' 21 22 2 7242 5262 1 ?P2 9 2'» 3 ) 3? 2 j3035

3 6373839

<114?47444546 4 7 4 P 4 9 5-1

AG P I C U L TURF SYL VJCUL H I R E

P t r MLJH0!lj 1 I E .ll PN! IF,COKLF ACT I ON FE TROl F PR L I

AnnJFF G a7 NaIURfLJpf 1R0I f P A F F i n E E L E c I R I c M e O i S T R j p U GA? M S l & t P U E E Al l E 1 CHAUFF AGE URB H I N E R a I f l F FER S I O E R U G I E

P ROD. pE I * A C l E «F I NE RAI S NON F E R R F U X

t t F 1 AUX NON FERREUX F I ME R A UX 01 VERS

F A 1E R . OF C O N I R U P T I O VF R RF

C r i l M l E F I N e R aL E

P R O D l i n s P H A R F A C E U T I FGNOE R l E S t r a v a i l d e s m e t a i i x

o a r sE 0 III PP»FN1 P a t e r i f l F * TE WI EL FacHINfSr j u i t iF A1ERI EL

I N O L S I R I E LH I P Sn • a r m e m f n iQE PURE Al l F l E C m I Q l l E fL r c l KON iOII t L ECTRON IOU

F A l E R i E t F E R R O v I A I R E C ON ST R l l f T I O N N AVAl F C 0 N S 1 R . A E R O N A D I i q I e INSTRUMENTS ET MAlERV I A N n f ?

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Appendix TabLe

16 Results

of the

Alternate Forecast

F0 R F C A S 1 FOP SO i r c . 1 av m i f v j o p j

sec l up

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p i p p

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F 0 R F C A S 1 FOR

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h o i i i i i r *1 IrN Il f * * n r ,C C HEF A C 1 ! ON P E l t f O L F RAFFTNF

FI F c i r i c l I F III S I R m u ra7 nisiPiRiir F Al l F 1 OIAL'FF AGF IRRp r o p , n r l ' A n frPF 1 A | v m o m f e r r e u x

n i f j r P A i i x m v F R S p a i e r . o f r o M R u r i ro

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19

5

Name: P a tr ic k Jean H enaff.

Permanent address: 4900 B a tte ry Lane Apt 111

Bethesda, Md 20014

Degree and Date con fe rre d : M .A., 1980-

Date o f B ir th : Ju ly 26, 1953.

Place o f B ir th : C lam art, France-

Secondary educa tion : Ecole M i l i t a i r e P re p a ra to ire , Autun, France, 1971.

C o lle g ia te in s t i tu t io n s attended Dates Degree

( Ecole Sa inte Genevieve 1971-73 N/A

Ecole des Hautes Etudes 1973-76 Diplfcme

Commercial's

U n iv e rs ity o f Maryland 1978-80 M.A.

M ajor: Applied Mathematics-

M inor: Economics.

P o s itio n s he ld : In g e n ie u r, Centre d 'Autom ation pour le Management,

P a ris , France, 1978.

Facu lty research a s s is ta n t. U n iv e rs ity o f M aryland,

College Park, M aryland, 1980-.

CURRICULUM VITAE

Date o f Degree

1976

1980