An Information Age Combat Model Research Update Copyright 2000-2003, Alidade Consulting, All Rights...
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Transcript of An Information Age Combat Model Research Update Copyright 2000-2003, Alidade Consulting, All Rights...
An Information Age Combat Model
Research Update
Copyright 2000-2003, Alidade Consulting, All Rights Reserved
Jeff CaresAlidade Incorporated
Search Theory Workshop3 Sep 2003
ALIDADEINCORPORATED
ALIDADEINCORPORATED
Copyright 2000-2003, Alidade Consulting, All Rights Reserved
Simplistic Physical ModelInformation Age Warfare
Information Backplane
Targets
Sensor Grid
Weapons Grid
Trivializes space, time, tactics, etc. … that is: arrangements
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Search Theory and an Information Age Combat Model
How can we make progress without a value proposition?
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Combat Theory Developments
Plus Keith Ho:Parametric Analysis
Combat Entropy (alternative calculations)Integer Effects
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Insights• Homogenous Almost Completely Specified• Hetrogenous is Next Horizon
– Shannon Entropies of , are potential candidates for NCW MOEs
– As i, j get large• system could be better modeled with NKCS
(Search Theory track) – As i, j get very large
• system becomes atomistic and might be better modeled with ABM (Illachinski, Project Albert track)
Dr. Brian McCue: “Search Theory, Invented Now”May ’02 Conference
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What is a Military Force?
D
I
S
T
Simplest Network:Passive Target (T),Autonomous Sensor (S),Simple Decider (D),Autonomous Influence (I)
Model with all features has 36 dimensions!
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S S
I
D DTT
I
Two-Sided Simple Combat
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T T
S
D
I
S
D
I
A Warfare Network
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T
T
S
D
I
S
D
I
T T
S
D I S
D
I
101
11111111
11 111
111
11
11111111
11111
111
00
000
00000
000000
000
00000
000
row maps directionally to column = 1, 0 otherwise
Adjacency Matrix
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Control Cycles (8)
• SX SX DX SX
– Controlling own sensor arrangements
• TX SX DX TX – Controlling own target arrangements
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Catalytic Control Cycles (50)
• SX SX DX SX
TX TX– Controlling own sensor arrangements based on
own own target arrangements• IX SX DX IX SX
SX,TX SX,TX– Controlling own influencer arrangements based
on own sensor and target arrangements
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Competitive Catalytic Cycles (4950)
• DX,IX,TX SX DX DX,IX,TX SX SY SY
– controlling own decision maker, influencer and target arrangements based on the opposition’s sensor arrangements
• DX,IX,TX SX DX DX,IX,TX SX SY,SX,IY
SY,SX,IY – controlling own decision maker, influencer and target arrangements
based on the opposition’s sensor arrangements, opposition influencer arrangements and own-force sensor arrangements
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Combat Cycles (12)
• TY SX DX IX TY
– Influencing opposition targets
• DY,TY SX DX IX DY,TY
– Influencing opposition targets and decision makers
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Implications
• Distributed, Networked combat highly catalytic– Perhaps auto-catalytic
• Most effort is control rather than combat
• Very high dimensional competition– Not all events fully controlled by
any one side
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Next Steps
• Choice of Mathematical Formalism– Hypercycle Theory– Statistical Mechanics
• Meyers, Brown: “Statistical Mechanics of Voting”
– Fitness Landscapes• NKCS with skew distributions
– Others?• Phase II
– Toy Model Simulation
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Proposed Metrics• Number
– Links, nodes• Link:Node Ratio• Degree Distribution (scale)• Clustering Coefficient• Characteristic Path Length• Correlation Coefficient• Signal Strength• Groupings• Mean Chain Length• Average Branching Ratio• Radius• # Steps to Local Optima ( Ln N)
– N.B. Red King, Red Queen• Topological Entropy
– Defines difference between rulesets
• Search time (say, to find a part)
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Beyond Physical Models…
Information Age Warfare(Domains)
Information Age Warfare(Domains)
“Physical”
platforms, fuel,weapons, etc.
“Physical”
platforms, fuel,weapons, etc.
Information
exformation,entropy,
fusion, etc.
Information
exformation,entropy,
fusion, etc.
IT
computers,bandwidth,packets, etc.
IT
computers,bandwidth,packets, etc.
Cognitive
understanding,pattern-matching,perspective, etc.
Cognitive
understanding,pattern-matching,perspective, etc.
Most folks are looking only here for NCW/RMA Solutions
Military Operations are Difficult because of these Domains
The payoff from a transformation will be found here
PhysicalPhysical InformationInformation CognitiveCognitive
…But including physical models
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Questions?