An Australian gold miner - for global investors · 4 37% 42% 43% 39% 25% 31% 18% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30%...

15
An Australian gold miner - for global investors 1H FY2019 Financial Results - February 2019

Transcript of An Australian gold miner - for global investors · 4 37% 42% 43% 39% 25% 31% 18% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30%...

Page 1: An Australian gold miner - for global investors · 4 37% 42% 43% 39% 25% 31% 18% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1H16 2H16 1H17 2H17 1H18 2H18 1H19 Average Annualised Return on Equity Average

An Australian gold miner -for global investors

1H FY2019 Financial Results -February 2019

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2

Resources & Reserves, Forward Looking Statement and Notes to Financial Overview TableMineral Resources and Ore Reserves

The Mineral Resources information in this presentation is extracted from the reports entitled “Reserve and

Resource Update and Corporate Outlook” dated 2 August 2018, and “Pogo JORC Resource” dated 16 October

2018, both available at www.nsrltd.com and www.asx.com. Northern Star confirms that it is not aware of any new

information or data that materially affects the information included in the original market announcement and, in the

case of Mineral Resources, that all material assumptions and technical parameters underpinning the estimates in

the relevant market announcement continue to apply and have not materially changed. Northern Star confirms

that the form and context in which the Competent Person’s findings are presented have not been materially

modified from the original market announcement.

The Ore Reserves information in this presentation is extracted from the report entitled “Reserve and Resource

Update and Corporate Outlook” dated 2 August 2018, available at www.nsrltd.com and www.asx.com. Northern

Star confirms that it is not aware of any new information or data that materially affects the information included in

the original market announcement and, in the case of Ore Reserves, that all material assumptions and technical

parameters underpinning the estimates in the relevant market announcement continue to apply and have not

materially changed. Northern Star confirms that the form and context in which the Competent Person’s findings

are presented have not been materially modified from the original market announcement.

No reserves are disclosed in this presentation in relation to the Pogo operations. Information on Pogo reserves is

included in the ASX announcement entitled “Northern Star acquires Pogo Gold Mine in Alaska” dated 30 August

2018. The reserves are estimated as at 31 December 2017 and according to the Canadian NI 43-101 standards,

but are not fully compliant with those standards. Accordingly, they do not purport to be JORC Code compliant. A

cautionary statement in respect of such resources and reserves appears in the ASX announcement dated 30

August 2018.

Forward Looking Statements

Northern Star Resources Limited has prepared this announcement based on information available to it. No

representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness

of the information, opinions and conclusions contained in this announcement. To the maximum extent permitted

by law, none of Northern Star Resources Limited, its directors, employees or agents, advisers, nor any other

person accepts any liability, including, without limitation, any liability arising from fault or negligence on the part of

any of them or any other person, for any loss arising from the use of this announcement or its contents or

otherwise arising in connection with it.

This announcement is not an offer, invitation, solicitation or other recommendation with respect to the subscription

for, purchase or sale of any security, and neither this announcement nor anything in it shall form the basis of any

contract or commitment whatsoever. This announcement may contain forward looking statements that are subject

to risk factors associated with gold exploration, mining and production businesses. It is believed that the

expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable but they may be affected by a variety of variables and

changes in underlying assumptions which could cause actual results or trends to differ materially, including but

not limited to price fluctuations, actual demand, currency fluctuations, drilling and production results, Resource

and Reserve estimations, loss of market, industry competition, environmental risks, physical risks, legislative,

fiscal and regulatory changes, economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions, political

risks, project delay or advancement, approvals and cost estimates.

Footnotes to Financial Overview Table (Slide 7)

(1) Unless otherwise stated, the metrics for the period ended 31 December 2018 as presented in the Financial

Overview Table are inclusive of the December 18 quarter results of Pogo operations only.

(2) EBITDA is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation and impairment and is calculated as

follows: 31 Dec 18 - Profit before Income tax ($113.6 million) plus depreciation ($33.6 million), amortisation

($70.3 million), impairment ($2.0 million) and finance costs ($5.2 million) less interest income ($2.9 million). 31

Dec 17 - Profit before Income tax ($111.4 million) plus depreciation ($28.2 million), amortisation ($62.7 million),

impairment ($1.9 million) and finance costs ($1.4 million) less interest income ($3.9 million).

(3) Underlying net profit is calculated as follows: 31 Dec 18 - Net profit ($82.1 million) plus acquisition and

integration costs ($10.0 million), less tax effect ($3.0 million). 31 Dec 17 - Net profit ($79.1 million) plus

acquisition and integration costs ($1.5 million), less tax effect ($0.4 million).

(4) Underlying Free Cash Flow is calculated as follows: 31 Dec 18 - free cash flow (-$349.0 million), plus net

payment to acquire business ($350.5 million), plus stamp duty ($1.2 million), plus payment for

investments ($5.2 million), payment to Tanami Gold NL for exercise of put option ($20.0 million), plus FY18 tax

($2.7 million), plus loan to Venturex Resources Ltd ($1.0 million), plus bullion awaiting settlement ($5.2 million),

plus working capital adjustment ($4.9 million). 31 Dec 2017 - free cash flow ($0.7 million) plus financial assets

at fair value through OCI ($26.0 million), plus M&A ($4.0 million), plus FY17 tax ($35.2 million), plus working

capital adjustment ($7.7 million), less bullion awaiting settlement ($12.5 million).

(5) Gold mined, Gold sold & AISC/oz presented are inclusive of September 18 quarter and December 18 quarter

results of Pogo operations

EBITDA, underlying net profit, underlying free cash flow and All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) are unaudited non

IFRS measures.

*All currency conversions in this document were converted at a spot conversion rate of USD/AUD of $0.7286

† GDX 5Yr Average is sourced from Bloomberg all erroneous data points have been removed and companies that

have impaired over > $300m off their balance sheets

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1H FY2019 – Key Financial Highlights

Underlying net profit

of A$89.1M up 11%

on pcp

Cash flow from

operating activities up

33% to A$169M on

pcp

Interim dividend up

33% from pcp to A6¢

(fully-franked)

EBITDA of A$221.8M

up 10% on pcp

18% Return on Equity

and 14% Return on

Invested Capital

Strong Balance

Sheet; Cash, Bullion

& Investments of

A$292M and no debt

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37%42% 43%

39%

25%31%

18%

2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1H16 2H16 1H17 2H17 1H18 2H18 1H19

Average Annualised Return on Equity

Average Annualised ROE (excluding Pogo)

NST continues to generate favourable ROE and ROIC

▪ For the past five years NST has delivered an average annualised Return on Equity (ROE) of 34% versus the GDX sector average of -2.9%

▪ In 1H19 NST delivered an annualised ROE of 18% and 20% exclusive of the Pogo acquisition

▪ 1H19 includes the acquisition and integration of Pogo that provides a platform for profitable growth at sector leading rates of return as the Pogo operation is optimised

▪ NST’s Australian operations have generated a 42% annualised ROE in 1H19

▪ Capital is forced to compete internally for project funding to ensure NST continues to generate sector leading returns

GDX Sector 5yr Average -2.9%†

2% Pogo acquisition

effect on 1H19

NST 5yr Average 34%

52%

42%

-1%-10%

15%

40%

65%

Australian Ops Pogo

Segment ROE

Dec-17 Dec-18

Investment into Pogo will add a

meaningful contribution to group

ROE as the operation is optimised

over coming quarters

Sector leading ROE

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Value Creation – delivering returns to Shareholders▪ NST’s strategy of balancing organic growth with well executed M&A has generated over A$5.7B

of value for Shareholders since the first acquisition in 2010 and <10% of this value uplift has been from equity raised

▪ This strategy has been achieved through operational excellence, investing heavily into exploration, growing production, optimising assets and financially disciplined inorganic growth; NST has returned 61% of all equity capital raised in the form dividends to its Shareholders

$10

$5,909

$468

$5,718

$287

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

Starting Market Cap(30/6/10)

Equity Issued DividendPaid/Declared

Value Add Current Market Cap31/12/18

A$M

Over A$5.7B of value added through

executing organic and inorganic growth

and 61% of all equity capital raised

returned to Shareholders in dividends

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Acquiring a world class asset and a significant capital investment into the Australian Operations in 1H19

▪ Whilst acquiring the world class Pogo Operation in 1H19 for A$351M, NST has also invested heavily into organic growth with an additional A$36M investment into its Australian Operations in 1H19 vs the pcp in exploration and expansionary capital

▪ Despite significant investment and growing dividends to Shareholders, balance sheet strength maintained with sufficient liquidity (including undrawn financing facilities) to take advantage of future opportunities and to deliver further sector leading returns

61

42

34 50

22

52

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1H18 1H19

A$(m

)

FCF vs Growth Capex Spend

Underlying Free Cashflow Non-Sustaining Capex Exploration

A$46M increased investment in 1H19 to

generate future sector leading returns

433

292

278

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1H18 1H19A

$(m

)

Cash, Bullion & Investments

Cash Used for Growth Investment Cash, Bullion & Investments

NST has invested over A$278M of operating cash

flows in 1H19 on future growth

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1H FY2019 - Financial Overview Table

A$’000Half Year End

31 Dec 2018(1)

Half Year End

31 Dec 2017

$’000

Change

%

Change

Revenue 633,515 443,696 189,819 43

EBITDA(2) 221,795 201,738 20,057 10

Net profit 82,090 79,090 3,000 4

Underlying net profit(3) 89,101 80,168 8,933 11

Cash flow from operating activities 169,134 126,787 42,347 33

Cash flow used in investing activities (518,099) (126,067) (392,032) 311

Sustaining capital (60,822) (41,139) (19,683) 48

Non sustaining capital (50,164) (33,982) (16,182) 48

Exploration (52,414) (21,804) (30,610) 140

Payments for investments (5,163) (26,007) 20,844 (80)

Acquisition of businesses/assets (350,550) (4,000) (346,550) 8,664

Other investing 1,014 865 149 17

Underlying free cash flow(4) 41,724 61,098 (19,374) (32)

Average gold price per ounce (A$) 1,700 1,678 22 1

Gold mined (ounces)(5) 453,883 293,990 159,893 54

Gold sold (ounces)(5) 423,243 267,278 155,965 58

All-in sustaining costs (AISC) per ounce sold (A$)(5) 1,295 1,043 252 24

Cash and cash equivalents 229,825 368,054 (138,229) (38)

Earnings per share (cents) 13.0 13.1 (0.1) (1)

▪ Cash flow from operating activities grew 33% and underlying net profit by 11% in 1H19

Refer to footnotes for Financial Overview Table on slide 2.

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$25

$62

$148$166

$181

$216 $219$232

$202

$241

$222

50

100

150

200

250

300

1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16 2H16 1H17 2H17 1H18 2H18 1H19

A$ (

m)

EBITDA

1H FY2019 Highlights▪ Underlying NPAT of A$89M was up 11% on the pcp; statutory NPAT of A$82M up 4% on pcp

▪ Group EBITDA of A$222M grew 10% against pcp of A$202M

▪ Group EBITDA margin excluding Pogo and integration costs was 41%

$8$14

$36

$56$65

$86

$105$111

$79

$115

$82

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16 2H16 1H17 2H17 1H18 2H18 1H19

A$(m

)

Net Profit After Tax

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Financial Highlights for 1H FY2019▪ EPS of A13cps in 1H19, on an underlying

basis EPS is up 6% to A14.1cps (excluding acquisition & integration costs)

▪ Dividend up: interim dividend up 33% to A6cps fully franked in line with 6% of revenue

▪ Since 2014 NST has been able to consistently grow earnings and payouts to Shareholders while continuing to invest in the future

1.8 3.0

6.1

9.4 10.8

14.4

17.4 18.4

13.1

19.0

13.0

0

5

10

15

20

1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16 2H16 1H17 2H17 1H18 2H18 1H19

A$cp

s

EPS

EPS Acquisition and Integration

14.11.1

$15 $25 $31$46

$58$76

$94

$136$154

$190$217

$287

$38

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2H13 1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16 2H16 1H17 2H17 1H18 2H18 1H19

A$(m

)

Cumulative Dividend Paid/Declared

Dividend Paid Dividend Declared

2.5

1.0

2.5 2.0

3.0 3.0 4.0 3.0

6.0

4.5 5.0

3.0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16 2H16 1H17 2H17 1H18 2H18 1H19

A$cp

s

Dividend Per Share

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Strong EBITDA and operating cash flow maintained▪ Jundee and Kalgoorlie Operations continue to produce strong EBITDA margins of 51% and

40% respectively

▪ Pogo integration began in Q2 with work commencing to rationalise costs and optimise operations

▪ Solid cash generation helps fund strategic growth opportunities. 33% growth in group operating cash flows of A$169M up compared to pcp of A$127M

$127

$169

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1H18 1H19A

$(m

)

Group Operating Cash Flow

Up 33% in 1H19

58%

46%51%

40%

11%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Jundee Kal Ops Pogo

Segment EBITDA Margin

Dec-17 Dec-18

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Another leg of growth added to the portfolio in 1H19▪ NST generated A$41.7M in underlying free cash flow and invested over A$370M in 1H19 to

provide the next level of value creation in the portfolio

▪ NST also paid out A$32M to Shareholders in dividends in 1H19

-220.2

41.2

174.9

5.8 17.432.0

370.6 7.8 2.7

-400

-350

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

50

YTD Cash,Bullion & Inv

Movement

Working Capital Investments Dividends paid Proceeds fromshare issue

M&A Borrowings FY18 Tax Paid Underlying FreeCashflow

A$(m

)

NST’s investment into the world class Pogo operation will provide the

next leg of organic growth to continue to deliver sector leading returns

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Growing cash generation, balance sheet flexibility▪ One of the key differentiators of the NST business is its balance sheet; this strength has

allowed for counter cyclical acquisitions and sector leading returns to Shareholders

▪ NST currently has a sector leading balance sheet to fund opportunistic organic or inorganic growth opportunities

▪ The business has available liquid resources of A$613M at 31 December 2018

▪ Focus on risk management through gold price hedging

1,700

1,710

1,720

1,730

1,740

1,750

1,760

1,770

1,780

1,790

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Dec-20

AU

D G

old

Pri

ce

ko

z

Hedge Profile

Hedge Ounces Hedge Price Average Hedge Price

Cash Bullion & Investments

A$292M

Undrawn Standby Debt

Facility A$200M

Ore Stockpiles &

GIC A$121M

Total Liquidity as at 31 December 2018

Total

Funding

Capacity

A$613M

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Gold production and sales up▪ Gold sold of 423koz in 1H19; an increase of 58% on pcp

▪ Group AISC of A$1,295/oz in 1H19

▪ Jundee: Gold sold of 142koz up 4% on pcp at AISC of A$978/oz (US$713*/oz)

▪ Kalgoorlie Operations: Gold sold of 164koz up 53% at AISC of A$1,363/oz (US$993*/oz)

▪ Pogo: Gold sold 117koz (from 1 July) at AISC of A$1,586/oz (US$1,156*/oz)

137

107

142

164

117

Jundee Kal Ops Pogo

Gold Sold (koz)

Dec-17 Dec-18

$1,120

$978 $968$1,007

$972$930

$1,076

$962

$1,043 $1,048

$1,295

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16 2H16 1H17 2H17 1H18 2H18 1H19

(A$ A

ISC

/oz)

(Ko

z)

Group Production and AISC

Paulsens Kalgoorlie Jundee Pogo Plutonic AISC

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Delivering Reserve and Resource Growth per share▪ Through value accretive organic and inorganic growth NST has been able to successfully grow

Resource and Reserve life on a per share basis for its Shareholders

▪ In 1H19 NST announced an updated JORC Group Resource including the Pogo operations with a maiden Reserve due with the Group annual Resource and Reserve statement in mid-year 2019

1.4Mozs2.2Mozs

6.2Mozs

9Mozs

9.2Mozs

10.2Mozs

15.9Mozs

20.5Mozs

.257Mozs

1.2Mozs

1.5Mozs

2Mozs

3.5Mozs

4Mozs 4Mozs

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

MY 12 MY 13 MY 14 MY 15 MY 16 MY 17 MY 18 PogoAddition

'00

0 O

un

ces

'00

0 O

un

ces

NST Resource and Reserve Growth

Measured Indicated Inferred Reserves

0.1

0.6

1.72.1

2.1 2.2

2.73.0

0.91.4

3.74.0

4.3

5.15.2 5.1

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

MY 12 MY 13 MY 14 MY 15 MY 16 MY 17 MY18 PogoAddition

Tim

es

(x)

Resource & Reserve Growth per share

Cumulative Increase Resources Per Share Cumulative Increase Reserves Per Share

NST has grown Resources and

Reserves on a per share basis over the

last 7 years

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Northern Star Resources LimitedASX Code: NST

An Australian mid cap gold miner – for global investors

Investor Enquiries:

Luke Gleeson, Investor Relations

Level 1, 388 Hay Street, Subiaco 6008 Western Australia

T: +61 8 6188 2100

E: [email protected]

W: www.nsrltd.com