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An assessment of the impact of climate change on the megacities of India and of the

current policies and strategies to meet associated challenges

K. Shadananan NairNansen Environmental Research Centre (India)

India is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change:

Huge, fast growing population, millions below poverty line7500-km long densely populated low-lying coastlineThree megacities and number of growing cities in the coastal zoneEconomy closely tied to climate sensitive natural resource base

Model studies of IITM:•Significant rise in temperatures until the end of the century

Joint study of the British department for environment food andJoint study of the British department for environment, food and rural affairs, and the Indian ministry of environment and forests:•Temperatures in India will increase by 3 to 4 Degrees C towards the

end of the 21st century and the monsoon rains will increase by 10 to 30 per cent

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DelhiArea: 1 484 Sq Km

Mumabi (Bombay)Area: 603 Sq. Km (Metro: 4355 Sq.

Area: 1,484 Sq. KmPop:12 Mn (2007) (Metro: 16 Mn)Pop. density: 11,463 / Sq. Km

Km)Pop: 14 Mn (2008) (Metro: 21 Mn)Pop. density: 21,880 /Sq. Km

Kolkata (Calcutta)Area: 185 Sqkm (Metro: 1,880 Sq. Km)Pop: 5 Mn (2009), (Metro: 15 Mn)Pop. density: 27,462 /Sq. Km

Chennai (Madras)Area: 181.2 Sq km (Metro: 1,180 Sq. Km)Pop: 4.34 Mn (Metro: 8.1 Mn (2009)Pop. density: 14,350 /Sq. Km

Delhi

Chen

Mumbai

Kolkata

Climate change vulnerability, measured as a composite of adaptivecapacity and climate sensitivity under exposure to climate change (O’Brien et al., Global Environmental Change 14 (2004) 303–313)

nai

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Areas currently prone to d h bl i h l

Climate model’s estimate of d h idrought: bluish colour

indicates areas where P>E: yellow to brown shades indicate regions where E>P

areas prone to drought in a warmer climate in 50 years

Courtesy: CICERO

Indian cities face challenges from population expansion and climate change

•Nearly 29 % of the 1.14 Billion population li i b

Uncontrolled migration:•from rural areas due to change in economy from agriculture to industries •illegal migration from neighbouring countries

lives in urban area•Decadal growth: urban 31.2% , rural 17.9

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RankCity/Urban area Average annual growth,

2006 to 2020, in %Population in 2020

(millions)

2 Mumbai (Bombay) 2.32 25.97

3 Delhi 3.48 25.83

11 Kolkata (Calcutta) 1.74 18.54

28 Bangalore 2.79 9.92

32 Chennai (Madras) 1.68 8.88

35 Hyderabad 2.21 8.61

39 Ahmadabad 2.73 7.78

41 Surat 4.99 7.72

43 Pune (Poona) 3.46 7.53

12 Indian cities among the 100 largest cities/urban areas in 2020

78 Jaipur 3.60 4.79

86 Kanpur 2.53 4.44

100 Lucknow 2.72 3.89

Source: citymayors.com

Unaccounted urban slum population > 40Mn [22.6% of urban] in 600 towns and cities Major issue in urban development

Half of Mumbai population live in informal housing or slums - they are the most vulnerable to natural disasters

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Water scarcity in cities: Among the million plus populated Asian cities, Chennai and Delhi are ranked as the worst water providers, while Mumbai and Kolkata are ranked as second and fourth (World Bank)

Water crisis will be more in coastal cities due to salinity intrusion in aquifers

Climate change impact on megacities…Rising sea level - flooding, salinity intrusion in coastal

aquifers, migration to interior, conflicts over land and water, waste removal problems, health issues

Changing frequency, intensity and region of formation of tropical storms storm surges may inundate moretropical storms – storm surges may inundate more interior in future

Increasing wave action and coastal erosionChange in coastal circulation and upwelling affecting urban

temperature Heat and cold waves SST variations affect urban temperature and costal

fi h i lif f t l iti d difisheries – life of poor coastal communities depending on marine resources affected

Shortage of water and powerTremendous loss due to damage in urban infrastructureFinancial burden associated with rehabilitation and

reconstruction

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Increasing trend in rainfall over the four cities due to change in mesoscale circulation near cities

Increasing trend in maximum temperature Significantly decreasing trend in visibility - consequence of

increased aerosol and changes in the surface airflow in the boundary layer

There has been a rapid growth in the number of deaths and injuries and scale of economic losses from weather-related

disasters

•Presently Mumbai is top among of 10 cities at risk in terms of population exposure to coastal flooding, with Kolkata at 6th position

•By 2070 Kolkatta and Mumbai will be ranking 1 and 2 (OEDC)

Heavy rains stagnate urban life - drainage system not well designed toaccommodate the pressure of fast rising population and changing climate –canals and waterways are not well maintained and treatment and filteringsystems are not adequate

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1m rise in sea levels will displace more than seven million people, destroy more than 5000

Courtesy: Madras school of economics

destroy more than 5000 square kilometres of land and 4000 kilometres of roads

Estimate using tide gauge data shows nearly 1 mm/year rise in sea level (Mumbai 1.2mm/year (Unnikrishnan et al., Current Science, 2006)

Sea level rise: threat to millions of poor in coastal cities

Three coastal megacities — Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata — at high risk from sea level rise and storm surges:- 1metre rise in sea level could

d t t th INRcause damage to property worth INR 2300 Billion in Mumbai (CSE)

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Kolcutta Chennai

Silver Beach (E coast) Cuddalore (E Coast)

Waves and storm surges increasingly erode the Indian coasts

Mumbai is highly vulnerable:-Population density (>30,000/Sq. Km)Large industrial and financial installationsLarge areas of reclaimed land in low-lying areas (25% below or

at MSL)Millions of poor (more than 50% population) with limited coping

capacity to face the consequences of climate change

Increase in rainfall, rise in MSL and poor drainage of the city will increase the frequency of floods.

Frequent floods and salt-water intrusion will affect the structural stability of high-rise buildings

Impacts on:Health – spread of diarrhoea, malaria and leptospirosis.Loss in tourism - expected loss Rs 1 963 500 crores by year 2050

Exceptionally heavy rainfall in Mumbai during 2005 and 2006 (321cm) – 50% above normal

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Mumbai July 26, 2005: 945mm rain in 24 hrs (Almost near the annual average of India), resulting in death over 1000 and damage $700 million

Epidemics following floods killed 900 peopleWater and power supply system under trouble for several days

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7 Feb 2008: Mumbai records lowest temp. in 46 years: 8.5 deg. –normal life disturbed

Mumbai: 1.62°C rise in the av. max. temp. in 100 years

Mumbai:- Encroachment and constructions destroys mudflats andconstructions destroys mudflats and mangroves, the natural drainages and flood controlling mechanisms:-high rainfall and high tide may worsen floods in near future

Pink: buildings; lighter green: land vegetationblue: water; dark green-brown: tidal mudflats and mangrovesCourtesy: Suvrat Kher, www.whatswiththeclimate.org

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•Delhi: City of extremes - either too hot,too cold or too humid more than two-third of the year•Heat and cold waves more common•Frost in January 2006 - first time in historyhistory

Retreat of the Himalayan glaciers: Serious threat to Delhi and Kolkata

•By 2030 Himalayan glaciers will shrink from 500,000 sq km to 100,000 sq km (affecting north Indian rivers where 50% water is from snow melt) :– IPCC 4th Assessment Reprt, 2007

Area prone to malaria would extend to Delhi and Mumbai soon

Endemic regions of malaria (1980 to 2000)

Regions likely to be affected by malaria according to the climate change projections(HadRM2runs of the IS92a scenario for India)

Bhattacharya et al., CURRENT SCIENCE, 2006

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Cases of Malaria multiplying in Mumbai in 2009: total case in 2008 was790, during Jan-Apr 2009 it was1351

Increase in coastal water temperatures would exacerbate the abundance and / or toxicity of cholera (IPCC)

“Climate change can lead to psychiatric illness“: WHOExtreme weather conditions like floods, droughts and natural calamities leads to psychiatric illnesses in poor people depending on climate sensitive sectors for livelihood likedepending on climate sensitive sectors for livelihood like agriculture

Socio-economic issues:

Disputes over allocation of water and powerDisputes over allocation of water and powerMigration to safe locations – competition for land & water Unemployment – spread of terrorismImpact of floods on infrastructureSetbacks in Coastal tourismImpact on industries, ports and trade etc - current economic

growth may be haltered

M i t t i h f b i iti f d tMore investment in schemes for basic necessities – food, water power etc

More investment for adaptation and post-disaster measures

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Urban reformation is important, as cities provide 50-60%GDP and employment to millions)

Govt measures for urban development: - Ministry of Urban Development has initiated institutional, fiscal and financial reforms to overcome financial crisis for development projects.Change in policy so as to collect max. funds from all possible

waysEstablishment of an Urban Training AcademySetting up of national core group on urban poverty, to make

cities slum-freeWater harvesting made mandatory for the megacitiesCNG for 200 cities in 6 yearsCNG for 200 cities in 6 yearsCity greening in Delhi and Chennai

India has not yet prepared an appropriate national urban policy!National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) is still in the process of

preparing guidelines to tackle the flood situation in urban areasNational climate policy and national water policy have not considered the

issues seriously

Hurdles in climate change impact mitigation measures:Lack of financeLack of awareness for the publicLack of proper training for professionalsPoor information system/unreliable data banksMonopoly/expense/reliability and difficulty in procurement of dataMonopoly/expense/reliability and difficulty in procurement of dataLack of adequate planning and visionLacks of efficient disaster management programme and a task forceBeurocracy/slow government machinery Fragmented organizational structuresLack of cooperation among agencies and Govt. departmentsWeak administrative and legal mechanisms C ti / i i ti <40% ll tt d t t ll tCorruption/misappropriation <40% allotted grants actually spentVested political/regional interests – rules/ regulations become farceSocial issues – conflict among different groupsDelay in projects – 60% projects have been lagging for several years,

slowing down development and causing waste of money

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“In India even if God comes down he cannot change our country. He will be a silent spectator as He will also feel helpless. Our country’s character has gone. We are helpless. We are fed up with this government. They don’t have the guts to differ with the opinion of the clerks.” - Hon. Supreme Court of India, 05 August 2008 (case against unauthorized occupants in Delhi)

“Corruption in construction projects has spread like cancer, there is the need for quality benchmarks and quality assurance” - Prime Minister of India

“New ideas, transparency and accountability are still being resisted at various levels in the government” - National Knowledge Commission (NKC)

Recommendations…A comprehensive, frequently updated adaptation policy Disaster preparedness- component of climate change action plans Identifying management practices and policies to reduce

vulnerability of ecosystemsD l t f l f t d l t tDevelopment of early forecast and alert systemsBetter institutional capacity and coordination of agenciesRedesigning urban infrastructure to cope with changesWater treatment/ water reuseNew building technology to save from corrosion, erosion, and

wave actionUrban ecosystem enhancement to avoid formation of heat

islands-green roofing/urban forest/parks/tree-lined roads..Energy efficient buildings, less polluting urban industriesModernization of urban transportLand-use planning to avoid risk, ensuring affordable housing for

poor

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Development of suburban centres and satellite citiesRelocation of urban industries Innovative insurance and financial schemes Improving the life of slum dwellersFostering awareness through NGOs - sharing of

k l d d t h l t ith t

Strict implementation of Coastal Zone Regulation act – by ensuring rehabilitation and employment/labour opportunities

knowledge and technology to cope with extremes Equitable sharing of resources

“Impact of climate change in India, where almost 70% of the workforce is dependent on agriculture, would be extremely serious, with mass migration of rural communities to already overburdened towns andmigration of rural communities to already overburdened towns and cities, adding to the problems of inadequate urban infrastructure and burgeoning slum populations”

“On a scale of 0 to 10, India scores a poor 0.5 in preparedness for the effects of climate change that could include severe water scarcity, floods, drought and mass migration” - Rajendra Pachauri, Chairman, IPCC, ,

National policies and plans have not considered the situation seriously:

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In India, climate change represents an additional stress on ecological and socioeconomic systems that are already facing tremendous pressures due to rapid

urbanization, industrialization and economic development. Control of human interference on

environment is equally important

Climate change has already started affecting the urban poor. Future strategies to combat climate

change will be more effective if it is linked to development and poverty

alleviation

Adaptation should be at the top of the policy agenda

India needs a strong, impartial and non-vested political will to

achieve this

Photo courtesy: AFP