An Assessment of Skills Needs and Estimation of the Job …€¦ · · 2017-10-30Industry in...

An Estimation of the Job

Potential and Assessment of

Skills Needs for the Biogas

Industry in South Africa

GIZ, SAGEN, GreenCape and AltGen

AltGen Consulting - www.altgen.co.za

Second Phase of SAGEN’s programme: Market Development for Biogas Projects

Beyond the Numbers

“You can do all the environmental good work you want,

but if people don’t have reasonably good prospects for

jobs, incomes and dignified livelihoods, then they will not

be supportive of what it takes to stabilize the climate and

conserve nature”

- Michael Renner (Hitchcock 2008:4)


Content

Scope, Study Aims and Boundaries

Literature Review: Job Creation and Qualification

Interviews and Industry Engagements

Quantitative and Qualitative Outputs

Job Forecast Model

Next Steps

Suggestions: Biogas Potential


Scope of GIZ Biogas Study South Africa’s deficiency of skilled human resources to implement and run

projects.

Currently no particular job creation estimates done for South Africa.

Therefore, the aim of the mandated study is to:

Provide conservative estimates for the potential employment opportunities;

Identify the employment prospects according to plant size, feedstock,

lifespan of the project;

Analyse skills needs and identify existing skills development opportunities;

The outcomes of the completed assessment will:

Facilitate the development of the National Biogas Strategy;

Advise relevant institutions to develop accredited coursework material

Open doors for students and broaden their career horizons

Biogas Study Aim and Outcomes

International and Local

Job Creation Figures

Site Visits / Industry

Interviews (South

African)

Utilise Local Biogas

Potential

Calculate employment potential of

biogas value chain

Skills and training gap

/ needs assessment

Inform DoE National Biogas

Strategy


Desktop

research /

Current

Situation

Overlay with national and

international experience

Time Series

Forecast Model

Follow all leads -

snowball

We need

your input!

Primary Feedstocks

• Municipal Waste (WWTP, Solid)

• Commercial processes (food, abattoir, animal waste)

South African Value Chain

• Direct Jobs

• AD plant activities

Biogas Potential

• Determined by Industry

Assessing the Skills Gap

• Unique to South Africa

Quantifying Jobs

• Direct Jobs

• Based on Case Studies

• Unique Job and Skills Factor

• Individuals/Org charts


Study Boundaries

• Does not include indirect

jobs, (multiplier can be

utilised for a high level

understanding)

• Biogas Potential one of

the largest stumbling

blocks to forecast job

creation

• Primary focus on AD

projects in the

construction,

commissioning or O&M

phases

Literature Review:

Job Creation and

Qualifications

International perspective, outcomes, and methodologies: Used to analyse the

South African market, where we are and where we are going


Literature review: Global Biogas job potential


IRENA estimates 381 000 jobs Full Time Equilivent (FTE) in biogas worldwide (2014)

Number of jobs depends greatly on feedstock (Kelleher Environmental, 2013):

AD incorporated into WWTW requires fewer FTE operational jobs

AD for agricultural sources requires more FTE operational jobs

Developed countries Developing countries (Incl. BRICS)

Size Mostly Large commercial

scale/utility: > 300 kW

Combination:

• Rural/Domestic

• Small scale: < 30 kW

• Medium scale: 30 kW – 300 kW

• Large scale/utility: > 300 kW

Leading

examples

Germany, UK, France, Italy, Spain China, India, Kenya, Bangladesh

Feedstock Agricultural sources

Landfill gas

Source separated organics

Waste-water treatment works

Household waste

Agricultural sources

Waste-water treatment works

Source: REN21, 2012


Literature review: Biogas FTECountry Technology Development Installation new

facilities jobs/typeO&M jobs/type

Fuel Supply Total Source

Canada (I/O, 2009)

Biogas (CHP) 12/direct (includes export)

8/indirect

63/direct

41/indirect

0 (includes export)

75 direct

49 indirect

(IEA, 2012)

Denmark (I/O, 2009)

Biogas (CHP) 4/direct

3/indirect

40/direct

12/indirect

93/direct

72/indirect

137/direct

87/indirect

(IEA, 2012)

France(I/O, 2009)

Biogas (CHP) 192/direct

158/indirect

153/direct

42/indirect

345/direct

200/indirect

(IEA, 2012)

Germany(I/O, 2009)

Biogas (CHP) 8,345/direct

5,575/indirect

4,104/direct

673/indirect

9,142/direct

3,395/indirect

21,591/direct

12,467/indirect

(IEA, 2012)

Germany(I/O, 2009)

Biowaste (incl. CHP)

478/direct

332/indirect

285/direct

70/indirect

0 763/direct

402/indirect

(IEA, 2012)

South Africa (I/O, 2010)

AD 60/direct 6/direct 100 (Maia, 2010)

UK AD Total Jobs 4,82FTEs

(Wrap, 2014)

UK AD 320-579FTE 68-123FTE 379-868FTE 752-1360FTE 1,358-2,457FTE

(NNFC, 2012)estimate for 2020

Germany Biogas 11,000+ Wisconsin Biogas Plan 2011

http://iea-retd.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/EMPLOY-Guidelines-Annex-2.pdf





https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/48341/5131-uk-jobs-in-the-bioenergy-sectors-by-2020.pdf

https://www.americanbiogascouncil.org/pdf/Biogas WI Plan 2011.pdf


Sector Average FTE/MW in

2012*

FTE/MW used in 2020

projections**

Plant design/development 2.12 0.21

Plant construction and commissioning 11.84 1.18

Permanent jobs in operation 2.21 2.35

Contract jobs in operation 1.43

Feedstock procurement and sourcing 0.5 0.5

Total 18.1 4.24

* 2012 installed capacity was 110 MW** Projected installed capacity in 2020 ranges from 320-579 MW

The UK National Non-Foods Crops Centre Bioeconomy Consultants (McDermott, 2012) used the following data to predict employment in the AD biogas sector in 2020 for the UK, taking into account short development and construction periods.

Example Methodology:

UK employment factors (EF)

Source: McDermott, 2012; Green Investment Bank, 2015


Literature review: Global Qualifications

Developed Countries

•The International Biogas and Bioenergy Centre of expertise (IBBK) founded in Germany, provides training courses in South Africa, Europe, Malaysia

•Europe and UK: 2-5 day training courses at various institutes: covers design and planning, plant technology, process engineering, feasibility and decision criteria

•Diploma in Biogas Technology (EU)

•Germany (and elsewhere in EU) various Bach and Masters associated that cover Biogas and AD

Developing Countries

•Biogas Development and Training Centre in India at the Kalinga Institute of Industrial Technology Virendra Kumar Vijay Centre for Rural Development and Technology, Delhi, India: offers courses in Biogas Technology and Mechanism and others

•National Institute of Open Schooling offers a Biogas Energy Technician course – 1 year Vocational Education course (online distance learning), India

•Biogas Institute of the Ministry of Agriculture in China: training, research and development of industrial standards

•Private companies that implement biogas technology facilitate training in Kenya and Uganda, with the aim to train artisans that can one day open their own companies in biogas construction and operation

•Tanzania Domestic Biogas Program as a component of the African Biogas Partnership Programme funded by European organisations

•The Biogas Institute of the Ministry of Agriculture in China (BIOMA) does research, development of standards and training

•The International Centre on Renewable Energy – Biogás in Brazil offers education, policy and promotion of industry

Currently, South African

developers get

international training.

Are we missing anything

internationally? Locally?


Literature review:

Skills and qualifications observations

For persons educated in plant operation/design/process or mechanical

engineering etc., utility scale AD design/operation/maintenance can

be taught in short courses (2-10 days) and will most likely be

implemented by companies in the field of AD technology

For small scale/rural AD comprising of simple mechanisms, AD

building/operation/maintenance can be taught in short courses (2-10

days). This is often done through government/NGO/internationally

funded programmes and institutes or through the company

implementing the technology

SABIA industry interviewees explained that formalising the market is not required at this

stage, as the tendency with emerging markets, the cost to employ full time qualified

individuals will only occur in 5 years or more. It is more cost effective to employ a part

time expert – however service and operation agreements with speciality components

supplies would be useful in the market

Interviews and Industry

EngagementsIndustry Consensus, Obstacles and Benefits


Interviews: Questionnaire and data

gathering sheet

• Consensus: project sizes, project phases, skills value chain, organograms, skill level and project phase duration

• Establish South African Employment Factor and Skills Level Factor

• Skills gap/development Case Studies

• Uncover obstacles and benefits of the biogas industry


We need

your input!

Example answers are written in red. Please note the format of information and delete examples

Project Name Feedstock Capacity

Developer EPC Type

Development duration Construction duration Operations duaration

Project phase Title Number of people

Full time/ Part time (person-

months per project) Qualification Current Skill Level Desired Skill Level

Specialised Biogas

Training

Feasibility/Development Design Engineers 1 FT (12 months) Beng Mechanical Engineer Highly skilled Highly skilled Yes

Feasibility/Development



Construction Electrical contractors 8 FT (2 months) Certificate Skilled Skilled No

Construction Civil contractors 25 FT (6 months) Experience Unskilled Semi-skilled No

Construction

Construction

Construction

Construction

Construction

Construction

Construction

Operations Plant Manager 2 FT (lifetime of project) Beng Process Engineer Highly skilled Skilled Yes

Operations Troubleshooter 1 PT (as required over lifetime of project)Beng Process Engineer Highly skilled Highly skilled Yes

Biogas Tables


Data collection – Organogram table format

Table 1: Template used to obtain phase and project specific employment stats.

Skill level Formal Definition

Highly Degrees & post graduate studies e.g. Engineers, Managers

Skilled Tertiary education - Diploma e.g. Technicians

Semi-skilled Further Education & Training - certificates e.g. Machine Operators & Civil Installers

Unskilled General/Basic Education e.g. Groundsmen

Skill level is key to the study,determining the employment potential and skill gap

FT: traditional work-hour week

over a year or certain period of

months

PT: specific hours per week over a

year or certain period of months

We need your input! - Please fill in a table if you understand the

organogram required for AD development, implementation and O&M

Interviews and Site Visits

•Cape EAPrac

•Clark Energy

• Re-energize

•SABIA

•Green Cape

•SANEDI

•Red Meat Abattoir Association

•WEC Projects

•Bosch Projects

•IBert

•Fountain Civils

•BAU-Africa

•Founders Engineering

•Biogas SA

•Clean Energy Africa

•Bio2Watt

•Agama

•Anaergia

•Cape Advanced Engineering

•Elgin

•IBert

Developers/

OwnersEPC/O&M

Technical Specialists/

OEMs

Associations


• Completed 5 Site Visits

• Completed 13 Interviews

• Awaiting project specific

data from 8 entities

• No contact from 10

entities

Morgan Abattoir Springs (o.4MW)

Bonkhorstspruit Biogas Plants (4.4MW)

CAE, Uilenkraal (500kW+)

WEC, WWTW, JHB (1.1MW)

New Horizon, AD, Athlone (400 tons / day)

Completed Site Visits

Are you

here? Should

you be here?

Case study: Bronkhorstspruit Biogas Project (Pty) Ltd

Developers: Bio2Watt

Location: Tshwane, Gauteng

Supplies: 25-30% of BMW Rosslyn

Plant electricity requirements

Capacity: 4.6MW

Project status: Operational

Feed: 40 000 tons p.a. manure

(Beefcor (Pty) Ltd) & 20 000 tons

p.a. mixed organic waste

O&M: 6 full time staff

Project life span: 20 years


Source: BMW Group, 2015

Case study: Uilenkraal Dairy Farm (CAE)

Developers: Cape Advanced

Engineering

Location: Darling, Western Cape

Supplies: 95% of Uilenkraal Dairy

Farm electricity requirements

Capacity: 500kW


Feed: Manure from 1 200 cows

O&M: 1 full time Engineer

Project life span: 10 years +


Source: Claassen, 2015

Case study: Elgin Fruit Juice Biogas Project

Developers: Beckedorf BioEnergy

GmbH

Location: Grabouw, Western

Cape

Supplies: Elgin Fruit Juices (Pty) Ltd

Capacity: 0.5 MW


Feed: 1-2 tons/day manure and

waste fruit (Groenland Meat

Traders) & <1 ton/day chicken

manure (Elgin Free Range)

O&M: 1 full time staff, 4 part time

Project life span: TBC


Source:

Case study: Northern Wastewater Treatment Works

Developers: WEC Projects (Pty) Ltd

Location: Johannesburg,

Gauteng

Supplies: 15% of Northern WWTW

(Johannesburg Water) electricity

requirements

Capacity: 1.2 MW per day


Feed: 400 million litres of domestic

sewage per day

O&M: 1 full time Plant Operator



Source: Odendaal, 2013; WEC Projects (Pty) Ltd, 2015; Njobeni, 2012

Case study: Morgan Springs Biogas Project

Developers: BiogasSA

Location: Springs, Gauteng

Supplies: ±50% of Morgan Abattoir (Pty) Ltd electricity requirements

Installed Capacity: 0.4 MW

Project status: Being Commissioned

Feed: Slaughter waste supplemented by vegetable waste

Job creation: 1 full time staff



Source: BiogasSA, 2015

Case study: Jan Kempdorp Abattoir

Developers: IBERT South Africa

Location: Jan Kempdorp,

Northern Cape

Supplies: Jan Kempdrop abattoir

Capacity: 650 kWh/day


Feed: 10-20 tons/day slaughter

waste

Job creation: 11 part time staff



Source: Bio4Gas Express & Global Methane Initiative, 2012

Case study: New Horizon, Wastemart AD

Developers: Clean Energy Africa

Location: Athlone, Cape Town

Output: Gas to commercial

operations

Capacity: 4MW

Project status: Construction

Feed: 400 tonnes organic solid

waste

Job creation: Operations: 30

unskilled; 10+ skilled



Source: TBD

Project sizes


Rural

• <10kW• Self-consumption e.g. household with 2 cows

• Off grid, rural communities and individual households

• <1 Tons of MSW/manure/sewage (Typical feedstock)

Small scale• <30kW• Self-consumption e.g. household

• Case studies/Developers: Waste to Energy Programme - SANEDI, Agama & BiogasSA

• 0,1-2 Tons of MSW/manure/sewage (Typical feedstock)

Medium scale/

Commercial

• >30kW <300kW• Self-consumption e.g. restaurants, schools

• Developers: Jan Kempdorp – Ibert, WEC

• 2-15 Tons of MSW/manure/agricultural/abattoir/sewage (Typical feedstock)

Large scale/Utility• >300kW• Self consumption & fed into the grid e.g. abattoir, feedlot, agricultural processing

• Case studies/Developers: Bronkhorstspruit - B2W, Uilenkraal – CAE & Morgan Springs – BiogasSA

• 15-150 Tons of MSW/manure/abattoir/WWTW (Typical feedstock)

No industry consensus around project sizes with reference to increasing your resource to develop, implement and operate. For example, the below figures were mentioned in interviews or a comment on a report/policy submitted by SABIA or the DAE Report refers to 25kW – 250KW.

Can you

differentiate

project sizes in

tons of feedstock

input?

Developer Based: Project Pipeline


Quantity of projects implemented in the next 5 years>1MW

• Developer 1: 2

• Developer 2: 3 (others projects)

• Developer 3: 4

• Developer 4: 3

• Developer 6: 11 (5 for electricity generation and 6 for other)

With shorter development times, an estimated ratios was provided<300kW (RATIO)

• Developer 1: 5 Projects Per Year

• Developer 2: 5 this year, figure doubling every subsequent year

• Developer 3: No answer, depends on too many factors

• Developer 4: agreed with Developer 2 yet does not develop projects on this side

• Developer 5: Initial answer was 20, yet realistic was 5

• Developer 6: No answer as not involved in smaller projects

<30kW and <10kW (RATIO)

• Developer 1: 20 Projects per year

• Developer 2: Between 100-300 per year, with subsidies up to 2,000-3,000 per year

• Developer 3: No comment

• Developer 4: Confirmed Developer 2’s responses, yet does not develop projects on this side

Role Definitions within the AD Value Chain (RSA)


Pre-development

•Site selection

•Feedstock evaluation

•Pre-environmental assessment

•Preliminary plant design

•Financial pre-feasibility

Development

•Project management

•Technical finalisation

•EIA

•Permitting & Licensing

•Bankability and project finance

•Financial Close

Construction & Commissioning

•Procurement

•Site and construction management

•Commissioning

•Performance testing

Operations & Maintenance

•Operations management

•Technical maintenance & monitoring

•Feedstock supply and management

•Output management (digestrate)

•Trouble shooting

Through industry interviews and various literature sources, the above phases were identified as being most relevant to the South African biogas industry. For the purpose of biogas, pre-development and development are two separate phases, however, going forward they have been combined under “development”.

Quantitative and Qualitative

Outputs Organograms, Data, and Skills Requirements

NB! The Following Organograms are quite broad and vague at this stage to demonstrate the required skills, but not necessarily the number of people employed during the time period.


Rural/Small <30kW

(Development – Construction – O&M)

Developer

Labourers

Plant Operator

Red box indicates a Highly skilled level.

The Developer will generally

be involved in all phases.

Once a steady demand has

been established and enough

digesters are installed, Semi-

skilled Operators will be

assigned per region.

The Organogram remains the

same for Rural and

Small/Domestic scale systems.

Yellow box indicates a Skilled level.

Green box indicates an Unskilled level.

Medium >30kW <300kW

(Development Phase)

Developer

Design Engineers EIA ConsultantsTechnical

ConsultantsFeedstock Testing

TechniciansAdministrative

Assistant




Medium >30kW <300kW

(Construction Phase)

Project Manager

Construction Manager

GroundsmenSecurity Guards

HSE Manager

Electrical Engineer

Electrical Technician

Civil Engineer

Civil Technician

Machine Operator

Truck Drivers

Civil Installers




Purple box indicates a Semi-skilled level.

Medium >30kW <300kW

(O&M Phase)

Plant Operator

Feedstock Supply & Treatment Technicians

Feedstock Monitoring Technician

Administrative Assistant




Staff are likely to work on a shift basis as the plants are operational and require a consistent feedstock 24/7.

Large >300kW

(Development Phase)

Developer

Design Engineers EIA Consultant

Technical Consultant

Feedstock Testing

Technician

Administrative Assistant




Large >300kW

(Construction Phase)

Project Manager


Site Supervisors

Surveyors Logistics Staff

Machine Operators

Truck Drivers

Contracts Manager

Contracts Administrators

Groundsmen Security

HSE Manager QC Manager

Civils Engineer

Civil Technicians

ElectricalEngineer

Electrical Technicians

Electrical Contractors

Mechanical Engineer

Mechanical Artisan

Mechanical Installers

Mechanical Labourers

Project Planner




Purple box indicates a Semi-skilled level.

Large >300kW

(O&M Phase)




Plant Operator

Feedstock Supply & Treatment Technicians

Feedstock Monitoring Technician

Security

Staff are likely to work on a shift basis

as the plants are operational 24/7.

Skills Factor Analysis:

based on current (limited) information


Table 2: Percentage of individuals involved in each project phase in terms of their skill level.

Based on overall numbers and not man hours.

Project phase

Phase/Size

Project size

Rural/Small Medium Large

Development 100% Highly 60% Highly

40% Skilled

70% Highly

30% Skilled

Construction 30% Highly

70% Unskilled

15% Highly

25% Skilled

20% Semi-skilled

40% Unskilled

5% Highly

30% Skilled

35% Semi-skilled

30% Unskilled

O&M 100% Highly 20% Highly

35% Skilled

45% Unskilled

10% Highly

30% Skilled

30% Semi-skilled

30% Unskilled

Limited data sets

regarding rural

plants

Trend: One

developer (highly

skilled) manages

plants through all

phases

Technical Skills and Training Analysis

Most training is done onsite by the technology providers (OEMs)

Some key skills are sent overseas

Duration of training can be from 1 or 2 days up to 3 months

Cost of qualified skills are too expensive (e.g. R20k), therefore operators try to trouble shoot in house before calling an expert

The most relevant qualifications for operations: a Mill Right (electrical and mechanical skills)and Fitter and Turner;

Cost of annual employment expensive, as skills currently reside within the mining industry and more recently the wind energy industry

South African Strengths: implementing and operating large scale gas turbine/engines, civil works (a majority of the skills required for construction)

Weaknesses: International expert training is required for all aspects of the AD, while some designs are completed locally, the “real” skills gap where training is required is during the operations and trouble shooting of the biological and organic contents of the AD as well as the complexity of the mechanics that effect AD processes and therefore gas outputs.


Inhibiting and Enabling industry factors

(based on interviews) To also inform Scenario 2; long-term MW capacity


Inhibiting factors Current enablers Potential enablers

Lack of awareness, public, private and

government

SABIA, stakeholders and industry reflection in media Under utilised waste streams

Low electricity prices (to make biogas more viable)

Tight margins, unable to pay qualified plant

operators

Skilled or semi-skilled employees specifically trained

in biogas may be cheaper

Full EIA required for the production of methane

(cost and time)

Streamlined EIA process – less licences for lower

output

Legislative requirements are quite divided and

unclear

Central base to refer to for legislation

No market for the surplus energy generation <1MW Feed-In Tariffs for surplus energy <1MW

Abattoirs can only be considered at scale, i.e. 200

cattle per day, 1000 sheep, more than 100,000

chickens

Waste laws (NEM:WA) preventing abattoir wastes

to be treated with municipal wastewater or sent to

landfills

Feedlot unviable below 20,000 cattle

Farmers are too high a risk for banks to lend money

for biogas implementation

Long (10year+) payback period too long for

farmers to invest directly

More streamlined process will require less capital

investment

We need

your input!

Benefits brought by the biogas industry


•Electricity and fuel for rural areas

•Gas fuel: cleaner than other gas fuels or charcoal

•Less labour intensive energy collection than charcoal preparation, especially for women in rural areas who usually spend long hours collecting the wood for burning

Socio economic

•Feedstock treatment, preparation and transport

•Fertiliser preparation and transport

Semi-direct – employment

•manufacturing biogas-specific domestic appliances for rural or household biogas use

Supplementary industry

•On-site sewage treatment for rural areas that are not connected to a municipal wastewater grid

•Improvement of municipal wastewater treatment works (WWTW) sludge digestion and management

•Treatment of abattoir waste and other hazardous wastes (condemned materials that cannot be treated in WWTW or sent to landfill)

•MSW redirection from landfills

•Less deforestation and burning for charcoal fuel in rural areas

Environmental

•No grid connection required for far-out rural areas that would be an expensive infrastructure process

•Lower electricity costs for abattoirs/agricultural farms/commercial plants/WWTW using biogas electricity/heat on site

Electricity

We need

your input!

Job Forecast ModelMethod and Status



Biogas Model Methodology Calculation of number of direct jobs per MW installed

capacity and required skill level of jobs, using Equations 1

and 2 below:

1. Input Employment factor:

• Suggested values will be given (still to be completed)

2. Input skill factor level

• Base case and suggested values will be given (still to be

completed)

• Number of FTE jobs and required skill levels based on

organograms (empirical data)

𝐷𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝑗𝑜𝑏𝑠 = 𝐼𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑑 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑀𝑊 × 𝐸𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑛𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠

𝑀𝑊

𝑅𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑠𝑘𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑙𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑙 = 𝐷𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝑗𝑜𝑏𝑠 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑛 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠 × 𝑠𝑘𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑙𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑙 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 (%)

Eq. 1.

Eq. 2.

Source: authors

Source: Rutovitz, 2010

Output:

Number of direct jobs (FTE)

Associated skill level

•Scenario 2: optimistic growth

• Provided legislation and

organisational support is

implemented or upheld

• Fast growth of installed

capacity

•Scenario 1: conservative growth

• Provided little or no legislation

and organisational support is

implemented or upheld

• Slow growth of installed

capacity

Biogas model methodology

Two scenarios to represent the direction the industry may take


Scenario number 1 2

Description Base case, status-quo Optimistic

Legal environment Upheld at current state, no changes

to current legislation and

organisational support

Provided legislation is changed to

make for an easier process and

organisational support is increased

Feedstock

availability

Upheld at current availability and

mechanisms

Increase in feedstocks due to

changes in legislature, integrated

system technology and growing

knowledge base of biogas

potential

Technology

availability

50-80% of technology sourced from

South Africa, the remaining sourced

internationally (Developers 5 & 8,

2016)

100% of components produced in

South Africa

Scenario number 1 2

Description Base case, status-quo Optimistic

Education and

skill-level

International training courses for

highly skilled operators and

technicians

‘On the job’ learning for skilled, semi-

skilled and unskilled employees

Local training courses and

certifications for all skill levels

Associated costs Electricity prices as is

Importing of 20-50% of technology

Feed-In Tariffs only for specific

electricity outputs

Wheeling costs as is

Travel expenses for international

training courses

Increase in electricity prices

resulting in industry interest in

alternative energy sources

Decrease in capital costs due to

locally made technology

Feed-In Tariffs adjusted

Wheeling costs adjusted

Locally trained employees

Overall growth of

installed capacity

assumption

Slow Fast

Model inputs and outputs


Input Output

Scenario 1 or 2

Year of prediction

Employment factors (person-years

per MW)

Skill level factors (%)

Number of direct jobs

Associated skill levelCalculations

Calculations overview


Project Manager


Site Supervisors

Surveyors Logistics Staff

Machine Operators

Truck Drivers

Contracts Manager

Contracts Administrators

Groundsmen Security

HSE Manager QC Manager

Civils Engineer

Civil Technicians

ElectricalEngineer

Electrical Technicians

Electrical Contractors

Mechanical Engineer

Mechanical Artisan

Mechanical Installers

Mechanical Labourers

Project Planner

Organograms + Potential Future installed capacity + Employment factor

2016 … 2020 … 2025 … 2030

Jobs per MW

Inst

alle

d C

ap

ac

ity

Time

Future installed capacity + Employment factor Number of direct jobs

Jobs per MW

Inst

alle

d C

ap

ac

ity

Time

2016 … 2020 … 2025 … 2030

Project size

Large

Medium /

commercial

Small

Rural


Output overview

Number of direct jobs considers:

Project phase

Feasibility /

development

Construction

Operation

Skill level

Highly skilled

Skilled

Semi-skilled

Unskilled

Forecast Time Series Model INPUTS

2015 -2030


As a result of so many feedstocks, the model will be

interactive so that users can input their own skills

factor and job factor with recommendations for high

level decision makers


For

demonstration

only!

Outputs are

not correct.

What is outstanding to complete the

biogas study

Final interviews and data tables

Biogas Potential 2016-2030

Estimated project pipelines (projects estimation available for

next 5 years only)

Analysis

Indirect Multiplier and Spin-off Industries / Value Chains

Meaningful job creation analysis and Skills gap analysis


More information is

required for medium and

small scale projects

Suggestions: biogas potentialBiogas potential is not in the scope of our study

This is however important information for the accuracy of our model


Biogas Potential


SCENARIO 1: Status Quo (current pipeline + BAU regulatory)

SCENARIO 2: Resource based (current pipeline + enabling regulatory environment + increased electricity prices)

CONSERVATIVE

OPTIMISTIC

POTENTIALIRP (2010)

REIPP allocation – 12.5MW

(DoE, 2015)

Industry Interviews

AGAMA 2008 (300,000

households)

Industry interviews

•WWTW – 148, only those >10GL

•Pipeline based on sizes

DEA Report, 2015 – biogas

production potential

Nm3/day per sector

Abattoir slaughter stats (DAFF, 2015)

•Animals ratio TBC- Mark Tiepelt & SABIA

What are we

missing? Do you

have any

information

relating to

potential?

South Africa stats:

Around 82% of land in SA is farmland (ACDI, 2012)

Agricultural, farming and fisheries industries contribute 2% of national GDP: R19 billion industry in third quarter of 2015 (Statistics South Africa, 2015)

12.5 MW is allocated to the biogas sector in the REIPPP, with little uptake (DoE, 2015)


Biogas Potential:

an example of the type of data we are looking for

StreamPotential MW in Western Cape

Low est. High est.

Cattle in Feedlots 26.4 71.5

Rural Cattle 423.6 1 148.2

Dairies 77.9 80.5

Piggeries 12 476.3

Red meat abattoirs 0.1 16.3

Poultry farms 313.4 992

Poultry abattoirs 0.2 2.3

Source: ACDI, 2015

Equivalent

information

required for

other

provinces

Biogas Potential


Maia et al. (2011) estimates the following employment levels for 25 farm-

scale plants being built per-year, 32 industrial plants and 33 large-scale plants:

Short term Medium term Long term

Activity Domestic Export

relatedTotal Domestic Export

relatedTotal Domestic Export

relatedTotal

Construction 38 3 41 108 5 113 339 23 362

O&M 17 0 17 94 0 94 476 0 476

Manufacturing 54 19 73 144 34 178 450 141 591

Totals 109 22 131 346 39 385 1 265 164 1 429

Source: Maia et al., 2011

Next Steps:


• Finalise interviews

• Obtain more data from stakeholders

• Follow up on outstanding data tables

• Finalize EF and SLF: industry consensus organograms/skill requirements

• Circulate questions and content for approval

• Secure potential Biogas implementation (GIZ)

• Complete model and analysis

• General Comments/Feedback

Participation and Support

Thank you!Please contact AltGen for more information on the study,

and to share your information with us.


Email: [email protected] and [email protected]

Phone: (021) 880 2561 and ask for Hanna, Ann or Sarah

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

An Assessment of Skills Needs and Estimation of the Job …€¦ · · 2017-10-30Industry in...

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