An Analysis of Orissa (India) Budget during 1990- 91 to 2008-09 Pravas Mishra, Programme Manager,...
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Transcript of An Analysis of Orissa (India) Budget during 1990- 91 to 2008-09 Pravas Mishra, Programme Manager,...
An Analysis of Orissa (India) Budget during 1990-91 to 2008-09
Pravas Mishra, Programme Manager , CYSD , India [email protected]
• Population: 36 million, 3.57 percent of Indian population (11th most populous state in India)
• Nearly 85 percent live in rural areas, 22.1 percent are tribal belonging to 62 ethnic communities; 16.5 percent constitute scheduled castes
• The poverty rate is 47.15 percent, in tribal locations the rate is 84 percent
• Per capita income: 12,388INR (current prices)• The state ranks 11 in Human Development
Index ranking out of 15 major states in India (Value: 0.404)
• Literacy rate : 63.08 percent (M – 76.1 and F – 51)
• Literacy rate in tribal districts is 30 – 35 percent
• Infant mortality rate is 75 in Orissa contrary to 58 at the national level.
• 54.4% of the children are undernourished
• 76% depend on agriculture
• Agriculture alone provides direct/indirect employment to around 65% of the total workforce (2001 census).
Policy Declarations vs. Budget Allocation Regional Disparity in Fund Allocation and
Development Indicators among states Inadequate Devolution of Resources to Grass
root institutions Lack of Systematic Research on Budgetary
Allocation and Expenditure Absence of Civil Society Participation in Budget
Process
Development of Data Base of Orissa State Budget
Engagement with the Legislators and Budget Makers of the State
Development of a Preliminary Resource Base on the State Budget Analysis
Created a space for the citizens to have a dialogue with the state
Commitment of the state on macro level fiscal fronts
Implications of the macro level fiscal corrections on the social sector expenditures of the state
Data analysis was made from the secondary sources such as the published budget documents of government of Orissa, Reserve Bank of India, Economic survey of different years.
Pre-reform and post reform phase were considered basing on the initiation of the fiscal reform of the Government. The financial years 2008-09 and 2009-10 were not taken because these two years are having revised and estimated data.
Compounded Annual Growth Rate(CAGR) is calculated by using SPSS i.e. log(Dependent variable) = a + b(Independent variable) CAGR = (Antilog( b) -1) X 100
Elasticity is calculated by using regression coefficient through SPSS
Revenue deficit was lowest during 1990-91 and highest during 1998-99
The fiscal deficit was also all-time high at during 1998-99 and the debt as a proportion of GSDP was also highest during that period
Initiated during 1999 with the advice of the union government of India and 11th and 12th Finance commission of India
Targets were fixed with regard to indicators - Bringing revenue deficit to zero by 2008-09- Fiscal deficit to 2.5 percent of GSDP - Interest payment as a percentage of Revenue
Receipt 18-20 percent
Revenue deficit declined and attained the status of revenue surplus during 2005-06
Decreasing public expenditure
CAGR of GSDP is less during the post reform in compared to the pre-reform reflecting slow growth of the economy
The growth rate of Total State Expenditure(TSE) lessened during the post reform phase indicating Government’s with drawl from investment activities
Significant fall in the Social Sector Expenditure(SSE) expressing reduced pro-poor allocation
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL GROWTH RATE (CAGR)
Improvements observed in growth rate of plan, capital as well as revenue receipts
Revenue expenditures significantly reduced during the post reform
The elasticity of GSDP and Revenue Receipt is more during the post reform in compared to the pre reform implies that the growth of GSDP during the post reform contributed more towards growth in revenue receipt during the post reform.
However, responsiveness of other variables such as the total state expenditure, social sectors expenditure, debt was less during the post reform period.
Thus, though the growth in GSDP was observed during the post reform phase, the contribution towards the social sector expenditure and total state expenditure was less.
Year Total State Expenditure GSDP Percentage of TSE to GSDP
1990-91 3091.44 10904 28.351991-92 3640.61 14012 25.981992-93 3914.95 15138 25.861993-94 4455.1 18613 23.941994-95 4981.96 22403 22.241995-96 5562.3 27118 20.511996-97 6310.39 26504 23.811997-98 6854.37 32235 21.261998-99 8642.31 35581 24.29
Pre-reform 24.031999-00 10209.66 42910 23.792000-01 11047.38 43493 25.402001-02 12064.74 46946 25.702002-03 13266.61 50223 26.422003-04 15564.99 61422 25.342004-05 15885.8 71428 22.242005-06 15746.36 78953 19.942006-07 19345.99 93374 20.722007-08 22844.33 106466 21.46
Post-reform 23.45
Period Pre- reform (1990-91 to 1998-99)
Post -Reform (1999-00 to 2007-08)
Whole (1990-2008)
GSDP 15.6 13 13.2Total State Expenditure 12.7 10.9 12.2Plan Expenditure 9.1 9.6 7.6Development Expenditure
10.9 8.9 9.4
Capital Expenditure 5.7 12.5 6.7Total social sector expenditure
13.5 7.6 10.9
Revenue Receipt 10.2 17.8 13.5Revenue Expenditure 14.6 9.6 12.5Debt 15.6 9.6 14.3
Dependent Variable Independent Variable
Pre-reform Post Reform
Revenue Receipt GSDP 0.66 1.33(elastic)
Revenue expenditure 0.91 0.75
Total State Expenditure 0.80 0.75
Total Social Sector Expenditure
0.85 0.75
Debt 0.97 0.70
Revenue Receipt Total state expenditure
0.79 1.69
Debt 1.20 0.92
*Elasticity > 1: Elastic, <1: Inelastic, = 1: Unitary elastic
Elasticity of Variables
Thank you