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An Analysis of Capital Market Development between Muslim and non-Muslim Countries
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Transcript of An Analysis of Capital Market Development between Muslim and non-Muslim Countries
Islamic Capital Markets
FN5630
Project Paper: An Analysis of Capital Market
Development between Muslim and non-Muslim
Countries
(Group 2)
Prepared for: Prof. Dr. Obiyathulla Ismath Bacha
Prepared by: Murhasniyah Mukhtar (0800754)
Thaqif b. Kamaruzdin(1100286)
Mirra Nabila Mohd Sukri (1200045)
2
Introduction
The capital market serves to facilitate the real sector economy by intermediating, a transfer
of funds between surplus units (investors/savers) to deficit units (real economic/business sector)
in the most effective and efficient manner1 by mobilizing savings and investments2. It has been
found that a well-developed and efficient capital market can direct resources to its best destination
with efficacy leading to development of that economy3 capital accumulation itself has been found
to be significant to economic growth4 as it is the engine of economic growth.5
This paper attempts to evaluate 10 countries, 5 Muslim and 5 non-Muslim, in an attempt
to gauge their efforts thus far towards establishing a free, fair and transparent capital market. As a
Free market that is free from capital controls and government intervention will make the capital
market of that country more attractive to foreign capital6. It does however come at the cost of being
too exposed and at the mercy of foreign investors7 should the equity held by them be shorted in a
flight. It is up to each individual country to decide whether the advantages of capital market
liberalization such as, growth in economy, diversification and development being worth the
exposure risk8. A fair market according to the Efficient Market Hypothesis would be one that
reflects the “real asset price” because the information will cause any price distortion to be corrected
immediately.9 This efficiency is good for investor confidence as it reduces the possibility of
speculative attacks and over reactions to shocks. Also, a capital market that is free and fair is good
1 (Bacha & Mirakhor, 2013) 2 (Fama, 1969) 3 (Krichene, 2013) 4 (Harrod, 1939) 5 (Krichene, 2013) 6 (Edison, Lavine, Ricci, & Slok, 2002) (Pringle, 1989) 7 (Rodrik, 1998) 8 (Quinn, 1997) (Bhagwati, 1998 (May-June)) 9 (Fama, 1969)
3
for diversification of risk making portfolio management much more effective. A capital market
can only maintain freedom and fairness should there be transparency. Without which, would stem
the flow of reliable information being transmitted to asset prices within the capital market causing
asymmetry, which can lead to speculative attacks and reduce investor confidence. Also, without
transparency, businesses are prone to take advantage as possible agency cost will rise from a
divergence of the objectives of management and shareholders and the effect is that businesses may
undertake projects with lower NPV that may just benefit the management but not the
shareholders10. Ultimately, policies do matter, but they only are effective if they are enforced.
The results are presented below by comparing between pairs of Muslim vs. Non-Muslim
countries, between each respective group and within each group over the period of 5 years. A total
of 11 indicators have been identified in performing a thorough analysis on these countries capital
market. These indicators have been grouped to three groups which are free, fair and transparent in
accommodating information for the analysis (Appendix A). Some of these indicators have been
explained by more than one groups based on the definition of the free, fair and transparent
themselves and also the elements taken into account by World Bank when constructing data.
All data is standardized by using the base of 100 and the summation in each group is
obtained before rankings are assigned and graphs are plotted. Analysis would be done based on
the three groups of indicators which are free, fair and transparent to be compared to the impact on
capital market and economy as a whole.
10 (Myers & Majluf, 1984)
4
Pair Comparison
Turkey vs. Brazil
Comparing Brazil and Turkey, Brazil’s market capitalization is larger as compared to
Turkey. For the period of 2008 to 2012, investors and entrepreneurs enjoy a more free market and
better business environment in Brazil. However, in terms of fairness and transparency, Turkey
scores higher. Hence, we can see that a free market is very important in stimulating a bigger and
more developed capital markets.
The data shows that Brazil is not as fair and as transparent as Turkey, but with the strong
economic growth and powerful policies that have been maintained since the year of 2003
reinforces investors and entrepreneur’s confidence to invest and to get their companies listed in
Brazil’s capital market. Brazil immediate recovery from the 2008 financial crisis was due to good
governance and political response. The growth in 2010 is said as the strongest in two decades11
and Brazil currently is the world seventh wealthiest country12.
Over the five years, Brazil has undergone a massive surge of capital inflow. Abundant
global liquidity and a high interest-rate differential with developed economies have
contributed to these patterns13. Internal factors such as financial-market deepening, increases in
GDP per capita and improvement in regulatory quality have also helped to attract foreign
investors14. The real has appreciated steadily ever since Lula presidency driven by capital inflows
and international financial conditions except during the 2008 financial crisis. In an effort to limit
11 (OECD, 2011) 12The World Bank, 2013 13IMF, 2010 14 (D.Furceri, 2011)
5
the appreciation, the government had increased dollar reserves and introduced capital controls.15
The impact we can clearly see in market capitalization where there is vast reduction in 2011.
In case of Turkey, the market is less free based on the indicator measured and this
strengthens by the fact that Turkey previously is a state-directed economy which offers relatively
zero openness. After Prime Minister and then President turgutozal began to open up the economy,
Turkey suffers a distress period in its economy as a result of weak economic policies. Then, an era
of strong policies and framework took place brings Turkey to sustainable growth until current
account deficit in 2008 reduce the growth in economy.
Year 2008 onwards is showing a better trend in Turkey investment climate. After years of
low levels of foreign direct investment (FDI), Turkey succeeded in attracting $18.3 billion in net
FDI in 2008. Global market conditions reduced foreign capital inflows in 2009. Turkey attracted
$7.7 billion in net FDI in 2009. Inward FDI increased in 2010 to $9 billion. Rapid development of
privatization, EU accession negotiation, strong and stable growth and changes in services sector
contributed to this. Steps have been taken to improve its investment climate through administrative
streamlining, an end to foreign investment screening, and strengthened intellectual property
legislation. However, a number of disputes involving foreign investors in Turkey and certain
policies, such as high taxation and continuing gaps in the intellectual property regime, inhibit
investment. Turkey has a number of bilateral investment and tax treaties, including with the United
States, which guarantee free repatriation of capital in convertible currencies and eliminate double
taxation16. Based on the indicators, Brazil should improve the in terms of regulatory effectiveness,
15 (Michigan State University, 2011) 16 (Michigan State University, 2011)
6
regulatory quality while Turkey should pay attention to its political stability also voice and
accountability.
Malaysia-Thailand
Malaysia’s capital market is relatively large compared to its economy. It is supported by
government’s vision and comprehensive long-term planning. The market capitalization tripled in
the last 10 years and projected to double in the next 10 years. It is the ASEAN’s largest number of
listed companies and has achieved FTSE Advanced Emerging Market status and is the fastest
growing exchange in Asia. Malaysia is the Earliest in the region to implement corporate
governance reforms. Comprehensive regulatory framework provides excellent investor protection
and the financial sector in Malaysia17. Malaysian banks are well capitalized, conservatively
managed, and had no measurable exposure to the U.S. sub-prime market. The central bank
maintains a conservative regulatory environment, having prohibited some of the riskier assets in
vogue elsewhere. Malaysia maintains high levels of foreign exchange reserves and has relatively
little external debt.Malaysia ranked first in financial risk factor in the Swiss-based Institute for
Management Development World Competitiveness Yearbook 201118.
As one of the pioneers in Islamic capital market, Malaysia leads the global sukuk market.
With an inclusive framework and substantial efforts in innovating and commercialising Shariah
compliant product, Malaysia draws a distinction as an Islamic Financial Centre. Capital control
will always be the issue when dealing with Malaysia. This control which has long been
discontinued is still become the terrifying elements to investor to invest in Malaysia as it is now
presumed that Malaysia is less free and Fair. The wrong policy implemented can have far reaching
17 (Securities Commision, 2013) 18 (Securities Commision, 2013)
7
implication as Malaysia is yet to achieve the same capitalization it did before 1997’s Asian
Financial Crisis and the subsequent capital controls.
The financial market in Thailand is relatively small compared to world markets. The stock
market has been growing steadily the last ten years resulting in the growth four times of its market
capitalization compared to GDP. U.S. monetary policy rate raises the U.S. interest rate, in turn,
pushes the return on the U.S. denominated asset up. This causes foreign investors to liquidate their
Thai equity investments and move their funds back to invest in the U.S. fixed income security.
The process depresses equity prices in Thailand19. This is a good example of the bad implications
effects of being Free for a small economy.
An internal factor such as political instability has greatly hindered stock market
development. The governance and policy implementation as well as supervision all suffer and are
not able to be executed as the government continuous to grapple with administrative turmoil. This
disorder affects investor and prospective investor to lay their wealth in Thailand because of the
instability and lack of Transparency. This is one of the reasons why Malaysia is doing better than
is neighbor.
According to world bank data Malaysia’s stock market has more depth than Thailand, a
significant factor to consider due to the opportunities of diversification are better in Malaysia.
Malaysia also scores higher in freedom, fairness and transparent environment indicator. Even
though Thailand is quite well known for its business fostering environment, political stability
issues have affected the economy, and indirectly stock market, adversely. Malaysia manages to be
ranked higher by The World Bank based on the strong framework and ambitious, frontward
19 (Techarongrojwong, 2012)
8
government plans and the execution. Both countries show an upward trend in market
capitalization, freedom, fairness and transparent indicators, showing that these countries’ capital
markets are developing concerning their government development programs, investors’
confidence and market stability.
Egypt-India
Egypt continuous to experience domestic instability and continued political uncertainty as
a result of the ongoing volatile political and economic transition period. This depresses tourism
revenues and foreign investment, both of which are important sources of foreign exchange. Despite
efforts to make the economy more market-oriented, socialist policies continue, limiting Freedom
and Fairness with barely any transparency. Any investor would be wary of such an investment
climate. Much-needed improvements in economic policy have been delayed, and the effectiveness
of reforms that might have helped to open markets and improve productivity has been undercut by
the fragile rule of law and the legacy of Egypt’s socialist past. Deeper institutional reforms are
critically needed to spur lasting economic growth and development. Those reforms include
strengthening of the judicial system, better protection of property rights, and more effective action
against growing corruption20.
India scores larger in terms of freedom, fairness and transparency mainly because of the
Middle East political turmoil. With the strong economic growth, India is able to sustain financial
as well as capital market development. Even Indian government is shrouded by corruption problem
that heavily impacts on Fairness and Transparency, the framework formation and implementation
in financial market seems to be improved. The India’s institutional shortcomings continue to
20 (Egypt, 2013)
9
undermine the foundations for long-term economic development. In the absence of a well-
functioning legal and regulatory framework, corruption throughout the economy is becoming a
more serious drag on the emergence of a more dynamic private sector. The state’s presence in the
economy remains extensive through state-owned enterprises and wasteful subsidy programs that
result in chronically high budget deficits21. However, as compared to Egypt, India provides better
environment based on the data. It is because political turmoil is so devastating that it could spoil
the whole economy stability, growth and sustainability which of course give adverse impact to the
capital market and the institutionalized indicators as well as market confidence.
Indonesia-Vietnam
By looking at the market capitalization of Indonesia, we can spot the difference that
Indonesia is particularly larger in market cap and the economy. Many businesses and investors
noted that Indonesia is well-known of its large population and plenty natural resources. But, far
fewer understand how rapidly the nation of the world’s 16th largest economy is growing. Indonesia
is booming thanks largely to a combination of domestic consumption and productivity growth.
Indonesia has an attractive value proposition. Over the past 20 years, labor productivity
improvements, largely from specific sectors rather than a general shift out of agriculture, have
accounted for more than 60 percent of the country’s economic growth. Productivity and
employment have risen in tandem in 35 of the past 51 years. And unlike typical Asian “tiger”
economies, Indonesia’s has grown as a result of consumption, not exports and manufacturing. The
archipelago nation is also urbanizing rapidly, boosting incomes22.
21 (India, 2013) 22 (Oberman, Dobbs, Budiman, Thompson, & Rossé, 2012)
10
During the past quarter century, Vietnam has emerged as one of Asia’s great success
stories. In a nation once ravaged by war, the economy has posted annual per capita growth of 5.3
percent since 1986—faster than any other Asian economy apart from China. Vietnam has benefited
from a program of internal restructuring, a transition from the agricultural base toward
manufacturing and services, and a demographic dividend powered by a youthful population. The
country has also prospered since joining the World Trade Organization, in 2007, normalizing trade
relations with the United States and ensuring that the economy is consistently ranked as one of
Asia’s most attractive destinations for foreign investors23.
After the WTO accession, Vietnam experienced a severe turmoil by having to absorb
excessive liquidity in the market due to financial crisis 2008. It drives assets prices to strike and
inflation to be peaking up24. The government then implements tight monetary and fiscal policy to
address the crisis impact which results in slumped in its free indicators group. For fairness and
transparency group of indicators, Indonesia scores higher according to the World Bank Data. This
can be explained by the development took by the government and past political history.
Iran-South Africa
Iran overdependence on oil sector, inefficient state sector and sanction put Iran’s economy
under the struggle. Although an announcement is issued in July 2006 to privatize 80% of the shares
of most government-owned companies, private sector activity is typically limited to small-scale
workshops, farming, and the service industry. As a result of inefficiencies in the economy,
significant informal market activity flourishes and shortages of goods are common. A combination
of price controls and subsidies continues to weigh down the economy, while administrative
23 (Breu, Dobbs, & Remes, 2012) 24 (Van, 2009)
11
controls and widespread corruption undermine the potential for private-sector-led growth.
Inflation and the unemployment rate continue to be in the double digits. Widespread
underemployment amongst Iran’s educated youths has convinced many to seek employment
overseas25.
The Government of South Africa demonstrated its commitment to open markets,
privatization, and a favorable investment climate. South Africa's budgetary reforms such as the
Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and the Public Finance Management Act have created
transparency and predictability and are widely acclaimed. South Africa has a sophisticated
financial structure with a large and active stock exchange that ranks 17th in the world in terms of
total market capitalization. Quantitative credit controls and administrative control of deposit and
lending rates have largely disappeared helping to form a freer market. South African banks adhere
to the Bank of International Standards core standards.The South African Government has taken
steps to gradually reduce remaining foreign exchange controls, which apply only to South African
residents. During 2007, the shareholding threshold (the percentage of shareholding that must be
South African) for foreign direct investment outside Africa was lowered from 50% to 25% to
enable South African companies to engage in strategic international partnerships. In addition,
South African companies involved in international trade were permitted to operate a single
Customer Foreign Currency (CFC) account for all international transactions. Permission was also
granted to the Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE) to establish a rand currency futures market,
in order to deepen South Africa’s financial markets and increase liquidity in the local foreign
exchange market26.
25 (Michigan State University, 2013) 26 (Michigan State University, 2013)
12
As a result, we can see a vast difference between South Africa an Iran because of the
government initiatives. South Africa scores higher in freedom, fairness and transparency indicators
reflecting the environment in the country for investment and business which affected capital
market and showed in the market capitalization for both countries. As for Iran, the tension in the
international diplomatic relationships affects its capital market adversely.
Between Group Comparison
Market capitalization of Muslims countries seems to be lower compared to non-Muslims
countries. However, the market capitalization which is used to represent the capital markets in the
Muslims countries are less volatile as we can see from the result of 2008 financial crisis. In 2010,
the market cap for non-Muslims Countries average fall 25% due to the concern of contagion effect
from European debt crisis. The market crash like the Flash Crash 2:45 in the futures market caused
a spill-over impact in the stock market. Even the situation recover within minutes the stock markets
took longer period to recover from the crash and only experienced partial rebound. Most
importantly, it is not the time consumed to bring back the markets to its original level, but the panic
and dropping of investors’ confidence that last longer. This event took place in the States and effect
major market within a very short period of time. The Muslims countries which has smaller market
cap and less dependency on derivatives markets are affected less severely by this event.
In August 2011, Standard & Poor’s downgraded the US credit rating from AAA to AA+.
The US has been graded AAA since 1941. For the first time, the grade has fell down to AA+ and
according to Standard & Poor’s it can be lower than AA+ besides Moody’s also state a concern
that there could be possible downgrading on the government credit ratings. Severe volatility in
stock markets continues for the rest of the year again because of the European sovereign credit
13
crisis. This causes losses to both Muslims countries as well as non-Muslims countries markets.
However, the Muslims countries face less severe impact compared to non-Muslims countries
because of the size of market trading and market capitalization in relation with the losses.
Over the five years generally, non-Muslims countries experience better markets in aspects of
freedom, fairness and transparency. In 2012, we observe a huge increase in Muslims Countries
market. A lot of improvements in regulations and governments policies bring the markets towards
a more transparent market where we can see a closer convergence between Muslims and non-
Muslims countries. The development in the markets shows an augmented increase in the fairness
of the markets which results in the continuous escalation of market capitalization.
Within Group Comparison
From the data, it is noticeable that Malaysia stands out among other Muslims countries.
This can be explained by the freedom, fairness and transparency indicators measurement where
Malaysia scores higher as compared to others. This is driven by the government vision and
comprehensive long term planning, putting Malaysia as an international financial center. The
capital market is also expected to be further driven by Malaysia’s push for greater
internationalization and liberalization of its financial sector. This would bolster capital market
growth by an additional 30% in the projected size of RM4.5 trillion (US$1.5 trillion) to RM5.8
trillion (US$1.93 trillion) by 2020 with exponential benefits to Malaysia’s bond and sukuk market
segments. Bursa Malaysia, the Malaysian securities exchange, has well balanced participation with
trade values that are equally distributed among retail, domestic institutional and foreign
institutional participants. Malaysia also has the largest number of listed companies in ASEAN,
populating both the Main Market and ACE Market in Bursa Malaysia. With a comprehensive ICM
14
framework and successful track record in innovating and commercializing many Shariah
compliant products, Malaysia has established itself as an Islamic financial center27.
As for non-Muslims countries, South Africa has highest scores in institutional indicators
as measured by the World Bank. The country has the most free, fair and transparent market among
the non-Muslims countries. Across Africa there is a major focus on improving transparency and
strengthening the governance and regulatory framework in the sector. Although few countries have
opted to introduce Basel III yet, Basel II is being considered in a number of countries and
consolidation in the market could follow as capital requirements are increased in line with new
regulation. In South Africa a Twin Peaks regulatory framework will be implemented in the next
year. The Global Regulatory Reform agenda as agreed at the G20 is gaining momentum with South
African banks (Africa's largest banking market, with close on $500bn in assets) having to comply
with the Basel III principles and an increased focus on areas like Recovery and Resolution planning
(Living Wills), Treating Customers Fairly (TCF) and a renewed focus on executive
remuneration28.
In the case of Malaysia, we can see direct relationship between institutional factors with
market cap size. Malaysia’s market cap is the largest among Muslims Countries. South Africa also
has the highest market cap as compared to the country’s GDP as a result of freer, fairer and more
transparent market. In both cases, governments play an important role in pushing capital markets
to a respectable level in the world. We can conclude that institutional factor based on the indicators
measured, are the contributing aspect for capital market development.
It seems that the biggest problem facing Muslim markets is the political stability and lack
of governance in enforcing regulation and policies besides Malaysia, the best of the Muslim
27 (Securities Commision, 2013) 28 ( Ernst & Young, 2013)
15
countries. Not to mention Egypt and that seems to suffer from la lack of coherent and prudential
policies. Whereas the non-Muslim countries seem to be liberalizing their markets and gaining form
the benefits of increased investment. South Africa seems to be leading the pack of 5 with the best
improvements to becoming more free, fair and transparent. Vietnam serves as an example of a
country that is moving in the correct direction but also the dangers of liberalizing too quickly. Even
though Brazil loses to Turkey in terms of fairness and transparency its freeness helps it be in the
favor of investors and seems to be moving to overtake if they have the correct policies and
governance to drive a fair and transparent capital market.
Conclusions
The capital market is one of the most important vehicles in economy by playing the
function to channel the surplus unit to the deficit unit29.Numerous studies30 have been conducted
and concluded that capital market development leads to economic development. In this context, it
is very crucial to have an efficient government in upbringing the best policy creation and
implementation, fostering a significance market and investment environment growth as well as
utilizing potential for economic development.
In the discussion 11 indicators that have been grouped to 3 areas of free, fair and transparent
(Refer Methodology in Appendix A), and then analyzed to distinguish the impact on current
government policy and initiatives towards the capital markets.
From the analysis we can see that Malaysia stands out of Muslims countries in terms of
market freedom, fairness and transparency according to the indexes and ratings that Malaysia
29 (Bacha & Mirakhor, 2013) 30 (Edison, Lavine, Ricci, & Slok, 2002) (Bosworth & Collins, 1999)
16
scores which shows the efforts taken by the government generally. The evidence can be observed
in the market capitalization of Malaysia which is higher compared to other Muslims countries in
the group despite the issue of confidence in Malaysia market due to the capital control imposed
which has been discontinued many years back. In fact, Malaysian vision in being the international
Islamic financial center and putting efforts in the skilled labor creation, platforms formation
pioneering, policies and regulations conception should be acknowledge as noble pace towards
having a steadfast Islamic finance.
Meanwhile, South Africa is the most prominent market based on the indicators which also
shows that South African government is taking decent effort in promoting and developing the
capital market in the country. Besides the income inequalities, South African government is doing
a good job by liberalizing international trade and relationships, strengthens in financial industry
and authority and implement policies which can be drive its capital market forward.
However, Muslims countries capital markets have shown that a lot of lacking needs to be
address in our plans and policies direction in the future. The fact is Muslims countries capital
market is much smaller in size as compared to non-Muslims countries. Let alone Islamic capital
markets where not all Muslim countries have established even if the policies are outlined to do so.
Mostly Muslim countries suffer form to a lack of expertise, infrastructure and support from the
government, proper policy direction and coherence, transparency and political issues. There then
seems to be a long way before the Muslim countries can establish an international Islamic Financial
Market. An objective very desirable in promoting cross border trade and economic development
amongst the Ummah.
17
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