An analysis of B.C.’s Climate Leadership Plan

December 5, 2016

Table of Contents •  Collaboration •  Purpose •  Methods

–  Approach –  Scenarios –  Assumptions

•  Results –  Greenhouse Gas Emissions –  Abatement –  Renewable Energy

•  Conclusion and Next Steps

2

Collaboration

Commissioned

3

Purpose

•  Our aim is to determine and make publicly available: •  A reference case on provincial carbon pollution to 2050 •  Provincial carbon pollution with climate leadership plan policies and the

federal carbon price floor to 2050 •  Sector by sector emissions and compare with the climate leadership plan to

2050 •  Renewable energy and energy efficiency for both the reference case and

under the climate leadership plan and federal carbon price •  We also would like to support next steps with the province

4

Methods - Approach

Navius CIMS/GEEM model (based on Clean Energy Canada analysis)

Reference Scenario

Climate Leadership Plan

and Federal Carbon Floor

Price •  Annual carbon pollution •  Sector emissions •  Energy use and type

5

Methods - Scenarios

Reference Scenario •  Existing policies including:

•  Carbon tax $30 t/CO2eq •  Clean Energy Act – 93% non-emitting

sources •  Low-carbon fuel standard, 10% by

2020 •  Existing building codes •  Clean Energy Vehicle Program @ $5000

per vehicle, to 2020 •  LNG performance standard – met at

the facility •  Landfill Gas •  45% diversion organic waste by 2020 •  Federal light and heavy duty vehicle

standard

Climate Leadership Plan & Fed. Price •  Existing policies, plus:

•  Carbon tax $50 by 2022 •  45% methane emission reduction •  Low-carbon fuel standard increased to

15% by 2030 •  Regulations that require more efficient

natural gas equipment •  Net-zero ready building standard after

2032 •  Upstream natural gas electrification •  Industrial boilers post 2020 90% efficient •  90% diversion of organics by 2030 •  Extend clean energy vehicle program to

2030 and incentives for freight natural gas

•  100% clean energy on incremental additions

6

Methods - Assumptions

•  Forestry: Deforestation, afforestation and forest management activities are not included in the model, but we do include the B.C. government’s estimates of these activities in 2050.

•  LNG: LNG production reaches 12 MT/yr in 2020, 36 MT/yr in 2025 and 48 MT/yr in 2030

•  Natural Gas: •  Natural gas production for LNG comes 75% from B.C. 25% from Alberta •  Natural gas production rises to 5.4 bcf/day in 2020 and plateaus at 9.1

bcf/day •  Natural gas production not for LNG remains flat at 4.2 bcf/day •  Methane losses account for 0.5% of natural gas production

•  Other excluded policies •  Carbon neutral government – Model can’t account for commitments •  Federal clean fuel standard – Announced after final drafts & insufficient

detail

7

Results – Carbon Pollution

Referencecase

CLP&federalcarbonprice

BC2020target

-30%from2005,basedonfederaltarget

BC2050target

CLP&federalcarbonpricewithforestryabatement

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Ann

uale

mission

sinM

tCO2e

53 MT GAP

41 MT GAP

8

Results – Carbon Pollution

01020304050607080

2020 2030 2040 2050

Referenc

eem

ission

s,

MtC

O2e

/yr

Buildings Transport IndustryandUtilities(excludinggas) NGandLNG

01020304050607080

2020 2030 2040 2050

CLP&fe

deralcarbo

nprice

emission

sMtC

O2e

/yr

9

Results – Reductions relative to reference case

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2020 2030 2040 2050

CLP&fe

deralcarbo

npriceab

atem

entinMtC

O2e

Buildings Transport IndustryandUtilities(excludinggas) NGandLNG

10

Results – Comparison between climate leadership plan and this analysis - 2050

  Climate Leadership Plan (MTCO2eq)

This Analysis (MTCO2eq)

NG & LNG 5.0 4.0Industry & Utilities 2.0 2.9Transport 3.0 1.0Buildings 2.0 2.7TOTAL 12.0 10.6

11

Results – Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency

36% 44%

55% 62%

64% 56%

45% 38%

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2,400

2,800

Referencecase,2030 CLP&federalcarbonprice,2030

Referencecase,2050 CLP&federalcarbonprice,2050

Ener

gy C

onsu

mpt

ion

in P

J

FossilFuel

Renewable

12

Conclusion and Next Steps

•  Emissions continue to grow: Emissions are expected to grow from today out to 2030, by 8 MTCO2eq excluding potential forestry sequestration.

•  Reduction gap: There remains a 53 MTCO2eq gap in 2050, 41 MTCO2eq if government estimates of forest sequestration are included

•  Fossil fuels remain dominant: Fossil fuel use remains 56% of energy supply in 2030.

•  Next steps – policy details and new actions: •  Existing commitments in the climate leadership plan require details and

funding and implementation •  Additional action is needed to reduce emissions in-line with B.C. legislated

2050 target •  Going forward, PICS, Pembina and Clean Energy Canada are committed to

supporting the development and implementation of these next steps.

13

Contacts

Sybil Seitzinger – PICSDir@uvic.ca Matt Horne – matth@pembina.org Jeremy Moorhouse – jeremy@cleanenergycanada.org

14

Climate Plan and Our Analysis Sector Policy Coverage

Sector CLP Policies This analysis policies

Natural gas and LNG

Methane, upstream natural gas electrification

Methane, upstream natural gas electrification

Industry & Utilities Energy efficiency gas boilers, incentives gas equipment, 100% RE electricity

Energy efficiency gas boilers, 100% RE electricity, waste strategy

Buildings Energy efficient building equipment, net-zero ready buildings, waste strategy

Energy efficient building equipment, net-zero ready buildings

Transportation LCFS, Clean Energy Vehicle Program, LNG ferries, NG freight,

LCFS, Clean Energy Vehicle Program, LNG ferries and renewable NG freight

15