An agriculturalist's operational research career perspective
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Transcript of An agriculturalist's operational research career perspective
An agriculturalist’s Operational Research perspective
Daniel Sandars; BSc(Hons.), 2xMSc, AFORS, MIAgrM:CEnv
6th February 2015
Environmental QuantificationThe LCA Concept
The Environment
ProductionSystem
Functional Unit
Natural Resources
Manufactured Inputs
Emissions & wastes
Boundarye.g. 1 kg Pig carcass or
1 kg bread wheat
e.g. ammonia, carbon dioxide
e.g. fertiliser, machinery, structures
e.g. minerals, fossil energy, land
Co-products, e.g. straw, manure
Cradle to grave is fullest application of LCA
Production
Processing
Distribution
Consumption / use
Disposal
Each step has is own set of inputs and outputs, like the production stage
Farm gate
globalwarming
ozone depletion
N2O, CH4
acidification
drainageNutrientOverload
Metals NO3-
Runoff
BOD, PO43+
deposition
ammonia
pathogensodours
Best environmental options?
Slurry tankers
Standard splash-plate spreader
Over-the-fence broadcast spreader
Low trajectory splash-plate
spreader
Trailing pipe/shoe Sub-soil shallow injection spreader
Controlling the N
-0.020
-0.015
-0.010
-0.005
0.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Abatement of digestate NH3 landspreading losses
t/kt
Weste
rn E
uro
pean
Im
pacts
Global Warming Normal
Acidification Normal
Eutrophication Normal
Fig. 6.6 LCA predictions of the overall effects abating ammonia losses from land spreading of
digestate on Global Warming, Acidification and Eutrophication, each normalised with respect to current Western European environmental emissions inventory (Anon, 2005)
Where does Agric. OR fit in?
EA 300502/ ./17
Detailed process modelling
Macro-economics
Complex system and decision system models
Day
AnimalPlant
HerdCrop
RegionFarm EuropeNation
Year
Month
Week
Decade
Control
Tactical
PolicyStrategic
Additional resources
• Plà, L.M., Sandars, D.L., Higgins, A.J. A perspective on operational research prospects for agriculture (2014) Journal of the Operational Research Society, 65 (7), pp. 1078-1089. http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v65/n7/abs/jors201345a.html
• Audsley, E., Sandars, D.L. A review of the practice and achievements from 50 years of applying OR to agricultural systems in Britain OR Insight (2009) 22, 2–18. doi:10.1057/ori.2008.1 http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ori/journal/v22/n1/full/ori20081a.html
• Linear programming– Dantzig, George B. (1990). "The Diet Problem". Interfaces 20 (4):
43–7. doi:10.1287/inte.20.4.43 http://resources.mpi-inf.mpg.de/departments/d1/teaching/ws14/Ideen-der-Informatik/Dantzig-Diet.pdf
Soils and Weather
Workable hours
Profitability (or loss)
Crop and livestock outputs
Environmental Impacts
Possible crops, yields, maturity dates, sowing dates
Silsoe Whole Farm ModelLinear programme, important features timeliness penalties, rotational penalties, workability per task, uncertainty
Machines and people
Constraints and penalties
Heavy clay, 800 mm annual rainfall
0
50
100
150
200
250
Ho
urs
Sandy loam, 500 mm annual rainfall
-
50
100
150
200
250
Ho
urs
Workable hours v. tractor hours
Period, fortnights Period, fortnights
Low gross margin crop
(Sown spring, harvested September)
£370/ha versus £600-750/ha
Crop X
WRape
SBarley
WBarley
WWheat
Nitrate leaching scenarios on an arable sandy loam farm: crop areas; profit; N leaching and N use
Profit = £456/ha
N leach = 56.4 kg/ha
N use = 123.7 kg/ha
£430/ha
55.7 kg/ha
100 kg/ha
£433/ha
44.9 kg/ha
168.5 kg/ha
• N restricting policy increases Nitrate leaching - more spring crops increasing over-winter leaching• To decrease N leaching, grow crops which use the N applied efficiently
Base N < 100kg/ha Opt Profit + N leach WW
WB
SB
WR
WBn
RS
Pots
SBt
Peas
SR
SBn
More legumes. No Oilseed rape
No legumes. No Oilseed rape
Urban Crop yields
Forestry
Flooding
Rural land allocation
Hydrology
Biodiversity
Pests & diseases
Water use
Snow cover
Water availability
Climate & socio-economic scenarios