AMSR3/DFS Joint Research and Operational Users Working Group Meeting Tokyo, Japan - 20 April 2009...

AMSR3/DFS Joint Research and Operational Users Working Group Meeting

Tokyo, Japan - 20 April 2009

Requirements for Mid and High Latitude Applications

Joe SienkiewiczNOAA / NWS Ocean Prediction Center, Camp Springs, Maryland



NOAA Forecast ResponsibilityNOAA Forecast Responsibility

High Seas Warning CategoriesGALE – 34-47 knots Force 8/9STORM – 48-63 knots Force 10/11HURRICANE FORCE - >64 knots Force 12



NOAA Ocean Prediction Center – impact on operations

QuikSCAT Forecasters use every pass to: make warning and short-term forecast decisions and to estimate - cyclone location, intensity, extent of wind field - strength and extent of orographically enhanced jets - wind field near strong SST

gradientsResulted in improved warning and forecast services over otherwise data sparse oceans



QuikSCATIncreased awareness of the high frequency of

hurricane force (HF) winds in extratropical cycloneskts

Intense, non-tropical cyclone with hurricane force windsFeb 23, 2008, North Pacific



119

23

14

24 23

15

22

37

33 3134

64

51

39

49

0

10

20

30

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60

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Cyclones

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

Atlantic

Pacific

QuikSCAT Launch Jun 99

Hurricane Force Wind WarningInitiated Dec 00

12.5 km QuikSCATavailable May 04

25 km QuikSCATAvailable in N-AWIPS

Oct 01

Improved wind algorithm and rain flag Oct 06

CyclonesObserved

244235

2001-2008 HF Cyclone ClimatologyNumber of cyclones

WARNINGCATEGORIES

Pre- QSCAT1. GALE 34-47 kt1. GALE 34-47 kt2. STORM >48

QSCAT ERA1. GALE 34-47 kt1. GALE 34-47 kt

2. STORM 48 -63 kt3. HURCN FORCE

> 64 kt



7yr Average Monthly Distribution

0

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Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

Month

ave

rag

e n

um

be

r o

f H

F c

yclo

ne

s 7

yrs

Atlantic

Pacific

2001-2008 HF Cyclone Climatology



Geographic distribution of cyclones with winds of HF intensitySep-May 2000-2007 Annual average number of cyclones with hurricane force winds

for the years 2001 - 2008

Major Shipping RoutesNorth Atlantic4,000/yr container transits1,000/yr bulkers


Average geographic distribution of cyclones with hurricane force winds for the years 2001 - 2008



Geographic distribution of cyclones with winds of HF intensitySep-May 2000-2007

Major Shipping RoutesNorth Pacific6,000/yr container1,500/yr bulker


Average geographic distribution of cyclones with hurricane force winds for the years 2001 - 2008



Application of University of Washington Planetary Boundary Layer Model- QuikSCAT wind field used to define pressure gradient

- Seed gradient field with observationsto anchor SLP fieldForecasters use QuikSCAT based SLP to estimate: - cyclone intensity - depiction of SLP gradient Results in improved Surface Analyses

Sea-Level Pressure Retrievals



Wind gradients near SST gradients

-Winds speeds reflect SST gradients-Calculate NWP and QSCAT difference-Apply 30 day bias based on PBLstratification

GOES / OISST SST





GOES SST gradients





QuikSCAT 12.5 km winds





Difference between QuikSCATand NCEP GFS 10 m winds-GOES SST gradient-Green GFS underforecast-Orange GFS overforecast



Arctic Services• Support for USCG Hamilton on Arctic Mission Sep 2008

• Ocean Surface Vector Winds (QuikSCAT / ASCAT)

– Only source to yield complete picture– complement with ice detection capabilities– coverage optimized for high latitudes



Summary – Mid-High Latitudes• QuikSCAT revolutionized warning and

short-term forecast process– Resulting in improved services

• Forecasters possess superior situational awareness over data sparse oceans– Hurricane Force cyclones– SLP retrievals– SST gradients– Ice free Arctic waters– Orographically induced jets



What we hope to gain from DFSAccurate estimates of:• maximum winds of Hurricane Force intensity• radii of 34, 48, and 64 knots with extratropical cyclones • winds in areas of rain such as: squall lines, convective

complexes, warm fronts• low pressure center locations and intensity using SLP retrievals• wave generation areas using great circle rays

With AMSR - coincident measurements of multiple parameters

• Rain, cloud liquid water, water vapor, Sea surface temperature, and full wind vector

AMSR3/DFS Joint Research and Operational Users Working Group Meeting Tokyo, Japan - 20 April 2009...

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