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![Page 1: AMPS— Moving into the Next Phase Background AMPS’s Next Phase— Plans Future Possibilities AMPS Users’ Workshop 2004 10 June.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062519/5697c0291a28abf838cd777b/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
AMPS— Moving into the Next Phase
Background
AMPS’s Next Phase— Plans
Future Possibilities
www.mmm.ucar/rt/mm5/amps
AMPS Users’ Workshop 200410 June 2004
Jordan G. PowersMesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division, NCAR
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I. Background
Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) At-a-glance
NCAR & Polar Met. Group, BPRC, The Ohio State Univ.
Plus: SPAWAR contributions
Real-time, high-resolution mesoscale model over Antarctica (since 2000): “Polar MM5”
Support of Antarctic forecasting and science operations
Tailored to needs of
(1) SPAWAR forecasters and the USAP
(2) international community
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Phase 2 Goals
October 2002–September 2004 (current phase)
New Data Assimilation Capability: 3DVAR
– 3-Dimensional Variational data assimilation
Polar Physics Development
Ex: Upper boundary condition
Verification
– Seasonal forecast verification
– SOM (Self-Organizing Map) study
AMPS Users’ Workshops
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Phase 2: Additional Gains
10-km Antarctic Peninsula grid
Expansion in international support
Scientific field activity support
GLOBEC (Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics)
NASA P3 Pine Island Bay operations(flights investigating calving glaciers)
Archive-derived climatologies for Raytheon support
Rescues: Flight Assistance
September 2003 (South Pole medevac) April 2004 (McMurdo medevac)
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II. AMPS’s Next Phase— Plans
Next Phase: October 2004–September 2006
Implementation of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)
Enhanced Grids
Ex: 30 km Antarctica grid 20 km grid
NB: Dependent on computing hardware
Data assimilation
– Explore new approaches: Ensemble Kalman Filter
– New data sources E.g: COSMIC GPS radio occultations (2006)
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New Physics
– Blowing snow parameterization
– Cloud-radiation interaction: representation of downwelling longwave radiation
– Treatment of horizontal pressure-gradient force
Verification
– Evaluation of new physics
– Analysis of event performance
Climatological Database
– Web-based tool to allow compilation of climatology of locations, using archive
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Assistance to International Antarctic Activities
Italy (PRNA) Terra Nova Bay
British Antarctic Survey Rothera
Germany Neumayer
Australia . Casey, Davis, Mawson (Bureau of Met.)
South African (S.A. Weather Service)
Russia Novolazarevskaya
Japan Syowa
Chile Eduardo Frei
Norway Troll
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36h WRF Precip Forecast
Analyzed Precip
27 Sept. 2002Hurricane Isidore
• Designed for both research and operational applications
• Extensive use for real-time forecasting
• Registered users as of June 1, 2004: 845
• WRF Partner/Collaborators
– NCAR– NOAA National Centers for Environmental
Prediction– NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory
– Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA)– Federal Aviation Administration– Naval Research Laboratory
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model
10 km WRF
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WRF Frontal Forecast 24-hr WRF fcst: Valid 00 UTC 25 October 2001 (12-km grid)
WRF vertically-integrated cloud water IR imagery
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WRF AMPS Test Forecast 72-hr WRF fcst: Valid 12 UTC 17 Nov 2003 (30-km grid)
SLP interval= 4 mb SLP interval= 4 mb
WRFMM5
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III. Future Possibilities
Application of New Verification/Analysis Techniques
Field Campaign Support
Enhanced International Collaborations and SPAWAR Involvement
Eduardo Frei Stn.
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Applications of Kinetic Energy Spectra from AMPS Real-Time Verification System
Power spectra of wind and computed from aircraft data
(Nastrom and Gage 1985)
k-3 and k-5/3 power curvesshown
GASP data(Global Atmospheric Sampling Program)
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AMPS Kinetic Energy Spectra
Spectra computed from u, v, w through ~525–237 mb layer
Hr. 24 Fcst init: 1200 UTC 3 Sept 2003Grid x indicated
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Spectra for 10-km and 3.3-km AMPS gridsHr. 24 Fcst init:00 UTC 03 Sept 2003
100
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400 hPa height and wind speed on 10-km AMPS grid
Hr. 24 Fcst init:00 UTC 03 Sept 2003
Height (m)Interval=10 m
Wind speed (m/s)Interval= 2.5 m/s
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10-km AMPS Spectra (Hr 24)
Area / subarea of domain indicated
– Spectral analysis may illuminate effects of high-resolution grids traditional error statistics might not reveal
– Application of high-res grids over Antarctica may improve representation of the variance of tropospheric flows
(i) Better reproduction of observed power laws on the mesoscale
(ii) Greater power variance on the mesoscale
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Planned AWS sitesPlanned radiosonde sites
New AWS sitesSouth Pole traverse route
RIME Supersite
Siple Dome / Onset Delta
Roosevelt Island
Franklin Island
Planned AWS sitesPlanned radiosonde sites
New AWS sitesSouth Pole traverse route
RIME Supersite
Siple Dome / Onset Delta
Roosevelt Island
Franklin Island
Field Campaign Support
1) Antarctic RIME: Antarctic Regional Interactions Meteorology Experiment (A-RIME)
Planned measurement sites forRIME instrumentation deployments. A few existing AWSs shown as small green circles. (Many AWSs not shown.)
Field phases: Dec. ’06– Jan. ’07Dec. ’07– Feb. ’08Sept. ’08–Feb. ’09
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– Pre- A-RIME Studies
Analysis of AMPS archive for instrument siting and information for logistical issues
Case studies to identify meteorology issues for exploration in A-RIME
– A-RIME Logistics
Special AMPS products and windows
Ex: Ferrell close-up coverage,time series & soundings for A-RIME points
Higher-resolution experimental grid(s)
Ex: 1-km one-way nests (e.g., Ross Air Stream)
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Field Campaign Support (cont’d)
2) ANTCI: Antarctic Tropospheric Chemistry Experiment
First field phase: Nov.–Dec. 2005
Twin Otter flights to sample PBL
– AMPS Support
Flight forecasting and specialized products
Model datasets for event analysis
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ANTCI Flights: Yellow areas: focused on sulfur species; Green areas: focused on reactive nitrogen compounds; Blue areas: focused on both.
McMurdo
South Pole
AGO 2
AGO 4
Beardmore
Moody Nun
TAMSEIS Camp
Refueling sites (possible locations)
Deployment sites
Sulfur study areas
Reactive Nitrogen study areas
Both Sulfur and Reactive Nitrogen study areas
McMurdo
South Pole
AGO 2
AGO 4
Beardmore
Moody Nun
TAMSEIS Camp
Refueling sites (possible locations)
Deployment sites
Sulfur study areas
Reactive Nitrogen study areas
Both Sulfur and Reactive Nitrogen study areas
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Future Possibilities (cont’d)
Enhanced International Cooperation and Support
– Contributions to/collaborations in AMPS operations
– Involvement of COMNAP in support of AMPS (?)
(Council of Managers of National Antarctic Programs)
SPAWAR Involvement
– Participation in AMPS operations during field seasons
– Establishment of AMPS liaison
Ex: Product coordinator
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Summary
AMPS next phase (2004–2006) planning in progress
Implementation of new model for AMPS: WRF
Improved system capabilities
– Polar physics development
– Data assimilation improvement
Strengthen Antarctic observational–forecasting–modeling operational & research collaborations, including international efforts